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000
WTPQ83 PGUM 070339
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.0 EAST.

ABOUT  680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  635 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  690 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  485 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON NANGKA
APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM CHST THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

SIMPSON


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 070339
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.0 EAST.

ABOUT  680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  635 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  690 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  485 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON NANGKA
APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM CHST THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 070244
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 155.0E

ABOUT  680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  635 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  690 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  485 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WILL BE
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.0 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 110 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 070244
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 155.0E

ABOUT  680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  635 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  690 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  485 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WILL BE
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.0 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 110 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070242
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES 1005 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 12N134W...OR ABOUT 1260 NM ESE
OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE E AND 240
NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W...AND ALSO
FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 138W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-12 FT
SEAS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 540 NM IN THE N QUADRANT AND 420 NM IN
THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS LOW
HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO
05N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM N OF A LINE FROM 08N78W TO 05N82W TO 08N86W...AND
FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND FROM
03N TO 05N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 120W
AND 123W WITH THESE AREAS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N127W EXTENDS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 21N...W OF 116W. MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE N OF 21N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER
MENTIONED ABOVE.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL
PROPAGATE OFF TO THE W-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SNEAKING N OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE N-NE THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN WED NIGHT AND THIS SETUP COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF THU.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070206
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM STILL MOVING WESTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 136.8E

ABOUT  585 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  625 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  620 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  810 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WILL BE
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8 DEGREES EAST.
CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT HEADING FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 85 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 125
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070206
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM STILL MOVING WESTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 136.8E

ABOUT  585 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  625 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  620 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  810 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WILL BE
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8 DEGREES EAST.
CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT HEADING FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 85 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 125
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 070057
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 155.5E

ABOUT  715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  765 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  670 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  725 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  450 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  460 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 13.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.5 DEGREES EAST. NANGKA
WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE NORTHERN CNMI ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 100 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

SIMPSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N54W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N67W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN EASTERLY
700 MB FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-73W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N21W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 07N46W TO 07N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N87W. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO TRUE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N89W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF 80W SHIFTS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 65W OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
THAT THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N. EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE 66W...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS
EVENING DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE PRIME IMPACT ACROSS THE BASIN
REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...WITH EVEN NEAR
GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITHIN NW FLOW ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N70W. LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE
CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
SLOW TO MOVE...IT IS LIKELY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR
TUESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N81W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 35N74W TO 31N78W TO 27N80W.
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FAIRLY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W THAT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 64W-71W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WESTERN
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N64W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N54W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N67W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN EASTERLY
700 MB FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-73W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N21W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 07N46W TO 07N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N87W. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO TRUE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N89W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF 80W SHIFTS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 65W OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
THAT THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N. EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE 66W...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS
EVENING DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE PRIME IMPACT ACROSS THE BASIN
REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...WITH EVEN NEAR
GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITHIN NW FLOW ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N70W. LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE
CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
SLOW TO MOVE...IT IS LIKELY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR
TUESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N81W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 35N74W TO 31N78W TO 27N80W.
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FAIRLY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W THAT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 64W-71W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WESTERN
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N64W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 062346
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO HAWAII CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EATON/WROE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 062346
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO HAWAII CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EATON/WROE





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the large area of low
pressure located about 1450 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical cyclone will likely form over the next day or two while
the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the large area of low
pressure located about 1450 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical cyclone will likely form over the next day or two while
the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the large area of low
pressure located about 1450 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical cyclone will likely form over the next day or two while
the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 062331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 062331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ABNT20 KNHC 062328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 062328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 062320
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.1 EAST.

ABOUT  755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  765 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  440 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  470 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IN CASE A TYPHOON WARNING IS
ISSUED. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND DAMAGING WINDS
COULD LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALREADY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND
COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 20 FEET BY THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON NANGKA
APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

SIMPSON


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 062320
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.1 EAST.

ABOUT  755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  765 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  440 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  470 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IN CASE A TYPHOON WARNING IS
ISSUED. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND DAMAGING WINDS
COULD LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALREADY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND
COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 20 FEET BY THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON NANGKA
APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 062137
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 156.1E

ABOUT  440 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  470 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  765 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 062137
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 137.7E

ABOUT  525 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  570 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.7 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT
HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 105
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 062137
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 156.1E

ABOUT  440 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  470 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  765 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 062137
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 137.7E

ABOUT  525 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  570 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.7 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT
HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 105
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 062137
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 137.7E

ABOUT  525 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  570 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.7 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT
HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 105
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062115
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES 1006 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N132.5W...OR ABOUT 1390 NM
ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
300 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 420 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WITHIN 510 NM IN THE N QUADRANT AND WITHIN 420 NM IN THE
SE SEMICIRCLE WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE ALSO LIKELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 08N95W TO 05N110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N
TO 10N E OF 85W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N130W EXTENDS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 19N...W OF 115W. A WEAK TROUGH IS
MOVING EASTWARD JUST N OF 30N AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY N OF THE
AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS.

THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WAS JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE GULF AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL
PROPAGATE OFF TO THE W-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL SNEAK N OF THE EQUATOR
BY WED BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO AROUND 120W THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062115
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES 1006 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N132.5W...OR ABOUT 1390 NM
ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
300 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 420 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WITHIN 510 NM IN THE N QUADRANT AND WITHIN 420 NM IN THE
SE SEMICIRCLE WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE ALSO LIKELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 08N95W TO 05N110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N
TO 10N E OF 85W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N130W EXTENDS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 19N...W OF 115W. A WEAK TROUGH IS
MOVING EASTWARD JUST N OF 30N AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY N OF THE
AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS.

THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WAS JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE GULF AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL
PROPAGATE OFF TO THE W-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL SNEAK N OF THE EQUATOR
BY WED BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO AROUND 120W THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
ACPN50 PHFO 061752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ONLY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

EATON/WROE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 061752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ONLY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

EATON/WROE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 061752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ONLY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

EATON/WROE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 061752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ONLY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

EATON/WROE





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system located about 1600 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system located about 1600 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system located about 1600 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system located about 1600 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 061706
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 061706
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 6 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N131W IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POOR...BUT IS IMPROVING AS IT MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
IT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-
5 DAYS AS IT MOVES NW TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY TUE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 127W IS MERGING INTO THE LARGER
SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 11N131W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 10N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-92W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N81W TO 09N87W TO 07N92W
TO 06N1109W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N109W TO 07N119W TO 10N122W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N E OF
87W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N104W...WHICH IS ENHANCING A LINE OF
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13.5N102W TO
12N106W TO 09N107W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO EVIDENT MOVING W
ALONG 115W-116W S OF 15N.

WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N128W EXTENDS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 21N...W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 11N131W IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N AND
SE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. EXPECT WINDS
TO CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP AROUND THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AS
IT MOVES NW THROUGH WED...PRODUCING 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 360 NM
OF THE CENTER EXCEPT IN THE SW QUADRANT WHERE WINDS WILL BE 15-
20 KT...AND MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 12-14 FT.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE
IN A DIURNAL CYCLE THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER 25 KT
EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 8 FT OR LESS BETWEEN 88W-92W DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AREA
OF MAX WINDS THROUGH WED.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL SWEEP NORTHWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO AROUND
120W THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE THU AND FRI.

$$
MUNDELL


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...NANGKA HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 157.1E

ABOUT  385 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  490 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  785 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  830 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  835 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI AROUND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...NANGKA HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 157.1E

ABOUT  385 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  490 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  785 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  830 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  835 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI AROUND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system centered about 1700 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in
organization during the past few hours.  However, environmental
conditions are expected to be become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system centered about 1700 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in
organization during the past few hours.  However, environmental
conditions are expected to be become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system centered about 1700 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in
organization during the past few hours.  However, environmental
conditions are expected to be become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system centered about 1700 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in
organization during the past few hours.  However, environmental
conditions are expected to be become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ABNT20 KNHC 061124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABNT20 KNHC 061124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABNT20 KNHC 061124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 061124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
6N-14N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 88W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N21W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 7N17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE
AND GUINEA BORDER AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 54W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. THE DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 93W FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 95W.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING MOST SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT
STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
BASIN TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AND
OUT OF THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE S COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS
KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL
BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND
FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. LARGE UPPER
LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND DIPS S OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF
THE FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N40W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N62W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST REMAINS COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N
TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
6N-14N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 88W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N21W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 7N17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE
AND GUINEA BORDER AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 54W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. THE DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 93W FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 95W.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING MOST SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT
STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
BASIN TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AND
OUT OF THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE S COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS
KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL
BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND
FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. LARGE UPPER
LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND DIPS S OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF
THE FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N40W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N62W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST REMAINS COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N
TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
6N-14N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 88W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N21W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 7N17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE
AND GUINEA BORDER AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 54W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. THE DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 93W FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 95W.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING MOST SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT
STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
BASIN TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AND
OUT OF THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE S COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS
KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL
BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND
FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. LARGE UPPER
LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND DIPS S OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF
THE FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N40W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N62W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST REMAINS COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N
TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N130W...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N129W. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STEADILY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
FORM BY TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W/114W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 126W/127W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN EVIDENT
CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT
IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. IT IS DRIFTING
CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 10N130W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY LOSE
ITS DISTINCT DEFINITION AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA OF THE 1006
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N77W TO 07N81W TO 09N86W TO 07N92W
TO 05N110W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N
TO 10N E OF 88W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 99W...AND FROM
09N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 37N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM
24N140W TO 25N130W BEYOND 29N115W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM TO
210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N140W 27N130W
BEYOND 32N117W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N115W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N111W AND 19N104W
AT THE COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N110W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N127W...BEYOND 30N140W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FEET...AND PROPAGATING AS FAR TO THE
WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
YESTERDAY...AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THIS
TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN DOWN AS THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE LOW CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N140W...AND THEN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N148W. THE FAIRLY WEAK 1019
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE RIDGE ARE MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...EXCEPT
NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS DUE TO ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 15N129W.

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N130W...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N129W. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STEADILY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
FORM BY TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W/114W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 126W/127W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN EVIDENT
CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT
IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. IT IS DRIFTING
CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 10N130W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY LOSE
ITS DISTINCT DEFINITION AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA OF THE 1006
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N77W TO 07N81W TO 09N86W TO 07N92W
TO 05N110W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N
TO 10N E OF 88W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 99W...AND FROM
09N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 37N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM
24N140W TO 25N130W BEYOND 29N115W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM TO
210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N140W 27N130W
BEYOND 32N117W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N115W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N111W AND 19N104W
AT THE COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N110W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N127W...BEYOND 30N140W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FEET...AND PROPAGATING AS FAR TO THE
WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
YESTERDAY...AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THIS
TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN DOWN AS THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE LOW CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N140W...AND THEN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N148W. THE FAIRLY WEAK 1019
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE RIDGE ARE MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...EXCEPT
NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS DUE TO ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 15N129W.

$$
MT


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 060958 CCA
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

CORRECTED WIND RADII

...NANGKA IS NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 158.2E

ABOUT  285 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  345 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  525 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  865 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  910 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  915 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.2 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA EAST THE NORTHERN CNMI AROUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. EXTENDING OUTWARD
FROM THE CENTER...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE UP TO 15 MILES AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE UP TO 110 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060951
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 140.2E

ABOUT  375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1005 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.2 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON AGAIN TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060951
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 140.2E

ABOUT  375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1005 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.2 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON AGAIN TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060951
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 140.2E

ABOUT  375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1005 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.2 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON AGAIN TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060951
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 140.2E

ABOUT  375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1005 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.2 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON AGAIN TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060951
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 140.2E

ABOUT  375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1005 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.2 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON AGAIN TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 060921
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...NANGKA IS NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 158.2E

ABOUT  285 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  345 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  525 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  865 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  910 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  915 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.2 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA EAST THE NORTHERN CNMI AROUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTER...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE 15 MILES AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE 110 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 060545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AROUND A
WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 060545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AROUND A
WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers activity.  Development of this disturbance is
not expected since upper-level winds are becoming more unfavorable.
The low is forecast to move slowly westward or over the next several
days and gradually weaken. This disturbance is moving into the
central Pacific Ocean basin, and further information can be found in
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A large low pressure system is centered about 1800 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. During the past several
hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
more concentrated near the center of the low. Environmental
conditions are steadily becoming more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form by Tuesday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and AWIPS header
HFOTWOCP.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers activity.  Development of this disturbance is
not expected since upper-level winds are becoming more unfavorable.
The low is forecast to move slowly westward or over the next several
days and gradually weaken. This disturbance is moving into the
central Pacific Ocean basin, and further information can be found in
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A large low pressure system is centered about 1800 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. During the past several
hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
more concentrated near the center of the low. Environmental
conditions are steadily becoming more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form by Tuesday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and AWIPS header
HFOTWOCP.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers activity.  Development of this disturbance is
not expected since upper-level winds are becoming more unfavorable.
The low is forecast to move slowly westward or over the next several
days and gradually weaken. This disturbance is moving into the
central Pacific Ocean basin, and further information can be found in
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A large low pressure system is centered about 1800 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. During the past several
hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
more concentrated near the center of the low. Environmental
conditions are steadily becoming more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form by Tuesday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and AWIPS header
HFOTWOCP.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers activity.  Development of this disturbance is
not expected since upper-level winds are becoming more unfavorable.
The low is forecast to move slowly westward or over the next several
days and gradually weaken. This disturbance is moving into the
central Pacific Ocean basin, and further information can be found in
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A large low pressure system is centered about 1800 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. During the past several
hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
more concentrated near the center of the low. Environmental
conditions are steadily becoming more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form by Tuesday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and AWIPS header
HFOTWOCP.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W
FROM 6N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N52W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N88W TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SEA BREEZE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N
E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA WHERE THE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY
WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR
THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S
COAST OF THE ISLAND MON EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 26N69W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE
FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N41W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
32N59W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N/26N TO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W
FROM 6N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N52W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N88W TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SEA BREEZE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N
E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA WHERE THE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY
WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR
THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S
COAST OF THE ISLAND MON EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 26N69W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE
FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N41W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
32N59W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N/26N TO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W
FROM 6N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N52W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N88W TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SEA BREEZE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N
E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA WHERE THE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY
WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR
THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S
COAST OF THE ISLAND MON EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 26N69W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE
FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N41W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
32N59W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N/26N TO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W
FROM 6N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N52W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N88W TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SEA BREEZE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N
E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA WHERE THE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY
WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR
THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S
COAST OF THE ISLAND MON EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 26N69W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE
FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N41W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
32N59W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N/26N TO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
ABNT20 KNHC 060516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 060516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 060516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 060516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060319
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 142.0E

ABOUT  265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  285 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060319
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 142.0E

ABOUT  265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  285 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060319
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 142.0E

ABOUT  265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  285 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060319
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 142.0E

ABOUT  265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  285 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 060319
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PASSING WELL NORTH OF POHNPEI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 159.1E

ABOUT  225 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  335 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  885 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT  975 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.1 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH.
NANGKA IS EXPECTED CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TODAY...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON BY TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N130W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 111W/112W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 123W/124W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT
IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W
AND MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 06N95W TO 06N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N140W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N130W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 111W/112W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 123W/124W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT
IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W
AND MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 06N95W TO 06N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N140W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N130W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 111W/112W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 123W/124W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT
IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W
AND MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 06N95W TO 06N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N140W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N130W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 111W/112W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 123W/124W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT
IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W
AND MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 06N95W TO 06N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N140W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N47W TO 06N48W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT AROUND
25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE S OF 10N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 10N WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S
OF 10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED
ALSO WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 08N58W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 11N. A DRY
SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS N OF 12N INHIBITING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 54W-
62W. LIKE THE PREVIOUS WAVE DISCUSSED...THIS CONVECTION IS
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N84W TO 11N84W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG 15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N23W TO 08N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 07N46W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
07N49W TO 07N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 42W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
23N88W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES E OF TEXAS AND THE N GULF WATERS N OF 29N.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT
TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SAHARAN AIRMASS
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
S AMERICA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-
80W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ERODES FROM THE W WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT THIS CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. THIS FEATURE...
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE CENTERS
WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BASIN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N47W TO 06N48W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT AROUND
25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE S OF 10N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 10N WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S
OF 10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED
ALSO WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 08N58W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 11N. A DRY
SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS N OF 12N INHIBITING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 54W-
62W. LIKE THE PREVIOUS WAVE DISCUSSED...THIS CONVECTION IS
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N84W TO 11N84W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG 15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N23W TO 08N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 07N46W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
07N49W TO 07N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 42W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
23N88W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES E OF TEXAS AND THE N GULF WATERS N OF 29N.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT
TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SAHARAN AIRMASS
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
S AMERICA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-
80W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ERODES FROM THE W WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT THIS CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. THIS FEATURE...
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE CENTERS
WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BASIN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N47W TO 06N48W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT AROUND
25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE S OF 10N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 10N WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S
OF 10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED
ALSO WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 08N58W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 11N. A DRY
SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS N OF 12N INHIBITING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 54W-
62W. LIKE THE PREVIOUS WAVE DISCUSSED...THIS CONVECTION IS
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N84W TO 11N84W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG 15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N23W TO 08N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 07N46W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
07N49W TO 07N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 42W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
23N88W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES E OF TEXAS AND THE N GULF WATERS N OF 29N.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT
TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SAHARAN AIRMASS
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
S AMERICA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-
80W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ERODES FROM THE W WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT THIS CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. THIS FEATURE...
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE CENTERS
WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BASIN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N47W TO 06N48W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT AROUND
25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE S OF 10N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 10N WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S
OF 10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED
ALSO WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 08N58W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 11N. A DRY
SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS N OF 12N INHIBITING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 54W-
62W. LIKE THE PREVIOUS WAVE DISCUSSED...THIS CONVECTION IS
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N84W TO 11N84W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG 15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N23W TO 08N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 07N46W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
07N49W TO 07N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 42W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
23N88W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES E OF TEXAS AND THE N GULF WATERS N OF 29N.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT
TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SAHARAN AIRMASS
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
S AMERICA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-
80W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ERODES FROM THE W WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT THIS CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. THIS FEATURE...
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE CENTERS
WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BASIN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 052343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

FUJII





000
ACPN50 PHFO 052343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

FUJII






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052320
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1100 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this
disturbance is not expected since upper-level winds are forecast
to become unfavorable in a day or so. The low is expected to drift
westward or west-northwestward over the next several days, and move
into the central Pacific Ocean basin later tonight or on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large low pressure system centered about 1550 miles southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is producing an
extensive area of cloudiness and showers. Satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the low is gradually becoming
better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development over the next several days.
A tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052320
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1100 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this
disturbance is not expected since upper-level winds are forecast
to become unfavorable in a day or so. The low is expected to drift
westward or west-northwestward over the next several days, and move
into the central Pacific Ocean basin later tonight or on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large low pressure system centered about 1550 miles southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is producing an
extensive area of cloudiness and showers. Satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the low is gradually becoming
better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development over the next several days.
A tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 052316
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 052316
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 052316
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 052316
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ABNT20 KNHC 052304
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 052304
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 052304
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 052304
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 052224
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
830 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TYPHOON WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 140 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 340 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
        ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL.
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
LATER TODAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS MOVING
FARTHER AWAY FROM ENEWETAK TO THE WEST. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 AND 14 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES BEFORE NOON.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN GUAM FOR TROPICAL STORM NANGKA.

$$

WILLIAMS



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 052224
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
830 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TYPHOON WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 140 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 340 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
        ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL.
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
LATER TODAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS MOVING
FARTHER AWAY FROM ENEWETAK TO THE WEST. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 AND 14 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES BEFORE NOON.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN GUAM FOR TROPICAL STORM NANGKA.

$$

WILLIAMS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08.5N126W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 110W/110W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 11N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 122W/123W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT IS
DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W AND
MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 06N95W TO
06N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
95W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...


N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N139W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 13N128W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08.5N126W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 110W/110W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 11N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 122W/123W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT IS
DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W AND
MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 06N95W TO
06N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
95W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...


N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N139W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 13N128W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 052138 CCA
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

CORRECTED TO CANCEL TYPHOON WARNING

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED THERE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 160.3E

ABOUT  140 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  340 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1060 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO WEST AT 13 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TODAY...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON BY TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 052102
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 160.3E

ABOUT  140 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  340 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1060 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO WEST AT 13 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TODAY...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON BY TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 052046
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 142.2E

ABOUT  235 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  240 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  245 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 052046
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 142.2E

ABOUT  235 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  240 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  245 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 052046
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 142.2E

ABOUT  235 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  240 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  245 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 052046
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 142.2E

ABOUT  235 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  240 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  245 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 051856
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 160.8E

ABOUT  110 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  350 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  765 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1090 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.8 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM
LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 45W
FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE S OF 12N. ENHANCED METEOSAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN
43W AND 48W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURROUNDING ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 54W FROM 6N
TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DEEP HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS NORTH OF 12N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND
56W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURROUNDING ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W/83W
FROM 10N TO 19N MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 14N20W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 07N44W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N47W TO 08N53W...THEN RESUMES AGAIN W OF THE
WESTERN ATLC WAVE NEAR 8N56W TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 09N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 28N AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR 23N87W WITH
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TO THE NE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 28N TO THE N GULF
COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE TX GULF
COAST. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF S OF 27N. S
TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF N OF 27N...WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON
MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N AND W OF 85W OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ENHANCED
METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS COVERED IN A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH DUST. THIS...COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR AND SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 63W AND 82W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH OVER THE ATLC ERODES FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING WINDS BELOW
GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST ARE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE INLAND MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE CAROLINA COASTS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N69W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 25N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N41W ANCHORS SURFACE RIDGING THAT COVERS
THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 45W
FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE S OF 12N. ENHANCED METEOSAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN
43W AND 48W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURROUNDING ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 54W FROM 6N
TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DEEP HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS NORTH OF 12N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND
56W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURROUNDING ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W/83W
FROM 10N TO 19N MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 14N20W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 07N44W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N47W TO 08N53W...THEN RESUMES AGAIN W OF THE
WESTERN ATLC WAVE NEAR 8N56W TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 09N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 28N AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR 23N87W WITH
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TO THE NE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 28N TO THE N GULF
COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE TX GULF
COAST. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF S OF 27N. S
TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF N OF 27N...WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON
MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N AND W OF 85W OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ENHANCED
METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS COVERED IN A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH DUST. THIS...COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR AND SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 63W AND 82W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH OVER THE ATLC ERODES FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING WINDS BELOW
GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST ARE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE INLAND MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE CAROLINA COASTS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N69W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 25N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N41W ANCHORS SURFACE RIDGING THAT COVERS
THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
ACPN50 PHFO 051735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BFUJII






000
ACPN50 PHFO 051735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BFUJII





000
ACPN50 PHFO 051735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BFUJII





000
ACPN50 PHFO 051735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BFUJII






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ABNT20 KNHC 051720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 051720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 051720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051636
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA NOW WEST OF ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  40 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE TO THE WEST AND IS
NOW MOVING AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT ENEWETAK
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ATOLL. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
LATER THIS MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051636
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA NOW WEST OF ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  40 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE TO THE WEST AND IS
NOW MOVING AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT ENEWETAK
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ATOLL. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
LATER THIS MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051636
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA NOW WEST OF ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  40 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE TO THE WEST AND IS
NOW MOVING AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT ENEWETAK
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ATOLL. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
LATER THIS MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051636
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA NOW WEST OF ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  40 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE TO THE WEST AND IS
NOW MOVING AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT ENEWETAK
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ATOLL. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
LATER THIS MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051544
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08N125W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT
IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
01N TO 14N BETWEEN 123W AND 137W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N108W TO 16N108W MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING AND GLOBAL
MODEL INDICATED 850 MB  VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 105W AND 111W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N121W TO 16N120W MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 118W AND
123W AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW
CENTERED TO THE SW OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N93W TO 06N104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 08N E OF
80W...AND FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE LOW REMAINS ON THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N139W THEN WEST
OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N148W.
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE POSITION OF THE LOW
AT 14N139W...HOWEVER WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WITHIN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED
BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST NEAR 27N130W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW LIES BENEATH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL
REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 91W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 051537
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING OVER ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 161.8E

ABOUT   40 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  390 MILES NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  705 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1160 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 13 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM
LATER THIS MORNING

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051536
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 143.7E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT 145 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.7 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051536
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 143.7E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT 145 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.7 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING OVER ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 162.4E

ABOUT   15 MILES SOUTH OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  665 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.4 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BECOME A TYPHOON ON MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING OVER ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 162.4E

ABOUT   15 MILES SOUTH OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  665 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.4 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BECOME A TYPHOON ON MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 051154
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 970 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES




000
ACPN50 PHFO 051154
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 970 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 051154
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 970 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES




000
ACPN50 PHFO 051154
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 970 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051153
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1125 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands has remained nearly stationary overnight. Shower
activity is minimal and displaced well to the south and southeast of
the center.  Development of this disturbance is not expected since
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day or so.
The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward over
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1450 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas,
Mexico have changed little in organization overnight. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051153
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1125 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands has remained nearly stationary overnight. Shower
activity is minimal and displaced well to the south and southeast of
the center.  Development of this disturbance is not expected since
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day or so.
The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward over
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1450 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas,
Mexico have changed little in organization overnight. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ABNT20 KNHC 051146
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 051146
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W/41W
FROM 5N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W
FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 11N19W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N40W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N43W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N51W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
9N46W 8N54W TO 11N63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 23N89W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO S OF 22N AND W OF 95W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING
SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W
OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.
A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING. TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
MON WITH A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RETURN TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 77W-80W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR
27N70W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THE ATLC BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N
OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
32N55W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEST PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA OF THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ
TO 21N/22N TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 051039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W/41W
FROM 5N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W
FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 11N19W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N40W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N43W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N51W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
9N46W 8N54W TO 11N63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 23N89W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO S OF 22N AND W OF 95W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING
SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W
OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.
A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING. TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
MON WITH A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RETURN TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 77W-80W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR
27N70W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THE ATLC BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N
OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
32N55W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEST PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA OF THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ
TO 21N/22N TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051001
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 145.1E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  45 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  65 MILES NORTH OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...320 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.1 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. THE FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST
TRACK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051001
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 145.1E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  45 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  65 MILES NORTH OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...320 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.1 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. THE FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST
TRACK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 07N123W MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. THE LOW CENTER FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE...THAT WAS IN A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 131W AND
133W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 128W AND
131W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 129W. THE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W/107W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...DRIFTING
WESTWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD ALONG
118W/119W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ WAS ANALYZED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W...AND
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 06N102W AND 05N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N131W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N NORTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N127W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 08N
TO 24N BETWEEN 116W AND 140W.

A 04/1532 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE
NORTH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS..

THE CARIBBEAN SEA JET...THAT EXTENDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD
SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM DURING
THE DAY. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N131W. A RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH CENTER...TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND
IS FOR WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN
90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE DESCRIBED IN OTHER
PARAGRAPHS. THE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS HELPED TO
GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A
BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 07N123W MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. THE LOW CENTER FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE...THAT WAS IN A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 131W AND
133W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 128W AND
131W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 129W. THE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W/107W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...DRIFTING
WESTWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD ALONG
118W/119W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ WAS ANALYZED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W...AND
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 06N102W AND 05N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N131W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N NORTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N127W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 08N
TO 24N BETWEEN 116W AND 140W.

A 04/1532 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE
NORTH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS..

THE CARIBBEAN SEA JET...THAT EXTENDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD
SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM DURING
THE DAY. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N131W. A RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH CENTER...TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND
IS FOR WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN
90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE DESCRIBED IN OTHER
PARAGRAPHS. THE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS HELPED TO
GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A
BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
MT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 050944
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA JUST EAST OF ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 162.9E

ABOUT   35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1230 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BECOME A TYPHOON ON MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 050711
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA NEARS ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 163.8E

ABOUT   95 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  585 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 163.8 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. NANGKA WILL MAKE A SLIGHT
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK
THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON OVERNIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM CHST.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050701
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM PASSING OVER ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 145.3E

ABOUT  10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  55 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...020 AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.3 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN HEADING NORTH AT ABOUT 12 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050701
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM PASSING OVER ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 145.3E

ABOUT  10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  55 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...020 AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.3 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN HEADING NORTH AT ABOUT 12 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON



000
ACPN50 PHFO 050552
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 960 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 050552
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 960 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 050552
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 960 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 050552
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 960 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES





000
AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N38W
TO 5N40W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 49W/50W FROM
5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 77W/78W
FROM OVER JAMAICA TO 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
TRAILING A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 18N16W ALONG 11N20W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N31W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N38W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N41W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 7N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-88W. AN
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N90W
TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 30N TO
JUST S OF NAPLES. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR BUT HAZY SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN MON.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MON WHEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RETURN TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 31N79W ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO
THE E CENTERED NEAR 27N70W. MOST OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN
E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N42W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N53W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 27N54W TO
24N55W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050535
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure area has been nearly stationary about
1125 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands during the past
12 hours. Shower activity has decreased and remains displaced well
to the southeast of the center.  Although this low still has some
potential for development, upper-level winds are expected to prevent
formation after the weekend while the system drifts westward or
west-northwestward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas
Mexico have changed little in organization this evening. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050535
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure area has been nearly stationary about
1125 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands during the past
12 hours. Shower activity has decreased and remains displaced well
to the southeast of the center.  Although this low still has some
potential for development, upper-level winds are expected to prevent
formation after the weekend while the system drifts westward or
west-northwestward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas
Mexico have changed little in organization this evening. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 050533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 050533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 050527
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARDS ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 164.1 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  115 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  555 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK
ATOLL. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT AS IT PASSES NEAR
ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.T FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TONIGHT AS IT PASSES NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON THIS EVENING OR LATER TONIGHT WHILE
PASSING CLOSE TO ENEWETAK. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARRIVE. BE AWARE OF FALLING PALM FRONDS AND
COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG WINDS. STAY OUT OF
THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST WEST OF ENEWETAK...BUT FASTER INTENSIFICATION WOULD BRING
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM CHST THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 050527
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARDS ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 164.1 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  115 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  555 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK
ATOLL. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT AS IT PASSES NEAR
ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.T FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TONIGHT AS IT PASSES NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON THIS EVENING OR LATER TONIGHT WHILE
PASSING CLOSE TO ENEWETAK. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARRIVE. BE AWARE OF FALLING PALM FRONDS AND
COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG WINDS. STAY OUT OF
THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST WEST OF ENEWETAK...BUT FASTER INTENSIFICATION WOULD BRING
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM CHST THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050421 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

CORRECT TO CANCEL TYPHOON WARNING FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING IN THE ROTA CHANNEL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

THE TYPHOON WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 144.9E

ABOUT  30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  25 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050421 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

CORRECT TO CANCEL TYPHOON WARNING FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING IN THE ROTA CHANNEL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

THE TYPHOON WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 144.9E

ABOUT  30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  25 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050403
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING IN THE ROTA CHANNEL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW
UNLIKELY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 144.9E

ABOUT  30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  25 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050403
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING IN THE ROTA CHANNEL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW
UNLIKELY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 144.9E

ABOUT  30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  25 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 050314
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 164.1E

ABOUT  115 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF UJAE
ABOUT  555 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1315 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 164.1 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE
IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON OVERNIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM CHST.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 07N122W MOVING W-NW AT 10
KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED A
LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 105W/106W DRIFTING W. THIS
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 116W/117W MOVING W
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
12N117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N79W TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO
05N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT HAVE BROKEN DOWN THE ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE
ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W
AND 88W...AND WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLIER NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT NEAR THE
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N131W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CONTINUED
CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 07N122W MOVING W-NW AT 10
KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED A
LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 105W/106W DRIFTING W. THIS
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 116W/117W MOVING W
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
12N117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N79W TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO
05N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT HAVE BROKEN DOWN THE ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE
ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W
AND 88W...AND WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLIER NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT NEAR THE
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N131W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CONTINUED
CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 050118
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR UJAE ATOLL.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR UJAE ATOLL.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 164.7E

ABOUT  150 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF UJAE
ABOUT  155 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  520 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1355 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 164.7 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON OVERNIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM CHST.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050118
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 145.0E

ABOUT  15 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  50 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.0 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050118
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 145.0E

ABOUT  15 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  50 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.0 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050118
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 145.0E

ABOUT  15 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  50 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.0 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050118
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 145.0E

ABOUT  15 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  50 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.0 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 050001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N37W TO 06N39W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 20
TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSMI TPW INDICATES
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...
CURRENT METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N46W TO 03N49W...MOVING AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE S OF 11N. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY
INDICATES SAHARAN DUST N OF 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N75W TO 11N78W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W TO 09N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO NEAR 09N37W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 08N39W TO 08N47W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...NO CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N88W
AND DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. TWO AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE BEING CREATED BY
THIS LOW...THE FIRST IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND THE UPPER
LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W AND
94W. THE OTHER AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND
THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF 83W S OF 25N OVER THE SE
GULF. A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE FL WEST COAST NEAR
29N83W IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO THE TX COAST. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS
ARE E OF 87W. SE TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN US
WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NE
GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SAHARAN AIRMASS
WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING PERSISTENT GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE TRADE WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W
WHICH IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FEET. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC NEAR 27N69W IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND THE FL PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW
ITSELF SUPPORTS ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN
70W AND 74W. FARTHER EAST...A CONVECTION FREE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N54W TO 23N55W. A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N42W ANCHORS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES
THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N37W TO 06N39W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 20
TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSMI TPW INDICATES
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...
CURRENT METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N46W TO 03N49W...MOVING AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE S OF 11N. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY
INDICATES SAHARAN DUST N OF 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N75W TO 11N78W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W TO 09N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO NEAR 09N37W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 08N39W TO 08N47W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...NO CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N88W
AND DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. TWO AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE BEING CREATED BY
THIS LOW...THE FIRST IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND THE UPPER
LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W AND
94W. THE OTHER AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND
THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF 83W S OF 25N OVER THE SE
GULF. A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE FL WEST COAST NEAR
29N83W IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO THE TX COAST. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS
ARE E OF 87W. SE TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN US
WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NE
GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SAHARAN AIRMASS
WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING PERSISTENT GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE TRADE WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W
WHICH IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FEET. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC NEAR 27N69W IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND THE FL PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW
ITSELF SUPPORTS ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN
70W AND 74W. FARTHER EAST...A CONVECTION FREE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N54W TO 23N55W. A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N42W ANCHORS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES
THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N37W TO 06N39W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 20
TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSMI TPW INDICATES
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...
CURRENT METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N46W TO 03N49W...MOVING AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE S OF 11N. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY
INDICATES SAHARAN DUST N OF 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N75W TO 11N78W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W TO 09N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO NEAR 09N37W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 08N39W TO 08N47W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...NO CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N88W
AND DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. TWO AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE BEING CREATED BY
THIS LOW...THE FIRST IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND THE UPPER
LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W AND
94W. THE OTHER AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND
THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF 83W S OF 25N OVER THE SE
GULF. A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE FL WEST COAST NEAR
29N83W IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO THE TX COAST. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS
ARE E OF 87W. SE TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN US
WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NE
GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SAHARAN AIRMASS
WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING PERSISTENT GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE TRADE WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W
WHICH IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FEET. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC NEAR 27N69W IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND THE FL PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW
ITSELF SUPPORTS ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN
70W AND 74W. FARTHER EAST...A CONVECTION FREE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N54W TO 23N55W. A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N42W ANCHORS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES
THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 050001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N37W TO 06N39W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 20
TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSMI TPW INDICATES
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...
CURRENT METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N46W TO 03N49W...MOVING AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE S OF 11N. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY
INDICATES SAHARAN DUST N OF 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N75W TO 11N78W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W TO 09N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO NEAR 09N37W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 08N39W TO 08N47W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...NO CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N88W
AND DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. TWO AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE BEING CREATED BY
THIS LOW...THE FIRST IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND THE UPPER
LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W AND
94W. THE OTHER AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND
THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF 83W S OF 25N OVER THE SE
GULF. A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE FL WEST COAST NEAR
29N83W IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO THE TX COAST. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS
ARE E OF 87W. SE TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN US
WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NE
GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SAHARAN AIRMASS
WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING PERSISTENT GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE TRADE WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W
WHICH IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FEET. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC NEAR 27N69W IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND THE FL PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW
ITSELF SUPPORTS ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN
70W AND 74W. FARTHER EAST...A CONVECTION FREE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N54W TO 23N55W. A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N42W ANCHORS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES
THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
ACPN50 PHFO 042347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NEAR THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. CURRENTLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
AREA...REMAINED ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 965 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

FUJII





000
ACPN50 PHFO 042347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NEAR THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. CURRENTLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
AREA...REMAINED ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 965 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

FUJII





000
ACPN50 PHFO 042347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NEAR THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. CURRENTLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
AREA...REMAINED ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 965 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

FUJII





000
ACPN50 PHFO 042347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NEAR THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. CURRENTLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
AREA...REMAINED ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 965 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

FUJII





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042339
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure area has been nearly stationary about
1125 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands for the past
several hours. This system is producing poorly organized shower
and thunderstorm activity, mainly well to the east of the center.
Although this low still has some potential for development,
upper-level winds are expected to prevent formation after the
weekend while the system drifts westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1350 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042339
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure area has been nearly stationary about
1125 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands for the past
several hours. This system is producing poorly organized shower
and thunderstorm activity, mainly well to the east of the center.
Although this low still has some potential for development,
upper-level winds are expected to prevent formation after the
weekend while the system drifts westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1350 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 042332
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 042332
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 042332
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 042331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 042331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 042331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 042331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ABNT20 KNHC 042311
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 042311
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 042311
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 042311
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 042311
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 042311
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 042251
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK AND UJAE ATOLLS IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  155 MILES NORTH OF UJAE
        ABOUT  195 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  495 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST AND PASSING NORTH
OF UJAE ATOLL. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY AND MONDAY...
AND IS COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AND PASSING CLOSE TO
ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG
WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD AND WATER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE
POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST WEST OF ENEWETAK...BUT FASTER INTENSIFICATION WOULD BRING
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
NANGKA PASSES BY.

...UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 042251
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK AND UJAE ATOLLS IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  155 MILES NORTH OF UJAE
        ABOUT  195 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  495 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST AND PASSING NORTH
OF UJAE ATOLL. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY AND MONDAY...
AND IS COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AND PASSING CLOSE TO
ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG
WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD AND WATER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE
POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST WEST OF ENEWETAK...BUT FASTER INTENSIFICATION WOULD BRING
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
NANGKA PASSES BY.

...UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 042251
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK AND UJAE ATOLLS IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  155 MILES NORTH OF UJAE
        ABOUT  195 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  495 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST AND PASSING NORTH
OF UJAE ATOLL. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY AND MONDAY...
AND IS COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AND PASSING CLOSE TO
ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG
WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD AND WATER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE
POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST WEST OF ENEWETAK...BUT FASTER INTENSIFICATION WOULD BRING
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
NANGKA PASSES BY.

...UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 042251
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK AND UJAE ATOLLS IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  155 MILES NORTH OF UJAE
        ABOUT  195 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  495 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST AND PASSING NORTH
OF UJAE ATOLL. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY AND MONDAY...
AND IS COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AND PASSING CLOSE TO
ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG
WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD AND WATER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE
POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST WEST OF ENEWETAK...BUT FASTER INTENSIFICATION WOULD BRING
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
NANGKA PASSES BY.

...UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 042251
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK AND UJAE ATOLLS IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  155 MILES NORTH OF UJAE
        ABOUT  195 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  495 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST AND PASSING NORTH
OF UJAE ATOLL. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY AND MONDAY...
AND IS COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AND PASSING CLOSE TO
ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG
WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD AND WATER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE
POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST WEST OF ENEWETAK...BUT FASTER INTENSIFICATION WOULD BRING
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
NANGKA PASSES BY.

...UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 042251
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK AND UJAE ATOLLS IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  155 MILES NORTH OF UJAE
        ABOUT  195 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  495 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST AND PASSING NORTH
OF UJAE ATOLL. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY AND MONDAY...
AND IS COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AND PASSING CLOSE TO
ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG
WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD AND WATER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE
POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST WEST OF ENEWETAK...BUT FASTER INTENSIFICATION WOULD BRING
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
NANGKA PASSES BY.

...UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 06N123W MOVING W-NW AT 5
TO 10 KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A
LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N
TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED
A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 103W/104W DRIFTING W. THIS
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 14N 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 115W/116W MOVING W
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
12.5N116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 05N78W 1006
MB TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO 09N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES
INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT HAS BROKEN DOWN THE
ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS
TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE
GERMAN RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE WAS NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N139W. AND EARLY SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE SE QUADRANT OF THIS LOW. THE
OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE
ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH
THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE
CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 06N123W MOVING W-NW AT 5
TO 10 KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A
LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N
TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED
A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 103W/104W DRIFTING W. THIS
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 14N 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 115W/116W MOVING W
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
12.5N116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 05N78W 1006
MB TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO 09N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES
INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT HAS BROKEN DOWN THE
ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS
TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE
GERMAN RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE WAS NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N139W. AND EARLY SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE SE QUADRANT OF THIS LOW. THE
OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE
ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH
THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE
CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 06N123W MOVING W-NW AT 5
TO 10 KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A
LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N
TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED
A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 103W/104W DRIFTING W. THIS
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 14N 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 115W/116W MOVING W
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
12.5N116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 05N78W 1006
MB TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO 09N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES
INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT HAS BROKEN DOWN THE
ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS
TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE
GERMAN RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE WAS NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N139W. AND EARLY SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE SE QUADRANT OF THIS LOW. THE
OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE
ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH
THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE
CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 06N123W MOVING W-NW AT 5
TO 10 KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A
LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N
TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED
A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 103W/104W DRIFTING W. THIS
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 14N 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 115W/116W MOVING W
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
12.5N116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 05N78W 1006
MB TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO 09N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES
INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT HAS BROKEN DOWN THE
ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS
TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE
GERMAN RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE WAS NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N139W. AND EARLY SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE SE QUADRANT OF THIS LOW. THE
OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE
ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH
THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE
CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 06N123W MOVING W-NW AT 5
TO 10 KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A
LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N
TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED
A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 103W/104W DRIFTING W. THIS
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 14N 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 115W/116W MOVING W
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
12.5N116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 05N78W 1006
MB TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO 09N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES
INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT HAS BROKEN DOWN THE
ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS
TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE
GERMAN RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE WAS NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N139W. AND EARLY SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE SE QUADRANT OF THIS LOW. THE
OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE
ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH
THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE
CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 06N123W MOVING W-NW AT 5
TO 10 KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A
LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N
TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED
A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 103W/104W DRIFTING W. THIS
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 14N 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 115W/116W MOVING W
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
12.5N116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 05N78W 1006
MB TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO 09N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES
INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT HAS BROKEN DOWN THE
ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS
TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE
GERMAN RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE WAS NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N139W. AND EARLY SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE SE QUADRANT OF THIS LOW. THE
OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE
ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH
THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE
CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 042200
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 165.3E

ABOUT  155 MILES NORTH OF UJAE
ABOUT  195 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  495 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1395 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.3 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 042116
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES TOWARD ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 145.4E

ABOUT  15 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  60 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  70 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 042116
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES TOWARD ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 145.4E

ABOUT  15 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  60 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  70 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 042116
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES TOWARD ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 145.4E

ABOUT  15 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  60 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  70 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 042116
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES TOWARD ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 145.4E

ABOUT  15 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  60 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  70 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 042116
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES TOWARD ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 145.4E

ABOUT  15 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  60 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  70 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 041913
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 165.9E

ABOUT  155 MILES NORTH OF UJAE
ABOUT  235 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  465 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1435 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.9 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER THIS MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM
LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041900
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING TOWARD ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 145.7E

ABOUT  40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  90 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.7 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS... BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM
LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041900
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING TOWARD ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 145.7E

ABOUT  40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  90 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.7 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS... BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM
LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041900
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING TOWARD ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 145.7E

ABOUT  40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  90 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.7 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS... BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM
LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041900
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING TOWARD ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 145.7E

ABOUT  40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  90 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.7 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS... BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM
LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 041757 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING AROUND AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. CURRENTLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 815 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM AROUND A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$






000
ACPN50 PHFO 041757 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING AROUND AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. CURRENTLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 815 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM AROUND A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041751
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing poorly organized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  While this low still has some potential for
development, upper-level winds are expected to prevent formation
after the weekend. The low is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico are showing some signs of organization.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041751
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing poorly organized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  While this low still has some potential for
development, upper-level winds are expected to prevent formation
after the weekend. The low is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico are showing some signs of organization.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ACPN50 PHFO 041750
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING AROUND AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. CURRENTLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 815 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM AROUND A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 041750
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING AROUND AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. CURRENTLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 815 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM AROUND A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$




000
WTPQ83 PGUM 041739
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA INTENSIFYING AND CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK
AND UJAE ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 166.4 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  270 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  440 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND PASSING TO
THE NORTH OF UJAE ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY AND MONDAY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE IT PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER THIS MORNING AND PASSING CLOSE TO
ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG
WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD AND WATER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE
POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
NANGKA PASSES BY.

...UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 041739
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA INTENSIFYING AND CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK
AND UJAE ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 166.4 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  270 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  440 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND PASSING TO
THE NORTH OF UJAE ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY AND MONDAY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE IT PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER THIS MORNING AND PASSING CLOSE TO
ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG
WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD AND WATER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE
POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
NANGKA PASSES BY.

...UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 041736
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 041736
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 041736
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 041736
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 041736
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 041736
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N33W TO 06N35W. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT
ABOUT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THIS
WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N45W TO 04N47W EXTENDS ALONG 43W FROM 5N-12N
...MOVING AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG
09N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N74W TO 10N76W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT 20-25 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO NEAR 09N34W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 08N37W
TO 07N45W THEN AGAIN W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N49W TO 06N57W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-23W AND 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
22N89W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 20N-25N AND W OF 97W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDING ITS RIDGE ACROSS W REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N81W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SAHARAN AIRMASS
WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE
DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-79W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUES INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS S OF THE ISLAND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH
COULD HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG 78W AND COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N70W...A DIFFLUENT FLOW
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 76W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH 32N56W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE AND DENSE PLUMB OF SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 11N. WITH THIS...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIRMASS WILL PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N33W TO 06N35W. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT
ABOUT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THIS
WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N45W TO 04N47W EXTENDS ALONG 43W FROM 5N-12N
...MOVING AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG
09N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N74W TO 10N76W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT 20-25 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO NEAR 09N34W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 08N37W
TO 07N45W THEN AGAIN W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N49W TO 06N57W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-23W AND 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
22N89W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 20N-25N AND W OF 97W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDING ITS RIDGE ACROSS W REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N81W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SAHARAN AIRMASS
WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE
DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-79W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUES INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS S OF THE ISLAND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH
COULD HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG 78W AND COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N70W...A DIFFLUENT FLOW
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 76W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH 32N56W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE AND DENSE PLUMB OF SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 11N. WITH THIS...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIRMASS WILL PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N33W TO 06N35W. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT
ABOUT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THIS
WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N45W TO 04N47W EXTENDS ALONG 43W FROM 5N-12N
...MOVING AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG
09N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N74W TO 10N76W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT 20-25 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO NEAR 09N34W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 08N37W
TO 07N45W THEN AGAIN W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N49W TO 06N57W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-23W AND 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
22N89W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 20N-25N AND W OF 97W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDING ITS RIDGE ACROSS W REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N81W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SAHARAN AIRMASS
WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE
DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-79W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUES INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS S OF THE ISLAND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH
COULD HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG 78W AND COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N70W...A DIFFLUENT FLOW
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 76W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH 32N56W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE AND DENSE PLUMB OF SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 11N. WITH THIS...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIRMASS WILL PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N33W TO 06N35W. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT
ABOUT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THIS
WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N45W TO 04N47W EXTENDS ALONG 43W FROM 5N-12N
...MOVING AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG
09N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N74W TO 10N76W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT 20-25 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO NEAR 09N34W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 08N37W
TO 07N45W THEN AGAIN W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N49W TO 06N57W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-23W AND 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
22N89W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 20N-25N AND W OF 97W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDING ITS RIDGE ACROSS W REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N81W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SAHARAN AIRMASS
WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE
DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-79W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUES INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS S OF THE ISLAND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH
COULD HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG 78W AND COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N70W...A DIFFLUENT FLOW
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 76W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH 32N56W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE AND DENSE PLUMB OF SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 11N. WITH THIS...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIRMASS WILL PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N33W TO 06N35W. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT
ABOUT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THIS
WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N45W TO 04N47W EXTENDS ALONG 43W FROM 5N-12N
...MOVING AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG
09N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N74W TO 10N76W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT 20-25 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO NEAR 09N34W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 08N37W
TO 07N45W THEN AGAIN W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N49W TO 06N57W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-23W AND 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
22N89W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 20N-25N AND W OF 97W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDING ITS RIDGE ACROSS W REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N81W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SAHARAN AIRMASS
WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE
DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-79W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUES INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS S OF THE ISLAND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH
COULD HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG 78W AND COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N70W...A DIFFLUENT FLOW
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 76W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH 32N56W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE AND DENSE PLUMB OF SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 11N. WITH THIS...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIRMASS WILL PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N33W TO 06N35W. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT
ABOUT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THIS
WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N45W TO 04N47W EXTENDS ALONG 43W FROM 5N-12N
...MOVING AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG
09N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N74W TO 10N76W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT 20-25 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO NEAR 09N34W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 08N37W
TO 07N45W THEN AGAIN W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N49W TO 06N57W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-23W AND 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
22N89W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 20N-25N AND W OF 97W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDING ITS RIDGE ACROSS W REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N81W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SAHARAN AIRMASS
WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE
DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-79W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUES INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS S OF THE ISLAND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH
COULD HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG 78W AND COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N70W...A DIFFLUENT FLOW
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 76W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH 32N56W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE AND DENSE PLUMB OF SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 11N. WITH THIS...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIRMASS WILL PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 041617 RRA
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...RESEND FOR WEB POSTING
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...
UJAE AND KWAJALEIN ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR KWAJALEIN AND UJAE ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  105 MILES WEST OF UTIRIK
        ABOUT  160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
        ABOUT  170 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
        ABOUT  230 MILES NORTHEAST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  335 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
        ABOUT  400 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
RECENT KWAJALEIN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WELL NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL...APPROACHING RONGELAP ATOLL.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TURNS NANGKA BACK ONTO A WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING TONIGHT AND CONTINUES ALONG THAT TRACK THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON ON MONDAY. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER SUNDAY MORNING. ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
TO PROTECT PROPERTIES FROM COASTAL INUNDATION. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS CAUSED BY STRONG WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE
WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH OVERNIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 40 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF NANGKA INTENSIFIES FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY PEAKING BETWEEN
12 AND 16 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 12 FEET
WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 18 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PASSES BY.

...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF BOTH KWAJALEIN AND UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO KWAJALEIN LATER
TONIGHT...AND UJAE SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO
14 FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 041617 RRA
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...RESEND FOR WEB POSTING
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...
UJAE AND KWAJALEIN ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR KWAJALEIN AND UJAE ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  105 MILES WEST OF UTIRIK
        ABOUT  160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
        ABOUT  170 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
        ABOUT  230 MILES NORTHEAST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  335 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
        ABOUT  400 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
RECENT KWAJALEIN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WELL NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL...APPROACHING RONGELAP ATOLL.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TURNS NANGKA BACK ONTO A WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING TONIGHT AND CONTINUES ALONG THAT TRACK THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON ON MONDAY. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER SUNDAY MORNING. ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
TO PROTECT PROPERTIES FROM COASTAL INUNDATION. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS CAUSED BY STRONG WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE
WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH OVERNIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 40 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF NANGKA INTENSIFIES FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY PEAKING BETWEEN
12 AND 16 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 12 FEET
WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 18 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PASSES BY.

...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF BOTH KWAJALEIN AND UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO KWAJALEIN LATER
TONIGHT...AND UJAE SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO
14 FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 041617 RRA
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...RESEND FOR WEB POSTING
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...
UJAE AND KWAJALEIN ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR KWAJALEIN AND UJAE ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  105 MILES WEST OF UTIRIK
        ABOUT  160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
        ABOUT  170 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
        ABOUT  230 MILES NORTHEAST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  335 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
        ABOUT  400 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
RECENT KWAJALEIN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WELL NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL...APPROACHING RONGELAP ATOLL.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TURNS NANGKA BACK ONTO A WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING TONIGHT AND CONTINUES ALONG THAT TRACK THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON ON MONDAY. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER SUNDAY MORNING. ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
TO PROTECT PROPERTIES FROM COASTAL INUNDATION. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS CAUSED BY STRONG WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE
WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH OVERNIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 40 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF NANGKA INTENSIFIES FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY PEAKING BETWEEN
12 AND 16 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 12 FEET
WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 18 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PASSES BY.

...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF BOTH KWAJALEIN AND UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO KWAJALEIN LATER
TONIGHT...AND UJAE SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO
14 FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 041617 RRA
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...RESEND FOR WEB POSTING
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...
UJAE AND KWAJALEIN ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR KWAJALEIN AND UJAE ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  105 MILES WEST OF UTIRIK
        ABOUT  160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
        ABOUT  170 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
        ABOUT  230 MILES NORTHEAST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  335 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
        ABOUT  400 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
RECENT KWAJALEIN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WELL NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL...APPROACHING RONGELAP ATOLL.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TURNS NANGKA BACK ONTO A WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING TONIGHT AND CONTINUES ALONG THAT TRACK THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON ON MONDAY. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER SUNDAY MORNING. ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
TO PROTECT PROPERTIES FROM COASTAL INUNDATION. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS CAUSED BY STRONG WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE
WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH OVERNIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 40 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF NANGKA INTENSIFIES FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY PEAKING BETWEEN
12 AND 16 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 12 FEET
WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 18 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PASSES BY.

...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF BOTH KWAJALEIN AND UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO KWAJALEIN LATER
TONIGHT...AND UJAE SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO
14 FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 041617 RRA
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...RESEND FOR WEB POSTING
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...
UJAE AND KWAJALEIN ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR KWAJALEIN AND UJAE ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  105 MILES WEST OF UTIRIK
        ABOUT  160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
        ABOUT  170 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
        ABOUT  230 MILES NORTHEAST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  335 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
        ABOUT  400 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
RECENT KWAJALEIN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WELL NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL...APPROACHING RONGELAP ATOLL.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TURNS NANGKA BACK ONTO A WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING TONIGHT AND CONTINUES ALONG THAT TRACK THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON ON MONDAY. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER SUNDAY MORNING. ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
TO PROTECT PROPERTIES FROM COASTAL INUNDATION. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS CAUSED BY STRONG WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE
WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH OVERNIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 40 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF NANGKA INTENSIFIES FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY PEAKING BETWEEN
12 AND 16 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 12 FEET
WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 18 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PASSES BY.

...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF BOTH KWAJALEIN AND UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO KWAJALEIN LATER
TONIGHT...AND UJAE SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO
14 FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 041617 RRA
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...RESEND FOR WEB POSTING
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...
UJAE AND KWAJALEIN ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR KWAJALEIN AND UJAE ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  105 MILES WEST OF UTIRIK
        ABOUT  160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
        ABOUT  170 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
        ABOUT  230 MILES NORTHEAST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  335 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
        ABOUT  400 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
RECENT KWAJALEIN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WELL NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL...APPROACHING RONGELAP ATOLL.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TURNS NANGKA BACK ONTO A WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING TONIGHT AND CONTINUES ALONG THAT TRACK THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON ON MONDAY. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER SUNDAY MORNING. ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
TO PROTECT PROPERTIES FROM COASTAL INUNDATION. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS CAUSED BY STRONG WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE
WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH OVERNIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 40 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF NANGKA INTENSIFIES FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY PEAKING BETWEEN
12 AND 16 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 12 FEET
WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 18 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PASSES BY.

...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF BOTH KWAJALEIN AND UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO KWAJALEIN LATER
TONIGHT...AND UJAE SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO
14 FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041541
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE OF 1005 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 06N123W
MOVING W-NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION GENERATED BY A
KELVIN WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM OF
CENTER IN THE EAST QUADRANT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N103W TO 17N103W MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN
101W AND 111W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N114W TO 16N114W MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N
TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N85W TO 07N94W TO
10N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO
08N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 101W...AND FROM
05N TO 12N BETWEEN 101W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1016 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS SE TO NEAR 17N110W. A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13.5N139W
IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N OF THE LOW.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE GENERATING 8 FT SEAS FROM 14N TO 18N W OF
132W. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS DECREASED AND CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND
125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE
HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO
GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A
BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT
PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 93W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041533
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM JUST EAST OF GUAM COASTAL WATERS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 145.9E

ABOUT  65 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  75 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY BUT ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN STORM
MOVEMENT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM
LATER THIS MORNING


$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041533
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM JUST EAST OF GUAM COASTAL WATERS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 145.9E

ABOUT  65 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  75 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY BUT ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN STORM
MOVEMENT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM
LATER THIS MORNING


$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041533
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM JUST EAST OF GUAM COASTAL WATERS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 145.9E

ABOUT  65 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  75 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY BUT ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN STORM
MOVEMENT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM
LATER THIS MORNING


$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041533
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM JUST EAST OF GUAM COASTAL WATERS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 145.9E

ABOUT  65 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  75 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY BUT ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN STORM
MOVEMENT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM
LATER THIS MORNING


$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 041532
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA INTENSIFYING AND CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR KWAJALEIN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 166.4E

ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  210 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  270 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  440 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1465 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 166.4 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF ENEWETAK LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM
LATER THIS MORNING

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 041532
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA INTENSIFYING AND CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR KWAJALEIN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 166.4E

ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  210 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  270 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  440 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1465 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 166.4 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF ENEWETAK LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM
LATER THIS MORNING

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 041322
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARDS ENEWETAK...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KWAJALEIN AND
UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 167.1E

ABOUT  185 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  185 MILES NORTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  320 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1515 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 167.1 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041250 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

CORRECTED TYPO

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM VISIBLE ON GUAM RADAR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 146.4E

ABOUT  90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
HAS SLOWED TO THE EAST OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041250 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

CORRECTED TYPO

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM VISIBLE ON GUAM RADAR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 146.4E

ABOUT  90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
HAS SLOWED TO THE EAST OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041250 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

CORRECTED TYPO

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM VISIBLE ON GUAM RADAR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 146.4E

ABOUT  90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
HAS SLOWED TO THE EAST OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041250 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

CORRECTED TYPO

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM VISIBLE ON GUAM RADAR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 146.4E

ABOUT  90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
HAS SLOWED TO THE EAST OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041248
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM VISIBLE ON GUAM RADAR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 146.4E

ABOUT  90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
HAS SLOWED TO THE EAST OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041248
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM VISIBLE ON GUAM RADAR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 146.4E

ABOUT  90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
HAS SLOWED TO THE EAST OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041248
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM VISIBLE ON GUAM RADAR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 146.4E

ABOUT  90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
HAS SLOWED TO THE EAST OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041248
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM VISIBLE ON GUAM RADAR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 146.4E

ABOUT  90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
HAS SLOWED TO THE EAST OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041248
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM VISIBLE ON GUAM RADAR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 146.4E

ABOUT  90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER
HAS SLOWED TO THE EAST OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
ACPN50 PHFO 041152
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ALTHOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE LOCATED AROUND 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 041152
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ALTHOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE LOCATED AROUND 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 041139
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 041139
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 041139
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 041139
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 041138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower activity.
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming less conducive, with
development not expected after the weekend. The low is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A broad area of low pressure about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico is producing extensive cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 041138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower activity.
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming less conducive, with
development not expected after the weekend. The low is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A broad area of low pressure about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico is producing extensive cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 041138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower activity.
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming less conducive, with
development not expected after the weekend. The low is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A broad area of low pressure about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico is producing extensive cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABNT20 KNHC 041138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower activity.
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming less conducive, with
development not expected after the weekend. The low is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A broad area of low pressure about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico is producing extensive cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 74W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 28W FROM 6N-
16N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 43W
FROM 5N-12N MOVING AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 71W/72W
FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR
9N30W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N42W THEN RESUMES W
OF THIS WAVE NEAR 8N45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN
17W-22W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MONRING EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N87W AND A
SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 23N89W TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH AT 04/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N97W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO JUST E OF VERACRUZ GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF THE
TROUGH TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N83W TO
TEXAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI AND E JAMAICA.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR BUT HAZY SKIES THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
E CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
OVER THE ISLAND...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W JUST S OF THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 23N77W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
76W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 66W-72W. A PAIR OF WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...ONE EXTENDING FROM
28N50W TO 24N48W AND THE SECOND FROM 30N56W TO 24N55W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-
26N BETWEEN 52W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
34N44W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N56W TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS
N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 74W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 28W FROM 6N-
16N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 43W
FROM 5N-12N MOVING AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 71W/72W
FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR
9N30W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N42W THEN RESUMES W
OF THIS WAVE NEAR 8N45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN
17W-22W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MONRING EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N87W AND A
SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 23N89W TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH AT 04/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N97W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO JUST E OF VERACRUZ GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF THE
TROUGH TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N83W TO
TEXAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI AND E JAMAICA.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR BUT HAZY SKIES THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
E CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
OVER THE ISLAND...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W JUST S OF THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 23N77W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
76W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 66W-72W. A PAIR OF WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...ONE EXTENDING FROM
28N50W TO 24N48W AND THE SECOND FROM 30N56W TO 24N55W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-
26N BETWEEN 52W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
34N44W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N56W TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS
N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 74W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 28W FROM 6N-
16N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 43W
FROM 5N-12N MOVING AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 71W/72W
FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR
9N30W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N42W THEN RESUMES W
OF THIS WAVE NEAR 8N45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN
17W-22W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MONRING EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N87W AND A
SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 23N89W TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH AT 04/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N97W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO JUST E OF VERACRUZ GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF THE
TROUGH TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N83W TO
TEXAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI AND E JAMAICA.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR BUT HAZY SKIES THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
E CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
OVER THE ISLAND...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W JUST S OF THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 23N77W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
76W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 66W-72W. A PAIR OF WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...ONE EXTENDING FROM
28N50W TO 24N48W AND THE SECOND FROM 30N56W TO 24N55W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-
26N BETWEEN 52W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
34N44W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N56W TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS
N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 74W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 28W FROM 6N-
16N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 43W
FROM 5N-12N MOVING AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 71W/72W
FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR
9N30W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N42W THEN RESUMES W
OF THIS WAVE NEAR 8N45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN
17W-22W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MONRING EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N87W AND A
SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 23N89W TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH AT 04/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N97W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO JUST E OF VERACRUZ GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF THE
TROUGH TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N83W TO
TEXAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI AND E JAMAICA.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR BUT HAZY SKIES THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
E CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
OVER THE ISLAND...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W JUST S OF THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 23N77W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
76W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 66W-72W. A PAIR OF WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...ONE EXTENDING FROM
28N50W TO 24N48W AND THE SECOND FROM 30N56W TO 24N55W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-
26N BETWEEN 52W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
34N44W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N56W TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS
N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 041010
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 041010
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 4 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040954
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM HEADING TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 147.2E

ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 165 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND THE GUAM RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5
DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.2 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE CENTER MAY HAVE SLOWED SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES EAST
OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION
ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CHAN-HOM COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT/EDSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040954
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM HEADING TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 147.2E

ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 165 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND THE GUAM RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5
DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.2 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE CENTER MAY HAVE SLOWED SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES EAST
OF GUAM. HOWEVER...CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION
ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
STRONG CONVECTION OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CHAN-HOM COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT/EDSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 040941
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARDS ENEWETAK...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KWAJALEIN AND
UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 168.3E

ABOUT  105 MILES WEST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT  160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  170 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
ABOUT  230 MILES NORTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  335 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT  400 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.3 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO
TURN BACK AND CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WILL
BRING NANGKA NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 06N122W. THE LOW
FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION GENERATED BY A KELVIN WAVE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW IS FOUND WITHIN 300 NM NW QUADRANT.
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM BUT
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-
NW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 100W N OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE
FROM 10N TO 14N.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 112W FROM 08N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE FROM 07N TO
10N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N92W TO 08N97W.
THERE IS NO ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND
97W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1017 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 18.5N110W. A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N138W IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING NW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N OF THE LOW.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING FOR SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 14N TO 17N W
OF 132W. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW HAS DECREASED AND CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...THE STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO HELP FOR
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 05N TO
11N BETWEEN 97W AND 120W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED FOR THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO
HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS
LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING OF STRONG GAP WIND FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH
A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL TO 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
AL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 06N122W. THE LOW
FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION GENERATED BY A KELVIN WAVE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW IS FOUND WITHIN 300 NM NW QUADRANT.
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM BUT
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-
NW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 100W N OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE
FROM 10N TO 14N.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 112W FROM 08N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE FROM 07N TO
10N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N92W TO 08N97W.
THERE IS NO ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND
97W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1017 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 18.5N110W. A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N138W IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING NW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N OF THE LOW.
THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING FOR SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 14N TO 17N W
OF 132W. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW HAS DECREASED AND CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...THE STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO HELP FOR
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 05N TO
11N BETWEEN 97W AND 120W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED FOR THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO
HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS
LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING OF STRONG GAP WIND FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH
A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL TO 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
AL



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 040720
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARDS ENEWETAK...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KWAJALEIN AND
UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 168.9E

ABOUT   65 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT  135 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  260 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  305 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT  440 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.9
DEGREES EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 040720
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARDS ENEWETAK...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KWAJALEIN AND
UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 168.9E

ABOUT   65 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT  135 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  260 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  305 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT  440 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.9
DEGREES EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040719
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 147.6E

ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT... AND PASS THROUGH THE
MARIANAS NEAR SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040719
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 147.6E

ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT... AND PASS THROUGH THE
MARIANAS NEAR SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040719
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 147.6E

ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT... AND PASS THROUGH THE
MARIANAS NEAR SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
ACPN50 PHFO 040604 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ALTHOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE LOCATED AROUND 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 040604 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ALTHOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE LOCATED AROUND 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 040604 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ALTHOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE LOCATED AROUND 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 040604 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ALTHOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE LOCATED AROUND 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 040559
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ALTHOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...30 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE LOCATED AROUND 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 040559
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ALTHOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...30 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE LOCATED AROUND 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

GIBBS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040538
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions are gradually becoming less conducive
for development, and upper-level winds are expected to become
unfavorable by Sunday or Monday. The low is forecast to move
slowly west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A broad area of low pressure is producing extensive cloudiness and
scattered showers more than 1300 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas
Mexico.  Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward
at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 040538
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXNT20 KNHC 040537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 25W/26W FROM
6N-16N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 42W
FROM 5N-12N MOVING NEAR 5 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER LOW AND GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 18N
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N28W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 7N40W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE NEAR 7N44W INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
TAMPA BAY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N89W TO VERACRUZ
MEXICO. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N E OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO JUST E OF COATZACOALCOS. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 89W-
92W. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO TEXAS WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19N-20N W OF 85W TO
INLAND OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING
SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
BUT HAZY SKIES TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH
SUN. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LOW N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE
ISLAND...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST IS
LIMITING CONVECTION TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS COULD
INCREASE SAT AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W JUST
S OF THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N78W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
75W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO THE W TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N W
OF 78W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW N OF
HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN
65W-72W. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...ONE EXTENDING FROM 27N47W TO 23N46W AND THE SECOND FROM
30N56W TO 25N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N51W TO 28N56W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N45W AND EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N60W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 040537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 25W/26W FROM
6N-16N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 42W
FROM 5N-12N MOVING NEAR 5 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER LOW AND GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 18N
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N28W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 7N40W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE NEAR 7N44W INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
TAMPA BAY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N89W TO VERACRUZ
MEXICO. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N E OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO JUST E OF COATZACOALCOS. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 89W-
92W. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO TEXAS WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19N-20N W OF 85W TO
INLAND OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING
SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
BUT HAZY SKIES TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH
SUN. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LOW N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE
ISLAND...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST IS
LIMITING CONVECTION TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS COULD
INCREASE SAT AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W JUST
S OF THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N78W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
75W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO THE W TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N W
OF 78W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW N OF
HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN
65W-72W. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...ONE EXTENDING FROM 27N47W TO 23N46W AND THE SECOND FROM
30N56W TO 25N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N51W TO 28N56W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N45W AND EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N60W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 040512
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA NOW A TROPICAL STORM...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...
UJAE...KWAJALEIN...UTIRIK AND WOTJE ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR WOTJE AND
UTIRIK ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR KWAJALEIN AND UJAE ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 169.2 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT   65 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
        ABOUT   85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF UTIRIK
        ABOUT  125 MILES NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
        ABOUT  235 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
        ABOUT  260 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF UJAE AND
        ABOUT  475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TROPICAL STORM NANGKA JUST NORTH OF
KWAJALEIN AND UJAE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND.

...WOTJE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...REMAIN IN
A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND DECREASE THIS EVENING AS NANGKA CONTINUES WEST AWAY
FROM WOTJE. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 15
FEET WITH COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG WEST AND
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

...UTIRIK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...REMAIN
IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS
FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL DECREASE
TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS NANGKA HEADS WEST AWAY FROM
UTIRIK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 15
FEET WITH COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH AND
EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IN CASE A TYPHOON WARNING
IS ISSUED. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE...DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND
COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING
BETWEEN 12 AND 16 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8
TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 18 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PASSES BY.

...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF BOTH KWAJALEIN AND UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO KWAJALEIN TONIGHT...
AND UJAE SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO
14 FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 040512
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA NOW A TROPICAL STORM...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...
UJAE...KWAJALEIN...UTIRIK AND WOTJE ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR WOTJE AND
UTIRIK ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR KWAJALEIN AND UJAE ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 169.2 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT   65 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
        ABOUT   85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF UTIRIK
        ABOUT  125 MILES NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
        ABOUT  235 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
        ABOUT  260 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF UJAE AND
        ABOUT  475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TROPICAL STORM NANGKA JUST NORTH OF
KWAJALEIN AND UJAE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND.

...WOTJE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...REMAIN IN
A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND DECREASE THIS EVENING AS NANGKA CONTINUES WEST AWAY
FROM WOTJE. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 15
FEET WITH COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG WEST AND
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

...UTIRIK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...REMAIN
IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS
FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL DECREASE
TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS NANGKA HEADS WEST AWAY FROM
UTIRIK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 15
FEET WITH COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH AND
EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IN CASE A TYPHOON WARNING
IS ISSUED. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE...DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND
COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING
BETWEEN 12 AND 16 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8
TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 18 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PASSES BY.

...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF BOTH KWAJALEIN AND UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO KWAJALEIN TONIGHT...
AND UJAE SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO
14 FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT




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