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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271538
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECTED
TO INDUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT N OF
15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 0000 UTC UNTIL 0900 UTC. BY
EARLY SAT MORNING THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH 20
TO 30 KT WINDS LIKELY N OF 13-14N BETWEEN 95-96W IN THE REGION.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11-12 FT TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 9-10 FT SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N83W TO 03N90W TO 04N96W...
WHERE THE ITCZ BECOMES EVIDENT...THEN CONTINUES TO 09N112W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF
ITCZ AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N144W
TO 24N125W TO 20N113W. HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE WILL BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD E OF 135W SAT AND SUN...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM 30N117W TO 27N130W SAT NIGHT. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INDUCE FRESH-STRONG SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W
THROUGH MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL NE WIND SURGES TO 20-25 KT WILL
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271538
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECTED
TO INDUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT N OF
15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 0000 UTC UNTIL 0900 UTC. BY
EARLY SAT MORNING THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH 20
TO 30 KT WINDS LIKELY N OF 13-14N BETWEEN 95-96W IN THE REGION.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11-12 FT TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 9-10 FT SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N83W TO 03N90W TO 04N96W...
WHERE THE ITCZ BECOMES EVIDENT...THEN CONTINUES TO 09N112W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF
ITCZ AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N144W
TO 24N125W TO 20N113W. HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE WILL BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD E OF 135W SAT AND SUN...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM 30N117W TO 27N130W SAT NIGHT. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INDUCE FRESH-STRONG SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W
THROUGH MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL NE WIND SURGES TO 20-25 KT WILL
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. A GALE IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC
SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY. A GALE IS AGAIN EXPECTED ON
0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MOROCCO...DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-
FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 1N20W TO 0N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 8W-19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-1N BETWEEN 22W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 23N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO BELIZE AT 17N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND
THE SE GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-25 KT NE WINDS ARE N
OF THE FRONT. 10-15 SW WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. PRESENTLY
TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA RANGE FROM 36 F AT PENSACOLA TO 70 F AT
MIAMI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W
TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N88W WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON
AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 15N AND
E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE E. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND TO HAVE OCCASIONAL
PASSING SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N71W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT...WHILE 15-
20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N24W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W.
A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MOROCCO. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N140W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N67W THROUGH THE N
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. A GALE IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC
SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY. A GALE IS AGAIN EXPECTED ON
0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MOROCCO...DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-
FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 1N20W TO 0N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 8W-19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-1N BETWEEN 22W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 23N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO BELIZE AT 17N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND
THE SE GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-25 KT NE WINDS ARE N
OF THE FRONT. 10-15 SW WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. PRESENTLY
TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA RANGE FROM 36 F AT PENSACOLA TO 70 F AT
MIAMI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W
TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N88W WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON
AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 15N AND
E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE E. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND TO HAVE OCCASIONAL
PASSING SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N71W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT...WHILE 15-
20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N24W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W.
A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MOROCCO. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N140W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N67W THROUGH THE N
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270959
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY IN
ABOUT 18 HOURS...AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRIDAY EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE
BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W ON SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE
INDICATES ANOTHER BRIEFLY SURGE TO GALE FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT.
THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH LATE MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY MON
EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA
RICA NEAR 08N83W TO 06N88W AND TO 05N93W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR
06N100W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 09N112W TO 07N125W TO 08N132W TO
07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W... AND FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 134W AND 136W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N140W TO
10N130W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 03N TO 20N FROM 126W WESTWARD. THE SCATTERED-TO-
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE ITCZ IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N135W TO 23N130W...CURVING TO
14N108W. A SMALL AREA OF EASTERLY TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH
EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT
ACROSS MOST OF PACIFIC WATERS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 130W. THE
SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINED SEA
HEIGHTS WILL BE SUBSIDING TO LOWER THAN 8 FEET BY EARLY
SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM
27N/28N NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 118W
AND 130W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRIDAY
AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY...AND THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FROM 29.5N NORTHWARD
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO RELAX TO
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT
SW-NW WIND SHIFT.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FROM THE
MIDNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY UNTIL THE MIDNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY.

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270959
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY IN
ABOUT 18 HOURS...AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRIDAY EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE
BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W ON SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE
INDICATES ANOTHER BRIEFLY SURGE TO GALE FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT.
THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH LATE MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY MON
EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA
RICA NEAR 08N83W TO 06N88W AND TO 05N93W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR
06N100W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 09N112W TO 07N125W TO 08N132W TO
07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W... AND FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 134W AND 136W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N140W TO
10N130W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 03N TO 20N FROM 126W WESTWARD. THE SCATTERED-TO-
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE ITCZ IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N135W TO 23N130W...CURVING TO
14N108W. A SMALL AREA OF EASTERLY TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH
EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT
ACROSS MOST OF PACIFIC WATERS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 130W. THE
SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINED SEA
HEIGHTS WILL BE SUBSIDING TO LOWER THAN 8 FEET BY EARLY
SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM
27N/28N NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 118W
AND 130W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRIDAY
AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY...AND THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FROM 29.5N NORTHWARD
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO RELAX TO
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT
SW-NW WIND SHIFT.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FROM THE
MIDNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY UNTIL THE MIDNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY.

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1800 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY 0600
UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 1S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 3S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 22W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W
TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W TO N GUATEMALA AT 18N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA...WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. 15-25 KT NE
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 SW WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. MOST OF
THE GULF N OF FRONT HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 40`S AND 50`S...
WHILE MIAMI FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE 70`S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N88W WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA AS OF 0600 UTC TONIGHT.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE E. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND TO HAVE OCCASIONAL
PASSING SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N73W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT...WHILE 15-
20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W.
A GALE IS NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N140W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N69W THROUGH THE N
BAHAMAS TO W CUBA AT 23N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1800 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY 0600
UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 1S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 3S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 22W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W
TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W TO N GUATEMALA AT 18N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA...WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. 15-25 KT NE
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 SW WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. MOST OF
THE GULF N OF FRONT HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 40`S AND 50`S...
WHILE MIAMI FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE 70`S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N88W WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA AS OF 0600 UTC TONIGHT.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE E. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND TO HAVE OCCASIONAL
PASSING SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N73W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT...WHILE 15-
20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W.
A GALE IS NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N140W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N69W THROUGH THE N
BAHAMAS TO W CUBA AT 23N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1800 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY 0600
UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 1S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 3S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 22W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W
TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W TO N GUATEMALA AT 18N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA...WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. 15-25 KT NE
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 SW WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. MOST OF
THE GULF N OF FRONT HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 40`S AND 50`S...
WHILE MIAMI FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE 70`S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N88W WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA AS OF 0600 UTC TONIGHT.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE E. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND TO HAVE OCCASIONAL
PASSING SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N73W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT...WHILE 15-
20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W.
A GALE IS NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N140W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N69W THROUGH THE N
BAHAMAS TO W CUBA AT 23N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1800 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY 0600
UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 1S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 3S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 22W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W
TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W TO N GUATEMALA AT 18N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA...WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. 15-25 KT NE
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 SW WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. MOST OF
THE GULF N OF FRONT HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 40`S AND 50`S...
WHILE MIAMI FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE 70`S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N88W WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA AS OF 0600 UTC TONIGHT.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE E. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND TO HAVE OCCASIONAL
PASSING SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N73W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT...WHILE 15-
20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W.
A GALE IS NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N140W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N69W THROUGH THE N
BAHAMAS TO W CUBA AT 23N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270318
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...
AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W
ON SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER BRIEFLY SURGE TO GALE
FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY 20-25
KT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING
BELOW 20 KT BY MON EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES WNW TO 08N115W...THEN DIPS SW TO
07N130W...THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR 09N131W...THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUE W TO
BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N112W TO
09N123W TO 12N128W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 17N147W WITH ITS
CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 08-
23N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE INTERMITTENTLY ENHANCED
WITHIN THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA
ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 13N122W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE...AND TO THE E OF
THE UPPER CYCLONE...IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS
CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 270
NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 13N105W. A SMALL AREA OF
EASTERLY TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR
LESS. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS MOST OF PACIFIC
WATERS W OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH
COMBINED SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS
TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11
FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS
THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT
WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270318
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...
AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W
ON SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER BRIEFLY SURGE TO GALE
FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY 20-25
KT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING
BELOW 20 KT BY MON EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES WNW TO 08N115W...THEN DIPS SW TO
07N130W...THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR 09N131W...THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUE W TO
BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N112W TO
09N123W TO 12N128W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 17N147W WITH ITS
CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 08-
23N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE INTERMITTENTLY ENHANCED
WITHIN THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA
ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 13N122W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE...AND TO THE E OF
THE UPPER CYCLONE...IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS
CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 270
NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 13N105W. A SMALL AREA OF
EASTERLY TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR
LESS. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS MOST OF PACIFIC
WATERS W OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH
COMBINED SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS
TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11
FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS
THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT
WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 262338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1200 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
0600 UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-00N BETWEEN 36W-43W
AND FROM 02S-01N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N69W
EXTENDS IS COLD FRONT W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF FROM 26N82W TO 22N88W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N88W
TO 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM S OF
THE FRONT FROM 25N AFFECTING THE WATERS S OF 25N. A GENTLE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A SLIGHT NW
FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS S FL AND NW CUBA BEFORE
STALLING. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 78W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW
PREVAILS W OF 78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AND STALL OVER NW CUBA ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLAND...WITH ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
37N69W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N76W TO
27N80W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PREVAILS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER AND AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1200 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
0600 UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-00N BETWEEN 36W-43W
AND FROM 02S-01N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N69W
EXTENDS IS COLD FRONT W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF FROM 26N82W TO 22N88W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N88W
TO 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM S OF
THE FRONT FROM 25N AFFECTING THE WATERS S OF 25N. A GENTLE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A SLIGHT NW
FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS S FL AND NW CUBA BEFORE
STALLING. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 78W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW
PREVAILS W OF 78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AND STALL OVER NW CUBA ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLAND...WITH ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
37N69W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N76W TO
27N80W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PREVAILS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER AND AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1200 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
0600 UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-00N BETWEEN 36W-43W
AND FROM 02S-01N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N69W
EXTENDS IS COLD FRONT W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF FROM 26N82W TO 22N88W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N88W
TO 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM S OF
THE FRONT FROM 25N AFFECTING THE WATERS S OF 25N. A GENTLE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A SLIGHT NW
FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS S FL AND NW CUBA BEFORE
STALLING. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 78W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW
PREVAILS W OF 78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AND STALL OVER NW CUBA ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLAND...WITH ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
37N69W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N76W TO
27N80W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PREVAILS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER AND AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1200 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
0600 UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-00N BETWEEN 36W-43W
AND FROM 02S-01N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N69W
EXTENDS IS COLD FRONT W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF FROM 26N82W TO 22N88W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N88W
TO 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM S OF
THE FRONT FROM 25N AFFECTING THE WATERS S OF 25N. A GENTLE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A SLIGHT NW
FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS S FL AND NW CUBA BEFORE
STALLING. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 78W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW
PREVAILS W OF 78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AND STALL OVER NW CUBA ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLAND...WITH ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
37N69W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N76W TO
27N80W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PREVAILS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER AND AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...
AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W
ON SAT MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT
ON MON EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 06N94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 08N114W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N121W...
THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA
NEAR 09N130W...THEN THE ITCZ DIPS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N106W TO 09N114W TO 07N122W TO
09N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N146W WITH ITS
CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10-
24N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN
THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS
THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 10N123W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO
INTO A 300 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 12N105W. A SMALL AREA OF
EASTERLY 20-25 KT TRADES CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 13-18N W OF
135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W THIS
EVENING. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND
SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS W
OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH COMBINED
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS
THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25
KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-
NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...
AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W
ON SAT MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT
ON MON EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 06N94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 08N114W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N121W...
THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA
NEAR 09N130W...THEN THE ITCZ DIPS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N106W TO 09N114W TO 07N122W TO
09N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N146W WITH ITS
CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10-
24N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN
THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS
THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 10N123W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO
INTO A 300 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 12N105W. A SMALL AREA OF
EASTERLY 20-25 KT TRADES CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 13-18N W OF
135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W THIS
EVENING. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND
SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS W
OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH COMBINED
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS
THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25
KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-
NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...
AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W
ON SAT MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT
ON MON EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 06N94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 08N114W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N121W...
THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA
NEAR 09N130W...THEN THE ITCZ DIPS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N106W TO 09N114W TO 07N122W TO
09N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N146W WITH ITS
CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10-
24N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN
THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS
THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 10N123W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO
INTO A 300 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 12N105W. A SMALL AREA OF
EASTERLY 20-25 KT TRADES CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 13-18N W OF
135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W THIS
EVENING. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND
SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS W
OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH COMBINED
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS
THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25
KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-
NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...
AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W
ON SAT MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT
ON MON EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 06N94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 08N114W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N121W...
THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA
NEAR 09N130W...THEN THE ITCZ DIPS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N106W TO 09N114W TO 07N122W TO
09N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N146W WITH ITS
CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10-
24N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN
THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS
THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 10N123W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO
INTO A 300 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 12N105W. A SMALL AREA OF
EASTERLY 20-25 KT TRADES CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 13-18N W OF
135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W THIS
EVENING. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND
SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS W
OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH COMBINED
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS
THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25
KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-
NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...
AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W
ON SAT MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT
ON MON EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 06N94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 08N114W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N121W...
THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA
NEAR 09N130W...THEN THE ITCZ DIPS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N106W TO 09N114W TO 07N122W TO
09N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N146W WITH ITS
CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10-
24N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN
THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS
THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 10N123W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO
INTO A 300 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 12N105W. A SMALL AREA OF
EASTERLY 20-25 KT TRADES CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 13-18N W OF
135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W THIS
EVENING. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND
SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS W
OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH COMBINED
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS
THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25
KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-
NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...
AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W
ON SAT MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT
ON MON EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 06N94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 08N114W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N121W...
THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA
NEAR 09N130W...THEN THE ITCZ DIPS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N106W TO 09N114W TO 07N122W TO
09N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N146W WITH ITS
CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10-
24N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN
THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS
THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 10N123W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO
INTO A 300 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 12N105W. A SMALL AREA OF
EASTERLY 20-25 KT TRADES CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 13-18N W OF
135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W THIS
EVENING. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND
SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS W
OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH COMBINED
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS
THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25
KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-
NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261631
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE NW COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC. SEE THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-03N BETWEEN 06W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW NEAR 35N74W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND
OVER THE GULF TO 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 75
NM SE OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO THE SW FL COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SE ACROSS S FL TO NORTHERN CUBA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE BY
06Z TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO ST. VINCENT. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE SE GULF WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WEAK
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
28N81W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 29N TO THE FL COAST. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 32N52W TO 30N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 31N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N TO 31N
BETWEEN 47W TO 54W. A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E TO
NEAR 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261631
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE NW COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC. SEE THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-03N BETWEEN 06W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW NEAR 35N74W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND
OVER THE GULF TO 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 75
NM SE OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO THE SW FL COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SE ACROSS S FL TO NORTHERN CUBA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE BY
06Z TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO ST. VINCENT. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE SE GULF WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WEAK
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
28N81W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 29N TO THE FL COAST. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 32N52W TO 30N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 31N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N TO 31N
BETWEEN 47W TO 54W. A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E TO
NEAR 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261631
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE NW COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC. SEE THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-03N BETWEEN 06W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW NEAR 35N74W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND
OVER THE GULF TO 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 75
NM SE OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO THE SW FL COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SE ACROSS S FL TO NORTHERN CUBA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE BY
06Z TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO ST. VINCENT. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE SE GULF WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WEAK
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
28N81W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 29N TO THE FL COAST. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 32N52W TO 30N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 31N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N TO 31N
BETWEEN 47W TO 54W. A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E TO
NEAR 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261631
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE NW COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC. SEE THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-03N BETWEEN 06W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW NEAR 35N74W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND
OVER THE GULF TO 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 75
NM SE OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO THE SW FL COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SE ACROSS S FL TO NORTHERN CUBA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE BY
06Z TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO ST. VINCENT. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE SE GULF WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WEAK
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
28N81W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 29N TO THE FL COAST. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 32N52W TO 30N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 31N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N TO 31N
BETWEEN 47W TO 54W. A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E TO
NEAR 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261631
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE NW COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC. SEE THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-03N BETWEEN 06W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW NEAR 35N74W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND
OVER THE GULF TO 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 75
NM SE OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO THE SW FL COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SE ACROSS S FL TO NORTHERN CUBA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE BY
06Z TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO ST. VINCENT. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE SE GULF WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WEAK
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
28N81W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 29N TO THE FL COAST. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 32N52W TO 30N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 31N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N TO 31N
BETWEEN 47W TO 54W. A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E TO
NEAR 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261631
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE NW COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC. SEE THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-03N BETWEEN 06W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW NEAR 35N74W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND
OVER THE GULF TO 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 75
NM SE OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO THE SW FL COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SE ACROSS S FL TO NORTHERN CUBA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE BY
06Z TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO ST. VINCENT. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE SE GULF WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WEAK
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
28N81W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 29N TO THE FL COAST. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 32N52W TO 30N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 31N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N TO 31N
BETWEEN 47W TO 54W. A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E TO
NEAR 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES RIDGING ALONG
EASTERN MEXICO AND BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
COMMENCE FRI EVENING AND WILL THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 10-12 FT DURING THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 010N84W TO 06N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 08N122W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N125W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 106W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W...AND
ALSO FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N144W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N120W
TO A CREST NEAR 31N138W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONE  HAS EARLIER ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 14N TO 20N W OF
133W...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS PRESENTLY DIMINISHING. THE DENSE
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS  BEING ADVECTED
TO THE NE BETWEEN 115-130W...AND FROM 12N TO 24N  AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PRESSES SWD ALONG  25N AND E OF 131W. THIS MOISTURE
IS ERODING FROM THE N AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

E OF 107W...THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AND STABLE UNDER MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE THERE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 40N138W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD TO 32N132W TO 24N122W TO  NEAR 17N114W.
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 114W. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE TROPICS IS
RESULTING IN NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 132W
WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT.  THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
WITH THE 1036 MB HIGH SHIFTING NW AND WEAKENING. IN ABOUT 12
HRS...SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW TO N SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO INTRUDE THE
NE PART OF THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 121W AND 128W. THESE SWELLS
BUILD TO 8-11 FT BY EARLY FRI N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W-131W...THEN
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO AROUND  9 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W-122W BY
EARLY SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON
SUN NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SURGE OF NE 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. THESE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO  EXPAND WESTWARD SUN INTO MON.

$$
LEWITSKY/AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT
1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER N FLORIDA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO END ON 1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
3N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 23W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N90W TO S
MEXICO AT 17N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N TO INCLUDE PORTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN W OF FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. 15-25 SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 22N88W WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF THE ISLAND MOVING W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
E OF FRONT. A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A
LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-
30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N12W. 20-25 KT NE SURFACE
WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT
1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER N FLORIDA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO END ON 1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
3N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 23W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N90W TO S
MEXICO AT 17N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N TO INCLUDE PORTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN W OF FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. 15-25 SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 22N88W WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF THE ISLAND MOVING W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
E OF FRONT. A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A
LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-
30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N12W. 20-25 KT NE SURFACE
WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT
1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER N FLORIDA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO END ON 1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
3N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 23W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N90W TO S
MEXICO AT 17N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N TO INCLUDE PORTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN W OF FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. 15-25 SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 22N88W WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF THE ISLAND MOVING W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
E OF FRONT. A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A
LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-
30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N12W. 20-25 KT NE SURFACE
WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT
1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER N FLORIDA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO END ON 1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
3N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 23W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N90W TO S
MEXICO AT 17N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N TO INCLUDE PORTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN W OF FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. 15-25 SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 22N88W WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF THE ISLAND MOVING W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
E OF FRONT. A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A
LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-
30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N12W. 20-25 KT NE SURFACE
WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N85W TO 6N96W. ITCZ FROM 6N96W TO 7N120W
TO 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 107W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF
THE AREA NEAR 16N142W TO 10N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
134W-138W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N130W TO 32N137WW. A BROAD
TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE. A 90-110 KT WLY JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM
28N116W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS HAS SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION E OF 110W.

LARGE NW SWELL IN THE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE ARE N OF 18N W OF
135W WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N85W TO 6N96W. ITCZ FROM 6N96W TO 7N120W
TO 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 107W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF
THE AREA NEAR 16N142W TO 10N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
134W-138W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N130W TO 32N137WW. A BROAD
TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE. A 90-110 KT WLY JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM
28N116W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS HAS SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION E OF 110W.

LARGE NW SWELL IN THE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE ARE N OF 18N W OF
135W WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N85W TO 6N96W. ITCZ FROM 6N96W TO 7N120W
TO 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 107W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF
THE AREA NEAR 16N142W TO 10N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
134W-138W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N130W TO 32N137WW. A BROAD
TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE. A 90-110 KT WLY JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM
28N116W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS HAS SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION E OF 110W.

LARGE NW SWELL IN THE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE ARE N OF 18N W OF
135W WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81W IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON 1800 UTC.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
4N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W TO S
MEXICO AT 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 20-30 KT
CYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO RACE TO THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEE
ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW OVER N
FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
30N W OF 80W. A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF N
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 29N12W. 20-30 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 30N75W TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81W IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON 1800 UTC.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
4N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W TO S
MEXICO AT 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 20-30 KT
CYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO RACE TO THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEE
ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW OVER N
FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
30N W OF 80W. A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF N
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 29N12W. 20-30 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 30N75W TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81W IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON 1800 UTC.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
4N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W TO S
MEXICO AT 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 20-30 KT
CYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO RACE TO THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEE
ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW OVER N
FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
30N W OF 80W. A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF N
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 29N12W. 20-30 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 30N75W TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81W IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON 1800 UTC.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
4N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W TO S
MEXICO AT 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 20-30 KT
CYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO RACE TO THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEE
ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW OVER N
FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
30N W OF 80W. A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF N
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 29N12W. 20-30 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 30N75W TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81W IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON 1800 UTC.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
4N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W TO S
MEXICO AT 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 20-30 KT
CYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO RACE TO THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEE
ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW OVER N
FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
30N W OF 80W. A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF N
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 29N12W. 20-30 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 30N75W TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81W IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON 1800 UTC.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
4N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W TO S
MEXICO AT 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 20-30 KT
CYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO RACE TO THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEE
ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW OVER N
FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
30N W OF 80W. A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF N
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 29N12W. 20-30 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 30N75W TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260328
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N95W
AND WIGGLES W TO 07N109W...THEN SW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
AT 119W THEN CONTINUES SW FROM 08N122W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N111W TO 05N129W.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 08N135W TO 22N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N144W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N120W
TO A CREST NEAR 31N139W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AT 199W AND
ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED W OF 140W. THE DENSE
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N
COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 120-138W...THEN THE PLUME
TURNS EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-31N...AND CONTINUES E WITH EVAPORATION
INDICATED AS THE PLUME CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W. EASTERLY 20-25
KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 23-27N W OF 138W WITH SEAS OF 10-11
FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE
WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING E AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT SW OF
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS
DEVELOPING FROM 11-18N W OF 133W ON THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20
KT OR LESS ON THU NIGHT. BY THEN...NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8
FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU...BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10
KT ON THU EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON
SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260328
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N95W
AND WIGGLES W TO 07N109W...THEN SW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
AT 119W THEN CONTINUES SW FROM 08N122W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N111W TO 05N129W.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 08N135W TO 22N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N144W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N120W
TO A CREST NEAR 31N139W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AT 199W AND
ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED W OF 140W. THE DENSE
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N
COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 120-138W...THEN THE PLUME
TURNS EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-31N...AND CONTINUES E WITH EVAPORATION
INDICATED AS THE PLUME CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W. EASTERLY 20-25
KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 23-27N W OF 138W WITH SEAS OF 10-11
FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE
WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING E AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT SW OF
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS
DEVELOPING FROM 11-18N W OF 133W ON THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20
KT OR LESS ON THU NIGHT. BY THEN...NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8
FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU...BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10
KT ON THU EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON
SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260328
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N95W
AND WIGGLES W TO 07N109W...THEN SW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
AT 119W THEN CONTINUES SW FROM 08N122W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N111W TO 05N129W.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 08N135W TO 22N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N144W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N120W
TO A CREST NEAR 31N139W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AT 199W AND
ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED W OF 140W. THE DENSE
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N
COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 120-138W...THEN THE PLUME
TURNS EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-31N...AND CONTINUES E WITH EVAPORATION
INDICATED AS THE PLUME CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W. EASTERLY 20-25
KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 23-27N W OF 138W WITH SEAS OF 10-11
FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE
WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING E AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT SW OF
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS
DEVELOPING FROM 11-18N W OF 133W ON THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20
KT OR LESS ON THU NIGHT. BY THEN...NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8
FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU...BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10
KT ON THU EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON
SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR. NEAR GALE
WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE WITHIN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA...
CANARIAS...AND MADEIRA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AREA OF
THE W ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF MEXICO LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NW ATLC. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W ALONG 7N16W 1N20W TO 00N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO S THE EQUATOR E OF 14W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLIPPING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A
COMPLEX SYSTEM IS AT THE SURFACE AT 25/2100 UTC AND CONSISTS OF
A 1001 MB LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF SE LOUISIANA AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 24N92W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 19N95W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NW ALONG THE THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW E ALONG 29N86W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W INTO THE W
ATLC. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE SAME
LOW...ONE N OVER MISSISSIPPI AND A SECOND E-NE OVER PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO SE GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 28N E OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE SE
CONUS. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SEA FOG COVERS THE AREA
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE SE GULF
WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES QUICKLY E-NE OF THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NW TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND THEN SWEEP EAST OF THE GULF
BY LATE THU NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N E OF 83W. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 25/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 32N60W ALONG 29N65W TO 28N73W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N78W THEN CONTINUES NW AS A WARM
FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N82W WHERE IT CONTINUES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 66W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THIS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
SAHARA WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE
CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL MOVE NE
REACHING THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE SE
SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU MORNING REACHING
FROM 32N74W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND FROM 32N67W
TO W CUBA FRI NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG 27N AND LIFTING
NORTHWARD SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR. NEAR GALE
WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE WITHIN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA...
CANARIAS...AND MADEIRA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AREA OF
THE W ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF MEXICO LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NW ATLC. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W ALONG 7N16W 1N20W TO 00N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO S THE EQUATOR E OF 14W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLIPPING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A
COMPLEX SYSTEM IS AT THE SURFACE AT 25/2100 UTC AND CONSISTS OF
A 1001 MB LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF SE LOUISIANA AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 24N92W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 19N95W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NW ALONG THE THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW E ALONG 29N86W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W INTO THE W
ATLC. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE SAME
LOW...ONE N OVER MISSISSIPPI AND A SECOND E-NE OVER PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO SE GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 28N E OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE SE
CONUS. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SEA FOG COVERS THE AREA
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE SE GULF
WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES QUICKLY E-NE OF THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NW TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND THEN SWEEP EAST OF THE GULF
BY LATE THU NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N E OF 83W. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 25/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 32N60W ALONG 29N65W TO 28N73W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N78W THEN CONTINUES NW AS A WARM
FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N82W WHERE IT CONTINUES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 66W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THIS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
SAHARA WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE
CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL MOVE NE
REACHING THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE SE
SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU MORNING REACHING
FROM 32N74W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND FROM 32N67W
TO W CUBA FRI NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG 27N AND LIFTING
NORTHWARD SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 252341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR. NEAR GALE
WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE WITHIN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA...
CANARIAS...AND MADEIRA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AREA OF
THE W ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF MEXICO LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NW ATLC. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W ALONG 7N16W 1N20W TO 00N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO S THE EQUATOR E OF 14W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLIPPING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A
COMPLEX SYSTEM IS AT THE SURFACE AT 25/2100 UTC AND CONSISTS OF
A 1001 MB LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF SE LOUISIANA AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 24N92W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 19N95W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NW ALONG THE THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW E ALONG 29N86W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W INTO THE W
ATLC. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE SAME
LOW...ONE N OVER MISSISSIPPI AND A SECOND E-NE OVER PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO SE GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 28N E OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE SE
CONUS. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SEA FOG COVERS THE AREA
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE SE GULF
WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES QUICKLY E-NE OF THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NW TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND THEN SWEEP EAST OF THE GULF
BY LATE THU NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N E OF 83W. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 25/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 32N60W ALONG 29N65W TO 28N73W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N78W THEN CONTINUES NW AS A WARM
FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N82W WHERE IT CONTINUES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 66W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THIS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
SAHARA WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE
CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL MOVE NE
REACHING THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE SE
SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU MORNING REACHING
FROM 32N74W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND FROM 32N67W
TO W CUBA FRI NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG 27N AND LIFTING
NORTHWARD SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR. NEAR GALE
WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE WITHIN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA...
CANARIAS...AND MADEIRA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AREA OF
THE W ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF MEXICO LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NW ATLC. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W ALONG 7N16W 1N20W TO 00N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO S THE EQUATOR E OF 14W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLIPPING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A
COMPLEX SYSTEM IS AT THE SURFACE AT 25/2100 UTC AND CONSISTS OF
A 1001 MB LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF SE LOUISIANA AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 24N92W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 19N95W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NW ALONG THE THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW E ALONG 29N86W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W INTO THE W
ATLC. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE SAME
LOW...ONE N OVER MISSISSIPPI AND A SECOND E-NE OVER PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO SE GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 28N E OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE SE
CONUS. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SEA FOG COVERS THE AREA
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE SE GULF
WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES QUICKLY E-NE OF THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NW TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND THEN SWEEP EAST OF THE GULF
BY LATE THU NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N E OF 83W. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 25/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 32N60W ALONG 29N65W TO 28N73W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N78W THEN CONTINUES NW AS A WARM
FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N82W WHERE IT CONTINUES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 66W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THIS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
SAHARA WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE
CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL MOVE NE
REACHING THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE SE
SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU MORNING REACHING
FROM 32N74W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND FROM 32N67W
TO W CUBA FRI NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG 27N AND LIFTING
NORTHWARD SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N92W
AND EXTENDS W TO 06N110W...THEN TURNS SW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
AT 118W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 03N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N113W TO 03.5N128W. THE EMBEDDED
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N118W TO 12N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE N OF 08N WITHIN 150 NM W OF TROUGH.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 06N139W TO 20N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N143W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 22N117W
TO A CREST THAT BECAME UNSTABLE AND COLLAPSED SE TO NEAR
29N134W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND ANOTHER  LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT HAS MOVED W OF 140W. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE
AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS
BETWEEN 120-138W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-
32N...AND CONTINUES E WITH EVAPORATION INDICATED AS THE PLUME
CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W. EASTERLY 20-25
KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 20-26N W OF 133W WITH SEAS OF 9-12
FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE
WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING E AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT SW OF
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS
DEVELOPING FROM 10-16N W OF 133W ON THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20
KT OR LESS ON THU NIGHT. BY THEN...NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8
FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 29N AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU...BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10
KT ON THU EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON
SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N92W
AND EXTENDS W TO 06N110W...THEN TURNS SW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
AT 118W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 03N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N113W TO 03.5N128W. THE EMBEDDED
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N118W TO 12N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE N OF 08N WITHIN 150 NM W OF TROUGH.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 06N139W TO 20N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N143W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 22N117W
TO A CREST THAT BECAME UNSTABLE AND COLLAPSED SE TO NEAR
29N134W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND ANOTHER  LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT HAS MOVED W OF 140W. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE
AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS
BETWEEN 120-138W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-
32N...AND CONTINUES E WITH EVAPORATION INDICATED AS THE PLUME
CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W. EASTERLY 20-25
KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 20-26N W OF 133W WITH SEAS OF 9-12
FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE
WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING E AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT SW OF
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS
DEVELOPING FROM 10-16N W OF 133W ON THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20
KT OR LESS ON THU NIGHT. BY THEN...NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8
FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 29N AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU...BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10
KT ON THU EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON
SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N92W
AND EXTENDS W TO 06N110W...THEN TURNS SW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
AT 118W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 03N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N113W TO 03.5N128W. THE EMBEDDED
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N118W TO 12N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE N OF 08N WITHIN 150 NM W OF TROUGH.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 06N139W TO 20N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N143W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 22N117W
TO A CREST THAT BECAME UNSTABLE AND COLLAPSED SE TO NEAR
29N134W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND ANOTHER  LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT HAS MOVED W OF 140W. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE
AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS
BETWEEN 120-138W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-
32N...AND CONTINUES E WITH EVAPORATION INDICATED AS THE PLUME
CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W. EASTERLY 20-25
KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 20-26N W OF 133W WITH SEAS OF 9-12
FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE
WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING E AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT SW OF
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS
DEVELOPING FROM 10-16N W OF 133W ON THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20
KT OR LESS ON THU NIGHT. BY THEN...NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8
FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 29N AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU...BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10
KT ON THU EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON
SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N92W
AND EXTENDS W TO 06N110W...THEN TURNS SW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
AT 118W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 03N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N113W TO 03.5N128W. THE EMBEDDED
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N118W TO 12N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE N OF 08N WITHIN 150 NM W OF TROUGH.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 06N139W TO 20N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N143W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 22N117W
TO A CREST THAT BECAME UNSTABLE AND COLLAPSED SE TO NEAR
29N134W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND ANOTHER  LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT HAS MOVED W OF 140W. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE
AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS
BETWEEN 120-138W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-
32N...AND CONTINUES E WITH EVAPORATION INDICATED AS THE PLUME
CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W. EASTERLY 20-25
KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 20-26N W OF 133W WITH SEAS OF 9-12
FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE
WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING E AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT SW OF
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS
DEVELOPING FROM 10-16N W OF 133W ON THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20
KT OR LESS ON THU NIGHT. BY THEN...NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8
FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 29N AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU...BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10
KT ON THU EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON
SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N92W
AND EXTENDS W TO 06N110W...THEN TURNS SW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
AT 118W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 03N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N113W TO 03.5N128W. THE EMBEDDED
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N118W TO 12N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE N OF 08N WITHIN 150 NM W OF TROUGH.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 06N139W TO 20N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N143W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 22N117W
TO A CREST THAT BECAME UNSTABLE AND COLLAPSED SE TO NEAR
29N134W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND ANOTHER  LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT HAS MOVED W OF 140W. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE
AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS
BETWEEN 120-138W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-
32N...AND CONTINUES E WITH EVAPORATION INDICATED AS THE PLUME
CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W. EASTERLY 20-25
KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 20-26N W OF 133W WITH SEAS OF 9-12
FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE
WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING E AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT SW OF
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS
DEVELOPING FROM 10-16N W OF 133W ON THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20
KT OR LESS ON THU NIGHT. BY THEN...NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8
FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 29N AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU...BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10
KT ON THU EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON
SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
SLACKENED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE
AREA...LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...AND RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND YET
AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SW N ATLC...DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RAPIDLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT N OF 27N E OF FLORIDA...SPREADING EASTWARD AS
THE LOW AND FRONT PROGRESS...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FAR E ATLC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE NW AFRICAN COAST IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF MADIERA...AGADIR
...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W CURVING SW-W TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 24W AND
CONTINUING WESTWARD TO 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM S OF 4N BETWEEN
15W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRES AT 1007 MB HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE-E FROM THE LOW TO 28N93W THEN SE TO 27N88W
AND CONTINUES EASTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST S OF TAMPA
BAY FLORIDA. A TROUGH OR DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW TO 23N97W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO HELPING TO DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NE AND BY 24 HOURS WILL
ALREADY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR THE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY
FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SE GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
THE NW AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS.

THE TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OF THE LOW WILL
BE DRAGGED TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N90W TO 22N94W BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W BY THU
MORNING...SLOWLY SLIDING SE OF THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW-N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE PULSING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA...MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...AND ALSO SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
THE E. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
UNDER W-NW FLOW. E-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BY THU MORNING AND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THAT FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE ISLAND.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS ANY FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 28N79W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN 180-240 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO THE SW-W NEAR 25N73W. MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN
ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHERE SEAS
ARE UP TO 8-11 FT. LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NE-E AND WILL END UP JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY THU MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS WHICH IS DISCUSSED
MORE ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS FROM 12N49W TO 04N52W. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AS
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT CAYENNE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER
THE AREA AND INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND
5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS MOVING COMPLETELY INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA FRI MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
SLACKENED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE
AREA...LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...AND RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND YET
AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SW N ATLC...DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RAPIDLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT N OF 27N E OF FLORIDA...SPREADING EASTWARD AS
THE LOW AND FRONT PROGRESS...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FAR E ATLC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE NW AFRICAN COAST IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF MADIERA...AGADIR
...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W CURVING SW-W TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 24W AND
CONTINUING WESTWARD TO 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM S OF 4N BETWEEN
15W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRES AT 1007 MB HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE-E FROM THE LOW TO 28N93W THEN SE TO 27N88W
AND CONTINUES EASTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST S OF TAMPA
BAY FLORIDA. A TROUGH OR DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW TO 23N97W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO HELPING TO DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NE AND BY 24 HOURS WILL
ALREADY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR THE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY
FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SE GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
THE NW AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS.

THE TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OF THE LOW WILL
BE DRAGGED TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N90W TO 22N94W BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W BY THU
MORNING...SLOWLY SLIDING SE OF THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW-N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE PULSING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA...MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...AND ALSO SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
THE E. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
UNDER W-NW FLOW. E-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BY THU MORNING AND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THAT FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE ISLAND.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS ANY FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 28N79W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN 180-240 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO THE SW-W NEAR 25N73W. MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN
ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHERE SEAS
ARE UP TO 8-11 FT. LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NE-E AND WILL END UP JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY THU MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS WHICH IS DISCUSSED
MORE ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS FROM 12N49W TO 04N52W. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AS
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT CAYENNE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER
THE AREA AND INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND
5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS MOVING COMPLETELY INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA FRI MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
SLACKENED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE
AREA...LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...AND RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND YET
AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SW N ATLC...DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RAPIDLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT N OF 27N E OF FLORIDA...SPREADING EASTWARD AS
THE LOW AND FRONT PROGRESS...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FAR E ATLC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE NW AFRICAN COAST IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF MADIERA...AGADIR
...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W CURVING SW-W TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 24W AND
CONTINUING WESTWARD TO 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM S OF 4N BETWEEN
15W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRES AT 1007 MB HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE-E FROM THE LOW TO 28N93W THEN SE TO 27N88W
AND CONTINUES EASTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST S OF TAMPA
BAY FLORIDA. A TROUGH OR DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW TO 23N97W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO HELPING TO DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NE AND BY 24 HOURS WILL
ALREADY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR THE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY
FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SE GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
THE NW AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS.

THE TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OF THE LOW WILL
BE DRAGGED TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N90W TO 22N94W BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W BY THU
MORNING...SLOWLY SLIDING SE OF THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW-N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE PULSING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA...MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...AND ALSO SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
THE E. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
UNDER W-NW FLOW. E-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BY THU MORNING AND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THAT FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE ISLAND.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS ANY FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 28N79W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN 180-240 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO THE SW-W NEAR 25N73W. MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN
ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHERE SEAS
ARE UP TO 8-11 FT. LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NE-E AND WILL END UP JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY THU MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS WHICH IS DISCUSSED
MORE ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS FROM 12N49W TO 04N52W. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AS
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT CAYENNE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER
THE AREA AND INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND
5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS MOVING COMPLETELY INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA FRI MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
SLACKENED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE
AREA...LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...AND RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND YET
AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SW N ATLC...DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RAPIDLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT N OF 27N E OF FLORIDA...SPREADING EASTWARD AS
THE LOW AND FRONT PROGRESS...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FAR E ATLC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE NW AFRICAN COAST IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF MADIERA...AGADIR
...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W CURVING SW-W TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 24W AND
CONTINUING WESTWARD TO 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM S OF 4N BETWEEN
15W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRES AT 1007 MB HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE-E FROM THE LOW TO 28N93W THEN SE TO 27N88W
AND CONTINUES EASTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST S OF TAMPA
BAY FLORIDA. A TROUGH OR DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW TO 23N97W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO HELPING TO DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NE AND BY 24 HOURS WILL
ALREADY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR THE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY
FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SE GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
THE NW AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS.

THE TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OF THE LOW WILL
BE DRAGGED TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N90W TO 22N94W BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W BY THU
MORNING...SLOWLY SLIDING SE OF THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW-N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE PULSING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA...MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...AND ALSO SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
THE E. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
UNDER W-NW FLOW. E-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BY THU MORNING AND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THAT FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE ISLAND.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS ANY FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 28N79W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN 180-240 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO THE SW-W NEAR 25N73W. MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN
ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHERE SEAS
ARE UP TO 8-11 FT. LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NE-E AND WILL END UP JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY THU MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS WHICH IS DISCUSSED
MORE ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS FROM 12N49W TO 04N52W. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AS
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT CAYENNE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER
THE AREA AND INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND
5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS MOVING COMPLETELY INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA FRI MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
SLACKENED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE
AREA...LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...AND RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND YET
AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SW N ATLC...DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RAPIDLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT N OF 27N E OF FLORIDA...SPREADING EASTWARD AS
THE LOW AND FRONT PROGRESS...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FAR E ATLC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE NW AFRICAN COAST IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF MADIERA...AGADIR
...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W CURVING SW-W TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 24W AND
CONTINUING WESTWARD TO 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM S OF 4N BETWEEN
15W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRES AT 1007 MB HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE-E FROM THE LOW TO 28N93W THEN SE TO 27N88W
AND CONTINUES EASTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST S OF TAMPA
BAY FLORIDA. A TROUGH OR DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW TO 23N97W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO HELPING TO DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NE AND BY 24 HOURS WILL
ALREADY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR THE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY
FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SE GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
THE NW AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS.

THE TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OF THE LOW WILL
BE DRAGGED TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N90W TO 22N94W BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W BY THU
MORNING...SLOWLY SLIDING SE OF THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW-N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE PULSING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA...MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...AND ALSO SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
THE E. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
UNDER W-NW FLOW. E-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BY THU MORNING AND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THAT FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE ISLAND.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS ANY FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 28N79W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN 180-240 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO THE SW-W NEAR 25N73W. MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN
ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHERE SEAS
ARE UP TO 8-11 FT. LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NE-E AND WILL END UP JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY THU MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS WHICH IS DISCUSSED
MORE ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS FROM 12N49W TO 04N52W. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AS
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT CAYENNE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER
THE AREA AND INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND
5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS MOVING COMPLETELY INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA FRI MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
SLACKENED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE
AREA...LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...AND RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND YET
AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SW N ATLC...DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RAPIDLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT N OF 27N E OF FLORIDA...SPREADING EASTWARD AS
THE LOW AND FRONT PROGRESS...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FAR E ATLC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE NW AFRICAN COAST IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF MADIERA...AGADIR
...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W CURVING SW-W TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 24W AND
CONTINUING WESTWARD TO 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM S OF 4N BETWEEN
15W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRES AT 1007 MB HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE-E FROM THE LOW TO 28N93W THEN SE TO 27N88W
AND CONTINUES EASTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST S OF TAMPA
BAY FLORIDA. A TROUGH OR DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW TO 23N97W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO HELPING TO DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NE AND BY 24 HOURS WILL
ALREADY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR THE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY
FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SE GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
THE NW AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS.

THE TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OF THE LOW WILL
BE DRAGGED TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N90W TO 22N94W BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W BY THU
MORNING...SLOWLY SLIDING SE OF THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW-N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE PULSING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA...MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...AND ALSO SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
THE E. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
UNDER W-NW FLOW. E-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BY THU MORNING AND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THAT FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE ISLAND.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS ANY FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 28N79W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN 180-240 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO THE SW-W NEAR 25N73W. MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN
ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHERE SEAS
ARE UP TO 8-11 FT. LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NE-E AND WILL END UP JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY THU MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS WHICH IS DISCUSSED
MORE ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS FROM 12N49W TO 04N52W. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AS
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT CAYENNE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER
THE AREA AND INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND
5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS MOVING COMPLETELY INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA FRI MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 06N88W TO 06N108W TO 06N115W
WHERE IT IS INTERRUPTED BY A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 05N117W TO
10N115W. IT RESUMES AT 04N120W SW TO 01N130W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ...HOWEVER
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE
TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 129W WITH A WELL DEFINED
UPPER CYCLONE EMBEDDED NEAR 15N142W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 18N W OF 135W.
THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS
BEING ADVECTED N COVERING THE WATERS BETWEEN 122W-140W. SOME OF
THIS UPPER MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...IS
TURNING EASTWARD FROM 25N TO 32N AND CONTINUES EASTWARD TO
ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND EVENTUALLY
FEEDING INTO ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME OVER TEXAS.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM SMALL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
VENEZUELA TO 10N89W AND TO 13N106W. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS EXTENDS SSW
TO NEAR 22N102W. CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THIS TROUGH IS CHANNELING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE EASTWARD TO ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
NOTED OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF MEXICO.

THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N117W TO 10N115W WILL SHIFT TO NEAR
125W THU...AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES 138W FRI. BOTH RAPID SCAT
AND ASCAT PASSES REVEALED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-12
FT FROM 22N TO 25N W OF 133W. THE MODEL FORECAST TRENDS IS FOR
THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THU WHILE
DIMINISHING AS THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA
AT 42N133W ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N129W...AND
CONTINUES SEWD TO 26N120W AND TO NEAR 19N116W. THE PRES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TO ITS SW IS
PROMOTING TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN
MIXED SE AND NW SWELL FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 119W AND 135W. THE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL
WATERS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 132-139W LATE NIGHT...THEN SHRINK IN
AREAL COVERAGE FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 138W BY THU NIGHT...AND
DIMINISH TO 15 KT FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE
SWELL AT THAT TIME.

EXPECT NW-N SWELLS TO BEGIN ENTERING THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE
AREA FRI BRINGING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 24N TO 27N. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX LATE WED NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ABATED FROM THE TIME
BEING AS THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT HAS DISAPPEARED. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN
ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENT WILL BE PRECEDED BY N WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEGINNING FRI
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 06N88W TO 06N108W TO 06N115W
WHERE IT IS INTERRUPTED BY A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 05N117W TO
10N115W. IT RESUMES AT 04N120W SW TO 01N130W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ...HOWEVER
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE
TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 129W WITH A WELL DEFINED
UPPER CYCLONE EMBEDDED NEAR 15N142W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 18N W OF 135W.
THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS
BEING ADVECTED N COVERING THE WATERS BETWEEN 122W-140W. SOME OF
THIS UPPER MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...IS
TURNING EASTWARD FROM 25N TO 32N AND CONTINUES EASTWARD TO
ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND EVENTUALLY
FEEDING INTO ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME OVER TEXAS.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM SMALL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
VENEZUELA TO 10N89W AND TO 13N106W. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS EXTENDS SSW
TO NEAR 22N102W. CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THIS TROUGH IS CHANNELING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE EASTWARD TO ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
NOTED OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF MEXICO.

THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N117W TO 10N115W WILL SHIFT TO NEAR
125W THU...AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES 138W FRI. BOTH RAPID SCAT
AND ASCAT PASSES REVEALED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-12
FT FROM 22N TO 25N W OF 133W. THE MODEL FORECAST TRENDS IS FOR
THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THU WHILE
DIMINISHING AS THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA
AT 42N133W ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N129W...AND
CONTINUES SEWD TO 26N120W AND TO NEAR 19N116W. THE PRES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TO ITS SW IS
PROMOTING TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN
MIXED SE AND NW SWELL FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 119W AND 135W. THE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL
WATERS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 132-139W LATE NIGHT...THEN SHRINK IN
AREAL COVERAGE FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 138W BY THU NIGHT...AND
DIMINISH TO 15 KT FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE
SWELL AT THAT TIME.

EXPECT NW-N SWELLS TO BEGIN ENTERING THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE
AREA FRI BRINGING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 24N TO 27N. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX LATE WED NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ABATED FROM THE TIME
BEING AS THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT HAS DISAPPEARED. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN
ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENT WILL BE PRECEDED BY N WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEGINNING FRI
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT
1200 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC THU AND END
AGAIN AT 0000 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR WITH A
DEVELOPING GALE IN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA AND CANARIAS. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE AREA OF MADIERA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON THU FEB 26 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON THU FEB 26 1800 UTC. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 7N12W TO 0N20W TO 1N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 0N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 4S-5N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
THE ITCZ FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
26N88W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE WESTERN GULF AT 26N95W TO
E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF N OF FRONTS. 5-10 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONTS. PATCHY FOG IS REPORTED AT KEY WEST
FLORIDA AND FT MYERS FLORIDA. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE
FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE N GULF N OF 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT TO
THE E-SE AS A COLD FRONT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING
OVER THE SE GULF THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 72W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W
TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 39N19W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
24N35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE IS
FORECAST OVER THE W ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER FRONT. SEE
ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT
1200 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC THU AND END
AGAIN AT 0000 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR WITH A
DEVELOPING GALE IN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA AND CANARIAS. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE AREA OF MADIERA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON THU FEB 26 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON THU FEB 26 1800 UTC. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 7N12W TO 0N20W TO 1N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 0N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 4S-5N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
THE ITCZ FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
26N88W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE WESTERN GULF AT 26N95W TO
E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF N OF FRONTS. 5-10 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONTS. PATCHY FOG IS REPORTED AT KEY WEST
FLORIDA AND FT MYERS FLORIDA. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE
FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE N GULF N OF 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT TO
THE E-SE AS A COLD FRONT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING
OVER THE SE GULF THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 72W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W
TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 39N19W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
24N35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE IS
FORECAST OVER THE W ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER FRONT. SEE
ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 5N90W TO 4N120W TO 00N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTRION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 114W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF
THE AREA15N141W TO 5N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-15N W 136W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO
11N112W. A BROAD TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL
EXTENDS FROM RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ACROSS THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS HAS
SUPRESSED CONVECTION E OF 110W.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE N AND A TROUGH TO THE S
HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT AND ELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED 20
TO 25 KT FROM 19N-27N W OF 130W. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
E AND THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH DECREASING WINDS. HOWEVER
LARGE SWELLS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 5N90W TO 4N120W TO 00N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTRION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 114W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF
THE AREA15N141W TO 5N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-15N W 136W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO
11N112W. A BROAD TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL
EXTENDS FROM RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ACROSS THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS HAS
SUPRESSED CONVECTION E OF 110W.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE N AND A TROUGH TO THE S
HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT AND ELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED 20
TO 25 KT FROM 19N-27N W OF 130W. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
E AND THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH DECREASING WINDS. HOWEVER
LARGE SWELLS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 5N90W TO 4N120W TO 00N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTRION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 114W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF
THE AREA15N141W TO 5N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-15N W 136W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO
11N112W. A BROAD TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL
EXTENDS FROM RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ACROSS THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS HAS
SUPRESSED CONVECTION E OF 110W.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE N AND A TROUGH TO THE S
HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT AND ELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED 20
TO 25 KT FROM 19N-27N W OF 130W. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
E AND THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH DECREASING WINDS. HOWEVER
LARGE SWELLS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 5N90W TO 4N120W TO 00N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTRION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 114W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF
THE AREA15N141W TO 5N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-15N W 136W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO
11N112W. A BROAD TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL
EXTENDS FROM RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ACROSS THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS HAS
SUPRESSED CONVECTION E OF 110W.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE N AND A TROUGH TO THE S
HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT AND ELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED 20
TO 25 KT FROM 19N-27N W OF 130W. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
E AND THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH DECREASING WINDS. HOWEVER
LARGE SWELLS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.

$$
DGS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT
1200 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC THU AND END
AGAIN AT 0000 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR WITH A
DEVELOPING GALE IN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA AND CANARIAS. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE AREA OF MADIERA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON THU FEB 26 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 76W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON THU FEB 26 1800 UTC. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
5N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
ITCZ FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
25N86W TO THE WESTERN GULF AT 25N93W TO E OF COATZACOALCOS
MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. 10-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. PATCHY FOG IS REPORTED AT KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN
LIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT WED MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT
TO THE E-SE AS A COLD FRONT WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE SE GULF THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 60W-78W N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY
WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W
TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 39N19W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
24N35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE IS
FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER FRONT. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT
1200 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC THU AND END
AGAIN AT 0000 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR WITH A
DEVELOPING GALE IN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA AND CANARIAS. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE AREA OF MADIERA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON THU FEB 26 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 76W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON THU FEB 26 1800 UTC. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
5N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
ITCZ FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
25N86W TO THE WESTERN GULF AT 25N93W TO E OF COATZACOALCOS
MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. 10-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. PATCHY FOG IS REPORTED AT KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN
LIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT WED MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT
TO THE E-SE AS A COLD FRONT WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE SE GULF THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 60W-78W N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY
WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W
TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 39N19W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
24N35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE IS
FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER FRONT. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT
1200 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC THU AND END
AGAIN AT 0000 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR WITH A
DEVELOPING GALE IN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA AND CANARIAS. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE AREA OF MADIERA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON THU FEB 26 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 76W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON THU FEB 26 1800 UTC. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
5N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
ITCZ FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
25N86W TO THE WESTERN GULF AT 25N93W TO E OF COATZACOALCOS
MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. 10-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. PATCHY FOG IS REPORTED AT KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN
LIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT WED MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT
TO THE E-SE AS A COLD FRONT WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE SE GULF THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 60W-78W N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY
WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W
TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 39N19W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
24N35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE IS
FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER FRONT. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT
1200 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC THU AND END
AGAIN AT 0000 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR WITH A
DEVELOPING GALE IN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA AND CANARIAS. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE AREA OF MADIERA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON THU FEB 26 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 76W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON THU FEB 26 1800 UTC. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
5N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
ITCZ FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
25N86W TO THE WESTERN GULF AT 25N93W TO E OF COATZACOALCOS
MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. 10-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. PATCHY FOG IS REPORTED AT KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN
LIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT WED MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT
TO THE E-SE AS A COLD FRONT WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE SE GULF THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 60W-78W N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY
WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W
TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 39N19W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
24N35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE IS
FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER FRONT. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250317
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 06N90W TO 04N106W...THEN NW TO
06N113W TO 01N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N109W TO 05N124W.

THE ITCZ IS INTERRUPTED TO THE W OF 132W BY TWO N TO S
ORIENTATED TROUGHS. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N125W
TO 15N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 20N130W. THE
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N140W TO 25N138W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 07N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 130W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER
CYCLONE EMBEDDED NEAR 15N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 20N117W TO A CREST NEAR
35N130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH TWO N TO
S ORIENTATED TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DENSE DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N COVERING
THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 122-140W. SOME OF THIS UPPER
MOISTURE TURNS E BETWEEN 25-30N...AND CONTINUES E AND LATER NE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO ANOTHER
MOISTURE PLUME OVER TEXAS.

THE WESTERNMOST LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W EARLY WED...AND THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THU. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF
ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINE FROM 24N140W TO 24N135W TO
17.5N128W. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON WED
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 32N133W TO 13N105W...WITH
THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 7-
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 11-19N
BETWEEN 133-140W EARLY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON
THU NIGHT. BY THEN NORTHERLY WINDS NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF
28N BETWEEN 118-130W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE AFFECTED AREA
TO SHIFT TO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 27N LATER TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR
LESS ON WED AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT ON THU
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-230 KT WINDS AT SUNSET ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
IS FLUCTUATING FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT AND SUGGESTS THE NEXT
GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250317
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 06N90W TO 04N106W...THEN NW TO
06N113W TO 01N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N109W TO 05N124W.

THE ITCZ IS INTERRUPTED TO THE W OF 132W BY TWO N TO S
ORIENTATED TROUGHS. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N125W
TO 15N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 20N130W. THE
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N140W TO 25N138W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 07N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 130W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER
CYCLONE EMBEDDED NEAR 15N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 20N117W TO A CREST NEAR
35N130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH TWO N TO
S ORIENTATED TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DENSE DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N COVERING
THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 122-140W. SOME OF THIS UPPER
MOISTURE TURNS E BETWEEN 25-30N...AND CONTINUES E AND LATER NE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO ANOTHER
MOISTURE PLUME OVER TEXAS.

THE WESTERNMOST LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W EARLY WED...AND THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THU. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF
ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINE FROM 24N140W TO 24N135W TO
17.5N128W. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON WED
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 32N133W TO 13N105W...WITH
THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 7-
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 11-19N
BETWEEN 133-140W EARLY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON
THU NIGHT. BY THEN NORTHERLY WINDS NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF
28N BETWEEN 118-130W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE AFFECTED AREA
TO SHIFT TO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 27N LATER TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR
LESS ON WED AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT ON THU
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-230 KT WINDS AT SUNSET ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
IS FLUCTUATING FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT AND SUGGESTS THE NEXT
GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250317
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 06N90W TO 04N106W...THEN NW TO
06N113W TO 01N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N109W TO 05N124W.

THE ITCZ IS INTERRUPTED TO THE W OF 132W BY TWO N TO S
ORIENTATED TROUGHS. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N125W
TO 15N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 20N130W. THE
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N140W TO 25N138W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 07N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 130W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER
CYCLONE EMBEDDED NEAR 15N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 20N117W TO A CREST NEAR
35N130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH TWO N TO
S ORIENTATED TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DENSE DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N COVERING
THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 122-140W. SOME OF THIS UPPER
MOISTURE TURNS E BETWEEN 25-30N...AND CONTINUES E AND LATER NE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO ANOTHER
MOISTURE PLUME OVER TEXAS.

THE WESTERNMOST LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W EARLY WED...AND THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THU. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF
ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINE FROM 24N140W TO 24N135W TO
17.5N128W. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON WED
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 32N133W TO 13N105W...WITH
THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 7-
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 11-19N
BETWEEN 133-140W EARLY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON
THU NIGHT. BY THEN NORTHERLY WINDS NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF
28N BETWEEN 118-130W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE AFFECTED AREA
TO SHIFT TO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 27N LATER TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR
LESS ON WED AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT ON THU
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-230 KT WINDS AT SUNSET ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
IS FLUCTUATING FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT AND SUGGESTS THE NEXT
GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250317
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 06N90W TO 04N106W...THEN NW TO
06N113W TO 01N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N109W TO 05N124W.

THE ITCZ IS INTERRUPTED TO THE W OF 132W BY TWO N TO S
ORIENTATED TROUGHS. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N125W
TO 15N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 20N130W. THE
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N140W TO 25N138W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 07N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 130W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER
CYCLONE EMBEDDED NEAR 15N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 20N117W TO A CREST NEAR
35N130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH TWO N TO
S ORIENTATED TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DENSE DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N COVERING
THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 122-140W. SOME OF THIS UPPER
MOISTURE TURNS E BETWEEN 25-30N...AND CONTINUES E AND LATER NE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO ANOTHER
MOISTURE PLUME OVER TEXAS.

THE WESTERNMOST LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W EARLY WED...AND THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THU. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF
ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINE FROM 24N140W TO 24N135W TO
17.5N128W. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON WED
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 32N133W TO 13N105W...WITH
THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 7-
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 11-19N
BETWEEN 133-140W EARLY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON
THU NIGHT. BY THEN NORTHERLY WINDS NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF
28N BETWEEN 118-130W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE AFFECTED AREA
TO SHIFT TO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 27N LATER TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR
LESS ON WED AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT ON THU
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-230 KT WINDS AT SUNSET ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
IS FLUCTUATING FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT AND SUGGESTS THE NEXT
GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 242355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN THU
NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR WITH A
DEVELOPING GALE IN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA AND CANARIAS. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE AREA OF MADIERA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARING WILL GO INTO EFFECT WED EVENING FOR THE AREA OF
THE W ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
FROM 31N80W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE. THE
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W ALONG 5N13W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N
TO S THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE
NW ATLC AND IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
FAR N GULF. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY
ALONG 26N87W 25N92W TO 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 86W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N AND W OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH OVER E TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER TONIGHT THEN WILL LIFT
NW AS A WARM FRONT WED MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT TO THE E-
SE AS A COLD FRONT THE REMAINDER OF WED THROUGH WED NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SE GULF THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL
LINGER THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALSO COVERING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE W ATLC IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT SE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL
PULSE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INCREASING TO FRESH
TO STRONG FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD THU AND FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N63W TO 30N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
29N71W THEN CONTINUES NW AS A WARM FRONT TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
32N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS IS ADVECTING UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
BETWEEN 55W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
WESTERN SAHARA THAT WILL SPREAD S TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TONIGHT.
THE W ATLC 1012 MB LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC
TONIGHT THEN WILL REACH FROM 32N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
LATE TUE NIGHT AND FROM 32N62W TO 27N77W WED AFTERNOON WHERE IT
WILL STALL THEN DISSIPATE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
N FLORIDA AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS INTO
THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N74W TO S FLORIDA BY THU EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242145
TWDEP

ZCZC MIAWRKEP 240230
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY SUNSET TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT
OR LESS LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING FROM ONE RUN TO
THE NEXT AND SUGGESTS THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 07N87W TO 04N104W TO 05N110W TO
03N120W...AND THEN IS INTERRUPTED BY TWO EMBEDDED N TO S
ORIENTATED TROUGHS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N78W AND 07.5N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N108W TO 05N127W. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 04N123W TO 18N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N124W TO 20N126W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N126W. THE
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N138W TO 24N135W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 06N140W TO 13N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 129W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N115W TO A CREST NEAR
35N131W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TWO N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE
DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED
N COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 122-139W. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE TURNS E BETWEEN 25-30N...AND CONTINUES E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND FEEDS INTO ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME OVER
TEXAS.

THE WESTERNMOST LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W EARLY WED...AND THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THU. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF
ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINE FROM 22N140W TO 23N135W TO
18N126W. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON WED
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W...WITH
THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 7-
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEAR 15N135W ON THU AND THU NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON FRI. BY THEN NORTHERLY WINDS NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 130-115W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE AFFECTED AREA
TO SHIFT TO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 26N LATER TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ON
WED AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT ON THU
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242145
TWDEP

ZCZC MIAWRKEP 240230
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY SUNSET TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT
OR LESS LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING FROM ONE RUN TO
THE NEXT AND SUGGESTS THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 07N87W TO 04N104W TO 05N110W TO
03N120W...AND THEN IS INTERRUPTED BY TWO EMBEDDED N TO S
ORIENTATED TROUGHS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N78W AND 07.5N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N108W TO 05N127W. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 04N123W TO 18N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N124W TO 20N126W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N126W. THE
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N138W TO 24N135W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 06N140W TO 13N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 129W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N115W TO A CREST NEAR
35N131W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TWO N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE
DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED
N COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 122-139W. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE TURNS E BETWEEN 25-30N...AND CONTINUES E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND FEEDS INTO ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME OVER
TEXAS.

THE WESTERNMOST LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W EARLY WED...AND THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THU. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF
ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINE FROM 22N140W TO 23N135W TO
18N126W. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON WED
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W...WITH
THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 7-
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEAR 15N135W ON THU AND THU NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON FRI. BY THEN NORTHERLY WINDS NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 130-115W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE AFFECTED AREA
TO SHIFT TO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 26N LATER TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ON
WED AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT ON THU
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242145
TWDEP

ZCZC MIAWRKEP 240230
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY SUNSET TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT
OR LESS LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING FROM ONE RUN TO
THE NEXT AND SUGGESTS THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 07N87W TO 04N104W TO 05N110W TO
03N120W...AND THEN IS INTERRUPTED BY TWO EMBEDDED N TO S
ORIENTATED TROUGHS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N78W AND 07.5N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N108W TO 05N127W. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 04N123W TO 18N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N124W TO 20N126W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N126W. THE
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N138W TO 24N135W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 06N140W TO 13N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 129W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N115W TO A CREST NEAR
35N131W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TWO N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE
DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED
N COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 122-139W. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE TURNS E BETWEEN 25-30N...AND CONTINUES E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND FEEDS INTO ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME OVER
TEXAS.

THE WESTERNMOST LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W EARLY WED...AND THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THU. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF
ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINE FROM 22N140W TO 23N135W TO
18N126W. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON WED
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W...WITH
THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 7-
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEAR 15N135W ON THU AND THU NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON FRI. BY THEN NORTHERLY WINDS NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 130-115W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE AFFECTED AREA
TO SHIFT TO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 26N LATER TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ON
WED AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT ON THU
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242145
TWDEP

ZCZC MIAWRKEP 240230
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY SUNSET TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT
OR LESS LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING FROM ONE RUN TO
THE NEXT AND SUGGESTS THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 07N87W TO 04N104W TO 05N110W TO
03N120W...AND THEN IS INTERRUPTED BY TWO EMBEDDED N TO S
ORIENTATED TROUGHS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N78W AND 07.5N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N108W TO 05N127W. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 04N123W TO 18N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N124W TO 20N126W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N126W. THE
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N138W TO 24N135W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 06N140W TO 13N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 129W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N115W TO A CREST NEAR
35N131W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TWO N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE
DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED
N COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 122-139W. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE TURNS E BETWEEN 25-30N...AND CONTINUES E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND FEEDS INTO ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME OVER
TEXAS.

THE WESTERNMOST LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W EARLY WED...AND THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THU. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF
ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINE FROM 22N140W TO 23N135W TO
18N126W. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON WED
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W...WITH
THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 7-
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEAR 15N135W ON THU AND THU NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON FRI. BY THEN NORTHERLY WINDS NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 130-115W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE AFFECTED AREA
TO SHIFT TO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 26N LATER TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ON
WED AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT ON THU
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS
GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE E-NE...
REACHING THE SW NORTH ATLC BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO EXTEND FROM 31N80W TO 30N81W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
06N14W TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 05W-15W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 39W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN NORTH ATLC. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN INTO THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W INTO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR
25N91W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS ALONG THE FRONT REMAIN SHALLOW...CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT ALSO REMAINS LIMITED...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-87W.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL. GIVEN THE OVERALL
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS S-SE RETURN
FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF. AS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY...
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH THE FORMED
LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVING E-NE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW INTRODUCING A
STRONGER ROUND OF N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THESE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FILTER TO THE SURFACE
WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OUTSIDE OF A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS ARE PULSING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. OTHERWISE...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR WITH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TRADES.

...HISPANIOLA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE NOSES SW ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND
WESTERN NORTH ATLC REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W. THE FRONT EXTENDS W-SW TO
29N75W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 54W-66W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO
OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 28N75W TO 25N80W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...
OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA WILL DEVELOP FURTHER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE BY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
LOW EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST...MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC EARLY THURSDAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...GALE FORCE SW
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THIS TIME WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH
CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS
GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE E-NE...
REACHING THE SW NORTH ATLC BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO EXTEND FROM 31N80W TO 30N81W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
06N14W TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 05W-15W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 39W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN NORTH ATLC. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN INTO THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W INTO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR
25N91W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS ALONG THE FRONT REMAIN SHALLOW...CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT ALSO REMAINS LIMITED...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-87W.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL. GIVEN THE OVERALL
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS S-SE RETURN
FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF. AS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY...
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH THE FORMED
LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVING E-NE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW INTRODUCING A
STRONGER ROUND OF N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THESE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FILTER TO THE SURFACE
WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OUTSIDE OF A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS ARE PULSING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. OTHERWISE...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR WITH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TRADES.

...HISPANIOLA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE NOSES SW ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND
WESTERN NORTH ATLC REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W. THE FRONT EXTENDS W-SW TO
29N75W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 54W-66W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO
OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 28N75W TO 25N80W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...
OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA WILL DEVELOP FURTHER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE BY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
LOW EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST...MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC EARLY THURSDAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...GALE FORCE SW
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THIS TIME WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH
CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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