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000
WTPZ31 KNHC 230845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...KARINA MAINTAINS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 134.4W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1645 MI...2650 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD
OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 230845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 134.4W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 134.4W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 134.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.4N 133.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 132.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.2N 129.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.6N 129.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 134.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 230845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 134.4W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 134.4W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 134.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.4N 133.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 132.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.2N 129.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.6N 129.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 134.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...LOWELL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 126.0W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS....AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...MARIE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 105.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...MARIE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 105.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...LOWELL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 126.0W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS....AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...MARIE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 105.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...MARIE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 105.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...LOWELL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 126.0W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS....AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...MARIE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 105.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...MARIE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 105.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...LOWELL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 126.0W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS....AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230837
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 280SE 220SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 240SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230837
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 280SE 220SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 240SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230837
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 280SE 220SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 240SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230837
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 280SE 220SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 240SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230837
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 280SE 220SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 240SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230837
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 280SE 220SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 240SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230837
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 280SE 220SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 240SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230837
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 280SE 220SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 240SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 126.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 230555
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

SATELITES Y OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE EL AREA DE MAL
TIEMPO CERCA DE LA ESPANOLA CONTINUA SIN PRESENTAR UNA ZONA DE
ROTACION SUPERFICIAL BIEN DEFINIDA. SIN EMBARGO...LA ACTIVIDAD DE
AGUACEROS CONTINUA PRESENTANDO SENALES DE ORGANIZACION Y CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES MAS FAVORABLES PARA EL DESARROLLO DE UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL O TORMENTA MANANA O EL DOMINGO. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE
SISTEMA HOY SE MOVERA HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE Y CERCA DEL
SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS Y SOBRE O CERCA DEL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS EL
DOMINGO. LLUVIAS FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUEN
SOBRE PUERTO RICO Y LA ESPANOLA HOY. VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERA SE ESPARZAN SOBRE EL SURESTE DE
LAS BAHAMAS...LAS ISLAS DE TURKS Y CAICO...Y BAHAMA CENTRAL HASTA EL
DOMINGO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS
PERSONAS DEBIDO A INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE LA ESPANOLA Y
PUERTO RICO. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA
AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR EL DISTURBIO...DEBIDO A QUE PUEDE
QUE SE REQUIERA EMITAR REPENTINAMENTE VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS DE
TORMENTA.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...90 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 230555
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

SATELITES Y OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE EL AREA DE MAL
TIEMPO CERCA DE LA ESPANOLA CONTINUA SIN PRESENTAR UNA ZONA DE
ROTACION SUPERFICIAL BIEN DEFINIDA. SIN EMBARGO...LA ACTIVIDAD DE
AGUACEROS CONTINUA PRESENTANDO SENALES DE ORGANIZACION Y CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES MAS FAVORABLES PARA EL DESARROLLO DE UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL O TORMENTA MANANA O EL DOMINGO. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE
SISTEMA HOY SE MOVERA HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE Y CERCA DEL
SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS Y SOBRE O CERCA DEL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS EL
DOMINGO. LLUVIAS FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUEN
SOBRE PUERTO RICO Y LA ESPANOLA HOY. VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERA SE ESPARZAN SOBRE EL SURESTE DE
LAS BAHAMAS...LAS ISLAS DE TURKS Y CAICO...Y BAHAMA CENTRAL HASTA EL
DOMINGO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS
PERSONAS DEBIDO A INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE LA ESPANOLA Y
PUERTO RICO. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA
AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR EL DISTURBIO...DEBIDO A QUE PUEDE
QUE SE REQUIERA EMITAR REPENTINAMENTE VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS DE
TORMENTA.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...90 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACPN50 PHFO 230546
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII... IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL





000
ACPN50 PHFO 230546
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII... IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ABNT20 KNHC 230532
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and surface data indicate that the area of disturbed
weather near Hispaniola still lacks a well-defined surface
circulation.  However, thunderstorm activity continues to show
signs of organization and environmental conditions are favorable
for the development of a tropical depression or storm today or
Sunday.  This system is forecast to move west-northwestward over or
near the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central
Bahamas on Sunday.  Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to
continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today.  Winds to tropical
storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Central
Bahamas through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning.
Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahama Islands
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical
storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance
notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 230532
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and surface data indicate that the area of disturbed
weather near Hispaniola still lacks a well-defined surface
circulation.  However, thunderstorm activity continues to show
signs of organization and environmental conditions are favorable
for the development of a tropical depression or storm today or
Sunday.  This system is forecast to move west-northwestward over or
near the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central
Bahamas on Sunday.  Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to
continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today.  Winds to tropical
storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Central
Bahamas through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning.
Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahama Islands
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical
storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance
notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED 30 NM MILES N OF THE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W...MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N68W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 67W-71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 64W-73W. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE
BAHAMAS...AND THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG OR NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES. INTERESTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD
MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 25N34W TO 10N34W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN
AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT N OF 21N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W
AND CONTINUES TO 12N20W TO 9N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO
8N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 24W-
27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
30W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF NEAR
29N91W. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF N
OF 24N. 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF 24N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAINS W OF FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 83W-84W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM S OF 26N BETWEEN
90W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE SW
GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC PRODUCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
CENTER OF THE LOW...10-15 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 89W-92W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-85W MAINLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA
NEAR 13N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF CUBA FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 80W-83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE
SPECIAL FEATURE LOW TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HISPANIOLA...

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRESENTLY HAS THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION
OVER THE ISLAND. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT
THE AREA OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO MOVE W TO INCLUDE HAITI OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH MUDSLIDES AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN WITH CENTER NEAR 33N24W WITH RIDGING TO NEAR 30N55W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 22N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE SPECIAL
FEATURE LOW TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230519
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Karina located more than a thousand miles east of the Big Island of
Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located nearly a thousand miles
west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Marie located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230519
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Karina located more than a thousand miles east of the Big Island of
Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located nearly a thousand miles
west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Marie located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230519
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Karina located more than a thousand miles east of the Big Island of
Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located nearly a thousand miles
west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Marie located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230519
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Karina located more than a thousand miles east of the Big Island of
Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located nearly a thousand miles
west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Marie located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230253
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 134.9W AT 23/0300 UTC...
ABOUT 1173 NM E OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM IN THE E AND 90 NM IN THE W
SEMICIRCLES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300
UTC...ABOUT 317 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING WNW OR 285
DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
330 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND IN THE W QUADRANT...AND 240 NM
IN THE N QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300
UTC...ABOUT 852 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 60 NM AND 150 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 300 NM IN
THE NW SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 10N97W. NO
ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND
95W...AND WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 10N106W TO 06N120W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM SW OF A LINE FROM
14N124W TO 17N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR
44N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
AT 30N118W. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF
KARINA AND LOWELL.THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AGAINST THE
RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230253
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 134.9W AT 23/0300 UTC...
ABOUT 1173 NM E OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM IN THE E AND 90 NM IN THE W
SEMICIRCLES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300
UTC...ABOUT 317 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING WNW OR 285
DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
330 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND IN THE W QUADRANT...AND 240 NM
IN THE N QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300
UTC...ABOUT 852 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 60 NM AND 150 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 300 NM IN
THE NW SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 10N97W. NO
ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND
95W...AND WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 10N106W TO 06N120W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM SW OF A LINE FROM
14N124W TO 17N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR
44N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
AT 30N118W. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF
KARINA AND LOWELL.THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AGAINST THE
RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 230248
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA COMPLETES A LOOP AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 134.9W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1690 MI...2715 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.9 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BEVEN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 230247
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 134.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 134.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.8N 134.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 134.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BEVEN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 230247
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 134.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 134.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.8N 134.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 134.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BEVEN





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230245
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.7N 126.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.9N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230245
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.7N 126.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.9N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230245
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER COLD WATER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 125.3W
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS....AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230245
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.7N 126.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.9N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230245
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.7N 126.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.9N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230245
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER COLD WATER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 125.3W
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS....AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230245
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.7N 126.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.9N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230245
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 125.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.7N 126.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.9N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230245
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER COLD WATER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 125.3W
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS....AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230245
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER COLD WATER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 125.3W
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS....AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230243
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 104.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.39 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230243
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 104.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.39 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230242
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE  60SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 104.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230242
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE  60SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 104.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230242
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE  60SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 104.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230242
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE  60SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 104.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 104.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 230008
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
INVESTIGANDO EL DISTURBIO CERCA DE PUERTO RICO Y LA ESPANOLA REPORTO
QUE VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS
AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS. SIN EMBARGO...LOS DATOS Y OBSERVACIONES DE
SUPERFICIE DEL AVION INDICAN QUE EL SISTEMA NO TIENE UNA CIRCULACION
BIEN DEFINIDA EN LA SUPERFICIE. OTRO AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA
FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR EL SISTEMA EL SABADO EN LA
MANANA...DE SER NECESARIO.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADO CON EL SISTEMA ESTAN GRADUALMENTE
TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADO...PERO LA PROXIMIDAD DEL SISTEMA A LA
ESPANOLA PODRIA LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO CUANDO EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA
CERCA O SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE EL SABADO. VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS
Y FUERTES LLUVIAS SON ANTICIPADAS SOBRE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL SURESTE Y
CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO. ESTAS FUERTES LLUVIAS
PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE PELIGRO A
LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE LA ESPANOLA Y
PUERTO RICO. LOS INTERESADOS EN SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS
DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO, YA QUE VIGILANCIA O
AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDO CON POCA
ANTELACION.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...90 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 230008
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
INVESTIGANDO EL DISTURBIO CERCA DE PUERTO RICO Y LA ESPANOLA REPORTO
QUE VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS
AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS. SIN EMBARGO...LOS DATOS Y OBSERVACIONES DE
SUPERFICIE DEL AVION INDICAN QUE EL SISTEMA NO TIENE UNA CIRCULACION
BIEN DEFINIDA EN LA SUPERFICIE. OTRO AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA
FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR EL SISTEMA EL SABADO EN LA
MANANA...DE SER NECESARIO.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADO CON EL SISTEMA ESTAN GRADUALMENTE
TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADO...PERO LA PROXIMIDAD DEL SISTEMA A LA
ESPANOLA PODRIA LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO CUANDO EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA
CERCA O SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE EL SABADO. VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS
Y FUERTES LLUVIAS SON ANTICIPADAS SOBRE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL SURESTE Y
CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO. ESTAS FUERTES LLUVIAS
PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE PELIGRO A
LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE LA ESPANOLA Y
PUERTO RICO. LOS INTERESADOS EN SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS
DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO, YA QUE VIGILANCIA O
AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDO CON POCA
ANTELACION.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...90 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED 130 NM MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W...MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL
WAVE EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N68W. A BAND OF NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SAN JUAN RADAR IS SHOWING A
LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING OVER 100 MILES SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO WITH OTHER CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. OTHER BANDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW FROM 15-23N
BETWEEN 68W-64W. THIS LOW HAS BEEN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE OPEN WATERS
BETWEEN THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG OR NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
INTERESTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N32W TO 27N32W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY
SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 26N68W TO THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 19N68W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N27W TO 9N33W TO 08N39W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N39W TO 08N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-
14N E OF 24W AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 28W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF NEAR
29N91W. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEREOMETER WINDS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT WITH 15 KT EVIDENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL GULF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS NE OF
HISPANIOLA...WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19N68W. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
THE NW BASIN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN
CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
CONVECTION FREE IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15
KT ARE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KT NEAR THE NORTH OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS EAST OF
67W BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY OF 15-25 KT IN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL AFFECT THE GREATER ANTILLES AND OFFSHORE
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOISTURE AND CONVECTION IS INCREASING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION APPROACHES THE ISLAND.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...PEAKING
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF THE THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST E OF NE FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE NW PORTION TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO
26N75W TO WESTERN CUBA. AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED TO
THE SE OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALONG A POSITION FROM 27N73W TO
25N75W TO 22N79W. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD FROM 27N73W TO
NE OF THE AREA AT 32N59W. MOIST LOW LEVEL NE FLOW UNDER THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NW PORTION IS BRINGING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BAHAMAS AND WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG CONVECTION AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND GREATER
ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE ABOVE.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF
SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR 22N63W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN INVERTED TROUGH AND
56W. E OF THIS FEATURE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND STABLE
UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...RATHER WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING PREVAILS. ELSEWHERE E OF THE STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT E OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO/AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED 130 NM MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W...MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL
WAVE EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N68W. A BAND OF NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SAN JUAN RADAR IS SHOWING A
LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING OVER 100 MILES SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO WITH OTHER CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. OTHER BANDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW FROM 15-23N
BETWEEN 68W-64W. THIS LOW HAS BEEN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE OPEN WATERS
BETWEEN THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG OR NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
INTERESTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N32W TO 27N32W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY
SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 26N68W TO THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 19N68W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N27W TO 9N33W TO 08N39W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N39W TO 08N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-
14N E OF 24W AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 28W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF NEAR
29N91W. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEREOMETER WINDS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT WITH 15 KT EVIDENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL GULF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS NE OF
HISPANIOLA...WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19N68W. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
THE NW BASIN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN
CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
CONVECTION FREE IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15
KT ARE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KT NEAR THE NORTH OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS EAST OF
67W BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY OF 15-25 KT IN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL AFFECT THE GREATER ANTILLES AND OFFSHORE
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOISTURE AND CONVECTION IS INCREASING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION APPROACHES THE ISLAND.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...PEAKING
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF THE THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST E OF NE FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE NW PORTION TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO
26N75W TO WESTERN CUBA. AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED TO
THE SE OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALONG A POSITION FROM 27N73W TO
25N75W TO 22N79W. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD FROM 27N73W TO
NE OF THE AREA AT 32N59W. MOIST LOW LEVEL NE FLOW UNDER THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NW PORTION IS BRINGING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BAHAMAS AND WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG CONVECTION AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND GREATER
ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE ABOVE.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF
SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR 22N63W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN INVERTED TROUGH AND
56W. E OF THIS FEATURE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND STABLE
UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...RATHER WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING PREVAILS. ELSEWHERE E OF THE STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT E OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO/AGUIRRE


000
ACPN50 PHFO 222356
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII... IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

MORRISON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 222356
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII... IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

MORRISON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 222356
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII... IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

MORRISON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 222356
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII... IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

MORRISON






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222343
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Karina located more than a thousand miles east of
the Big Island of Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located nearly a
thousand miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Marie located several hundred miles
south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222343
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Karina located more than a thousand miles east of
the Big Island of Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located nearly a
thousand miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Marie located several hundred miles
south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222343
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Karina located more than a thousand miles east of
the Big Island of Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located nearly a
thousand miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Marie located several hundred miles
south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222343
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Karina located more than a thousand miles east of
the Big Island of Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located nearly a
thousand miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Marie located several hundred miles
south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 222334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola reported
winds of tropical storm force over the open waters north of those
islands.  However, the aircraft data and surface observations
indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined surface
circulation. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday morning, if
necessary.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are gradaully
becoming better organized, but the proximity of the system to
Hispaniola could limit development tonight.  Conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development when the disturbance moves
near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.  Gusty winds and
heavy rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. These heavy rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the
mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the
southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance, since tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required with little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 222334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola reported
winds of tropical storm force over the open waters north of those
islands.  However, the aircraft data and surface observations
indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined surface
circulation. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday morning, if
necessary.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are gradaully
becoming better organized, but the proximity of the system to
Hispaniola could limit development tonight.  Conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development when the disturbance moves
near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.  Gusty winds and
heavy rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. These heavy rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the
mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the
southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance, since tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required with little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 222114
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
450 PM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL PARA DISCUTIR LOS RESULTADOS DE LA MISION DE
INVESTIGACION DEL AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO.

REVISADO...UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA
AEREA CONTINUA INVESTIGANDO EL AREA DE TIEMPO PERTURBADO MOVIENDOSE
SOBRE Y AL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO Y LA ESPANOLA. LOS REPORTES INDICAN
QUE EL SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS HASTA LA FUERZA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS AL NORTE DE ESTAS ISLAS. AUNQUE
DATA DEL AVION Y OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFIE INDICAN QUE AUN CARECE DE
UNA CIRCULACION BIEN DEFINIDA A NIVEL DE LA SUPERFICIE. DADO LA
AUSENCIA DE UNA CIRCULACION BIEN DEFINIDO A NIVEL DE LA SUPERFICIE
NO SE CONTEMPLA INICIAR ADVERTENCIAS DE CICLON TROPICAL EN ESTOS
MOMENTOS.

LA ORGANIZACION GENERAL DE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HA ESTADO
AUMENTADO DURANTE HOY, NO OBSTANTE LA PROXIMIDAD DEL SISTEMA A LA
ESPANOLA PODRIA LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO ESTA NOCHE. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN SEAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO CUANDO
EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA CERCA O SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE EL
SABADO. VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS Y FUERTES LLUVIAS SON ANTICIPADAS SOBRE
PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA
ESPANOLA Y EL SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE Y EL
SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN
MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO, YA QUE VIGILANCIA O AVISOS
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDO CON POCA ANTELACION.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN/BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 222114
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
450 PM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL PARA DISCUTIR LOS RESULTADOS DE LA MISION DE
INVESTIGACION DEL AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO.

REVISADO...UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA
AEREA CONTINUA INVESTIGANDO EL AREA DE TIEMPO PERTURBADO MOVIENDOSE
SOBRE Y AL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO Y LA ESPANOLA. LOS REPORTES INDICAN
QUE EL SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS HASTA LA FUERZA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS AL NORTE DE ESTAS ISLAS. AUNQUE
DATA DEL AVION Y OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFIE INDICAN QUE AUN CARECE DE
UNA CIRCULACION BIEN DEFINIDA A NIVEL DE LA SUPERFICIE. DADO LA
AUSENCIA DE UNA CIRCULACION BIEN DEFINIDO A NIVEL DE LA SUPERFICIE
NO SE CONTEMPLA INICIAR ADVERTENCIAS DE CICLON TROPICAL EN ESTOS
MOMENTOS.

LA ORGANIZACION GENERAL DE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HA ESTADO
AUMENTADO DURANTE HOY, NO OBSTANTE LA PROXIMIDAD DEL SISTEMA A LA
ESPANOLA PODRIA LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO ESTA NOCHE. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN SEAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO CUANDO
EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA CERCA O SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE EL
SABADO. VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS Y FUERTES LLUVIAS SON ANTICIPADAS SOBRE
PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA
ESPANOLA Y EL SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE Y EL
SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN
MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO, YA QUE VIGILANCIA O AVISOS
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDO CON POCA ANTELACION.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN/BRENNAN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 222049
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
450 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss results of aircraft
reconnaissance mission.

Updated...An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
continuing to investigate the area of disturbed weather moving
over and north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.  Aircraft reports
indicate that the system is producing winds of tropical storm force
over the open waters north of those islands, although the aircraft
data and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a
well-defined surface circulation.  Given the lack of a well-defined
surface circulation, tropical cyclone advisories are not being
initiated at this time.

The overall organization of the showers and thunderstorms has been
increasing today, but the proximity of the system to Hispaniola
could limit development tonight.  Conditions for development are
expected to be more conducive when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.  Gusty winds and heavy
rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday.  Interests in the southeastern
and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance,
since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with
little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 222049
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
450 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss results of aircraft
reconnaissance mission.

Updated...An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
continuing to investigate the area of disturbed weather moving
over and north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.  Aircraft reports
indicate that the system is producing winds of tropical storm force
over the open waters north of those islands, although the aircraft
data and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a
well-defined surface circulation.  Given the lack of a well-defined
surface circulation, tropical cyclone advisories are not being
initiated at this time.

The overall organization of the showers and thunderstorms has been
increasing today, but the proximity of the system to Hispaniola
could limit development tonight.  Conditions for development are
expected to be more conducive when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.  Gusty winds and heavy
rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday.  Interests in the southeastern
and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance,
since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with
little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 222049
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
450 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss results of aircraft
reconnaissance mission.

Updated...An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
continuing to investigate the area of disturbed weather moving
over and north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.  Aircraft reports
indicate that the system is producing winds of tropical storm force
over the open waters north of those islands, although the aircraft
data and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a
well-defined surface circulation.  Given the lack of a well-defined
surface circulation, tropical cyclone advisories are not being
initiated at this time.

The overall organization of the showers and thunderstorms has been
increasing today, but the proximity of the system to Hispaniola
could limit development tonight.  Conditions for development are
expected to be more conducive when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.  Gusty winds and heavy
rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday.  Interests in the southeastern
and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance,
since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with
little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 222049
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
450 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss results of aircraft
reconnaissance mission.

Updated...An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
continuing to investigate the area of disturbed weather moving
over and north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.  Aircraft reports
indicate that the system is producing winds of tropical storm force
over the open waters north of those islands, although the aircraft
data and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a
well-defined surface circulation.  Given the lack of a well-defined
surface circulation, tropical cyclone advisories are not being
initiated at this time.

The overall organization of the showers and thunderstorms has been
increasing today, but the proximity of the system to Hispaniola
could limit development tonight.  Conditions for development are
expected to be more conducive when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.  Gusty winds and heavy
rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday.  Interests in the southeastern
and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance,
since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with
little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Brennan



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222038
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N
135.2W AT 22/2100 UTC...ABOUT 1164 E OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING NE
OR 050 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100
UTC...ABOUT 339 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING WNW OR 285
DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN
THE SE AND 300 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...
AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 124.7W AT 22/2100
UTC...ABOUT 821 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 120 AND 240 NM IN THE N QUADRANT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 10N95W. NO
ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 90W...WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
09N108W TO 06N119W...AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 14N112W
TO 06N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR
40N145W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST NEAR ORANGE COUNTY. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NW
AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM
LOWELL.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222038
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N
135.2W AT 22/2100 UTC...ABOUT 1164 E OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING NE
OR 050 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100
UTC...ABOUT 339 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING WNW OR 285
DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN
THE SE AND 300 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...
AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 124.7W AT 22/2100
UTC...ABOUT 821 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 120 AND 240 NM IN THE N QUADRANT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 10N95W. NO
ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 90W...WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
09N108W TO 06N119W...AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 14N112W
TO 06N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR
40N145W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST NEAR ORANGE COUNTY. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NW
AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM
LOWELL.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222038
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N
135.2W AT 22/2100 UTC...ABOUT 1164 E OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING NE
OR 050 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100
UTC...ABOUT 339 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING WNW OR 285
DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN
THE SE AND 300 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...
AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 124.7W AT 22/2100
UTC...ABOUT 821 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 120 AND 240 NM IN THE N QUADRANT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 10N95W. NO
ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 90W...WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
09N108W TO 06N119W...AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 14N112W
TO 06N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR
40N145W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST NEAR ORANGE COUNTY. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NW
AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM
LOWELL.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222038
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N
135.2W AT 22/2100 UTC...ABOUT 1164 E OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING NE
OR 050 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100
UTC...ABOUT 339 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING WNW OR 285
DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN
THE SE AND 300 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...
AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 124.7W AT 22/2100
UTC...ABOUT 821 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 120 AND 240 NM IN THE N QUADRANT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 10N95W. NO
ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 90W...WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
09N108W TO 06N119W...AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 14N112W
TO 06N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR
40N145W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST NEAR ORANGE COUNTY. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NW
AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM
LOWELL.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 222033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 124.7W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 222033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 124.7W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 222033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 124.7W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 222033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 124.7W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 222033
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 124.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 124.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 125.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 127.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.2N 128.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 124.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 222032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 103.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 222032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 103.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 222031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 103.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 222031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 135.2W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE. KARINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 222031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 135.2W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE. KARINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 222031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 103.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 222031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 135.2W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE. KARINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 222031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 135.2W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE. KARINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 222031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 103.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 222031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 135.2W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE. KARINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 222031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 135.2W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE. KARINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 222031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 103.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 222031
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 135.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 135.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 222031
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 135.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 135.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 222031
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 135.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 135.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 222031
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 135.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 135.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
AXNT20 KNHC 221819 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CORRECTED FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA
FOR THE SPECIAL FEATURE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N65W...
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N65W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS... AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW CENTER HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WHEN THE LOW CENTER MOVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND ACROSS
SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. PEOPLE WHO ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SITUATION.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED WITH SHORT NOTICE. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST.
THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...
0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
19N65W. WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET WITHIN
60 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO
21N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 27N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
28W AND 33W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 10N30W AND 7N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N39W
TO 7N50W AND 8N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
AFRICA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 9N23W 8N35W 8N40W
8N46W 7N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W
WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N102W IN MEXICO. PART OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 24N102W CENTER COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE U.S.A.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N71W...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N89W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...FROM THE CURRENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST. THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO... 0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO
BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...EARLIER SCATTERED STRONG THAT WAS TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
SAME AREA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
FIRST EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N51W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. A
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 26N63W CENTER TO 21N61W...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N21W...TO A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N33W...TO 30N50W...28N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE WIND AND SEA HEIGHTS FORECAST THAT IS RELATED TO THE 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221808
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HA AUMENTADO DURANTE LA PASADA
HORAS ASOCIADO CON UNA PEQUENA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO JUSTO
AL NORTE DEL PASAJE DE LA MONA ENTRE PUERTO RICO Y LA REPUBLICA
DOMINICANA. LA DATA DE VIENTO DEL SATELITE Y REPORTES PRELIMINARES
OBTENIDOS POR EL AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA
AERA INDICAN QUE LA CIRCULACION ASOCIADA CON LA BAJA PRESION
PERMANECE POBREMENTE DEFINIDA. ALGUN DESARROLLO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE
EN EL SISTEMA HOY, SIN EMBARGO...CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN
SEAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO DE UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL O
TORMENTA TROPICAL CUANDO EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA LAS
BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE EL SABADO.INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE
UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERAN
A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HOY...Y
SOBRE LA ESPANOLA Y SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE Y
SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN
MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO, YA QUE VIGILANCIA O AVISOS
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDO CON POCA ANTELACION.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221808
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HA AUMENTADO DURANTE LA PASADA
HORAS ASOCIADO CON UNA PEQUENA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO JUSTO
AL NORTE DEL PASAJE DE LA MONA ENTRE PUERTO RICO Y LA REPUBLICA
DOMINICANA. LA DATA DE VIENTO DEL SATELITE Y REPORTES PRELIMINARES
OBTENIDOS POR EL AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA
AERA INDICAN QUE LA CIRCULACION ASOCIADA CON LA BAJA PRESION
PERMANECE POBREMENTE DEFINIDA. ALGUN DESARROLLO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE
EN EL SISTEMA HOY, SIN EMBARGO...CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN
SEAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO DE UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL O
TORMENTA TROPICAL CUANDO EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA LAS
BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE EL SABADO.INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE
UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERAN
A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HOY...Y
SOBRE LA ESPANOLA Y SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE Y
SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN
MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO, YA QUE VIGILANCIA O AVISOS
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDO CON POCA ANTELACION.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
AXNT20 KNHC 221805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N65W...
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N65W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS... AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WHEN THE LOW CENTER MOVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY
FORM DURING THE WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY. PEOPLE WHO ARE IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SITUATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WEATHER SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY. THE CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
HIGH.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST.
THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...
0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
19N65W. WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET WITHIN
60 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO
21N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 27N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
28W AND 33W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 10N30W AND 7N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N39W
TO 7N50W AND 8N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
AFRICA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 9N23W 8N35W 8N40W
8N46W 7N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W
WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N102W IN MEXICO. PART OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 24N102W CENTER COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE U.S.A.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N71W...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N89W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...FROM THE CURRENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST. THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO... 0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO
BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...EARLIER SCATTERED STRONG THAT WAS TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
SAME AREA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
FIRST EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N51W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. A
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 26N63W CENTER TO 21N61W...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N21W...TO A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N33W...TO 30N50W...28N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE WIND AND SEA HEIGHTS FORECAST THAT IS RELATED TO THE 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N65W...
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N65W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS... AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WHEN THE LOW CENTER MOVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY
FORM DURING THE WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY. PEOPLE WHO ARE IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SITUATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WEATHER SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY. THE CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
HIGH.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST.
THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...
0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
19N65W. WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET WITHIN
60 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO
21N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 27N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
28W AND 33W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 10N30W AND 7N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N39W
TO 7N50W AND 8N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
AFRICA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 9N23W 8N35W 8N40W
8N46W 7N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W
WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N102W IN MEXICO. PART OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 24N102W CENTER COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE U.S.A.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N71W...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N89W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...FROM THE CURRENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST. THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO... 0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO
BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...EARLIER SCATTERED STRONG THAT WAS TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
SAME AREA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
FIRST EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N51W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. A
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 26N63W CENTER TO 21N61W...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N21W...TO A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N33W...TO 30N50W...28N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE WIND AND SEA HEIGHTS FORECAST THAT IS RELATED TO THE 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221759
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few
hours in association with a small area of low pressure located just
north of the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. Satellite wind data and preliminary reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
circulation associated with the low is poorly defined. Some
additional development of this system is possible today, but
environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for the
development of a tropical depression or tropical storm when the
disturbance moves near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.
Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, gusty
winds and heavy rainfall are expected across Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands today, and over portions of Hispaniola and the
southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in
the southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this disturbance, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required with short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221746
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located about
910 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Marie located about 320 miles
south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221746
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located about
910 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Marie located about 320 miles
south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221746
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located about
910 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Marie located about 320 miles
south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221746
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Lowell located about
910 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Marie located about 320 miles
south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ACPN50 PHFO 221745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII... IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


$$

MORRISON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 221745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII... IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


$$

MORRISON





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500
UTC...ABOUT 280 NM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 124.1W AT 22/1500
UTC...ABOUT 785 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT AND
SW QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 135.6W AT 22/1500
UTC...ABOUT 1150 E OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT 3
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM
OF CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 10N93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM S
OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 85W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS
NEAR 40N145W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF
TROPICAL STORMS KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
LOWELL MOVES NORTHWEST AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW
PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500
UTC...ABOUT 280 NM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 124.1W AT 22/1500
UTC...ABOUT 785 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT AND
SW QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 135.6W AT 22/1500
UTC...ABOUT 1150 E OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT 3
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM
OF CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 10N93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM S
OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 85W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS
NEAR 40N145W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF
TROPICAL STORMS KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
LOWELL MOVES NORTHWEST AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW
PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 221436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 135.6W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1760 MI...2835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 221436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 135.6W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1760 MI...2835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 221436
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 135.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 105SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 135.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 135.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 135.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.6N 134.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N 130.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 135.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 221436
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 135.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 105SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 135.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 135.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 135.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.6N 134.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N 130.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 135.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 124.1W
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 124.1W
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 124.1W
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 124.1W
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 221434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 123.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.3N 126.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.1N 127.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.9N 129.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.2N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.1N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 124.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 221434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 123.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.3N 126.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.1N 127.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.9N 129.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.2N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.1N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 124.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 221431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 102.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 221431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 102.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 221431
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE STRENGTHENING STEADILY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 102.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 221431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 102.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 221431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 102.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 221431
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE STRENGTHENING STEADILY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 102.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 221431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 102.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 221431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 102.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 221431
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE STRENGTHENING STEADILY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 102.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 221431
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE STRENGTHENING STEADILY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 102.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221158
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADO CON UNA PEQUENA AREA DE
BAJA PRESION MOVIENDOSE SOBRE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES PERMANECE
DESORGANIZADA. INTERACCION DE LA BAJA PRESION CON LA ESPANOLA
PROBABLEMENTE LIMITE DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO HASTA ESTA NOCHE. SIN
EMBARGO...CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN SEAN CONDUCENTES PARA
DESARROLLO CUANDO EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA CERCA O SOBRE EL SURESTE DE
LAS BAHAMAS EL SABADO...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL O TORMENTA TROPICAL
ES POSIBLE QUE SE FORME DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA O TEMPRANO LA
SEMANA PROXIMA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON
TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERAN A TRAVES
DE PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES HOY...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA Y SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA
NOCHE Y SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA ESTA
TARDE, DE SER NECESARIO.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ABNT20 KNHC 221148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located north of the Virgin Islands remains disorganized.
Interaction of this system with Hispaniola could limit development
through tonight. However, environmental conditions are expected to
be more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form over the weekend or by early
next week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today, and over Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in those
islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located north of the Virgin Islands remains disorganized.
Interaction of this system with Hispaniola could limit development
through tonight. However, environmental conditions are expected to
be more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form over the weekend or by early
next week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today, and over Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in those
islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ACPN50 PHFO 221145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY
DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.


$$

LAU














000
ACPN50 PHFO 221145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY
DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.


$$

LAU













000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221143
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
900 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Marie, located a few
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Marie are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221143
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
900 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Marie, located a few
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Marie are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221143
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
900 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Marie, located a few
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Marie are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221143
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
900 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Marie, located a few
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Marie are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED 200 NM MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N62W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN W FROM THE LOW FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A GALE
WARNING IS ACTIVE FOR THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N29W TO 11N28W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN
AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 26N63W TO THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 18N62W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N28W TO 11N28W TO 08N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N40W TO 09N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-14N E OF 22W AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 41W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF NEAR
29N90W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT WINDS UP TO
15 KT W OF 90W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF CUBA SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 25N E OF 83W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS NW OF
BARBUDA...WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18N62W. MID-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE SEE
ABOVE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN CUBA
AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS LOW ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NW BASIN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR
WEATHER IS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED
BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND/OR STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS
CENTER CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT ALONG THE WATERS CLOSE TO COLOMBIA...WHERE WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE
SPECIAL FEATURES WILL BE AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE ADJACENT WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION APPROACH
THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...PEAKING BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 25N WHICH
IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CLOSE TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED 200 NM MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N62W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN W FROM THE LOW FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A GALE
WARNING IS ACTIVE FOR THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N29W TO 11N28W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN
AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 26N63W TO THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 18N62W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N28W TO 11N28W TO 08N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N40W TO 09N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-14N E OF 22W AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 41W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF NEAR
29N90W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT WINDS UP TO
15 KT W OF 90W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF CUBA SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 25N E OF 83W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS NW OF
BARBUDA...WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18N62W. MID-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE SEE
ABOVE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN CUBA
AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS LOW ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NW BASIN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR
WEATHER IS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED
BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND/OR STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS
CENTER CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT ALONG THE WATERS CLOSE TO COLOMBIA...WHERE WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE
SPECIAL FEATURES WILL BE AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE ADJACENT WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION APPROACH
THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...PEAKING BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 25N WHICH
IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CLOSE TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220938
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 135.8W AT 22/0900
UTC MOVING E OR 085 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE...AND FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 135W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 123.4W AT 22/0900
UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 119W AND
127W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 101.0W AT 22/0900
UTC MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N89W THEN
RESUMES FROM 08N109W TO 12N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 87W AND
92W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS
NEAR 40N146W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 30N127W. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF
110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF TROPICAL STORMS KARINA AND
LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOWELL MOVES NORTHWEST AGAINST THE
RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

AN AREA OF S-SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR W-SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220938
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 135.8W AT 22/0900
UTC MOVING E OR 085 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE...AND FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 135W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 123.4W AT 22/0900
UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 119W AND
127W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 101.0W AT 22/0900
UTC MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N89W THEN
RESUMES FROM 08N109W TO 12N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 87W AND
92W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS
NEAR 40N146W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 30N127W. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF
110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF TROPICAL STORMS KARINA AND
LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOWELL MOVES NORTHWEST AGAINST THE
RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

AN AREA OF S-SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR W-SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 220858
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 135.8W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.8 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 220858
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 135.8W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.8 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 220857
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 135.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  85 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 135.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 135.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 22.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 135.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 220857
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 135.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  85 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 135.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 135.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 22.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 135.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220833
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 101.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 101.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 101.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 123.4W
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220833
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 101.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 101.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 101.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 123.4W
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 101.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST.  MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...AND MARIE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 101.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST.  MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...AND MARIE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 123.4W
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 101.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST.  MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...AND MARIE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 101.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST.  MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...AND MARIE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 123.4W
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 101.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST.  MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...AND MARIE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 101.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST.  MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...AND MARIE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 123.4W
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220833
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 101.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 101.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 101.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220833
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 123.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 123.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.5N 125.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.6N 127.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.4N 128.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.7N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.3N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220833
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 123.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 123.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.5N 125.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.6N 127.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.4N 128.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.7N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.3N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 220557
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADO CON UNA PEQUENA AREA DE BAJA PRESION
MOVIENDOSE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO PERMANECE LIMITADA Y
DESORGANIZADA. INTERACCION DE LA BAJA PRESION CON PUERTO RICO Y LA
ESPANOLA PROBABLEMENTE LIMITE DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO HASTA ESTA
NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN SEAN
CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO CUANDO EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA CERCA O
SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS EL SABADO...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL
ES POSIBLE QUE SE FORME DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA O TEMPRANO LA
SEMANA PROXIMA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON
TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERAN A TRAVES
DE PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES HOY...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA Y SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA
NOCHE Y SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA ESTA TARDE.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 220557
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADO CON UNA PEQUENA AREA DE BAJA PRESION
MOVIENDOSE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO PERMANECE LIMITADA Y
DESORGANIZADA. INTERACCION DE LA BAJA PRESION CON PUERTO RICO Y LA
ESPANOLA PROBABLEMENTE LIMITE DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO HASTA ESTA
NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN SEAN
CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO CUANDO EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA CERCA O
SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS EL SABADO...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL
ES POSIBLE QUE SE FORME DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA O TEMPRANO LA
SEMANA PROXIMA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON
TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERAN A TRAVES
DE PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES HOY...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA Y SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA
NOCHE Y SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA ESTA TARDE.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 220557
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADO CON UNA PEQUENA AREA DE BAJA PRESION
MOVIENDOSE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO PERMANECE LIMITADA Y
DESORGANIZADA. INTERACCION DE LA BAJA PRESION CON PUERTO RICO Y LA
ESPANOLA PROBABLEMENTE LIMITE DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO HASTA ESTA
NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN SEAN
CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO CUANDO EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA CERCA O
SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS EL SABADO...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL
ES POSIBLE QUE SE FORME DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA O TEMPRANO LA
SEMANA PROXIMA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON
TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERAN A TRAVES
DE PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES HOY...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA Y SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA
NOCHE Y SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA ESTA TARDE.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 220557
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADO CON UNA PEQUENA AREA DE BAJA PRESION
MOVIENDOSE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO PERMANECE LIMITADA Y
DESORGANIZADA. INTERACCION DE LA BAJA PRESION CON PUERTO RICO Y LA
ESPANOLA PROBABLEMENTE LIMITE DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO HASTA ESTA
NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN SEAN
CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO CUANDO EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA CERCA O
SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS EL SABADO...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL
ES POSIBLE QUE SE FORME DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA O TEMPRANO LA
SEMANA PROXIMA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON
TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERAN A TRAVES
DE PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES HOY...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA Y SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA
NOCHE Y SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA ESTA TARDE.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 220555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED 230 NM MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE NEAR
18N59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 23N60W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MAINLY NW FROM THE LOW FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A GALE
WARNING IS ACTIVE FOR THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR
CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N28W TO 12N28W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS
ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N60W TO THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 18N59W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N28W TO 08N35W TO 08N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N40W TO 09N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-
10N E OF 22W AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE NE GULF NEAR
29N87W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-15 KT WINDS UP TO
20 KT W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WEST CUBA SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE S OF 25N E OF 89W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE SEE ABOVE. AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN CUBA AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS LOW ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
THE NW BASIN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN
CUBA AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND/OR STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS CENTER CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 10-
15 KT ARE ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ALONG THE WATERS CLOSE TO
COLOMBIA...WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL BE AFFECTING THE
GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY IS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION APPROACH THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...PEAKING EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 23N WHICH
IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CLOSE TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED 230 NM MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE NEAR
18N59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 23N60W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MAINLY NW FROM THE LOW FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A GALE
WARNING IS ACTIVE FOR THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR
CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N28W TO 12N28W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS
ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N60W TO THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 18N59W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N28W TO 08N35W TO 08N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N40W TO 09N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-
10N E OF 22W AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE NE GULF NEAR
29N87W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-15 KT WINDS UP TO
20 KT W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WEST CUBA SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE S OF 25N E OF 89W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE SEE ABOVE. AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN CUBA AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS LOW ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
THE NW BASIN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN
CUBA AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND/OR STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS CENTER CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 10-
15 KT ARE ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ALONG THE WATERS CLOSE TO
COLOMBIA...WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL BE AFFECTING THE
GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY IS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION APPROACH THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...PEAKING EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 23N WHICH
IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CLOSE TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 220545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU AUG 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
MOVING WEST SLOWLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

LAU









000
ACPN50 PHFO 220545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU AUG 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
MOVING WEST SLOWLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

LAU










000
ABNT20 KNHC 220544
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
moving over the Leeward Islands remains limited and disorganized.
Interaction of the low with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will
likely inhibit significant development through tonight.  However,
environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for
development when the disturbance moves near or over the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend or by early next week.  Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected
across portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands today, and over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas
tonight and Saturday. Interests in those islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220544
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
moving over the Leeward Islands remains limited and disorganized.
Interaction of the low with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will
likely inhibit significant development through tonight.  However,
environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for
development when the disturbance moves near or over the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend or by early next week.  Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected
across portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands today, and over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas
tonight and Saturday. Interests in those islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220536
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
850 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located a few
hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220536
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
850 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located a few
hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220536
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
850 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located a few
hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220536
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
850 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located a few
hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220316
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  98.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220316
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  98.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220253
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 99.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION AND ITS STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...
AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220253
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 99.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION AND ITS STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...
AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220252
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300 UTC
MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM IN THE NE AND 120 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLES. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A DRIFT TOWARD THE E IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE ENE THEN NE AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR
20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 180 AND 360 NM IN THE
NE SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW WHILE ACCELERATING. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 99.0W AT
22/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM IN THE NW AND 300 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLES. PREVIOUSLY AN
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WAS OCCURRING WELL TO THE NE OF THE
NEWLY FORMED T.D. NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THOSE WINDS
HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT AND THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE T.D. IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM EARLY FRI AND THEN TO A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS
WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 10N93W THEN
RESUMES FROM 10N100W TO 07N107W TO 09N112W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS
PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 03N BETWEEN 81W
AND 83W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W
AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS
NEAR 40N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 30N117W. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF
110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FRI THROUGH
SAT AS LOWELL MOVES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE FAR NW
PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

AN AREA OF S-SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220252
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY
NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  98.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220252
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY
NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  98.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220252
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300 UTC
MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM IN THE NE AND 120 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLES. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A DRIFT TOWARD THE E IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE ENE THEN NE AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR
20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 180 AND 360 NM IN THE
NE SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW WHILE ACCELERATING. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 99.0W AT
22/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM IN THE NW AND 300 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLES. PREVIOUSLY AN
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WAS OCCURRING WELL TO THE NE OF THE
NEWLY FORMED T.D. NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THOSE WINDS
HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT AND THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE T.D. IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM EARLY FRI AND THEN TO A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS
WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 10N93W THEN
RESUMES FROM 10N100W TO 07N107W TO 09N112W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS
PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 03N BETWEEN 81W
AND 83W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W
AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS
NEAR 40N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 30N117W. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF
110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FRI THROUGH
SAT AS LOWELL MOVES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE FAR NW
PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

AN AREA OF S-SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220247
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 99.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION AND ITS STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...
AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220246
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  98.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220246
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  98.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220243
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 122.8W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.  A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  75 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 123.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.9N 126.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 122.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  75 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 123.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.9N 126.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 122.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 220236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA DRIFTING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 136.5W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 220236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA DRIFTING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 136.5W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 220236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA DRIFTING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 136.5W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 220236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA DRIFTING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 136.5W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 220235
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.1N 135.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 135.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 136.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
AXNT20 KNHC 220008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED 230 NM MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE
NEAR 16N58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N56W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NW
FROM THE LOW FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 62W-64W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56-60W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-
23N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N26W TO 12N26W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS
ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N26W 8N33W TO 7N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
7N40W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-14N E
OF 22W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ON THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. A
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-15
KT WITH SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF
89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST AND OVER THE YUCATAN. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. MIDDLE LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. SEE ABOVE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON JAMAICA AS WELL AS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-
83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NW BASIN ENHANCES HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG SOUTHERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER HAITI.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND/OR STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ON THE
CENTER CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT ALONG COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT.
RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES
WILL BE AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL HAITI.
RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...PEAKING
EARLY ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM ON SPECIAL FEATURES MOVES
ACROSS/NEAR THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MAINLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
24N WHICH IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED 230 NM MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE
NEAR 16N58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N56W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NW
FROM THE LOW FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 62W-64W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56-60W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-
23N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N26W TO 12N26W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS
ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N26W 8N33W TO 7N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
7N40W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-14N E
OF 22W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ON THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. A
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-15
KT WITH SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF
89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST AND OVER THE YUCATAN. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. MIDDLE LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. SEE ABOVE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON JAMAICA AS WELL AS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-
83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NW BASIN ENHANCES HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG SOUTHERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER HAITI.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND/OR STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ON THE
CENTER CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT ALONG COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT.
RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES
WILL BE AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL HAITI.
RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...PEAKING
EARLY ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM ON SPECIAL FEATURES MOVES
ACROSS/NEAR THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MAINLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
24N WHICH IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED 230 NM MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE
NEAR 16N58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N56W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NW
FROM THE LOW FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 62W-64W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56-60W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-
23N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N26W TO 12N26W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS
ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N26W 8N33W TO 7N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
7N40W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-14N E
OF 22W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ON THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. A
SCATTEREOMETER PASS SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-15
KT WITH SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF
89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST AND OVER THE YUCATAN. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRPCL WAVE IS EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. MIDDLE LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. SEE ABOVE. AN ELONGANTED UPPER LEVEL LOW
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON JAMAICA AS WELL AS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-
83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NW BASIN ENHANCES HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG SOUTHERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER HAITI.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND/OR STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ON THE
CENTER CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT ALONG COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT.
RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES
WILL BE AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL HAITI.
RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...PEAKING
EARLY ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM ON SPECIAL FEATURES MOVES
ACROSS/NEAR THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MAINLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
24N WHICH IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED 230 NM MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE
NEAR 16N58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N56W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NW
FROM THE LOW FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 62W-64W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56-60W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-
23N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N26W TO 12N26W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS
ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N26W 8N33W TO 7N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
7N40W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-14N E
OF 22W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ON THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. A
SCATTEREOMETER PASS SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-15
KT WITH SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF
89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST AND OVER THE YUCATAN. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRPCL WAVE IS EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. MIDDLE LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. SEE ABOVE. AN ELONGANTED UPPER LEVEL LOW
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON JAMAICA AS WELL AS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-
83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NW BASIN ENHANCES HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG SOUTHERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER HAITI.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND/OR STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ON THE
CENTER CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT ALONG COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT.
RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES
WILL BE AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL HAITI.
RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...PEAKING
EARLY ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM ON SPECIAL FEATURES MOVES
ACROSS/NEAR THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MAINLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
24N WHICH IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212346
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADO CON UNA PEQUENA AREA DE BAJA PRESION
ACERCANDOSE A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO HA CAMBIADO POCO EN
ORGANIZACION DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE
ESPERAN SEAN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGO DE DESARROLLO DURANTE EL PROXIMO
DIA MAS O MENOS Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL O TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA
AUN FORMARSE MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DE
20 A 25 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. EL TERRENO MONTANOSO
DE ESPANOLA PUDIERA LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO DURANTE LA PRIMERA PARTE
DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE TORNEN MAS
FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO EL DOMINGO CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE
PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA CERCA O SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE
VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERAN A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS Y EN LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR EL SISTEMA NUEVAMENTE
MANANA EN LA TARDE.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212346
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADO CON UNA PEQUENA AREA DE BAJA PRESION
ACERCANDOSE A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO HA CAMBIADO POCO EN
ORGANIZACION DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE
ESPERAN SEAN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGO DE DESARROLLO DURANTE EL PROXIMO
DIA MAS O MENOS Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL O TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA
AUN FORMARSE MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DE
20 A 25 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. EL TERRENO MONTANOSO
DE ESPANOLA PUDIERA LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO DURANTE LA PRIMERA PARTE
DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE TORNEN MAS
FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO EL DOMINGO CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE
PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA CERCA O SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE
VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SE ESPERAN A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS Y EN LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR EL SISTEMA NUEVAMENTE
MANANA EN LA TARDE.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 212345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU AUG 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

BRAVENDER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 212345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU AUG 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

BRAVENDER






000
ABNT20 KNHC 212332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands has changed little in organization
during the past few hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the
system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Lesser
Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit
development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the
system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday
and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 212332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands has changed little in organization
during the past few hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the
system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Lesser
Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit
development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the
system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday
and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 212332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands has changed little in organization
during the past few hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the
system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Lesser
Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit
development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the
system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday
and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 212332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands has changed little in organization
during the past few hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the
system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Lesser
Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit
development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the
system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday
and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212301
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii, and on Hurricane Lowell, located a little
more than 800 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, have continued to become better organized over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and any additional increase in organization would
result in the formation of a tropical depression later tonight or on
Friday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. In
addition, satellite-derived wind data indicate that gale-force winds
are occurring well to the northeast of the low near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, which are not part of the circulation at this time.
Information on this gale area is contained in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch can be found under AWIPS header MIAHSFEP1 and under WMO
header FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212301
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii, and on Hurricane Lowell, located a little
more than 800 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, have continued to become better organized over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and any additional increase in organization would
result in the formation of a tropical depression later tonight or on
Friday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. In
addition, satellite-derived wind data indicate that gale-force winds
are occurring well to the northeast of the low near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, which are not part of the circulation at this time.
Information on this gale area is contained in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch can be found under AWIPS header MIAHSFEP1 and under WMO
header FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W OR ABOUT 708 NM W OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR
315 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 180 NM AND 300 NM IN
THE NE SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW WHILE ACCELERATING. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 136.7W OR ABOUT 1095
NM ESE OF HILO HAWAII OR ABOUT 1595 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING SSE OR 160 DEG AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRI AND A TURN TOWARD THE E AND NE
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE WARNING....RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM
NE OF THE LOW WHERE SEAS AREA LIKELY 8-12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE
WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO 8-10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 300 NM
NW OF A LINE FROM 14N91W TO 10N100W. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WNW AT 10-15 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR
11N97W TO 08N107W TO 10N113W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N
TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 110W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 124W
AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR
40N144W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 32N119W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOWELL...AND IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL MOVES
UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM
LOWELL.

AN AREA OF S-SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W OR ABOUT 708 NM W OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR
315 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 180 NM AND 300 NM IN
THE NE SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW WHILE ACCELERATING. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 136.7W OR ABOUT 1095
NM ESE OF HILO HAWAII OR ABOUT 1595 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING SSE OR 160 DEG AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRI AND A TURN TOWARD THE E AND NE
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE WARNING....RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM
NE OF THE LOW WHERE SEAS AREA LIKELY 8-12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE
WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO 8-10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 300 NM
NW OF A LINE FROM 14N91W TO 10N100W. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WNW AT 10-15 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR
11N97W TO 08N107W TO 10N113W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N
TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 110W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 124W
AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR
40N144W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 32N119W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOWELL...AND IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL MOVES
UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM
LOWELL.

AN AREA OF S-SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 212038
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 122.3W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212038
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
EYE DIAMETER  60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212038
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
EYE DIAMETER  60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 212038
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 122.3W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212038
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
EYE DIAMETER  60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212038
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
EYE DIAMETER  60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 212038
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 122.3W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212038
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
EYE DIAMETER  60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212038
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
EYE DIAMETER  60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 212038
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 122.3W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 212035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 136.7W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1835 MI...2955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 212035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 136.7W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1835 MI...2955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 212035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 136.7W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1835 MI...2955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 212035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 136.7W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1835 MI...2955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 212035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 136.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 136.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.7N 133.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 136.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212003
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
400 PM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

DATOS RECOPILADOS POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA
FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LA CIRCULACION ASOCIADA CON EL AREA PEQUENA
DE BAJA PRESION ACERCANDOSE A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO ESTA POBREMENTE
DEFINIDA. ADEMAS...LA ACTIVIDAD ASOCIADA DE AGUACEROS HA DISMINUIDO
DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...EL AVION ENCONTRO UN AREA
PEQUENA DE VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL LADO
NORESTE DE LA BAJA PRESION. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO DURANTE EL
PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL O TORMENTA TROPICAL
PUDIERA AUN FORMARSE MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE A ALREDEDOR DE 20 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. EL
TERRENO MONTANOSO DE ESPANOLA PUDIERA LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO DURANTE
LA PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE LAS
CONDICIONES SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO EL DOMINGO
CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA CERCA O SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE
VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA INVESTIGANDO EL SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN/BLAKE




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212003
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
400 PM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

DATOS RECOPILADOS POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA
FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LA CIRCULACION ASOCIADA CON EL AREA PEQUENA
DE BAJA PRESION ACERCANDOSE A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO ESTA POBREMENTE
DEFINIDA. ADEMAS...LA ACTIVIDAD ASOCIADA DE AGUACEROS HA DISMINUIDO
DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...EL AVION ENCONTRO UN AREA
PEQUENA DE VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL LADO
NORESTE DE LA BAJA PRESION. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO DURANTE EL
PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL O TORMENTA TROPICAL
PUDIERA AUN FORMARSE MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE A ALREDEDOR DE 20 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. EL
TERRENO MONTANOSO DE ESPANOLA PUDIERA LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO DURANTE
LA PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE LAS
CONDICIONES SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO EL DOMINGO
CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA CERCA O SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE
VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA INVESTIGANDO EL SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN/BLAKE





000
ABNT20 KNHC 211957
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

Updated for reconnaissance information

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands is poorly defined.  In addition, the
associated shower activity has decreased during the past few hours.
The aircraft did, however, find a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds on the northeast side of the low.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some development during the next
day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still
form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph
across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola
could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the
Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 211957
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

Updated for reconnaissance information

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands is poorly defined.  In addition, the
associated shower activity has decreased during the past few hours.
The aircraft did, however, find a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds on the northeast side of the low.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some development during the next
day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still
form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph
across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola
could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the
Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Blake


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211757
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

DATOS DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
COMO A 275 MILLAS AL ESTE DE GUADALUPE SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR
DEFINIDA HOY. SIN EMBARGO...LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
ASOCIADA PERMANECE LIMITADA Y DESORGANIZADA. SE ESPERA QUE LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO
DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PUDIERA
FORMARSE MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A
ALREDEDOR DE 20 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. EL TERRENO
MONTANOSO DE ESPANOLA PUDIERA LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO DURANTE LA
PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO EL DOMINGO CUANDO EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVA CERCA O SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL
DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO Y LLUVIAS
FUERTES SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA EL VIERNES...Y
SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN ESAS
ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA
HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA INVESTIGANDO EL
SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211757
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

DATOS DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
COMO A 275 MILLAS AL ESTE DE GUADALUPE SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR
DEFINIDA HOY. SIN EMBARGO...LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
ASOCIADA PERMANECE LIMITADA Y DESORGANIZADA. SE ESPERA QUE LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO
DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PUDIERA
FORMARSE MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A
ALREDEDOR DE 20 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. EL TERRENO
MONTANOSO DE ESPANOLA PUDIERA LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO DURANTE LA
PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO EL DOMINGO CUANDO EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVA CERCA O SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL
DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO Y LLUVIAS
FUERTES SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA EL VIERNES...Y
SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS INTERESADOS EN ESAS
ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA
HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA INVESTIGANDO EL
SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 211750
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that an area of low pressure located about
275 miles east of Guadeloupe has become a little better defined
today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or
so, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the Lesser Antilles. The
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit development during the
first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is
forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible
across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and
Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 211750
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that an area of low pressure located about
275 miles east of Guadeloupe has become a little better defined
today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or
so, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the Lesser Antilles. The
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit development during the
first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is
forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible
across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and
Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 211750
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that an area of low pressure located about
275 miles east of Guadeloupe has become a little better defined
today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or
so, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the Lesser Antilles. The
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit development during the
first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is
forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible
across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and
Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 211750
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that an area of low pressure located about
275 miles east of Guadeloupe has become a little better defined
today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or
so, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the Lesser Antilles. The
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit development during the
first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is
forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible
across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and
Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ACPN50 PHFO 211747
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU AUG 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. BRIEF...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING NO SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 211747
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU AUG 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. BRIEF...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING NO SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 211747
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU AUG 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. BRIEF...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING NO SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 211747
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU AUG 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. BRIEF...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING NO SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
AXNT20 KNHC 211741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED 310 NM SE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 15N56W MOVING NW AT 20-25
KT. A TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 57W-63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 54W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N23W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT 5-
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N56W TO 15N56W MOVING NW AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
10N30W TO 8N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N40W TO 8N47W TO 11N50W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 11W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 38W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N86W. 5-10 KT E TO SE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND SE GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT
23N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
96W-99W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE S GULF TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... 10-
20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
75W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 83W-87W. FURTHER S...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 77W-85W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR
20N81W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS MAINLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO...AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILING TODAY ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
AND TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24-27N BETWEEN 77W-
80W. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N19W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
68W-71W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO NE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF 23N BETWEEN 60W-72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED 310 NM SE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 15N56W MOVING NW AT 20-25
KT. A TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 57W-63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 54W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N23W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT 5-
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N56W TO 15N56W MOVING NW AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
10N30W TO 8N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N40W TO 8N47W TO 11N50W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 11W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 38W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N86W. 5-10 KT E TO SE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND SE GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT
23N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
96W-99W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE S GULF TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... 10-
20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
75W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 83W-87W. FURTHER S...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 77W-85W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR
20N81W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS MAINLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO...AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILING TODAY ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
AND TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24-27N BETWEEN 77W-
80W. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N19W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
68W-71W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO NE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF 23N BETWEEN 60W-72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii, and on recently upgraded Hurricane Lowell,
located about 800 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, have become a little better organized over the past few
hours.  Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Friday while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii, and on recently upgraded Hurricane Lowell,
located about 800 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, have become a little better organized over the past few
hours.  Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Friday while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211505
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 21/1500 UTC.
HURRICANE LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 122.2W AT 21/1500 UTC
MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT OF CENTER.
LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. A SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 1075 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING S AT 2 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 50? KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER. KARINA
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 10N96W MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE W GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 10N90W TO
15N96W AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 96W-101W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE LOW
HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 6N86W TO 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 10N96W THEN 9N103W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 330 NM OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 99W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH N-NW OF THE
AREA NEAR 40N143W THROUGH 32N132W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
29N115W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
LOWELL...AND SUPPORTS MODERATE WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA
AND LOWELL INFLUENCE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL MOVES UP AGAINST
THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN FAR NW PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED S AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND NUDGE INTO FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF
02S W OF 100W.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211505
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 21/1500 UTC.
HURRICANE LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 122.2W AT 21/1500 UTC
MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT OF CENTER.
LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. A SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 1075 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING S AT 2 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 50? KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER. KARINA
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 10N96W MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE W GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 10N90W TO
15N96W AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 96W-101W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE LOW
HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 6N86W TO 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 10N96W THEN 9N103W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 330 NM OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 99W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH N-NW OF THE
AREA NEAR 40N143W THROUGH 32N132W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
29N115W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
LOWELL...AND SUPPORTS MODERATE WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA
AND LOWELL INFLUENCE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL MOVES UP AGAINST
THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN FAR NW PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED S AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND NUDGE INTO FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF
02S W OF 100W.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211505
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 21/1500 UTC.
HURRICANE LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 122.2W AT 21/1500 UTC
MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT OF CENTER.
LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. A SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 1075 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING S AT 2 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 50? KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER. KARINA
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 10N96W MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE W GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 10N90W TO
15N96W AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 96W-101W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE LOW
HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 6N86W TO 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 10N96W THEN 9N103W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 330 NM OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 99W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH N-NW OF THE
AREA NEAR 40N143W THROUGH 32N132W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
29N115W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
LOWELL...AND SUPPORTS MODERATE WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA
AND LOWELL INFLUENCE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL MOVES UP AGAINST
THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN FAR NW PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED S AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND NUDGE INTO FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF
02S W OF 100W.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211505
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 21/1500 UTC.
HURRICANE LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 122.2W AT 21/1500 UTC
MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT OF CENTER.
LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. A SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 1075 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING S AT 2 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 50? KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER. KARINA
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 10N96W MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE W GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 10N90W TO
15N96W AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 96W-101W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE LOW
HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 6N86W TO 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 10N96W THEN 9N103W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 330 NM OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 99W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH N-NW OF THE
AREA NEAR 40N143W THROUGH 32N132W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
29N115W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
LOWELL...AND SUPPORTS MODERATE WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA
AND LOWELL INFLUENCE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL MOVES UP AGAINST
THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN FAR NW PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED S AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND NUDGE INTO FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF
02S W OF 100W.

$$
PAW



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 211434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA RESTRENGTHENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 136.9W
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1840 MI...2965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 211434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA RESTRENGTHENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 136.9W
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1840 MI...2965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 211433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 135.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 135.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 136.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 211433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 135.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 135.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 136.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 211433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 135.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 135.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 136.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 211433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 135.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 135.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 136.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 122.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY...
BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 122.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY...
BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 122.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY...
BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 122.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY...
BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211204
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A 350 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES HA CAMBIADO
UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS ULTIMAS HORAS. SE ESPERA
QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE
SE DESARROLLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 15 Y 20 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y
SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y
EL ESTE DE CUBA PUDIERAN LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO A PRINCIPIOS DEL FIN
DE SEMANA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS
CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA
CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS
BAHAMAS.

INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE
VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211204
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A 350 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES HA CAMBIADO
UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS ULTIMAS HORAS. SE ESPERA
QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE
SE DESARROLLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 15 Y 20 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y
SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y
EL ESTE DE CUBA PUDIERAN LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO A PRINCIPIOS DEL FIN
DE SEMANA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS
CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA
CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS
BAHAMAS.

INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE
VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211204
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A 350 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES HA CAMBIADO
UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS ULTIMAS HORAS. SE ESPERA
QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE
SE DESARROLLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 15 Y 20 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y
SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y
EL ESTE DE CUBA PUDIERAN LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO A PRINCIPIOS DEL FIN
DE SEMANA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS
CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA
CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS
BAHAMAS.

INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE
VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211204
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A 350 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES HA CAMBIADO
UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS ULTIMAS HORAS. SE ESPERA
QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE
SE DESARROLLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 15 Y 20 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y
SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y
EL ESTE DE CUBA PUDIERAN LIMITAR EL DESARROLLO A PRINCIPIOS DEL FIN
DE SEMANA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS
CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA
CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS
BAHAMAS.

INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...RAFAGAS DE
VIENTO Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 211145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU AUG 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 745 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO FLAIR UP
NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 965 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY
DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

$$

LAU







000
ABNT20 KNHC 211137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
has changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could
limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
early next week when the system is forecast to move near or over the
Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
has changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could
limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
early next week when the system is forecast to move near or over the
Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
has changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could
limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
early next week when the system is forecast to move near or over the
Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
has changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could
limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
early next week when the system is forecast to move near or over the
Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area
of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area
of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area
of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area
of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14N55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ATTACHED TO THIS LOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 51W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE MOVING WNW AT 10-15
KNOTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N23W TO 13N24W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N53W TO 12N56W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 09N-20N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
12N25W TO AN 1012 MB LOW AT 11N30W TO 08N37W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING
WATERS WEST OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY E OF 86W...BETWEEN 23N-26N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHERN CUBA. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS
THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...MOVING QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTH OF
JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA
COAST...E OF COSTA RICA FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT...CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS
MAINLY ACROSS EAST HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AHEAD OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE AND EMBEDDED
LOW APPROACH THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

QUIET WEATHER PREVAILING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23-
26N...BETWEEN 78W-80W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS NEAR 30491W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
RELATED TO THIS LOW NEAR 25N-28N...BETWEEN 64W-70W. EXPECT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA/HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14N55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ATTACHED TO THIS LOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 51W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE MOVING WNW AT 10-15
KNOTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N23W TO 13N24W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N53W TO 12N56W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 09N-20N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
12N25W TO AN 1012 MB LOW AT 11N30W TO 08N37W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING
WATERS WEST OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY E OF 86W...BETWEEN 23N-26N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHERN CUBA. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS
THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...MOVING QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTH OF
JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA
COAST...E OF COSTA RICA FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT...CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS
MAINLY ACROSS EAST HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AHEAD OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE AND EMBEDDED
LOW APPROACH THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

QUIET WEATHER PREVAILING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23-
26N...BETWEEN 78W-80W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS NEAR 30491W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
RELATED TO THIS LOW NEAR 25N-28N...BETWEEN 64W-70W. EXPECT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA/HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14N55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ATTACHED TO THIS LOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 51W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE MOVING WNW AT 10-15
KNOTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N23W TO 13N24W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N53W TO 12N56W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 09N-20N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
12N25W TO AN 1012 MB LOW AT 11N30W TO 08N37W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING
WATERS WEST OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY E OF 86W...BETWEEN 23N-26N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHERN CUBA. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS
THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...MOVING QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTH OF
JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA
COAST...E OF COSTA RICA FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT...CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS
MAINLY ACROSS EAST HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AHEAD OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE AND EMBEDDED
LOW APPROACH THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

QUIET WEATHER PREVAILING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23-
26N...BETWEEN 78W-80W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS NEAR 30491W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
RELATED TO THIS LOW NEAR 25N-28N...BETWEEN 64W-70W. EXPECT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA/HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14N55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ATTACHED TO THIS LOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 51W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE MOVING WNW AT 10-15
KNOTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N23W TO 13N24W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N53W TO 12N56W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 09N-20N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
12N25W TO AN 1012 MB LOW AT 11N30W TO 08N37W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING
WATERS WEST OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY E OF 86W...BETWEEN 23N-26N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHERN CUBA. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS
THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...MOVING QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTH OF
JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA
COAST...E OF COSTA RICA FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT...CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS
MAINLY ACROSS EAST HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AHEAD OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE AND EMBEDDED
LOW APPROACH THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

QUIET WEATHER PREVAILING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23-
26N...BETWEEN 78W-80W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS NEAR 30491W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
RELATED TO THIS LOW NEAR 25N-28N...BETWEEN 64W-70W. EXPECT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA/HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210927
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 136.2W AT 21/0900 UTC
MOVING ESE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING BUT LATER TODAY THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NE THEN N THROUGH
FRI. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAK THROUGH SAT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 121.9W AT 21/0900 UTC
MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE
N SEMICIRCLE...240 NM IN THE SE AND 300 NM IN THE SW QUADRANTS.
LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. LOWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE NW TONIGHT AND SLOWLY ACCELERATE THROUGH FRI. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N 94.5W 1007 MB MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 3-5
DAYS...AND A LARGE INTENSE CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THE LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W
TO 09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH WNW OF THE AREA
NEAR 40N143W TO 26N114W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOWELL...AND SUPPORTS MODERATE WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE
OF KARINA AND LOWELL INFLUENCE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL BUTTS
UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING
WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT IN FAR NW PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND NUDGE INTO FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF
02S-03S W OF 100W.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210927
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 136.2W AT 21/0900 UTC
MOVING ESE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING BUT LATER TODAY THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NE THEN N THROUGH
FRI. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAK THROUGH SAT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 121.9W AT 21/0900 UTC
MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE
N SEMICIRCLE...240 NM IN THE SE AND 300 NM IN THE SW QUADRANTS.
LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. LOWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE NW TONIGHT AND SLOWLY ACCELERATE THROUGH FRI. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N 94.5W 1007 MB MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 3-5
DAYS...AND A LARGE INTENSE CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THE LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W
TO 09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH WNW OF THE AREA
NEAR 40N143W TO 26N114W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOWELL...AND SUPPORTS MODERATE WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE
OF KARINA AND LOWELL INFLUENCE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL BUTTS
UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING
WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT IN FAR NW PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND NUDGE INTO FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF
02S-03S W OF 100W.

$$
MUNDELL


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210839
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LARGE LOWELL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 121.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  A NORTHWEST
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
PREDICTED TODAY...LOWELL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING
BEGINS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210839
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LARGE LOWELL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 121.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  A NORTHWEST
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
PREDICTED TODAY...LOWELL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING
BEGINS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210839
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LARGE LOWELL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 121.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  A NORTHWEST
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
PREDICTED TODAY...LOWELL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING
BEGINS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210839
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LARGE LOWELL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 121.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  A NORTHWEST
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
PREDICTED TODAY...LOWELL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING
BEGINS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210839
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 121.9W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 121.9W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 121.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.3N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.3N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210839
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 121.9W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 121.9W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 121.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.3N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.3N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 210837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 136.2W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1785 MI...2870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST.  KARINA IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.  A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 210837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 136.2W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1785 MI...2870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST.  KARINA IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.  A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 210837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 136.2W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1785 MI...2870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST.  KARINA IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.  A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 210837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 136.2W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1785 MI...2870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST.  KARINA IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.  A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 210837
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 136.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 136.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.1N 135.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.6N 134.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 136.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 210837
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 136.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 136.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.1N 135.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.6N 134.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 136.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210557 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
BARLOVENTO HA CAMBIADO UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS
ULTIMAS HORAS. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN
MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE SE DESARROLLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMOS DOS
DIAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES
DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO
MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA PUEDEN LIMITAR EL
DESARROLLO DURANTE LA PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE
ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO
A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS BAHAMAS.

SIN IMPORTAR SI SE FORMA UN CICLON TROPICAL O NO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO
Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CASA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO A QUE INVESTIGUQ LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210557 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
BARLOVENTO HA CAMBIADO UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS
ULTIMAS HORAS. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN
MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE SE DESARROLLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMOS DOS
DIAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES
DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO
MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA PUEDEN LIMITAR EL
DESARROLLO DURANTE LA PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE
ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO
A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS BAHAMAS.

SIN IMPORTAR SI SE FORMA UN CICLON TROPICAL O NO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO
Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CASA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO A QUE INVESTIGUQ LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210557 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
BARLOVENTO HA CAMBIADO UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS
ULTIMAS HORAS. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN
MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE SE DESARROLLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMOS DOS
DIAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES
DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO
MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA PUEDEN LIMITAR EL
DESARROLLO DURANTE LA PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE
ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO
A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS BAHAMAS.

SIN IMPORTAR SI SE FORMA UN CICLON TROPICAL O NO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO
Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CASA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO A QUE INVESTIGUQ LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210557 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT JUEVES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
BARLOVENTO HA CAMBIADO UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS
ULTIMAS HORAS. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN
MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE SE DESARROLLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMOS DOS
DIAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES
DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO
MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA PUEDEN LIMITAR EL
DESARROLLO DURANTE LA PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE
ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO
A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS BAHAMAS.

SIN IMPORTAR SI SE FORMA UN CICLON TROPICAL O NO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO
Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CASA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO A QUE INVESTIGUQ LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210557
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
BARLOVENTO HA CAMBIADO UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS
ULTIMAS HORAS. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN
MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE SE DESARROLLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMOS DOS
DIAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES
DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO
MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA PUEDEN LIMITAR EL
DESARROLLO DURANTE LA PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE
ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO
A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS BAHAMAS.

SIN IMPORTAR SI SE FORMA UN CICLON TROPICAL O NO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO
Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CASA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO A QUE INVESTIGUQ LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210557
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
BARLOVENTO HA CAMBIADO UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS
ULTIMAS HORAS. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN
MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE SE DESARROLLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMOS DOS
DIAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES
DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO
MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA PUEDEN LIMITAR EL
DESARROLLO DURANTE LA PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE
ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO
A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS BAHAMAS.

SIN IMPORTAR SI SE FORMA UN CICLON TROPICAL O NO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO
Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CASA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO A QUE INVESTIGUQ LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210557
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
BARLOVENTO HA CAMBIADO UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS
ULTIMAS HORAS. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN
MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE SE DESARROLLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMOS DOS
DIAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES
DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO
MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA PUEDEN LIMITAR EL
DESARROLLO DURANTE LA PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE
ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO
A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS BAHAMAS.

SIN IMPORTAR SI SE FORMA UN CICLON TROPICAL O NO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO
Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CASA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO A QUE INVESTIGUQ LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210557
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS A UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
BARLOVENTO HA CAMBIADO UN POCO EN TERMINOS DE ORGANIZACION EN LAS
ULTIMAS HORAS. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN
MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE SE DESARROLLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMOS DOS
DIAS...Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES
DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. EL TERRENO
MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA PUEDEN LIMITAR EL
DESARROLLO DURANTE LA PRIMERA PARTE DEL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO SE
ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES SE HAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO
A COMIENZOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA CUANDO SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS BAHAMAS.

SIN IMPORTAR SI SE FORMA UN CICLON TROPICAL O NO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO
Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SON POSIBLE A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL
VIERNES...Y SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE EL VIERNES Y SABADO. LOS
INTERESADOS EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO. UN AVION CASA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
ESTA PROGRAMADO A QUE INVESTIGUQ LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE DE SER
NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 210557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12N54W...IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALSO ATTACHED TO THIS LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 52W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE
MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N22W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N53W TO 13N54W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
9N38W TO 13N52W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N54W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 35W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING
WATERS EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY E OF 83W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF TAMPICO
MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
GULF NEAR 26N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS HIGH CENTER
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NNW GULF FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 93W-96W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...MOVING QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA AND NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA COAST...E OF COSTA RICA
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 79W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE MAJORITY
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER N HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W
THAT EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW AND TROPICAL
WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER E HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG
25N BETWEEN 78W-79W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 36N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR
30N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
24N67W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA/HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 210557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12N54W...IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALSO ATTACHED TO THIS LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 52W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE
MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N22W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N53W TO 13N54W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
9N38W TO 13N52W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N54W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 35W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING
WATERS EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY E OF 83W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF TAMPICO
MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
GULF NEAR 26N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS HIGH CENTER
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NNW GULF FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 93W-96W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...MOVING QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA AND NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA COAST...E OF COSTA RICA
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 79W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE MAJORITY
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER N HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W
THAT EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW AND TROPICAL
WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER E HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG
25N BETWEEN 78W-79W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 36N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR
30N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
24N67W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA/HUFFMAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 210551
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE
LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 970 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY
DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 210551
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE
LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 970 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY
DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL





000
ABNT20 KNHC 210533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands have changed little in organization during the past
several hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  The mountainous terrain of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could limit development during the first
part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to be conducive for
development early next week when the system is forecast to move near
or over the Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 210533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands have changed little in organization during the past
several hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  The mountainous terrain of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could limit development during the first
part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to be conducive for
development early next week when the system is forecast to move near
or over the Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 210533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands have changed little in organization during the past
several hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  The mountainous terrain of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could limit development during the first
part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to be conducive for
development early next week when the system is forecast to move near
or over the Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 210533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands have changed little in organization during the past
several hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  The mountainous terrain of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could limit development during the first
part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to be conducive for
development early next week when the system is forecast to move near
or over the Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210532
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have not become any better organized during the past
few hours.  However, environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210532
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have not become any better organized during the past
few hours.  However, environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210532
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have not become any better organized during the past
few hours.  However, environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210532
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have not become any better organized during the past
few hours.  However, environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 136.4W AT 21/0300
UTC AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM IN THE E AND 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 14N137W TO
11N140W. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AN EASTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300
UTC MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE...240 NM IN THE SE AND 300 NM
IN THE SW QUADRANTS. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION
WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE
CENTER. LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THU THROUGH FRI. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES IS NEAR 09.5N94.5W AT 1007 MB MOVING W AT AROUND 5-10
KT WITH A TROUGH AXIS...FORMERLY A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. AN
EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG E-SE WINDS NE OF THE LOW AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS
ENERGY WILL FEED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AROUND
THE LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A
WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 09.5N94.5W TO 06N103W TO 10N115W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E
OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 93W...WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 99W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N143W
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N128W TO NEAR THE
MEXICO/CALIFORNIA BORDER NEAR 32N117W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF LOWELL. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI AS LOWELL MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS DEVELOPING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN THE NW
PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD
REMAIN SUPPRESSED JUST S OF THE EQUATOR.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 136.4W AT 21/0300
UTC AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM IN THE E AND 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 14N137W TO
11N140W. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AN EASTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300
UTC MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE...240 NM IN THE SE AND 300 NM
IN THE SW QUADRANTS. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION
WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE
CENTER. LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THU THROUGH FRI. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES IS NEAR 09.5N94.5W AT 1007 MB MOVING W AT AROUND 5-10
KT WITH A TROUGH AXIS...FORMERLY A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. AN
EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG E-SE WINDS NE OF THE LOW AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS
ENERGY WILL FEED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AROUND
THE LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A
WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 09.5N94.5W TO 06N103W TO 10N115W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E
OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 93W...WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 99W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N143W
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N128W TO NEAR THE
MEXICO/CALIFORNIA BORDER NEAR 32N117W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF LOWELL. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI AS LOWELL MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS DEVELOPING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN THE NW
PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD
REMAIN SUPPRESSED JUST S OF THE EQUATOR.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 210246
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA STALLS OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 136.4W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1790 MI...2880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.4 WEST. KARINA HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD TO THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 210246
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA STALLS OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 136.4W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1790 MI...2880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.4 WEST. KARINA HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD TO THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 210245
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 136.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.5N 135.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.6N 135.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.3N 134.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.4N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 136.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 210245
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 136.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.5N 135.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.6N 135.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.3N 134.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.4N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 136.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
EYE DIAMETER  90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
EYE DIAMETER  90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 121.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 121.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
EYE DIAMETER  90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
EYE DIAMETER  90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 121.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 121.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
EYE DIAMETER  90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
EYE DIAMETER  90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 121.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 121.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
EYE DIAMETER  90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
EYE DIAMETER  90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 121.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 121.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202352
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTA LENTAMENTE ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR. DESARROLLO
ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS Y UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y
HACIA EL MAR CARIBE. LUEGO...LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA PODRIA
LIMITAR EL POTENCIAL DE DESARROLLO DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE LA FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...VIENTOS
EN RAFAGAS Y LLUVIA FUERTE SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES EL JUEVES EN LA
NOCHE Y VIERNES. LOS INTERESES EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA MANANA EN
LA TARDE...DE SER NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202352
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTA LENTAMENTE ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR. DESARROLLO
ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS Y UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y
HACIA EL MAR CARIBE. LUEGO...LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA PODRIA
LIMITAR EL POTENCIAL DE DESARROLLO DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE LA FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...VIENTOS
EN RAFAGAS Y LLUVIA FUERTE SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES EL JUEVES EN LA
NOCHE Y VIERNES. LOS INTERESES EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA MANANA EN
LA TARDE...DE SER NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202352
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTA LENTAMENTE ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR. DESARROLLO
ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS Y UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y
HACIA EL MAR CARIBE. LUEGO...LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA PODRIA
LIMITAR EL POTENCIAL DE DESARROLLO DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE LA FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...VIENTOS
EN RAFAGAS Y LLUVIA FUERTE SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES EL JUEVES EN LA
NOCHE Y VIERNES. LOS INTERESES EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA MANANA EN
LA TARDE...DE SER NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202352
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTA LENTAMENTE ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR. DESARROLLO
ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS Y UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y
HACIA EL MAR CARIBE. LUEGO...LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA PODRIA
LIMITAR EL POTENCIAL DE DESARROLLO DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE LA FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL...VIENTOS
EN RAFAGAS Y LLUVIA FUERTE SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES EL JUEVES EN LA
NOCHE Y VIERNES. LOS INTERESES EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA MANANA EN
LA TARDE...DE SER NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 202348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N53W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE. THE
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N21W TO 14N23W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE TO BE S OF 21N.
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AT 12N53W IS EMBEDDED ON THE BASE OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
13N24W TO 8N30W TO 14N46W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N53W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
33W-38W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 44W-49W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
58W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. AIRMASS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 24N97W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-
88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
77W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N91W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW
AND TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
77W-80W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
36N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
64W-69W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
BE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 202348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N53W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE. THE
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N21W TO 14N23W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE TO BE S OF 21N.
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AT 12N53W IS EMBEDDED ON THE BASE OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
13N24W TO 8N30W TO 14N46W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N53W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
33W-38W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 44W-49W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
58W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. AIRMASS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 24N97W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-
88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
77W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N91W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW
AND TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
77W-80W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
36N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
64W-69W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
BE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 202348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N53W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE. THE
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N21W TO 14N23W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE TO BE S OF 21N.
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AT 12N53W IS EMBEDDED ON THE BASE OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
13N24W TO 8N30W TO 14N46W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N53W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
33W-38W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 44W-49W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
58W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. AIRMASS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 24N97W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-
88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
77W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N91W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW
AND TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
77W-80W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
36N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
64W-69W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
BE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 202348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N53W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE. THE
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N21W TO 14N23W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE TO BE S OF 21N.
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AT 12N53W IS EMBEDDED ON THE BASE OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
13N24W TO 8N30W TO 14N46W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N53W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
33W-38W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 44W-49W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
58W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. AIRMASS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 24N97W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-
88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
77W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N91W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW
AND TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
77W-80W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
36N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
64W-69W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
BE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 202344
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LOW...BUT
ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU IS
MOVING WEST SLOWLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ACPN50 PHFO 202344
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LOW...BUT
ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU IS
MOVING WEST SLOWLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
ABNT20 KNHC 202340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is slowly becoming better organized.  Additional development
is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that
time, land interaction could limit development potential over the
weekend.  Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday.
Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of
this system.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the low tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is slowly becoming better organized.  Additional development
is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that
time, land interaction could limit development potential over the
weekend.  Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday.
Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of
this system.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the low tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is slowly becoming better organized.  Additional development
is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that
time, land interaction could limit development potential over the
weekend.  Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday.
Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of
this system.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the low tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is slowly becoming better organized.  Additional development
is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that
time, land interaction could limit development potential over the
weekend.  Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday.
Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of
this system.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the low tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202339
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located near 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

A large low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is moving west-northwestward at about 10
mph.  Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and
organization during the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are becoming more conducive for a tropical depression to
form during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202339
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located near 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

A large low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is moving west-northwestward at about 10
mph.  Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and
organization during the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are becoming more conducive for a tropical depression to
form during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 136.7W AT 20/2100
UTC AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
CENTER...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 15N137W TO
12N140W. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND AN EASTWARD DRIFT
SHOULD BEGIN ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100
UTC MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM IN THE N AND 240 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLES. LOWELL
REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTENDING OUT AS MUCH AS 180 NM FROM THE CENTER. LOWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON THU THROUGH FRI. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94W 1008
MB TO 16N95W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
THE WATERS N OF 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE...N OF 09N E OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 14N W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO 100W. AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS NE OF THE LOW AND E
OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS ENERGY WILL FEED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF
THE LOW WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE AROUND THE LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 09.5N94W TO 06N103W TO 10N114W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E
OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 81W AND BETWEEN 82W AND
86W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 103W...AND
FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N143W
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N137W TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N115W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF LOWELL TO THE SE-S. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THU
THROUGH FRI AS LOWELL MOVES MOVE INTO THE RIDGE WITH FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN THE NW
PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD
REMAIN SUPPRESSED S OF THE EQUATOR.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 202045
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.7W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.7W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.7N 136.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.2N 136.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.1N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 136.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 202045
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.7W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.7W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.7N 136.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.2N 136.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.1N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 136.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 202045
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA BARELY MOVING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 136.7W
ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1815 MI...2915 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST.  KARINA
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY.  AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 202045
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA BARELY MOVING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 136.7W
ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1815 MI...2915 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST.  KARINA
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY.  AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 202031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 122.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.9N 127.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 121.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 121.5W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 202031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 122.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.9N 127.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 121.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 121.5W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 202031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 122.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.9N 127.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 121.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 121.5W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 202031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 122.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.9N 127.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 121.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 121.5W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
AXNT20 KNHC 201805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N53W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. SCATTERED STRONG ALSO IS FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS
FEATURE. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS THE CLOSEST TO THE WAVE...FROM 7N TO
15N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N50W 19N49W 14N48W
10N48W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 49W AND
50W. OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS CLOSER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N53W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.92 IN TRINIDAD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL...NEAR 18N16W...TO 14N26W 14N40W...TO THE 11N53W SPECIAL
FEATURE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 8N57W. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N98W CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES
FROM 19N IN MEXICO TO 28N ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 93W AND
103W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS TO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N76W TO 27N81W
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SIDE...FROM 90W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 88W. ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
28N63W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB
GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTAL BORDER.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SITES.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

IN TEXAS...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI
AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AND/OR HAVE
BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN AREAS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL
AIRPORT...AND IN BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. IN LOUISIANA...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE CHARLES
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IN
ALABAMA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN GULF
SHORES. IN FLORIDA...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KEY WEST. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN
NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE GULF OF MEXICO 12 HOUR FORECAST ALONG YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE REST OF HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 53W
AND 80W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN GENERAL FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 55W AND 80W...AND SPECIFICALLY FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
62W AND 68W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...FROM THE CURRENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.92 IN TRINIDAD.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO
COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.92 IN TRINIDAD... 0.51 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO...AND 0.12 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 75W IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...ATLC AND CARIBBEAN LOW PRES NEAR 11N53W 1009 MB MOVING
NW 10 KT WITH TROUGH NE TO 13N50W. WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH S TO SW WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
LOW...AND WITHIN 90 OF TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
CARIBBEAN SEA 12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 32N46W. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 30W FROM
20N NORTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH 28N63W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N87W...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
COASTAL BORDER.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...LOW PRES NEAR 11N53W 1009 MB MOVING NW 10
KT WITH TROUGH NE TO 13N50W. WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH S TO SW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW...AND
WITHIN 90 OF TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N53W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. SCATTERED STRONG ALSO IS FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS
FEATURE. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS THE CLOSEST TO THE WAVE...FROM 7N TO
15N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N50W 19N49W 14N48W
10N48W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 49W AND
50W. OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS CLOSER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N53W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.92 IN TRINIDAD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL...NEAR 18N16W...TO 14N26W 14N40W...TO THE 11N53W SPECIAL
FEATURE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 8N57W. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N98W CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES
FROM 19N IN MEXICO TO 28N ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 93W AND
103W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS TO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N76W TO 27N81W
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SIDE...FROM 90W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 88W. ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
28N63W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB
GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTAL BORDER.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SITES.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

IN TEXAS...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI
AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AND/OR HAVE
BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN AREAS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL
AIRPORT...AND IN BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. IN LOUISIANA...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE CHARLES
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IN
ALABAMA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN GULF
SHORES. IN FLORIDA...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KEY WEST. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN
NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE GULF OF MEXICO 12 HOUR FORECAST ALONG YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE REST OF HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 53W
AND 80W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN GENERAL FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 55W AND 80W...AND SPECIFICALLY FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
62W AND 68W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...FROM THE CURRENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.92 IN TRINIDAD.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO
COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.92 IN TRINIDAD... 0.51 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO...AND 0.12 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 75W IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...ATLC AND CARIBBEAN LOW PRES NEAR 11N53W 1009 MB MOVING
NW 10 KT WITH TROUGH NE TO 13N50W. WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH S TO SW WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
LOW...AND WITHIN 90 OF TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
CARIBBEAN SEA 12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 32N46W. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 30W FROM
20N NORTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH 28N63W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N87W...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
COASTAL BORDER.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...LOW PRES NEAR 11N53W 1009 MB MOVING NW 10
KT WITH TROUGH NE TO 13N50W. WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH S TO SW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW...AND
WITHIN 90 OF TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201756
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA DURANTE
LAS PASADAS HORAS. DESARROLLO LENTO ADICIONAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL
PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y HACIA
EL MAR CARIBE. LUEGO...LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA PUDIERA LIMITAR EL
POTENCIAL DE DESARROLLO DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE
DE LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL...VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS Y LLUVIA
FUERTE SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL JUEVES EN
LA NOCHE Y VIERNES. LOS INTERESES EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS
AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA
DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTARIA INVESTIGANDO ESTE SISTEMA MANANA EN LA
TARDE...DE SER NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201756
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA DURANTE
LAS PASADAS HORAS. DESARROLLO LENTO ADICIONAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL
PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y HACIA
EL MAR CARIBE. LUEGO...LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA PUDIERA LIMITAR EL
POTENCIAL DE DESARROLLO DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE
DE LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL...VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS Y LLUVIA
FUERTE SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL JUEVES EN
LA NOCHE Y VIERNES. LOS INTERESES EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS
AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA
DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTARIA INVESTIGANDO ESTE SISTEMA MANANA EN LA
TARDE...DE SER NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201756
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA DURANTE
LAS PASADAS HORAS. DESARROLLO LENTO ADICIONAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL
PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y HACIA
EL MAR CARIBE. LUEGO...LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA PUDIERA LIMITAR EL
POTENCIAL DE DESARROLLO DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE
DE LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL...VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS Y LLUVIA
FUERTE SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL JUEVES EN
LA NOCHE Y VIERNES. LOS INTERESES EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS
AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA
DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTARIA INVESTIGANDO ESTE SISTEMA MANANA EN LA
TARDE...DE SER NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201756
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA DURANTE
LAS PASADAS HORAS. DESARROLLO LENTO ADICIONAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS Y UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL
PUDIERA FORMARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y HACIA
EL MAR CARIBE. LUEGO...LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA PUDIERA LIMITAR EL
POTENCIAL DE DESARROLLO DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE
DE LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL...VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS Y LLUVIA
FUERTE SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE AREAS DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL JUEVES EN
LA NOCHE Y VIERNES. LOS INTERESES EN ESAS ISLAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS
AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA
DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTARIA INVESTIGANDO ESTE SISTEMA MANANA EN LA
TARDE...DE SER NECESARIO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 201749
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands has become a little better organized during the past few
hours. Additional slow development of this system is possible during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser
Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land
interaction could limit development potential over the weekend.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ACPN50 PHFO 201746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE OVER 900 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS MOVING WEST
SLOWLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE
SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE OVER 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE
LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


$$

BRAVENDER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 201746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. LOW PRESSURE OVER 900 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS MOVING WEST
SLOWLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LOW...BUT ARE
SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. LOW PRESSURE OVER 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE
LOW...BUT ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


$$

BRAVENDER





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201730
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located near 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
have increased this morning. Although there are no signs of
organization yet, conditions are forecast to be conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201730
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located near 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
have increased this morning. Although there are no signs of
organization yet, conditions are forecast to be conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201730
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located near 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
have increased this morning. Although there are no signs of
organization yet, conditions are forecast to be conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201730
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located near 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
have increased this morning. Although there are no signs of
organization yet, conditions are forecast to be conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201455
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500
UTC AND IS NEAR STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
OVER ALL BUT THE NW QUADRANT. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.
KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING EASTWARD THU. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500
UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 118W-
124W. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL
STORM WINDS EXTENDING OUT FROM THE CENTER TO 170 NM. ALTIMETER
PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT SEA HEIGHT DATA FOR
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RADIUS
OF 12 FT SEAS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF OF MEXICO IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N95W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 08N94W MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA N OF 9N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA/MEXICO BETWEEN 88W-102W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERIPHERAL WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 8N94W
ALONG 8N104W TO 9N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 77W-
82W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N133W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
30N116W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
INFLUENCE OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT N AS
LOWELL MOVES POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS . THIS WILL
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA INCREASING WINDS TO STRONG BY FRI MORNING.

STRONG GAP WINDS ARE IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT W TODAY BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
23N126W TO E OF T.S. LOWELL NEAR 17N110W. THIS IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 104W-112W AND FROM 19N-25N E OF 110W TO COAST OF MEXICO
INCLUDING S GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201455
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500
UTC AND IS NEAR STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
OVER ALL BUT THE NW QUADRANT. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.
KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING EASTWARD THU. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500
UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 118W-
124W. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL
STORM WINDS EXTENDING OUT FROM THE CENTER TO 170 NM. ALTIMETER
PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT SEA HEIGHT DATA FOR
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RADIUS
OF 12 FT SEAS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF OF MEXICO IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N95W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 08N94W MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA N OF 9N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA/MEXICO BETWEEN 88W-102W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERIPHERAL WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 8N94W
ALONG 8N104W TO 9N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 77W-
82W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N133W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
30N116W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
INFLUENCE OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT N AS
LOWELL MOVES POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS . THIS WILL
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA INCREASING WINDS TO STRONG BY FRI MORNING.

STRONG GAP WINDS ARE IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT W TODAY BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
23N126W TO E OF T.S. LOWELL NEAR 17N110W. THIS IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 104W-112W AND FROM 19N-25N E OF 110W TO COAST OF MEXICO
INCLUDING S GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

$$
PAW



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 201434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 136.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. KARINA
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 121.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 121.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 201434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 201434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 201434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 201434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 136.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. KARINA
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 121.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 201434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 201434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 136.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. KARINA
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 121.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 201434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 201434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 136.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. KARINA
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 121.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201215 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

CORRECTION TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
INCLUDING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W. THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO 24N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-24W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N21W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND IN
VICINITY OF A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N45W TO 23N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N59W TO 21N61W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 19N95W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE EAST
PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS REMAIN
MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
13N26W TO 15N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N53W TO 08N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-28W...
AND FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS FROM 24N-
28N BETWEEN 91W-96W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
82W-96W DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 22N64W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN
THE MONA PASSAGE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-
71W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 32N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N81W TO
BEYOND 32N78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201215 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

CORRECTION TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
INCLUDING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W. THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO 24N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-24W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N21W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND IN
VICINITY OF A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N45W TO 23N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N59W TO 21N61W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 19N95W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE EAST
PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS REMAIN
MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
13N26W TO 15N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N53W TO 08N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-28W...
AND FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS FROM 24N-
28N BETWEEN 91W-96W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
82W-96W DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 22N64W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN
THE MONA PASSAGE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-
71W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 32N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N81W TO
BEYOND 32N78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ESTA ASOCIADA CON UN
AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO SUR. DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE
SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
Y HACIA EL MAR CARIBE. LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y EL
NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE
SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADAS. DE OCURRIR ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...DEBE
SER LENTO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA HACIA EL
OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LUEGO...DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA
NO SE ANTICIPA A MEDIDA QUE COMIENCE A INTERACTUAR CON EL DISTURBIO
LOCALIZADO AL OESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ESTA ASOCIADA CON UN
AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO SUR. DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE
SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
Y HACIA EL MAR CARIBE. LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y EL
NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE
SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADAS. DE OCURRIR ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...DEBE
SER LENTO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA HACIA EL
OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LUEGO...DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA
NO SE ANTICIPA A MEDIDA QUE COMIENCE A INTERACTUAR CON EL DISTURBIO
LOCALIZADO AL OESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 201143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ACPN50 PHFO 201130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 850 MILES
SOUTH OF HONOLULU. IRREGULAR...PULSING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ACPN50 PHFO 201130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 850 MILES
SOUTH OF HONOLULU. IRREGULAR...PULSING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201122
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for this system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of
the week while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201122
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for this system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of
the week while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO 24N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-24W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N21W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND IN
VICINITY OF A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N45W TO 23N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N59W TO 21N61W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 19N95W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE EAST
PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS REMAIN
MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
13N26W TO 15N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N53W TO 08N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-28W...
AND FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS FROM 24N-
28N BETWEEN 91W-96W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
82W-96W DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 22N64W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN
THE MONA PASSAGE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-
71W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 32N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N81W TO
BEYOND 32N78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO 24N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-24W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N21W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND IN
VICINITY OF A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N45W TO 23N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N59W TO 21N61W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 19N95W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE EAST
PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS REMAIN
MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
13N26W TO 15N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N53W TO 08N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-28W...
AND FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS FROM 24N-
28N BETWEEN 91W-96W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
82W-96W DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 22N64W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN
THE MONA PASSAGE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-
71W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 32N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N81W TO
BEYOND 32N78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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