Home > Products > National Data >
000
AXNT20 KNHC 251035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N16W ALONG 7N17W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N W OF 47W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-23W AND
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF LINE
FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 26N94W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF. A
WEAK ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TODAY
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE N GULF MON
MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN
THIS MORNING. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND SE HAITI S OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND E HAITI ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF
73W AND ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N76W. THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS. THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AND EXTENDS FROM A
1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N49W ALONG 26N56W TO 25N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT
HAS RETREATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE TRAILING FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 27N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
28N62W TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N30W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 29N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT TO THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N49W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF 28N E OF 60W IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE AND ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 24N34W. THE
LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. THE
TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE N OF THE AREA SUN AND SEND A COLD
FRONT INTO W ATLC EARLY MON THAT WILL STRETCH ALONG 27N TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N16W ALONG 7N17W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N W OF 47W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-23W AND
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF LINE
FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 26N94W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF. A
WEAK ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TODAY
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE N GULF MON
MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN
THIS MORNING. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND SE HAITI S OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND E HAITI ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF
73W AND ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N76W. THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS. THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AND EXTENDS FROM A
1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N49W ALONG 26N56W TO 25N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT
HAS RETREATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE TRAILING FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 27N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
28N62W TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N30W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 29N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT TO THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N49W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF 28N E OF 60W IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE AND ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 24N34W. THE
LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. THE
TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE N OF THE AREA SUN AND SEND A COLD
FRONT INTO W ATLC EARLY MON THAT WILL STRETCH ALONG 27N TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N16W ALONG 7N17W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N W OF 47W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-23W AND
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF LINE
FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 26N94W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF. A
WEAK ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TODAY
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE N GULF MON
MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN
THIS MORNING. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND SE HAITI S OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND E HAITI ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF
73W AND ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N76W. THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS. THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AND EXTENDS FROM A
1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N49W ALONG 26N56W TO 25N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT
HAS RETREATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE TRAILING FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 27N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
28N62W TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N30W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 29N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT TO THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N49W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF 28N E OF 60W IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE AND ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 24N34W. THE
LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. THE
TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE N OF THE AREA SUN AND SEND A COLD
FRONT INTO W ATLC EARLY MON THAT WILL STRETCH ALONG 27N TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 04N94W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N96W TO 10N107W...THEN RESUMES FROM 07N126W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 06N E
OF 78W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 91W-94W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES MID-UPPER LEVELS N OF 15N W
OF 110W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEAR LOS ANGELES W-SW TO AROUND 27N142W. A CORRESPONDING COLD
FRONT IS NOT EVIDENT NEAR THE SURFACE. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION W OF 129W ALONG THE ITCZ.

A NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N141W EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
N OF 17N W OF 115W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN 10N-20N W OF 120W. WIND
WAVES GENERATED BY THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE SUPPORTING 8-11 FT
COMBINED SEAS IN WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ.

SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TODAY...AND PRODUCE FRESH SWELL THAT WILL SWEEP S OF 30N W OF
124W TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 10-11 FT
SUN NIGHT.

EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT 20-25 KT W-SW
WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT FROM DIURNAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SONORAN DESERT THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 04N94W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N96W TO 10N107W...THEN RESUMES FROM 07N126W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 06N E
OF 78W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 91W-94W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES MID-UPPER LEVELS N OF 15N W
OF 110W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEAR LOS ANGELES W-SW TO AROUND 27N142W. A CORRESPONDING COLD
FRONT IS NOT EVIDENT NEAR THE SURFACE. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION W OF 129W ALONG THE ITCZ.

A NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N141W EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
N OF 17N W OF 115W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN 10N-20N W OF 120W. WIND
WAVES GENERATED BY THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE SUPPORTING 8-11 FT
COMBINED SEAS IN WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ.

SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TODAY...AND PRODUCE FRESH SWELL THAT WILL SWEEP S OF 30N W OF
124W TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 10-11 FT
SUN NIGHT.

EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT 20-25 KT W-SW
WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT FROM DIURNAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SONORAN DESERT THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 1W-
14W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-42W AND W OF 46W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N84W TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF.
THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT N AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAK
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON
MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM
FRONT LATE MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N83W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OUT OVER CUBA
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND E HAITI BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OFFICE OF
METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 73W
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N78W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N52W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N56W TO 25N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
SE OF THE FRONT E OF 58W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N62W 30N68W TO 27N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 61W-68W. THE TRAILING FRONT IS JUST N OF THE
REGION AND EXTENDS TO 32N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W-67W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 30N41W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR
32N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N28W. THE LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 32N59W NEAR 28N65W TO 26N72W EARLY ON SAT AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FAR S WATERS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL STAY JUST N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
WATERS EARLY MON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 1W-
14W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-42W AND W OF 46W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N84W TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF.
THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT N AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAK
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON
MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM
FRONT LATE MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N83W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OUT OVER CUBA
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND E HAITI BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OFFICE OF
METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 73W
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N78W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N52W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N56W TO 25N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
SE OF THE FRONT E OF 58W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N62W 30N68W TO 27N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 61W-68W. THE TRAILING FRONT IS JUST N OF THE
REGION AND EXTENDS TO 32N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W-67W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 30N41W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR
32N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N28W. THE LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 32N59W NEAR 28N65W TO 26N72W EARLY ON SAT AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FAR S WATERS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL STAY JUST N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
WATERS EARLY MON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 1W-
14W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-42W AND W OF 46W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N84W TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF.
THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT N AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAK
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON
MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM
FRONT LATE MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N83W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OUT OVER CUBA
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND E HAITI BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OFFICE OF
METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 73W
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N78W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N52W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N56W TO 25N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
SE OF THE FRONT E OF 58W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N62W 30N68W TO 27N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 61W-68W. THE TRAILING FRONT IS JUST N OF THE
REGION AND EXTENDS TO 32N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W-67W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 30N41W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR
32N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N28W. THE LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 32N59W NEAR 28N65W TO 26N72W EARLY ON SAT AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FAR S WATERS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL STAY JUST N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
WATERS EARLY MON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 1W-
14W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-42W AND W OF 46W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N84W TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF.
THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT N AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAK
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON
MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM
FRONT LATE MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N83W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OUT OVER CUBA
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND E HAITI BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OFFICE OF
METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 73W
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N78W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N52W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N56W TO 25N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
SE OF THE FRONT E OF 58W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N62W 30N68W TO 27N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 61W-68W. THE TRAILING FRONT IS JUST N OF THE
REGION AND EXTENDS TO 32N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W-67W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 30N41W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR
32N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N28W. THE LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 32N59W NEAR 28N65W TO 26N72W EARLY ON SAT AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FAR S WATERS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL STAY JUST N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
WATERS EARLY MON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250302
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 07N108W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N127W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 91W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
93W AND 98W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W
OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS EXTENDING FROM 32N109W THROUGH 20N115W TO 11N124W. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AROUND IT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N142W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 28N127W TO 16N107W. A
PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS IS
TIGHT ENOUGH BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NE-E TRADE WINDS WITH AN AREA OF SURROUNDING COMBINED SEAS OF 8-
11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF THE
AREA AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS SEEPING
INTO THE N CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALSO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUN WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
BUILDING BACK TO 8-10 FT BY SUN EVENING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM FAR NW MEXICO INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL THEN
TIGHTEN SAT AFTERNOON WITH A POCKET OF 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY 00 UTC SUN INTO SAT EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH
LEVELS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
LEVELS JUST SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING SAT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250302
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 07N108W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N127W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 91W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
93W AND 98W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W
OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS EXTENDING FROM 32N109W THROUGH 20N115W TO 11N124W. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AROUND IT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N142W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 28N127W TO 16N107W. A
PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS IS
TIGHT ENOUGH BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NE-E TRADE WINDS WITH AN AREA OF SURROUNDING COMBINED SEAS OF 8-
11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF THE
AREA AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS SEEPING
INTO THE N CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALSO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUN WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
BUILDING BACK TO 8-10 FT BY SUN EVENING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM FAR NW MEXICO INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL THEN
TIGHTEN SAT AFTERNOON WITH A POCKET OF 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY 00 UTC SUN INTO SAT EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH
LEVELS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
LEVELS JUST SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING SAT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250302
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 07N108W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N127W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 91W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
93W AND 98W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W
OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS EXTENDING FROM 32N109W THROUGH 20N115W TO 11N124W. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AROUND IT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N142W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 28N127W TO 16N107W. A
PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS IS
TIGHT ENOUGH BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NE-E TRADE WINDS WITH AN AREA OF SURROUNDING COMBINED SEAS OF 8-
11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF THE
AREA AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS SEEPING
INTO THE N CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALSO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUN WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
BUILDING BACK TO 8-10 FT BY SUN EVENING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM FAR NW MEXICO INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL THEN
TIGHTEN SAT AFTERNOON WITH A POCKET OF 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY 00 UTC SUN INTO SAT EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH
LEVELS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
LEVELS JUST SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING SAT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250302
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 07N108W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N127W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 91W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
93W AND 98W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W
OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS EXTENDING FROM 32N109W THROUGH 20N115W TO 11N124W. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AROUND IT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N142W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 28N127W TO 16N107W. A
PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS IS
TIGHT ENOUGH BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NE-E TRADE WINDS WITH AN AREA OF SURROUNDING COMBINED SEAS OF 8-
11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF THE
AREA AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS SEEPING
INTO THE N CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALSO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUN WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
BUILDING BACK TO 8-10 FT BY SUN EVENING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM FAR NW MEXICO INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL THEN
TIGHTEN SAT AFTERNOON WITH A POCKET OF 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY 00 UTC SUN INTO SAT EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH
LEVELS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
LEVELS JUST SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING SAT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW
TO 03N14W TO 03N18W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS CONTINUES TO 01S31W 02S40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08S TO 01N W
OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE SUPPORTS A
COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W-NW ATLC. THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...WHICH THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NE GULF ALONG 26N82W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W.
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT IS BANKING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FOG
ON THE NW BASIN N OF 26N W OF 90W AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N
OF 29N. OVER THE SE GULF...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A WEAK CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1014 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 25N83W. FAIR WEATHER IS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF S OF 25N BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A 1017 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF. LOW PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT
IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT
STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS BEING
ADVECTED TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY N-NE WIND FLOW...THUS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND SOUTHERN CUBA AND
ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORT TRADES OF 15 KT S OF 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 80W AND
VARIABLE LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N
ATLC IS BEING ADVECTED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ISLAND. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER HAITI AND
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND MAY CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE SUPPORTS A
COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W-NW ATLC. THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N65W SW TO 28N75W TO FORT MYERS WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A SECOND COLD FROM EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 31N51W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N59W TO 24N69W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 260 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
23N. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW
TO 03N14W TO 03N18W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS CONTINUES TO 01S31W 02S40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08S TO 01N W
OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE SUPPORTS A
COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W-NW ATLC. THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...WHICH THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NE GULF ALONG 26N82W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W.
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT IS BANKING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FOG
ON THE NW BASIN N OF 26N W OF 90W AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N
OF 29N. OVER THE SE GULF...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A WEAK CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1014 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 25N83W. FAIR WEATHER IS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF S OF 25N BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A 1017 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF. LOW PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT
IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT
STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS BEING
ADVECTED TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY N-NE WIND FLOW...THUS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND SOUTHERN CUBA AND
ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORT TRADES OF 15 KT S OF 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 80W AND
VARIABLE LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N
ATLC IS BEING ADVECTED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ISLAND. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER HAITI AND
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND MAY CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE SUPPORTS A
COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W-NW ATLC. THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N65W SW TO 28N75W TO FORT MYERS WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A SECOND COLD FROM EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 31N51W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N59W TO 24N69W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 260 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
23N. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW
TO 03N14W TO 03N18W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS CONTINUES TO 01S31W 02S40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08S TO 01N W
OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE SUPPORTS A
COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W-NW ATLC. THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...WHICH THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NE GULF ALONG 26N82W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W.
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT IS BANKING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FOG
ON THE NW BASIN N OF 26N W OF 90W AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N
OF 29N. OVER THE SE GULF...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A WEAK CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1014 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 25N83W. FAIR WEATHER IS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF S OF 25N BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A 1017 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF. LOW PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT
IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT
STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS BEING
ADVECTED TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY N-NE WIND FLOW...THUS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND SOUTHERN CUBA AND
ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORT TRADES OF 15 KT S OF 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 80W AND
VARIABLE LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N
ATLC IS BEING ADVECTED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ISLAND. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER HAITI AND
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND MAY CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE SUPPORTS A
COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W-NW ATLC. THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N65W SW TO 28N75W TO FORT MYERS WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A SECOND COLD FROM EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 31N51W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N59W TO 24N69W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 260 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
23N. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242121
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO 07N107W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N125W
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W...AND FROM 02N TO 07N W
OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS EXTENDING FROM 32N110W THROUGH 20N120W TO 11N130W. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AROUND IT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N142W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 28N127W TO
18N104W. A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...THE
EASTERN ONE EXTENDING FROM 15N104W TO 08N109W...AND THE WESTERN
ONE FROM 14N120W TO 05N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS IS TIGHT ENOUGH BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADE WINDS WITH AN
AREA OF SURROUNDING COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF THE
AREA AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS SEEPING
INTO THE N CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALSO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT EVENING WHICH WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SUN WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 8-11
FT BY SUN AFTERNOON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM FAR NW
CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N115W TO 29N114W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL TIGHTEN SAT AFTERNOON WITH A POCKET OF 20-30 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY 00 UTC SUN INTO SAT
EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG LEVELS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DURING PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG JUST SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING SAT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242121
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO 07N107W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N125W
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W...AND FROM 02N TO 07N W
OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS EXTENDING FROM 32N110W THROUGH 20N120W TO 11N130W. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AROUND IT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N142W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 28N127W TO
18N104W. A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...THE
EASTERN ONE EXTENDING FROM 15N104W TO 08N109W...AND THE WESTERN
ONE FROM 14N120W TO 05N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS IS TIGHT ENOUGH BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADE WINDS WITH AN
AREA OF SURROUNDING COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF THE
AREA AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS SEEPING
INTO THE N CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALSO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT EVENING WHICH WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SUN WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 8-11
FT BY SUN AFTERNOON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM FAR NW
CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N115W TO 29N114W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL TIGHTEN SAT AFTERNOON WITH A POCKET OF 20-30 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY 00 UTC SUN INTO SAT
EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG LEVELS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DURING PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG JUST SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING SAT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242121
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO 07N107W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N125W
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W...AND FROM 02N TO 07N W
OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS EXTENDING FROM 32N110W THROUGH 20N120W TO 11N130W. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AROUND IT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N142W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 28N127W TO
18N104W. A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...THE
EASTERN ONE EXTENDING FROM 15N104W TO 08N109W...AND THE WESTERN
ONE FROM 14N120W TO 05N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS IS TIGHT ENOUGH BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADE WINDS WITH AN
AREA OF SURROUNDING COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF THE
AREA AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS SEEPING
INTO THE N CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALSO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT EVENING WHICH WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SUN WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 8-11
FT BY SUN AFTERNOON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM FAR NW
CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N115W TO 29N114W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL TIGHTEN SAT AFTERNOON WITH A POCKET OF 20-30 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY 00 UTC SUN INTO SAT
EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG LEVELS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DURING PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG JUST SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING SAT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242121
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO 07N107W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N125W
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W...AND FROM 02N TO 07N W
OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS EXTENDING FROM 32N110W THROUGH 20N120W TO 11N130W. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AROUND IT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N142W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 28N127W TO
18N104W. A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...THE
EASTERN ONE EXTENDING FROM 15N104W TO 08N109W...AND THE WESTERN
ONE FROM 14N120W TO 05N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS IS TIGHT ENOUGH BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADE WINDS WITH AN
AREA OF SURROUNDING COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF THE
AREA AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS SEEPING
INTO THE N CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALSO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT EVENING WHICH WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SUN WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 8-11
FT BY SUN AFTERNOON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM FAR NW
CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N115W TO 29N114W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL TIGHTEN SAT AFTERNOON WITH A POCKET OF 20-30 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY 00 UTC SUN INTO SAT
EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG LEVELS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DURING PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG JUST SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING SAT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 06W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE GULF WATERS NEAR
29N83W TO 28N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. WHILE THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...S-SE RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
26N W OF 90W...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND
EASTERN TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SE GULF
TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
PROVIDING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY AND
QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE GULF COAST WITH A SECONDARY FRONT TO
EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W WITH A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WHILE AN
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER BREEZE CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS FROM 24/1414 UTC WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-77W. IT IS ALSO LIKELY
THAT STRONGER TRADES ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DUE
TO MORE LOCALIZED EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ALONG 20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 80W PROVIDING FOR
VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND NEAR 44N67W WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF 35N64W. GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...THEY SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W TO 31N68W THAT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO THE
NW INTO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N74W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TRAILS TO THE SW FROM THIS LOW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
29N81W. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY IS E OF 70W WHICH IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM
EAST OF THE EASTERNMOST COLD FRONT AND BETWEEN 30N-32N BETWEEN
67W-72W. IN ADDITION...A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 29N76W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER PARENT TROUGH
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IS IN THE VICINITY OF 30N58W AND SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N54W TO 26N60W TO 25N69W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT W OF 58W...AND FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 45W-56W. AS ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR N OF 32N WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 35N42W WITH THE NEWLY
DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE AREA. FINALLY...A PAIR OF MERGING 1022 MB
HIGHS INFLUENCE THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 25N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 06W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE GULF WATERS NEAR
29N83W TO 28N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. WHILE THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...S-SE RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
26N W OF 90W...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND
EASTERN TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SE GULF
TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
PROVIDING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY AND
QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE GULF COAST WITH A SECONDARY FRONT TO
EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W WITH A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WHILE AN
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER BREEZE CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS FROM 24/1414 UTC WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-77W. IT IS ALSO LIKELY
THAT STRONGER TRADES ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DUE
TO MORE LOCALIZED EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ALONG 20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 80W PROVIDING FOR
VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND NEAR 44N67W WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF 35N64W. GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...THEY SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W TO 31N68W THAT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO THE
NW INTO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N74W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TRAILS TO THE SW FROM THIS LOW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
29N81W. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY IS E OF 70W WHICH IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM
EAST OF THE EASTERNMOST COLD FRONT AND BETWEEN 30N-32N BETWEEN
67W-72W. IN ADDITION...A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 29N76W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER PARENT TROUGH
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IS IN THE VICINITY OF 30N58W AND SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N54W TO 26N60W TO 25N69W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT W OF 58W...AND FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 45W-56W. AS ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR N OF 32N WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 35N42W WITH THE NEWLY
DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE AREA. FINALLY...A PAIR OF MERGING 1022 MB
HIGHS INFLUENCE THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 25N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 06N112W TO 07N119W THROUGH LOW
PRES 1010 MB NEAR 07N121W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AND PERSISTS DUE TO THE LARGE DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC E OF
105W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA
N OF 10N AND W OF 105W...AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND
WESTERN U.S. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH THIS MEAN CIRCULATION...AND ARE GRADUALLY
ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE. A 70-90 KT
UPPER JET IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 14-16N
AND ACCELERATES TO 85-100 PLUS KT AS SW WINDS LIFT OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS STREAMING N-NE
AHEAD OF TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST
STATES.

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N143W AND ANCHORS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN WATERS...EXTENDING FROM THE
HIGH TO NEAR 16N108W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN A TRIANGULAR AREA ROUGHLY
DEFINED FROM 23N140W TO 20N132W TO 10N124W TO 04N140W WHERE NE
TO E WINDS WERE 20-25 KT AND SEAS RUNNING 9 TO 12 FT. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE AREA OF STRONG TRADES TO BETWEEN 10N
AND 16N AND W OF 124W BY SUN.

STRONG NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS ARE
GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL THAT IS MOVING S AND ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS PRESENTLY 8 TO 11 FT NW OF A
LINE FROM 30N117W TO 26N117W TO 20N124W TO 23N140W. THIS SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH SAT BEFORE A NEW PULSE OF NORTHERLY
SWELL INVADES THESE NE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND BUILDS
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 25N.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES W TO SW WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING OCCURRING E OF
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE N
HALF OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THIS
GENERAL VICINITY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE EAST SIDE WILL WEAKEN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
15-20 KT.

SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES E OF
96W...AND SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF OF
COLOMBIA AND SOUTH AMERICA AND IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE E OF 98W. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 06N112W TO 07N119W THROUGH LOW
PRES 1010 MB NEAR 07N121W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AND PERSISTS DUE TO THE LARGE DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC E OF
105W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA
N OF 10N AND W OF 105W...AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND
WESTERN U.S. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH THIS MEAN CIRCULATION...AND ARE GRADUALLY
ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE. A 70-90 KT
UPPER JET IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 14-16N
AND ACCELERATES TO 85-100 PLUS KT AS SW WINDS LIFT OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS STREAMING N-NE
AHEAD OF TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST
STATES.

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N143W AND ANCHORS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN WATERS...EXTENDING FROM THE
HIGH TO NEAR 16N108W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN A TRIANGULAR AREA ROUGHLY
DEFINED FROM 23N140W TO 20N132W TO 10N124W TO 04N140W WHERE NE
TO E WINDS WERE 20-25 KT AND SEAS RUNNING 9 TO 12 FT. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE AREA OF STRONG TRADES TO BETWEEN 10N
AND 16N AND W OF 124W BY SUN.

STRONG NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS ARE
GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL THAT IS MOVING S AND ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS PRESENTLY 8 TO 11 FT NW OF A
LINE FROM 30N117W TO 26N117W TO 20N124W TO 23N140W. THIS SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH SAT BEFORE A NEW PULSE OF NORTHERLY
SWELL INVADES THESE NE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND BUILDS
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 25N.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES W TO SW WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING OCCURRING E OF
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE N
HALF OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THIS
GENERAL VICINITY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE EAST SIDE WILL WEAKEN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
15-20 KT.

SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES E OF
96W...AND SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF OF
COLOMBIA AND SOUTH AMERICA AND IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE E OF 98W. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 06N112W TO 07N119W THROUGH LOW
PRES 1010 MB NEAR 07N121W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AND PERSISTS DUE TO THE LARGE DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC E OF
105W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA
N OF 10N AND W OF 105W...AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND
WESTERN U.S. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH THIS MEAN CIRCULATION...AND ARE GRADUALLY
ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE. A 70-90 KT
UPPER JET IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 14-16N
AND ACCELERATES TO 85-100 PLUS KT AS SW WINDS LIFT OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS STREAMING N-NE
AHEAD OF TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST
STATES.

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N143W AND ANCHORS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN WATERS...EXTENDING FROM THE
HIGH TO NEAR 16N108W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN A TRIANGULAR AREA ROUGHLY
DEFINED FROM 23N140W TO 20N132W TO 10N124W TO 04N140W WHERE NE
TO E WINDS WERE 20-25 KT AND SEAS RUNNING 9 TO 12 FT. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE AREA OF STRONG TRADES TO BETWEEN 10N
AND 16N AND W OF 124W BY SUN.

STRONG NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS ARE
GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL THAT IS MOVING S AND ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS PRESENTLY 8 TO 11 FT NW OF A
LINE FROM 30N117W TO 26N117W TO 20N124W TO 23N140W. THIS SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH SAT BEFORE A NEW PULSE OF NORTHERLY
SWELL INVADES THESE NE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND BUILDS
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 25N.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES W TO SW WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING OCCURRING E OF
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE N
HALF OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THIS
GENERAL VICINITY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE EAST SIDE WILL WEAKEN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
15-20 KT.

SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES E OF
96W...AND SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF OF
COLOMBIA AND SOUTH AMERICA AND IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE E OF 98W. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 06N112W TO 07N119W THROUGH LOW
PRES 1010 MB NEAR 07N121W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AND PERSISTS DUE TO THE LARGE DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC E OF
105W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA
N OF 10N AND W OF 105W...AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND
WESTERN U.S. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH THIS MEAN CIRCULATION...AND ARE GRADUALLY
ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE. A 70-90 KT
UPPER JET IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 14-16N
AND ACCELERATES TO 85-100 PLUS KT AS SW WINDS LIFT OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS STREAMING N-NE
AHEAD OF TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST
STATES.

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N143W AND ANCHORS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN WATERS...EXTENDING FROM THE
HIGH TO NEAR 16N108W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN A TRIANGULAR AREA ROUGHLY
DEFINED FROM 23N140W TO 20N132W TO 10N124W TO 04N140W WHERE NE
TO E WINDS WERE 20-25 KT AND SEAS RUNNING 9 TO 12 FT. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE AREA OF STRONG TRADES TO BETWEEN 10N
AND 16N AND W OF 124W BY SUN.

STRONG NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS ARE
GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL THAT IS MOVING S AND ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS PRESENTLY 8 TO 11 FT NW OF A
LINE FROM 30N117W TO 26N117W TO 20N124W TO 23N140W. THIS SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH SAT BEFORE A NEW PULSE OF NORTHERLY
SWELL INVADES THESE NE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND BUILDS
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 25N.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES W TO SW WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING OCCURRING E OF
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE N
HALF OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THIS
GENERAL VICINITY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE EAST SIDE WILL WEAKEN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
15-20 KT.

SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES E OF
96W...AND SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF OF
COLOMBIA AND SOUTH AMERICA AND IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE E OF 98W. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE INLAND OVER SW
AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-4W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS THEN N-NW TO OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR W ATLC
ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE AND INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N THEN INLAND AGAIN OVER SE LOUISIANA. HEAVY SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH FOG INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF
25N W OF 94W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL OVER THE NE GULF
TODAY. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE NO
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA TO SAINT LUCIA LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT
MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND S HAITI S OF 19N W OF 71W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N.
THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THEN INLAND
OVER SE GEORGIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND FRONT IS N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 66W-76W AND N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N39W 31N43W TO 30N46W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N52W 27N59W TO 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N72W TO 25N75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN SW ALONG 21N27W TO 18N40W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N17W
ALONG 28N22W TO 25N31W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 23N29W AND
27N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CAPE
CANAVERAL EARLY SAT AND REMAIN N OF 23N REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE INLAND OVER SW
AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-4W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS THEN N-NW TO OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR W ATLC
ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE AND INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N THEN INLAND AGAIN OVER SE LOUISIANA. HEAVY SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH FOG INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF
25N W OF 94W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL OVER THE NE GULF
TODAY. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE NO
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA TO SAINT LUCIA LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT
MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND S HAITI S OF 19N W OF 71W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N.
THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THEN INLAND
OVER SE GEORGIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND FRONT IS N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 66W-76W AND N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N39W 31N43W TO 30N46W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N52W 27N59W TO 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N72W TO 25N75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN SW ALONG 21N27W TO 18N40W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N17W
ALONG 28N22W TO 25N31W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 23N29W AND
27N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CAPE
CANAVERAL EARLY SAT AND REMAIN N OF 23N REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE INLAND OVER SW
AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-4W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS THEN N-NW TO OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR W ATLC
ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE AND INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N THEN INLAND AGAIN OVER SE LOUISIANA. HEAVY SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH FOG INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF
25N W OF 94W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL OVER THE NE GULF
TODAY. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE NO
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA TO SAINT LUCIA LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT
MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND S HAITI S OF 19N W OF 71W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N.
THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THEN INLAND
OVER SE GEORGIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND FRONT IS N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 66W-76W AND N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N39W 31N43W TO 30N46W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N52W 27N59W TO 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N72W TO 25N75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN SW ALONG 21N27W TO 18N40W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N17W
ALONG 28N22W TO 25N31W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 23N29W AND
27N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CAPE
CANAVERAL EARLY SAT AND REMAIN N OF 23N REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE INLAND OVER SW
AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-4W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS THEN N-NW TO OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR W ATLC
ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE AND INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N THEN INLAND AGAIN OVER SE LOUISIANA. HEAVY SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH FOG INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF
25N W OF 94W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL OVER THE NE GULF
TODAY. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE NO
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA TO SAINT LUCIA LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT
MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND S HAITI S OF 19N W OF 71W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N.
THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THEN INLAND
OVER SE GEORGIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND FRONT IS N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 66W-76W AND N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N39W 31N43W TO 30N46W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N52W 27N59W TO 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N72W TO 25N75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN SW ALONG 21N27W TO 18N40W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N17W
ALONG 28N22W TO 25N31W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 23N29W AND
27N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CAPE
CANAVERAL EARLY SAT AND REMAIN N OF 23N REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE INLAND OVER SW
AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-4W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS THEN N-NW TO OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR W ATLC
ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE AND INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N THEN INLAND AGAIN OVER SE LOUISIANA. HEAVY SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH FOG INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF
25N W OF 94W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL OVER THE NE GULF
TODAY. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE NO
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA TO SAINT LUCIA LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT
MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND S HAITI S OF 19N W OF 71W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N.
THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THEN INLAND
OVER SE GEORGIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND FRONT IS N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 66W-76W AND N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N39W 31N43W TO 30N46W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N52W 27N59W TO 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N72W TO 25N75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN SW ALONG 21N27W TO 18N40W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N17W
ALONG 28N22W TO 25N31W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 23N29W AND
27N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CAPE
CANAVERAL EARLY SAT AND REMAIN N OF 23N REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE INLAND OVER SW
AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-4W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS THEN N-NW TO OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR W ATLC
ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE AND INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N THEN INLAND AGAIN OVER SE LOUISIANA. HEAVY SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH FOG INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF
25N W OF 94W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL OVER THE NE GULF
TODAY. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE NO
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA TO SAINT LUCIA LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT
MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND S HAITI S OF 19N W OF 71W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N.
THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THEN INLAND
OVER SE GEORGIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND FRONT IS N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 66W-76W AND N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N39W 31N43W TO 30N46W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N52W 27N59W TO 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N72W TO 25N75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN SW ALONG 21N27W TO 18N40W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N17W
ALONG 28N22W TO 25N31W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 23N29W AND
27N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CAPE
CANAVERAL EARLY SAT AND REMAIN N OF 23N REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240915
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 06N112W TO 07N119W THROUGH LOW
PRES 1010 MB NEAR 07N121W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO 25N127W. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 120W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING N-NE
AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS.

1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N144W ANCHORS A BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN A TRIANGULAR
REGION ROUGHLY DEFINED FROM 26N138W TO 13N115W TO 07N135W. THE
NE WINDS ARE GENERATING WIND WAVES WHICH ARE PRIMARY COMPONENT
OF 8-11 FT SEAS INDICATED FROM ALTIMETER DATA. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH SUN WITH
FRESH NE TRADES AND 8-10 FT SEAS.

VERY STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE GENERATING
NORTHERLY SWELL THAT WILL SWEEP S OF 30N LATE SAT NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA CAN
EXPECT 20-30 KT W-SW WINDS THIS MORNING FROM DIURNAL EFFECTS
ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH IN THE SONORAN DESERT. AN ASCAT
PASS AT 0415 UTC SHOWED A RIBBON OF HIGHER WINDS BETWEEN 30-31N.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 240526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-6W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 6W-
19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS. THIS IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH A SEABREEZE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER MEXICO AND ARE
SPREADING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS AND INTO
THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-28N W OF 95W. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E GULF 27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND STALL OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF.
HONDURAS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE N. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 29N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OF THE W ATLC AND IS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N41W 31N44W TO 30N50W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N54W 27N62W 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N73W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS W OF
THE FRONT NEAR 20N66W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN W-SW ALONG 20N36W TO 16N50W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N19W ALONG 26N28W TO 22N39W.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT
WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 24N31W AND 25N36W. CENTRAL
ATLC FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRI MORNING AND QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW MOVING E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST SAT NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS
ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-6W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 6W-
19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS. THIS IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH A SEABREEZE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER MEXICO AND ARE
SPREADING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS AND INTO
THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-28N W OF 95W. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E GULF 27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND STALL OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF.
HONDURAS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE N. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 29N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OF THE W ATLC AND IS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N41W 31N44W TO 30N50W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N54W 27N62W 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N73W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS W OF
THE FRONT NEAR 20N66W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN W-SW ALONG 20N36W TO 16N50W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N19W ALONG 26N28W TO 22N39W.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT
WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 24N31W AND 25N36W. CENTRAL
ATLC FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRI MORNING AND QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW MOVING E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST SAT NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS
ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-6W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 6W-
19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS. THIS IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH A SEABREEZE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER MEXICO AND ARE
SPREADING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS AND INTO
THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-28N W OF 95W. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E GULF 27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND STALL OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF.
HONDURAS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE N. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 29N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OF THE W ATLC AND IS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N41W 31N44W TO 30N50W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N54W 27N62W 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N73W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS W OF
THE FRONT NEAR 20N66W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN W-SW ALONG 20N36W TO 16N50W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N19W ALONG 26N28W TO 22N39W.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT
WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 24N31W AND 25N36W. CENTRAL
ATLC FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRI MORNING AND QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW MOVING E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST SAT NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS
ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-6W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 6W-
19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS. THIS IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH A SEABREEZE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER MEXICO AND ARE
SPREADING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS AND INTO
THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-28N W OF 95W. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E GULF 27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND STALL OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF.
HONDURAS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE N. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 29N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OF THE W ATLC AND IS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N41W 31N44W TO 30N50W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N54W 27N62W 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N73W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS W OF
THE FRONT NEAR 20N66W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN W-SW ALONG 20N36W TO 16N50W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N19W ALONG 26N28W TO 22N39W.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT
WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 24N31W AND 25N36W. CENTRAL
ATLC FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRI MORNING AND QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW MOVING E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST SAT NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS
ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240235
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 08N114W TO 07N119W THEN
RESUMES FROM 06N123W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N116W TO
21N122W TO 13N127W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS WITHIN
480 NM TO 600 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WHICH
IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM 11N120W BEYOND 25N108W INTO
MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...FROM
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N145W THROUGH 32N137W TO 17N105W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE
TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. COMBINED SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN
MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELLS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REDWOOD COAST. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEA HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8-11
FT THAT ARE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT THAT IS TAKING PLACE ENDS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SURROUNDS THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING GIVING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
PULSES OF THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL PULSE FROM THE
MIDNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR TONIGHT
AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WIND FLOW WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01S28W JUST E OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30W. THE
ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 02S32W AND CONTINUES
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 02N W OF 24W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 37N47W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TRANSITIONING
TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE N OF THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THEN EXTENDS NW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THE ACROSS THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N82W TO 29N86W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS
GENERATING A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NE GULF. WIND
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE ALSO ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS
TO THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NW GULF N OF 27N AND ALONG
COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS INDICATED BY GOES-13
MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR FOG PROBABILITIES. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
DISSIPATING FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND E-SE TRADES OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS IS GENERATING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER CUBA...WHICH ALONG MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL CUBA...EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS. MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC IS BEING ADVECTED TO
HISPANIOLA...WHICH ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVENTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE
N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 37N47W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N47W
SW TO 27N57W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT SW TO
25N68W THEN STARTS TO WEAKEN TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NW ACROSS THE NE GULF TO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W
AND 64W. SIMILAR CONVECTION ALONG WITH TSTMS ARE S OF THE
BOUNDARY TO ANDROS ISLAND W OF 76W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N
ATLC FRIDAY MORNING ENHANCING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01S28W JUST E OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30W. THE
ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 02S32W AND CONTINUES
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 02N W OF 24W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 37N47W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TRANSITIONING
TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE N OF THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THEN EXTENDS NW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THE ACROSS THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N82W TO 29N86W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS
GENERATING A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NE GULF. WIND
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE ALSO ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS
TO THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NW GULF N OF 27N AND ALONG
COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS INDICATED BY GOES-13
MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR FOG PROBABILITIES. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
DISSIPATING FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND E-SE TRADES OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS IS GENERATING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER CUBA...WHICH ALONG MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL CUBA...EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS. MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC IS BEING ADVECTED TO
HISPANIOLA...WHICH ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVENTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE
N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 37N47W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N47W
SW TO 27N57W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT SW TO
25N68W THEN STARTS TO WEAKEN TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NW ACROSS THE NE GULF TO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W
AND 64W. SIMILAR CONVECTION ALONG WITH TSTMS ARE S OF THE
BOUNDARY TO ANDROS ISLAND W OF 76W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N
ATLC FRIDAY MORNING ENHANCING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01S28W JUST E OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30W. THE
ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 02S32W AND CONTINUES
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 02N W OF 24W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 37N47W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TRANSITIONING
TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE N OF THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THEN EXTENDS NW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THE ACROSS THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N82W TO 29N86W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS
GENERATING A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NE GULF. WIND
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE ALSO ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS
TO THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NW GULF N OF 27N AND ALONG
COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS INDICATED BY GOES-13
MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR FOG PROBABILITIES. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
DISSIPATING FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND E-SE TRADES OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS IS GENERATING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER CUBA...WHICH ALONG MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL CUBA...EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS. MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC IS BEING ADVECTED TO
HISPANIOLA...WHICH ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVENTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE
N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 37N47W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N47W
SW TO 27N57W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT SW TO
25N68W THEN STARTS TO WEAKEN TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NW ACROSS THE NE GULF TO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W
AND 64W. SIMILAR CONVECTION ALONG WITH TSTMS ARE S OF THE
BOUNDARY TO ANDROS ISLAND W OF 76W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N
ATLC FRIDAY MORNING ENHANCING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01S28W JUST E OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30W. THE
ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 02S32W AND CONTINUES
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 02N W OF 24W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 37N47W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TRANSITIONING
TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE N OF THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THEN EXTENDS NW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THE ACROSS THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N82W TO 29N86W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS
GENERATING A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NE GULF. WIND
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE ALSO ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS
TO THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NW GULF N OF 27N AND ALONG
COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS INDICATED BY GOES-13
MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR FOG PROBABILITIES. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
DISSIPATING FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND E-SE TRADES OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS IS GENERATING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER CUBA...WHICH ALONG MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL CUBA...EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS. MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC IS BEING ADVECTED TO
HISPANIOLA...WHICH ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVENTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE
N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 37N47W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N47W
SW TO 27N57W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT SW TO
25N68W THEN STARTS TO WEAKEN TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NW ACROSS THE NE GULF TO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W
AND 64W. SIMILAR CONVECTION ALONG WITH TSTMS ARE S OF THE
BOUNDARY TO ANDROS ISLAND W OF 76W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N
ATLC FRIDAY MORNING ENHANCING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232132
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N93W TO 08N114W TO 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N
TO 04N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 118W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
80W AND 82W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N117W TO
25N122W TO 13N130W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS WITHIN
420 NM TO 580 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WHICH
IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM 11N125W BEYOND 25N108W INTO
MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW... FROM
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N144W THROUGH 32N139W TO 18N106W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE
TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. COMBINED SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN
MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELLS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REDWOOD COAST. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEA HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8-11
FT THAT ARE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT THAT IS TAKING PLACE ENDS.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SURROUNDS THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING GIVING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
PULSES OF THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL PULSE FROM THE
MIDNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR TONIGHT
AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WIND FLOW WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232132
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N93W TO 08N114W TO 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N
TO 04N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 118W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
80W AND 82W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N117W TO
25N122W TO 13N130W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS WITHIN
420 NM TO 580 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WHICH
IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM 11N125W BEYOND 25N108W INTO
MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW... FROM
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N144W THROUGH 32N139W TO 18N106W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE
TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. COMBINED SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN
MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELLS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REDWOOD COAST. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEA HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8-11
FT THAT ARE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT THAT IS TAKING PLACE ENDS.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SURROUNDS THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING GIVING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
PULSES OF THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL PULSE FROM THE
MIDNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR TONIGHT
AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WIND FLOW WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 231736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SPLITS THE ITCZ AND
EXTENDS FROM 04N27W TO 01S27W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES S OF THE
EQUATOR TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND CENTRAL
FL AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W TO 29N90W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF
IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT
COVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL
BE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...A CONVECTION FREE SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N92W TO 19N93W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY IN A MOIST AIRMASS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...WITH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL PASS ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

LOW PRESSURE OUTSIDE OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N58W TO 26N68W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 27N80W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO 27N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 47W AND
56W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN US COAST IS PRODUCING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OF 1021 MB AND 1022 MB ARE LOCATED NEAR 26N38W AND 24N28W...
RESPECTIVELY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT LIES BETWEEN THESE HIGH
CENTERS AND EXTENDS ONTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N20W TO
23N39W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST NORTH
OF OUR OFFSHORE WATERS OFF NORTH FL...TO AROUND 60W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER FL BUT WILL REMAIN IN TACT
E OF 75W. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THESE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 231736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SPLITS THE ITCZ AND
EXTENDS FROM 04N27W TO 01S27W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES S OF THE
EQUATOR TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND CENTRAL
FL AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W TO 29N90W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF
IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT
COVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL
BE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...A CONVECTION FREE SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N92W TO 19N93W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY IN A MOIST AIRMASS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...WITH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL PASS ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

LOW PRESSURE OUTSIDE OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N58W TO 26N68W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 27N80W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO 27N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 47W AND
56W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN US COAST IS PRODUCING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OF 1021 MB AND 1022 MB ARE LOCATED NEAR 26N38W AND 24N28W...
RESPECTIVELY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT LIES BETWEEN THESE HIGH
CENTERS AND EXTENDS ONTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N20W TO
23N39W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST NORTH
OF OUR OFFSHORE WATERS OFF NORTH FL...TO AROUND 60W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER FL BUT WILL REMAIN IN TACT
E OF 75W. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THESE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231607
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS NOT YET PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N92.5W TO 04N97W TO 09N116W TO
04.5N127W TO 02N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED N OF LINE FROM 01N91W TO 06N76.5W. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS
THE AREA N OF 13N THIS MORNING...AND IS SHIFTING VERY SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE...AND RECENT EMBEDDED CYCLONES HAVE ALL
WEAKENED AND BECOME ELONGATED AND ABSORBED WITHIN THE TROUGH...
WHICH EXTENDS FROM 35N115W TO 26N120W TO 13N127W. THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH S OF 25N HAS SHIFTED SE AND DUG DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MID LEVEL SINKING MOTION WITHIN
THE BASE. THIS HAS AIDED IN REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG THE ITCZ FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY....DUE TO
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOW OCCURRING SE OF THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...AND CONTINUES
TO TRANSPORT SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE N HALF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION. THIS UPPER RIDGE TO THE E CONTINUES TO EXTEND E-NE INTO
THE NW CARIB AND HAS ALSO AMPLIFIED N AND NE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE N GULF COAST STATES.

THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED A BENIGN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SE INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR
24N124W...AND WAS DEPICTED BY EARLY MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES
AS AN ABRUPT LINE OF SHARPLY INCREASING NW WINDS...WITH 5-15 KT
WINDS SE OF THE FRONT...AND 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. N
TO NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT N OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL PEAK IN HEIGHT BY AROUND NOON BEFORE SEAS FADE
VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 36N144W SOUTHEASTWARD AND
UNDERNEATH THE FRONT TO NEAR 19N112W. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT
EXISTS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ TO
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE AREA W AND
SW OF THE FRONT...WITH A SOLID AREA OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS
PERSISTING ACROSS SW PORTIONS...WHERE SEAS ARE 9 TO 11 FT. THE
HIGH WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 32N OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS TO BECOME CONFINED S OF 20N BY FRI NIGHT AND THEN S
OF 17N ON SAT.

IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH IS COMPARATIVELY
STRONGER THIS MORNING...AND IS PRODUCING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF
29.5N. WINDS THERE E OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE MIDNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE
MIDDAY HOURS FOR TODAY THURSDAY...AND FOR TOMORROW FRIDAY DURING
THE SAME TIME PERIOD....THEN DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT EACH
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
THE EQUATOR AND SOUTH AMERICA. FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ARE BLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE TRADITIONAL GAP
WIND REGIONS. LOOK FOR N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT EACH NIGHT AND MORNING FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231607
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS NOT YET PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N92.5W TO 04N97W TO 09N116W TO
04.5N127W TO 02N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED N OF LINE FROM 01N91W TO 06N76.5W. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS
THE AREA N OF 13N THIS MORNING...AND IS SHIFTING VERY SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE...AND RECENT EMBEDDED CYCLONES HAVE ALL
WEAKENED AND BECOME ELONGATED AND ABSORBED WITHIN THE TROUGH...
WHICH EXTENDS FROM 35N115W TO 26N120W TO 13N127W. THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH S OF 25N HAS SHIFTED SE AND DUG DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MID LEVEL SINKING MOTION WITHIN
THE BASE. THIS HAS AIDED IN REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG THE ITCZ FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY....DUE TO
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOW OCCURRING SE OF THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...AND CONTINUES
TO TRANSPORT SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE N HALF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION. THIS UPPER RIDGE TO THE E CONTINUES TO EXTEND E-NE INTO
THE NW CARIB AND HAS ALSO AMPLIFIED N AND NE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE N GULF COAST STATES.

THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED A BENIGN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SE INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR
24N124W...AND WAS DEPICTED BY EARLY MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES
AS AN ABRUPT LINE OF SHARPLY INCREASING NW WINDS...WITH 5-15 KT
WINDS SE OF THE FRONT...AND 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. N
TO NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT N OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL PEAK IN HEIGHT BY AROUND NOON BEFORE SEAS FADE
VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 36N144W SOUTHEASTWARD AND
UNDERNEATH THE FRONT TO NEAR 19N112W. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT
EXISTS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ TO
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE AREA W AND
SW OF THE FRONT...WITH A SOLID AREA OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS
PERSISTING ACROSS SW PORTIONS...WHERE SEAS ARE 9 TO 11 FT. THE
HIGH WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 32N OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS TO BECOME CONFINED S OF 20N BY FRI NIGHT AND THEN S
OF 17N ON SAT.

IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH IS COMPARATIVELY
STRONGER THIS MORNING...AND IS PRODUCING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF
29.5N. WINDS THERE E OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE MIDNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE
MIDDAY HOURS FOR TODAY THURSDAY...AND FOR TOMORROW FRIDAY DURING
THE SAME TIME PERIOD....THEN DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT EACH
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
THE EQUATOR AND SOUTH AMERICA. FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ARE BLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE TRADITIONAL GAP
WIND REGIONS. LOOK FOR N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT EACH NIGHT AND MORNING FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXNT20 KNHC 231019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N23W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 01S27W TO 04S38W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N-06S BETWEEN 12W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N95W TO
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N AND E OF 88W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF
26N AND W OF 94W. ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. A
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W.
BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE
FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE
FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO
WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THE FOG OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 13N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
11N66W TO 15N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL.
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 31N63W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N71W TO
30N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 49W-62W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 27N75W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 26N39W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N23W TO
24N38W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N23W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 01S27W TO 04S38W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N-06S BETWEEN 12W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N95W TO
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N AND E OF 88W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF
26N AND W OF 94W. ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. A
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W.
BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE
FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE
FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO
WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THE FOG OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 13N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
11N66W TO 15N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL.
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 31N63W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N71W TO
30N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 49W-62W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 27N75W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 26N39W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N23W TO
24N38W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N23W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 01S27W TO 04S38W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N-06S BETWEEN 12W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N95W TO
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N AND E OF 88W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF
26N AND W OF 94W. ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. A
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W.
BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE
FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE
FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO
WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THE FOG OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 13N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
11N66W TO 15N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL.
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 31N63W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N71W TO
30N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 49W-62W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 27N75W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 26N39W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N23W TO
24N38W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N23W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 01S27W TO 04S38W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N-06S BETWEEN 12W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N95W TO
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N AND E OF 88W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF
26N AND W OF 94W. ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. A
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W.
BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE
FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE
FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO
WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THE FOG OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 13N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
11N66W TO 15N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL.
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 31N63W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N71W TO
30N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 49W-62W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 27N75W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 26N39W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N23W TO
24N38W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 03N903W 05N95W 04N101W 06N110W...AND THEN IT
RESUMES FROM 05N124W TO 03N133W TO 04N140W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...AND BETWEEN 104W AND 109W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N114W 12N119W 06N123W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N118W TO
25N124W TO 15N130W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS WITHIN
500 NM TO 600 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. THE
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM 11N130W BEYOND 25N109W INTO
MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW... FROM MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE ITCZ. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
36N144W...THROUGH 32N138W TO 22N133W...TO 19N122W...TO 17N104W.

THE SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW IS REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND THE ITCZ
IS SUPPORTING THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 10N TO 16N FROM 132W
WESTWARD. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 FEET IN MIXED
SWELL. A LARGER AREA OF WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 8 TO
10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 05N TO
23N FROM 126W WESTWARD AT THIS MOMENT. EXPECT MORE COMPARATIVELY
SMALLER AREAS OF 20 TO 25 NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO BE INSIDE
COMPARATIVELY BIGGER AREAS OF WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FOR THE 48 HOURS.

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REDWOOD COAST. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEA HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 9 TO
11 FEET...THAT ARE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. THEY WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND AT NIGHT...AS THE GALE FORCE WIND EVENT THAT IS TAKING PLACE
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ENDS.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH IS COMPARATIVELY STRONGER AT
THE MOMENT...GIVING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. PULSES OF 20 TO 25
KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE PRESENT...FROM 30N NORTHWARD...FROM THE
MIDNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR TODAY
THURSDAY...AND FOR TOMORROW FRIDAY DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00N22W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 00N29W TO 02S45W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-
07N AND W 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N96W TO
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 24N
BETWEEN 83W-93W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING N OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 90W.
ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. BENIGN WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO
TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND HENCE MOVE N WITH CONVECTION.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 14N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
11N68W TO 16N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. TO THE N...A STATIONARY
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL.
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 31N58W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N71W TO
30N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-67W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 28N75W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 27N43W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N24W TO
25N40W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00N22W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 00N29W TO 02S45W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-
07N AND W 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N96W TO
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 24N
BETWEEN 83W-93W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING N OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 90W.
ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. BENIGN WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO
TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND HENCE MOVE N WITH CONVECTION.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 14N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
11N68W TO 16N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. TO THE N...A STATIONARY
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL.
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 31N58W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N71W TO
30N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-67W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 28N75W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 27N43W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N24W TO
25N40W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00N22W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 00N29W TO 02S45W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-
07N AND W 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N96W TO
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 24N
BETWEEN 83W-93W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING N OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 90W.
ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. BENIGN WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO
TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND HENCE MOVE N WITH CONVECTION.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 14N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
11N68W TO 16N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. TO THE N...A STATIONARY
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL.
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 31N58W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N71W TO
30N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-67W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 28N75W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 27N43W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N24W TO
25N40W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00N22W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 00N29W TO 02S45W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-
07N AND W 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N96W TO
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 24N
BETWEEN 83W-93W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING N OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 90W.
ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. BENIGN WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO
TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND HENCE MOVE N WITH CONVECTION.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 14N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
11N68W TO 16N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. TO THE N...A STATIONARY
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL.
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 31N58W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N71W TO
30N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-67W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 28N75W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 27N43W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N24W TO
25N40W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230233
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 03N103W TO 07N115W THEN
RESUMES FROM 07N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING OFF OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA REDWOOD COAST WHICH ARE GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL
WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE N CENTRAL
DISCUSSION WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT N OF THE AREA ENDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N111W TO 09N118W TO 04N123W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1033 MB IS LOCATED NW-N OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS NEAR 36N142W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
32N138W TO 21N121W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND
N OF THE ITCZ WHERE LOWER PRESSURES ARE PRESENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 131W AS
INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE
ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ARE COMMINGLING WITH LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 9-11 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

E OF 110W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS
THE GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO...WHERE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW WAS PRODUCING FRESH N AND NE WINDS RESPECTIVELY. GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-25 KNOTS
EACH NIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA S-SE INTO THE N HALF OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR S-SW WINDS N OF 29N E OF THE
TROUGH TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD
BRIEFLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE TIMES OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230233
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 03N103W TO 07N115W THEN
RESUMES FROM 07N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING OFF OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA REDWOOD COAST WHICH ARE GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL
WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE N CENTRAL
DISCUSSION WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT N OF THE AREA ENDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N111W TO 09N118W TO 04N123W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1033 MB IS LOCATED NW-N OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS NEAR 36N142W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
32N138W TO 21N121W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND
N OF THE ITCZ WHERE LOWER PRESSURES ARE PRESENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 131W AS
INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE
ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ARE COMMINGLING WITH LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 9-11 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

E OF 110W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS
THE GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO...WHERE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW WAS PRODUCING FRESH N AND NE WINDS RESPECTIVELY. GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-25 KNOTS
EACH NIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA S-SE INTO THE N HALF OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR S-SW WINDS N OF 29N E OF THE
TROUGH TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD
BRIEFLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE TIMES OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230233
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 03N103W TO 07N115W THEN
RESUMES FROM 07N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING OFF OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA REDWOOD COAST WHICH ARE GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL
WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE N CENTRAL
DISCUSSION WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT N OF THE AREA ENDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N111W TO 09N118W TO 04N123W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1033 MB IS LOCATED NW-N OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS NEAR 36N142W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
32N138W TO 21N121W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND
N OF THE ITCZ WHERE LOWER PRESSURES ARE PRESENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 131W AS
INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE
ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ARE COMMINGLING WITH LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 9-11 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

E OF 110W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS
THE GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO...WHERE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW WAS PRODUCING FRESH N AND NE WINDS RESPECTIVELY. GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-25 KNOTS
EACH NIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA S-SE INTO THE N HALF OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR S-SW WINDS N OF 29N E OF THE
TROUGH TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD
BRIEFLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE TIMES OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230233
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 03N103W TO 07N115W THEN
RESUMES FROM 07N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING OFF OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA REDWOOD COAST WHICH ARE GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL
WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE N CENTRAL
DISCUSSION WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT N OF THE AREA ENDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N111W TO 09N118W TO 04N123W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1033 MB IS LOCATED NW-N OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS NEAR 36N142W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
32N138W TO 21N121W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND
N OF THE ITCZ WHERE LOWER PRESSURES ARE PRESENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 131W AS
INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE
ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ARE COMMINGLING WITH LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 9-11 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

E OF 110W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS
THE GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO...WHERE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW WAS PRODUCING FRESH N AND NE WINDS RESPECTIVELY. GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-25 KNOTS
EACH NIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA S-SE INTO THE N HALF OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR S-SW WINDS N OF 29N E OF THE
TROUGH TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD
BRIEFLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE TIMES OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W 02S40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07S TO 01N W OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NW TO 26N90W TO COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR
28N96W. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING A SLIGHT
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT...WHICH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. S-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 15 KT OVER THE SE
GULF AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT...THUS
SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE N-NE GULF DURING THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS
ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS. RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDS TO JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS GENERATED BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. BESIDES A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING SHOWERS...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER
THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVENTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE
N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N62W SW TO 26N73W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W NW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 54W
AND 71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC S OF
THE FRONT W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG
30N25W SW TO 24N40W WHERE IT STALLS AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT OVER THE
SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU MORNING LEAVING A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC FRIDAY MORNING ENHANCING SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W 02S40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07S TO 01N W OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NW TO 26N90W TO COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR
28N96W. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING A SLIGHT
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT...WHICH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. S-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 15 KT OVER THE SE
GULF AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT...THUS
SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE N-NE GULF DURING THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS
ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS. RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDS TO JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS GENERATED BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. BESIDES A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING SHOWERS...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER
THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVENTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE
N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N62W SW TO 26N73W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W NW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 54W
AND 71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC S OF
THE FRONT W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG
30N25W SW TO 24N40W WHERE IT STALLS AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT OVER THE
SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU MORNING LEAVING A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC FRIDAY MORNING ENHANCING SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W 02S40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07S TO 01N W OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NW TO 26N90W TO COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR
28N96W. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING A SLIGHT
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT...WHICH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. S-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 15 KT OVER THE SE
GULF AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT...THUS
SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE N-NE GULF DURING THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS
ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS. RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDS TO JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS GENERATED BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. BESIDES A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING SHOWERS...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER
THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVENTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE
N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N62W SW TO 26N73W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W NW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 54W
AND 71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC S OF
THE FRONT W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG
30N25W SW TO 24N40W WHERE IT STALLS AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT OVER THE
SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU MORNING LEAVING A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC FRIDAY MORNING ENHANCING SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W 02S40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07S TO 01N W OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NW TO 26N90W TO COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR
28N96W. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING A SLIGHT
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT...WHICH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. S-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 15 KT OVER THE SE
GULF AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT...THUS
SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE N-NE GULF DURING THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS
ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS. RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDS TO JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS GENERATED BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. BESIDES A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING SHOWERS...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER
THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVENTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE
N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N62W SW TO 26N73W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W NW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 54W
AND 71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC S OF
THE FRONT W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG
30N25W SW TO 24N40W WHERE IT STALLS AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT OVER THE
SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU MORNING LEAVING A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC FRIDAY MORNING ENHANCING SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222154
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 03N103W TO 07N117W THEN
RESUMES FROM 06N122W TO 07N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W
AND 132W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 133W AND 136W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING OFF OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA REDWOOD COAST WHICH ARE GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL
WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT N OF THE AREA ENDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N119W TO 23N124W WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1035 MB IS LOCATED NW-N OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS NEAR 38N141W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
32N138W TO 21N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND
N OF THE ITCZ WHERE LOWER PRESSURES ARE PRESENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 132W AS
INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE
ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ARE COMMINGLING WITH LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

E OF 110W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS
THE GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO...WHERE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW WAS PRODUCING FRESH N AND NE WINDS RESPECTIVELY. GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-25 KNOTS
EACH NIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA S-SE INTO THE N HALF OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR S-SW WINDS N OF 29N E OF THE
TROUGH TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD
BRIEFLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE TIMES OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222154
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 03N103W TO 07N117W THEN
RESUMES FROM 06N122W TO 07N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W
AND 132W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 133W AND 136W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING OFF OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA REDWOOD COAST WHICH ARE GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL
WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT N OF THE AREA ENDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N119W TO 23N124W WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1035 MB IS LOCATED NW-N OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS NEAR 38N141W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
32N138W TO 21N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND
N OF THE ITCZ WHERE LOWER PRESSURES ARE PRESENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 132W AS
INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE
ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ARE COMMINGLING WITH LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

E OF 110W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS
THE GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO...WHERE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW WAS PRODUCING FRESH N AND NE WINDS RESPECTIVELY. GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-25 KNOTS
EACH NIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA S-SE INTO THE N HALF OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR S-SW WINDS N OF 29N E OF THE
TROUGH TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD
BRIEFLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE TIMES OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221759 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 05N
BETWEEN 11W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE
CROSSING SOUTH FL AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO 26N91W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FL
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 23N83W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN THE FL PENINSULA AND 89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE TX COAST FROM
26N TO 28N ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FROM 24N91W TO
19N93W. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER TX WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING AN
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOW COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. OTHER THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE...FAIR
WEATHER IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

MAINLY DAYTIME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO 27N74W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTH FL NEAR 26N80W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N74W...OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
EAST OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
30N46W...AND ANOTHER HIGH OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 33N13W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES BETWEEN THESE
TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N26W AND EXTENDS TO 25N41W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 27N51W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BOTH FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
ALONG AND SE OF THE WESTERNMOST FRONTAL SYSTEM.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221759 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 05N
BETWEEN 11W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE
CROSSING SOUTH FL AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO 26N91W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FL
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 23N83W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN THE FL PENINSULA AND 89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE TX COAST FROM
26N TO 28N ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FROM 24N91W TO
19N93W. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER TX WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING AN
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOW COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. OTHER THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE...FAIR
WEATHER IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

MAINLY DAYTIME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO 27N74W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTH FL NEAR 26N80W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N74W...OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
EAST OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
30N46W...AND ANOTHER HIGH OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 33N13W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES BETWEEN THESE
TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N26W AND EXTENDS TO 25N41W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 27N51W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BOTH FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
ALONG AND SE OF THE WESTERNMOST FRONTAL SYSTEM.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221759 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 05N
BETWEEN 11W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE
CROSSING SOUTH FL AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO 26N91W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FL
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 23N83W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN THE FL PENINSULA AND 89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE TX COAST FROM
26N TO 28N ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FROM 24N91W TO
19N93W. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER TX WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING AN
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOW COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. OTHER THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE...FAIR
WEATHER IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

MAINLY DAYTIME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO 27N74W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTH FL NEAR 26N80W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N74W...OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
EAST OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
30N46W...AND ANOTHER HIGH OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 33N13W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES BETWEEN THESE
TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N26W AND EXTENDS TO 25N41W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 27N51W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BOTH FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
ALONG AND SE OF THE WESTERNMOST FRONTAL SYSTEM.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221651 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 05N
BETWEEN 11W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE
CROSSING SOUTH FL AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO 26N91W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FL
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 23N83W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN THE FL PENINSULA AND 89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE TX COAST FROM
26N TO 28N ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FROM 24N91W TO
19N93W. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER TX WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING AN
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOW COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. OTHER THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE...FAIR
WEATHER IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

MAINLY DAYTIME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO 27N74W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTH FL NEAR 26N80W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N74W...OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
EAST OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
30N46W...AND ANOTHER HIGH OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 33N13W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES BETWEEN THESE
TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N26W AND EXTENDS TO 25N41W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 27N51W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BOTH FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
ALONG AND SE OF THE WESTERNMOST FRONTAL SYSTEM.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS NOT YET PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04.5N90W TO 07N113W TO BEYOND
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM N AND 240 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN
100W AND 125W...AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND INTO
THE BROAD MEAN UPPER TROUGH PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N
OF 20N...AND EXTENDS FROM 36N126W TO 30N124W TO 21N128W. A
SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE W SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND IS NOW
SWEEPING EWD AND ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND HAS ACTED
TO NUDGE THE DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
N-NE. SHARP UPPER RIDGES ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS TROUGH ARE
PREVENTING MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE PATTERN. A STRONG UPPER
JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD AND
MEAN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM SE OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII NEAR 18N152W TO 20N129W THEN NE ACROSS CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS N MEXICO. SPEED DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET IS ACTING TO VENTILATE THE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER
PATTERN...ELONGATED RIDGING PREVAILS AND EXTENDS E-NE INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 30N120W TO
23N126W. THIS BOUNDARY GENERALLY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A NEW
PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. MODERATE PERIOD N SWELL GENERATED
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA IS SPREADING S INTO THE AREA AND MIXING
WITH THIS NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT...AND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 8 TO 11 FT ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS.

A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 38N141W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEAST TO THE COLD FRONT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS
PRODUCING A BROAD ZONE OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
TRADEWINDS...COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 125W...AND S OF 20N
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. NE TRADEWINDS 20-25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SW CORNER OF THE AREA W OF LINE FROM 08N140W TO 08N132W TO
18N140W...WHERE SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 9 TO 11 FT WITH MIXED NW
SWELL. THE HIGH WILL SINK SLOWLY S AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 1030 MB
OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WHICH WILL ACT TO EXPAND THE AREA OF
STRONGER TRADES SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND E...WHERE SEAS WILL
REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT.

E OF 110W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAILING IN MIXED SWELL. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS THE GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO...WHERE
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WAS PRODUCING FRESH N AND NE WINDS
RESPECTIVELY. GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED
TO PULSE TO 20-25 KNOTS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA S-SE INTO THE N HALF OF THE GULF. OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS FROM 29N
NORTHWARD. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TODAY...AND THEN RE-
STRENGTHEN OFF AND ON DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FRESH-TO-
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PULSE EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEAS WILL BUILD BRIEFLY 5 TO 7 FEET JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DURING THE TIMES OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS NOT YET PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04.5N90W TO 07N113W TO BEYOND
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM N AND 240 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN
100W AND 125W...AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND INTO
THE BROAD MEAN UPPER TROUGH PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N
OF 20N...AND EXTENDS FROM 36N126W TO 30N124W TO 21N128W. A
SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE W SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND IS NOW
SWEEPING EWD AND ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND HAS ACTED
TO NUDGE THE DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
N-NE. SHARP UPPER RIDGES ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS TROUGH ARE
PREVENTING MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE PATTERN. A STRONG UPPER
JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD AND
MEAN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM SE OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII NEAR 18N152W TO 20N129W THEN NE ACROSS CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS N MEXICO. SPEED DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET IS ACTING TO VENTILATE THE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER
PATTERN...ELONGATED RIDGING PREVAILS AND EXTENDS E-NE INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 30N120W TO
23N126W. THIS BOUNDARY GENERALLY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A NEW
PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. MODERATE PERIOD N SWELL GENERATED
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA IS SPREADING S INTO THE AREA AND MIXING
WITH THIS NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT...AND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 8 TO 11 FT ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS.

A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 38N141W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEAST TO THE COLD FRONT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS
PRODUCING A BROAD ZONE OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
TRADEWINDS...COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 125W...AND S OF 20N
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. NE TRADEWINDS 20-25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SW CORNER OF THE AREA W OF LINE FROM 08N140W TO 08N132W TO
18N140W...WHERE SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 9 TO 11 FT WITH MIXED NW
SWELL. THE HIGH WILL SINK SLOWLY S AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 1030 MB
OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WHICH WILL ACT TO EXPAND THE AREA OF
STRONGER TRADES SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND E...WHERE SEAS WILL
REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT.

E OF 110W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAILING IN MIXED SWELL. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS THE GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO...WHERE
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WAS PRODUCING FRESH N AND NE WINDS
RESPECTIVELY. GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED
TO PULSE TO 20-25 KNOTS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA S-SE INTO THE N HALF OF THE GULF. OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS FROM 29N
NORTHWARD. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TODAY...AND THEN RE-
STRENGTHEN OFF AND ON DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FRESH-TO-
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PULSE EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEAS WILL BUILD BRIEFLY 5 TO 7 FEET JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DURING THE TIMES OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
STRIPLING



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities