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000
AXNT20 KNHC 291056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW
THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 30/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...
NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE LOCALLY GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N16W AND 04N26W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 04N26W
04N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 05W AND 12W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO
01N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 03N46W TO 03N52W
TO 08N60W TO 03N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 28N
SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS
FROM 90W EASTWARD. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KDLP....KMIS...AND KMDJ.

IFR CONDITIONS...KVBS...KVQT...KEIR...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG....KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...
KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN BOOTHVILLE. MVFR IS MIXED WITH IFR
ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF
SHORES. MVFR IN EVERGREEN. FLORIDA...MVFR IN DESTIN. LIFR IN THE
PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...IN MARIANNA...AND IN
APALACHICOLA. IFR IN PERRY. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AT THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 64W...FROM THE ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W... INCLUDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N IN HAITI TO 24N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...NO NEW OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE SINCE
THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS OR SO. A
TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO.
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N31W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N31W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 33N29W AND 30N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
30N26W TO 22N30W 18N40W 18N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N
BETWEEN 27W AND 341W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE COLD FRONT.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 64W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N54W 29N55W 25N54W
22N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO
29N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N61W
26N62W 24N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N71W 24N75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N69W 29N72W 26N73W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... TO 13N34W AND
13N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N95W TO 06N105W TO 07N113W TO
05N119W WHERE IT THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THERE TO
05N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 121W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W
AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH IS LOCATED
BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 13N95W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE N WATERS. STRONG SW WINDS WITH THE JET ARE TRANSPORTING
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD TOWARDS BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
ITCZ MAINLY BETWEEN 100W AND 110W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS IS NOTED PER
SCATTEROMETER DATA JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 117W-123W
WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE NE WATERS N OF
27N E OF 117W. SEAS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION...PARTICULARLY N OF 22N E OF 120W TO
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND
11 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N144W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NE TO E TRADES TO EXIST FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 130W. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO SAT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE INTENSITY.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
LATE SAT NIGHT WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT S OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO BRING NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR SW TO W WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT S OF THE FRONT TO 29.5N. MAINLY FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT...MERGING WITH
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W
TODAY. THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. LARGE SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 110W. THE SWELL TRAIN WITH
A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 18-19 SECONDS IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TODAY.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 04N18W AND 04N26W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N13W
03N42W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 04W AND
07W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 05N23W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N
BETWEEN 07W AND 14W...AND FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THAT WAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 89W...HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KGRY...KGRY...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...

IFR CONDITIONS...KVQT

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG....KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KVBS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS FROM SUGAR LAND TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE WESTERN HALF...VFR/NO CEILINGS IN
THE EASTERN HALF. MVFR IN GULF SHORES AND EVERGREEN. FLORIDA...
LIFR IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA AND IN MARIANNA. IFR IN APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE. LIFR
IN PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N69W TO 19N70W AT THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N
TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...LIGHT RAIN
AT 29/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000 FEET. A CLOUD
CEILING AT 30000 FEET...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...RAIN AND THUNDER.
LA ROMANA...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 29/0000 UTC. PUNTA CANA...THUNDER...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800
FEET...MVFR. SANTIAGO...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN. PUERTO PLATA...
A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800 FEET...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS OR SO. A
TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO.
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N31W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N31W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 33N30W AND 31N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
31N26W TO 26N27W 20N35W 19N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN
28W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 65W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N58W 24N62W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
FROM 24N69W TO 19N70W AT THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A THIRD SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W 28N71W 26N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS FROM 26N
TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.04 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N19W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
TO 12N37W AND 12N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 04N18W AND 04N26W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N13W
03N42W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 04W AND
07W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 05N23W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N
BETWEEN 07W AND 14W...AND FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THAT WAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 89W...HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KGRY...KGRY...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...

IFR CONDITIONS...KVQT

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG....KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KVBS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS FROM SUGAR LAND TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE WESTERN HALF...VFR/NO CEILINGS IN
THE EASTERN HALF. MVFR IN GULF SHORES AND EVERGREEN. FLORIDA...
LIFR IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA AND IN MARIANNA. IFR IN APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE. LIFR
IN PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N69W TO 19N70W AT THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N
TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...LIGHT RAIN
AT 29/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000 FEET. A CLOUD
CEILING AT 30000 FEET...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...RAIN AND THUNDER.
LA ROMANA...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 29/0000 UTC. PUNTA CANA...THUNDER...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800
FEET...MVFR. SANTIAGO...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN. PUERTO PLATA...
A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800 FEET...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS OR SO. A
TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO.
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N31W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N31W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 33N30W AND 31N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
31N26W TO 26N27W 20N35W 19N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN
28W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 65W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N58W 24N62W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
FROM 24N69W TO 19N70W AT THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A THIRD SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W 28N71W 26N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS FROM 26N
TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.04 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N19W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
TO 12N37W AND 12N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290244
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N91W TO 08N102W TO 07N105W TO
09N115W WHERE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED IT THEN
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THERE TO 09N115W TO 07N125W TO
05N134W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-
97W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-108W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-
124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 112W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA NEAR 11N98W WITH IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED TO
THE S OF 21N AND E OF ABOUT 128W. N OF 21N...BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING IS PRESENT E OF 128W...AND W OF 128W WITH A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER SW UTAH SW TO 26N121W TO 20N134W TO SW OF THE AREA AT
16N140W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE
ARIZONA TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 28N120W AND NW
TO 29N128W. THE FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY S AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS WAS
CAPTURED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THU AFTERNOON JUST N OF 32N
BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
INLAND NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRI. A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE JET
STREAM BRANCH IS ALONG THE POINTS 13N132W TO 21N120W TO
22N110W...AND EASTWARD TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS WITH THE JET ARE TRANSPORTING OVERCAST TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM NEAR
MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. THESE CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE
JET STREAM W OF 116W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE JET E OF
116W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION IS HELPING
TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OCCURRING THERE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N144W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N140W TO 25N130W 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES TO EXIST FROM 09N-21N W OF 132W.
A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
LATE SAT NIGHT WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT S OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO BRING NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE
INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF SEAS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290244
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N91W TO 08N102W TO 07N105W TO
09N115W WHERE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED IT THEN
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THERE TO 09N115W TO 07N125W TO
05N134W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-
97W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-108W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-
124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 112W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA NEAR 11N98W WITH IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED TO
THE S OF 21N AND E OF ABOUT 128W. N OF 21N...BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING IS PRESENT E OF 128W...AND W OF 128W WITH A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER SW UTAH SW TO 26N121W TO 20N134W TO SW OF THE AREA AT
16N140W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE
ARIZONA TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 28N120W AND NW
TO 29N128W. THE FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY S AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS WAS
CAPTURED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THU AFTERNOON JUST N OF 32N
BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
INLAND NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRI. A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE JET
STREAM BRANCH IS ALONG THE POINTS 13N132W TO 21N120W TO
22N110W...AND EASTWARD TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS WITH THE JET ARE TRANSPORTING OVERCAST TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM NEAR
MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. THESE CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE
JET STREAM W OF 116W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE JET E OF
116W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION IS HELPING
TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OCCURRING THERE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N144W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N140W TO 25N130W 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES TO EXIST FROM 09N-21N W OF 132W.
A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
LATE SAT NIGHT WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT S OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO BRING NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE
INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF SEAS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 282333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 11W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 51W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N83W TO 28N87W TO SE
LOUISIANA AT 29N90W MOVING S. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NE GULF AND COASTAL STATES N OF 28N BETWEEN 82W-92W. 10-
20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST
SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE
NE GULF ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE
OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE INLAND OVER ALL OF E TEXAS DUE TO A COLD
FRONT. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
GULF W OF 95W...AND ELSEWHERE OVER FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-5 FT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS... AND
S GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND
PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF HISPANIOLA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO
CONTINUE.

HISPANIOLA...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 27N59W TO
23N63W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 55W-67W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N32W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N27W TO 24N30W
TO 20N40W TO 20N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO DO LIKEWISE WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282204
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N87W TO 11N97W TO 08N103W TO
07N110W WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS IT THEN TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THERE TO 09N116W TO 07N126W TO 05N132W TO
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-99W...WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 112W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-127W...AND BETWEEN 128W-130W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
06N89W TO 06N93W...AND N OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE
FROM 11N96W TO 13N93W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA NEAR 12N99W WITH IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED TO
THE S OF 21N AND E OF ABOUT 128W. N OF 21N...BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING IS PRESENT E OF 128W...AND W OF 128W WITH A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER SW UTAH SW TO 26N121W TO 20N134W TO SW OF THE AREA AT
16N140W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE
ARIZONA TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 28N120W AND NW
TO 29N128W. THE FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY S AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS WAS
CAPTURED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON JUST N OF 32N
BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
INLAND NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRI. A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE JET
STREAM BRANCH IS ALONG THE POINTS 13N132W TO 21N120W TO
22N110W...AND EASTWARD TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS WITH THE JET ARE TRANSPORTING OVERCAST TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM NEAR
MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. THESE CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE
JET STREAM W OF 116W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE JET E OF
116W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION IS HELPING
TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OCCURRING THERE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N145W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N140W TO 25N130W 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES TO EXIST FROM 09N-21N W OF 132W.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FAR NE PART
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE SWELL IS
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N87W TO 11N97W TO 08N103W TO
07N110W WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS IT THEN TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THERE TO 09N116W TO 07N126W TO 05N132W TO
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-99W...WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 112W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-127W...AND BETWEEN 128W-130W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
06N89W TO 06N93W...AND N OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE
FROM 11N96W TO 13N93W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA NEAR 12N99W WITH IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED TO
THE S OF 21N AND E OF ABOUT 128W. N OF 21N...BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING IS PRESENT E OF 128W...AND W OF 128W WITH A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SW TO 26N121W TO 20N134W TO SW OF THE AREA
AT 16N140W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
SE ARIZONA TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 28N120W AND
NW TO 29N128W. THE FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY S AS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS
WAS CAPTURED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON JUST N OF 32N
BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
INLAND NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRI. A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE JET
STREAM BRANCH IS ALONG 13N132W 21N120W 22N110W...AND E TO OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WITH THE JET ARE
TRANSPORTING OVERCAST TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD
TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM NEAR MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. THESE
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE JET STREAM W OF 116W...AND
WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE JET E OF 116W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER EASTERN PORTION IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OCCURRING
THERE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N145W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N140W TO 25N130W 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES TO EXIST FROM 09N-21N W OF 132W.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FAR NE PART
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE SWELL IS
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 5N17W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W AND FROM 5N-9N W OF 50W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS AND GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 90W. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W
OF 89W. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGHS THAT EFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN
YESTERDAY ARE NO LONGER IN THE AREA BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN
63W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 16N TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 66W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. E-SE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING WITH FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GIVING THE ISLAND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM 32N79W TO
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 25 KT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N51W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA THEN SE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 71W FROM 25N-28N. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 25N58W ALONG
25N63W TO 24N68W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-69W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 30N33W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N29W ALONG 25N31W TO 21N40W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N50W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N.
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 20N30W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.
THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH SAT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THE WEAKER SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 5N17W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W AND FROM 5N-9N W OF 50W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS AND GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 90W. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W
OF 89W. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGHS THAT EFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN
YESTERDAY ARE NO LONGER IN THE AREA BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN
63W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 16N TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 66W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. E-SE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING WITH FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GIVING THE ISLAND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM 32N79W TO
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 25 KT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N51W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA THEN SE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 71W FROM 25N-28N. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 25N58W ALONG
25N63W TO 24N68W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-69W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 30N33W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N29W ALONG 25N31W TO 21N40W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N50W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N.
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 20N30W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.
THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH SAT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THE WEAKER SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N97W TO 07N105W TO 08N110W. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N110W TO 09N115W TO 07N126W TO BEYOND
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN AN AREA
BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 09N110W TO 03N138W TO 11N127W TO 09N110W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA TO 12N110W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS PRESENT OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED FROM
31.5N114W TO 31N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
COLD FRONT AND THE TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS GENERATING FRESH TO
STRONG NW TO N FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 29.5N
AND 30.5N AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BETWEEN 28N AND 29N.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SAME AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR GALE
FORCE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SWELLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LATEST ALTIMETRY SUGGESTS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS STILL
TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 12 FEET AS IT CROSSES THE EQUATOR W OF THE
GALAPAGOS. THE ECMWF MODEL IS INITIALIZING WELL WITH THESE SWELL
HEIGHTS SO WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF FOR NEAR TERM SEA HEIGHTS IN
THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PERSIST IN
THIS AREA AS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...TRADE-WIND AND NW SWELL ALL
BEGIN TO MERGE. THE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TONIGHT AND SAT.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEAKENS THE RIDGE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RETIGHTEN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$
MCELROY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 06N15W 03N25W
02N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO
03N BETWEEN 03W AND 06W...BETWEEN 14W AND 15W ALONG 06N...FROM
03N TO 06N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W...AND FROM 07N TO 08N ALONG 54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE THAT IS
ALONG 28N85W 32N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N84W 30N83W BEYOND 32N82W...FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N77W...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KVAF...AND KEMK.

IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KHHV...KEHC...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KVBS...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...
KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KIKT...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON SOUTHWARD...IFR IN
VICTORIA AND LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LIFR IN JASPER. LIFR IN HUNTSVILLE. IFR IN CONROE AND TOMBALL.
IFR IN HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW
IBERIA. IFR IN LAFAYETTE. MVFR IN GALLIANO AND BOOTHVILLE. HEAVY
RAIN IN BATON ROUGE. THUNDER IS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN IN SLIDELL. IFR AND MVFR ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING
REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. THUNDER IN GULFPORT. THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN IN
BILOXI. MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR IN GULF SHORES. LIFR
AT THE CAIRNS ARMY FIELD IN FORT RUCKER AND IN DOTHAN.
FLORIDA...MVFR IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN MARIANNA. IFR IN PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH SPANS THE BAHAMAS...
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD.

THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 20N68W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG NORTHERN PUERTO RICO 24
HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...MVFR CEILING AT 1600 FEET.
PUNTA CANA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN PART OF THE
OBSERVATIONS FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN WERE
IN THE OBSERVATION A FEW HOURS AGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NOW...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...
AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS HAITI...AND
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N34W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM A 32N29W TRIPLE
POINT...TO 28N30W 21N40W 21N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 22N44W TO 21N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N55W TO
22N64W AND 20N68W AND 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT FROM 21N40W NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 29N
BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W
INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N101W TO 07N115W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 06N126W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH 22N120W TO 15N107W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING
PREVAILS ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED
FROM 32N119W TO 31N130W. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW IS FROM
30N-32N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 32N INCLUDING ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE FILTERING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING A BRIEF SURGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW BEHIND IT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
GALE JUST AHEAD OF IT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT... HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL REACH THE SW FACING
SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...THEN WILL REACH
THE PACIFIC SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SWELL WILL DECAY SAT NIGHT
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS REGION THROUGH SAT MORNING...
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH SE OF 30N140W MON NIGHT WITH NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ITS WAKE FOR TUE.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N101W TO 07N115W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 06N126W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH 22N120W TO 15N107W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING
PREVAILS ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED
FROM 32N119W TO 31N130W. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW IS FROM
30N-32N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 32N INCLUDING ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE FILTERING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING A BRIEF SURGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW BEHIND IT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
GALE JUST AHEAD OF IT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT... HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL REACH THE SW FACING
SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...THEN WILL REACH
THE PACIFIC SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SWELL WILL DECAY SAT NIGHT
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS REGION THROUGH SAT MORNING...
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH SE OF 30N140W MON NIGHT WITH NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ITS WAKE FOR TUE.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N18W 03N30W 03N42W
AND 01N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N
TO 06N BETWEEN 15W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS
SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE/SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N/28N ALONG 85W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...AND KGRY.

IFR CONDITIONS...KGUL...KGHB...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...
KEIR...KSPR...KATP...AND KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MOSTLY IFR WITH A FEW MVFR OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOWER
VALLEY. IFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI AND ALICE AND KINGSVILLE. LIFR IN VICTORIA.
IFR IN PORT LAVACA AND PALACIOS...IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/ LAKE
JACKSON. A MIXTURE OF IFR AND MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA...MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...VFR IN GALVESTON. LIFR IN
CONROE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW IBERIA. MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...IFR IN MARIANNA AND PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CUBA INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH
SPANS CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD.

THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 20N60W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG NORTHERN PUERTO RICO 24
HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VFR CEILING AT 28/0000 UTC. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...RAIN AND
THUNDER. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW
REMAINING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AFTER EARLIER RAINSHOWERS.
SANTIAGO...A MVFR CLOUD CEILING AT 1600 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET...
VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...
AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS HAITI...AND
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N36W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM A 32N30W TRIPLE
POINT...TO 29N30W 22N40W 22N46W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 22N46W TO 23N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N56W TO
24N64W 22N68W AND 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM
23N36W NORTHWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...AND FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
SAN JUAN...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280227
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N116W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN W OF 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH 12N105W. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOUND OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NW MEXICO OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WINDS
HAVE STRENGTHENED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY THU NIGHT. NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FORECAST
WATERS. SEAS WILL IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY COMBINED SEAS
ARE IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. A NEW SET
OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL REACH THE SW FACING SHORES OF
THE GALAPAGOS BY THU NIGHT...THEN REACH THE PACIFIC SHORES OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINED SEAS IN THE
6-9 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THURSDAY AND PROPAGATE SE.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272113
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N115W TO 06N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF
130W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 31N144W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 17N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF
120W. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE SAME OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING
INTO THE AREA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE COVERING THE NORTHERN
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
ARE ALSO COVERING THE AREA OF TRADEWINDS DESCRIBED ABOVE WHERE
THE NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH NE TRADEWIND SWELL. CROSS EQUATORIAL
SW SWELL WILL MERGE WITH THE NW SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GAPE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIES OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N21W TO 3N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-
27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 3W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING A SQUALL LINE AT
27/1500 UTC FROM OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO 29N93W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO NE MEXICO NEAR
25N98W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE SQUALL LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SE NEAR 25
KT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE E GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SQUALL
LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT PULSING
STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED S OF
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT FRONT ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS GIVING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER HAITI WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT
FRONT ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS
GIVING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER HAITI
WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU. THUS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N40W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 27N37W TO
23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N56W THEN CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
18N70W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 25N-28N.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1019 MB
HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N26W.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THU
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N21W TO 3N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-
27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 3W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING A SQUALL LINE AT
27/1500 UTC FROM OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO 29N93W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO NE MEXICO NEAR
25N98W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE SQUALL LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SE NEAR 25
KT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE E GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SQUALL
LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT PULSING
STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED S OF
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT FRONT ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS GIVING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER HAITI WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT
FRONT ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS
GIVING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER HAITI
WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU. THUS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N40W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 27N37W TO
23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N56W THEN CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
18N70W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 25N-28N.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1019 MB
HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N26W.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THU
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 07N91W AND FROM 09N98W TO
07N105W TO 08N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N115W TO 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
14N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W...AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND
100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 11N111W TO 06N125W...AND FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN
129W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA STEMMING FROM 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 31N140W THROUGH 23N120W TO 17N109W. BROAD AND
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED ACROSS NW MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOUND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PER AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS AROUND 27/0518
UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS
NW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG N OF 30N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ITS WAKE.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE FUNNELED THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
BY LATE THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. NW SWELLS OF 6 TO 10
FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING FROM THE COSTA RICA COAST WESTWARD
FROM 07N-10N TO 110W. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. CURRENTLY COMBINED SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SW AND
NW SWELL. A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL BREACH THE
EQUATOR AT 110W TONIGHT...REACHING THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE
GALAPAGOS BY THU NIGHT...THEN REACHING THE PACIFIC SHORES OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9
FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN...SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE ABOVE DISCUSSED RIDGING IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT COVER THIS
REMAINING AREA...EXCEPT IN THE NW CORNER CLOSEST TO THE HIGH
CENTER WHERE SEAS ARE ONLY 4 TO 6 FT UNDER LIGHT WINDS. A NEW
SET OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION BY THU MORNING AS
THE HIGH TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN DUE TO A DECAYING COLD FRONT...
WHICH WILL BE PROGRESSING S ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
COLD FRONT WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W 08N15W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N15W 04N23W 04N29W TO
02N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 04N SOUTH FROM 15W EASTWARD...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N10W 04N20W 04N30W 05N43W 07N52W
10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N75W...ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA...TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...
KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR FROM HARLINGEN WESTWARD IN THE LOWER VALLEY...MVFR
TO THE EAST OF HARLINGEN. IFR AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVAL AIR
STATION. LIGHT RAIN IN VICTORIA. HEAVY RAIN IN PORT LAVACA. IFR
IN BAY CITY. RAINSHOWERS...SOMETIMES HEAVY...AND THUNDER IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS...EVEN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN
BILOXI AND GULFPORT. IFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR RIGHT AT
THE COAST. LIFR FROM EVERGREEN TO THE CAIRNS AIRFIELD AT FORT
RUCKER TO DOTHAN. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PENSACOLA. LIFR AT WHITING
FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW. IFR IN VALPARAISO AND
DESTIN. LIFR IN MARIANNA AND IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. MVFR IN APALACHICOLA. MVFR AT THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

PLEASE REFER TO THE WEATHER BULLETINS FROM THE NWS OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR DETAILS ABOUT RAIN THAT CONTINUED THERE
DURING TUESDAY...AND ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS. SOME RESIDUAL MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE REMAINS AS THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
BEGINNING AND ENDING.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W
AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 17N73W...TO
14N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO
17N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DIMINISHING IN THE CENTER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUNTA CANA...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR
CEILING. SANTIAGO...MVFR CEILING. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000
FEET...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE...AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF
A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HAITI...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 26N40W
21N52W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 21N52W TO 19N61W. THE FRONT
IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 19N61W...ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO...TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO
30N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15
NM TO 30 NM OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W...AND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N26W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 33N61W TO 29N75W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE
UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N87W TO 10N100W TO 07N110W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N110W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 13N
BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN
81W AND 84W...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W...FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 124W AND
128W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 132W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA STEMMING FROM 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 31N140W THROUGH 26N125W TO 16N108W. BROAD AND
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED ACROSS NW MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROUGHING IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
ACROSS NW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO FRESH TO STRONG N OF 29N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ITS WAKE.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE FUNNELED THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
BY LATE THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. NW SWELLS OF 6-10
FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SW-W FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
WIND CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY COMBINED SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN
MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL
WILL BREACH THE EQUATOR AT 110W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...REACHING THE
SW FACING SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS BY THU EVENING...THEN REACHING
THE PACIFIC SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN...
SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE ABOVE DISCUSSED RIDGING IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT COVER THIS
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT IN THE NW CORNER
CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER WHERE SEAS ARE ONLY 4-6 FT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION
BY THU MORNING AS THE HIGH TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN DUE TO A
DECAYING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DROPPING S THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
NW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W 07N17W AND 05N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N19W 05N27W
04N34W TO 04N40W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 01N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...TO 02N07W 04N13W 04N30W 05N40W 06N46W 06N53W...AND
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KEIR...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...IFR
IN BAY CITY. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF SHORES AND AT THE CAIRNS
AIRFIELD AT FORT RUCKER. FLORIDA...IFR IN PENSACOLA. LIFR AT
WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN MARY ESTHER/
VALPARAISO/DESTIN. IFR IN PANAMA CITY. LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE. MVFR
IN PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

PLEASE REFER TO THE WEATHER BULLETINS FROM NWS OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR DETAILS ABOUT RAIN THAT CONTINUED THERE
DURING TUESDAY...AND ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES EXTENDS FROM 19N62W TO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N
BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N71W...ACROSS
HAITI...TO 17N73W...TO 14N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND
70W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...DRIZZLE IS
BEING REPORTED AT 27/0000 UTC. THE CEILING IS BROKEN AT 4500
FEET. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...RAINSHOWERS ARE
NEARBY AT 27/0000 UTC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING HAS A BASE AT
1800 FEET...MVFR. ANOTHER CLOUD BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. SANTO
DOMINGO...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...
MVFR...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. LA
ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AN OVERCAST CEILING AT
7000 FEET...AT 27/0300 UTC. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AN OVERCAST CEILING AT 7000 FEET. SANTIAGO...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000
FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000 FEET...MVFR...

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE...AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF
A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HAITI...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 34N39W TRIPLE
POINT...THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N38W 26N40W AND 21N53W. THE FRONT IS
STATIONARY FROM 21N53W TO 19N62W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FROM 19N62W TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FROM 19N TO 22N
BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 26N34W
21N43W 20N54W...AND FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N31W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 34N39W-TO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N66W TO 30N77W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W 07N17W AND 05N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N19W 05N27W
04N34W TO 04N40W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 01N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...TO 02N07W 04N13W 04N30W 05N40W 06N46W 06N53W...AND
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KEIR...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...IFR
IN BAY CITY. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF SHORES AND AT THE CAIRNS
AIRFIELD AT FORT RUCKER. FLORIDA...IFR IN PENSACOLA. LIFR AT
WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN MARY ESTHER/
VALPARAISO/DESTIN. IFR IN PANAMA CITY. LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE. MVFR
IN PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

PLEASE REFER TO THE WEATHER BULLETINS FROM NWS OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR DETAILS ABOUT RAIN THAT CONTINUED THERE
DURING TUESDAY...AND ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES EXTENDS FROM 19N62W TO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N
BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N71W...ACROSS
HAITI...TO 17N73W...TO 14N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND
70W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...DRIZZLE IS
BEING REPORTED AT 27/0000 UTC. THE CEILING IS BROKEN AT 4500
FEET. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...RAINSHOWERS ARE
NEARBY AT 27/0000 UTC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING HAS A BASE AT
1800 FEET...MVFR. ANOTHER CLOUD BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. SANTO
DOMINGO...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...
MVFR...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. LA
ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AN OVERCAST CEILING AT
7000 FEET...AT 27/0300 UTC. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AN OVERCAST CEILING AT 7000 FEET. SANTIAGO...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000
FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000 FEET...MVFR...

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE...AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF
A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HAITI...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 34N39W TRIPLE
POINT...THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N38W 26N40W AND 21N53W. THE FRONT IS
STATIONARY FROM 21N53W TO 19N62W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FROM 19N62W TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FROM 19N TO 22N
BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 26N34W
21N43W 20N54W...AND FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N31W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 34N39W-TO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N66W TO 30N77W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06N95W TO 06N110W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THERE TO 07N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND
130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 31N136W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE REACHING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N110W.  THE
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE ITCZ
IS PRODUCING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADEWINDS W OF
120W. THESE WILL DIMINISH SOME EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE UP TO STRONG BREEZE AND
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE UP TO 11 FT FROM A 12 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL IN
THE AFTERMATH OF A NOW-DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR AREA ALONG 32N EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING.  NW WINDS E OF 122W N OF 25N SHOULD CONTINUE AS FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SW TO W
WINDS WILL OCCUR N OF 29N WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THESE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE 8 FT SEAS...DUE TO THE LIMITED
FETCH ACROSS THE GULF. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIESCENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING NOR ARE
LIKELY TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELLS WILL REACH THE EQUATOR LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE
GALAPAGOS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN REACHING THE SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FRIDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLITUDE.

DESPITE QUITE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED TROUGH ALONG 6-8N...NO OUT OF SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06N95W TO 06N110W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THERE TO 07N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND
130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 31N136W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE REACHING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N110W.  THE
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE ITCZ
IS PRODUCING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADEWINDS W OF
120W. THESE WILL DIMINISH SOME EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE UP TO STRONG BREEZE AND
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE UP TO 11 FT FROM A 12 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL IN
THE AFTERMATH OF A NOW-DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR AREA ALONG 32N EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING.  NW WINDS E OF 122W N OF 25N SHOULD CONTINUE AS FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SW TO W
WINDS WILL OCCUR N OF 29N WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THESE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE 8 FT SEAS...DUE TO THE LIMITED
FETCH ACROSS THE GULF. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIESCENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING NOR ARE
LIKELY TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELLS WILL REACH THE EQUATOR LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE
GALAPAGOS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN REACHING THE SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FRIDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLITUDE.

DESPITE QUITE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED TROUGH ALONG 6-8N...NO OUT OF SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND
EXTENDS TO 05N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N31W
TO 04N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA AND A MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS AND APPROACH THE NW GULF COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION
AND WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA FROM 23N72W TO
17N74W. TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO FROM 18N69W TO 19N64W. THESE FEATURES
COMBINE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE E ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
FRONT TO LIFT N AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH THIS...CONVECTION IS
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER HISPANIOLA AT THIS
TIME AS A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES N OF THE ISLAND AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 55W ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 32N72W. TO THE E...A
996 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N46W WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING SW ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT NEAR 32N41W TO 25N45W TO 21N54W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THAT POINT TO 18N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS S OF 22N BETWEEN 59W AND
70W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 26N31W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N
OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N82W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 12N87W TO 06N110W. NORTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 078N116W TO
05N130W TO 03N140W. SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.4S91W TO
03S95W TO 03.4S99W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 83W TO 93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W
AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 240 NM N
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32N133W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SE TO 17N106W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MOVING S
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. THE
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
THE FRONT STALLING OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT
FINALLY DISSIPATES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF THEREAFTER.

THE RIDGING COMBINED WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING ACROSS NW MEXICO
IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 25N OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA. STRONGER
WINDS ARE TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE A DEVELOPING
GALE IS IN PLACE FOR THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING FRESH 8 TO 11 FT NW SWELL SOUTH OF
30N. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A NEW SURGE
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NW-N. THIS NEXT ROUND OF WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE OCCURRING NOR ARE LIKELY TO
BEGIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL REACH THE EQUATOR LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL
TRAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS THU
NIGHT...THEN REACHING THE SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRIDAY
EVENING.

MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES GENERALLY BETWEEN 07N AND 20W WEST
OF 120W AND COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED SWELL DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
HUFFMAN/LANDSEA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND
EXTENDS TO 05N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N30W
TO 05N40W TO 03N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N
BETWEEN 08W AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS
COVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH-EASTERLIES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A THERMAL NON-CONVECTIVE SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO 18N96W. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE BASIN TODAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS TEXAS AND APPROACH THE NW GULF COAST HELPING TO
MAINTAIN FRESH RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN WILL MOVE W TO NW TONIGHT
SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO
19N65W TO 19N72W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN
65W AND 75W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN ONGOING INTERACTION
BETWEEN A MOIST AIRMASS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER
HISPANIOLA TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 65W ANCHORED BY
HIGH PRESSURE N OF BERMUDA AND THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OF 1011 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 26N56W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N63W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A 992 MB LOW NEAR 32N46W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE E OF THE LOW NEAR 31N42W TO
22N52W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
TO 19N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 57W. FRESH TO STRONG W
TO NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N31W COVERS
THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N AND NE OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL DETACH FROM THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUE EAST TO THE E ATLC
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261541
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 06N91W...AND FROM 10N98W
TO 07N111W. THE NORTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N118W TO 02N140W.
THE SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.4S92W TO 02S111W TO 03.4S118W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 83W AND
91W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W... FROM 05N TO 13N
BETWEEN 110W AND 116W...AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 130W AND
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32N133W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SE TO 17N110W. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING S INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT DIPS S THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING BY TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SAME AREA WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ON THU. THE FRONT FINALLY DISSIPATES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF THEREAFTER.

THE RIDGING COMBINED WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING ACROSS NW MEXICO
IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 25N OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA. STRONGER
WINDS ARE TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE A DEVELOPING
GALE IS IN PLACE FOR THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING FRESH 8 TO 13 FT NW SWELL. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A NEW SURGE ANTICIPATED WED
NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW-N. THIS NEXT
ROUND OF WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO FRESH NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF
CABO CORRIENTES.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT PULSING MODERATE
OFFSHORE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL REACH THE EQUATOR LATE WED WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN
WILL ARRIVE AT THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS THU
NIGHT...THEN REACHING THE SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI EVENING.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED
SWELL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
HUFFMAN




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