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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221150
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221150
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221150
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221150
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ACPN50 PHFO 221145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE JUL 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 221145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE JUL 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 221145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE JUL 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 221145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE JUL 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221123
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MARTES 22 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS...LOCALIZADA BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES.

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ESTAN SIENDO
EMITIDAS BAJO EL TITULO WMO WTNT32 KNHC Y EN AWIPS BAJO EL
TITULO MIATCPAT2.
PRONOSTICOS/ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ESTAN
SIENDO EMITIDAS BAJO EL TITULO WTNT22 KNHC Y EN AWIPS BAJO EL TITULO
MIATCMAT2.

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221123
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MARTES 22 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS...LOCALIZADA BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES.

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ESTAN SIENDO
EMITIDAS BAJO EL TITULO WMO WTNT32 KNHC Y EN AWIPS BAJO EL
TITULO MIATCPAT2.
PRONOSTICOS/ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ESTAN
SIENDO EMITIDAS BAJO EL TITULO WTNT22 KNHC Y EN AWIPS BAJO EL TITULO
MIATCMAT2.

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 221121
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located well to east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 221121
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located well to east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
45.4W OR ABOUT 770 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-48W. SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-75W WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. A SHIP REPORTED 35
KT WINDS AT 0600 UTC NEAR 12N74W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL 23/1200
UTC. SEE THE LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N37W TO 11N37W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER IS N OF 15N HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N80W TO 10N80W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT TOGETHER WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N91W TO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AT 8N93W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N20W TO 6N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 6N31W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM
11N48W TO 9N52W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
20W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR
31N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 89W-94W. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5 -10 KT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE
DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER S
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A GALE
IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E GUATEMALA AND W HONDURAS
FROM 15N-16N BETWEEN 88W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN 24
HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE
CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 76W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64 WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N51W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
45.4W OR ABOUT 770 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-48W. SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-75W WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. A SHIP REPORTED 35
KT WINDS AT 0600 UTC NEAR 12N74W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL 23/1200
UTC. SEE THE LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N37W TO 11N37W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER IS N OF 15N HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N80W TO 10N80W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT TOGETHER WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N91W TO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AT 8N93W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N20W TO 6N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 6N31W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM
11N48W TO 9N52W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
20W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR
31N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 89W-94W. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5 -10 KT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE
DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER S
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A GALE
IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E GUATEMALA AND W HONDURAS
FROM 15N-16N BETWEEN 88W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN 24
HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE
CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 76W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64 WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N51W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220918
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NEAR 15N93W TO 7N93W MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 17N120W TO 11N121W MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS A WEAK WAVE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 139W IS NOW W OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA.

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 10N118W
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO
11N BETWEEN 117W AND 119W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W TO 119W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W ALONG 8N87W TO 7N95W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N103W TO 10N116W THEN RESUMES NEAR
10N121W 8N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 101W AND 110W AND
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 137W AND 141W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
114W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ALONG
COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N W OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW IS S OF MEXICO NEAR 16N108W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION N OF THE MONSOON ITCZ MAINLY BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N127W TO 23N124W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 26N136W. THIS CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE BUT IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN WITH A
1019 MB HIGH E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 30N123W AND A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING S-SW TO 22N117W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED W
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF
20N W OF 127W. THIS SCENARIO IS GIVING AREA S OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
GRADUALLY WEAKENS LATER TODAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND
GENERATE FRESH BREEZES ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 28N TODAY
AND STRONG BREEZES BY EARLY WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8
FT TODAY THEN EXPANDING W ON WED WITH SEAS TO 10 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTH WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
COUPLED WITH THE PRESENT TROPICAL WAVE WILL GIVE THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC STRONG BREEZE FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN WED MORNING.

$$
PAW



000
WTCA42 TJSJ 220837
TCPSP2

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   3
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL022014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MARTES 22 DE JULIO DE 2014

...DEPRESION TROPICAL CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE...


RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...12.2 NORTE 46.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 1025 MI...1645 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1012 MILIBARES...29.89 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
NO HAY AVISOS NI VIGILANCIAS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE
ESTE SISTEMA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DOS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 46.4
OESTE. LA DEPRESION ESTA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 16
MPH...26 KM/H...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS HOY Y ESTA
NOCHE...PERO ALGO DE DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA PARA EL MIERCOLES
EN LA NOCHE. LA DEPRESION ESTA PRONOSTICADA A DEGENERARSE A UNA
VAGUADA DE BAJA PRESION EN DOS A TRES DIAS.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MB...29.89 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
NINGUNO.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
WTCA42 TJSJ 220837
TCPSP2

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   3
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL022014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MARTES 22 DE JULIO DE 2014

...DEPRESION TROPICAL CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE...


RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...12.2 NORTE 46.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 1025 MI...1645 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1012 MILIBARES...29.89 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
NO HAY AVISOS NI VIGILANCIAS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE
ESTE SISTEMA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DOS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 46.4
OESTE. LA DEPRESION ESTA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 16
MPH...26 KM/H...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS HOY Y ESTA
NOCHE...PERO ALGO DE DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA PARA EL MIERCOLES
EN LA NOCHE. LA DEPRESION ESTA PRONOSTICADA A DEGENERARSE A UNA
VAGUADA DE BAJA PRESION EN DOS A TRES DIAS.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MB...29.89 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
NINGUNO.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN






000
WTNT32 KNHC 220832
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 46.4W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN TWO TO
THREE DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTNT32 KNHC 220832
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 46.4W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN TWO TO
THREE DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT22 KNHC 220831
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
0900 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  46.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  46.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  45.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N  48.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N  51.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.5N  54.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.5N  58.4W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N  46.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTNT22 KNHC 220831
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
0900 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  46.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  46.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  45.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N  48.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N  51.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.5N  54.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.5N  58.4W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N  46.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 220557
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$






000
ACPN50 PHFO 220557
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$






000
ACPN50 PHFO 220557
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$






000
ACPN50 PHFO 220557
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$






000
AXNT20 KNHC 220548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
45.1W OR ABOUT 850 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 45W-47W. SEE THE LATEST NHC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N36W TO 11N36W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE DEPICTED WELL ON
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER IS N OF 15N HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE WAVE EXTENDS
FROM 19N47W TO 13N47W MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWS
THIS WAVE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND WILL BE DROPPED ON THE NEXT
BULLETIN. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N77W TO 10N77W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE
INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
8N23W TO 11N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 11N34W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM
10N47W TO 10N55W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
19W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W. 5 -10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE
HIGH. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER FLORIDA...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...AND CUBA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
91W-93W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S
ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W-
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER EL SALVADOR
AND W HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN 24
HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE
CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 76W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W. PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64 WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N51W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
45.1W OR ABOUT 850 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 45W-47W. SEE THE LATEST NHC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N36W TO 11N36W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE DEPICTED WELL ON
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER IS N OF 15N HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE WAVE EXTENDS
FROM 19N47W TO 13N47W MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWS
THIS WAVE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND WILL BE DROPPED ON THE NEXT
BULLETIN. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N77W TO 10N77W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE
INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
8N23W TO 11N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 11N34W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM
10N47W TO 10N55W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
19W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W. 5 -10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE
HIGH. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER FLORIDA...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...AND CUBA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
91W-93W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S
ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W-
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER EL SALVADOR
AND W HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN 24
HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE
CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 76W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W. PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64 WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N51W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220514
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula have become more concentrated
since this afternoon.  Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system
is possible during the weekend as it moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 220513
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 22 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS...LOCALIZADA BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES.

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ESTAN SIENDO
EMITIDAS BAJO EL TITULO WMO WTNT32 KNHC Y EN AWIPS BAJO EL
TITULO MIATCPAT2.
PRONOSTICOS/ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ESTAN
SIENDO EMITIDAS BAJO EL TITULO WTNT22 KNHC Y EN AWIPS BAJO EL TITULO
MIATCMAT2.

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 220513
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 22 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS...LOCALIZADA BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES.

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ESTAN SIENDO
EMITIDAS BAJO EL TITULO WMO WTNT32 KNHC Y EN AWIPS BAJO EL
TITULO MIATCPAT2.
PRONOSTICOS/ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ESTAN
SIENDO EMITIDAS BAJO EL TITULO WTNT22 KNHC Y EN AWIPS BAJO EL TITULO
MIATCMAT2.

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 220508
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located well to east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 220508
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located well to east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220308
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA TO 06N91W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION
OF THE WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO 11N118W MOVING W 10 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 11N TO 17N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS 16N139W TO 08N139W...SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
FROM 08N TO 13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 07N90W. ITCZ FROM 07N90W TO
11N105W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10N116W TO 11N125W TO 11N137W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 83W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N126W TO 24N135W TO
25N140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N132W THROUGH 27N125W 30N124W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 70-
80 KT. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 30N131W TO 25N137W. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

AN EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DOMINATES THE
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 120W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A COL NEAR
17N124W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
15N105W WAS MOVING W AT 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-15N W
OF 132W WILL BRIEFLY SHRINK TO AN AREA W OF 135W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO 125W AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF
THE AREA BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED.

A WEAKER PULSE OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ENTER INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 12
HOURS...THEN WEAKEN LATER TUE BEFORE A STRONGER PULSE OF 20-30
KT TUE NIGHT/WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY WED.

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220308
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA TO 06N91W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION
OF THE WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO 11N118W MOVING W 10 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 11N TO 17N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS 16N139W TO 08N139W...SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
FROM 08N TO 13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 07N90W. ITCZ FROM 07N90W TO
11N105W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10N116W TO 11N125W TO 11N137W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 83W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N126W TO 24N135W TO
25N140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N132W THROUGH 27N125W 30N124W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 70-
80 KT. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 30N131W TO 25N137W. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

AN EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DOMINATES THE
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 120W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A COL NEAR
17N124W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
15N105W WAS MOVING W AT 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-15N W
OF 132W WILL BRIEFLY SHRINK TO AN AREA W OF 135W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO 125W AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF
THE AREA BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED.

A WEAKER PULSE OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ENTER INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 12
HOURS...THEN WEAKEN LATER TUE BEFORE A STRONGER PULSE OF 20-30
KT TUE NIGHT/WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY WED.

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220308
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA TO 06N91W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION
OF THE WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO 11N118W MOVING W 10 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 11N TO 17N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS 16N139W TO 08N139W...SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
FROM 08N TO 13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 07N90W. ITCZ FROM 07N90W TO
11N105W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10N116W TO 11N125W TO 11N137W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 83W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N126W TO 24N135W TO
25N140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N132W THROUGH 27N125W 30N124W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 70-
80 KT. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 30N131W TO 25N137W. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

AN EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DOMINATES THE
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 120W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A COL NEAR
17N124W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
15N105W WAS MOVING W AT 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-15N W
OF 132W WILL BRIEFLY SHRINK TO AN AREA W OF 135W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO 125W AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF
THE AREA BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED.

A WEAKER PULSE OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ENTER INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 12
HOURS...THEN WEAKEN LATER TUE BEFORE A STRONGER PULSE OF 20-30
KT TUE NIGHT/WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY WED.

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220308
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA TO 06N91W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION
OF THE WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO 11N118W MOVING W 10 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 11N TO 17N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS 16N139W TO 08N139W...SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
FROM 08N TO 13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 07N90W. ITCZ FROM 07N90W TO
11N105W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10N116W TO 11N125W TO 11N137W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 83W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N126W TO 24N135W TO
25N140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N132W THROUGH 27N125W 30N124W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 70-
80 KT. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 30N131W TO 25N137W. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

AN EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DOMINATES THE
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 120W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A COL NEAR
17N124W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
15N105W WAS MOVING W AT 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-15N W
OF 132W WILL BRIEFLY SHRINK TO AN AREA W OF 135W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO 125W AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF
THE AREA BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED.

A WEAKER PULSE OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ENTER INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 12
HOURS...THEN WEAKEN LATER TUE BEFORE A STRONGER PULSE OF 20-30
KT TUE NIGHT/WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY WED.

$$
COBB


000
WTCA42 TJSJ 220247
TCPSP2

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL022014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

...DEPRESION TROPICAL MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL
TROPICAL...


RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...12.0 NORTE 45.1 OESTE
CERCA DE 1110 MI...1790 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1012 MILIBARES...29.89 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
NO HAY AVISOS NI VIGILANCIAS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE
ESTE SISTEMA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DOS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 45.1
OESTE. LA DEPRESION ESTA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 16
MPH...26 KM/H...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO DURANTE LAS
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE DEBILITE Y SE
CONVIERTA EN REMANENTE DE UNA BAJA PRESION EL JUEVES.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MB...29.89 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
NINGUNO.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI







000
WTNT32 KNHC 220238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTNT32 KNHC 220238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTNT32 KNHC 220238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTNT32 KNHC 220238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTNT22 KNHC 220237
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  45.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  45.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  44.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.5N  47.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.0N  49.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.5N  52.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N  56.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.7N  63.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  45.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTNT22 KNHC 220237
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  45.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  45.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  44.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.5N  47.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.0N  49.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.5N  52.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N  56.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.7N  63.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  45.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220048
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM BELIZE TO 08N90W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF
THE WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N117W TO 10N118W MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 112W-120W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N137W TO 10N137W. LOW PRES ALONG
THE WAVE NOTED EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 138W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 07N90W. ITCZ FROM 07N90W TO LOW
PRES 09N115W TO 11N125W TO 11N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND
112W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 128W...AND
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 30N127W TO 26N135W TO
27N140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 23N135W THROUGH 25N130W 30N124W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 70-
85 KT. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N131W WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N134W THEN A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 27N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

AN EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DOMINATES THE
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 120W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A COL NEAR
17N124W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
15N105W WAS MOVING W AT 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-12N W
OF 130W WILL SHRINK TO AN AREA W OF 135W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO 125W AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA
BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ENTERING INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...WITH NE-E WINDS UP TO 20 KT FROM 10N-12N E OF 89W.
WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY
WED AFTERNOON.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220048
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM BELIZE TO 08N90W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF
THE WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N117W TO 10N118W MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 112W-120W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N137W TO 10N137W. LOW PRES ALONG
THE WAVE NOTED EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 138W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 07N90W. ITCZ FROM 07N90W TO LOW
PRES 09N115W TO 11N125W TO 11N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND
112W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 128W...AND
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 30N127W TO 26N135W TO
27N140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 23N135W THROUGH 25N130W 30N124W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 70-
85 KT. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N131W WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N134W THEN A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 27N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

AN EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DOMINATES THE
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 120W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A COL NEAR
17N124W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
15N105W WAS MOVING W AT 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-12N W
OF 130W WILL SHRINK TO AN AREA W OF 135W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO 125W AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA
BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ENTERING INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...WITH NE-E WINDS UP TO 20 KT FROM 10N-12N E OF 89W.
WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY
WED AFTERNOON.

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
FORMER LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS INTENSIFIED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 2000 UTC. AS OF 2100 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 43.8W OR ABOUT 1045 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 43W-46W.
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
42W-46W. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N35W TO 12N35W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE  IS SLIGHTLY N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS DETACHED FROM THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N44W TO 12N45W AT A SPEED OF 20 KT DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SE OF THE AXIS...NO OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N76W TO 10N76W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AS WELL AS A STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ARE FACTORS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
9N21W 12N35W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N43W TO 8N45W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N45W TO 8N52W
TO 7N58W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF FLORIDA AND
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W SW TO
29N87W TO 27N89W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE E-SE
GULF IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N E OF 89W
AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WHERE VARIABLE WINDS RANGE FROM
5-15 KT. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. EXCEPT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE
POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE
MORNING...SURFACE RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N75W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N77W. THIS WIND PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE
ALONG CUBA WHICH ALONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THIS ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA MOVING
ACROSS JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THE TIME. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT AND EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS...THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N48W IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MONA
PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER INLAND AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BEING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AHEAD... OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30
KT OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N75W WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATE A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL WATERS. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TUE MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC AND THE WIND FLOW OF
AN IMMEDIATE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION OF THE ATLC. THIS ALONG WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. SEE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 31N58W TO 24N62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N39W AND A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
FORMER LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS INTENSIFIED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 2000 UTC. AS OF 2100 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 43.8W OR ABOUT 1045 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 43W-46W.
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
42W-46W. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N35W TO 12N35W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE  IS SLIGHTLY N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS DETACHED FROM THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N44W TO 12N45W AT A SPEED OF 20 KT DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SE OF THE AXIS...NO OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N76W TO 10N76W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AS WELL AS A STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ARE FACTORS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
9N21W 12N35W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N43W TO 8N45W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N45W TO 8N52W
TO 7N58W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF FLORIDA AND
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W SW TO
29N87W TO 27N89W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE E-SE
GULF IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N E OF 89W
AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WHERE VARIABLE WINDS RANGE FROM
5-15 KT. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. EXCEPT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE
POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE
MORNING...SURFACE RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N75W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N77W. THIS WIND PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE
ALONG CUBA WHICH ALONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THIS ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA MOVING
ACROSS JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THE TIME. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT AND EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS...THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N48W IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MONA
PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER INLAND AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BEING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AHEAD... OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30
KT OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N75W WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATE A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL WATERS. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TUE MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC AND THE WIND FLOW OF
AN IMMEDIATE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION OF THE ATLC. THIS ALONG WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. SEE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 31N58W TO 24N62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N39W AND A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
FORMER LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS INTENSIFIED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 2000 UTC. AS OF 2100 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 43.8W OR ABOUT 1045 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 43W-46W.
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
42W-46W. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N35W TO 12N35W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE  IS SLIGHTLY N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS DETACHED FROM THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N44W TO 12N45W AT A SPEED OF 20 KT DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SE OF THE AXIS...NO OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N76W TO 10N76W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AS WELL AS A STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ARE FACTORS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
9N21W 12N35W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N43W TO 8N45W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N45W TO 8N52W
TO 7N58W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF FLORIDA AND
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W SW TO
29N87W TO 27N89W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE E-SE
GULF IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N E OF 89W
AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WHERE VARIABLE WINDS RANGE FROM
5-15 KT. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. EXCEPT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE
POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE
MORNING...SURFACE RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N75W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N77W. THIS WIND PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE
ALONG CUBA WHICH ALONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THIS ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA MOVING
ACROSS JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THE TIME. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT AND EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS...THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N48W IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MONA
PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER INLAND AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BEING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AHEAD... OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30
KT OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N75W WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATE A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL WATERS. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TUE MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC AND THE WIND FLOW OF
AN IMMEDIATE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION OF THE ATLC. THIS ALONG WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. SEE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 31N58W TO 24N62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N39W AND A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
FORMER LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS INTENSIFIED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 2000 UTC. AS OF 2100 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 43.8W OR ABOUT 1045 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 43W-46W.
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
42W-46W. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N35W TO 12N35W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE  IS SLIGHTLY N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS DETACHED FROM THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N44W TO 12N45W AT A SPEED OF 20 KT DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SE OF THE AXIS...NO OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N76W TO 10N76W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AS WELL AS A STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ARE FACTORS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
9N21W 12N35W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N43W TO 8N45W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N45W TO 8N52W
TO 7N58W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF FLORIDA AND
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W SW TO
29N87W TO 27N89W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE E-SE
GULF IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N E OF 89W
AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WHERE VARIABLE WINDS RANGE FROM
5-15 KT. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. EXCEPT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE
POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE
MORNING...SURFACE RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N75W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N77W. THIS WIND PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE
ALONG CUBA WHICH ALONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THIS ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA MOVING
ACROSS JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THE TIME. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT AND EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS...THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N48W IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MONA
PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER INLAND AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BEING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AHEAD... OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30
KT OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N75W WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATE A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL WATERS. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TUE MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC AND THE WIND FLOW OF
AN IMMEDIATE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION OF THE ATLC. THIS ALONG WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. SEE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 31N58W TO 24N62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N39W AND A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACPN50 PHFO 212340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BFUJII






000
ACPN50 PHFO 212340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BFUJII





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212322
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
RECIEN FORMADA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS...LOCALIZADA AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES.

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212322
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
RECIEN FORMADA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS...LOCALIZADA AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES.

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212322
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
RECIEN FORMADA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS...LOCALIZADA AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES.

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212322
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
RECIEN FORMADA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS...LOCALIZADA AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES.

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI




000
ABNT20 KNHC 212321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two, located to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 212321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two, located to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 212321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two, located to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 212321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two, located to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212320
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system should be
slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast
of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is
possible by this weekend as it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212320
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system should be
slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast
of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is
possible by this weekend as it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
WTCA42 TJSJ 212043
TCPSP2

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   1
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL022014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE FORMA EN EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL TROPICAL...


RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...11.6 NORTE 43.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 1205 MI...1935 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1012 MILIBARES...29.89 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
NO HAY AVISOS NI VIGILANCIAS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 43.8
OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26
KM/H...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE DEBILITE Y SE CONVIERTA EN
REMANENTE DE BAJA PRESION EL JUEVES.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MB...29.89 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
NINGUNO.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 PM AST.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN







000
WTCA42 TJSJ 212043
TCPSP2

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   1
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL022014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE FORMA EN EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL TROPICAL...


RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...11.6 NORTE 43.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 1205 MI...1935 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1012 MILIBARES...29.89 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
NO HAY AVISOS NI VIGILANCIAS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 43.8
OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26
KM/H...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE DEBILITE Y SE CONVIERTA EN
REMANENTE DE BAJA PRESION EL JUEVES.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MB...29.89 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
NINGUNO.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 PM AST.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN








000
WTNT32 KNHC 212032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 43.8W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTNT32 KNHC 212032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 43.8W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTNT32 KNHC 212032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 43.8W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTNT32 KNHC 212032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 43.8W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTNT22 KNHC 212031
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  43.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  43.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  43.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.9N  45.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.3N  48.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.8N  51.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.4N  54.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N  61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N  43.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
AXNT20 KNHC 211756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N42W TO 17N40W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
NEAR 11N42W AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 21/1210
UTC DEPICTING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
SURROUNDING THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N32W TO 21N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 28W-37W
WITH A 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTERED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-13N
BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N73W TO 17N72W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD 700 MB TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING MOST OF THE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY LIES S OF 13N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 69W-75W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 18N86W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 83W-86W AND IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N20W TO 12N37W TO 11N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N42W TO 09N44W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 13W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N87W THAT
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 29N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 82W-89W. FARTHER SOUTH...NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS S OF 26N WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL
STABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO A SURFACE
RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA W-
SW TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
20N98W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND ANCHOR ALONG 27N/28N THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N74W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N79W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND
PANAMA...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 18N
BETWEEN 75W-84W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
73W GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 69W-75W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE CONTINUE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...
OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY ARE
REACHED...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 17N74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS CENTERED
OVER ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 35N. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING
FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 74W-80W. FARTHER EAST...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N64W THAT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N60W TO 33N58W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 34N33W AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N42W TO 17N40W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
NEAR 11N42W AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 21/1210
UTC DEPICTING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
SURROUNDING THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N32W TO 21N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 28W-37W
WITH A 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTERED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-13N
BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N73W TO 17N72W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD 700 MB TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING MOST OF THE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY LIES S OF 13N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 69W-75W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 18N86W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 83W-86W AND IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N20W TO 12N37W TO 11N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N42W TO 09N44W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 13W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N87W THAT
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 29N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 82W-89W. FARTHER SOUTH...NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS S OF 26N WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL
STABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO A SURFACE
RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA W-
SW TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
20N98W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND ANCHOR ALONG 27N/28N THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N74W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N79W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND
PANAMA...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 18N
BETWEEN 75W-84W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
73W GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 69W-75W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE CONTINUE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...
OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY ARE
REACHED...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 17N74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS CENTERED
OVER ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 35N. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING
FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 74W-80W. FARTHER EAST...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N64W THAT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N60W TO 33N58W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 34N33W AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N42W TO 17N40W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
NEAR 11N42W AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 21/1210
UTC DEPICTING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
SURROUNDING THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N32W TO 21N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 28W-37W
WITH A 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTERED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-13N
BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N73W TO 17N72W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD 700 MB TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING MOST OF THE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY LIES S OF 13N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 69W-75W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 18N86W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 83W-86W AND IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N20W TO 12N37W TO 11N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N42W TO 09N44W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 13W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N87W THAT
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 29N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 82W-89W. FARTHER SOUTH...NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS S OF 26N WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL
STABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO A SURFACE
RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA W-
SW TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
20N98W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND ANCHOR ALONG 27N/28N THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N74W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N79W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND
PANAMA...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 18N
BETWEEN 75W-84W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
73W GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 69W-75W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE CONTINUE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...
OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY ARE
REACHED...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 17N74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS CENTERED
OVER ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 35N. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING
FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 74W-80W. FARTHER EAST...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N64W THAT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N60W TO 33N58W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 34N33W AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N42W TO 17N40W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
NEAR 11N42W AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 21/1210
UTC DEPICTING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
SURROUNDING THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N32W TO 21N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 28W-37W
WITH A 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTERED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-13N
BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N73W TO 17N72W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD 700 MB TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING MOST OF THE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY LIES S OF 13N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 69W-75W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 18N86W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 83W-86W AND IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N20W TO 12N37W TO 11N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N42W TO 09N44W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 13W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N87W THAT
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 29N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 82W-89W. FARTHER SOUTH...NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS S OF 26N WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL
STABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO A SURFACE
RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA W-
SW TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
20N98W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND ANCHOR ALONG 27N/28N THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N74W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N79W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND
PANAMA...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 18N
BETWEEN 75W-84W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
73W GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 69W-75W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE CONTINUE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...
OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY ARE
REACHED...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 17N74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS CENTERED
OVER ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 35N. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING
FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 74W-80W. FARTHER EAST...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N64W THAT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N60W TO 33N58W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 34N33W AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 211740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

BFUJII






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211737
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADOS CON UN PEQUENO AREA DE BAJA
PRESION LOCALIZADO CERCA DE 1250 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES HA CONTINUADO AUMENTANDO Y CONTINUA MOSTRANDO INDICIOS DE
ORGANIZACION DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE
INDICAN QUE UNA CIRCULACION SE TORNADO MEJOR DEFINDA Y EL SISTEMA
PRODUCE UN PEQUENO AREA DE VIENTOS CERCA DE LA FUERZA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL. SOLO UN PEQUENO AUMENTO EN LA ORGANIZACION DE LA ACTIVIDAD
DE AGUACEROS RESUTARA EN LA FORMACION DE UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL
MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE DE 15 A
20 MPH DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LUEGO DE ESTO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO SEAN TAN FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO. LOS
INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE
ESTE SISTEMA.

* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...70 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...70 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211737
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADOS CON UN PEQUENO AREA DE BAJA
PRESION LOCALIZADO CERCA DE 1250 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES HA CONTINUADO AUMENTANDO Y CONTINUA MOSTRANDO INDICIOS DE
ORGANIZACION DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE
INDICAN QUE UNA CIRCULACION SE TORNADO MEJOR DEFINDA Y EL SISTEMA
PRODUCE UN PEQUENO AREA DE VIENTOS CERCA DE LA FUERZA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL. SOLO UN PEQUENO AUMENTO EN LA ORGANIZACION DE LA ACTIVIDAD
DE AGUACEROS RESUTARA EN LA FORMACION DE UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL
MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE DE 15 A
20 MPH DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LUEGO DE ESTO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO SEAN TAN FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO. LOS
INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE
ESTE SISTEMA.

* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...70 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...70 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211729
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have decreased this morning
in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Development, if any,
of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so as
it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is
possible by this weekend as it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211729
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have decreased this morning
in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Development, if any,
of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so as
it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is
possible by this weekend as it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABNT20 KNHC 211724
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to
increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours.
Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better
defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near
tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the
shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical
depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two.  After that time, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 211724
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to
increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours.
Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better
defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near
tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the
shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical
depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two.  After that time, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W TO 10N116W MOVING W 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 114W-118W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N135W TO 1009 MB LOW 12N137W.
CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 8N89W. ITCZ FROM 8N89W TO LOW PRES
9N113W TO 10N125W TO 9N130W TO 11N135W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N E OF 92W AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 30N127W TO 27N135W TO 29N140W. A WEAK
75 KT JETSTREAM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 26N140W TO 24N130W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 18N120W TO 15N140W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N103W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS ENHANCING
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 104W-107W.

A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT TO A 1015 MB NEAR 29N134W THEN COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO
27N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-12N W
OF 130W WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG
ELY WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ENTERING INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH NE-E WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 10N-12N E OF
89W. THESES CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W TO 10N116W MOVING W 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 114W-118W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N135W TO 1009 MB LOW 12N137W.
CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 8N89W. ITCZ FROM 8N89W TO LOW PRES
9N113W TO 10N125W TO 9N130W TO 11N135W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N E OF 92W AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 30N127W TO 27N135W TO 29N140W. A WEAK
75 KT JETSTREAM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 26N140W TO 24N130W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 18N120W TO 15N140W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N103W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS ENHANCING
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 104W-107W.

A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT TO A 1015 MB NEAR 29N134W THEN COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO
27N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-12N W
OF 130W WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG
ELY WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ENTERING INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH NE-E WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 10N-12N E OF
89W. THESES CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W TO 10N116W MOVING W 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 114W-118W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N135W TO 1009 MB LOW 12N137W.
CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 8N89W. ITCZ FROM 8N89W TO LOW PRES
9N113W TO 10N125W TO 9N130W TO 11N135W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N E OF 92W AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 30N127W TO 27N135W TO 29N140W. A WEAK
75 KT JETSTREAM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 26N140W TO 24N130W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 18N120W TO 15N140W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N103W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS ENHANCING
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 104W-107W.

A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT TO A 1015 MB NEAR 29N134W THEN COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO
27N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-12N W
OF 130W WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG
ELY WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ENTERING INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH NE-E WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 10N-12N E OF
89W. THESES CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W TO 10N116W MOVING W 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 114W-118W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N135W TO 1009 MB LOW 12N137W.
CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 8N89W. ITCZ FROM 8N89W TO LOW PRES
9N113W TO 10N125W TO 9N130W TO 11N135W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N E OF 92W AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 30N127W TO 27N135W TO 29N140W. A WEAK
75 KT JETSTREAM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 26N140W TO 24N130W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 18N120W TO 15N140W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N103W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS ENHANCING
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 104W-107W.

A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT TO A 1015 MB NEAR 29N134W THEN COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO
27N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-12N W
OF 130W WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG
ELY WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ENTERING INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH NE-E WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 10N-12N E OF
89W. THESES CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211521
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W TO 10N116W MOVING W 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 114W-118W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N135W TO 1009 MB LOW 12N137W.
CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 8N89W. ITCZ FROM 8N89W TO LOW PRES
9N113W TO 10N125W TO 9N130W TO 11N135W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N E OF 92W AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 30N127W TO 27N135W TO 29N140W. A WEAK
75 KT JETSTREAM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 26N140W TO 24N130W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 18N120W TO 15N140W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N103W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS ENHANCING
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 104W-107W.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-12N W
OF 130W WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG
ELY WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ENTERING INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH NE-E WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 10N-12N E OF
89W. THESES CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211521
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W TO 10N116W MOVING W 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 114W-118W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N135W TO 1009 MB LOW 12N137W.
CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 8N89W. ITCZ FROM 8N89W TO LOW PRES
9N113W TO 10N125W TO 9N130W TO 11N135W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N E OF 92W AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 30N127W TO 27N135W TO 29N140W. A WEAK
75 KT JETSTREAM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 26N140W TO 24N130W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 18N120W TO 15N140W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N103W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS ENHANCING
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 104W-107W.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-12N W
OF 130W WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG
ELY WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ENTERING INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH NE-E WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 10N-12N E OF
89W. THESES CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
DGS


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211519
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL EMITIDO PARA REVISAR DISCUSION SOBRE SISTEMA EN
ATLANTICO CENTRAL TROPICAL.

REVISION: LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADOS CON UN PEQUENO AREA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO EN UN PUNTO MEDIO ENTRE LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES HA AUMENTADO POCO DURANTE LAS PASADAS
HORAS. AUNQUE LA ACTIVIDAD PERMANECE MUY LIMITADA. CONTINUA
MOSTRANDO INDICIOS DE ORGANIZACION . LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE
INDICAN QUE UNA CIRCULACION CERRADA PUDIERA ESTAR FORMANDOSE Y EL
SISTEMA PRODUCE UN PEQUENO AREA DE VIENTOS CERCA DE LA FUERZA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL. UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PODRIA FORMARSE DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U
OESTE NOROESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH. LUEGO DE ESTO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO SEAN TAN FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO. LOS
INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE
ESTE SISTEMA.

* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...50 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...50 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN/ROBERTS




000
ABNT20 KNHC 211507
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts



000
ABNT20 KNHC 211507
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211150
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE 1200 MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADO DURANTE LAS
PASADAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...DESARROLLO...SI ALGUNO...DE ESTE
SISTEMA DEBERA SER LENTO DE OCURRIR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH.
LUEGO DE ESTO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO SEAN
TAN FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN/ROBERTS





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211150
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE 1200 MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADO DURANTE LAS
PASADAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...DESARROLLO...SI ALGUNO...DE ESTE
SISTEMA DEBERA SER LENTO DE OCURRIR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH.
LUEGO DE ESTO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO SEAN
TAN FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN/ROBERTS




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211149
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although convective activity
remains limited, some slow development of this system is still
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is
possible by this weekend as it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211149
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although convective activity
remains limited, some slow development of this system is still
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is
possible by this weekend as it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brennan



000
ACPN50 PHFO 211145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$
DONALDSON








000
ACPN50 PHFO 211145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$
DONALDSON








000
ACPN50 PHFO 211145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$
DONALDSON








000
ACPN50 PHFO 211145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$
DONALDSON








000
ABNT20 KNHC 211142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N28W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF
15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
27W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N39W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N40W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N67W TO 8N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 66W-69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N84W TO 11N85W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N22W TO 11N36W TO 8N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N44W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 6N57W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 85W-87W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N88W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF 92W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO N
FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E
GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CUBA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE
CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N79W TO CUBA AT
21N79W. A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N28W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF
15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
27W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N39W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N40W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N67W TO 8N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 66W-69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N84W TO 11N85W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N22W TO 11N36W TO 8N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N44W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 6N57W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 85W-87W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N88W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF 92W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO N
FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E
GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CUBA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE
CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N79W TO CUBA AT
21N79W. A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N28W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF
15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
27W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N39W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N40W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N67W TO 8N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 66W-69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N84W TO 11N85W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N22W TO 11N36W TO 8N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N44W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 6N57W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 85W-87W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N88W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF 92W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO N
FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E
GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CUBA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE
CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N79W TO CUBA AT
21N79W. A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N28W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF
15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
27W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N39W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N40W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N67W TO 8N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 66W-69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N84W TO 11N85W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N22W TO 11N36W TO 8N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N44W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 6N57W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 85W-87W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N88W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF 92W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO N
FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E
GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CUBA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE
CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N79W TO CUBA AT
21N79W. A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 6N118W MOVING W 15 TO 20
KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS APPROACHING A REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W TO
122W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N136W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
9N136W TO 7N136W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY STABLE AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS IS LIMITING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W TO 139W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W TO 6N92W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N92W 6N101W 9N107W TO 8N111W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 8N120W TO 9N135W THEN RESUMES 9N137W TO BEYOND
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 6N E OF
80W AND FROM 3N TO 6N E OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N80W TO 4N92W AND FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 102W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
EAST OF 110W...AN UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING THE
CONVECTION FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 80W TO OVER
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LOW IS S OF MEXICO NEAR 14N101W
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF
16N TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. THIS UPPER LOW
GENERATED AN OUTFLOW FLOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALSO
PRODUCED WINDS TO 30 KT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW WEAKENING
AND THE WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING.

WEST OF 110W...A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N130W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 32N125W THROUGH THE UPPER
LOW TO BEYOND 31N140W. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 31N131W WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO
28N135W. THIS IS DISRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH WELL NW OF THE AREA AND A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 27N124W TO 23N115W. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 110W. THIS DISRUPTED SURFACE
RIDGE IS GIVING AREA S OF THE RIDGE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH
FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 136W. THE
LOW/FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY LATE TUE REBUILDING THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO GENERATE FRESH BREEZES ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA
N OF 28N EARLY WED.

GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT AND SEAS TO 9 FT WED.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 6N118W MOVING W 15 TO 20
KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS APPROACHING A REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W TO
122W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N136W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
9N136W TO 7N136W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY STABLE AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS IS LIMITING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W TO 139W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W TO 6N92W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N92W 6N101W 9N107W TO 8N111W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 8N120W TO 9N135W THEN RESUMES 9N137W TO BEYOND
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 6N E OF
80W AND FROM 3N TO 6N E OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N80W TO 4N92W AND FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 102W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
EAST OF 110W...AN UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING THE
CONVECTION FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 80W TO OVER
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LOW IS S OF MEXICO NEAR 14N101W
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF
16N TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. THIS UPPER LOW
GENERATED AN OUTFLOW FLOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALSO
PRODUCED WINDS TO 30 KT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW WEAKENING
AND THE WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING.

WEST OF 110W...A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N130W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 32N125W THROUGH THE UPPER
LOW TO BEYOND 31N140W. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 31N131W WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO
28N135W. THIS IS DISRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH WELL NW OF THE AREA AND A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 27N124W TO 23N115W. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 110W. THIS DISRUPTED SURFACE
RIDGE IS GIVING AREA S OF THE RIDGE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH
FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 136W. THE
LOW/FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY LATE TUE REBUILDING THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO GENERATE FRESH BREEZES ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA
N OF 28N EARLY WED.

GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT AND SEAS TO 9 FT WED.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 6N118W MOVING W 15 TO 20
KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS APPROACHING A REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W TO
122W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N136W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
9N136W TO 7N136W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY STABLE AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS IS LIMITING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W TO 139W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W TO 6N92W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N92W 6N101W 9N107W TO 8N111W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 8N120W TO 9N135W THEN RESUMES 9N137W TO BEYOND
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 6N E OF
80W AND FROM 3N TO 6N E OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N80W TO 4N92W AND FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 102W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
EAST OF 110W...AN UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING THE
CONVECTION FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 80W TO OVER
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LOW IS S OF MEXICO NEAR 14N101W
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF
16N TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. THIS UPPER LOW
GENERATED AN OUTFLOW FLOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALSO
PRODUCED WINDS TO 30 KT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW WEAKENING
AND THE WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING.

WEST OF 110W...A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N130W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 32N125W THROUGH THE UPPER
LOW TO BEYOND 31N140W. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 31N131W WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO
28N135W. THIS IS DISRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH WELL NW OF THE AREA AND A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 27N124W TO 23N115W. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 110W. THIS DISRUPTED SURFACE
RIDGE IS GIVING AREA S OF THE RIDGE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH
FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 136W. THE
LOW/FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY LATE TUE REBUILDING THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO GENERATE FRESH BREEZES ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA
N OF 28N EARLY WED.

GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT AND SEAS TO 9 FT WED.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 6N118W MOVING W 15 TO 20
KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS APPROACHING A REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W TO
122W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N136W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
9N136W TO 7N136W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY STABLE AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS IS LIMITING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W TO 139W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W TO 6N92W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N92W 6N101W 9N107W TO 8N111W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 8N120W TO 9N135W THEN RESUMES 9N137W TO BEYOND
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 6N E OF
80W AND FROM 3N TO 6N E OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N80W TO 4N92W AND FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 102W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
EAST OF 110W...AN UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING THE
CONVECTION FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 80W TO OVER
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LOW IS S OF MEXICO NEAR 14N101W
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF
16N TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. THIS UPPER LOW
GENERATED AN OUTFLOW FLOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALSO
PRODUCED WINDS TO 30 KT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW WEAKENING
AND THE WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING.

WEST OF 110W...A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N130W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 32N125W THROUGH THE UPPER
LOW TO BEYOND 31N140W. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 31N131W WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO
28N135W. THIS IS DISRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH WELL NW OF THE AREA AND A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 27N124W TO 23N115W. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 110W. THIS DISRUPTED SURFACE
RIDGE IS GIVING AREA S OF THE RIDGE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH
FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 136W. THE
LOW/FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY LATE TUE REBUILDING THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO GENERATE FRESH BREEZES ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA
N OF 28N EARLY WED.

GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT AND SEAS TO 9 FT WED.

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N26W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF
15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N38W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N38W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N66W TO 9N68W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 65W-67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N82W TO 10N83W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N24W TO 11N38W TO 9N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N41W TO 7N45W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W. 10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF
90W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER
THE E GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAIN OVER CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N79W TO CUBA AT
22N79W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N26W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF
15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N38W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N38W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N66W TO 9N68W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 65W-67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N82W TO 10N83W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N24W TO 11N38W TO 9N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N41W TO 7N45W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W. 10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF
90W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER
THE E GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAIN OVER CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N79W TO CUBA AT
22N79W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N26W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF
15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N38W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N38W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N66W TO 9N68W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 65W-67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N82W TO 10N83W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N24W TO 11N38W TO 9N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N41W TO 7N45W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W. 10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF
90W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER
THE E GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAIN OVER CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N79W TO CUBA AT
22N79W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N26W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF
15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N38W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N38W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N66W TO 9N68W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 65W-67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N82W TO 10N83W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N24W TO 11N38W TO 9N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N41W TO 7N45W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W. 10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF
90W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER
THE E GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAIN OVER CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N79W TO CUBA AT
22N79W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 210545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN JUL 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$
DONALDSON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 210545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN JUL 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$
DONALDSON





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210504
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL
OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADOS. DESARROLLO...SI ALGUNO...DE
ESTE SISTEMA DEBERA SER LENTO DE OCURRIR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH.
LUEGO DE ESTO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO SEAN
FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210504
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL
OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADOS. DESARROLLO...SI ALGUNO...DE
ESTE SISTEMA DEBERA SER LENTO DE OCURRIR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH.
LUEGO DE ESTO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO SEAN
FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with
an area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.  Some slow development of this system is still
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with
an area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.  Some slow development of this system is still
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 210500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur over the next couple of days
while it moves to the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph.  After
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABNT20 KNHC 210500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur over the next couple of days
while it moves to the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph.  After
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210303
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EARLIER ALONG 111W WAS RELOCATED TO THE WEST AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 16N115W TO 08N117W MOVING W AT AN
ESTIMATED 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 14N. THE WAVE
HAS MOVED AHEAD OF A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 09N111W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
150 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WAS SITUATED IN
AN AREA OF LIFT ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 118W/119W FROM 10N TO 23N.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH LATE
TUE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N132W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR
11N133W TO 07N133W MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY AIR DUE TO SUBSIDENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 13N147W. AS A RESULT THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 FT IN THE WAKE OF
THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 06N95W. ITCZ FROM 06N95W TO
10N110W TO 07N120W TO 10N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF
1008 MB LOW PRES CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09N111W...AND FROM
11N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENSIVE AND ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
29N131W AND WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER TROUGH WHICH COVERED
THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 120W. THIS CIRCULATION WAS PROVIDING
SUPPORT TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N127W TO
25N136W. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS UP THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND IS ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WEAK TRADE
WIND FLOW S OF 20N.

ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N99.5W IS ENHANCING A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
WEAKENED AS THEY MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM RESIDUAL GAP WIND
DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER OVERNIGHT.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT AT TIMES.

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210303
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EARLIER ALONG 111W WAS RELOCATED TO THE WEST AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 16N115W TO 08N117W MOVING W AT AN
ESTIMATED 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 14N. THE WAVE
HAS MOVED AHEAD OF A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 09N111W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
150 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WAS SITUATED IN
AN AREA OF LIFT ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 118W/119W FROM 10N TO 23N.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH LATE
TUE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N132W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR
11N133W TO 07N133W MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY AIR DUE TO SUBSIDENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 13N147W. AS A RESULT THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 FT IN THE WAKE OF
THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 06N95W. ITCZ FROM 06N95W TO
10N110W TO 07N120W TO 10N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF
1008 MB LOW PRES CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09N111W...AND FROM
11N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENSIVE AND ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
29N131W AND WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER TROUGH WHICH COVERED
THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 120W. THIS CIRCULATION WAS PROVIDING
SUPPORT TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N127W TO
25N136W. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS UP THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND IS ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WEAK TRADE
WIND FLOW S OF 20N.

ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N99.5W IS ENHANCING A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
WEAKENED AS THEY MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM RESIDUAL GAP WIND
DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER OVERNIGHT.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT AT TIMES.

$$
COBB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 202357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N22W TO 10N26W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING CLOSELY ENGULFED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 23W-
30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N36W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N36W AND
MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS EMBEDDED IN
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 12N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 33W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N63W TO 9N65W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM W OF ITS AXIS S OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 14N W OF 82W COINCIDING WITH A BULGE OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE N OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS CUBA BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N26W TO 10N34W. IT THEN RESUMES FROM 10N38W TO 6N44W TO 4N52W.
CONVECTION NOTED IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. SEE
ABOVE FOR DETAILS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A 1015
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN ALABAMA FROM WHICH
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N85W TO 30N89W 29N93W TO
INLAND TEXAS NEAR 29N97W. THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS COVERS THE GULF...THUS GENERATING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE N AND EASTERN BASIN TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N E OF 95W...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND START DISSIPATING
BY WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CUBA
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 14N W OF 81W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. TWO ELONGATED UPPER-
LEVEL LOWS...ONE TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA AND ANOTHER S OF THE
ISLAND ARE GENERATING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO SUPPORT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HAITI.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND. OTHERWISE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BY TUE
MORNING...ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

...HISPANIOLA...
TWO ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA AND
ANOTHER S OF THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT TO SUPPORT  HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND.
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL BASIN BY TUE MORNING...ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-80W OR NORTHERN/CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MID-
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N60W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 36NN49W TO 30N56W TO 26N60W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N36W WHICH ALONG
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 202357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N22W TO 10N26W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING CLOSELY ENGULFED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 23W-
30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N36W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N36W AND
MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS EMBEDDED IN
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 12N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 33W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N63W TO 9N65W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM W OF ITS AXIS S OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 14N W OF 82W COINCIDING WITH A BULGE OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE N OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS CUBA BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N26W TO 10N34W. IT THEN RESUMES FROM 10N38W TO 6N44W TO 4N52W.
CONVECTION NOTED IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. SEE
ABOVE FOR DETAILS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A 1015
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN ALABAMA FROM WHICH
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N85W TO 30N89W 29N93W TO
INLAND TEXAS NEAR 29N97W. THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS COVERS THE GULF...THUS GENERATING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE N AND EASTERN BASIN TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N E OF 95W...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND START DISSIPATING
BY WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CUBA
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 14N W OF 81W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. TWO ELONGATED UPPER-
LEVEL LOWS...ONE TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA AND ANOTHER S OF THE
ISLAND ARE GENERATING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO SUPPORT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HAITI.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND. OTHERWISE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BY TUE
MORNING...ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

...HISPANIOLA...
TWO ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA AND
ANOTHER S OF THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT TO SUPPORT  HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND.
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL BASIN BY TUE MORNING...ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-80W OR NORTHERN/CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MID-
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N60W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 36NN49W TO 30N56W TO 26N60W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N36W WHICH ALONG
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
ACPN50 PHFO 202347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN JUL 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 202347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN JUL 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202317
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION...ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL...ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO COMO A
900 MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LOS
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS PERMANECEN DESORGANIZADOS...Y
CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS DEBE DE SER LENTO.
LUEGO DE ALGUNOS DIAS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES EN EL AMBIENTE
NO SEAN FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE AL
OESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202317
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION...ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL...ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO COMO A
900 MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LOS
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS PERMANECEN DESORGANIZADOS...Y
CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS DEBE DE SER LENTO.
LUEGO DE ALGUNOS DIAS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES EN EL AMBIENTE
NO SEAN FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE AL
OESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202317
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION...ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL...ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO COMO A
900 MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LOS
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS PERMANECEN DESORGANIZADOS...Y
CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS DEBE DE SER LENTO.
LUEGO DE ALGUNOS DIAS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES EN EL AMBIENTE
NO SEAN FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE AL
OESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202317
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION...ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL...ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO COMO A
900 MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LOS
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS PERMANECEN DESORGANIZADOS...Y
CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS DEBE DE SER LENTO.
LUEGO DE ALGUNOS DIAS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES EN EL AMBIENTE
NO SEAN FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE AL
OESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202312
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, has changed little during the past few hours. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202312
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, has changed little during the past few hours. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 202311
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  The associated showers
and thunderstorms remain disorganized, and any development during
the next day or two should be slow to occur.  Beyond a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202311
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  The associated showers
and thunderstorms remain disorganized, and any development during
the next day or two should be slow to occur.  Beyond a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202131
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N111W TO 09N111W MOVING W 10 TO
15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ
WHERE A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 10N110W. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED BETWEEN 150 AND 240 NM
IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS WAS WITHIN AN AREA OF LIFT
ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG
117W N OF 10N. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH
TUE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N131W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
11N132W TO 08N132W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY AIR DUE TO
SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 13N145W. AS A RESULT
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. AN
EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 7 FT ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. SEAS TO
8 FT ARE STILL POSSIBLE HOWEVER NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH
ADDED INFLUENCE OF MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W. ITCZ FROM 07N95W TO
10N110W TO 06N120W TO 10N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 97.5W.
...AND FROM 05N TO 07N OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTERED
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENSIVE AND ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
30N131W...PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 30N128W TO 27N136W. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS UP THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND IS ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY
WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 20N.

ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N98W IS ENHANCING A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINTAINED IN PART
TO RESIDUAL GAP WIND DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT AT TIMES.

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N23W TO 17N22W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. EXAMINING UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES...THE WAVE PASSED
DAKAR SENEGAL AROUND 19/1800 UTC AND PAST GFS 700 MB AND 850 MB
RELATIVELY VORTICITY ANALYSIS FIELDS CONFIRM THE PASSAGE. AN
EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 20/1142 UTC INDICATES SLIGHT
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND. CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N35W TO 16N34W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITH IN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING AN ELONGATED AREA OF 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 30W-42W ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A 700 MB EASTERLY JET MAXIMUM. CONVECTION IS
LIMITED DUE TO A SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 12N...HOWEVER WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 32W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N62W TO 15N61W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 20/1324 UTC INDICATES
SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS STRONGER NE TO E
WINDS W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN
CONVECTION AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE
WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN
61W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N76W TO 20N77W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
WHICH IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 74W-79W AND IS LIKELY DUE TO A MARGINALLY
DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER CUBA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
10N21W TO 10N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N27W TO 10N35W TO 05N48W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGHING NEAR 31N87W. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED ACROSS SW ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING W-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N92W TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST NEAR 28N96W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-95W. FARTHER SOUTH...NORTHEASTERN
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 29N102W. THIS IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA W-SW TO A 1018 MB
HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND
ANCHOR ALONG 27N/28N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N73W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS W OF 82W...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-80W...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND EASTERN CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS THE PRESENCE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 61W-66W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE CONTINUE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...
OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOST OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY ARE
REACHED...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TO THE SOUTH NEAR 16N73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGHING FOCUSED AROUND MID-LEVEL ENERGY
CENTERED NEAR 30N80W. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGHING LIES INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND
ALABAMA...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING
FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE GENERATING OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 74W-
79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W-81W.
FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N58W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N59W TO
32N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 53W-
56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED
SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N23W TO 17N22W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. EXAMINING UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES...THE WAVE PASSED
DAKAR SENEGAL AROUND 19/1800 UTC AND PAST GFS 700 MB AND 850 MB
RELATIVELY VORTICITY ANALYSIS FIELDS CONFIRM THE PASSAGE. AN
EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 20/1142 UTC INDICATES SLIGHT
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND. CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N35W TO 16N34W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITH IN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING AN ELONGATED AREA OF 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 30W-42W ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A 700 MB EASTERLY JET MAXIMUM. CONVECTION IS
LIMITED DUE TO A SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 12N...HOWEVER WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 32W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N62W TO 15N61W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 20/1324 UTC INDICATES
SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS STRONGER NE TO E
WINDS W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN
CONVECTION AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE
WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN
61W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N76W TO 20N77W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
WHICH IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 74W-79W AND IS LIKELY DUE TO A MARGINALLY
DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER CUBA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
10N21W TO 10N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N27W TO 10N35W TO 05N48W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGHING NEAR 31N87W. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED ACROSS SW ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING W-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N92W TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST NEAR 28N96W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-95W. FARTHER SOUTH...NORTHEASTERN
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 29N102W. THIS IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA W-SW TO A 1018 MB
HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND
ANCHOR ALONG 27N/28N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N73W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS W OF 82W...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-80W...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND EASTERN CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS THE PRESENCE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 61W-66W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE CONTINUE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...
OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOST OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY ARE
REACHED...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TO THE SOUTH NEAR 16N73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGHING FOCUSED AROUND MID-LEVEL ENERGY
CENTERED NEAR 30N80W. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGHING LIES INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND
ALABAMA...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING
FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE GENERATING OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 74W-
79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W-81W.
FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N58W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N59W TO
32N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 53W-
56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED
SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 201745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 201745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201739
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION...ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL...ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO ENTRE
LA MITAD DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LOS
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN DESORGANIZADOS...Y CUALQUIER
DESARROLLO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS DEBE DE SER LENTO. LUEGO DE
ALGUNOS DIAS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES EN EL AMBIENTE NO SEAN
FAVORAVLES PARA DESARROLLO MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE AL OESTE DE
15 A 20 MPH.

* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201739
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION...ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL...ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO ENTRE
LA MITAD DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LOS
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN DESORGANIZADOS...Y CUALQUIER
DESARROLLO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS DEBE DE SER LENTO. LUEGO DE
ALGUNOS DIAS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES EN EL AMBIENTE NO SEAN
FAVORAVLES PARA DESARROLLO MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE AL OESTE DE
15 A 20 MPH.

* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201726
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 750 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, has become a little better organized during the past few
hours. Some slow development of this system is possible during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201726
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 750 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, has become a little better organized during the past few
hours. Some slow development of this system is possible during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 201725
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the
west coast of Africa and the Leeward Islands.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently disorganized, and any development during
the next day or two should be slow to occur.  Beyond a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201725
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the
west coast of Africa and the Leeward Islands.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently disorganized, and any development during
the next day or two should be slow to occur.  Beyond a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201725
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the
west coast of Africa and the Leeward Islands.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently disorganized, and any development during
the next day or two should be slow to occur.  Beyond a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201725
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the
west coast of Africa and the Leeward Islands.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently disorganized, and any development during
the next day or two should be slow to occur.  Beyond a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brennan


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201521
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N109W TO 09N110W MOVING W 10 TO
15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ
WHERE A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 09N108W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF
LIFT ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG 117W N OF 10N. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES
THROUGH TUE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N129W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
10N130W TO 07N130W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY AIR DUE TO
SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS
INDICATED SEAS TO 7 FT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE STILL POSSIBLE HOWEVER NEAR
THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH ADDED INFLUENCE OF MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W. THE ITCZ
REACHES FROM 07N95W TO 10N110W TO 06N120W TO 10N130W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 05N TO 07N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF 1009 MB LOW PRES
CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09M108W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N130W...PROVIDING SUPPORT TO
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING N OF 25N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THIS
BREAKS UP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND IS
ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 20N.

ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N95W IS ENHANCING A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DUE IN
PART TO MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201521
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N109W TO 09N110W MOVING W 10 TO
15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ
WHERE A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 09N108W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF
LIFT ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG 117W N OF 10N. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES
THROUGH TUE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N129W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
10N130W TO 07N130W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY AIR DUE TO
SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS
INDICATED SEAS TO 7 FT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE STILL POSSIBLE HOWEVER NEAR
THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH ADDED INFLUENCE OF MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W. THE ITCZ
REACHES FROM 07N95W TO 10N110W TO 06N120W TO 10N130W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 05N TO 07N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF 1009 MB LOW PRES
CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09M108W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N130W...PROVIDING SUPPORT TO
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING N OF 25N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THIS
BREAKS UP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND IS
ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 20N.

ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N95W IS ENHANCING A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DUE IN
PART TO MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201228
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201228
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201228
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201228
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 201145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$
DONALDSON




000
ACPN50 PHFO 201145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$
DONALDSON





000
ABNT20 KNHC 201142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small area of disturbed weather located about 750 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small area of disturbed weather located about 750 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small area of disturbed weather located about 750 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small area of disturbed weather located about 750 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N33W TO 8N37W MOVING W 15 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 13N57W TO
5N58W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N72W
TO 10N73W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 11N20W TO 9N33W TO 6N44W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N44W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W.
IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA TO GALVESTON TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 86W-92W. 10-15 KT SE
TO S SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED
MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF...FLORIDA...AND
CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA... FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 68W-80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N79W TO CUBA
AT 22N79W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 26N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W ENHANCING
SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N33W TO 8N37W MOVING W 15 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 13N57W TO
5N58W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N72W
TO 10N73W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 11N20W TO 9N33W TO 6N44W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N44W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W.
IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA TO GALVESTON TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 86W-92W. 10-15 KT SE
TO S SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED
MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF...FLORIDA...AND
CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA... FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 68W-80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N79W TO CUBA
AT 22N79W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 26N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W ENHANCING
SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200922
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N11W TO 7N107W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM W OF TROUGH S OF 13N. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT
LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N129W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N129W
MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TRADE
WINDS WITH FRESH BREEZE GENERATING SEAS TO 8 FT THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 9 FT AS THE WAVE APPROACHES 140W MON NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 8N85W 7N94W TO
8N101W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N107W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 9N110W TO 11N127W THEN RESUMES NEAR 9N131W TO
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN
95W AND 103W...FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W...FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 137W
AND 140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE THAT THE PRECIOUSLY
ANALYZED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N105W IS NOT A CLOSED SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR
15N94W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ E OF 103W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN INHIBITING
CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FURTHER
W...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W THROUGH AN UPPER
CYCLONE NEAR 31N133W TO BEYOND 32N140W WITH A LARGE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 118W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB LOW NW OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THROUGH 31N140W 23N120W AND REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING DESCRIBED ABOVE AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N125W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ON SUNDAY.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE EQUATOR TODAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST EARLY TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY WED...BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200922
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N11W TO 7N107W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM W OF TROUGH S OF 13N. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT
LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N129W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N129W
MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TRADE
WINDS WITH FRESH BREEZE GENERATING SEAS TO 8 FT THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 9 FT AS THE WAVE APPROACHES 140W MON NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 8N85W 7N94W TO
8N101W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N107W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 9N110W TO 11N127W THEN RESUMES NEAR 9N131W TO
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN
95W AND 103W...FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W...FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 137W
AND 140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE THAT THE PRECIOUSLY
ANALYZED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N105W IS NOT A CLOSED SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR
15N94W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ E OF 103W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN INHIBITING
CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FURTHER
W...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W THROUGH AN UPPER
CYCLONE NEAR 31N133W TO BEYOND 32N140W WITH A LARGE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 118W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB LOW NW OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THROUGH 31N140W 23N120W AND REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING DESCRIBED ABOVE AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N125W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ON SUNDAY.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE EQUATOR TODAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST EARLY TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY WED...BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200922
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N11W TO 7N107W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM W OF TROUGH S OF 13N. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT
LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N129W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N129W
MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TRADE
WINDS WITH FRESH BREEZE GENERATING SEAS TO 8 FT THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 9 FT AS THE WAVE APPROACHES 140W MON NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 8N85W 7N94W TO
8N101W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N107W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 9N110W TO 11N127W THEN RESUMES NEAR 9N131W TO
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN
95W AND 103W...FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W...FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 137W
AND 140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE THAT THE PRECIOUSLY
ANALYZED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N105W IS NOT A CLOSED SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR
15N94W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ E OF 103W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN INHIBITING
CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FURTHER
W...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W THROUGH AN UPPER
CYCLONE NEAR 31N133W TO BEYOND 32N140W WITH A LARGE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 118W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB LOW NW OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THROUGH 31N140W 23N120W AND REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING DESCRIBED ABOVE AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N125W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ON SUNDAY.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE EQUATOR TODAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST EARLY TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY WED...BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200922
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N11W TO 7N107W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM W OF TROUGH S OF 13N. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT
LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N129W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N129W
MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TRADE
WINDS WITH FRESH BREEZE GENERATING SEAS TO 8 FT THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 9 FT AS THE WAVE APPROACHES 140W MON NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 8N85W 7N94W TO
8N101W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N107W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 9N110W TO 11N127W THEN RESUMES NEAR 9N131W TO
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN
95W AND 103W...FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W...FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 137W
AND 140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE THAT THE PRECIOUSLY
ANALYZED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N105W IS NOT A CLOSED SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR
15N94W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ E OF 103W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN INHIBITING
CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FURTHER
W...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W THROUGH AN UPPER
CYCLONE NEAR 31N133W TO BEYOND 32N140W WITH A LARGE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 118W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB LOW NW OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THROUGH 31N140W 23N120W AND REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING DESCRIBED ABOVE AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N125W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ON SUNDAY.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE EQUATOR TODAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST EARLY TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY WED...BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
PAW


000
ACPN50 PHFO 200545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$
DONALDSON





000
ACPN50 PHFO 200545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$
DONALDSON






000
AXNT20 KNHC 200502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO AN EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 7N37W TO 5N36W MOVING W 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 32W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 14N55W TO
4N57W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N69W
TO 9N70W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 9N30W TO 7N40W TO 7N45W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N45W AND CONTINUES TO 10N55W. THE ITCZ RESUMES
W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N57W AND EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST NEAR 10N61W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM BATON ROUGE TO GALVESTON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. 10-15 KT SE TO S
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED MORE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAIN OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PANAMA. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 16N94W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N79W TO CUBA
AT 22N79W. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 24N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W ENHANCING SHOWERS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO AN EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 7N37W TO 5N36W MOVING W 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 32W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 14N55W TO
4N57W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N69W
TO 9N70W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 9N30W TO 7N40W TO 7N45W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N45W AND CONTINUES TO 10N55W. THE ITCZ RESUMES
W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N57W AND EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST NEAR 10N61W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM BATON ROUGE TO GALVESTON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. 10-15 KT SE TO S
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED MORE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAIN OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PANAMA. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 16N94W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N79W TO CUBA
AT 22N79W. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 24N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W ENHANCING SHOWERS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO AN EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 7N37W TO 5N36W MOVING W 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 32W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 14N55W TO
4N57W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N69W
TO 9N70W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 9N30W TO 7N40W TO 7N45W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N45W AND CONTINUES TO 10N55W. THE ITCZ RESUMES
W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N57W AND EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST NEAR 10N61W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM BATON ROUGE TO GALVESTON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. 10-15 KT SE TO S
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED MORE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAIN OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PANAMA. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 16N94W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N79W TO CUBA
AT 22N79W. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 24N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W ENHANCING SHOWERS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO AN EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 7N37W TO 5N36W MOVING W 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 32W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 14N55W TO
4N57W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N69W
TO 9N70W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 9N30W TO 7N40W TO 7N45W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N45W AND CONTINUES TO 10N55W. THE ITCZ RESUMES
W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N57W AND EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST NEAR 10N61W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM BATON ROUGE TO GALVESTON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. 10-15 KT SE TO S
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED MORE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAIN OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PANAMA. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 16N94W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N79W TO CUBA
AT 22N79W. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 24N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W ENHANCING SHOWERS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 200501
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 20 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ABNT20 KNHC 200500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small area of disturbed weather is located about 700 miles south
of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward near 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small area of disturbed weather is located about 700 miles south
of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward near 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small area of disturbed weather is located about 700 miles south
of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward near 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small area of disturbed weather is located about 700 miles south
of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward near 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200340
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N109W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N105W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING AREAS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS
IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N126W THROUGH A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 11N126W TO 08N127W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN
THIS AREA SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EXCEPT
FOR FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AT LOW
LATITUDES S OF 17N...AND CROSS 140W BY MON. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY 15-20 KT IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...MAX COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH 8 TO 9
FT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AS WIND WAVES MIX WITH NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N105W
1009 MB. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N126W 1010
MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND
90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 09N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING NEAR 09N105W. OIL TANKER SHIP BRITISH VENTURE CALL
SIGN 2GYL6 REPORTED 30 KT NW WINDS AND 1009 MB PRESSURE AT 0100
UTC NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT PASS AT 1700 UTC SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA WITH WINDS TO 15-20 KT.

SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO THE
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF
LOW PRES FORMING NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT SUNDAY.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED...BUT OVERALL
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200340
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N109W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N105W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING AREAS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS
IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N126W THROUGH A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 11N126W TO 08N127W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN
THIS AREA SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EXCEPT
FOR FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AT LOW
LATITUDES S OF 17N...AND CROSS 140W BY MON. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY 15-20 KT IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...MAX COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH 8 TO 9
FT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AS WIND WAVES MIX WITH NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N105W
1009 MB. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N126W 1010
MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND
90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 09N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING NEAR 09N105W. OIL TANKER SHIP BRITISH VENTURE CALL
SIGN 2GYL6 REPORTED 30 KT NW WINDS AND 1009 MB PRESSURE AT 0100
UTC NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT PASS AT 1700 UTC SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA WITH WINDS TO 15-20 KT.

SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO THE
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF
LOW PRES FORMING NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT SUNDAY.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED...BUT OVERALL
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200242
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N109W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N105W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING AREAS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS
IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N126W THROUGH A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 11N126W TO 08N127W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN
THIS AREA SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EXCEPT
FOR FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AT LOW
LATITUDES S OF 17N...AND CROSS 140W BY MON. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY 15-20 KT IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...MAX COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH 8 TO 9
FT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AS WIND WAVES MIX WITH NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N105W
1009 MB. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N126W 1010
MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND
90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 09N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING NEAR 09N105W. OIL TANKER SHIP BRITISH VENTURE CALL
SIGN 2GYL6 REPORTED 30 KT NW WINDS AND 1009 MB PRESSURE AT 0100
UTC NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT PASS AT 1700 UTC SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA WITH WINDS TO 15-20 KT.

SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO THE
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF
LOW PRES FORMING NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT SUNDAY.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED...BUT OVERALL
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
MUNDELL


000
ACPN50 PHFO 200143
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT JUL 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BURKE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 200143
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT JUL 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BURKE






000
AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N33W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
09N35W TO 07N35W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW WHICH MAY NECESSITATE REPOSITIONING OF THE LOW AND
THE WAVE SYSTEM AT 00 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS INDICATED FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N54W TO 08N55W AND IS MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N67W TO 10N68W...MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N24W TO 07N44W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N44W AND CONTINUES TO 10N54W TO 09N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG
AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A
PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N22.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-TO UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS
THROUGH 27N90W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NE INTO THE SW N ATLC. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST
TO DIVE SE AND AMPLIFY BY MON TO COVER THE GULF E OF 90W. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT LOCATED THROUGH SW LOUISIANA TO 27.5N95W TO
N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
STATIONARY. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
LINE FROM 28.5N83.5W TO 27N86W. HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N WITH FAIR CONDITIONS S OF 25N.
SURFACE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE GULF AS A RESULT
OF A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF
75W IN THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS. A WEAK MID-
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTED THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDED
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N72W TO THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
68W. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE BASIN
WITH A 1432 ASCAT PASS DEPICTING AN AREA OF 25 KT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 11.5N-14N BETWEEN THE EDGE OF
THE PASS TO 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR
OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT AND SUN WITH AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS
NE FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE OVAL SHAPED MID-TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N56W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW THROUGH 26N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING LESS
DEFINED IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FURTHER EAST...A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER MID-TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
28N27W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N42W. MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N TO THE EQUATOR
WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 35 KT.
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W TO 25N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
73W AND 78W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM
29N-31N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N33W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
09N35W TO 07N35W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW WHICH MAY NECESSITATE REPOSITIONING OF THE LOW AND
THE WAVE SYSTEM AT 00 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS INDICATED FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N54W TO 08N55W AND IS MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N67W TO 10N68W...MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N24W TO 07N44W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N44W AND CONTINUES TO 10N54W TO 09N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG
AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A
PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N22.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-TO UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS
THROUGH 27N90W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NE INTO THE SW N ATLC. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST
TO DIVE SE AND AMPLIFY BY MON TO COVER THE GULF E OF 90W. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT LOCATED THROUGH SW LOUISIANA TO 27.5N95W TO
N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
STATIONARY. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
LINE FROM 28.5N83.5W TO 27N86W. HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N WITH FAIR CONDITIONS S OF 25N.
SURFACE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE GULF AS A RESULT
OF A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF
75W IN THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS. A WEAK MID-
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTED THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDED
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N72W TO THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
68W. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE BASIN
WITH A 1432 ASCAT PASS DEPICTING AN AREA OF 25 KT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 11.5N-14N BETWEEN THE EDGE OF
THE PASS TO 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR
OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT AND SUN WITH AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS
NE FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE OVAL SHAPED MID-TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N56W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW THROUGH 26N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING LESS
DEFINED IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FURTHER EAST...A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER MID-TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
28N27W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N42W. MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N TO THE EQUATOR
WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 35 KT.
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W TO 25N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
73W AND 78W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM
29N-31N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N33W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
09N35W TO 07N35W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW WHICH MAY NECESSITATE REPOSITIONING OF THE LOW AND
THE WAVE SYSTEM AT 00 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS INDICATED FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N54W TO 08N55W AND IS MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N67W TO 10N68W...MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N24W TO 07N44W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N44W AND CONTINUES TO 10N54W TO 09N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG
AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A
PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N22.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-TO UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS
THROUGH 27N90W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NE INTO THE SW N ATLC. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST
TO DIVE SE AND AMPLIFY BY MON TO COVER THE GULF E OF 90W. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT LOCATED THROUGH SW LOUISIANA TO 27.5N95W TO
N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
STATIONARY. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
LINE FROM 28.5N83.5W TO 27N86W. HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N WITH FAIR CONDITIONS S OF 25N.
SURFACE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE GULF AS A RESULT
OF A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF
75W IN THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS. A WEAK MID-
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTED THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDED
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N72W TO THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
68W. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE BASIN
WITH A 1432 ASCAT PASS DEPICTING AN AREA OF 25 KT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 11.5N-14N BETWEEN THE EDGE OF
THE PASS TO 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR
OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT AND SUN WITH AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS
NE FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE OVAL SHAPED MID-TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N56W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW THROUGH 26N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING LESS
DEFINED IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FURTHER EAST...A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER MID-TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
28N27W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N42W. MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N TO THE EQUATOR
WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 35 KT.
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W TO 25N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
73W AND 78W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM
29N-31N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N33W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
09N35W TO 07N35W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW WHICH MAY NECESSITATE REPOSITIONING OF THE LOW AND
THE WAVE SYSTEM AT 00 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS INDICATED FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N54W TO 08N55W AND IS MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N67W TO 10N68W...MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N24W TO 07N44W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N44W AND CONTINUES TO 10N54W TO 09N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG
AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A
PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N22.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-TO UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS
THROUGH 27N90W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NE INTO THE SW N ATLC. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST
TO DIVE SE AND AMPLIFY BY MON TO COVER THE GULF E OF 90W. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT LOCATED THROUGH SW LOUISIANA TO 27.5N95W TO
N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
STATIONARY. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
LINE FROM 28.5N83.5W TO 27N86W. HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N WITH FAIR CONDITIONS S OF 25N.
SURFACE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE GULF AS A RESULT
OF A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF
75W IN THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS. A WEAK MID-
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTED THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDED
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N72W TO THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
68W. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE BASIN
WITH A 1432 ASCAT PASS DEPICTING AN AREA OF 25 KT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 11.5N-14N BETWEEN THE EDGE OF
THE PASS TO 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR
OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT AND SUN WITH AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS
NE FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE OVAL SHAPED MID-TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N56W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW THROUGH 26N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING LESS
DEFINED IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FURTHER EAST...A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER MID-TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
28N27W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N42W. MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N TO THE EQUATOR
WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 35 KT.
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W TO 25N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
73W AND 78W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM
29N-31N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192328
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192328
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192328
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192328
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192327
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 19 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192327
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 19 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192327
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 19 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192327
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 19 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ABNT20 KNHC 192326
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192326
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192326
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192326
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N108W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N105W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING AREAS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N125W THROUGH A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 11N126W TO 08N125W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN
THIS AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR FEW
MODEST SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AT LOW
LATITUDES S OF 15N...AND CROSS 140W BY MON. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY 15-20 KT IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...MAX COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT
AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS WIND WAVES MIX WITH NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N101W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 09N105W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N108W TO LOW
PRES NEAR 11N125W 1011 MB TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 09N105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING NEAR 09N105W. ASCAT PASS AT 1700 UTC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA WITH WINDS TO 15-20 KT.

SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO THE
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF
LOW PRES FORMING NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED...BUT OVERALL
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N108W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N105W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING AREAS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY AS IT MOVES WEST AT LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH TUE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N125W THROUGH A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 11N126W TO 08N125W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN
THIS AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR FEW
MODEST SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AT LOW
LATITUDES S OF 15N...AND CROSS 140W BY MON. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY 15-20 KT IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...MAX COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT
AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS WIND WAVES MIX WITH NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N101W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 09N105W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N108W TO LOW
PRES NEAR 11N125W 1011 MB TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 09N105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING NEAR 09N105W. ASCAT PASS AT 1700 UTC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA WITH WINDS TO 15-20 KT.

SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO THE
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF
LOW PRES FORMING NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED...BUT OVERALL
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT CRITERIA.

$$
MUNDELL



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 192102
TCPPQ1

TYPHOON MATMO (10W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102014
800 AM CHST SUN JUL 20 2014

...TYPHOON MATMO CONTINUING TO THE NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.4N 129.7E

ABOUT  450 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT  475 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOROR
ABOUT  605 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MATMO WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.7
DEGREES EAST.

TYPHOON MATMO IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. MATMO IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. MATMO IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON MATMO.

$$

W.AYDLETT




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 192102
TCPPQ1

TYPHOON MATMO (10W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102014
800 AM CHST SUN JUL 20 2014

...TYPHOON MATMO CONTINUING TO THE NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.4N 129.7E

ABOUT  450 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT  475 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOROR
ABOUT  605 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MATMO WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.7
DEGREES EAST.

TYPHOON MATMO IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. MATMO IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. MATMO IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON MATMO.

$$

W.AYDLETT




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 192102
TCPPQ1

TYPHOON MATMO (10W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102014
800 AM CHST SUN JUL 20 2014

...TYPHOON MATMO CONTINUING TO THE NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.4N 129.7E

ABOUT  450 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT  475 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOROR
ABOUT  605 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MATMO WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.7
DEGREES EAST.

TYPHOON MATMO IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. MATMO IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. MATMO IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON MATMO.

$$

W.AYDLETT




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 192102
TCPPQ1

TYPHOON MATMO (10W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102014
800 AM CHST SUN JUL 20 2014

...TYPHOON MATMO CONTINUING TO THE NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.4N 129.7E

ABOUT  450 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT  475 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOROR
ABOUT  605 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MATMO WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.7
DEGREES EAST.

TYPHOON MATMO IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. MATMO IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. MATMO IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON MATMO.

$$

W.AYDLETT




000
ACPN50 PHFO 191745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$

BURKE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 191745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$

BURKE






000
AXNT20 KNHC 191734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N29W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
09N31W TO 07N31W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH NO CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 580 NM E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N50W TO 08N52W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN PART IN PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N66W TO 10N68W...MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS
WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 08N45W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N45W AND CONTINUES TO 10N52W TO 08N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG
AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 34W AND 45W.
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF THE ITCZ TO 12N BETWEEN
54W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH NE FLORIDA TO 26N90W TO THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF IN TWO DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH SW LOUISIANA TO 28N95.5W TO NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS
N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 95.5W. MINIMAL CLOUDINESS COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF
75W. A WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N73W TO 12N76W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
BASIN. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OVER THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER.

...HISPANIOLA...

INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COVERS MOST OF THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS
NE FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE OVAL SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N56W. IT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 28N62W IN 48 HOURS. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 20N68W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
27N28W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS. MODERATE EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S
OF 15N TO THE EQUATOR WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 35 KT. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
32N76W TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED
THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N29W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
09N31W TO 07N31W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH NO CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 580 NM E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N50W TO 08N52W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN PART IN PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N66W TO 10N68W...MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS
WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 08N45W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N45W AND CONTINUES TO 10N52W TO 08N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG
AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 34W AND 45W.
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF THE ITCZ TO 12N BETWEEN
54W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH NE FLORIDA TO 26N90W TO THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF IN TWO DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH SW LOUISIANA TO 28N95.5W TO NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS
N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 95.5W. MINIMAL CLOUDINESS COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF
75W. A WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N73W TO 12N76W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
BASIN. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OVER THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER.

...HISPANIOLA...

INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COVERS MOST OF THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS
NE FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE OVAL SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N56W. IT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 28N62W IN 48 HOURS. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 20N68W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
27N28W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS. MODERATE EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S
OF 15N TO THE EQUATOR WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 35 KT. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
32N76W TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED
THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 19 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 19 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

NO SE ANTICIPA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191705
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191705
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191704
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191704
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 191535
TCPPQ1

TYPHOON MATMO (10W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102014
200 AM CHST SUN JUL 20 2014

...MATMO NOW A TYPHOON...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.0N 130.3E

ABOUT  400 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT  430 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOROR
ABOUT  555 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
ABOUT  980 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MATMO WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.3
DEGREES EAST.

TYPHOON MATMO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH.
MATMO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. MATMO IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TYPHOON MATMO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.

$$

MCELROY





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191458
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1300 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N105W TO 09N106W MOVING 15 TO 20
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED BETWEEN
AND UPPER RIDGE REACHING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 13N108W...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM A CLOSED LOW NEAR 27N118W TO 14N116W.
ASSOCIATED LIFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAD BEEN ENHANCING AREAS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...BUT THIS
HAS LARGELY PULSED DOWN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS
IT MOVES WEST IN THE LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N124W THROUGH A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 11N124W TO 08N124W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THIS AREA...BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG ROUGH 116W AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
15N133W. THIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR
A FEW MODEST SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LATITUDES S OF 15N...AND CROSS 140W ON
MONDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...SEAS
WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 8 FT AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS INTERACT WITH MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 08N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N125W 1010 MB
TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 89W AND 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 130W
AND 134W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 07 UTC INDICATED AN AREA OF 20 TO
25 KT WINDS N OF A TROUGH ALONG 138W FROM 16N TO 18N IN THE WAKE
OF FORMER T.S. WALI...NOW A WEAK REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE
AREA. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING ACCORDINGLY.

SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW PRES STARTING TO FORM NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA
NEAR 14N91W HAS MIGRATED FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ E OF 110W. A SMALL
UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS INHIBITING CONVECTION SOUTH OF
PANAMA...WHERE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ACTIVE THE PREVIOUS TWO MORNINGS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER CYCLONE N OF THE AREA.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSS THE EQUATOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED. ...BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191458
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1300 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N105W TO 09N106W MOVING 15 TO 20
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED BETWEEN
AND UPPER RIDGE REACHING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 13N108W...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM A CLOSED LOW NEAR 27N118W TO 14N116W.
ASSOCIATED LIFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAD BEEN ENHANCING AREAS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...BUT THIS
HAS LARGELY PULSED DOWN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS
IT MOVES WEST IN THE LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N124W THROUGH A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 11N124W TO 08N124W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THIS AREA...BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG ROUGH 116W AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
15N133W. THIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR
A FEW MODEST SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LATITUDES S OF 15N...AND CROSS 140W ON
MONDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...SEAS
WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 8 FT AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS INTERACT WITH MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 08N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N125W 1010 MB
TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 89W AND 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 130W
AND 134W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 07 UTC INDICATED AN AREA OF 20 TO
25 KT WINDS N OF A TROUGH ALONG 138W FROM 16N TO 18N IN THE WAKE
OF FORMER T.S. WALI...NOW A WEAK REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE
AREA. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING ACCORDINGLY.

SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW PRES STARTING TO FORM NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA
NEAR 14N91W HAS MIGRATED FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ E OF 110W. A SMALL
UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS INHIBITING CONVECTION SOUTH OF
PANAMA...WHERE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ACTIVE THE PREVIOUS TWO MORNINGS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER CYCLONE N OF THE AREA.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSS THE EQUATOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED. ...BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191458
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1300 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N105W TO 09N106W MOVING 15 TO 20
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED BETWEEN
AND UPPER RIDGE REACHING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 13N108W...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM A CLOSED LOW NEAR 27N118W TO 14N116W.
ASSOCIATED LIFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAD BEEN ENHANCING AREAS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...BUT THIS
HAS LARGELY PULSED DOWN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS
IT MOVES WEST IN THE LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N124W THROUGH A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 11N124W TO 08N124W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THIS AREA...BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG ROUGH 116W AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
15N133W. THIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR
A FEW MODEST SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LATITUDES S OF 15N...AND CROSS 140W ON
MONDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...SEAS
WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 8 FT AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS INTERACT WITH MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 08N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N125W 1010 MB
TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 89W AND 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 130W
AND 134W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 07 UTC INDICATED AN AREA OF 20 TO
25 KT WINDS N OF A TROUGH ALONG 138W FROM 16N TO 18N IN THE WAKE
OF FORMER T.S. WALI...NOW A WEAK REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE
AREA. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING ACCORDINGLY.

SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW PRES STARTING TO FORM NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA
NEAR 14N91W HAS MIGRATED FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ E OF 110W. A SMALL
UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS INHIBITING CONVECTION SOUTH OF
PANAMA...WHERE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ACTIVE THE PREVIOUS TWO MORNINGS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER CYCLONE N OF THE AREA.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSS THE EQUATOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED. ...BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191458
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1300 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N105W TO 09N106W MOVING 15 TO 20
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED BETWEEN
AND UPPER RIDGE REACHING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 13N108W...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM A CLOSED LOW NEAR 27N118W TO 14N116W.
ASSOCIATED LIFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAD BEEN ENHANCING AREAS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...BUT THIS
HAS LARGELY PULSED DOWN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS
IT MOVES WEST IN THE LOWER LATITUDES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N124W THROUGH A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 11N124W TO 08N124W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THIS AREA...BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG ROUGH 116W AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
15N133W. THIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR
A FEW MODEST SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LATITUDES S OF 15N...AND CROSS 140W ON
MONDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AREA BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...SEAS
WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 8 FT AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS INTERACT WITH MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 08N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N125W 1010 MB
TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 89W AND 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 130W
AND 134W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 07 UTC INDICATED AN AREA OF 20 TO
25 KT WINDS N OF A TROUGH ALONG 138W FROM 16N TO 18N IN THE WAKE
OF FORMER T.S. WALI...NOW A WEAK REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE
AREA. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING ACCORDINGLY.

SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 25N REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW PRES STARTING TO FORM NEAR 32N127W. LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 125W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA
NEAR 14N91W HAS MIGRATED FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ E OF 110W. A SMALL
UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS INHIBITING CONVECTION SOUTH OF
PANAMA...WHERE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ACTIVE THE PREVIOUS TWO MORNINGS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER CYCLONE N OF THE AREA.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW PULSES
OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSS THE EQUATOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY TUE AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WED. ...BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN

$$
CHRISTENSEN



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