000
AXNT20 KNHC 231750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N50W TO 07N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND
IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN
45W-51W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 04N29W TO 03N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N-12N BETWEEN 16W-21W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN
21W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN
35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL MODERATELY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE REGIME IN PLACE A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 28N87W. ON THE SOUTHERNWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL IN THE
RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATELY DRY AIR OVER A
NARROW AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 15N70W. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME TO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS MERGED INTO THE
SEMI-PERMANENT LOW-LEVEL COLOMBIAN GYRE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HOWEVER S OF 14N
BETWEEN 75W-81W...AND S OF 11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. FARTHER EAST...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N74W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. E-SE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE ISLAND WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING TO THE EAST OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF
72W AND THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERALL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND
BY SATURDAY SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LIE ACROSS THE ISLAND
PROVIDING FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
TO A BASE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE NE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LIE N OF 25N OFF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W AND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W AND INTO
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NEAR 24N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N59W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-72W.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
30N54W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W
OF 46W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W TO 28N40W TO 25N45W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 48N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N50W TO 07N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND
IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN
45W-51W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 04N29W TO 03N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N-12N BETWEEN 16W-21W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN
21W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN
35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL MODERATELY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE REGIME IN PLACE A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 28N87W. ON THE SOUTHERNWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL IN THE
RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATELY DRY AIR OVER A
NARROW AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 15N70W. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME TO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS MERGED INTO THE
SEMI-PERMANENT LOW-LEVEL COLOMBIAN GYRE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HOWEVER S OF 14N
BETWEEN 75W-81W...AND S OF 11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. FARTHER EAST...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N74W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. E-SE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE ISLAND WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING TO THE EAST OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF
72W AND THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERALL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND
BY SATURDAY SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LIE ACROSS THE ISLAND
PROVIDING FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
TO A BASE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE NE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LIE N OF 25N OFF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W AND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W AND INTO
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NEAR 24N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N59W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-72W.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
30N54W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W
OF 46W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W TO 28N40W TO 25N45W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 48N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N50W TO 07N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND
IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN
45W-51W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 04N29W TO 03N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N-12N BETWEEN 16W-21W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN
21W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN
35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL MODERATELY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE REGIME IN PLACE A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 28N87W. ON THE SOUTHERNWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL IN THE
RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATELY DRY AIR OVER A
NARROW AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 15N70W. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME TO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS MERGED INTO THE
SEMI-PERMANENT LOW-LEVEL COLOMBIAN GYRE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HOWEVER S OF 14N
BETWEEN 75W-81W...AND S OF 11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. FARTHER EAST...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N74W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. E-SE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE ISLAND WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING TO THE EAST OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF
72W AND THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERALL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND
BY SATURDAY SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LIE ACROSS THE ISLAND
PROVIDING FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
TO A BASE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE NE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LIE N OF 25N OFF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W AND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W AND INTO
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NEAR 24N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N59W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-72W.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
30N54W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W
OF 46W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W TO 28N40W TO 25N45W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 48N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N50W TO 07N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND
IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN
45W-51W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 04N29W TO 03N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N-12N BETWEEN 16W-21W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN
21W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN
35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL MODERATELY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE REGIME IN PLACE A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 28N87W. ON THE SOUTHERNWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL IN THE
RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATELY DRY AIR OVER A
NARROW AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 15N70W. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME TO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS MERGED INTO THE
SEMI-PERMANENT LOW-LEVEL COLOMBIAN GYRE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HOWEVER S OF 14N
BETWEEN 75W-81W...AND S OF 11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. FARTHER EAST...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N74W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. E-SE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE ISLAND WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING TO THE EAST OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF
72W AND THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERALL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND
BY SATURDAY SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LIE ACROSS THE ISLAND
PROVIDING FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
TO A BASE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE NE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LIE N OF 25N OFF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W AND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W AND INTO
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NEAR 24N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N59W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-72W.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
30N54W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W
OF 46W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W TO 28N40W TO 25N45W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 48N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231622
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 06.5N74.5W TO
13N87.5W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N103W 1009 MB TO 08.5N118W...WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 09N123W TO 11.5N133W
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 78W AND 86W...AND WITHIN 210
NM N AND 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90
NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S AND 180 NM N
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 129W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A GENERALLY RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THE TWO RIDGES ARE S OF
22N-24N AND SPAN BETWEEN 120W AND 144W...AND BETWEEN 70W AND
126W RESPECTIVELY...AND CONTINUE TO VENTILATE DEEP TROPICAL
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROF AND ITCZ DESCRIBED
ABOVE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
IS MOVING E-SE AND SLOWLY DIVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH PREVAILING BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...BETWEEN 110W AND
120W...AND HAS ERODED MODESTLY W PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN-MOST
RIDGE. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO END TONIGHT WHILE THE TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
THE TWO UPPER RIDGES AMPLIFY.

AT LOW LEVELS...EPAC SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF
110W...CENTERED ON A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 41N143W...WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES
INDICATED MINIMAL N-NW GALES CONTINUING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH FRESH N TO NE WINDS SPILLING S AND SW
INTO NORTH PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 24N. NORTHERLY
SWELL GENERATED WITHIN THIS REGION OF WINDS CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE S AND SE...AND WAS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT ACROSS
THE AREA N OF 24N...WITH HIGHEST SEAS WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WERE LOCATED ACROSS SW PORTIONS...
PROPAGATING WWD AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ AT
133W. A MODEST REGION OF FRESH NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE N
OF THIS WAVE AND ARE PRODUCING SEAS 8-9 FT. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE W AND EXIT THE AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS IT PASSES
DIRECTLY S OF THE EPAC HIGH...WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20-
25 KT.

E OF 110W...MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS AND IS
PRODUCING CONVERGENCE OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INVOF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS REVEALED
A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION...NOW CURRENTLY INVOF 10N104W. A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THERE NEAR 10.5N103W...WITH MOST
CONVECTION NOW FLARING TO THE S AND SW OF THIS LOW. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR SLOW AND GRADUAL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

FARTHER E...LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTED
CENTERED INVOF 08N87W. S TO SW MONSOONAL WINDS PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS LOCATION...BUT AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS W OVER THE
WEEKEND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W
CARIBBEAN BY THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL
INDUCE GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EPAC.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE FAVORABLE LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP AND GROW ACROSS THIS AREA AS IT
SHIFTS WWD AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND
TEHUANTEPEC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PRESENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE
STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH THE GFS MODEL
DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS AREA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

LONG PERIOD CROSS HEMISPHERIC SW SWELL AT 17-19 SECONDS IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN COASTS.
OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED THAT WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 FT TOO LOW IN ITS FORECAST OF THIS SWELL.
EXPECTED SW SWELL AND ADDITIONAL PULSES TO DOMINATE THE AREA
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PRODUCING STRONG AND DANGEROUS
SURF ACROSS THE COASTS AND REEFS OF THE AREA COASTLINES.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231622
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 06.5N74.5W TO
13N87.5W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N103W 1009 MB TO 08.5N118W...WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 09N123W TO 11.5N133W
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 78W AND 86W...AND WITHIN 210
NM N AND 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90
NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S AND 180 NM N
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 129W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A GENERALLY RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THE TWO RIDGES ARE S OF
22N-24N AND SPAN BETWEEN 120W AND 144W...AND BETWEEN 70W AND
126W RESPECTIVELY...AND CONTINUE TO VENTILATE DEEP TROPICAL
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROF AND ITCZ DESCRIBED
ABOVE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
IS MOVING E-SE AND SLOWLY DIVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH PREVAILING BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...BETWEEN 110W AND
120W...AND HAS ERODED MODESTLY W PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN-MOST
RIDGE. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO END TONIGHT WHILE THE TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
THE TWO UPPER RIDGES AMPLIFY.

AT LOW LEVELS...EPAC SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF
110W...CENTERED ON A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 41N143W...WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES
INDICATED MINIMAL N-NW GALES CONTINUING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH FRESH N TO NE WINDS SPILLING S AND SW
INTO NORTH PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 24N. NORTHERLY
SWELL GENERATED WITHIN THIS REGION OF WINDS CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE S AND SE...AND WAS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT ACROSS
THE AREA N OF 24N...WITH HIGHEST SEAS WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WERE LOCATED ACROSS SW PORTIONS...
PROPAGATING WWD AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ AT
133W. A MODEST REGION OF FRESH NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE N
OF THIS WAVE AND ARE PRODUCING SEAS 8-9 FT. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE W AND EXIT THE AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS IT PASSES
DIRECTLY S OF THE EPAC HIGH...WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20-
25 KT.

E OF 110W...MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS AND IS
PRODUCING CONVERGENCE OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INVOF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS REVEALED
A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION...NOW CURRENTLY INVOF 10N104W. A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THERE NEAR 10.5N103W...WITH MOST
CONVECTION NOW FLARING TO THE S AND SW OF THIS LOW. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR SLOW AND GRADUAL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

FARTHER E...LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTED
CENTERED INVOF 08N87W. S TO SW MONSOONAL WINDS PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS LOCATION...BUT AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS W OVER THE
WEEKEND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W
CARIBBEAN BY THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL
INDUCE GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EPAC.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE FAVORABLE LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP AND GROW ACROSS THIS AREA AS IT
SHIFTS WWD AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND
TEHUANTEPEC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PRESENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE
STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH THE GFS MODEL
DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS AREA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

LONG PERIOD CROSS HEMISPHERIC SW SWELL AT 17-19 SECONDS IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN COASTS.
OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED THAT WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 FT TOO LOW IN ITS FORECAST OF THIS SWELL.
EXPECTED SW SWELL AND ADDITIONAL PULSES TO DOMINATE THE AREA
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PRODUCING STRONG AND DANGEROUS
SURF ACROSS THE COASTS AND REEFS OF THE AREA COASTLINES.

$$
STRIPLING

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231139
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231139
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N47W TO EQ49W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPT
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120/150 EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 2N-6N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 42W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 82W S OF 13N ACROSS PANAMA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
11N BETWEEN 80W AND THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N27W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROF E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
IVORY AND GRAIN COASTS OF AFRICA...WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
8N15W TO 1N27W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH DIPS S FROM SE GEORGIA TO OVER NE FLORIDA GENERATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W
AND SE SURFACE FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE SW GULF WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NE GULF LATE FRI THEN E OF THE GULF SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 14N79W TO E
PANAMA NEAR 8N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO AND FROM OVER
JAMAICA TO E CUBA BETWEEN 75W-79W.  W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH
SUN. ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVIE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
THROUGH TONIGHT INCREASING WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE
AND PUERTO PLATA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N79W
OVER THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N60W TO FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N40W TO 27N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. WEAK COLD FRONT
ENTER NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT E ACROSS WATERS N OF 26N THROUGH
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N47W TO EQ49W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPT
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120/150 EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 2N-6N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 42W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 82W S OF 13N ACROSS PANAMA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
11N BETWEEN 80W AND THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N27W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROF E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
IVORY AND GRAIN COASTS OF AFRICA...WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
8N15W TO 1N27W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH DIPS S FROM SE GEORGIA TO OVER NE FLORIDA GENERATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W
AND SE SURFACE FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE SW GULF WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NE GULF LATE FRI THEN E OF THE GULF SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 14N79W TO E
PANAMA NEAR 8N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO AND FROM OVER
JAMAICA TO E CUBA BETWEEN 75W-79W.  W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH
SUN. ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVIE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
THROUGH TONIGHT INCREASING WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE
AND PUERTO PLATA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N79W
OVER THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N60W TO FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N40W TO 27N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. WEAK COLD FRONT
ENTER NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT E ACROSS WATERS N OF 26N THROUGH
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM NICARAGUA AT 12N86W TO
13N99W...THEN SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
10.5N101.5W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING WSW TO 08N120W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ AXIS FORMS. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS NW TO 11N132W WHERE THE REMNANT TROUGH OF FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN IS ANALYZED FROM 03N137W TO 13N133W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF 08N120W...AND 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N86W
TO 09N114W. SIMILAR CONVECTION HAS FORMED S OF THE ITCZ
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N127W TO 12N133W.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 10.5N101.5W
WILL MOVE W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TO NEAR 10N103W
TONIGHT...NEAR 11N104W ON THU NIGHT AND NEAR 10N107W ON FRI
NIGHT BUT NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH INTO THE EPAC LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL HELP SPAWN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N87W
BY EARLY FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
LOW FORMING AND MOVING SLOWLY W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND DEVELOPS THE LOW INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. I BLENDED AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE LATEST
GFS INTO THE PREVIOUS PACIFIC GRIDS...WHICH IN TURN CONSISTED OF
A GFS AND ECMWF BLEND. I TONED DOWN THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
CONSERVATIVELY TO A SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 09N93W LATE
SUN...NEAR 11N95W LATE MON...AND NEAR 13N96W LATE TUE WITH
CYCLONIC WINDS THEN AT 20-30 KT...WITH MAX SEAS TO ABOUT 18 FT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI
NIGHT AND PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE DRAINAGE
WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL LOW TO THE S. EXPECT MANY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N136W TO 18N112W.
NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS CURRENTLY AT 4-5 FT
EXCEPT 5-6 FT NEAR THE SOUTHERN TOP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA PER A
RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N LATER
TODAY...AND REACH AS FAR S AS 25N ON FRI.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 24-30N BETWEEN 116W-140W WITH SEAS MAXING
AT 12-13 FT IN THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL ACROSS THE AREA FROM
28-30N BETWEEN 118-124W. NOTE THAT N WINDS ARE AT 20-25 KT
IN THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 30-32N BETWEEN 118-125W...WITH
SEAS 13-15 FT. ALTHOUGH N WINDS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE...THE N SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL PROPAGATE S
TO ALONG 10N W OF 115W BY LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
FROM THE NW ON SAT.

NE TRADES CONTINUE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
REMNANT TROUGH OF ALVIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY W REACHING FROM 11N140W TO 15N135W TONIGHT AND
SHIFT W OF 140W ON FRI.

$$
NELSON

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM NICARAGUA AT 12N86W TO
13N99W...THEN SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
10.5N101.5W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING WSW TO 08N120W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ AXIS FORMS. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS NW TO 11N132W WHERE THE REMNANT TROUGH OF FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN IS ANALYZED FROM 03N137W TO 13N133W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF 08N120W...AND 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N86W
TO 09N114W. SIMILAR CONVECTION HAS FORMED S OF THE ITCZ
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N127W TO 12N133W.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 10.5N101.5W
WILL MOVE W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TO NEAR 10N103W
TONIGHT...NEAR 11N104W ON THU NIGHT AND NEAR 10N107W ON FRI
NIGHT BUT NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH INTO THE EPAC LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL HELP SPAWN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N87W
BY EARLY FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
LOW FORMING AND MOVING SLOWLY W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND DEVELOPS THE LOW INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. I BLENDED AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE LATEST
GFS INTO THE PREVIOUS PACIFIC GRIDS...WHICH IN TURN CONSISTED OF
A GFS AND ECMWF BLEND. I TONED DOWN THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
CONSERVATIVELY TO A SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 09N93W LATE
SUN...NEAR 11N95W LATE MON...AND NEAR 13N96W LATE TUE WITH
CYCLONIC WINDS THEN AT 20-30 KT...WITH MAX SEAS TO ABOUT 18 FT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI
NIGHT AND PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE DRAINAGE
WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL LOW TO THE S. EXPECT MANY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N136W TO 18N112W.
NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS CURRENTLY AT 4-5 FT
EXCEPT 5-6 FT NEAR THE SOUTHERN TOP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA PER A
RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N LATER
TODAY...AND REACH AS FAR S AS 25N ON FRI.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 24-30N BETWEEN 116W-140W WITH SEAS MAXING
AT 12-13 FT IN THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL ACROSS THE AREA FROM
28-30N BETWEEN 118-124W. NOTE THAT N WINDS ARE AT 20-25 KT
IN THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 30-32N BETWEEN 118-125W...WITH
SEAS 13-15 FT. ALTHOUGH N WINDS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE...THE N SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL PROPAGATE S
TO ALONG 10N W OF 115W BY LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
FROM THE NW ON SAT.

NE TRADES CONTINUE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
REMNANT TROUGH OF ALVIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY W REACHING FROM 11N140W TO 15N135W TONIGHT AND
SHIFT W OF 140W ON FRI.

$$
NELSON

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM NICARAGUA AT 12N86W TO
13N99W...THEN SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
10.5N101.5W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING WSW TO 08N120W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ AXIS FORMS. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS NW TO 11N132W WHERE THE REMNANT TROUGH OF FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN IS ANALYZED FROM 03N137W TO 13N133W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF 08N120W...AND 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N86W
TO 09N114W. SIMILAR CONVECTION HAS FORMED S OF THE ITCZ
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N127W TO 12N133W.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 10.5N101.5W
WILL MOVE W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TO NEAR 10N103W
TONIGHT...NEAR 11N104W ON THU NIGHT AND NEAR 10N107W ON FRI
NIGHT BUT NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH INTO THE EPAC LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL HELP SPAWN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N87W
BY EARLY FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
LOW FORMING AND MOVING SLOWLY W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND DEVELOPS THE LOW INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. I BLENDED AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE LATEST
GFS INTO THE PREVIOUS PACIFIC GRIDS...WHICH IN TURN CONSISTED OF
A GFS AND ECMWF BLEND. I TONED DOWN THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
CONSERVATIVELY TO A SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 09N93W LATE
SUN...NEAR 11N95W LATE MON...AND NEAR 13N96W LATE TUE WITH
CYCLONIC WINDS THEN AT 20-30 KT...WITH MAX SEAS TO ABOUT 18 FT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI
NIGHT AND PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE DRAINAGE
WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL LOW TO THE S. EXPECT MANY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N136W TO 18N112W.
NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS CURRENTLY AT 4-5 FT
EXCEPT 5-6 FT NEAR THE SOUTHERN TOP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA PER A
RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N LATER
TODAY...AND REACH AS FAR S AS 25N ON FRI.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 24-30N BETWEEN 116W-140W WITH SEAS MAXING
AT 12-13 FT IN THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL ACROSS THE AREA FROM
28-30N BETWEEN 118-124W. NOTE THAT N WINDS ARE AT 20-25 KT
IN THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 30-32N BETWEEN 118-125W...WITH
SEAS 13-15 FT. ALTHOUGH N WINDS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE...THE N SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL PROPAGATE S
TO ALONG 10N W OF 115W BY LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
FROM THE NW ON SAT.

NE TRADES CONTINUE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
REMNANT TROUGH OF ALVIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY W REACHING FROM 11N140W TO 15N135W TONIGHT AND
SHIFT W OF 140W ON FRI.

$$
NELSON

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM NICARAGUA AT 12N86W TO
13N99W...THEN SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
10.5N101.5W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING WSW TO 08N120W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ AXIS FORMS. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS NW TO 11N132W WHERE THE REMNANT TROUGH OF FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN IS ANALYZED FROM 03N137W TO 13N133W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF 08N120W...AND 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N86W
TO 09N114W. SIMILAR CONVECTION HAS FORMED S OF THE ITCZ
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N127W TO 12N133W.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 10.5N101.5W
WILL MOVE W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TO NEAR 10N103W
TONIGHT...NEAR 11N104W ON THU NIGHT AND NEAR 10N107W ON FRI
NIGHT BUT NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH INTO THE EPAC LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL HELP SPAWN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N87W
BY EARLY FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
LOW FORMING AND MOVING SLOWLY W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND DEVELOPS THE LOW INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. I BLENDED AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE LATEST
GFS INTO THE PREVIOUS PACIFIC GRIDS...WHICH IN TURN CONSISTED OF
A GFS AND ECMWF BLEND. I TONED DOWN THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
CONSERVATIVELY TO A SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 09N93W LATE
SUN...NEAR 11N95W LATE MON...AND NEAR 13N96W LATE TUE WITH
CYCLONIC WINDS THEN AT 20-30 KT...WITH MAX SEAS TO ABOUT 18 FT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI
NIGHT AND PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE DRAINAGE
WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL LOW TO THE S. EXPECT MANY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N136W TO 18N112W.
NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS CURRENTLY AT 4-5 FT
EXCEPT 5-6 FT NEAR THE SOUTHERN TOP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA PER A
RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N LATER
TODAY...AND REACH AS FAR S AS 25N ON FRI.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 24-30N BETWEEN 116W-140W WITH SEAS MAXING
AT 12-13 FT IN THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL ACROSS THE AREA FROM
28-30N BETWEEN 118-124W. NOTE THAT N WINDS ARE AT 20-25 KT
IN THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 30-32N BETWEEN 118-125W...WITH
SEAS 13-15 FT. ALTHOUGH N WINDS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE...THE N SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL PROPAGATE S
TO ALONG 10N W OF 115W BY LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
FROM THE NW ON SAT.

NE TRADES CONTINUE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
REMNANT TROUGH OF ALVIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY W REACHING FROM 11N140W TO 15N135W TONIGHT AND
SHIFT W OF 140W ON FRI.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N45W TO EQ48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W/82W S OF 13N ACROSS PANAMA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF LIBERIA AND GUINEA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 20W-
25W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK
1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W AND SE
SURFACE FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N W OF 95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 85W INCLUDING S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THU. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIRT NE GULF LATE FRI THEN
DRIFT E THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-80W AND IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E
OF 69W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N
W OF 86W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH SUN. ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVIE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THU NIGHT
INCREASING WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND THU.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
ISLAND. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
EVIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE FAR W ATLC
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMAS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 74W-79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR N OF 25N
W OF 79W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N61W TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N41W TO
25N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. WEAK COLD FRONT ENTER NW
PORTION FRI AND DRIFT E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N45W TO EQ48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W/82W S OF 13N ACROSS PANAMA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF LIBERIA AND GUINEA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 20W-
25W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK
1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W AND SE
SURFACE FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N W OF 95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 85W INCLUDING S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THU. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIRT NE GULF LATE FRI THEN
DRIFT E THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-80W AND IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E
OF 69W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N
W OF 86W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH SUN. ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVIE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THU NIGHT
INCREASING WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND THU.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
ISLAND. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
EVIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE FAR W ATLC
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMAS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 74W-79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR N OF 25N
W OF 79W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N61W TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N41W TO
25N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. WEAK COLD FRONT ENTER NW
PORTION FRI AND DRIFT E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230300
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO 11N90W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 10N102W 1009 MB TO 09N114W TO 07N130W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AXIS...AND CONTINUES TO 11N132W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-87W...WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
127W-129W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 117W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
AT 42N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N135W TO 25N126W AND CONTINUING SE TO NEAR 21N121W. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ASSOCIATED NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT SEEP S INTO
THE AREA TO N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W-124W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 9-
11 FT RANGE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF  ORMER
T.S. ALVIN ARE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM NEAR 09N136W
TO 13N130W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT WINDS FROM
ROUGHLY 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 130W-136W...WHERE SEAS ARE TO 9 FT.
OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE AREA W OF 120W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 8 FT IN MIXED
NORTHERLY AND SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE 1032 MB HIGH WILL
SLIDE W THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER THE TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NE OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS N
OF 13N W OF 117W BY EARLY FRI EVENING WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED
N AND NE SWELL. THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ALVIN WILL MOVE TO JUST W
OF THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE AREA.

MONSOONAL FLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 110W...WITH MODERATE SW TO W WINDS
EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA E OF ABOUT 110W AND IS
PRODUCING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI WHILE
SHIFTING WWD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EVENTUALLY A LOW PRES
SYSTEM MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS AREA. PRESENTLY...A WEAK 1009 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 10N102W WITH PRES OF 1009
MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO
12N BETWEEN 103W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 08N101W TO
08N103W. THE LOW REMAINS UNDER UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT
TRACKS W TO NW DIRECTION.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
0400 UTC AND HAS IMPACTED THE FULL SUITE OF IMAGERY AVAILABLE
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC THU MAY 23.

$$
AGUIRRE

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230300
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO 11N90W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 10N102W 1009 MB TO 09N114W TO 07N130W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AXIS...AND CONTINUES TO 11N132W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-87W...WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
127W-129W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 117W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
AT 42N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N135W TO 25N126W AND CONTINUING SE TO NEAR 21N121W. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ASSOCIATED NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT SEEP S INTO
THE AREA TO N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W-124W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 9-
11 FT RANGE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF  ORMER
T.S. ALVIN ARE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM NEAR 09N136W
TO 13N130W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT WINDS FROM
ROUGHLY 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 130W-136W...WHERE SEAS ARE TO 9 FT.
OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE AREA W OF 120W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 8 FT IN MIXED
NORTHERLY AND SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE 1032 MB HIGH WILL
SLIDE W THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER THE TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NE OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS N
OF 13N W OF 117W BY EARLY FRI EVENING WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED
N AND NE SWELL. THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ALVIN WILL MOVE TO JUST W
OF THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE AREA.

MONSOONAL FLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 110W...WITH MODERATE SW TO W WINDS
EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA E OF ABOUT 110W AND IS
PRODUCING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI WHILE
SHIFTING WWD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EVENTUALLY A LOW PRES
SYSTEM MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS AREA. PRESENTLY...A WEAK 1009 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 10N102W WITH PRES OF 1009
MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO
12N BETWEEN 103W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 08N101W TO
08N103W. THE LOW REMAINS UNDER UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT
TRACKS W TO NW DIRECTION.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
0400 UTC AND HAS IMPACTED THE FULL SUITE OF IMAGERY AVAILABLE
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC THU MAY 23.

$$
AGUIRRE

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230012 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

CORRECTED ATLC SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N80W TO 07N81W MOVING W AT 10 TO 13
KT. THIS WAVE IS CLEARLY DETECTABLE IN THE 700 MB WIND
STREAMLINES OF THE GFS MODEL AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR MAXIMUM TO MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE VICINITY
OF ITS AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 14N
BETWEEN 74W AND 84W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N43W TO 02S45W MOVING W AT 5 TO 7
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AND
COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF NEAR TO MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM 0N TO 06N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 02N30W TO 01N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN
34W AND 41W...AND FROM 06S TO 00N BETWEEN 22W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N84W.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 89W
AND 92W. THE AXIS OF A OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. THIS
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 29N80W TO 25N81W TO 24N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. MAINLY S-SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR THE REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
NW TO THE N CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND AT THE SURFACE TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES W OF 68W WHILE TRADEWINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT SPREAD E OF
THAT MERIDIAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W WHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO OBSERVED. EAST OF 70W...NEAR WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK TROUGH DOMINATE. MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING ADVECTED TO THIS REGION
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE E
PACIFIC BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE EXTENDING TO LA HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED TO THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLAND WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. E-
SE TRADEWINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...CORRECTED
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N80W TO 28N80W AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO KEY WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE
TO HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE W ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 29N W OF 75W. OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N IS
SUPPORTING THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N40W
TO 26N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED N OF 28N BETWEEN 34W
AND 37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230012 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

CORRECTED ATLC SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N80W TO 07N81W MOVING W AT 10 TO 13
KT. THIS WAVE IS CLEARLY DETECTABLE IN THE 700 MB WIND
STREAMLINES OF THE GFS MODEL AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR MAXIMUM TO MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE VICINITY
OF ITS AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 14N
BETWEEN 74W AND 84W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N43W TO 02S45W MOVING W AT 5 TO 7
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AND
COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF NEAR TO MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM 0N TO 06N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 02N30W TO 01N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN
34W AND 41W...AND FROM 06S TO 00N BETWEEN 22W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N84W.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 89W
AND 92W. THE AXIS OF A OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. THIS
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 29N80W TO 25N81W TO 24N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. MAINLY S-SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR THE REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
NW TO THE N CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND AT THE SURFACE TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES W OF 68W WHILE TRADEWINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT SPREAD E OF
THAT MERIDIAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W WHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO OBSERVED. EAST OF 70W...NEAR WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK TROUGH DOMINATE. MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING ADVECTED TO THIS REGION
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE E
PACIFIC BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE EXTENDING TO LA HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED TO THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLAND WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. E-
SE TRADEWINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...CORRECTED
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N80W TO 28N80W AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO KEY WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE
TO HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE W ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 29N W OF 75W. OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N IS
SUPPORTING THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N40W
TO 26N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED N OF 28N BETWEEN 34W
AND 37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N80W TO 07N81W MOVING W AT 10 TO 13
KT. THIS WAVE IS CLEARLY DETECTABLE IN THE 700 MB WIND
STREAMLINES OF THE GFS MODEL AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR MAXIMUM TO MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE VICINITY
OF ITS AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 14N
BETWEEN 74W AND 84W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N43W TO 02S45W MOVING W AT 5 TO 7
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AND
COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF NEAR TO MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM 0N TO 06N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 02N30W TO 01N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN
34W AND 41W...AND FROM 06S TO 00N BETWEEN 22W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N84W.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 89W
AND 92W. THE AXIS OF A OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. THIS
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 29N80W TO 25N81W TO 24N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. MAINLY S-SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR THE REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
NW TO THE N CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND AT THE SURFACE TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES W OF 68W WHILE TRADEWINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT SPREAD E OF
THAT MERIDIAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W WHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO OBSERVED. EAST OF 70W...NEAR WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK TROUGH DOMINATE. MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING ADVECTED TO THIS REGION
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE E
PACIFIC BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE EXTENDING TO LA HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED TO THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLAND WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. E-
SE TRADEWINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N80W TO 28N80W AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO KEY WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE
TO HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE W ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N TO 27N W OF 77W. OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N IS
SUPPORTING THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N40W
TO 26N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED N OF 28N BETWEEN 34W
AND 37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N80W TO 07N81W MOVING W AT 10 TO 13
KT. THIS WAVE IS CLEARLY DETECTABLE IN THE 700 MB WIND
STREAMLINES OF THE GFS MODEL AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR MAXIMUM TO MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE VICINITY
OF ITS AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 14N
BETWEEN 74W AND 84W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N43W TO 02S45W MOVING W AT 5 TO 7
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AND
COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF NEAR TO MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM 0N TO 06N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 02N30W TO 01N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN
34W AND 41W...AND FROM 06S TO 00N BETWEEN 22W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N84W.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 89W
AND 92W. THE AXIS OF A OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. THIS
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 29N80W TO 25N81W TO 24N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. MAINLY S-SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR THE REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
NW TO THE N CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND AT THE SURFACE TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES W OF 68W WHILE TRADEWINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT SPREAD E OF
THAT MERIDIAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W WHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO OBSERVED. EAST OF 70W...NEAR WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK TROUGH DOMINATE. MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING ADVECTED TO THIS REGION
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE E
PACIFIC BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE EXTENDING TO LA HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED TO THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLAND WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. E-
SE TRADEWINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N80W TO 28N80W AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO KEY WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE
TO HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE W ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N TO 27N W OF 77W. OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N IS
SUPPORTING THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N40W
TO 26N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED N OF 28N BETWEEN 34W
AND 37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N80W TO 07N81W MOVING W AT 10 TO 13
KT. THIS WAVE IS CLEARLY DETECTABLE IN THE 700 MB WIND
STREAMLINES OF THE GFS MODEL AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR MAXIMUM TO MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE VICINITY
OF ITS AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 14N
BETWEEN 74W AND 84W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N43W TO 02S45W MOVING W AT 5 TO 7
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AND
COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF NEAR TO MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM 0N TO 06N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 02N30W TO 01N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN
34W AND 41W...AND FROM 06S TO 00N BETWEEN 22W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N84W.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 89W
AND 92W. THE AXIS OF A OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. THIS
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 29N80W TO 25N81W TO 24N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. MAINLY S-SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR THE REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
NW TO THE N CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND AT THE SURFACE TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES W OF 68W WHILE TRADEWINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT SPREAD E OF
THAT MERIDIAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W WHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO OBSERVED. EAST OF 70W...NEAR WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK TROUGH DOMINATE. MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING ADVECTED TO THIS REGION
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE E
PACIFIC BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE EXTENDING TO LA HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED TO THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLAND WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. E-
SE TRADEWINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N80W TO 28N80W AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO KEY WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE
TO HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE W ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N TO 27N W OF 77W. OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N IS
SUPPORTING THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N40W
TO 26N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED N OF 28N BETWEEN 34W
AND 37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N80W TO 07N81W MOVING W AT 10 TO 13
KT. THIS WAVE IS CLEARLY DETECTABLE IN THE 700 MB WIND
STREAMLINES OF THE GFS MODEL AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR MAXIMUM TO MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE VICINITY
OF ITS AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 14N
BETWEEN 74W AND 84W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N43W TO 02S45W MOVING W AT 5 TO 7
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AND
COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF NEAR TO MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM 0N TO 06N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 02N30W TO 01N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN
34W AND 41W...AND FROM 06S TO 00N BETWEEN 22W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N84W.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 89W
AND 92W. THE AXIS OF A OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. THIS
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 29N80W TO 25N81W TO 24N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. MAINLY S-SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR THE REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
NW TO THE N CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND AT THE SURFACE TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES W OF 68W WHILE TRADEWINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT SPREAD E OF
THAT MERIDIAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W WHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO OBSERVED. EAST OF 70W...NEAR WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK TROUGH DOMINATE. MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING ADVECTED TO THIS REGION
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE E
PACIFIC BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE EXTENDING TO LA HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED TO THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLAND WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. E-
SE TRADEWINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AXIS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N80W TO 28N80W AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO KEY WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE
TO HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE W ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N TO 27N W OF 77W. OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N IS
SUPPORTING THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N40W
TO 26N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED N OF 28N BETWEEN 34W
AND 37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO 11N91W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 11N101W 1009 MB TO 09N119W TO 07N120W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AXIS...AND CONTINUES TO 11.5N131W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-91W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-121W...WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-125W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 126W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-133W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 135W-137W

...DISCUSSION...

A 1032 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
AT 42N142W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N135W TO 25N126W AND CONTINUING SE TO NEAR 21N121W. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ASSOCIATED NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT SEEP
S INTO THE AREA TO N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W-124W WHERE SEAS ARE
IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF
FORMER T.S. ALVIN ARE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM NEAR
09N136W TO 13N130W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AND THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT
WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W...WHERE SEAS
ARE TO 9 FT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 8
FT IN MIXED NORTHERLY AND SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE 1032 MB
HIGH WILL SLIDE W THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER THE TIGHT GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20
KT OR LESS N OF 16N BETWEEN 113W-134W...AND ALSO N OF 12N W OF
134W BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL.
THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ALVIN WILL MOVE TO JUST W OF THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE AREA.

MONSOONAL FLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 110W...WITH MODERATE SW TO W WINDS
EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA E OF ABOUT 110W AND IS
PRODUCING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI WHILE
SHIFTING WWD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EVENTUALLY A LOW PRES
SYSTEM MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS AREA. PRESENTLY...A WEAK 1009 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AT 11N101W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 12N103.5W TO
14N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION SW OF LOW EXISTS FROM 08.5N TO 11N
BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 99W-106W. THE
LOW IS CURRENTLY UNDER UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT TRACKS
W TO NW DIRECTION.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
0400 UTC AND HAS IMPACTED THE FULL SUITE OF IMAGERY AVAILABLE
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC THU MAY 23.

$$
AGUIRRE

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO 11N91W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 11N101W 1009 MB TO 09N119W TO 07N120W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AXIS...AND CONTINUES TO 11.5N131W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-91W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-121W...WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-125W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 126W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-133W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 135W-137W

...DISCUSSION...

A 1032 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
AT 42N142W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N135W TO 25N126W AND CONTINUING SE TO NEAR 21N121W. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ASSOCIATED NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT SEEP
S INTO THE AREA TO N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W-124W WHERE SEAS ARE
IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF
FORMER T.S. ALVIN ARE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM NEAR
09N136W TO 13N130W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AND THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT
WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W...WHERE SEAS
ARE TO 9 FT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 8
FT IN MIXED NORTHERLY AND SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE 1032 MB
HIGH WILL SLIDE W THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER THE TIGHT GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20
KT OR LESS N OF 16N BETWEEN 113W-134W...AND ALSO N OF 12N W OF
134W BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL.
THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ALVIN WILL MOVE TO JUST W OF THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE AREA.

MONSOONAL FLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 110W...WITH MODERATE SW TO W WINDS
EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA E OF ABOUT 110W AND IS
PRODUCING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI WHILE
SHIFTING WWD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EVENTUALLY A LOW PRES
SYSTEM MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS AREA. PRESENTLY...A WEAK 1009 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AT 11N101W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 12N103.5W TO
14N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION SW OF LOW EXISTS FROM 08.5N TO 11N
BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 99W-106W. THE
LOW IS CURRENTLY UNDER UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT TRACKS
W TO NW DIRECTION.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
0400 UTC AND HAS IMPACTED THE FULL SUITE OF IMAGERY AVAILABLE
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC THU MAY 23.

$$
AGUIRRE

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N44W TO 06N42W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ IN A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING BETWEEN 39W-47W. THIS AREA ALSO
COINCIDES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 06N38W TO 01N46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N80W TO 13N78W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. AS OF 22/1200 UTC...THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED FARTHER
WEST DUE TO FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE MOVEMENT OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY OF THE GFS 315K THETA FIELDS AND LOCATION AND MOVEMENT
OF GFS AND ECMWF 700 MB TROUGH AXES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N22W TO 04N30W TO 04N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 09W...AND FROM
02N-09N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF W
OF 85W WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING E-NE OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
31N93W TO ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-94W.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA S-SE
OVER THE LENGTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 24N77W. MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH S-SE WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 70W ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME N OF 15N
W OF 70W WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO
20 KT. THE EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-83W AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N NORTH OF PANAMA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS ALSO
INFLUENCING INCREASE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. EAST OF 72W...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE E-
SE TRADE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS SE TO
OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT REMAINS MAXIMIZED
OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE EAST WHILE E-SE TRADE
WINDS PERSIST AT THE SURFACE. A WIDE SWATH OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS NOTED ON IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES NORTHWEST TO BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE... THESE INGREDIENTS ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SW NORTH ATLC WATERS W OF 72W THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 70W-81W. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N59W. FARTHER EAST...A CENTRAL ATLC UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS LARGELY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
AXIS ALONG 42W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND EXTENDS SW TO
27N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA N
OF 28N BETWEEN 35W-43W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB
HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 50N23W.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
0400 UTC AND HAS IMPACTED THE FULL SUITE OF IMAGERY AVAILABLE
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC THU MAY 23.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N44W TO 06N42W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ IN A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING BETWEEN 39W-47W. THIS AREA ALSO
COINCIDES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 06N38W TO 01N46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N80W TO 13N78W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. AS OF 22/1200 UTC...THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED FARTHER
WEST DUE TO FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE MOVEMENT OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY OF THE GFS 315K THETA FIELDS AND LOCATION AND MOVEMENT
OF GFS AND ECMWF 700 MB TROUGH AXES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N22W TO 04N30W TO 04N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 09W...AND FROM
02N-09N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF W
OF 85W WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING E-NE OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
31N93W TO ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-94W.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA S-SE
OVER THE LENGTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 24N77W. MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH S-SE WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 70W ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME N OF 15N
W OF 70W WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO
20 KT. THE EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-83W AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N NORTH OF PANAMA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS ALSO
INFLUENCING INCREASE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. EAST OF 72W...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE E-
SE TRADE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS SE TO
OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT REMAINS MAXIMIZED
OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE EAST WHILE E-SE TRADE
WINDS PERSIST AT THE SURFACE. A WIDE SWATH OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS NOTED ON IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES NORTHWEST TO BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE... THESE INGREDIENTS ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SW NORTH ATLC WATERS W OF 72W THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 70W-81W. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N59W. FARTHER EAST...A CENTRAL ATLC UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS LARGELY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
AXIS ALONG 42W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND EXTENDS SW TO
27N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA N
OF 28N BETWEEN 35W-43W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB
HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 50N23W.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
0400 UTC AND HAS IMPACTED THE FULL SUITE OF IMAGERY AVAILABLE
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC THU MAY 23.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221609
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W TO
12.5N90W TO 13N100W TO 09.5N115W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 07.5N123W TO 11.5N131W TO 03.5N140W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 210 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 98W
AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 120W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 128W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ANCHORED ON A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 44N143W WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N116W. A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE N-NW
WINDS...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 132W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 10
FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ALSO DEPICTS THE ELONGATED
REMNANTS OF FORMER T.S. ALVIN EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE
VICINITY OF 134W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THIS
LOW PRESSURE ARE PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT
FROM ROUGHLY 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND 136W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8
TO 10 FT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 8
FT IN MIXED NORTHERLY AND SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SINK S DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
20-25 KT PUSHING A BIT FARTHER S INTO THE AREA TO 27.5N BETWEEN
118.5W AND 126W BY FRIDAY MORNING. N-NW TO N SWELL GENERATED
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PEAKING AT 12
TO 15 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WWD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A MODEST AREA OF NE WINDS 20-25
KT AND SEAS 8-9 FT WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NW.

MONSOONAL FLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 110W...WITH MODERATE SW TO W WINDS
EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 110W AND IS PRODUCING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG 80W-82W...STRADDLING CENTRAL AMERICA  AND
EXTENDING INTO BOTH THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO SHIFT W DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. FRESHENING GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SATURDAY WILL FLOW ACROSS THE
N AND INTO PORTIONS OF THIS WESTWARD MOVING FEATURE...AND COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO BAROTROPIC GROWTH AND INTENSIFICATION. FRESHENING
WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY
SUNDAY...AT WHICH TIME NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
FRESHEN THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
0400 UTC AND HAS IMPACTED THE FULL SUITE OF IMAGERY AVAILABLE
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC THU MAY 23.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221609
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W TO
12.5N90W TO 13N100W TO 09.5N115W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 07.5N123W TO 11.5N131W TO 03.5N140W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 210 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 98W
AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 120W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 128W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ANCHORED ON A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 44N143W WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N116W. A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE N-NW
WINDS...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 132W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 10
FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ALSO DEPICTS THE ELONGATED
REMNANTS OF FORMER T.S. ALVIN EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE
VICINITY OF 134W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THIS
LOW PRESSURE ARE PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT
FROM ROUGHLY 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND 136W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8
TO 10 FT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 8
FT IN MIXED NORTHERLY AND SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SINK S DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
20-25 KT PUSHING A BIT FARTHER S INTO THE AREA TO 27.5N BETWEEN
118.5W AND 126W BY FRIDAY MORNING. N-NW TO N SWELL GENERATED
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PEAKING AT 12
TO 15 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WWD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A MODEST AREA OF NE WINDS 20-25
KT AND SEAS 8-9 FT WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NW.

MONSOONAL FLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 110W...WITH MODERATE SW TO W WINDS
EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 110W AND IS PRODUCING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG 80W-82W...STRADDLING CENTRAL AMERICA  AND
EXTENDING INTO BOTH THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO SHIFT W DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. FRESHENING GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SATURDAY WILL FLOW ACROSS THE
N AND INTO PORTIONS OF THIS WESTWARD MOVING FEATURE...AND COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO BAROTROPIC GROWTH AND INTENSIFICATION. FRESHENING
WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY
SUNDAY...AT WHICH TIME NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
FRESHEN THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
0400 UTC AND HAS IMPACTED THE FULL SUITE OF IMAGERY AVAILABLE
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC THU MAY 23.

$$
STRIPLING

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N38W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR
4N39.5W TO 2N40W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90
NM OF LINE FROM 7N36W TO 4N43W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-18N
BETWEEN 66W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N29W TO 5N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 3N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA
E OF 7W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 10N-12N E OF 17W TO
THE W COAST OF AFRICA...AND FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 16W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS S MEXICO/W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR
MOBILE ALABAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH S TO SE RETURN
FLOW COVERING THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
FAR W GULF LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM S OF 26N E OF
83W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NE GULF LATE FRI THEN DRIFT SE THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO DIPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA NW
FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 11N83W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN W OF 80W AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDING NW OVER THE
W ATLC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE N OF
THE ISLAND IS MOVING E AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK
W. THIS COULD BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR W ATLC AMPLIFYING
AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA TO OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 74W-79W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 30N W OF 79W TO THE COAST OF
FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024
MB HIGH NEAR 32N59W TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A DYING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W TO 27N52W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 29N41W TO
BEYOND 32N39W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM
27N47W TO 24N50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF NE FLORIDA N OF GRAND BAHAMA THU. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT IN E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N
THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N38W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR
4N39.5W TO 2N40W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90
NM OF LINE FROM 7N36W TO 4N43W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-18N
BETWEEN 66W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N29W TO 5N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 3N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA
E OF 7W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 10N-12N E OF 17W TO
THE W COAST OF AFRICA...AND FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 16W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS S MEXICO/W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR
MOBILE ALABAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH S TO SE RETURN
FLOW COVERING THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
FAR W GULF LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM S OF 26N E OF
83W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NE GULF LATE FRI THEN DRIFT SE THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO DIPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA NW
FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 11N83W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN W OF 80W AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDING NW OVER THE
W ATLC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE N OF
THE ISLAND IS MOVING E AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK
W. THIS COULD BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR W ATLC AMPLIFYING
AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA TO OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 74W-79W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 30N W OF 79W TO THE COAST OF
FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024
MB HIGH NEAR 32N59W TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A DYING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W TO 27N52W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 29N41W TO
BEYOND 32N39W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM
27N47W TO 24N50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF NE FLORIDA N OF GRAND BAHAMA THU. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT IN E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N
THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM
COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA ALONG 11N TO 11N90W...THEN TURNS NW TO
12N96W...THEN TURNS SW TO A 1012 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT
09N116W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ AXIS FORMS JUST
TO THE W OF THE LOW PRES AND TURNS NW TO 11N130W WHERE THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN HAVE WEAKENED TO A
TROUGH FROM 10N132W TO 14N128W. THE ITCZ RESUMES SW OF THIS
TROUGH AT 10N132W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N83W TO 11N99W AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 11N109W TO 09N118W...AND DEVELOPING WITHIN 30 NM
OF A LINE FROM 07N126W TO 13N128W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE AXIS OF BOTH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 08N116W WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE ANOTHER EMBEDDED LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 10N110W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 71W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL REACH THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 10N81W. A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN
THE PACIFIC NEAR 10N88W WITH THE LOW SHIFTING W ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH ON THU. THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER ON THU...AND THEN CROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE PACIFIC
TO NEAR 10N87W LATE FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS LOW FORMING AND MOVING W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...AND DEVELOPS THE LOW INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. I USED
THE GFS TRACK AND POSITIONS IN MY EXTENDED GRIDS...BUT TONED
DONE THE WINDS CONSERVATIVELY TO A 20-25 KT LOW NEAR 10N92W LATE
SUN. MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SAT NIGHT...THEN PULSE THROUGH
SUNRISE ON MON. THE STRENGTH OF THESE DRAINAGE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG 10N BETWEEN 87W-92W OVER THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THUS THIS TEHUANTEPEC EVENT MAY BE OVER
FORECAST TO SOME DEGREE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N136W TO 16N110W.
NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS
FROM 27-30N BETWEEN 119W-131W WITH SEAS MAXING AT 9 FT IN THE
ASSOCIATED N SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THE N WINDS ARE AT 20-25 KT IN THE WATERS
FROM 30-32N BETWEEN 118-125W. THE NORTHERLY 20 KT FLOW WILL
SPREAD S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N W OF 115W TONIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL. SEAS OF 6-8 FT
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N
AS EARLY AS SUNRISE ON THU...AND MAY REACH AS FAR S AS 25N NEAR
BAHIA SANTA MARIA LATE THU NIGHT...MOSTLY IN REFRACTIVE SWELL.
WIND/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH WINDS 15 KT
AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ON SAT.

NE TRADES CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE REMNANT
TROUGH OF ALVIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT W
REACHING FROM 10N136W TO 13N132W TONIGHT AND FROM 09N140W TO
13N135W ON THU NIGHT...THEN SHIFT W OF 140W ON FRI.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...THAT PARTIALLY ORIGINATED
FROM THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
ALVIN...CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS EPAC AND MEXICO WITHIN 120 NM
OF A LINE FROM 18N113W TO 26N94W. A SECOND TROPICAL PLUME
ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 140W-152W AND STREAMS NE
WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM 18N140W TO 32N110W.

$$
NELSON

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM
COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA ALONG 11N TO 11N90W...THEN TURNS NW TO
12N96W...THEN TURNS SW TO A 1012 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT
09N116W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ AXIS FORMS JUST
TO THE W OF THE LOW PRES AND TURNS NW TO 11N130W WHERE THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN HAVE WEAKENED TO A
TROUGH FROM 10N132W TO 14N128W. THE ITCZ RESUMES SW OF THIS
TROUGH AT 10N132W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N83W TO 11N99W AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 11N109W TO 09N118W...AND DEVELOPING WITHIN 30 NM
OF A LINE FROM 07N126W TO 13N128W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE AXIS OF BOTH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 08N116W WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE ANOTHER EMBEDDED LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 10N110W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 71W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL REACH THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 10N81W. A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN
THE PACIFIC NEAR 10N88W WITH THE LOW SHIFTING W ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH ON THU. THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER ON THU...AND THEN CROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE PACIFIC
TO NEAR 10N87W LATE FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS LOW FORMING AND MOVING W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...AND DEVELOPS THE LOW INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. I USED
THE GFS TRACK AND POSITIONS IN MY EXTENDED GRIDS...BUT TONED
DONE THE WINDS CONSERVATIVELY TO A 20-25 KT LOW NEAR 10N92W LATE
SUN. MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SAT NIGHT...THEN PULSE THROUGH
SUNRISE ON MON. THE STRENGTH OF THESE DRAINAGE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG 10N BETWEEN 87W-92W OVER THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THUS THIS TEHUANTEPEC EVENT MAY BE OVER
FORECAST TO SOME DEGREE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N136W TO 16N110W.
NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS
FROM 27-30N BETWEEN 119W-131W WITH SEAS MAXING AT 9 FT IN THE
ASSOCIATED N SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THE N WINDS ARE AT 20-25 KT IN THE WATERS
FROM 30-32N BETWEEN 118-125W. THE NORTHERLY 20 KT FLOW WILL
SPREAD S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N W OF 115W TONIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL. SEAS OF 6-8 FT
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N
AS EARLY AS SUNRISE ON THU...AND MAY REACH AS FAR S AS 25N NEAR
BAHIA SANTA MARIA LATE THU NIGHT...MOSTLY IN REFRACTIVE SWELL.
WIND/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH WINDS 15 KT
AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ON SAT.

NE TRADES CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE REMNANT
TROUGH OF ALVIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT W
REACHING FROM 10N136W TO 13N132W TONIGHT AND FROM 09N140W TO
13N135W ON THU NIGHT...THEN SHIFT W OF 140W ON FRI.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...THAT PARTIALLY ORIGINATED
FROM THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
ALVIN...CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS EPAC AND MEXICO WITHIN 120 NM
OF A LINE FROM 18N113W TO 26N94W. A SECOND TROPICAL PLUME
ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 140W-152W AND STREAMS NE
WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM 18N140W TO 32N110W.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N37W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR
4N29W TO 1N40W 5-10 KT. WAVE WAS RELOCATED EARLIER TODAY TO
COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 38W-
41W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 33W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N69W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 10N70W MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
64W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W TO 5N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ E OF 24W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS S MEXICO/W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR
MOBILE ALABAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH S TO SE
RETURN FLOW COVERING THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE E
GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER
THE W GULF. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF N OF 22N W OF
93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE GULF LATE FRI THEN
DRIFT SE THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE
AREA N OF 16N W OF 80W NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-
80W AND S OF 10N W OF 80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TRADE WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS WITH
STRONGER NE WINDS JUST W OF WAVE AXIS AND OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COMPLETELY DIED OUT. AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS JUST TO THE NE TO THE ISLAND EXTENDING NW OVER THE W
ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWERS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING E. THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S
CONTINUES TO TRACK W. THIS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN MAINLY TO
HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N78W
OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OFF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N75W AND
IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 20N66W NW TO BEYOND 32N75W. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N58W TO OVER FLORIDA AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W TO 28N49W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 30N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING
FROM 29N47W TO 25N49W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF NE FLORIDA N OF GRAND BAHAMA THU. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT IN E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N
THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N37W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR
4N29W TO 1N40W 5-10 KT. WAVE WAS RELOCATED EARLIER TODAY TO
COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 38W-
41W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 33W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N69W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 10N70W MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
64W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W TO 5N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ E OF 24W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS S MEXICO/W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR
MOBILE ALABAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH S TO SE
RETURN FLOW COVERING THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE E
GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER
THE W GULF. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF N OF 22N W OF
93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE GULF LATE FRI THEN
DRIFT SE THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE
AREA N OF 16N W OF 80W NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-
80W AND S OF 10N W OF 80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TRADE WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS WITH
STRONGER NE WINDS JUST W OF WAVE AXIS AND OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COMPLETELY DIED OUT. AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS JUST TO THE NE TO THE ISLAND EXTENDING NW OVER THE W
ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWERS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING E. THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S
CONTINUES TO TRACK W. THIS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN MAINLY TO
HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N78W
OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OFF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N75W AND
IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 20N66W NW TO BEYOND 32N75W. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N58W TO OVER FLORIDA AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W TO 28N49W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 30N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING
FROM 29N47W TO 25N49W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF NE FLORIDA N OF GRAND BAHAMA THU. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT IN E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N
THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220249
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10N80W TO
10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N116W TO LOW NEAR 11N130W TO 07N134W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W TO
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
32N134W TO NEAR 20N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF
115W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 113W-140W
BEGINNING FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT...THEN SUBSIDING TO LESS THEN 12 FT ON FRI.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N130W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
NR/JA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220249
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10N80W TO
10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N116W TO LOW NEAR 11N130W TO 07N134W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W TO
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
32N134W TO NEAR 20N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF
115W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 113W-140W
BEGINNING FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT...THEN SUBSIDING TO LESS THEN 12 FT ON FRI.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N130W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
NR/JA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220249
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10N80W TO
10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N116W TO LOW NEAR 11N130W TO 07N134W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W TO
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
32N134W TO NEAR 20N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF
115W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 113W-140W
BEGINNING FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT...THEN SUBSIDING TO LESS THEN 12 FT ON FRI.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N130W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
NR/JA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220249
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10N80W TO
10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N116W TO LOW NEAR 11N130W TO 07N134W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W TO
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
32N134W TO NEAR 20N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF
115W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 113W-140W
BEGINNING FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT...THEN SUBSIDING TO LESS THEN 12 FT ON FRI.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N130W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
NR/JA

000
AXNT20 KNHC 212344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO EQ39W THROUGH A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 4N38W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THIS POSITION IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LAST ANALYSIS. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO MORE
PROMINENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW...AND WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN 1000 MB STREAMLINES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE VICINITY AND
IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE WHICH WILL BECOME DOMINANT...AS IS
COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N68W
TO 10N71W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
BROAD AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...SOME OF THE
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N13W
TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 7N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N26W
5N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-
20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE BASIN ALONG 90W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WEST ATLC. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 80W/81W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING HAS LED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ACTIVITY
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA RANGING FROM 10 KT IN
THE EASTERN GULF TO 15-20 IN THE WESTERN GULF. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA SHOULD DRIFT EAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IT MAY STILL INFLUENCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA ALONG 10N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A WEAK
1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
10N79W. ACTIVITY IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 12N. IT IS ALSO ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PRESENT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS SHEARING MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 70W AND DRAWING IT ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 70W. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO COVERING MUCH OF
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT OVER HAITI
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN INCREASED
AREA OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH. THIS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 80W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 75W-79W WITH
ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER CUBA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N58W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH NEAR 44W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N44W AND
CONTINUES TO 27N51W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO NEAR 26N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A WEAK 1019
MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N48W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT ALONG 29N47W TO 23N50W. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE TROUGH/LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
44N27W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 212344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO EQ39W THROUGH A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 4N38W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THIS POSITION IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LAST ANALYSIS. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO MORE
PROMINENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW...AND WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN 1000 MB STREAMLINES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE VICINITY AND
IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE WHICH WILL BECOME DOMINANT...AS IS
COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N68W
TO 10N71W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
BROAD AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...SOME OF THE
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N13W
TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 7N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N26W
5N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-
20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE BASIN ALONG 90W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WEST ATLC. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 80W/81W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING HAS LED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ACTIVITY
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA RANGING FROM 10 KT IN
THE EASTERN GULF TO 15-20 IN THE WESTERN GULF. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA SHOULD DRIFT EAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IT MAY STILL INFLUENCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA ALONG 10N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A WEAK
1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
10N79W. ACTIVITY IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 12N. IT IS ALSO ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PRESENT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS SHEARING MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 70W AND DRAWING IT ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 70W. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO COVERING MUCH OF
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT OVER HAITI
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN INCREASED
AREA OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH. THIS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 80W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 75W-79W WITH
ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER CUBA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N58W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH NEAR 44W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N44W AND
CONTINUES TO 27N51W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO NEAR 26N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A WEAK 1019
MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N48W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT ALONG 29N47W TO 23N50W. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE TROUGH/LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
44N27W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212131
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRES NEAR 10N79W TO
08N91W TO 09N100W TO 09N110W TO 06N120W TO A LOW PRES NEAR
10N129W TO 05N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N135W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND
94W...BETWEEN 100W AND 112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 121W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
32N133W TO NEAR 20N113W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF
113W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 115W-140W
FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12
FT.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N129W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
NR/JA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212131
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRES NEAR 10N79W TO
08N91W TO 09N100W TO 09N110W TO 06N120W TO A LOW PRES NEAR
10N129W TO 05N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N135W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND
94W...BETWEEN 100W AND 112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 121W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
32N133W TO NEAR 20N113W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF
113W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 115W-140W
FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12
FT.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N129W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
NR/JA

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO 05N39W MOVING
W AT 10 KT. EXAMINING GLOBAL MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSES
AT THE 315K LEVEL...A MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-42W. IN ADDITION...A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED IN IMAGERY FROM THE EQUATOR TO
06N BETWEEN 36W-43W. A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED WEST
OF THE WAVE NEAR 04N37W. AT THIS TIME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AND THE WEAK LOW MAY BE CONSOLIDATING AND RESULT IN A RE-
POSITIONING OR ADJUSTMENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 21/1800 UTC IF
NECESSARY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND LOW CENTER FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N68W TO 16N66W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMIZED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY
WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERIES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N16W TO 04N20W TO 03N26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 09W-18W...AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 21W-
25W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR
NEAR 28W TO 04N30W TO 06N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WITHIN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF THIS AFTERNON. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE
RIDGING THAT REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH RESULTS
IN PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
BASIN. LOOKING AHEAD...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SKIRT THE SE
CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL NE GULF WATERS. LASTLY...OF
NOTE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
DISPERSED AREA OF SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF A LINE FROM
GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE NE CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N90W. THE SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY DUE TO
NUMEROUS AGRICULTURAL AND WILD FIRES OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 72W ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 13N91W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS
PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG 10N NORTH OF PANAMA AND ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA
RICA. EAST OF 72W...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MORE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN IN THE LAST FEW PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MOISTURE STEMS
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT IS
PROVIDING HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING REGION WITH MORE
OVERALL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY. WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH E-SE TRADES
PREVAILING...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SYNOPTICALLY...
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA CENTERED NEAR 29N82W AND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
TO MOVE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 22N BETWEEN 73W-
81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W.
FARTHER EAST...A NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 45N49W THAT LEADS TO BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 38W-60W AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N45W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 27N54W TO 27N61W AND ALSO
EXHIBITS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COLD
FRONT NEAR 31N46W TO 24N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 48N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO 05N39W MOVING
W AT 10 KT. EXAMINING GLOBAL MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSES
AT THE 315K LEVEL...A MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-42W. IN ADDITION...A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED IN IMAGERY FROM THE EQUATOR TO
06N BETWEEN 36W-43W. A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED WEST
OF THE WAVE NEAR 04N37W. AT THIS TIME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AND THE WEAK LOW MAY BE CONSOLIDATING AND RESULT IN A RE-
POSITIONING OR ADJUSTMENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 21/1800 UTC IF
NECESSARY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND LOW CENTER FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N68W TO 16N66W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMIZED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY
WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERIES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N16W TO 04N20W TO 03N26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 09W-18W...AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 21W-
25W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR
NEAR 28W TO 04N30W TO 06N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WITHIN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF THIS AFTERNON. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE
RIDGING THAT REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH RESULTS
IN PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
BASIN. LOOKING AHEAD...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SKIRT THE SE
CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL NE GULF WATERS. LASTLY...OF
NOTE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
DISPERSED AREA OF SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF A LINE FROM
GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE NE CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N90W. THE SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY DUE TO
NUMEROUS AGRICULTURAL AND WILD FIRES OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 72W ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 13N91W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS
PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG 10N NORTH OF PANAMA AND ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA
RICA. EAST OF 72W...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MORE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN IN THE LAST FEW PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MOISTURE STEMS
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT IS
PROVIDING HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING REGION WITH MORE
OVERALL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY. WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH E-SE TRADES
PREVAILING...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SYNOPTICALLY...
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA CENTERED NEAR 29N82W AND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
TO MOVE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 22N BETWEEN 73W-
81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W.
FARTHER EAST...A NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 45N49W THAT LEADS TO BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 38W-60W AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N45W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 27N54W TO 27N61W AND ALSO
EXHIBITS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COLD
FRONT NEAR 31N46W TO 24N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 48N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211531
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM A LOW PRES NEAR 10N80W TO
12N89W TO 10N96W TO 10N108W TO 08N117W TO 12N126W TO 07N135W...
THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ W OF 07N135W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO AROUND 20N110W. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS
TO 7-8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N LATER TODAY WILL SPREAD S
ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-140W THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL WED THROUGH THU
NEAR 30N120W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH
WINDS 15 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BY SAT.

A TROPICAL LOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SW CARIBBEAN WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SECOND WEAKER LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N86W EARLY
THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... AND ARE DEPICTED AS
A SW-NE ORIENTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO 14N127W.
NE TO E WINDS AT 20-25 KT AND SEAS 7-10 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 300
NM NW OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN AS
A BREAK IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. NE TRADES W OF THE TROUGH WILL
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...WHILE SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN
8 FT ON WED.

GFS MODEL SHOWS NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211531
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM A LOW PRES NEAR 10N80W TO
12N89W TO 10N96W TO 10N108W TO 08N117W TO 12N126W TO 07N135W...
THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ W OF 07N135W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO AROUND 20N110W. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS
TO 7-8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N LATER TODAY WILL SPREAD S
ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-140W THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL WED THROUGH THU
NEAR 30N120W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH
WINDS 15 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BY SAT.

A TROPICAL LOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SW CARIBBEAN WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SECOND WEAKER LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N86W EARLY
THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... AND ARE DEPICTED AS
A SW-NE ORIENTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO 14N127W.
NE TO E WINDS AT 20-25 KT AND SEAS 7-10 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 300
NM NW OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN AS
A BREAK IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. NE TRADES W OF THE TROUGH WILL
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...WHILE SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN
8 FT ON WED.

GFS MODEL SHOWS NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N38W TO EQ40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE
700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N65W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N21W TO 3N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N34W TO 2N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 5N12W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 3N-9N E OF 17W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 19W-30W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ACROSS S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS MORNING...THUS
CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE N OF 23N W OF 94W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NE GULF FRI THEN DRIFT S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 17N
IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN BAHIA DE YUMA TO
BAHIA DE OCOA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TODAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N72W TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N W OF 78W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 79W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO 28N54W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 29N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING
FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N48W TO 25N49W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW
PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N38W TO EQ40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE
700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N65W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N21W TO 3N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N34W TO 2N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 5N12W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 3N-9N E OF 17W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 19W-30W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ACROSS S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS MORNING...THUS
CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE N OF 23N W OF 94W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NE GULF FRI THEN DRIFT S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 17N
IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN BAHIA DE YUMA TO
BAHIA DE OCOA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TODAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N72W TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N W OF 78W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 79W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO 28N54W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 29N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING
FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N48W TO 25N49W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW
PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N38W TO EQ40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE
700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N65W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N21W TO 3N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N34W TO 2N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 5N12W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 3N-9N E OF 17W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 19W-30W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ACROSS S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS MORNING...THUS
CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE N OF 23N W OF 94W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NE GULF FRI THEN DRIFT S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 17N
IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN BAHIA DE YUMA TO
BAHIA DE OCOA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TODAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N72W TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N W OF 78W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 79W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO 28N54W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 29N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING
FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N48W TO 25N49W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW
PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N38W TO EQ40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE
700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N65W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N21W TO 3N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N34W TO 2N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 5N12W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 3N-9N E OF 17W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 19W-30W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ACROSS S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS MORNING...THUS
CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE N OF 23N W OF 94W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NE GULF FRI THEN DRIFT S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 17N
IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN BAHIA DE YUMA TO
BAHIA DE OCOA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TODAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N72W TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N W OF 78W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 79W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO 28N54W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 29N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING
FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N48W TO 25N49W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW
PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W AND THEN NW FROM THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AT 08N78W ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TIP OF PANAMA TO 10N87W TO 10N107W...THEN TURNS WSW TO 08N116W
...THEN NW TO 12N126W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. SCATTEROMETER
WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS SW OF THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN AT
12N127W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE E OF 120W WITHIN
150 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 137W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH
THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N81W
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS IN THE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 10N86W WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
ON SUN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N135W TO 20N110W.
NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS
TO THE N OF 30N BETWEEN 120W-130W WITH SEAS MAXING AT 8 FT IN
THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING N SURGE AT 20 TO 25 KT
WILL ARRIVE ALONG 32N LATER TODAY WITH ONLY 20 KT WINDS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN
115W-140W ON THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG
PERIOD N SWELL ON WED INTO THU NEAR 30N120W. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N AS
EARLY AS SUNRISE ON THU...AND MAY REACH AS FAR S AS 25N NEAR
BAHIA SANTA MARIA LATE THU NIGHT MOSTLY IN REFRACTIVE SWELL.
WIND/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH WINDS 15 KT
AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ON SAT.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN HAVE WEAKENED TO SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N130W TO 15N126W. NE TO E WINDS AT 20-25 KT
AND SEAS 7-10 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT
THE SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH TO DRIFT W AND EXTEND FROM 09N133W
TO 14N128W TONIGHT...AND FROM 09N136W TO 11N133W TO 13N128W ON
WED NIGHT...ALL THE WHILE INTERRUPTING THE ITCZ. THE NE TRADES
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON WED.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN...
AND OTHER CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 116W-
121W...CONCENTRATES INTO A 180 NM WIDE PLUME FROM 12N119W TO
23N106W...THEN THE PLUME CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT EVAPORATES WITH ONLY A
SMALL AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE INDICATED OVER SE TEXAS THIS
MORNING. A SECOND TROPICAL PLUME ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 136W-148W AND STREAMS NNE WITHIN 300 NM OF A LINE FROM
12N140W TO 32N130W...WITH PLUME THEN WIDENING AS IT SPILLS NE
AND LATER E ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

$$
NELSON

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W AND THEN NW FROM THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AT 08N78W ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TIP OF PANAMA TO 10N87W TO 10N107W...THEN TURNS WSW TO 08N116W
...THEN NW TO 12N126W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. SCATTEROMETER
WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS SW OF THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN AT
12N127W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE E OF 120W WITHIN
150 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 137W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH
THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N81W
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS IN THE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 10N86W WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
ON SUN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N135W TO 20N110W.
NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS
TO THE N OF 30N BETWEEN 120W-130W WITH SEAS MAXING AT 8 FT IN
THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING N SURGE AT 20 TO 25 KT
WILL ARRIVE ALONG 32N LATER TODAY WITH ONLY 20 KT WINDS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN
115W-140W ON THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG
PERIOD N SWELL ON WED INTO THU NEAR 30N120W. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N AS
EARLY AS SUNRISE ON THU...AND MAY REACH AS FAR S AS 25N NEAR
BAHIA SANTA MARIA LATE THU NIGHT MOSTLY IN REFRACTIVE SWELL.
WIND/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH WINDS 15 KT
AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ON SAT.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN HAVE WEAKENED TO SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N130W TO 15N126W. NE TO E WINDS AT 20-25 KT
AND SEAS 7-10 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT
THE SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH TO DRIFT W AND EXTEND FROM 09N133W
TO 14N128W TONIGHT...AND FROM 09N136W TO 11N133W TO 13N128W ON
WED NIGHT...ALL THE WHILE INTERRUPTING THE ITCZ. THE NE TRADES
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON WED.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN...
AND OTHER CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 116W-
121W...CONCENTRATES INTO A 180 NM WIDE PLUME FROM 12N119W TO
23N106W...THEN THE PLUME CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT EVAPORATES WITH ONLY A
SMALL AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE INDICATED OVER SE TEXAS THIS
MORNING. A SECOND TROPICAL PLUME ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 136W-148W AND STREAMS NNE WITHIN 300 NM OF A LINE FROM
12N140W TO 32N130W...WITH PLUME THEN WIDENING AS IT SPILLS NE
AND LATER E ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO EQ38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE 700 MB
STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO DISRUPTS THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 6N65W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 57W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 4N23W TO 4N27W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W TO 4N35W THEN RESUMES W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 1N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 11N E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W...
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-38W...AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED OVER
ALL BUT SE FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE E
COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
OVER THE E GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF
TONIGHT...THUS CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
MEXICO N OF 21N. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE NE
GULF FRI SLOWLY SINKING S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 16N IS UNDER
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 67W-84W.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST BETWEEN GUANTANAMO AND THE GULF
OF ANA MARIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-81W.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE SE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND LA ROMANA.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST TOMORROW
WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY OVER THE
ISLAND TUE INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS AMPLIFYING
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 24N75W TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 79W-81W
INCLUDING SE FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N48W ALONG 28N55W TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF THE FRONT E OF 54W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE
EXTENDING FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 27N48W TO 24N46W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 27N THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO EQ38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE 700 MB
STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO DISRUPTS THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 6N65W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 57W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 4N23W TO 4N27W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W TO 4N35W THEN RESUMES W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 1N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 11N E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W...
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-38W...AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED OVER
ALL BUT SE FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE E
COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
OVER THE E GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF
TONIGHT...THUS CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
MEXICO N OF 21N. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE NE
GULF FRI SLOWLY SINKING S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 16N IS UNDER
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 67W-84W.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST BETWEEN GUANTANAMO AND THE GULF
OF ANA MARIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-81W.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE SE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND LA ROMANA.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST TOMORROW
WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY OVER THE
ISLAND TUE INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS AMPLIFYING
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 24N75W TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 79W-81W
INCLUDING SE FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N48W ALONG 28N55W TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF THE FRONT E OF 54W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE
EXTENDING FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 27N48W TO 24N46W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 27N THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210503
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210503
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N104W TO
11N123W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 92W...WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 99W AND WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1010 MB LOW REMNANT OF ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 12N126W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N127W TO
14N126W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-
25 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 10 FT. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL
IS MAINTAINING SEAS UP TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
122W-130W. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF
ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM TO THE N
OF THE LOW CENTER.

A 1044 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 50N148W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N111W. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS
OF 4-6 FT. A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 29N BETWEEN
120W AND 128W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EARLY ON
WED AND UP TO 30 KT FROM WED AFTERNOON TO EARLY THU AS HIGH PRES
N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.

$$
NR/MKH

000
AXNT20 KNHC 202339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N34W TO EQ36W MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A GOOD SIGNAL IN 700 MB STREAMLINES AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. IT ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N62W TO 9N63W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS PARTIALLY OVER SOUTH AMERICA...BUT THE MOISTURE
SIGNAL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY EXTENDS UP TO 15N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM TO EITHER SIDE
SOUTH OF 12N. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
STILL MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...SO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS STILL PRESENT OVER THIS AREA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO ALONG 5N20W 4N30W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N30W AND
CONTINUES ALONG EQ38W 3S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 22W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA...ALONG WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
EAST PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS LED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH SOME BEING SEVERE. THE
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DIED DOWN SOME...BUT HEAVY
ACTIVITY STILL SPREADS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST WINDS SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE BASIN RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WITH A FEW AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
MOSTLY DRY AIR. THE DRY AIR IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 11N FROM
COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA INCLUDING PANAMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONNECTED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH BOTH COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THAT AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVING INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN JUST WEST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EAST OF 63W SOUTH OF 16N. THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE WITH
THE WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER
THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES
WITH A FEW 25 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOIST
CONDITIONS AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CORNER
MOVES WEST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER
THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
TOMORROW OVER PUERTO RICO AND SPREAD WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 70W-73W. AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST TOMORROW WITH THE MOST
LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND ON
WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IS
SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE ATLC TO NEAR 78W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 76W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST ATLC AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 35N62W. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 49W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N55W
27N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. A WEAK
1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS TO THE EAST NEAR 27N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM 30N49W 24N44W. NO SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH NEAR 44N29W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 43N26W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 202339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N34W TO EQ36W MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A GOOD SIGNAL IN 700 MB STREAMLINES AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. IT ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N62W TO 9N63W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS PARTIALLY OVER SOUTH AMERICA...BUT THE MOISTURE
SIGNAL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY EXTENDS UP TO 15N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM TO EITHER SIDE
SOUTH OF 12N. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
STILL MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...SO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS STILL PRESENT OVER THIS AREA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO ALONG 5N20W 4N30W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N30W AND
CONTINUES ALONG EQ38W 3S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 22W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA...ALONG WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
EAST PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS LED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH SOME BEING SEVERE. THE
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DIED DOWN SOME...BUT HEAVY
ACTIVITY STILL SPREADS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST WINDS SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE BASIN RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WITH A FEW AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
MOSTLY DRY AIR. THE DRY AIR IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 11N FROM
COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA INCLUDING PANAMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONNECTED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH BOTH COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THAT AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVING INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN JUST WEST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EAST OF 63W SOUTH OF 16N. THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE WITH
THE WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER
THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES
WITH A FEW 25 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOIST
CONDITIONS AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CORNER
MOVES WEST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER
THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
TOMORROW OVER PUERTO RICO AND SPREAD WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 70W-73W. AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST TOMORROW WITH THE MOST
LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND ON
WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IS
SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE ATLC TO NEAR 78W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 76W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST ATLC AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 35N62W. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 49W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N55W
27N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. A WEAK
1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS TO THE EAST NEAR 27N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM 30N49W 24N44W. NO SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH NEAR 44N29W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 43N26W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202137
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 9N85W TO 10N98W
TO 07N117W TO 12N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N126W TO
05N135W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 77W AND 111W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 124W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1012 MB LOW REMNANT OF ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 12N126W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO
14N125W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-
25 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 10 FT. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL
IS MAINTAINING SEAS UP TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED
BY 11N-16N BETWEEN 121W-130W. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
REMNANT LOW OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N137W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N112W. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS
OF 4-6 FT. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 28N
BETWEEN 119W AND 128W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EARLY
ON WED AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.


$$
NR/MKH

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202137
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 9N85W TO 10N98W
TO 07N117W TO 12N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N126W TO
05N135W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 77W AND 111W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 124W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1012 MB LOW REMNANT OF ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 12N126W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO
14N125W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-
25 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 10 FT. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL
IS MAINTAINING SEAS UP TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED
BY 11N-16N BETWEEN 121W-130W. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
REMNANT LOW OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N137W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N112W. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS
OF 4-6 FT. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 28N
BETWEEN 119W AND 128W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EARLY
ON WED AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.


$$
NR/MKH