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000
AXNT20 KNHC 201050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 29N
BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OF SHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 14N17W TO 6N22W. THE
ITCZ FROM 6N22W TO 1N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS FROM 25W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE MEXICO E OF 90W. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 29N94W. HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
DISSIPATED CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF W OF
90W. WHILE IN THE EASTERN GULF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF 25N E
OF 88W. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
BY TUE MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THIS REGION OF THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AT THE
UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THUS INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
S CENTRAL...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N78W WITH
TROUGH TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 31N78W TO 32N77W THEN A COLD FRONT
TO THE FAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. A LINE OF TSTMS E
OF THE FRONT FROM 30N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. BOTH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT THIS
CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 20-60 NM OF SHORE. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 29N
BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OF SHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 14N17W TO 6N22W. THE
ITCZ FROM 6N22W TO 1N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS FROM 25W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE MEXICO E OF 90W. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 29N94W. HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
DISSIPATED CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF W OF
90W. WHILE IN THE EASTERN GULF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF 25N E
OF 88W. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
BY TUE MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THIS REGION OF THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AT THE
UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THUS INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
S CENTRAL...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N78W WITH
TROUGH TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 31N78W TO 32N77W THEN A COLD FRONT
TO THE FAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. A LINE OF TSTMS E
OF THE FRONT FROM 30N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. BOTH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT THIS
CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 20-60 NM OF SHORE. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200704
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0615 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS 10N85W TO 08N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N90W TO 04N105W TO 05N110W TO 03N135W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02N TO 06N W OF 135W.


...DISCUSSION...
THE LAST REPORT AT 00 UTC FROM SALINA CRUZ ON THE PACIFIC END OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INDICATED PEAK WINDS TO 31 KT...AN
INDICATION THE STRONG GAP FLOW WILL POSSIBLY ONGOING INTO THE
ADJACENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING DUE TO
DRAINAGE FLOW EFFECTS...THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY. SEAS COULD REACH
10 FT IN FRESH NE SWELL AS FAR AS 120 NM DOWNSTREAM...DECAYING
BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED IN TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FRESH GAP WIND FLOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES TO 20N130W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING ON THE
SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
36N130W...BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FRONT WILL STALL AND START TO DISSIPATE N OF THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
N OF 20N THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT TRADE
WIND FLOW FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 130W...ALTHOUGH AN ASCAT
SATELLITE PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED ISOLATED WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR 10N135W. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES FROM THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT...CONFIRMING WAVE MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS SHOWING A MIX OF SE AND NW SWELL IN ADDITION TO
THE LOCAL TRADE WIND INFLUENCES. THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 135W.

THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL DAMPEN OUT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MORE
VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING N OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH 140W
TONIGHT. THE MAIN ENERGY WILL CROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES LATE TOMORROW...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD N OF 20N AND NOT REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA
UNTIL LATE WED.

A REINFORCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SECOND
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 32N...ALLOWING AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KT
WINDS IN THE TRADE WIND BELT FARTHER SOUTH. VARIOUS WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL
MOVE SE OF 30N140W STARTING TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE
AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 27N114W TO 07N140W BY LATE TUE.

NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT BY LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST...AND LOW PRES
DEEPENS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL
WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
WILL PERSIST N OF 25N E OF 125W BY MIDWEEK DUE TO THE ENHANCED
FLOW OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT OF BRIEF PULSE OF FRESH WESTERLY FLOW
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACROSS A GAP IN THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 30N LATE TUE INTO WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WAVE MODELS SUGGEST LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EQUATOR...REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS 15N AND WITHIN 200
NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN COASTLINES BY
LATE FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200704
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0615 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS 10N85W TO 08N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N90W TO 04N105W TO 05N110W TO 03N135W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02N TO 06N W OF 135W.


...DISCUSSION...
THE LAST REPORT AT 00 UTC FROM SALINA CRUZ ON THE PACIFIC END OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INDICATED PEAK WINDS TO 31 KT...AN
INDICATION THE STRONG GAP FLOW WILL POSSIBLY ONGOING INTO THE
ADJACENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING DUE TO
DRAINAGE FLOW EFFECTS...THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY. SEAS COULD REACH
10 FT IN FRESH NE SWELL AS FAR AS 120 NM DOWNSTREAM...DECAYING
BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED IN TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FRESH GAP WIND FLOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES TO 20N130W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING ON THE
SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
36N130W...BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FRONT WILL STALL AND START TO DISSIPATE N OF THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
N OF 20N THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT TRADE
WIND FLOW FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 130W...ALTHOUGH AN ASCAT
SATELLITE PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED ISOLATED WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR 10N135W. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES FROM THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT...CONFIRMING WAVE MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS SHOWING A MIX OF SE AND NW SWELL IN ADDITION TO
THE LOCAL TRADE WIND INFLUENCES. THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 135W.

THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL DAMPEN OUT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MORE
VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING N OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH 140W
TONIGHT. THE MAIN ENERGY WILL CROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES LATE TOMORROW...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD N OF 20N AND NOT REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA
UNTIL LATE WED.

A REINFORCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SECOND
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 32N...ALLOWING AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KT
WINDS IN THE TRADE WIND BELT FARTHER SOUTH. VARIOUS WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL
MOVE SE OF 30N140W STARTING TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE
AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 27N114W TO 07N140W BY LATE TUE.

NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT BY LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST...AND LOW PRES
DEEPENS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL
WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
WILL PERSIST N OF 25N E OF 125W BY MIDWEEK DUE TO THE ENHANCED
FLOW OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT OF BRIEF PULSE OF FRESH WESTERLY FLOW
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACROSS A GAP IN THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 30N LATE TUE INTO WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WAVE MODELS SUGGEST LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EQUATOR...REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS 15N AND WITHIN 200
NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN COASTLINES BY
LATE FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUN MORNING ON THE
SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OF SHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 14N17W TO 6N22W. THE
ITCZ FROM 6N22W TO 2N27W TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS
FROM 23W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE GULF E OF 90W. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 29N93W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF W OF 95W. WHILE
IN THE EASTERN GULF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF 25N E OF 88W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUE
MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THIS REGION OF THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AT THE
UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THUS INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO N OF CUBA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOS PRES NEAR
31N79W ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. A LINE
OF TSTMS E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N TO 26N BETWEEN 76 AND 77W.
BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUN MORNING ON THE
SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OF SHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 14N17W TO 6N22W. THE
ITCZ FROM 6N22W TO 2N27W TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS
FROM 23W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE GULF E OF 90W. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 29N93W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF W OF 95W. WHILE
IN THE EASTERN GULF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF 25N E OF 88W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUE
MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THIS REGION OF THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AT THE
UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THUS INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO N OF CUBA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOS PRES NEAR
31N79W ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. A LINE
OF TSTMS E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N TO 26N BETWEEN 76 AND 77W.
BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
03N77W TO 06N88W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE ITCZ TURNS SW FROM 06N88W TO 04N110W...
THEN WNW TO 05N123W...THEN WSW TO BEYOND 04N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES
FROM 03N77W TO 05N110W AND FROM 05N116W TO 09N127W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N108W TO 10N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER SE ARIZONA WITH A MID TO UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE NEAR 12N129W. A 420 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER
DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS FROM THE TROPICS
AT 12N120W TO ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 21N105W...
THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NE MEXICO EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT OVER
EASTERN TEXAS. ANOTHER BAND OVER UPPER MOISTURE IS STREAMING E
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N140W TO 30N124W TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

AN E TO W UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG
ABOUT 04N W OF 133W AND IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
CONVECTION ALONG TE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ.

ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ALONG 07N AND HAS AMPLIFIED W TO A GENTLE CREST NEAR 07N128W.
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE E
OF 103W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION BETWEEN
113-129W IS ADVECTED NE MERGING INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ALREADY MENTIONED. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM EARLIER ITCZ CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ IS STREAMING NE ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 10N110W. NE TRADES
ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 07N TO THE W OF
125W...WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW 10-15 KT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT TO NE OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. A
NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION NEAR
30N140W TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9
FT ON MON. SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W-135W THROUGH LATE MON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF
122W TO BAJA PENINSULA ON WED.

NORTHERLY FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON WHEN THE GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL
MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF 10-15 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
03N77W TO 06N88W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE ITCZ TURNS SW FROM 06N88W TO 04N110W...
THEN WNW TO 05N123W...THEN WSW TO BEYOND 04N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES
FROM 03N77W TO 05N110W AND FROM 05N116W TO 09N127W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N108W TO 10N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER SE ARIZONA WITH A MID TO UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE NEAR 12N129W. A 420 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER
DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS FROM THE TROPICS
AT 12N120W TO ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 21N105W...
THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NE MEXICO EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT OVER
EASTERN TEXAS. ANOTHER BAND OVER UPPER MOISTURE IS STREAMING E
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N140W TO 30N124W TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

AN E TO W UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG
ABOUT 04N W OF 133W AND IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
CONVECTION ALONG TE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ.

ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ALONG 07N AND HAS AMPLIFIED W TO A GENTLE CREST NEAR 07N128W.
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE E
OF 103W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION BETWEEN
113-129W IS ADVECTED NE MERGING INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ALREADY MENTIONED. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM EARLIER ITCZ CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ IS STREAMING NE ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 10N110W. NE TRADES
ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 07N TO THE W OF
125W...WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW 10-15 KT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT TO NE OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. A
NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION NEAR
30N140W TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9
FT ON MON. SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W-135W THROUGH LATE MON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF
122W TO BAJA PENINSULA ON WED.

NORTHERLY FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON WHEN THE GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL
MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF 10-15 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUN MORNING ON THE
SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OF SHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE WESTERNMOST
PART OF THE AXIS BEING AT SW SENEGAL. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
05N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N25W 01N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 02S-05N BETWEEN 14W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND S OF THE ITCZ W OF
26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING STABILITY AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH S OF THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W
AND PROVIDES THE GULF WITH N-NE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT. SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUE
MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THIS REGION OF THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AT THE
UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN BASIN THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORT LIGHTER NE WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT.
A WESTWARD-MOVING MOIST AIRMASS HAS REACHED JAMAICA AND CENTRAL-
EASTERN CUBA WHERE IT IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WET
TRADES ARE ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO N OF CUBA.
TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
A 1011 MB LOW OVER JACKSONVILLE NEAR 30N81W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT ALONG 30N79W 26N79W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N82W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDS FROM 30N74W TO 27N75W TO EASTERN-CENTRAL ANDROS NEAR
24N77W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DATA INDICATE THERE ARE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 80 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND
WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE N OF 24N. BOTH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT THIS
CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUN MORNING AND SUBSIDE SUN AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N53W WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT SE INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION BY SUN AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUN MORNING ON THE
SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OF SHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE WESTERNMOST
PART OF THE AXIS BEING AT SW SENEGAL. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
05N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N25W 01N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 02S-05N BETWEEN 14W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND S OF THE ITCZ W OF
26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING STABILITY AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH S OF THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W
AND PROVIDES THE GULF WITH N-NE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT. SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUE
MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THIS REGION OF THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AT THE
UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN BASIN THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORT LIGHTER NE WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT.
A WESTWARD-MOVING MOIST AIRMASS HAS REACHED JAMAICA AND CENTRAL-
EASTERN CUBA WHERE IT IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WET
TRADES ARE ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO N OF CUBA.
TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
A 1011 MB LOW OVER JACKSONVILLE NEAR 30N81W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT ALONG 30N79W 26N79W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N82W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDS FROM 30N74W TO 27N75W TO EASTERN-CENTRAL ANDROS NEAR
24N77W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DATA INDICATE THERE ARE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 80 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND
WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE N OF 24N. BOTH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT THIS
CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUN MORNING AND SUBSIDE SUN AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N53W WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT SE INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION BY SUN AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192153
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
03N77W TO 06N88W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE ITCZ TURNS SW FROM 06N88W TO 04N110W...
THEN WNW TO 05N123W...THEN WSW TO BEYOND 04N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES
FROM 03N77W TO 05N110W AND FROM 05N116W TO 09N127W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N108W TO 10N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH A MID TO UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A BASE NEAR 13N127W. A 360 NM WIDE BAND
OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE TROPICS AT 13N120W TO ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
22N105W...THEN TURNS N ACROSS NE MEXICO EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. ANOTHER BAND OVER UPPER MOISTURE IS
STREAMING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 31N140W TO 31N124W TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

AN E TO W UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG
ABOUT 05N W OF 105W AND IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
ITCZ CONVECTION. SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED NE INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALREADY MENTIONED.

ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ALONG 07N TO A CREST NEAR 07N103W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE E OF 103W. DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM EARLIER ITCZ CONVECTION IS STREAMING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 10N110W. NE TRADES
ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 07N TO THE W OF
125W...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW 10-15 KT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT TO NE OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. A
NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION NEAR
30N140W TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9
FT ON MON. SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W-135W THROUGH LATE MON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF
122W TO BAJA PENINSULA ON WED.

NORTHERLY FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON WHEN THE GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL
MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF 10-15 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192153
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
03N77W TO 06N88W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE ITCZ TURNS SW FROM 06N88W TO 04N110W...
THEN WNW TO 05N123W...THEN WSW TO BEYOND 04N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES
FROM 03N77W TO 05N110W AND FROM 05N116W TO 09N127W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N108W TO 10N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH A MID TO UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A BASE NEAR 13N127W. A 360 NM WIDE BAND
OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE TROPICS AT 13N120W TO ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
22N105W...THEN TURNS N ACROSS NE MEXICO EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. ANOTHER BAND OVER UPPER MOISTURE IS
STREAMING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 31N140W TO 31N124W TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

AN E TO W UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG
ABOUT 05N W OF 105W AND IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
ITCZ CONVECTION. SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED NE INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALREADY MENTIONED.

ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ALONG 07N TO A CREST NEAR 07N103W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE E OF 103W. DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM EARLIER ITCZ CONVECTION IS STREAMING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 10N110W. NE TRADES
ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 07N TO THE W OF
125W...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW 10-15 KT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT TO NE OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. A
NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION NEAR
30N140W TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9
FT ON MON. SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W-135W THROUGH LATE MON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF
122W TO BAJA PENINSULA ON WED.

NORTHERLY FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON WHEN THE GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL
MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF 10-15 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N/14N FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL TO
18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N11W 5N15W 3N20W 1N25W...TO 30W FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1N...TO 1N40W AND 1N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
20W AND THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF BRAZIL NEAR ITS BORDER WITH
FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER...THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
92W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM TEXAS INTO
EASTERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SUPPORT A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT ALSO IS IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...TOWARD THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA. A SQUALL LINE RANGES FROM 140 NM TO 180 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N...FROM THE EXUMA CAYS...NORTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BUILDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER THAT IS ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ACTIVE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SOME BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO
THE EAST OF 90W...WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...FROM
BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA...AND SOUTHWARD FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE TROUGH THAT RUNS
FROM THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N21W TO 19N43W AND
EVENTUALLY TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF
80W...AND BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
EXPECT NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND 84W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND SET OF 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST TIME.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N32W TO 23N39W 19N43W 15N57W...INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 31N20W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N20W TO 28N23W 26N27W AND 24N31W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N10W 25N18W 20N30W 15N40W.

A 1030 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N54W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE
EAST OF 52W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 73W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N/14N FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL TO
18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N11W 5N15W 3N20W 1N25W...TO 30W FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1N...TO 1N40W AND 1N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
20W AND THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF BRAZIL NEAR ITS BORDER WITH
FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER...THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
92W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM TEXAS INTO
EASTERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SUPPORT A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT ALSO IS IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...TOWARD THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA. A SQUALL LINE RANGES FROM 140 NM TO 180 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N...FROM THE EXUMA CAYS...NORTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BUILDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER THAT IS ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ACTIVE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SOME BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO
THE EAST OF 90W...WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...FROM
BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA...AND SOUTHWARD FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE TROUGH THAT RUNS
FROM THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N21W TO 19N43W AND
EVENTUALLY TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF
80W...AND BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
EXPECT NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND 84W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND SET OF 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST TIME.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N32W TO 23N39W 19N43W 15N57W...INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 31N20W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N20W TO 28N23W 26N27W AND 24N31W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N10W 25N18W 20N30W 15N40W.

A 1030 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N54W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE
EAST OF 52W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 73W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N/14N FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL TO
18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N11W 5N15W 3N20W 1N25W...TO 30W FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1N...TO 1N40W AND 1N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
20W AND THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF BRAZIL NEAR ITS BORDER WITH
FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER...THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
92W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM TEXAS INTO
EASTERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SUPPORT A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT ALSO IS IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...TOWARD THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA. A SQUALL LINE RANGES FROM 140 NM TO 180 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N...FROM THE EXUMA CAYS...NORTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BUILDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER THAT IS ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ACTIVE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SOME BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO
THE EAST OF 90W...WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...FROM
BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA...AND SOUTHWARD FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE TROUGH THAT RUNS
FROM THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N21W TO 19N43W AND
EVENTUALLY TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF
80W...AND BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
EXPECT NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND 84W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND SET OF 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST TIME.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N32W TO 23N39W 19N43W 15N57W...INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 31N20W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N20W TO 28N23W 26N27W AND 24N31W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N10W 25N18W 20N30W 15N40W.

A 1030 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N54W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE
EAST OF 52W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 73W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N/14N FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL TO
18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N11W 5N15W 3N20W 1N25W...TO 30W FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1N...TO 1N40W AND 1N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
20W AND THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF BRAZIL NEAR ITS BORDER WITH
FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER...THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
92W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM TEXAS INTO
EASTERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SUPPORT A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT ALSO IS IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...TOWARD THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA. A SQUALL LINE RANGES FROM 140 NM TO 180 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N...FROM THE EXUMA CAYS...NORTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BUILDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER THAT IS ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ACTIVE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SOME BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO
THE EAST OF 90W...WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...FROM
BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA...AND SOUTHWARD FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE TROUGH THAT RUNS
FROM THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N21W TO 19N43W AND
EVENTUALLY TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF
80W...AND BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
EXPECT NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND 84W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND SET OF 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST TIME.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N32W TO 23N39W 19N43W 15N57W...INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 31N20W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N20W TO 28N23W 26N27W AND 24N31W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N10W 25N18W 20N30W 15N40W.

A 1030 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N54W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE
EAST OF 52W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 73W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191617
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOONAL CIRCULATION NOT YET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W AND MEANDERS WESTWARD TO 06.5N99W TO
05.5N112W TO 05N126W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 07N E OF 82W. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONE NEAR 22N128W THEN ON TO 22N135W. E OF THIS FEATURE A
RATHER FLAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NEAR 13N ALONG 96-97W
NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND AMPLIFIED INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
OTHERWISE...UPPER FLOW S OF 15N REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS
WESTERLIES GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS
AND IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO THE TROPOSPHERE TO INTERRUPT AND
DIVERT THE UPPER FLOW...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
INDUCED ACROSS ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING W OF 120W.

THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE SW U.S. WILL AID IN
PRODUCING BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO
TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL YIELD MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. OTHERWISE...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION...CENTERED ON A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N143W EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES INVOF THE ITCZ IS
YIELDING A ZONE OF NE TRADEWINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS TO 25 KT FROM 07N TO 24N W OF 137W EXTENDING TO S OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING 8-10 FT IN
MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION
JUST TO THE NW THIS MORNING AND WILL FORCE THIS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE E DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN.

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF TEHUATEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT THIS MORNING...AS
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH A BIT MORE TO 20-25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 30 KT TONIGHT...AS NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE ENHANCES THE N WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING.

LOOK FOR AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR
THE ITCZ DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PREVAIL.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191617
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOONAL CIRCULATION NOT YET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W AND MEANDERS WESTWARD TO 06.5N99W TO
05.5N112W TO 05N126W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 07N E OF 82W. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONE NEAR 22N128W THEN ON TO 22N135W. E OF THIS FEATURE A
RATHER FLAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NEAR 13N ALONG 96-97W
NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND AMPLIFIED INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
OTHERWISE...UPPER FLOW S OF 15N REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS
WESTERLIES GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS
AND IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO THE TROPOSPHERE TO INTERRUPT AND
DIVERT THE UPPER FLOW...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
INDUCED ACROSS ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING W OF 120W.

THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE SW U.S. WILL AID IN
PRODUCING BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO
TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL YIELD MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. OTHERWISE...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION...CENTERED ON A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N143W EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES INVOF THE ITCZ IS
YIELDING A ZONE OF NE TRADEWINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS TO 25 KT FROM 07N TO 24N W OF 137W EXTENDING TO S OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING 8-10 FT IN
MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION
JUST TO THE NW THIS MORNING AND WILL FORCE THIS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE E DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN.

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF TEHUATEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT THIS MORNING...AS
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH A BIT MORE TO 20-25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 30 KT TONIGHT...AS NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE ENHANCES THE N WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING.

LOOK FOR AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR
THE ITCZ DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PREVAIL.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191617
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOONAL CIRCULATION NOT YET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W AND MEANDERS WESTWARD TO 06.5N99W TO
05.5N112W TO 05N126W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 07N E OF 82W. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONE NEAR 22N128W THEN ON TO 22N135W. E OF THIS FEATURE A
RATHER FLAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NEAR 13N ALONG 96-97W
NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND AMPLIFIED INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
OTHERWISE...UPPER FLOW S OF 15N REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS
WESTERLIES GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS
AND IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO THE TROPOSPHERE TO INTERRUPT AND
DIVERT THE UPPER FLOW...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
INDUCED ACROSS ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING W OF 120W.

THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE SW U.S. WILL AID IN
PRODUCING BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO
TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL YIELD MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. OTHERWISE...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION...CENTERED ON A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N143W EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES INVOF THE ITCZ IS
YIELDING A ZONE OF NE TRADEWINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS TO 25 KT FROM 07N TO 24N W OF 137W EXTENDING TO S OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING 8-10 FT IN
MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION
JUST TO THE NW THIS MORNING AND WILL FORCE THIS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE E DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN.

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF TEHUATEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT THIS MORNING...AS
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH A BIT MORE TO 20-25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 30 KT TONIGHT...AS NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE ENHANCES THE N WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING.

LOOK FOR AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR
THE ITCZ DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PREVAIL.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191617
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOONAL CIRCULATION NOT YET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W AND MEANDERS WESTWARD TO 06.5N99W TO
05.5N112W TO 05N126W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 07N E OF 82W. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONE NEAR 22N128W THEN ON TO 22N135W. E OF THIS FEATURE A
RATHER FLAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NEAR 13N ALONG 96-97W
NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND AMPLIFIED INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
OTHERWISE...UPPER FLOW S OF 15N REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS
WESTERLIES GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS
AND IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO THE TROPOSPHERE TO INTERRUPT AND
DIVERT THE UPPER FLOW...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
INDUCED ACROSS ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING W OF 120W.

THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE SW U.S. WILL AID IN
PRODUCING BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO
TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL YIELD MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. OTHERWISE...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION...CENTERED ON A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N143W EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES INVOF THE ITCZ IS
YIELDING A ZONE OF NE TRADEWINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS TO 25 KT FROM 07N TO 24N W OF 137W EXTENDING TO S OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING 8-10 FT IN
MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION
JUST TO THE NW THIS MORNING AND WILL FORCE THIS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE E DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN.

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF TEHUATEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT THIS MORNING...AS
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH A BIT MORE TO 20-25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 30 KT TONIGHT...AS NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE ENHANCES THE N WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING.

LOOK FOR AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR
THE ITCZ DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PREVAIL.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N20W TO 8N23W. ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 4N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N23W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-22W AND FROM 5N TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVER SE ALABAMA TO OVER THE E GULF AND IS SUPPORTING AT 19/0900
UTC A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
30N83W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INLAND OVER FLORIDA THEN
RETURNING INTO THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS TO 23N85W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR
NAPLES OVER KEY WEST AND THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE TROUGH N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER N FLORIDA THIS MORNING PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF. BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE GULF. THE
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR N GULF
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE W TIP
OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45
NM OF THE TROUGH. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI INCLUDING
THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N64W ALONG 15N70W TO 16N80W COVERING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...E CUBA AND JAMAICA. W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH MON MAINTAINING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVES
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND THEN NE ACROSS THE NW ATLC THROUGH
WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HAITI INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING HISPANIOLA
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE GULF OF MEXICO
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER E CUBA SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUN TO TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN AMPLIFIES N OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA
TO BEYOND 32N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N80W
TO BEYOND 32N78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N30W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC BY EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING ACROSS FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 31N78W LATE
TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT TO CENTRAL CUBA AND TO NEAR 31N76W BY
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT TO E CUBA. THE LOW WILL MOVE N OF
THE REGION AND THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR
31N70W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC TUE EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N20W TO 8N23W. ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 4N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N23W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-22W AND FROM 5N TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVER SE ALABAMA TO OVER THE E GULF AND IS SUPPORTING AT 19/0900
UTC A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
30N83W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INLAND OVER FLORIDA THEN
RETURNING INTO THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS TO 23N85W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR
NAPLES OVER KEY WEST AND THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE TROUGH N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER N FLORIDA THIS MORNING PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF. BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE GULF. THE
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR N GULF
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE W TIP
OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45
NM OF THE TROUGH. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI INCLUDING
THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N64W ALONG 15N70W TO 16N80W COVERING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...E CUBA AND JAMAICA. W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH MON MAINTAINING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVES
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND THEN NE ACROSS THE NW ATLC THROUGH
WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HAITI INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING HISPANIOLA
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE GULF OF MEXICO
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER E CUBA SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUN TO TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN AMPLIFIES N OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA
TO BEYOND 32N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N80W
TO BEYOND 32N78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N30W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC BY EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING ACROSS FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 31N78W LATE
TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT TO CENTRAL CUBA AND TO NEAR 31N76W BY
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT TO E CUBA. THE LOW WILL MOVE N OF
THE REGION AND THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR
31N70W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC TUE EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190912
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH ONLY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SUN...THEN 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 6N90W. ITCZ FROM 6N90W TO 4N110W
TO 5N122W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 116W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N130W TO 20N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER TO 18N127W. SW WINDS E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NW MEXICO. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 22N113W INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. IN THE DEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
10N105W TO THE EQUATOR AT 106W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15 W OF 111W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL FROM 7N-20N W OF
134W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AN AREA OF NW SWELL 8 TO 10 FT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN AND SPREAD SE ON MON.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190912
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH ONLY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SUN...THEN 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 6N90W. ITCZ FROM 6N90W TO 4N110W
TO 5N122W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 116W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N130W TO 20N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER TO 18N127W. SW WINDS E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NW MEXICO. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 22N113W INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. IN THE DEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
10N105W TO THE EQUATOR AT 106W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15 W OF 111W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL FROM 7N-20N W OF
134W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AN AREA OF NW SWELL 8 TO 10 FT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN AND SPREAD SE ON MON.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190912
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH ONLY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SUN...THEN 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 6N90W. ITCZ FROM 6N90W TO 4N110W
TO 5N122W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 116W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N130W TO 20N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER TO 18N127W. SW WINDS E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NW MEXICO. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 22N113W INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. IN THE DEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
10N105W TO THE EQUATOR AT 106W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15 W OF 111W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL FROM 7N-20N W OF
134W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AN AREA OF NW SWELL 8 TO 10 FT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN AND SPREAD SE ON MON.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190912
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH ONLY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SUN...THEN 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 6N90W. ITCZ FROM 6N90W TO 4N110W
TO 5N122W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 116W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N130W TO 20N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER TO 18N127W. SW WINDS E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NW MEXICO. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 22N113W INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. IN THE DEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
10N105W TO THE EQUATOR AT 106W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15 W OF 111W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL FROM 7N-20N W OF
134W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AN AREA OF NW SWELL 8 TO 10 FT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN AND SPREAD SE ON MON.

$$
DGS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N17W TO 4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 2W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 18W-27W WITH LARGER CLUSTERS FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 33W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER S ALABAMA TO OVER THE GULF AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1011 MB
LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING ALONG 25N85W TO OVER THE N YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO OVER SE GEORGIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
23N84W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS. LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF BY
SAT AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS SUN
THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N E OF 67W TO
OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA ALONG 15N70W TO 17N80W
COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND E CUBA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
SAT.THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND THEN NE ACROSS THE NW ATLC
THROUGH WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING
HISPANIOLA WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA TO BEYOND
32N78W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N26W ALONG 28N31W TO 27N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH ABOUT
550 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR
26N23W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING THEN N OF THE AREA SUN. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL EXTEND 31N76W THROUGH 27N76W TO
22N74W SUN EVENING AND FROM 31N70W THROUGH 27N70W TO 22N71W MON
EVENING THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N17W TO 4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 2W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 18W-27W WITH LARGER CLUSTERS FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 33W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER S ALABAMA TO OVER THE GULF AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1011 MB
LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING ALONG 25N85W TO OVER THE N YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO OVER SE GEORGIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
23N84W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS. LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF BY
SAT AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS SUN
THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N E OF 67W TO
OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA ALONG 15N70W TO 17N80W
COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND E CUBA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
SAT.THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND THEN NE ACROSS THE NW ATLC
THROUGH WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING
HISPANIOLA WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA TO BEYOND
32N78W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N26W ALONG 28N31W TO 27N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH ABOUT
550 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR
26N23W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING THEN N OF THE AREA SUN. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL EXTEND 31N76W THROUGH 27N76W TO
22N74W SUN EVENING AND FROM 31N70W THROUGH 27N70W TO 22N71W MON
EVENING THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DRAGGED A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY FLOW HAS
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT WITH NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY SURGING INTO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN TONIGHT
WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SAT WITH ONLY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING
THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM DRAINAGE SHOULD
ONLY MAX 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT
08N82W TO 07N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 04N110W...THEN NW TO
06N122W....THEN W TO BEYOND 06N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES
FROM 07N80W TO 04N104W AND FROM 08N118W TO 04N138W.

A PERSISTENT MID-UPPER TROUGH HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDING
FROM 14N109W TO 03N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 75 NM OF 13.5N108.5W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 09N108W TO 03N110W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MID
TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A BASE NEAR 17N131W. DENSE UPPER
DEBRIS IS CONCENTRATED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SPREADING NE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADING N ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO
AND W TEXAS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS JUST NOW SPREADING E
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY JUST W OF THE
AREA AT 08N141W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A
CREST NEAR 05N114W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE CONTINUES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 115W.

THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N109W TO 03N111W
IS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS QUASI-STATIONARY FROM 03-15N
BETWEEN 103-113W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW JUST DESCRIBED OVER THE SW PORTION FROM ANOTHER TROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SE PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 07N TO THE E OF
100W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVER MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ...AND IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
CONVECTION. SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THEN THINS AS IT TURNS E-NE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N140W TO NEAR
18N105W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND 07N TO THE W OF 120W...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED LONG
PERIOD NW AND NE SWELL WITH ADDITIONAL LONG PERIOD CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW TO N 15 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. A NEW
BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W SAT NIGHT...AND CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON. SEAS OF 8-9 FT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W-135W ON TUE.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NE GULF IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N85W AT 2100
UTC. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN WILL CONTINUE NE TO
EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT AFTERNOON. GALE WINDS AT THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 09N19W TO 04N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 04N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W 01S40W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 02N BETWEEN 07W-12W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 18W-
24W...05S-01N BETWEEN 26W-30W AND FROM 02S-03N W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A BASE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW S OF PANAMA CITY
NEAR 29N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N85W
22N88W TO 21N91W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH TO
18N94W. A PARTIAL STATIONARY FRONT DEPARTS FROM THE LOW NE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE GALE FORCE WINDS AT
THE W-NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW CENTER WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE
TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLC THUS INDUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 86W...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN WILL
CONTINUE NE TO EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. THIS PATTERN
ALOFT IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY ACROSS THE BASIN. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND SW N ATLC EXTENDS INTO
THE NORTHERN BASIN CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SUPPORT WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORT
LIGHTER WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT. THE MOIST AIRMASS FORMERLY
GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAS MOVED INTO HISPANIOLA
AND NOW SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE. CURRENTLY SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW THESE SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
ALONG CUBA BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS THEN WEAKENING SUN AS LOW
PRES MOVES N OF AREA AND THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
EXITING THE GULF SAT MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS PREVIOUSLY GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO HAS MOVED INTO HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED OVER CENTRAL-
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF
THE GULF WATERS ON SAT MORNING WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN SUN INTO MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 34N54W
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SW N ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD
RIDGE ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE
SW N ATLC N OF 25N W OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A ZONE OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N26W TO
25N32W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FARTHER EAST...A
WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR 29N17W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NE GULF IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N85W AT 2100
UTC. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN WILL CONTINUE NE TO
EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT AFTERNOON. GALE WINDS AT THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 09N19W TO 04N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 04N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W 01S40W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 02N BETWEEN 07W-12W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 18W-
24W...05S-01N BETWEEN 26W-30W AND FROM 02S-03N W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A BASE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW S OF PANAMA CITY
NEAR 29N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N85W
22N88W TO 21N91W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH TO
18N94W. A PARTIAL STATIONARY FRONT DEPARTS FROM THE LOW NE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE GALE FORCE WINDS AT
THE W-NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW CENTER WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE
TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLC THUS INDUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 86W...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN WILL
CONTINUE NE TO EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. THIS PATTERN
ALOFT IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY ACROSS THE BASIN. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND SW N ATLC EXTENDS INTO
THE NORTHERN BASIN CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SUPPORT WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORT
LIGHTER WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT. THE MOIST AIRMASS FORMERLY
GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAS MOVED INTO HISPANIOLA
AND NOW SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE. CURRENTLY SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW THESE SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
ALONG CUBA BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS THEN WEAKENING SUN AS LOW
PRES MOVES N OF AREA AND THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
EXITING THE GULF SAT MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS PREVIOUSLY GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO HAS MOVED INTO HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED OVER CENTRAL-
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF
THE GULF WATERS ON SAT MORNING WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN SUN INTO MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 34N54W
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SW N ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD
RIDGE ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE
SW N ATLC N OF 25N W OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A ZONE OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N26W TO
25N32W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FARTHER EAST...A
WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR 29N17W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRAG THE SOUTHERN
END OF A COLD FRONT E THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS
SURGING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THESE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SAT WITH ONLY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT
EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM DRAINAGE
SHOULD ONLY MAX 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT
08N82W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES W TO 07N97W...THEN DIPS SW TO
05N111W...THEN WIGGLES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 06N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DECAYING ALONG
THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITHIN 75 NM OF 05.5N78W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N84W TO 03N107W AND
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N120W TO 04.5N132W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 02-77N
BETWEEN 135-140W.

A PERSISTENT MID-UPPER TROUGH NOW HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION
EXTENDING FROM 14N107W TO 02N111W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
13N108W TO 03N110W TO 04N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOW MOVING
E ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A MID TO UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SW HAS AMPLIFIED TO A BASE NEAR
17N127W. DENSE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC IS NOW CONCENTRATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND SPREADING E ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ALSO SPREADING N ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ARIZONA...NEW
MEXICO AND EXTREME W TEXAS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD E
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA AT
08N141W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A CREST
NEAR 06N113W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS ENHANCED THE
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 115W. THE
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N107W TO 02N111W IS
UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS QUASI-STATIONARY FROM 04-15N
BETWEEN 100-112W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW JUST DESCRIBED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION FROM ANOTHER
TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SE PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 07N TO
THE E OF 100W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVER
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ...AND IS SUPPORTING THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION. SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THEN TURNS E-NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N140W TO NEAR
18N105W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND 07N TO THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED LONG
PERIOD NW AND NE SWELL WITH ADDITIONAL LONG PERIOD CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW TO N 15 KT WINDS TO THE NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. A NEW BATCH OF NW
SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W SAT NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON. SEAS OF 8-9 FT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W-135W ON TUE.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRAG THE SOUTHERN
END OF A COLD FRONT E THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS
SURGING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THESE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SAT WITH ONLY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT
EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM DRAINAGE
SHOULD ONLY MAX 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT
08N82W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES W TO 07N97W...THEN DIPS SW TO
05N111W...THEN WIGGLES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 06N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DECAYING ALONG
THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITHIN 75 NM OF 05.5N78W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N84W TO 03N107W AND
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N120W TO 04.5N132W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 02-77N
BETWEEN 135-140W.

A PERSISTENT MID-UPPER TROUGH NOW HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION
EXTENDING FROM 14N107W TO 02N111W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
13N108W TO 03N110W TO 04N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOW MOVING
E ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A MID TO UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SW HAS AMPLIFIED TO A BASE NEAR
17N127W. DENSE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC IS NOW CONCENTRATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND SPREADING E ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ALSO SPREADING N ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ARIZONA...NEW
MEXICO AND EXTREME W TEXAS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD E
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA AT
08N141W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A CREST
NEAR 06N113W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS ENHANCED THE
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 115W. THE
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N107W TO 02N111W IS
UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS QUASI-STATIONARY FROM 04-15N
BETWEEN 100-112W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW JUST DESCRIBED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION FROM ANOTHER
TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SE PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 07N TO
THE E OF 100W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVER
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ...AND IS SUPPORTING THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION. SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THEN TURNS E-NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N140W TO NEAR
18N105W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND 07N TO THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED LONG
PERIOD NW AND NE SWELL WITH ADDITIONAL LONG PERIOD CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW TO N 15 KT WINDS TO THE NE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. A NEW BATCH OF NW
SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W SAT NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON. SEAS OF 8-9 FT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W-135W ON TUE.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NE GULF IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 28.5N87W AT 1200
UTC. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
CONTINUE NE OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT MORNING.
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. IN FACT...THE 1524 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE
OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN AROUND 70 NM ON THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 4N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND S OF 2N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM OF 6N13W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
IS CENTERED NEAR 28.5N87W AT 1200 UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
COVERING MAINLY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT SPREADING AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. LATEST SURFACE OBS
INDICATE WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF THIS DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE
NE GULF. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS.  THE
LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA EMERGING
INTO THE SW N ATLC ON SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE.
ALOFT...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO OVER THE W GULF
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE RELATED TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO
INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRES. A WIDE-BAND OF SHOWERS WITH TSTMS
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25-30 KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PAR OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRES CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW COVERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS QUICK PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL
COASTAL WATERS. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES IN TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS THEN
WEAKENING SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES N OF AREA AND THE HIGH PRES
WEAKENS. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SW ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SE WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC
RIDGE ARE TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS OF THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN FROM THE EAST ON SAT RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUN INTO MON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO NEAR COCOA
BEACH FLORIDA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT N OF AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY NE...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXITING GEORGIA COAST SAT MORNING.
FREEPORT IN THE NW BAHAMAS REPORTED 2.31 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N78W TO FLORIDA KEYS SAT AFTERNOON...THEN EXTEND FROM
BERMUDA TO TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS MON EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE ATLC RIDGE. A
1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N54W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE SEEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR
29N20W AND WILL DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ALOFT...THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC AND STRETCHES FROM A LOW PRES LOCATED WELL N OF
AREA TO 31N29W TO 26N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NE GULF IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 28.5N87W AT 1200
UTC. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
CONTINUE NE OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT MORNING.
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. IN FACT...THE 1524 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE
OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN AROUND 70 NM ON THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 4N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND S OF 2N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM OF 6N13W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
IS CENTERED NEAR 28.5N87W AT 1200 UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
COVERING MAINLY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT SPREADING AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. LATEST SURFACE OBS
INDICATE WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF THIS DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE
NE GULF. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS.  THE
LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA EMERGING
INTO THE SW N ATLC ON SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE.
ALOFT...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO OVER THE W GULF
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE RELATED TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO
INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRES. A WIDE-BAND OF SHOWERS WITH TSTMS
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25-30 KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PAR OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRES CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW COVERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS QUICK PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL
COASTAL WATERS. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES IN TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS THEN
WEAKENING SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES N OF AREA AND THE HIGH PRES
WEAKENS. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SW ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SE WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC
RIDGE ARE TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS OF THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN FROM THE EAST ON SAT RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUN INTO MON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO NEAR COCOA
BEACH FLORIDA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT N OF AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY NE...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXITING GEORGIA COAST SAT MORNING.
FREEPORT IN THE NW BAHAMAS REPORTED 2.31 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N78W TO FLORIDA KEYS SAT AFTERNOON...THEN EXTEND FROM
BERMUDA TO TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS MON EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE ATLC RIDGE. A
1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N54W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE SEEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR
29N20W AND WILL DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ALOFT...THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC AND STRETCHES FROM A LOW PRES LOCATED WELL N OF
AREA TO 31N29W TO 26N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NE GULF IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 28.5N87W AT 1200
UTC. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
CONTINUE NE OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT MORNING.
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. IN FACT...THE 1524 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE
OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN AROUND 70 NM ON THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 4N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND S OF 2N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM OF 6N13W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
IS CENTERED NEAR 28.5N87W AT 1200 UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
COVERING MAINLY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT SPREADING AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. LATEST SURFACE OBS
INDICATE WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF THIS DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE
NE GULF. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS.  THE
LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA EMERGING
INTO THE SW N ATLC ON SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE.
ALOFT...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO OVER THE W GULF
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE RELATED TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO
INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRES. A WIDE-BAND OF SHOWERS WITH TSTMS
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25-30 KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PAR OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRES CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW COVERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS QUICK PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL
COASTAL WATERS. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES IN TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS THEN
WEAKENING SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES N OF AREA AND THE HIGH PRES
WEAKENS. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SW ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SE WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC
RIDGE ARE TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS OF THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN FROM THE EAST ON SAT RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUN INTO MON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO NEAR COCOA
BEACH FLORIDA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT N OF AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY NE...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXITING GEORGIA COAST SAT MORNING.
FREEPORT IN THE NW BAHAMAS REPORTED 2.31 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N78W TO FLORIDA KEYS SAT AFTERNOON...THEN EXTEND FROM
BERMUDA TO TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS MON EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE ATLC RIDGE. A
1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N54W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE SEEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR
29N20W AND WILL DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ALOFT...THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC AND STRETCHES FROM A LOW PRES LOCATED WELL N OF
AREA TO 31N29W TO 26N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NE GULF IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 28.5N87W AT 1200
UTC. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
CONTINUE NE OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT MORNING.
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. IN FACT...THE 1524 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE
OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN AROUND 70 NM ON THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 4N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND S OF 2N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM OF 6N13W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
IS CENTERED NEAR 28.5N87W AT 1200 UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
COVERING MAINLY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT SPREADING AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. LATEST SURFACE OBS
INDICATE WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF THIS DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE
NE GULF. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS.  THE
LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA EMERGING
INTO THE SW N ATLC ON SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE.
ALOFT...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO OVER THE W GULF
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE RELATED TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO
INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRES. A WIDE-BAND OF SHOWERS WITH TSTMS
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25-30 KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PAR OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRES CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW COVERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS QUICK PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL
COASTAL WATERS. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES IN TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS THEN
WEAKENING SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES N OF AREA AND THE HIGH PRES
WEAKENS. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SW ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SE WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC
RIDGE ARE TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS OF THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN FROM THE EAST ON SAT RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUN INTO MON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO NEAR COCOA
BEACH FLORIDA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT N OF AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY NE...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXITING GEORGIA COAST SAT MORNING.
FREEPORT IN THE NW BAHAMAS REPORTED 2.31 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N78W TO FLORIDA KEYS SAT AFTERNOON...THEN EXTEND FROM
BERMUDA TO TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS MON EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE ATLC RIDGE. A
1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N54W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE SEEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR
29N20W AND WILL DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ALOFT...THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC AND STRETCHES FROM A LOW PRES LOCATED WELL N OF
AREA TO 31N29W TO 26N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181513
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TODAY WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS
DECREASE SAT EVENING TO 20-30 KT AND CONTINUE TO SUN WITH SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N90W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N90W TO 07N110W TO 05N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 116W AND
133W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 130W...AND S
OF 20N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W
AND 130W TO INCLUDE BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS OVER N MEXICO
N OF 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 115W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 110W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N TO 07N
BETWEEN 78W AND 104W.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR
29 N146W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERS
THE AREA BASICALLY FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 138W. ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATES SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADEWIND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 116W
AND 133W. ELSEWHERE...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SURFACE HIGH AND A 1007 MB LOW OVER N BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
PRODUCING LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. 8 FT SWELL ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 121W AND 124W.
EXPECT A NEW SWELL TRAIN TO ENTER THE NW CORNER IN 48 HOURS WITH
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE NEAR
29N88W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES OVER FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N18W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
3N W OF 44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR E OF 17W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 4N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE W GULF AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM E/CENTRAL CUBA E OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A 1012 MB LOW DEVELOPED AT 18/0600 UTC CENTERED NEAR
28N87W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW TO 23N91W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N85W TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA
WHERE IT CONNECTS TO THE A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W
ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N92W
TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 22N91W ALONG 25N88W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST
NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW
GULF S OF 23N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT N THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW MOVING E-NE. BY SAT
MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER N FLORIDA WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S-SW OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE E AWAY
FROM FLORIDA DURING SAT AFTERNOON PUSHING THE FRONT E OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF SAT NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS E/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-82W AND S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA E OF 69W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO 1N72W COVERING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE E PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE
THROUGH SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN AS A
WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W
ATLC WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH
THE AXIS JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A REMNANT STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N72W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N77W TO
OVER THE FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH TO TAMPA BAY. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N33W ALONG 29N38W TO
26N47W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE E ACROSS
N FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON LATE TODAY WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED BY
SAT EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 7N85W TO 5N100W TO 8N115W TO 6N132W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM S OF AXIS FROM
88W-102W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 125W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N120W TO 20N124W. SW WINDS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 7N132W NE TO 16N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
125W-135W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
8N104W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 14N W OF 108W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS FROM 5N-18N W OF
135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AREA OF NW SWELL TO
8 FT IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W-128W. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
BELOW 8 FT SAT.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON LATE TODAY WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED BY
SAT EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 7N85W TO 5N100W TO 8N115W TO 6N132W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM S OF AXIS FROM
88W-102W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 125W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N120W TO 20N124W. SW WINDS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 7N132W NE TO 16N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
125W-135W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
8N104W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 14N W OF 108W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS FROM 5N-18N W OF
135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AREA OF NW SWELL TO
8 FT IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W-128W. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
BELOW 8 FT SAT.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 180539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE NEAR
29N88W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES E OF THE GULF. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES NEAR 2N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AT 18/0300 UTC
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUING ALONG 28N87W TO
26N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM
23N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
DIGGING S OVER THE W GULF FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS E TEXAS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM W
CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
23N91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF A LINE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. STATIONARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
N/CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 29N88W WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO 24N91W FRI MORNING WITH THE LOW NEAR
30N85W AND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N89W FRI EVENING. BOTH
FRONT/LOW WILL MOVE  E OF THE GULF BY SAT MORNING. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW THE LOW WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA E OF 69W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
18N70W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN AS A WEAK LOW MOVES
INTO THE SW ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE SW PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW
VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL FLATTEN OUT
THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 18/0300 UTC NEAR 32N72W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 650 NM NE OF
BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC ARE SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS THAT
EXTEND THROUGH 32N16W ALONG 25N25W TO 20N36W WITH A SECOND FROM
33N24W TO 22N40W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH FRI. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 180539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE NEAR
29N88W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES E OF THE GULF. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES NEAR 2N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AT 18/0300 UTC
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUING ALONG 28N87W TO
26N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM
23N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
DIGGING S OVER THE W GULF FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS E TEXAS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM W
CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
23N91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF A LINE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. STATIONARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
N/CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 29N88W WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO 24N91W FRI MORNING WITH THE LOW NEAR
30N85W AND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N89W FRI EVENING. BOTH
FRONT/LOW WILL MOVE  E OF THE GULF BY SAT MORNING. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW THE LOW WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA E OF 69W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
18N70W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN AS A WEAK LOW MOVES
INTO THE SW ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE SW PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW
VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL FLATTEN OUT
THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 18/0300 UTC NEAR 32N72W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 650 NM NE OF
BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC ARE SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS THAT
EXTEND THROUGH 32N16W ALONG 25N25W TO 20N36W WITH A SECOND FROM
33N24W TO 22N40W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH FRI. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE SWELL FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM/GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
PROPAGATED WELL SW OF THE AREA NEAR 10N105W AND CONTINUES TO
MIX WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. COMBINED SEAS
WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 07N104W LATE TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG A NORTHWARD DRIFTING WARM FRONT
OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NE ACROSS FL ON FRI IT WILL DRAG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT E AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS WILL
SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI EVENING WITH A MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY
NE 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 10N85W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES WSW TO 05N101W TO
05N113W TO BEYOND 03N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG AND
TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE
ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N83W TO 05N87W TO
06N94W TO 04N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE N
OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 04N120W TO 06N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AT 31N122W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND
24N140W AND ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL OF MEXICO
TO A BASE AT 23N100W. A BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 07N130W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS TO A SHARP
CREST AMPLIFYING N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS TO BEYOND 09N140W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS RIDGE
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ
AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 13N105W. THIN LINE OF
MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 12.5N102W TO 07N120W
AND FROM 02N113W TO 03N118W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
E ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE...WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N140W TO 25N115W TO ACROSS MEXICO
BETWEEN 18-24N...THEN TURNING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM
15N92W TO 07N107W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 15N E OF 93W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED WITH SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED
NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 16N102W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 05N TO
THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND
NE SWELL AND STILL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE
SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W WITH
SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD S SWELL. THE SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BEFORE REACHING THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT EXPECTED TILL EARLY MON. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL ARRIVING AT 30N140W LATE SAT AND
REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE SWELL FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM/GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
PROPAGATED WELL SW OF THE AREA NEAR 10N105W AND CONTINUES TO
MIX WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. COMBINED SEAS
WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 07N104W LATE TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG A NORTHWARD DRIFTING WARM FRONT
OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NE ACROSS FL ON FRI IT WILL DRAG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT E AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS WILL
SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI EVENING WITH A MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY
NE 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 10N85W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES WSW TO 05N101W TO
05N113W TO BEYOND 03N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG AND
TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE
ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N83W TO 05N87W TO
06N94W TO 04N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE N
OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 04N120W TO 06N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AT 31N122W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND
24N140W AND ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL OF MEXICO
TO A BASE AT 23N100W. A BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 07N130W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS TO A SHARP
CREST AMPLIFYING N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS TO BEYOND 09N140W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS RIDGE
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ
AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 13N105W. THIN LINE OF
MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 12.5N102W TO 07N120W
AND FROM 02N113W TO 03N118W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
E ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE...WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N140W TO 25N115W TO ACROSS MEXICO
BETWEEN 18-24N...THEN TURNING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM
15N92W TO 07N107W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 15N E OF 93W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED WITH SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED
NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 16N102W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 05N TO
THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND
NE SWELL AND STILL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE
SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W WITH
SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD S SWELL. THE SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BEFORE REACHING THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT EXPECTED TILL EARLY MON. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL ARRIVING AT 30N140W LATE SAT AND
REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 180003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 27N82W TO 27N87W TO 26N94W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9
FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 89W FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A WARM FRONT
FROM 30N83W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR
28.5N88W. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER
TO 24N92W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...
WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALE FORCE WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET...ALSO WITHIN 90 NM NORTHWEST AND NORTH QUADRANTS OF
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N14W TO 1N23W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 3S36W AND 2S39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2S TO 4S BETWEEN 24W AND
28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
4N TO 4S BETWEEN 18W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO. MOST OF THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
ACCOMPANYING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. SOME CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
REMAINS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
70W. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N76W...TO
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W...TO 26N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 24N92W 22N94W 19N94W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN ALABAMA AND
LOUISIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE NEARBY WATERS FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND IN
CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KGUL...A CEILING AT 6500
FEET AT KHQI...KGBK...KCRH...A CEILING AT 7500 FEET AT KVBS...
KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS
WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBBF...
KBQX...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM
FALFURRIAS TO VICTORIA AND ROCKPORT. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PALACIOS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND THE LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SPOTTY RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF MARIANNA. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED AT TIMES IN APALACHICOLA AND IN TALLAHASSEE. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PERRY FLORIDA. LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN
COVER PUNTA GORDA AND SARASOTA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE AREA FROM FORT MYERS TO NAPLES. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W... TO
THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE WEST OF 80W...
IN THE SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.48 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.24 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.05 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA.
LOW CLOUDS WITH NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. IT IS RAINING AROUND
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE FIRST18
HOURS OR SO. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE TIME...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N57W 23N57W
17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO PHASE WITH THE ALREADY-
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THAT PART OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 34N29W 24N46W THAT IS
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH IS PART OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N74W TO
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N70W
TO 31N35W TO 24N35W TO 19N64W TO 31N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 180003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 27N82W TO 27N87W TO 26N94W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9
FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 89W FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A WARM FRONT
FROM 30N83W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR
28.5N88W. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER
TO 24N92W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...
WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALE FORCE WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET...ALSO WITHIN 90 NM NORTHWEST AND NORTH QUADRANTS OF
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N14W TO 1N23W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 3S36W AND 2S39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2S TO 4S BETWEEN 24W AND
28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
4N TO 4S BETWEEN 18W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO. MOST OF THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
ACCOMPANYING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. SOME CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
REMAINS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
70W. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N76W...TO
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W...TO 26N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 24N92W 22N94W 19N94W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN ALABAMA AND
LOUISIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE NEARBY WATERS FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND IN
CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KGUL...A CEILING AT 6500
FEET AT KHQI...KGBK...KCRH...A CEILING AT 7500 FEET AT KVBS...
KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS
WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBBF...
KBQX...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM
FALFURRIAS TO VICTORIA AND ROCKPORT. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PALACIOS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND THE LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SPOTTY RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF MARIANNA. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED AT TIMES IN APALACHICOLA AND IN TALLAHASSEE. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PERRY FLORIDA. LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN
COVER PUNTA GORDA AND SARASOTA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE AREA FROM FORT MYERS TO NAPLES. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W... TO
THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE WEST OF 80W...
IN THE SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.48 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.24 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.05 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA.
LOW CLOUDS WITH NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. IT IS RAINING AROUND
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE FIRST18
HOURS OR SO. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE TIME...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N57W 23N57W
17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO PHASE WITH THE ALREADY-
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THAT PART OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 34N29W 24N46W THAT IS
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH IS PART OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N74W TO
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N70W
TO 31N35W TO 24N35W TO 19N64W TO 31N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE SWELL FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM/GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS
EQUATORIAL S SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR
07N104W LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG A NORTHWARD
DRIFTING WARM FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TONIGHT. AS
THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE IT WILL MOVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT E AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI EVENING WITH A MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY
NE 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 10N85W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES WSW TO 05N101W TO
05N114W TO BEYOND 03N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 05.5N82W TO 04.5N99W AND
FROM 10N91W TO 05.5N95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND
TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
08N103W TO 04N108W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 04N122W TO 06N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AT 31N125W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND
25N140W AND ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL OF MEXICO TO A BASE AT 22N103W. A
BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR FOLLOW THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NW OLD
MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 08N129W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS TO A SHARP
CREST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO
EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS TO BEYOND
13N140W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS RIDGE ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A
FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 14N109W. DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN THE
ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
TROPICS FROM 06-17N BETWEEN 107-127W...EXCEPT FOR A THIN LINE OF
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 02N116W TO 03N120W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER
ANTICYCLONE...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W
TO 25N116W TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N96W WHERE THE
MOISTURE TURNS NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM
16N95W TO 03N113W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 15N E OF 94W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
10N80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 16N102W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 05N TO
THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND
NE SWELL AND STILL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE
SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT NE OF THE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W WITH
SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD S SWELL. THE SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BEFORE REACHING THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT EXPECTED TILL EARLY MON. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL ARRIVING AT 30N140W LATE SAT AND
REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE SWELL FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM/GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS
EQUATORIAL S SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR
07N104W LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG A NORTHWARD
DRIFTING WARM FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TONIGHT. AS
THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE IT WILL MOVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT E AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI EVENING WITH A MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY
NE 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 10N85W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES WSW TO 05N101W TO
05N114W TO BEYOND 03N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 05.5N82W TO 04.5N99W AND
FROM 10N91W TO 05.5N95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND
TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
08N103W TO 04N108W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 04N122W TO 06N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AT 31N125W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND
25N140W AND ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL OF MEXICO TO A BASE AT 22N103W. A
BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR FOLLOW THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NW OLD
MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 08N129W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS TO A SHARP
CREST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO
EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS TO BEYOND
13N140W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS RIDGE ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A
FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 14N109W. DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN THE
ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
TROPICS FROM 06-17N BETWEEN 107-127W...EXCEPT FOR A THIN LINE OF
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 02N116W TO 03N120W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER
ANTICYCLONE...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W
TO 25N116W TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N96W WHERE THE
MOISTURE TURNS NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM
16N95W TO 03N113W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 15N E OF 94W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
10N80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 16N102W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 05N TO
THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND
NE SWELL AND STILL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE
SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT NE OF THE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W WITH
SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD S SWELL. THE SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BEFORE REACHING THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT EXPECTED TILL EARLY MON. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL ARRIVING AT 30N140W LATE SAT AND
REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST TONIGHT...INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR 29N88W BY EARLY FRI.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS WITHIN 60
IN THE NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER FOR WINDS OF 30-35 KT. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THE CONTINUES TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S
BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 3N
BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND TO THE N OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES THROUGH 26N87W TO 25N94W. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 90W. AN INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 27.5N91W
TO 25N94W. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND RESULT
IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TOMORROW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
60 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 1200 UTC FRI. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO
THE SW N ATLANTIC. REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF A BROAD FLAT RIDGE PREVAILED MAINLY E OF 90W WITH COPIUS AMOUNTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING
FROM 24N91W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE WAS SHIFTING E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC. A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH CLIPPED THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM S OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA ALONG 75W...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER EXTENDING FROM MARTINIQUE
TO ANTIGUA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...15-20 KT FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR A MAXIMUM. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FLATTENING MID-UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 27N ALONG 75W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N72W THROUGH 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. ISOLATED AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER SE FLORIDA IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N52W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH
32N37W TO 25N55W AND WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD E OF A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS TO 24N28W. A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST TONIGHT...INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR 29N88W BY EARLY FRI.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS WITHIN 60
IN THE NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER FOR WINDS OF 30-35 KT. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THE CONTINUES TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S
BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 3N
BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND TO THE N OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES THROUGH 26N87W TO 25N94W. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 90W. AN INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 27.5N91W
TO 25N94W. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND RESULT
IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TOMORROW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
60 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 1200 UTC FRI. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO
THE SW N ATLANTIC. REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF A BROAD FLAT RIDGE PREVAILED MAINLY E OF 90W WITH COPIUS AMOUNTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING
FROM 24N91W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE WAS SHIFTING E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC. A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH CLIPPED THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM S OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA ALONG 75W...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER EXTENDING FROM MARTINIQUE
TO ANTIGUA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...15-20 KT FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR A MAXIMUM. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FLATTENING MID-UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 27N ALONG 75W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N72W THROUGH 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. ISOLATED AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER SE FLORIDA IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N52W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH
32N37W TO 25N55W AND WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD E OF A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS TO 24N28W. A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST TONIGHT...INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR 29N88W BY EARLY FRI.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS WITHIN 60
IN THE NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER FOR WINDS OF 30-35 KT. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THE CONTINUES TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S
BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 3N
BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND TO THE N OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES THROUGH 26N87W TO 25N94W. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 90W. AN INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 27.5N91W
TO 25N94W. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND RESULT
IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TOMORROW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
60 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 1200 UTC FRI. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO
THE SW N ATLANTIC. REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF A BROAD FLAT RIDGE PREVAILED MAINLY E OF 90W WITH COPIUS AMOUNTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING
FROM 24N91W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE WAS SHIFTING E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC. A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH CLIPPED THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM S OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA ALONG 75W...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER EXTENDING FROM MARTINIQUE
TO ANTIGUA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...15-20 KT FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR A MAXIMUM. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FLATTENING MID-UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 27N ALONG 75W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N72W THROUGH 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. ISOLATED AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER SE FLORIDA IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N52W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH
32N37W TO 25N55W AND WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD E OF A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS TO 24N28W. A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST TONIGHT...INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR 29N88W BY EARLY FRI.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS WITHIN 60
IN THE NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER FOR WINDS OF 30-35 KT. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THE CONTINUES TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S
BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 3N
BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND TO THE N OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES THROUGH 26N87W TO 25N94W. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 90W. AN INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 27.5N91W
TO 25N94W. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND RESULT
IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TOMORROW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
60 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 1200 UTC FRI. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO
THE SW N ATLANTIC. REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF A BROAD FLAT RIDGE PREVAILED MAINLY E OF 90W WITH COPIUS AMOUNTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING
FROM 24N91W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE WAS SHIFTING E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC. A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH CLIPPED THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM S OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA ALONG 75W...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER EXTENDING FROM MARTINIQUE
TO ANTIGUA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...15-20 KT FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR A MAXIMUM. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FLATTENING MID-UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 27N ALONG 75W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N72W THROUGH 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. ISOLATED AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER SE FLORIDA IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N52W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH
32N37W TO 25N55W AND WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD E OF A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS TO 24N28W. A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171528
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW A BRIEF
GALE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE BASICALLY N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W
WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE BY SAT
EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM FROM 08N84W TO 06N100W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND
88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N
BETWEEN 128W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE NW CORNER N OF 24N W OF 120W DRIFTING E. A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ELSEWHERE W OF 110W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N130W TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 32N115W. A 70 TO 90 KT
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
EXTENDS FROM 17N140W TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 29N114W. A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF 90W. EXPECT THE NW CORNER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
E REACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE
TRADEWIND FLOW TO RELAX SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR
30N143W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERS
THE AREA BASICALLY FROM 05N TO 18N W OF 127W. ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATES SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADEWIND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W.
ELSEWHERE...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING
LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. 8 FT SWELL ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.
MOREOVER...SOME 8 FT SOME CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS OVER
FORECAST WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL
LAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MORE SWELL...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE
FROM 12N105W TO 12N100W TO 06N98W TO 06N102W TO 12N105W WITH
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL.
THIS SWELL WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LASTLY... THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 89W PRESENTLY HAS WINDS 20 TO
25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING.

$$
FORMOSA



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