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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230346
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
20-30 KT WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY WED MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY WED EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING.
EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 03.5N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 05.5N86W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ
WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 114W...THEN THE
ITCZ AXIS TURNS WSW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N105W
TO 08N117W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N114W TO 15N110W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N113W TO 18N101W WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO WELL DEFINED BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT
11N117W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION
NEAR 32N130W WITH THE ASSOCIATED TS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF
DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 21N W
OF 110W.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N140W TO 08N116W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF
LINE FROM 12N109W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
17N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE DISSECTING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 16N107W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS 11-13 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL
WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122-126W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 103W...RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE. HOWEVER...NE 20-25 KT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N EARLY TUE NIGHT...AND SPREAD SW TO NEAR
27N117W LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 27N ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW EARLY WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW BY
EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT
SURGE WILL BEGIN LATE THU AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AT 09N91W ON FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230346
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
20-30 KT WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY WED MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY WED EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING.
EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 03.5N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 05.5N86W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ
WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 114W...THEN THE
ITCZ AXIS TURNS WSW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N105W
TO 08N117W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N114W TO 15N110W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N113W TO 18N101W WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO WELL DEFINED BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT
11N117W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION
NEAR 32N130W WITH THE ASSOCIATED TS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF
DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 21N W
OF 110W.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N140W TO 08N116W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF
LINE FROM 12N109W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
17N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE DISSECTING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 16N107W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS 11-13 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL
WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122-126W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 103W...RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE. HOWEVER...NE 20-25 KT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N EARLY TUE NIGHT...AND SPREAD SW TO NEAR
27N117W LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 27N ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW EARLY WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW BY
EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT
SURGE WILL BEGIN LATE THU AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AT 09N91W ON FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230346
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
20-30 KT WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY WED MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY WED EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING.
EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 03.5N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 05.5N86W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ
WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 114W...THEN THE
ITCZ AXIS TURNS WSW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N105W
TO 08N117W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N114W TO 15N110W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N113W TO 18N101W WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO WELL DEFINED BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT
11N117W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION
NEAR 32N130W WITH THE ASSOCIATED TS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF
DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 21N W
OF 110W.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N140W TO 08N116W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF
LINE FROM 12N109W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
17N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE DISSECTING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 16N107W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS 11-13 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL
WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122-126W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 103W...RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE. HOWEVER...NE 20-25 KT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N EARLY TUE NIGHT...AND SPREAD SW TO NEAR
27N117W LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 27N ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW EARLY WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW BY
EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT
SURGE WILL BEGIN LATE THU AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AT 09N91W ON FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WED AT 0000 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
30N91W TO 22N97W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND A RIDGE TO EXTEND TO SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE
NW TO N WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT W OF FRONT. GALE WINDS ON
THE GULF ARE FORECAST THROUGH WED EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS NEAR 07N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 07N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N26W 05N35W TO 03N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-
13N E OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NE OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC ITCZ TO THE GULF S OF A LINE FROM 30N86W TO 25N97W. AT THE
SURFACE...S-SW FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT ADVECTS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN BASIN TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SW ALABAMA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM
FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN GULF WED MORNING ALONG WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM PENSACOLA SW TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL BE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH
WED EVENING SUPPORTED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND A RIDGE THAT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A RIDGE AT
THE UPPER-LEVELS AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 20-
25 KT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WHILE WINDS UP TO 15 KT
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE 20-25 KT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER
SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER BASIN TUE TO WED MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W N ATLC DRIFTS TO THE SW N ATLC...THUS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT
WILL EXIT THE GULF OF MEXICO THU MORNING WITH TAIL EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN CUBA SW TO BELIZE.

HISPANIOLA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL
PREDOMINATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
REACHING THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...HOWEVER
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER JACKSONVILLE AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE CURRENT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THE SW N
ATLC...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N67W
SW TO 23N78W. FARTHER TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
23N62W TO 20N67W WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN...A NARROW AND ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT
WITH BASE NEAR 27N40W SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH TAIL EXTENDING FROM 30N39W SW TO 27N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 26N
BETWEEN 34W-45W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES W AND E OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW BASIN BY
THU MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222152
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WNW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 05.5N89W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN
EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 111W...THEN THE ITCZ AXIS TURNS WSW TO BEYOND
05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF PACIFIC COLOMBIA N OF 05N AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA TO THE E OF 85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N102W TO 08N120W. THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N111W TO 11N110W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 10N112W TO 18N102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO WELL DEFINED BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT
12N120W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION
NEAR 31N128W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N W OF 116W.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N140W TO 09N113W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF
LINE FROM 12N109W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE DISSECTING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N131W TO 17N104W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS...AND 13-15 KT
SEAS PER A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS...ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL
WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 121-124W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS
OF 11-13 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-13N W OF 132W. THE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH THE TRADES DIMINISHING TO
20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE. HOWEVER...NE 20-25 KT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON EARLY NIGHT...AND SPREAD SW TO NEAR
27N117W LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 27N ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW EARLY WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW BY
EARLY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. NORTHERLY 20-30 KT
WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED
MORNING THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE FORCE ON WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY
THU EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT
SURGE WILL BEGIN LATE THU AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AT 09N91W ON FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222152
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WNW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 05.5N89W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN
EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 111W...THEN THE ITCZ AXIS TURNS WSW TO BEYOND
05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF PACIFIC COLOMBIA N OF 05N AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA TO THE E OF 85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N102W TO 08N120W. THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N111W TO 11N110W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 10N112W TO 18N102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO WELL DEFINED BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT
12N120W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION
NEAR 31N128W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N W OF 116W.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N140W TO 09N113W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF
LINE FROM 12N109W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE DISSECTING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N131W TO 17N104W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS...AND 13-15 KT
SEAS PER A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS...ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL
WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 121-124W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS
OF 11-13 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-13N W OF 132W. THE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH THE TRADES DIMINISHING TO
20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE. HOWEVER...NE 20-25 KT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON EARLY NIGHT...AND SPREAD SW TO NEAR
27N117W LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 27N ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW EARLY WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW BY
EARLY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. NORTHERLY 20-30 KT
WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED
MORNING THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE FORCE ON WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY
THU EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT
SURGE WILL BEGIN LATE THU AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AT 09N91W ON FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT...THAT CURRENTLY IS ORGANIZING ITSELF IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
GULF OF MEXICO COAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE 42-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
30N92W TO 22N97W.  GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
8 FEET WILL COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO  8N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N14W TO
8N27W 5N34W 6N40W AND 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM
60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING IN THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THIS TROUGH IS ORGANIZING ITSELF
AND IT EVENTUALLY WILL BE SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GALE-
FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.

CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N78W...TO GEORGIA
NEAR 31N81W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W...IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS...ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST ALONG 95W FROM
29N TO 30N. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
ARE IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 26N80W 27N70W BEYOND 32N60W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KVAF...KGBK...
KATP...AND KSPR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG COVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS...INTO LOUISIANA...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...ARE IN
MISSISSIPPI AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FROM PERRY FLORIDA
WESTWARD. THE WARM FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
CONTINUE FROM BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA TO THE TAMPA-SAINT PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND TO PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 73W AT THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...IT PASSES ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND
BEYOND 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.  MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 22N81W IN CUBA...TO 18N88W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...IN
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...AND FROM 80W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.11 IN TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N/5N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE PASSES DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AFTER THAT TIME. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA AND/OR NEAR HISPANIOLA...FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
28N37W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N37W TO 31N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 33W AND 48W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 32N61W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N61W 22N63W 19N64W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
BEYOND 32N70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W
AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N17W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO
26N35W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT...THAT CURRENTLY IS ORGANIZING ITSELF IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
GULF OF MEXICO COAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE 42-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
30N92W TO 22N97W.  GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
8 FEET WILL COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO  8N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N14W TO
8N27W 5N34W 6N40W AND 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM
60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING IN THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THIS TROUGH IS ORGANIZING ITSELF
AND IT EVENTUALLY WILL BE SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GALE-
FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.

CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N78W...TO GEORGIA
NEAR 31N81W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W...IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS...ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST ALONG 95W FROM
29N TO 30N. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
ARE IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 26N80W 27N70W BEYOND 32N60W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KVAF...KGBK...
KATP...AND KSPR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG COVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS...INTO LOUISIANA...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...ARE IN
MISSISSIPPI AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FROM PERRY FLORIDA
WESTWARD. THE WARM FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
CONTINUE FROM BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA TO THE TAMPA-SAINT PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND TO PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 73W AT THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...IT PASSES ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND
BEYOND 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.  MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 22N81W IN CUBA...TO 18N88W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...IN
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...AND FROM 80W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.11 IN TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N/5N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE PASSES DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AFTER THAT TIME. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA AND/OR NEAR HISPANIOLA...FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
28N37W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N37W TO 31N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 33W AND 48W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 32N61W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N61W 22N63W 19N64W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
BEYOND 32N70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W
AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N17W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO
26N35W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N91W TO
07N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 08N112W TO 06N125W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT
30.5N129W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF ABOUT 111W. TO ITS E...A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SW FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO JUST S OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TO 15N119W. A RATHER PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP TROPICS ENE THROUGH
19N140W...AND DIVES SEWD TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD ALONG THIS JET STREAM. THIS
MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR NE AS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N...
AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG...AND WITHIN
10 DEG S OF THE JETSTREAM BRANCH W OF 120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
IS PREVALENT N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM. THIS IS
MAINTAINING DRY AND SINKING AIR OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF
THE AREA NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
30N127W TO 15N103W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 111W FROM 05N TO 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND
111W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL OVER THE
WATERS FROM 07-18N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM 28N TO 29N ON WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE
MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 25N BY EARLY
WED...WITH 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS
RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE WED EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. WILL ADJUST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N91W TO
07N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 08N112W TO 06N125W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT
30.5N129W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF ABOUT 111W. TO ITS E...A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SW FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO JUST S OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TO 15N119W. A RATHER PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP TROPICS ENE THROUGH
19N140W...AND DIVES SEWD TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD ALONG THIS JET STREAM. THIS
MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR NE AS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N...
AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG...AND WITHIN
10 DEG S OF THE JETSTREAM BRANCH W OF 120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
IS PREVALENT N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM. THIS IS
MAINTAINING DRY AND SINKING AIR OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF
THE AREA NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
30N127W TO 15N103W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 111W FROM 05N TO 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND
111W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL OVER THE
WATERS FROM 07-18N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM 28N TO 29N ON WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE
MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 25N BY EARLY
WED...WITH 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS
RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE WED EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. WILL ADJUST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N91W TO
07N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 08N112W TO 06N125W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT
30.5N129W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF ABOUT 111W. TO ITS E...A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SW FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO JUST S OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TO 15N119W. A RATHER PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP TROPICS ENE THROUGH
19N140W...AND DIVES SEWD TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD ALONG THIS JET STREAM. THIS
MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR NE AS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N...
AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG...AND WITHIN
10 DEG S OF THE JETSTREAM BRANCH W OF 120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
IS PREVALENT N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM. THIS IS
MAINTAINING DRY AND SINKING AIR OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF
THE AREA NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
30N127W TO 15N103W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 111W FROM 05N TO 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND
111W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL OVER THE
WATERS FROM 07-18N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM 28N TO 29N ON WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE
MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 25N BY EARLY
WED...WITH 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS
RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE WED EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. WILL ADJUST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N91W TO
07N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 08N112W TO 06N125W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT
30.5N129W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF ABOUT 111W. TO ITS E...A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SW FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO JUST S OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TO 15N119W. A RATHER PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP TROPICS ENE THROUGH
19N140W...AND DIVES SEWD TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD ALONG THIS JET STREAM. THIS
MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR NE AS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N...
AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG...AND WITHIN
10 DEG S OF THE JETSTREAM BRANCH W OF 120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
IS PREVALENT N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM. THIS IS
MAINTAINING DRY AND SINKING AIR OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF
THE AREA NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
30N127W TO 15N103W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 111W FROM 05N TO 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND
111W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL OVER THE
WATERS FROM 07-18N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM 28N TO 29N ON WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE
MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 25N BY EARLY
WED...WITH 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS
RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE WED EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. WILL ADJUST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N91W TO
07N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 08N112W TO 06N125W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT
30.5N129W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF ABOUT 111W. TO ITS E...A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SW FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO JUST S OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TO 15N119W. A RATHER PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP TROPICS ENE THROUGH
19N140W...AND DIVES SEWD TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD ALONG THIS JET STREAM. THIS
MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR NE AS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N...
AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG...AND WITHIN
10 DEG S OF THE JETSTREAM BRANCH W OF 120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
IS PREVALENT N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM. THIS IS
MAINTAINING DRY AND SINKING AIR OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF
THE AREA NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
30N127W TO 15N103W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 111W FROM 05N TO 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND
111W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL OVER THE
WATERS FROM 07-18N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM 28N TO 29N ON WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE
MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 25N BY EARLY
WED...WITH 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS
RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE WED EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. WILL ADJUST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N91W TO
07N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 08N112W TO 06N125W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT
30.5N129W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF ABOUT 111W. TO ITS E...A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SW FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO JUST S OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TO 15N119W. A RATHER PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP TROPICS ENE THROUGH
19N140W...AND DIVES SEWD TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD ALONG THIS JET STREAM. THIS
MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR NE AS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N...
AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG...AND WITHIN
10 DEG S OF THE JETSTREAM BRANCH W OF 120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
IS PREVALENT N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM. THIS IS
MAINTAINING DRY AND SINKING AIR OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF
THE AREA NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
30N127W TO 15N103W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 111W FROM 05N TO 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND
111W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL OVER THE
WATERS FROM 07-18N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM 28N TO 29N ON WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE
MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 25N BY EARLY
WED...WITH 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS
RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE WED EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. WILL ADJUST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N91W TO
07N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 08N112W TO 06N125W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT
30.5N129W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF ABOUT 111W. TO ITS E...A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SW FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO JUST S OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TO 15N119W. A RATHER PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP TROPICS ENE THROUGH
19N140W...AND DIVES SEWD TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD ALONG THIS JET STREAM. THIS
MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR NE AS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N...
AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG...AND WITHIN
10 DEG S OF THE JETSTREAM BRANCH W OF 120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
IS PREVALENT N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM. THIS IS
MAINTAINING DRY AND SINKING AIR OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF
THE AREA NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
30N127W TO 15N103W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 111W FROM 05N TO 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND
111W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL OVER THE
WATERS FROM 07-18N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM 28N TO 29N ON WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE
MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 25N BY EARLY
WED...WITH 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS
RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE WED EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. WILL ADJUST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N91W TO
07N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 08N112W TO 06N125W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT
30.5N129W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF ABOUT 111W. TO ITS E...A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SW FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO JUST S OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TO 15N119W. A RATHER PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP TROPICS ENE THROUGH
19N140W...AND DIVES SEWD TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD ALONG THIS JET STREAM. THIS
MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR NE AS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N...
AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG...AND WITHIN
10 DEG S OF THE JETSTREAM BRANCH W OF 120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
IS PREVALENT N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM. THIS IS
MAINTAINING DRY AND SINKING AIR OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF
THE AREA NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
30N127W TO 15N103W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 111W FROM 05N TO 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND
111W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL OVER THE
WATERS FROM 07-18N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM 28N TO 29N ON WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE
MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 25N BY EARLY
WED...WITH 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS
RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE WED EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. WILL ADJUST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO
APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE AND EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF
TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO TUE EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR
VERACRUZ MEXICO WED MORNING...FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING AND WILL BE EAST OF AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W
TO 06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO
06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N...AND 45
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO
A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 24N96W. THIS LOW PRES IS
ANALYZED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 20N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN A BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SEEN S OF THE
FRONT AND E OF 87W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY
ACROSS THE GULF REGION WHILE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO 23N87.5W.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CURRENTLY ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON TUE. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT
CROSSES EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF REGION AND FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...OVER JAMAICA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
83W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...EXTEND FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU...THEN STALL FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT. STRONG NW TO N
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W DOMINATES THE WEST
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 80W.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND WESTERN CUBA WHERE A SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0600 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND
FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
REGION IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE
AREA TODAY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS FARTHER E CENTERED JUST N OF
BERMUDA. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD REACHING A
POSITION NEAR 32N61W BY THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM
EXTENDS A RIDGE ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOTED UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND TOWARD FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC STRETCHING FROM 31N38W TO 26N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N15W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW TO NEAR 26N36. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS
FROM THE GUYANAS ALL THE WAY E-NE TO WESTERN AFRICA ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SW AND W WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR EAST
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE ATLANTIC REGION WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
31N77W TO W CUBA THU...FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU
NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO
APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE AND EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF
TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO TUE EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR
VERACRUZ MEXICO WED MORNING...FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING AND WILL BE EAST OF AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W
TO 06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO
06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N...AND 45
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO
A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 24N96W. THIS LOW PRES IS
ANALYZED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 20N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN A BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SEEN S OF THE
FRONT AND E OF 87W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY
ACROSS THE GULF REGION WHILE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO 23N87.5W.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CURRENTLY ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON TUE. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT
CROSSES EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF REGION AND FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...OVER JAMAICA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
83W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...EXTEND FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU...THEN STALL FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT. STRONG NW TO N
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W DOMINATES THE WEST
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 80W.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND WESTERN CUBA WHERE A SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0600 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND
FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
REGION IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE
AREA TODAY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS FARTHER E CENTERED JUST N OF
BERMUDA. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD REACHING A
POSITION NEAR 32N61W BY THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM
EXTENDS A RIDGE ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOTED UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND TOWARD FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC STRETCHING FROM 31N38W TO 26N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N15W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW TO NEAR 26N36. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS
FROM THE GUYANAS ALL THE WAY E-NE TO WESTERN AFRICA ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SW AND W WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR EAST
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE ATLANTIC REGION WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
31N77W TO W CUBA THU...FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU
NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO
APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE AND EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF
TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO TUE EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR
VERACRUZ MEXICO WED MORNING...FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING AND WILL BE EAST OF AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W
TO 06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO
06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N...AND 45
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO
A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 24N96W. THIS LOW PRES IS
ANALYZED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 20N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN A BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SEEN S OF THE
FRONT AND E OF 87W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY
ACROSS THE GULF REGION WHILE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO 23N87.5W.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CURRENTLY ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON TUE. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT
CROSSES EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF REGION AND FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...OVER JAMAICA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
83W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...EXTEND FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU...THEN STALL FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT. STRONG NW TO N
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W DOMINATES THE WEST
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 80W.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND WESTERN CUBA WHERE A SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0600 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND
FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
REGION IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE
AREA TODAY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS FARTHER E CENTERED JUST N OF
BERMUDA. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD REACHING A
POSITION NEAR 32N61W BY THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM
EXTENDS A RIDGE ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOTED UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND TOWARD FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC STRETCHING FROM 31N38W TO 26N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N15W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW TO NEAR 26N36. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS
FROM THE GUYANAS ALL THE WAY E-NE TO WESTERN AFRICA ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SW AND W WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR EAST
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE ATLANTIC REGION WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
31N77W TO W CUBA THU...FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU
NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO
APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE AND EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF
TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO TUE EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR
VERACRUZ MEXICO WED MORNING...FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING AND WILL BE EAST OF AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W
TO 06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO
06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N...AND 45
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO
A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 24N96W. THIS LOW PRES IS
ANALYZED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 20N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN A BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SEEN S OF THE
FRONT AND E OF 87W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY
ACROSS THE GULF REGION WHILE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO 23N87.5W.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CURRENTLY ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON TUE. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT
CROSSES EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF REGION AND FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...OVER JAMAICA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
83W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...EXTEND FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU...THEN STALL FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT. STRONG NW TO N
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W DOMINATES THE WEST
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 80W.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND WESTERN CUBA WHERE A SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0600 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND
FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
REGION IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE
AREA TODAY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS FARTHER E CENTERED JUST N OF
BERMUDA. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD REACHING A
POSITION NEAR 32N61W BY THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM
EXTENDS A RIDGE ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOTED UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND TOWARD FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC STRETCHING FROM 31N38W TO 26N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N15W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW TO NEAR 26N36. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS
FROM THE GUYANAS ALL THE WAY E-NE TO WESTERN AFRICA ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SW AND W WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR EAST
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE ATLANTIC REGION WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
31N77W TO W CUBA THU...FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU
NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220929
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 08N83W TO
06N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 08N109W THEN
RESUMES FROM 08N112W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 06N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W...AND ALSO FROM 06N
TO 08N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA
NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 30N127W TO
15N103W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N109W TO 06N111W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W
AND 112W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 11-14 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-18N W
OF 127W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25
KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS BY 24 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT COMBINED
SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE CURRENT
6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT (MON NIGHT). THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH
THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
UP TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT
AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU EARLY THU. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THU MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN THE GULF N OF
29N BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF LATE
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N BEHIND IT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT...INCREASING TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY
AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO STRONG GALE WED
EVENING...FURTHER INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N94W LATE FRI.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220929
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 08N83W TO
06N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 08N109W THEN
RESUMES FROM 08N112W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 06N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W...AND ALSO FROM 06N
TO 08N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA
NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 30N127W TO
15N103W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N109W TO 06N111W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W
AND 112W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 11-14 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-18N W
OF 127W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25
KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS BY 24 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT COMBINED
SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE CURRENT
6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT (MON NIGHT). THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH
THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
UP TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT
AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU EARLY THU. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THU MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN THE GULF N OF
29N BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF LATE
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N BEHIND IT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT...INCREASING TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY
AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO STRONG GALE WED
EVENING...FURTHER INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N94W LATE FRI.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER
THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...AND MOVE EAST OF AREA WED
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT
AND WED. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO
06N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N30W TO 05N40W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 22W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0000 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO
NEAR JALAPA MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA AND
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE
DATA W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE SEEN S OF THE FRONT AND E OF 87W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TODAY ACROSS THE GULF REGION WHILE A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 27N85W
TO 22N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF ON TUE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF
80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W DOMINATES THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE A ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN
CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0000 UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N79W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST REGION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF
THE AREA TODAY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS FARTHER E NEAR 30N62W AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STRETCHING FROM 31N39W TO 27N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N16W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW TO NEAR 26N37W. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W. LOOKING AHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR EAST FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND
WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC REGION
WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N77W TO W CUBA THU...FROM
31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL
CUBA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER
THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...AND MOVE EAST OF AREA WED
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT
AND WED. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO
06N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N30W TO 05N40W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 22W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0000 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO
NEAR JALAPA MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA AND
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE
DATA W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE SEEN S OF THE FRONT AND E OF 87W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TODAY ACROSS THE GULF REGION WHILE A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 27N85W
TO 22N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF ON TUE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF
80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W DOMINATES THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE A ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN
CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0000 UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N79W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST REGION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF
THE AREA TODAY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS FARTHER E NEAR 30N62W AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STRETCHING FROM 31N39W TO 27N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N16W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW TO NEAR 26N37W. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W. LOOKING AHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR EAST FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND
WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC REGION
WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N77W TO W CUBA THU...FROM
31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL
CUBA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220351
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH AT 07N111W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO
06N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N107W TO
07N120W AND FROM 07N131W TO 09N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 05N111W TO 12N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N111W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 15N118W.
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS NW MEXICO. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE
IS NOTED FURTHER N AND NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 116-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N140W TO
10N120W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N112W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE AND
FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 17N107W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118-126W THROUGH TUE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH
AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY
RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT
AND MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON
MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 7-10 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT ON MON AND MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220351
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH AT 07N111W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO
06N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N107W TO
07N120W AND FROM 07N131W TO 09N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 05N111W TO 12N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N111W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 15N118W.
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS NW MEXICO. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE
IS NOTED FURTHER N AND NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 116-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N140W TO
10N120W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N112W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE AND
FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 17N107W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118-126W THROUGH TUE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH
AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY
RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT
AND MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON
MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 7-10 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT ON MON AND MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220351
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH AT 07N111W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO
06N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N107W TO
07N120W AND FROM 07N131W TO 09N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 05N111W TO 12N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N111W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 15N118W.
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS NW MEXICO. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE
IS NOTED FURTHER N AND NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 116-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N140W TO
10N120W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N112W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE AND
FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 17N107W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118-126W THROUGH TUE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH
AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY
RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT
AND MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON
MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 7-10 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT ON MON AND MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220351
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH AT 07N111W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO
06N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N107W TO
07N120W AND FROM 07N131W TO 09N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 05N111W TO 12N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N111W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 15N118W.
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS NW MEXICO. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE
IS NOTED FURTHER N AND NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 116-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N140W TO
10N120W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N112W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE AND
FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 17N107W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118-126W THROUGH TUE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH
AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY
RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT
AND MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON
MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 7-10 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT ON MON AND MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220351
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH AT 07N111W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO
06N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N107W TO
07N120W AND FROM 07N131W TO 09N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 05N111W TO 12N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N111W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 15N118W.
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS NW MEXICO. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE
IS NOTED FURTHER N AND NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 116-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N140W TO
10N120W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N112W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE AND
FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 17N107W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118-126W THROUGH TUE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH
AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY
RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT
AND MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON
MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 7-10 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT ON MON AND MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220351
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH AT 07N111W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO
06N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N107W TO
07N120W AND FROM 07N131W TO 09N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 05N111W TO 12N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N111W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 15N118W.
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS NW MEXICO. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE
IS NOTED FURTHER N AND NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 116-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N140W TO
10N120W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N112W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE AND
FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 17N107W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118-126W THROUGH TUE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH
AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY
RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT
AND MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON
MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 7-10 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT ON MON AND MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 212337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N09W TO
06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO 05N40W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM DAYTONA
BEACH FLORIDA TO W OF OCALA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N97W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 10 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND N OF FRONT. 10 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE
GULF FROM 27N85W TO 22N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 80W IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE GULF.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO DISSIPATE AND SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO BE THROUGHOUT THE GULF. RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER NE FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 65W-75W...AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER JAMAICA
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND OVER W CUBA. ALSO EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SE OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM
THE LOW TO 31N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 32N66W. THE TAIL END OF
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N39W TO 28N43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N18W WITH SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOVE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS ALSO CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N18W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST OFF
THE FLORIDA NE COAST ...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 212337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N09W TO
06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO 05N40W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM DAYTONA
BEACH FLORIDA TO W OF OCALA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N97W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 10 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND N OF FRONT. 10 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE
GULF FROM 27N85W TO 22N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 80W IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE GULF.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO DISSIPATE AND SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO BE THROUGHOUT THE GULF. RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER NE FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 65W-75W...AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER JAMAICA
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND OVER W CUBA. ALSO EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SE OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM
THE LOW TO 31N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 32N66W. THE TAIL END OF
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N39W TO 28N43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N18W WITH SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOVE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS ALSO CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N18W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST OFF
THE FLORIDA NE COAST ...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 05N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N86W...THEN SW AGAIN TO
06N92W TO 07N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 08N109W WITH
THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 04-09N TO THE E OF 83W AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N110W TO 07N120W TO 09N140W. THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N110W TO 13N109W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N112W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N98W ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO TO BASE AT 15N122W. EVAPORATING UPPER MOISTURE IS
SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED S ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N E OF 125W...AND WILL CONTINUE S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 126-167W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N140W TO 10N117W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N114W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE
AND FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 34N133W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N105W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 09-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT AND MON
WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON TUE. THE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119-125W THROUGH TUE MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
HAS SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 5-8 FT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON MON AND MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT EARLY WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 05N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N86W...THEN SW AGAIN TO
06N92W TO 07N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 08N109W WITH
THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 04-09N TO THE E OF 83W AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N110W TO 07N120W TO 09N140W. THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N110W TO 13N109W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N112W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N98W ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO TO BASE AT 15N122W. EVAPORATING UPPER MOISTURE IS
SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED S ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N E OF 125W...AND WILL CONTINUE S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 126-167W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N140W TO 10N117W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N114W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE
AND FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 34N133W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N105W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 09-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT AND MON
WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON TUE. THE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119-125W THROUGH TUE MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
HAS SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 5-8 FT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON MON AND MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT EARLY WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 05N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N86W...THEN SW AGAIN TO
06N92W TO 07N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 08N109W WITH
THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 04-09N TO THE E OF 83W AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N110W TO 07N120W TO 09N140W. THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N110W TO 13N109W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N112W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N98W ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO TO BASE AT 15N122W. EVAPORATING UPPER MOISTURE IS
SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED S ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N E OF 125W...AND WILL CONTINUE S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 126-167W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N140W TO 10N117W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N114W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE
AND FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 34N133W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N105W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 09-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT AND MON
WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON TUE. THE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119-125W THROUGH TUE MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
HAS SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 5-8 FT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON MON AND MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT EARLY WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 05N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N86W...THEN SW AGAIN TO
06N92W TO 07N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 08N109W WITH
THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 04-09N TO THE E OF 83W AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N110W TO 07N120W TO 09N140W. THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N110W TO 13N109W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N112W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N98W ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO TO BASE AT 15N122W. EVAPORATING UPPER MOISTURE IS
SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED S ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N E OF 125W...AND WILL CONTINUE S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 126-167W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N140W TO 10N117W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N114W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE
AND FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 34N133W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N105W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 09-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT AND MON
WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON TUE. THE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119-125W THROUGH TUE MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
HAS SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 5-8 FT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON MON AND MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT EARLY WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 05N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N86W...THEN SW AGAIN TO
06N92W TO 07N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 08N109W WITH
THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 04-09N TO THE E OF 83W AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N110W TO 07N120W TO 09N140W. THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N110W TO 13N109W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N112W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N98W ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO TO BASE AT 15N122W. EVAPORATING UPPER MOISTURE IS
SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED S ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N E OF 125W...AND WILL CONTINUE S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 126-167W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N140W TO 10N117W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N114W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE
AND FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 34N133W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N105W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 09-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT AND MON
WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON TUE. THE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119-125W THROUGH TUE MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
HAS SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 5-8 FT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON MON AND MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT EARLY WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 05N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N86W...THEN SW AGAIN TO
06N92W TO 07N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 08N109W WITH
THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 04-09N TO THE E OF 83W AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N110W TO 07N120W TO 09N140W. THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N110W TO 13N109W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N112W TO 16N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N98W ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO TO BASE AT 15N122W. EVAPORATING UPPER MOISTURE IS
SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED S ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N E OF 125W...AND WILL CONTINUE S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 126-167W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N140W TO 10N117W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N114W TO OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE
AND FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 34N133W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N105W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 09-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING
AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT AND MON
WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON TUE. THE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119-125W THROUGH TUE MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
HAS SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W...RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 5-8 FT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON MON AND MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT
THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT EARLY WED MORNING...
THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON
THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211713
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO
06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W 05N40W
TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 04N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED N OF THE
MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ITCZ TO
THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM 28N82W TO 25N90W TO 18N95W. AHEAD OF
THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE GULF...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N85W SW TO THE
GULF OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N92W TO 20N96W. THE WIND PATTERN ALOFT
ALLOWS FOR A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 26N86W TO 21N87W SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 160 NM E
OF ITS AXIS FROM 21N-25N. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WIND OF 5-15 KT
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...A RIDGE AT THE UPPER-LEVELS AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 18N82W TO 10N82W ENHANCE SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF 18N WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA
COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT TRADES OF 5-10 KT
ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE TRADES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ON THE 20-25 KT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER SPREADING
WESTWARD TO THE REMAINDER BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SW N ATLC STRENGTHENS FROM MON TO TUE.

HISPANIOLA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE EASTERN BASIN CARIBBEAN WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE SW N ATLC
WATERS FROM 29N81W TO 30N76W. THE CURRENT OF UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THIS PORTION OF THE
ATLC...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 70W. OVER
THE CENTRAL BASIN...A NARROW AND ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT WITH
BASE NEAR 25N36W SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 29N41W SW TO 23N50W.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N38W TO
23N38W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN BASIN N OF 22N. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BY TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211713
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO
06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W 05N40W
TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 04N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED N OF THE
MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ITCZ TO
THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM 28N82W TO 25N90W TO 18N95W. AHEAD OF
THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE GULF...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N85W SW TO THE
GULF OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N92W TO 20N96W. THE WIND PATTERN ALOFT
ALLOWS FOR A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 26N86W TO 21N87W SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 160 NM E
OF ITS AXIS FROM 21N-25N. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WIND OF 5-15 KT
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...A RIDGE AT THE UPPER-LEVELS AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 18N82W TO 10N82W ENHANCE SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF 18N WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA
COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT TRADES OF 5-10 KT
ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE TRADES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ON THE 20-25 KT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER SPREADING
WESTWARD TO THE REMAINDER BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SW N ATLC STRENGTHENS FROM MON TO TUE.

HISPANIOLA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE EASTERN BASIN CARIBBEAN WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE SW N ATLC
WATERS FROM 29N81W TO 30N76W. THE CURRENT OF UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THIS PORTION OF THE
ATLC...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 70W. OVER
THE CENTRAL BASIN...A NARROW AND ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT WITH
BASE NEAR 25N36W SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 29N41W SW TO 23N50W.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N38W TO
23N38W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN BASIN N OF 22N. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BY TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211713
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO
06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W 05N40W
TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 04N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED N OF THE
MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ITCZ TO
THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM 28N82W TO 25N90W TO 18N95W. AHEAD OF
THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE GULF...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N85W SW TO THE
GULF OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N92W TO 20N96W. THE WIND PATTERN ALOFT
ALLOWS FOR A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 26N86W TO 21N87W SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 160 NM E
OF ITS AXIS FROM 21N-25N. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WIND OF 5-15 KT
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...A RIDGE AT THE UPPER-LEVELS AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 18N82W TO 10N82W ENHANCE SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF 18N WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA
COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT TRADES OF 5-10 KT
ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE TRADES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ON THE 20-25 KT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER SPREADING
WESTWARD TO THE REMAINDER BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SW N ATLC STRENGTHENS FROM MON TO TUE.

HISPANIOLA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE EASTERN BASIN CARIBBEAN WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE SW N ATLC
WATERS FROM 29N81W TO 30N76W. THE CURRENT OF UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THIS PORTION OF THE
ATLC...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 70W. OVER
THE CENTRAL BASIN...A NARROW AND ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT WITH
BASE NEAR 25N36W SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 29N41W SW TO 23N50W.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N38W TO
23N38W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN BASIN N OF 22N. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BY TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211713
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO
06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W 05N40W
TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 04N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED N OF THE
MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ITCZ TO
THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM 28N82W TO 25N90W TO 18N95W. AHEAD OF
THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE GULF...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N85W SW TO THE
GULF OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N92W TO 20N96W. THE WIND PATTERN ALOFT
ALLOWS FOR A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 26N86W TO 21N87W SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 160 NM E
OF ITS AXIS FROM 21N-25N. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WIND OF 5-15 KT
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...A RIDGE AT THE UPPER-LEVELS AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 18N82W TO 10N82W ENHANCE SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF 18N WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA
COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT TRADES OF 5-10 KT
ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE TRADES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ON THE 20-25 KT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER SPREADING
WESTWARD TO THE REMAINDER BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SW N ATLC STRENGTHENS FROM MON TO TUE.

HISPANIOLA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE EASTERN BASIN CARIBBEAN WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE SW N ATLC
WATERS FROM 29N81W TO 30N76W. THE CURRENT OF UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THIS PORTION OF THE
ATLC...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 70W. OVER
THE CENTRAL BASIN...A NARROW AND ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT WITH
BASE NEAR 25N36W SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 29N41W SW TO 23N50W.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N38W TO
23N38W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN BASIN N OF 22N. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BY TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211624
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 07N84W TO 05N91W
TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 08N102W TO
08N106W TO 06N110W TO 06N120W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ ALONG 13N106W 09N107W 04N108W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N79W 06N80W 04N81W AND 4N110W 5N112W
6N113W...FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...FROM 06N TO 07N
BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND
140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 112W RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 28N120W.
THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 117W
EASTWARD...WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
THE SWELLS WILL THEN SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND
MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 33N132W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N110W. NORTHEAST 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING
WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE ECMWF
MODEL...THE UKMET MODEL...AND THE GFS MODEL MAINTAIN AT LEAST 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE AREA FROM
07N TO 22N FROM 120W WESTWARD...WITH SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX
GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER 48 HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMBINED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LATEST RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS CONSISTED OF
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS ONLY DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON OF TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY FRIDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE UKMET AND GFS SHOW NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS ONLY DURING THE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS FOR THE 48
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211624
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 07N84W TO 05N91W
TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 08N102W TO
08N106W TO 06N110W TO 06N120W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ ALONG 13N106W 09N107W 04N108W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N79W 06N80W 04N81W AND 4N110W 5N112W
6N113W...FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...FROM 06N TO 07N
BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND
140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 112W RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 28N120W.
THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 117W
EASTWARD...WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
THE SWELLS WILL THEN SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND
MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 33N132W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N110W. NORTHEAST 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING
WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE ECMWF
MODEL...THE UKMET MODEL...AND THE GFS MODEL MAINTAIN AT LEAST 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE AREA FROM
07N TO 22N FROM 120W WESTWARD...WITH SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX
GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER 48 HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMBINED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LATEST RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS CONSISTED OF
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS ONLY DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON OF TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY FRIDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE UKMET AND GFS SHOW NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS ONLY DURING THE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS FOR THE 48
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211540 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 07N84W TO 05N91W
TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 08N102W TO
08N106W TO 06N110W TO 06N120W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ ALONG 13N106W 09N107W 04N108W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N79W 06N80W 04N81W AND 4N110W 5N112W
6N113W...FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...FROM 06N TO 07N
BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND
140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 112W RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 28N120W.
THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 117W
EASTWARD...WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
THE SWELLS WILL THEN SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND
MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 33N132W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N110W. NORTHEAST 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING
WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE ECMWF
MODEL...THE UKMET MODEL...AND THE GFS MODEL MAINTAIN AT LEAST 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE AREA FROM
07N TO 22N FROM 120W WESTWARD...WITH SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX
GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER 48 HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMBINED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LATEST RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS CONSISTED OF
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS ONLY DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON OF TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY FRIDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE UKMET AND GFS SHOW NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS ONLY DURING THE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS FOR THE 48
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211540 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 07N84W TO 05N91W
TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 08N102W TO
08N106W TO 06N110W TO 06N120W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ ALONG 13N106W 09N107W 04N108W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N79W 06N80W 04N81W AND 4N110W 5N112W
6N113W...FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...FROM 06N TO 07N
BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND
140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 112W RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 28N120W.
THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 117W
EASTWARD...WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
THE SWELLS WILL THEN SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND
MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 33N132W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N110W. NORTHEAST 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING
WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE ECMWF
MODEL...THE UKMET MODEL...AND THE GFS MODEL MAINTAIN AT LEAST 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE AREA FROM
07N TO 22N FROM 120W WESTWARD...WITH SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX
GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER 48 HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMBINED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LATEST RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS CONSISTED OF
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS ONLY DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON OF TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY FRIDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE UKMET AND GFS SHOW NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS ONLY DURING THE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS FOR THE 48
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211540 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 07N84W TO 05N91W
TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 08N102W TO
08N106W TO 06N110W TO 06N120W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ ALONG 13N106W 09N107W 04N108W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N79W 06N80W 04N81W AND 4N110W 5N112W
6N113W...FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...FROM 06N TO 07N
BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND
140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 112W RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 28N120W.
THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 117W
EASTWARD...WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
THE SWELLS WILL THEN SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND
MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 33N132W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N110W. NORTHEAST 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING
WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE ECMWF
MODEL...THE UKMET MODEL...AND THE GFS MODEL MAINTAIN AT LEAST 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE AREA FROM
07N TO 22N FROM 120W WESTWARD...WITH SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX
GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER 48 HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMBINED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LATEST RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS CONSISTED OF
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS ONLY DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON OF TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY FRIDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE UKMET AND GFS SHOW NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS ONLY DURING THE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS FOR THE 48
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211540 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 07N84W TO 05N91W
TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 08N102W TO
08N106W TO 06N110W TO 06N120W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ ALONG 13N106W 09N107W 04N108W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N79W 06N80W 04N81W AND 4N110W 5N112W
6N113W...FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...FROM 06N TO 07N
BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND
140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 112W RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 28N120W.
THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 117W
EASTWARD...WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
THE SWELLS WILL THEN SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND
MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 33N132W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N110W. NORTHEAST 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING
WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE ECMWF
MODEL...THE UKMET MODEL...AND THE GFS MODEL MAINTAIN AT LEAST 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE AREA FROM
07N TO 22N FROM 120W WESTWARD...WITH SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX
GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER 48 HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMBINED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LATEST RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS CONSISTED OF
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS ONLY DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON OF TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY FRIDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE UKMET AND GFS SHOW NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS ONLY DURING THE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS FOR THE 48
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
07N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 18W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A NORTHERLY MODERATE
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE AN EASTERLY SLIGHT BREEZE
IS OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
19N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-
87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING WSW FLOW
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW
TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 19N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING. SHALLOW
MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A
WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N64W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 31N41W TO 20N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 22N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. A LARGE 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
41N22W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION AND FOR ITS
STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENING BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
07N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 18W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A NORTHERLY MODERATE
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE AN EASTERLY SLIGHT BREEZE
IS OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
19N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-
87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING WSW FLOW
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW
TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 19N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING. SHALLOW
MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A
WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N64W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 31N41W TO 20N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 22N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. A LARGE 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
41N22W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION AND FOR ITS
STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENING BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210954 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N107W TO 06N125W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND
113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 112W
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
NEAR 28N120W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO
NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N132W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N
W OF 130W...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRI. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS A FEW HOURS
AGO INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF PRIOR TO PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WHILE THE LATEST RAP AND GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FILLING IN ACROSS SE
MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...FURTHER
INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210954 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N107W TO 06N125W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND
113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 112W
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
NEAR 28N120W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO
NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N132W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N
W OF 130W...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRI. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS A FEW HOURS
AGO INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF PRIOR TO PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WHILE THE LATEST RAP AND GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FILLING IN ACROSS SE
MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...FURTHER
INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210954 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N107W TO 06N125W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND
113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 112W
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
NEAR 28N120W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO
NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N132W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N
W OF 130W...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRI. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS A FEW HOURS
AGO INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF PRIOR TO PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WHILE THE LATEST RAP AND GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FILLING IN ACROSS SE
MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...FURTHER
INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210954 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N107W TO 06N125W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND
113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 112W
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
NEAR 28N120W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO
NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N132W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N
W OF 130W...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRI. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS A FEW HOURS
AGO INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF PRIOR TO PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WHILE THE LATEST RAP AND GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FILLING IN ACROSS SE
MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...FURTHER
INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210928
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N107W TO 06N125W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND
113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 112W
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
NEAR 28N120W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO
NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N132W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N
W OF 130W...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRI. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS A FEW HOURS
AGO INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF PRIOR TO PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WHILE THE LATEST RAP AND GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FILLING IN ACROSS SE
MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...FURTHER
INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210928
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N107W TO 06N125W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND
113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 112W
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
NEAR 28N120W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO
NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N132W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N
W OF 130W...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRI. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS A FEW HOURS
AGO INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF PRIOR TO PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WHILE THE LATEST RAP AND GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FILLING IN ACROSS SE
MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...FURTHER
INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210928
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N107W TO 06N125W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND
113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 112W
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
NEAR 28N120W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO
NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N132W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N
W OF 130W...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRI. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS A FEW HOURS
AGO INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF PRIOR TO PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WHILE THE LATEST RAP AND GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FILLING IN ACROSS SE
MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...FURTHER
INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210928
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N107W TO 06N125W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND
113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 112W
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
NEAR 28N120W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO
NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W BY 24 HOURS WHERE
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N132W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING WITH AN AREA
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N
W OF 130W...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRI. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS A FEW HOURS
AGO INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF PRIOR TO PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WHILE THE LATEST RAP AND GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FILLING IN ACROSS SE
MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...FURTHER
INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE
GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N32W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-
31W...AND FROM 03N-08N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE IS
OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
23N93W TO 17N95W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
84W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF
PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY N OF 21N W OF 84W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W
CUBA. A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N56W. FROM THIS
POINT...THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS
FRONT. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 33N44W TO
21N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N
BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 40N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ESE WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING INTO A
TROUGH AND EXTENDING S ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N32W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-
31W...AND FROM 03N-08N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE IS
OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
23N93W TO 17N95W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
84W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF
PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY N OF 21N W OF 84W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W
CUBA. A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N56W. FROM THIS
POINT...THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS
FRONT. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 33N44W TO
21N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N
BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 40N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ESE WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING INTO A
TROUGH AND EXTENDING S ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N32W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-
31W...AND FROM 03N-08N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE IS
OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
23N93W TO 17N95W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
84W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF
PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY N OF 21N W OF 84W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W
CUBA. A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N56W. FROM THIS
POINT...THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS
FRONT. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 33N44W TO
21N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N
BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 40N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ESE WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING INTO A
TROUGH AND EXTENDING S ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N32W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-
31W...AND FROM 03N-08N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE IS
OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
23N93W TO 17N95W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
84W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF
PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY N OF 21N W OF 84W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W
CUBA. A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N56W. FROM THIS
POINT...THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS
FRONT. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 33N44W TO
21N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N
BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 40N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ESE WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING INTO A
TROUGH AND EXTENDING S ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210321
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1009 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N103W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING WSW TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 08N96W TO
07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N80W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N125W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 19N113W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 26N BETWEEN 110-122W TO INCLUDE THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE... ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-159W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E AND NE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 0N140W TO 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
19N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
E ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N122W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SOON ARRIVE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON SUN...BUT
EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE SWELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT...SEAS 10-12 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 118-126W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-
20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR
29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N104W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF
EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
ON MON WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W
BY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 08N92W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-
30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN LONG
FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX
ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW
ON THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210321
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1009 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N103W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING WSW TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 08N96W TO
07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N80W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N125W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 19N113W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 26N BETWEEN 110-122W TO INCLUDE THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE... ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-159W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E AND NE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 0N140W TO 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
19N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
E ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N122W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SOON ARRIVE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON SUN...BUT
EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE SWELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT...SEAS 10-12 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 118-126W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-
20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR
29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N104W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF
EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
ON MON WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W
BY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 08N92W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-
30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN LONG
FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX
ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW
ON THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210321
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1009 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N103W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING WSW TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 08N96W TO
07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N80W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N125W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 19N113W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 26N BETWEEN 110-122W TO INCLUDE THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE... ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-159W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E AND NE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 0N140W TO 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
19N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
E ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N122W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SOON ARRIVE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON SUN...BUT
EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE SWELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT...SEAS 10-12 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 118-126W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-
20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR
29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N104W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF
EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
ON MON WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W
BY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 08N92W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-
30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN LONG
FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX
ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW
ON THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210321
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1009 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N103W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING WSW TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 08N96W TO
07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N80W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N125W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 19N113W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 26N BETWEEN 110-122W TO INCLUDE THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE... ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-159W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E AND NE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 0N140W TO 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
19N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
E ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N122W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SOON ARRIVE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON SUN...BUT
EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE SWELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT...SEAS 10-12 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 118-126W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-
20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR
29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N104W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF
EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
ON MON WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W
BY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 08N92W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-
30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN LONG
FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX
ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW
ON THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N45W IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 210
NM SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SEAS
UP TO 17 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 06 HOURS. AS A
RESULT..THE GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 21/0000 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO
10N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N20W TO 05N30W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
36W-40W...AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ENE FROM
THE LOW TO BEYOND ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
20N96W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF
AND N FLORIDA N OF 29N E OF 87W. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND N OF FRONT. MOSTLY 10 KT WINDS ARE S OF
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 24N86W TO BEYOND 20N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 84W-
88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WSW FLOW
OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
DRIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF TO THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM 24N86W TO 20N88W TO 17N88W. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF 19N
BETWEEN 84W-88W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 14N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
31N55W TO 30N63W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 30N73W
TO 31N78W TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS FURTHER S NEAR
26N65W. A 1009 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N45W. SEE ABOVE. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 28N42W TO 22N41W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM E OF FRONT. A
LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 40N22W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOVE THE GALE
LOW. ALSO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOVE THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
DRIFT ESE WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE LOW TO MOVE TO
38N40W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 27N42W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1011 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N101W TO 05N140W...THEN CONTINUES WSW TO
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N97W TO
09N101W TO 05N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE OF LINE FROM 07N123W TO 07N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 16N125W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 27N BETWEEN 110-124W. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-160W...CONTINUES TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
10N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES PROPAGATE E
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N125W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF
8-13 FT SEAS TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH SOME...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND
MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 28N. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...SEAS 8-11 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-128W ON MON NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AT 29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NE 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N136W TO 15N105W. NE 15-20 KT
TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE
RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 07-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON MON WITH THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON...AND DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE
7-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W ON THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON AND TUE NIGHTS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN LATE WED
NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT WINDS LATE THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY TUE...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1011 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N101W TO 05N140W...THEN CONTINUES WSW TO
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N97W TO
09N101W TO 05N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE OF LINE FROM 07N123W TO 07N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 16N125W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 27N BETWEEN 110-124W. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-160W...CONTINUES TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
10N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES PROPAGATE E
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N125W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF
8-13 FT SEAS TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH SOME...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND
MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 28N. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...SEAS 8-11 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-128W ON MON NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AT 29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NE 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N136W TO 15N105W. NE 15-20 KT
TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE
RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 07-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON MON WITH THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON...AND DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE
7-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W ON THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON AND TUE NIGHTS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN LATE WED
NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT WINDS LATE THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY TUE...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N45W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N45W 30N47W 32N46W...TO THE
TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR 32N44W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N44W TO 28N42W AND 22N41W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N45W. A TROUGH IS ALONG
32N48W...TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 26N43W AND 24N36W. ANOTHER
BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N43W TO 18N44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF 32N46W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 21N
TO 30N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE
EAST SEMICIRCLE. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 17 FEET.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N11W TO
6N21W 5N32W 2N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 4N15W 5N30W 7N37W 6N42W 3N46W 1N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO
30N58W AND 29N54W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N61W 30N70W AND 30N74W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N74W TO 31N78W AND 30N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 29N84W AND 29N88W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N89W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
25N93W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N...CURVING INLAND TO
23N99W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N99W...ACROSS
MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND BEYOND. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N63W TO 30N70W
28N80W 25N86W 25N90W 23N94W AND TO 18N94W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ON TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT-TO-
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N89W-TO COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KGVX...
KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...
KGRY...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...
AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS TO A LINE FROM MARIANNA FLORIDA TO APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED BETWEEN ALABAMA AND
THE MARIANNA-TO-APALACHICOLA LINE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG 87W FROM 15N IN HONDURAS TO 23N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS SPREADING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N
SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM COZUMEL NEAR 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 80W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N80W...CURVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA...AND BEYOND 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 76W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA/83W EASTWARD...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.20 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 6N82W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE SAME TIME. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL
MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA/IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND END UP ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
START IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA. IT WILL RE-FORM NEAR 24N71W...AND
IT WILL END UP NEAR 25N71W AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 80W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N80W...CURVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA...AND BEYOND 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N18W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN MAURITANIA AND 30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 19N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 30N45W LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N45W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N45W 30N47W 32N46W...TO THE
TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR 32N44W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N44W TO 28N42W AND 22N41W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N45W. A TROUGH IS ALONG
32N48W...TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 26N43W AND 24N36W. ANOTHER
BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N43W TO 18N44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF 32N46W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 21N
TO 30N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE
EAST SEMICIRCLE. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 17 FEET.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N11W TO
6N21W 5N32W 2N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 4N15W 5N30W 7N37W 6N42W 3N46W 1N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO
30N58W AND 29N54W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N61W 30N70W AND 30N74W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N74W TO 31N78W AND 30N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 29N84W AND 29N88W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N89W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
25N93W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N...CURVING INLAND TO
23N99W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N99W...ACROSS
MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND BEYOND. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N63W TO 30N70W
28N80W 25N86W 25N90W 23N94W AND TO 18N94W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ON TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT-TO-
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N89W-TO COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KGVX...
KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...
KGRY...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...
AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS TO A LINE FROM MARIANNA FLORIDA TO APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED BETWEEN ALABAMA AND
THE MARIANNA-TO-APALACHICOLA LINE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG 87W FROM 15N IN HONDURAS TO 23N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS SPREADING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N
SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM COZUMEL NEAR 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 80W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N80W...CURVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA...AND BEYOND 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 76W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA/83W EASTWARD...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.20 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 6N82W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE SAME TIME. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL
MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA/IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND END UP ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
START IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA. IT WILL RE-FORM NEAR 24N71W...AND
IT WILL END UP NEAR 25N71W AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 80W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N80W...CURVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA...AND BEYOND 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N18W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN MAURITANIA AND 30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 19N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 30N45W LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 05N111W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE LOW NEAR 08N101W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF 120W DOMINATES NORTHERN
WATERS. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
IS SWEEPING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MAX SEAS TO
15-17 FT NEAR 30N130W BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LARGE AREA OF
SEAS GREATER THAN 7-8 FT EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION W OF 117W
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE THIS WEEKEND AND COVER MOST OF AREA W
OF 105W BY MON MORNING.

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 08N101W
IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE W THROUGH MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 15-20 KT
IS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MON MORNING WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL INDUCE VERY HIGH WINDS IN GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AFTER EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE
WINDS ARE LIKELY WED THROUGH FRI. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
DIURNAL MAX LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TUE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
WATERS AND TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN BECOME STRONG TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TIGHTENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 05N111W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE LOW NEAR 08N101W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF 120W DOMINATES NORTHERN
WATERS. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
IS SWEEPING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MAX SEAS TO
15-17 FT NEAR 30N130W BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LARGE AREA OF
SEAS GREATER THAN 7-8 FT EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION W OF 117W
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE THIS WEEKEND AND COVER MOST OF AREA W
OF 105W BY MON MORNING.

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 08N101W
IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE W THROUGH MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 15-20 KT
IS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MON MORNING WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL INDUCE VERY HIGH WINDS IN GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AFTER EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE
WINDS ARE LIKELY WED THROUGH FRI. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
DIURNAL MAX LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TUE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
WATERS AND TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN BECOME STRONG TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TIGHTENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 05N111W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE LOW NEAR 08N101W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF 120W DOMINATES NORTHERN
WATERS. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
IS SWEEPING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MAX SEAS TO
15-17 FT NEAR 30N130W BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LARGE AREA OF
SEAS GREATER THAN 7-8 FT EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION W OF 117W
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE THIS WEEKEND AND COVER MOST OF AREA W
OF 105W BY MON MORNING.

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 08N101W
IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE W THROUGH MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 15-20 KT
IS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MON MORNING WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL INDUCE VERY HIGH WINDS IN GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AFTER EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE
WINDS ARE LIKELY WED THROUGH FRI. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
DIURNAL MAX LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TUE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
WATERS AND TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN BECOME STRONG TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TIGHTENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 05N111W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE LOW NEAR 08N101W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF 120W DOMINATES NORTHERN
WATERS. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
IS SWEEPING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MAX SEAS TO
15-17 FT NEAR 30N130W BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LARGE AREA OF
SEAS GREATER THAN 7-8 FT EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION W OF 117W
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE THIS WEEKEND AND COVER MOST OF AREA W
OF 105W BY MON MORNING.

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 08N101W
IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE W THROUGH MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 15-20 KT
IS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MON MORNING WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL INDUCE VERY HIGH WINDS IN GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AFTER EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE
WINDS ARE LIKELY WED THROUGH FRI. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
DIURNAL MAX LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TUE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
WATERS AND TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN BECOME STRONG TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TIGHTENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N45W IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS
A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N33W TO
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N E OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 28N93W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N88W TO 29N84W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A N MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND
A SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO
EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
23N87W TO 18N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
MAINLY W OF 82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
20N W OF 83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO
28N63W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 22N40W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 22N BETWEEN 37W-47W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THIS LOW CENTER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N45W IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS
A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N33W TO
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N E OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 28N93W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N88W TO 29N84W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A N MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND
A SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO
EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
23N87W TO 18N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
MAINLY W OF 82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
20N W OF 83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO
28N63W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 22N40W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 22N BETWEEN 37W-47W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THIS LOW CENTER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N45W IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS
A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N33W TO
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N E OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 28N93W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N88W TO 29N84W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A N MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND
A SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO
EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
23N87W TO 18N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
MAINLY W OF 82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
20N W OF 83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO
28N63W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 22N40W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 22N BETWEEN 37W-47W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THIS LOW CENTER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N45W IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS
A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N33W TO
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N E OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 28N93W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N88W TO 29N84W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A N MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND
A SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO
EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
23N87W TO 18N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
MAINLY W OF 82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
20N W OF 83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO
28N63W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 22N40W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 22N BETWEEN 37W-47W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THIS LOW CENTER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 10N86W TO 09N89W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N89W TO 08N97W THEN RESUMES FROM
07N103W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1025 MB NEAR 27N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE
NEAR 15N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND
LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 48 HOURS...EXPANDING SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE AS THE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN.

MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 18 FT IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WHICH ARE SCRAPING ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM JUST W OF THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS INTO THE N CENTRAL
WATERS. A RECENT NEARBY ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 15 FT
AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS UP TO 13 FT. AN OLD SET OF NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE TRADES MENTIONED
ABOVE AND COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY
48 HOURS.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A WEAK 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N100W MOVING W AROUND
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WHILE SEAS ARE 8-9
FT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 08.5N110W AT 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SEAS
MERGE WITH THE AREA OF NW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RECENT ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES INDICATED 20-25 KT NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N
W OF 108W...WITH 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-
20 KT LATER TODAY...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT MON. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT N OF 26N W OF
110W TUE...PERSISTING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...THEN BACK TO
10-15 KT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON
WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY
TUE...THE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 10N86W TO 09N89W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N89W TO 08N97W THEN RESUMES FROM
07N103W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1025 MB NEAR 27N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE
NEAR 15N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND
LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 48 HOURS...EXPANDING SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE AS THE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN.

MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 18 FT IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WHICH ARE SCRAPING ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM JUST W OF THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS INTO THE N CENTRAL
WATERS. A RECENT NEARBY ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 15 FT
AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS UP TO 13 FT. AN OLD SET OF NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE TRADES MENTIONED
ABOVE AND COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY
48 HOURS.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A WEAK 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N100W MOVING W AROUND
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WHILE SEAS ARE 8-9
FT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 08.5N110W AT 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SEAS
MERGE WITH THE AREA OF NW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RECENT ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES INDICATED 20-25 KT NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N
W OF 108W...WITH 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-
20 KT LATER TODAY...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT MON. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT N OF 26N W OF
110W TUE...PERSISTING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...THEN BACK TO
10-15 KT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON
WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY
TUE...THE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN LIBERIA AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N13W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N28W TO 05N41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N E OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N95W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NORTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N90W TO 30N87W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND A
SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN-
CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW IS E OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W WITH ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N86W TO THE LOW TO 15N87W. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN ENHANCES MAINLY W OF 82W IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N W OF 83W. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CONTINUE
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO
27N75W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 23N42W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-49W. NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 41W-
45W. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN LIBERIA AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N13W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N28W TO 05N41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N E OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N95W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NORTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N90W TO 30N87W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND A
SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN-
CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW IS E OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W WITH ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N86W TO THE LOW TO 15N87W. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN ENHANCES MAINLY W OF 82W IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N W OF 83W. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CONTINUE
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO
27N75W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 23N42W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-49W. NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 41W-
45W. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA




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