Home > Products > National Data >
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED TO STRONG GALES TO
AROUND 45 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FURTHER TO A MAX OF 40 KT ON SAT MORNING. STRENGTHENING
POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT...AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY SAT NIGHT. A STRONG GALE AT SUNRISE SUN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT SUN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT
SUNRISE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS THEN SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MON NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEPICTED BY 1652
UTC ASCAT DATA...AND THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SEAS REMAIN EXTREMELY ROUGH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...AND ARE
STILL RUNNING 8-11 FT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING THESE STRONG WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH...AND THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
TO 20-25 KT MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS COULD STILL BE SEEN TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE TIBURON
BASIN. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG ENE WINDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL THROUGH GAPS AND BAYS NEAR
THE PACIFIC COASTS TODAY. THIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE PLUME OF
STRONG ENE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING SW TO NEAR
06.5N92.5W...WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8-10 FT. A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY SE OVERNIGHT
ANDALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION...
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO 20-30 KT
TONIGHT...AND EXPAND N TO THE GULF OF FONSECA.  WINDS AND
SEASWILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION...AND INCREASES WINDS
TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PROLONGED GAP WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO MERGE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT
ANDGREATER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...AND ENCOMPASS THE
AREAFROM 01N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NEAR
06.5N83W AND EXTENDS W TO 04N91W TO 06N122W...THEN SW TO BEYOND
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 03N104W AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N113W TO 07N122W
TO 05N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1030 MB HIGH SE THROUGH 23N120W TO 21N112W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS
THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 120W...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY 10-15 KT N-NE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 108-113W...AND 5-10 KT NE-E WINDS N
OF 15N BETWEEN 97-110W...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
STORM/GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NW SWELLS...IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 7-11 FT
SEAS...CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND BAJA...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SAT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS
EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N W
OF 106W. PULSES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05-20N W OF 122W THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHRINKING TO 05-10N W OF 127W BY EARLY
MON...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE AND
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 8-14 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W OF 106W. THESE SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MON...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON WED EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N W OF 138W ON TUE NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR
05N09W TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N18W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N33W TO 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02S TO 03N W OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXITED THE SE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND A
SURFACE RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...BEING
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN WATERS SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS E OF 91W AND E OF 94W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY
AIR BASIN-WIDE...WHICH SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NE TO OVER VIRGINIA LATER TODAY
WHILE THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATERS. THIS
SCENARIO WILL REDUCE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NW BASIN SAT MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BASE NEAR 29N
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 22N80W SW TO 19N85W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO WESTERN HONDURAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NE
OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 19N65W WITH
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SW TO 15N67W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE MONA
PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER
TODAY AND START TO DISSIPATE BY SAT MORNING. THE LOW NE OF
PUERTO RICO WILL DISSIPATE AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE W TO OVER HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH JUST E OF PUERTO RICO IS STARTING TO MOVE
OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SW TO W
TODAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS A TROUGH SAT. THIS
COULD GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BASE NEAR 29N
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N75W SW TO NORTH-
CENTRAL CUBA AND THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 22N80W TO
19N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO WESTERN HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTS A 1013 MB
LOW NEAR 19N65W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N65W TO
THE LOW SW TO 15N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT ARE FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. THE REMAINDER
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E AND STALL WHILE WEAKENING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO W
CUBA LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME REINFORCED SAT WITH
SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE SAT. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND SHIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN
WHILE THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND REACHES FROM 32N72W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051548
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH SEAS TO 22 FT AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FURTHER
DIMINISH TO A MAX OF 40 KT ON SAT MORNING. STRENGTHENING POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
MINIMAL STORM FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT. A STRONG GALE AT SUNRISE SUN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT SUN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE ON MON. GUIDANCE
THEN SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MON NIGHT. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS...
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT...OBSERVED LAST NIGHT NEAR 28.5N ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RELAX SUPPORTING 20-25
KT NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING
WITH 20-25 KT NW PULSES EXPECTED ON SAT. ONLY 20 KT NW FLOW
EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG TO NEAR GALE ENE PULSES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD RELAX SOME TONIGHT SUPPORTING MOSTLY 20-25 KT WINDS ON
SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN SAT EVENING INCREASING THE
NE FLOW TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE ON SUN...WITH THE
NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG TO NEAR FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N92W...RESULTING IN
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 10N87W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SAT NIGHT N OF 12N BETWEEN 87W AND
91W...INCLUDING THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF FONSECA WITH SEAS TO
ABOUT 7 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 04N77W TO 01N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS.

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06.5N83W
AND EXTENDS W TO 04N91W TO 06N122W...THEN DIPS SW TO BEYOND
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 03N104W AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N113W TO 07N122W
TO 05N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
27N120W TO 17N103W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 113-
120W...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
MOSTLY 10-15 KT N-NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 108-113W...AND 5-
10 KT NE-E WINDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 97-110W...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED STORM/GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NW SWELLS...IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 7-11 FT
SEAS...CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND BAJA...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SAT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS
EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N W
OF 106W. PULSES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05-10N W OF 127W THROUGH
EARLY TUE...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS
WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W
OF 106W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE...THEN BEGIN TO
BUILD AGAIN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON
WED EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N W OF 138W ON
TUE NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N16W ALONG 4N26W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-44W AND FROM 2
TO THE EQUATOR W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES
INTO THE E GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FAR
SW FLORIDA AND THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W
THEN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 22N85W INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF
LINE FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S GULF S OF 23N. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER E
TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE
S/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E GULF. DRY AIR ALOFT AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W ACROSS ISLA COZUMEL TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUNTA ALLEN. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS S THROUGH LATE
TODAY THEN BECOMING REINFORCED SAT AND REACH FROM E CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE SAT AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE
NICARAGUA LATE MON. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN DISSIPATE.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN THIS
MORNING. A 1012 MB LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 15N64W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY SPREADING
ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH MON. THIS COULD
GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N77W ALONG 29N79W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E
OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 21N77W TO 31N68W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N64W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR
20N65WCONTINUING S INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 51W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N55W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO NEAR 10N61W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND STALL WHILE WEAKENING
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO W CUBA LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
REINFORCED SAT WITH SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS LATE SAT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND SHIFT N OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN WHILE THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND REACHES
FROM 32N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N16W ALONG 4N26W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-44W AND FROM 2
TO THE EQUATOR W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES
INTO THE E GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FAR
SW FLORIDA AND THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W
THEN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 22N85W INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF
LINE FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S GULF S OF 23N. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER E
TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE
S/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E GULF. DRY AIR ALOFT AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W ACROSS ISLA COZUMEL TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUNTA ALLEN. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS S THROUGH LATE
TODAY THEN BECOMING REINFORCED SAT AND REACH FROM E CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE SAT AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE
NICARAGUA LATE MON. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN DISSIPATE.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN THIS
MORNING. A 1012 MB LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 15N64W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY SPREADING
ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH MON. THIS COULD
GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N77W ALONG 29N79W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E
OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 21N77W TO 31N68W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N64W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR
20N65WCONTINUING S INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 51W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N55W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO NEAR 10N61W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND STALL WHILE WEAKENING
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO W CUBA LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
REINFORCED SAT WITH SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS LATE SAT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND SHIFT N OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN WHILE THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND REACHES
FROM 32N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 051145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N16W ALONG 4N26W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-44W AND FROM 2
TO THE EQUATOR W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES
INTO THE E GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FAR
SW FLORIDA AND THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W
THEN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 22N85W INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF
LINE FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S GULF S OF 23N. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER E
TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE
S/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E GULF. DRY AIR ALOFT AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W ACROSS ISLA COZUMEL TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUNTA ALLEN. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS S THROUGH LATE
TODAY THEN BECOMING REINFORCED SAT AND REACH FROM E CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE SAT AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE
NICARAGUA LATE MON. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN DISSIPATE.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN THIS
MORNING. A 1012 MB LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 15N64W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY SPREADING
ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH MON. THIS COULD
GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N77W ALONG 29N79W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E
OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 21N77W TO 31N68W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N64W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR
20N65WCONTINUING S INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 51W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N55W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO NEAR 10N61W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND STALL WHILE WEAKENING
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO W CUBA LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
REINFORCED SAT WITH SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS LATE SAT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND SHIFT N OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN WHILE THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND REACHES
FROM 32N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS HAVE INCREASED TO STORM FORCE
PER A PRIOR 04/2225 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
WINDS TO 50 KT. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STORM FORCE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 05/1800 UTC AND DIMINISH TO 40-45 KT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SEAS JUST DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
BUILD TO 21 FT OR GREATER INTO EARLY FRI WHILE THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG GALES TO NEAR 45 KT THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF WINDS...AND AGAIN REACH STORM FORCE SAT EVENING
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...WITH THE
RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 450 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO
PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SMALL LOCALIZED AREAS TO 30 KT EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A RECENT 05/0000 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
JUST DOWNWIND OF THE TIBURON BASIN...RESULTING IN THE CURRENT
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 8-11 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE AROUND MIDDAY FRI...AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RESPOND BY SUBSIDING
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N85W TO 03N94W TO 04N104W TO 05N132W TO
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 05N
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
02N99W TO 04N104W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N W OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
-HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N128W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO 15N106W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N AND W OF 117W. NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS
MAINLY IN THE 9 TO 13 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE BROAD AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY
FRI AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO BRINGING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT LATE SATURDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS HAVE INCREASED TO STORM FORCE
PER A PRIOR 04/2225 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
WINDS TO 50 KT. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STORM FORCE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 05/1800 UTC AND DIMINISH TO 40-45 KT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SEAS JUST DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
BUILD TO 21 FT OR GREATER INTO EARLY FRI WHILE THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG GALES TO NEAR 45 KT THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF WINDS...AND AGAIN REACH STORM FORCE SAT EVENING
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...WITH THE
RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 450 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO
PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SMALL LOCALIZED AREAS TO 30 KT EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A RECENT 05/0000 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
JUST DOWNWIND OF THE TIBURON BASIN...RESULTING IN THE CURRENT
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 8-11 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE AROUND MIDDAY FRI...AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RESPOND BY SUBSIDING
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N85W TO 03N94W TO 04N104W TO 05N132W TO
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 05N
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
02N99W TO 04N104W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N W OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
-HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N128W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO 15N106W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N AND W OF 117W. NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS
MAINLY IN THE 9 TO 13 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE BROAD AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY
FRI AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO BRINGING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT LATE SATURDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N17W ALONG 2N26W 1N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR W OF 29W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT
MYERS NEAR 27N82W TO OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG
25N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 81W-85W TO OVER W CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
LATE TONIGHT WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THEN RETURN N SAT AND PUSH BACK S
THROUGH THE AREA W OF 85W SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FROM E CUBA TO
NE HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE MON.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT. A LOW/SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE W FRI AND WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON THEN
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING N OF THE
ISLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND BY SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING
FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 21N61W
CONTINUING S TO 15N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N54W TO 12N58W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO W CUBA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO
CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. A SURFACE LOW WILL
THEN DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND SEND A NEW COLD
FRONT EASTWARD FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN MORNING THEN
TO 32N65W TO E CUBA SUN NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING OVER C/CENTRAL
ATLC MON. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N
PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N17W ALONG 2N26W 1N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR W OF 29W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT
MYERS NEAR 27N82W TO OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG
25N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 81W-85W TO OVER W CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
LATE TONIGHT WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THEN RETURN N SAT AND PUSH BACK S
THROUGH THE AREA W OF 85W SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FROM E CUBA TO
NE HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE MON.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT. A LOW/SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE W FRI AND WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON THEN
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING N OF THE
ISLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND BY SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING
FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 21N61W
CONTINUING S TO 15N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N54W TO 12N58W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO W CUBA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO
CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. A SURFACE LOW WILL
THEN DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND SEND A NEW COLD
FRONT EASTWARD FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN MORNING THEN
TO 32N65W TO E CUBA SUN NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING OVER C/CENTRAL
ATLC MON. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N
PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N17W ALONG 2N26W 1N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR W OF 29W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT
MYERS NEAR 27N82W TO OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG
25N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 81W-85W TO OVER W CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
LATE TONIGHT WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THEN RETURN N SAT AND PUSH BACK S
THROUGH THE AREA W OF 85W SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FROM E CUBA TO
NE HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE MON.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT. A LOW/SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE W FRI AND WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON THEN
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING N OF THE
ISLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND BY SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING
FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 21N61W
CONTINUING S TO 15N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N54W TO 12N58W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO W CUBA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO
CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. A SURFACE LOW WILL
THEN DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND SEND A NEW COLD
FRONT EASTWARD FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN MORNING THEN
TO 32N65W TO E CUBA SUN NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING OVER C/CENTRAL
ATLC MON. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N
PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N17W ALONG 2N26W 1N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR W OF 29W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT
MYERS NEAR 27N82W TO OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG
25N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 81W-85W TO OVER W CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
LATE TONIGHT WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THEN RETURN N SAT AND PUSH BACK S
THROUGH THE AREA W OF 85W SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FROM E CUBA TO
NE HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE MON.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT. A LOW/SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE W FRI AND WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON THEN
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING N OF THE
ISLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND BY SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING
FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 21N61W
CONTINUING S TO 15N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N54W TO 12N58W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO W CUBA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO
CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. A SURFACE LOW WILL
THEN DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND SEND A NEW COLD
FRONT EASTWARD FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN MORNING THEN
TO 32N65W TO E CUBA SUN NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING OVER C/CENTRAL
ATLC MON. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N
PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N17W ALONG 2N26W 1N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR W OF 29W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT
MYERS NEAR 27N82W TO OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG
25N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 81W-85W TO OVER W CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
LATE TONIGHT WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THEN RETURN N SAT AND PUSH BACK S
THROUGH THE AREA W OF 85W SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FROM E CUBA TO
NE HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE MON.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT. A LOW/SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE W FRI AND WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON THEN
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING N OF THE
ISLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND BY SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING
FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 21N61W
CONTINUING S TO 15N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N54W TO 12N58W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO W CUBA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO
CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. A SURFACE LOW WILL
THEN DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND SEND A NEW COLD
FRONT EASTWARD FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN MORNING THEN
TO 32N65W TO E CUBA SUN NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING OVER C/CENTRAL
ATLC MON. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N
PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050348 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING...WITH A 2225 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS ACROSS THE REGION
SHOWING WINDS TO 50 KT...AND A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STORM FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND DIMINISH TO 40-45 KT BY AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY. SEAS JUST
DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BUILD TO 20 FT OR GREATER INTO
EARLY FRI WHILE THE NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT
WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG GALES TO
NEAR 45 KT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WINDS...AND AGAIN REACH
STORM FORCE SAT EVENING. ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...WITH THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 300 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO
PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...WITH LARGE AREAS TO 30 KT EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A 0000 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS
SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS JUST DOWNWIND OF
THE TIBURON BASIN...AND A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. THESE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE
OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS OUT AS FAR AS 120 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO 8-11 FT INSIDE THE GULF IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE AROUND MIDDAY FRI...AND THEN PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM  04N85W TO 05N98W TO 04.5N120W TO BEYOND
03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 96W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N W
OF 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34N127W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO 14N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 22N AND W OF 118W. NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 14 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 12 TO 15
FT PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W
TO 22N140W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 9 FT SATURDAY.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050344
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING...WITH A 2225 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS ACROSS THE REGION
SHOWING WINDS TO 50 KT...AND A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STORM FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND DIMINISH TO 40-45 KT BY AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY. SEAS JUST
DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BUILD TO 20 FT OR GREATER INTO
EARLY FRI WHILE THE NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT
WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG GALES TO
NEAR 45 KT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WINDS...AND AGAIN REACH
STORM FORCE SAT EVENING. ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...WITH THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 300 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO
PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...WITH LARGE AREAS TO 30 KT EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A 0000 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS
SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS JUST DOWNWIND OF
THE TIBURON BASIN...AND A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. THESE
WINDS ARE ALSO FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE
PACIFIC WATERS OUT AS FAR AS 120 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO
8-11 FT INSIDE THE GULF IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
AROUND MIDDAY FRI...AND THEN PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM  04N85W TO 05N98W TO 04.5N120W TO BEYOND
03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 96W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N W
OF 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34N127W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO 14N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 22N AND W OF 118W. NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 14 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 12 TO 15
FT PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W
TO 22N140W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 9 FT SATURDAY.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050344
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING...WITH A 2225 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS ACROSS THE REGION
SHOWING WINDS TO 50 KT...AND A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STORM FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND DIMINISH TO 40-45 KT BY AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY. SEAS JUST
DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BUILD TO 20 FT OR GREATER INTO
EARLY FRI WHILE THE NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT
WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG GALES TO
NEAR 45 KT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WINDS...AND AGAIN REACH
STORM FORCE SAT EVENING. ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...WITH THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 300 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO
PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...WITH LARGE AREAS TO 30 KT EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A 0000 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS
SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS JUST DOWNWIND OF
THE TIBURON BASIN...AND A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. THESE
WINDS ARE ALSO FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE
PACIFIC WATERS OUT AS FAR AS 120 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO
8-11 FT INSIDE THE GULF IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
AROUND MIDDAY FRI...AND THEN PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM  04N85W TO 05N98W TO 04.5N120W TO BEYOND
03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 96W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N W
OF 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34N127W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO 14N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 22N AND W OF 118W. NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 14 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 12 TO 15
FT PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W
TO 22N140W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 9 FT SATURDAY.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXNT20 KNHC 042340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SW PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 21N90W TO 16N92W. THESE WINDS ARE INDUCED
BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N38W TO
01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 21N90W TO 16N92W. THIS TROUGH COUPLED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 20N. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SW GULF MAINLY S OF 24N. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 24N WHILE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE SE
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TO THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...A BROAD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N60W.
THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ALSO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS
ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW
NE OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE NE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW...CENTERED TO
THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF OUR AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 28N AND W OF 79W. TO
THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED TO THE NE OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 20N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N58W TO
THE LOW TO 15N60W. SCATTERED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY
OF THESE FEATURES FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 48W-61W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N48W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 042340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SW PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 21N90W TO 16N92W. THESE WINDS ARE INDUCED
BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N38W TO
01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 21N90W TO 16N92W. THIS TROUGH COUPLED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 20N. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SW GULF MAINLY S OF 24N. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 24N WHILE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE SE
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TO THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...A BROAD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N60W.
THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ALSO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS
ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW
NE OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE NE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW...CENTERED TO
THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF OUR AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 28N AND W OF 79W. TO
THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED TO THE NE OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 20N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N58W TO
THE LOW TO 15N60W. SCATTERED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY
OF THESE FEATURES FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 48W-61W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N48W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 042340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SW PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 21N90W TO 16N92W. THESE WINDS ARE INDUCED
BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N38W TO
01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 21N90W TO 16N92W. THIS TROUGH COUPLED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 20N. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SW GULF MAINLY S OF 24N. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 24N WHILE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE SE
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TO THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...A BROAD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N60W.
THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ALSO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS
ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW
NE OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE NE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW...CENTERED TO
THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF OUR AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 28N AND W OF 79W. TO
THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED TO THE NE OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 20N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N58W TO
THE LOW TO 15N60W. SCATTERED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY
OF THESE FEATURES FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 48W-61W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N48W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. 1600
UTC ASCAT WIND DATA ACROSS THE AREA SHOWED WINDS TO 40 KT...
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 20 FT OR GREATER INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL GENERATED
FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW STORM FORCE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN STRONG GALES TO NEAR 45 KT THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING AGAIN SAT
EVENING. WITH ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A LONG LIVED
GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 06.5N97W TO 05N110W TO 03.5N130W
TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 02N TO06N E OF 82W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
113W AND 128W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N127W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO 14N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...WITH AREAS TO 30 KT. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO
FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BAJA PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS OUT AS FAR AS 150
NM OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8-11 FT INSIDE THE GULF TODAY.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY PERSIST OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 23N AND W OF 115W. NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 13 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 12 TO 16
FT PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N122W
TO 23N140W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT SATURDAY.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTED THIS
MORNING IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE TAIL OF A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF N
AND NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N36W TO
01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO 25N86W...THEN ALONG THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN N ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF GENERATE A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGING ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. GALE-FORCE
WINDS STARTED THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF N AND NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY FRI
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN N ATLC
EXTENDS TO THE SE GULF AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TO THE NE
OF PUERTO RICO...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SUPPORTS
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 20N59W EXTENDS SW AND COVERS THE REMAINDER
EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THIS LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE LOW IN THE ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW JUST TO THE N OF
PUERTO RICO BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA SAT
MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE N TO NE
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THIS REGION.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COVER THE NW
WATERS W OF 78W THROUGH EARLY SAT. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS A 1011 MB LOW OVER ATLC WATERS NE OF PUERTO RICO
APPROACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS BY FRI MORNING AND THEN OVER
HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS A 1011 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ATLC
WATERS NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N59W. THE LOW IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THE LOW
WILL SHIFT SW TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THIS REGION FRIDAY. THEN WILL MOVE W TO OVER
HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SW N ATLC
WATERS THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
EARLY SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
GREATER THAN 20 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A REINFORCING FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING SAT
EVENING. AND...WITH ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY
LONG LIVED GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 06N95W...AND RESUMES W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 06N99W TO 03N120W TO 02N140W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N95W TO 02N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
360 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 133W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND
116W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 16N108W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC
WATERS TO NEAR 22N111W. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OUT
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 23N AND W OF 113W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FT IS
PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE BROAD
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT SATURDAY.

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041603 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
GREATER THAN 20 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A REINFORCING FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING SAT
EVENING. AND...WITH ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY
LONG LIVED GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 06N95W...AND RESUMES W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 06N99W TO 03N120W TO 02N140W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N95W TO 02N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
360 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 133W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM OF WITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND
116W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 16N108W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC
WATERS TO NEAR 22N111W. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OUT
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 23N AND W OF 113W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FT IS
PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE BROAD
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT SATURDAY.

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041603
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
GREATER THAN 20 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A REINFORCING FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING SAT
EVENING. AND...WITH ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY
LONG LIVED GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 06N95W...AND RESUMES W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 06N99W TO 03N120W TO 02N140W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N95W TO 02N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
360 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 133W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM OF WITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND
116W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 16N108W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC
WATERS TO NEAR 22N111W. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OUT
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 23N AND W OF 113W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FT IS
PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE BROAD
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT SATURDAY.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041603 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
GREATER THAN 20 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A REINFORCING FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING SAT
EVENING. AND...WITH ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY
LONG LIVED GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 06N95W...AND RESUMES W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 06N99W TO 03N120W TO 02N140W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N95W TO 02N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
360 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 133W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM OF WITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND
116W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 16N108W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC
WATERS TO NEAR 22N111W. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OUT
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 23N AND W OF 113W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FT IS
PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE BROAD
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT SATURDAY.

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041603 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
GREATER THAN 20 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A REINFORCING FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING SAT
EVENING. AND...WITH ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY
LONG LIVED GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 06N95W...AND RESUMES W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 06N99W TO 03N120W TO 02N140W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N95W TO 02N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
360 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 133W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM OF WITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND
116W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 16N108W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC
WATERS TO NEAR 22N111W. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OUT
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 23N AND W OF 113W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FT IS
PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE BROAD
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT SATURDAY.

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS RETURNING TO THE SW GULF
LATER THIS MORNING THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N20W ALONG 2N26W 2N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE BIG BEND
AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 25N90W TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 21N93W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF
26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
OVER E TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW TO THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING THEN
SHIFTING E TOWARD THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN AND COUPLED
WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 80W-85W TO OVER W
CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT MORNING PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE E COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WILL MOVE W FROM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THU AFTERNOON
INTO FRI. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI
BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE HAITI FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRI AND SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N68W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
NEAR 21N58W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO A 1010
MB LOW NEAR 22N57W CONTINUING S ALONG 18N56W THEN W TO 16N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N
BETWEEN 54W-61W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS INDUCED TO THE E OF THE UPPER
LOW WHICH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N-26N BETWEEN 46W-53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH OFF
THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE W ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A
WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SHIFT W THROUGH FRI AS IT WEAKENS THEN
DISSIPATES OVER HAITI FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT DEVELOPING A NEW COLD FRONT
ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040904
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO GREATER THAN 20 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WITH REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY LONG LIVED
GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 05N110W TO 02N125W TO 02N135W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED  FROM 05N TO 08N W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 14N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 28N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH
SMALL ISOLATED AREAS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO
FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES
INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 20N111W. THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO
THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N AND W OF 112W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE
8 TO 12 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
WILL PERSIST MAINTAIN THIS BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW
SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 15
FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040904
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO GREATER THAN 20 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WITH REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY LONG LIVED
GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 05N110W TO 02N125W TO 02N135W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED  FROM 05N TO 08N W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 14N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 28N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH
SMALL ISOLATED AREAS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO
FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES
INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 20N111W. THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO
THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N AND W OF 112W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE
8 TO 12 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
WILL PERSIST MAINTAIN THIS BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW
SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 15
FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY.

$$
AL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040904
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO GREATER THAN 20 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WITH REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY LONG LIVED
GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 05N110W TO 02N125W TO 02N135W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED  FROM 05N TO 08N W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 14N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 28N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH
SMALL ISOLATED AREAS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO
FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES
INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 20N111W. THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO
THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N AND W OF 112W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE
8 TO 12 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
WILL PERSIST MAINTAIN THIS BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW
SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 15
FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 040554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N19W ALONG 2N27W 1N35W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR FROM 41W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 23W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 27N88W 25N91W TO A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 21N93W THEN INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W
TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES THAT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH ON THU. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG 21N93W TO THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU MORNING THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR E BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY THU EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN AND COUPLED
WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 17N W OF 79W TO OVER W CUBA.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT MORNING PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF HAITI. AN
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W FROM
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI BRINGING MOISTURE TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
THEN MERGE WITH A FRONT OVER THE SW ATLC FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N69W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
NEAR 23N58W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 23N56W CONTINUING S TO 16N56W. THE UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS INDUCED TO THE E OF THE UPPER
LOW WHICH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 46W-53W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM
13N55W TO 15N52W THEN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N52W TO
20N50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NE OFF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC
LATE THU AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
EARLY FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT
BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NW THROUGH
FRI AS IT WEAKENS THEN IT WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT SAT. A
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT DEVELOPING
A NEW COLD FRONT ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 040554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N19W ALONG 2N27W 1N35W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR FROM 41W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 23W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 27N88W 25N91W TO A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 21N93W THEN INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W
TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES THAT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH ON THU. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG 21N93W TO THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU MORNING THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR E BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY THU EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN AND COUPLED
WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 17N W OF 79W TO OVER W CUBA.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT MORNING PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF HAITI. AN
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W FROM
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI BRINGING MOISTURE TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
THEN MERGE WITH A FRONT OVER THE SW ATLC FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N69W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
NEAR 23N58W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 23N56W CONTINUING S TO 16N56W. THE UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS INDUCED TO THE E OF THE UPPER
LOW WHICH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 46W-53W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM
13N55W TO 15N52W THEN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N52W TO
20N50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NE OFF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC
LATE THU AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
EARLY FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT
BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NW THROUGH
FRI AS IT WEAKENS THEN IT WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT SAT. A
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT DEVELOPING
A NEW COLD FRONT ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N19W ALONG 2N27W 1N35W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR FROM 41W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 23W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 27N88W 25N91W TO A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 21N93W THEN INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W
TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES THAT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH ON THU. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG 21N93W TO THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU MORNING THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR E BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY THU EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN AND COUPLED
WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 17N W OF 79W TO OVER W CUBA.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT MORNING PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF HAITI. AN
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W FROM
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI BRINGING MOISTURE TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
THEN MERGE WITH A FRONT OVER THE SW ATLC FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N69W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
NEAR 23N58W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 23N56W CONTINUING S TO 16N56W. THE UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS INDUCED TO THE E OF THE UPPER
LOW WHICH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 46W-53W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM
13N55W TO 15N52W THEN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N52W TO
20N50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NE OFF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC
LATE THU AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
EARLY FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT
BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NW THROUGH
FRI AS IT WEAKENS THEN IT WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT SAT. A
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT DEVELOPING
A NEW COLD FRONT ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...CURRENTLY FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPILL ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. HOWEVER MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO RAPIDLY
FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...QUICKLY REACHING STRONG
GALES EARLY THU. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY...REACHING STORM FORCE BY THU EVENING...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO GREATER THAN 20 FT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH THE
FRESH NE SWELL PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GALES MAY PERSIST ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N94W TO 05N105W
TO 06N117W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 05.5N TO 08N
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 108W AND
113W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W...AND FROM 01N TO
03N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 30N126W THIS
EVENING AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 20N113W TO 13N102W AND
ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SMALL ISOLATED AREAS TO
NEAR GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO VEERING N TO NE AND
FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES
INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 21N111W. MEANWHILE THE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SPILLING OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
EXTEND S TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NW AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH VERY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N AND W OF 112W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE
8 TO 12 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
WILL PERSIST AND ACT TO MAINTAIN THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NEW
PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL IS MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS TONIGHT...
WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...THEN
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STRONGER AND MORE
EXPANSIVE GAP WIND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
AS HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTENSIFIES.
DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO THE NW WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW EXPECTED TO
BEGIN PULSING TONIGHT. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE THU NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 032335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING
GALE-FORCE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF
20N AND W OF 90W ON THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 02N33W TO 00N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS AT ABOUT 50 NM S OF THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 996 MB
LOW NEAR 46N80W...FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING
THE NE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 26N92W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W THEN TO 18N95W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION MAINLY N OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE
BASIN. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN.
THIS WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THIS AREA ON THURSDAY.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN PROVIDING STABLE
AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OBSERVED MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN N OF 17N ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 70W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO
WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDES STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 43N59W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N54W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
29N55W TO THE LOW TO 20N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
SURROUNDS THESE FEATURES MAINLY N OF 17N BETWEEN 47W-57W. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1042 MB HIGH NW OF PORTUGAL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 032335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING
GALE-FORCE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF
20N AND W OF 90W ON THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 02N33W TO 00N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS AT ABOUT 50 NM S OF THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 996 MB
LOW NEAR 46N80W...FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING
THE NE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 26N92W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W THEN TO 18N95W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION MAINLY N OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE
BASIN. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN.
THIS WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THIS AREA ON THURSDAY.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN PROVIDING STABLE
AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OBSERVED MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN N OF 17N ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 70W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO
WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDES STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 43N59W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N54W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
29N55W TO THE LOW TO 20N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
SURROUNDS THESE FEATURES MAINLY N OF 17N BETWEEN 47W-57W. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1042 MB HIGH NW OF PORTUGAL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 032335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING
GALE-FORCE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF
20N AND W OF 90W ON THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 02N33W TO 00N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS AT ABOUT 50 NM S OF THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 996 MB
LOW NEAR 46N80W...FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING
THE NE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 26N92W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W THEN TO 18N95W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION MAINLY N OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE
BASIN. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN.
THIS WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THIS AREA ON THURSDAY.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN PROVIDING STABLE
AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OBSERVED MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN N OF 17N ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 70W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO
WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDES STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 43N59W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N54W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
29N55W TO THE LOW TO 20N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
SURROUNDS THESE FEATURES MAINLY N OF 17N BETWEEN 47W-57W. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1042 MB HIGH NW OF PORTUGAL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032204
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION...WITH SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS. HOWEVER MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY WILL ALLOW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO RAPIDLY FUNNEL
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS
EVENING...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...QUICKLY REACHING STRONG
GALES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY...REACHING STORM FORCE BY THU EVENING WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO GREATER THAN 20 FT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH
THE FRESH NE SWELL PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GALES MAY PERSIST ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N94W TO 05N105W
TO 06N117W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 05.5N TO 08N
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 108W AND
113W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W...AND FROM 01N TO
03N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 30N127W THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 20N113W TO 13N102W AND
ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGHING ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SMALL ISOLATED AREAS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO VEERING N TO NE AND
FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES
INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS TO 21N111W. MEANWHILE THE FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS SPILLING OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S
TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHILE
EXPANDING TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF AS THE TROUGHING DEEPENS AND
EXPANDS TO THE NW. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND FILTER THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA PASSES DURING THIS TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 22N AND W
OF 112W. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA
TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 13 FT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WILL PERSIST AND ACT TO MAINTAIN THE BROAD AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 16 FT NEAR 30N140W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...DIMINISHING
BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STRONGER AND MORE EXPANSIVE GAP WIND
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRES
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTENSIFIES. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO THE NW WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW EXPECTED TO
BEGIN PULSING TONIGHT. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE THU NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF AND STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO GENERATE GALE-
FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW BASIN THU MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
THU NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 04N21W 01N36W TO
01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 04N W OF
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE N TO NE CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 994
MB LOW NEAR 44N82W...FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING
THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W AND
CONTINUING ALONG 25N92W TO A 1010 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N94W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF
SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF 27N. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W
AND 90W...COINCIDING WITH IFR IMAGERY MEDIUM TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT IN THE SW BASIN TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS
THU. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE
BASIN FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING STABLE/FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF
HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ALSO
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AS INDICATED BY LATEST SCAT
DATA...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDES STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 45N62W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO 60W. TO THE EAST...A NARROW MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUPPORT A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 24N55W AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
28N56W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 20N58W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N TO 30N
BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRES ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NW OF PORTUGAL. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WILL ENTER THE
SW N ATLC EARLY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF AND STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO GENERATE GALE-
FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW BASIN THU MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
THU NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 04N21W 01N36W TO
01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 04N W OF
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE N TO NE CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 994
MB LOW NEAR 44N82W...FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING
THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W AND
CONTINUING ALONG 25N92W TO A 1010 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N94W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF
SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF 27N. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W
AND 90W...COINCIDING WITH IFR IMAGERY MEDIUM TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT IN THE SW BASIN TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS
THU. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE
BASIN FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING STABLE/FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF
HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ALSO
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AS INDICATED BY LATEST SCAT
DATA...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDES STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 45N62W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO 60W. TO THE EAST...A NARROW MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUPPORT A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 24N55W AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
28N56W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 20N58W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N TO 30N
BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRES ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NW OF PORTUGAL. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WILL ENTER THE
SW N ATLC EARLY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF AND STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO GENERATE GALE-
FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW BASIN THU MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
THU NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 04N21W 01N36W TO
01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 04N W OF
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE N TO NE CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 994
MB LOW NEAR 44N82W...FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING
THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W AND
CONTINUING ALONG 25N92W TO A 1010 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N94W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF
SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF 27N. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W
AND 90W...COINCIDING WITH IFR IMAGERY MEDIUM TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT IN THE SW BASIN TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS
THU. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE
BASIN FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING STABLE/FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF
HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ALSO
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AS INDICATED BY LATEST SCAT
DATA...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDES STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 45N62W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO 60W. TO THE EAST...A NARROW MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUPPORT A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 24N55W AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
28N56W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 20N58W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N TO 30N
BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRES ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NW OF PORTUGAL. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WILL ENTER THE
SW N ATLC EARLY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031521
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS HOWEVER MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY FUNNEL
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
QUICKLY REACHING STRONG GALE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE REACHING STORM FORCE BY THU EVENING WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER
THAN 20 FT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH THE FRESH NE SWELL
PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N94W TO
05N105W TO 06N117W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 06N TO
08N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 108W AND
113W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W...AND ALSO FROM 01N
TO 03N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB NEAR 30N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
20N113W TO 15N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 25N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGHING ACROSS
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THESE WINDS ARE FILTERING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE
OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS TO 21N111W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ALSO OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHILE EXPANDING TO
COVER THE ENTIRE GULF AS THE TROUGHING DEEPENS AND EXPANDS TO
THE NW...WITH ADDITIONAL FILTERING THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA PASSES ALSO EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W
OF 112W. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA
TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NEW PULSE OF
LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO UP TO 16 FT NEAR 30N140W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG IN THE GULF TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...DIMINISHING BY
EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STRONGER AND MORE EXPANSIVE GAP WIND
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRES
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTENSIFIES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT BY SUNRISE FRI.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO THE NW WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW EXPECTED TO
PULSE TONIGHT. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE THU NIGHT.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF
STARTING THU MORNING S OF 21N W OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
29N83W ALONG 22N91W TO 19N93W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO
THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N17W ALONG 4N23W 3N31W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI THEN ACROSS SE LOUISIANA ALONG
26N94W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG
THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. PATCHES
OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT TO WITHIN 45
NM ALONG THE COAST TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA WHERE SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY. THE LEADING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE E REACHING FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THU NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF ON THU THROUGH EARLY
THU EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 72W-85W
INCLUDING SW HAITI AND N JAMAICA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF BELIZE FRI NIGHT. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SW HAITI. THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY GIVING THE ISLAND CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THU NIGHT. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT W OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE THU AND FRI WHICH COULD BRING
MORE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND ON FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC CONTINUING N TO OVER NEW ENGLAND. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH JUST
E OF MAINE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 56W GENERATING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N BETWEEN
50W-58W. BASED ON A SCATTEROMETER PASS...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N56W ALONG 26N57W 25N60W TO 20N63W. A SECOND
WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 19N53W TO 25N52W.
DIFFLUNCE AT THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
45W-52W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATE THU AND
WILL EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI MORNING
AND FROM 32N64W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT MORNING BEFORE
RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR 60W WILL SHIFT E TO 55W TONIGHT THEN RETREAT NW
PASSING 65W FRI AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT
SAT. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030911
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND
REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BRINGING A RAPID ONSET TO THE GAP WIND EVENT LATE
TONIGHT. MARINERS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD EXPECT A
RAPID DETERIORATION IN MARINE CONDITIONS AS WINDS INCREASE FROM
LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING TO GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 20
FT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N89W TO 04N107W TO 06N118W TO 04N124W
TO06N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 91W AND 101W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 113W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 31N127W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N106W AND SW TO BEYOND 26N140W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LARGE NW SWELL GENERATING SEAS OF 10-13 FT CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OUT TO 120W...RESULTING IN HIGH SEAS AND
DANGEROUS SURF...WITH ROUGH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT INSIDE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF TO
30N BY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE S PORTION OF
THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT ON THU.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 20-22N AND
W OF 116W. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH THE NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS
AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE COVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN WATERS N OF 04N AND W OF 111W. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE
NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO 14 FT.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF
STARTING THU MORNING S OF 21N W OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
30N83W ALONG 22N92W TO 18.5N93W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
TO THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3N15W ALONG 2N21W 3N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16N-19N AND FROM 2N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHARPENED DUE TO A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO
OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0300
UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS TO
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 25N95W CONTINUING S INTO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA
TO ACROSS FLORIDA THEN INTO THE W ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THU INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE
THE GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF THU. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE GULF INTO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N75W THEN ALONG 18N81W ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN FROM 14N-20N INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
HAITI. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM W CUBA TO N/CENTRAL HONDURAS WHERE IT
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FRI THROUGH SAT. THE 1016 MB LOW N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE THEN BE NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED. THE LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE THU WHILE
THE SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT
WESTWARD INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER HAITI
TONIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DISSIPATE WED GIVING THE
ISLAND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THU NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND FRI
WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND ON FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA TO ACROSS FLORIDA THEN INTO THE W ATLC
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUING N TO OVER CANADA. A
WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N63W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 20N66W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO 23N55W GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
22N BETWEEN 50W-59W. DIFFLUNCE AT THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 45W-49W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH N-
NE OF THE AZORES. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W
ATLC THU EVENING AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N63W TO W/CENTRAL CUBA SAT
MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING. THE 1016 MB LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TODAY AND BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL THEN DRIFT W THU NIGHT AND FRI INTO THE SW ATLC AND NE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WATERS ON SUN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE WINDS AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CONUS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030337
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW REACHING THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO AND CHIVELA PASS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BEGIN
AROUND 0600 UTC THU AND QUICKLY STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 45 KT BY
1800 UTC THU AFTERNOON...WITH STORM FORCE WIND CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THU DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05.5N86W TO 06N96W TO 03N112W TO
04N119W TO 05N138W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 91W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 112W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N127W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
TO 13N103W AND SW TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE OF
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LARGE NW SWELL GENERATING SEAS OF 10-14 FT CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OUT TO 120W...RESULTING IN HIGH SEAS
AND DANGEROUS SURF...WITH ROUGH SEAS PRESENTLY BUILDING TO 6-8
FT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N. THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN VERY
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
20-30 KT ACROSS BOTH E AND W SIDES OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
GULF TO 30N BY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS
OF THE GULF THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TONIGHT TO 8-10 FT ACROSS S
PORTIONS AND REACH 8-11 FT ON THU.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 20-22N AND
W OF 111W. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH THE NE WIND WAVES THERE TO
PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 113W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS
BY WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT.

GAP WINDS...A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE TYPICAL GAP WIND ZONES OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED
AND INCREASE GAP WINDS SLIGHTLY WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS
MAY REACH 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 022349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 30N94W TO A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
23N97W TO 23N98W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALREADY
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF. AS THE FRONT
MOVES E AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF MAINLY S OF 21N AND W 92W BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N12W TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM ONE
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR US SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS W LOUISIANA. THE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N94W TO A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N97W TO 23N98W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N97W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
FRONT AFFECTING THE NW GULF WATERS W OF 94W. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
FOG BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 26N. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
LOW AND FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PERSISTENT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N
OF 14N. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY
THE TRADES AFFECTING THE ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA FROM THE N WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
25N64W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 21N73W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BETWEEN
50W-60W MAINLY S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N62W
TO 33N50W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
39N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE E WITH CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE E OF THE LOW
CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 022349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 30N94W TO A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
23N97W TO 23N98W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALREADY
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF. AS THE FRONT
MOVES E AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF MAINLY S OF 21N AND W 92W BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N12W TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM ONE
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR US SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS W LOUISIANA. THE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N94W TO A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N97W TO 23N98W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N97W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
FRONT AFFECTING THE NW GULF WATERS W OF 94W. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
FOG BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 26N. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
LOW AND FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PERSISTENT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N
OF 14N. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY
THE TRADES AFFECTING THE ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA FROM THE N WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
25N64W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 21N73W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BETWEEN
50W-60W MAINLY S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N62W
TO 33N50W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
39N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE E WITH CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE E OF THE LOW
CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 022349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 30N94W TO A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
23N97W TO 23N98W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALREADY
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF. AS THE FRONT
MOVES E AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF MAINLY S OF 21N AND W 92W BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N12W TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM ONE
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR US SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS W LOUISIANA. THE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N94W TO A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N97W TO 23N98W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N97W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
FRONT AFFECTING THE NW GULF WATERS W OF 94W. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
FOG BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 26N. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
LOW AND FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PERSISTENT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N
OF 14N. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY
THE TRADES AFFECTING THE ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA FROM THE N WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
25N64W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 21N73W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BETWEEN
50W-60W MAINLY S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N62W
TO 33N50W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
39N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE E WITH CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE E OF THE LOW
CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities