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000
WTCA45 TJSJ 020858
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   3
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
400 AM CDT MARTES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...DOLLY MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE SOBRE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE Y
HACIA MEXICO...


RESUMEN DE LA 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
-------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.6 NORTE 94.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 210 MILLAS...335 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO
CERCA DE 200 MILLAS...320 KM AL ESTE DE TAMPICO MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
HACIA EL NORTE HASTA BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
DOLLY ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.8 OESTE.
DOLLY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20
KM/H...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DEBE CONTINUAR ESTA MANANA. UN GIRO
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA ESTA TARDE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE APROXIMARA A LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO
DEL AREA BAJA AVISO ESTA NOCHE...Y SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO EL
MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE
45 MPH...75 KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA
FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS HASTA QUE
DOLLY ENTRE A TIERRA.

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185
KM...MAYORMENTE DESDE EL NORESTE A SURESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO PARA ESTA NOCHE.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...700 AM CDT.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1000 AM CDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART























000
WTCA45 TJSJ 020858
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   3
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
400 AM CDT MARTES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...DOLLY MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE SOBRE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE Y
HACIA MEXICO...


RESUMEN DE LA 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
-------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.6 NORTE 94.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 210 MILLAS...335 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO
CERCA DE 200 MILLAS...320 KM AL ESTE DE TAMPICO MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
HACIA EL NORTE HASTA BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
DOLLY ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.8 OESTE.
DOLLY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20
KM/H...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DEBE CONTINUAR ESTA MANANA. UN GIRO
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA ESTA TARDE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE APROXIMARA A LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO
DEL AREA BAJA AVISO ESTA NOCHE...Y SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO EL
MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE
45 MPH...75 KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA
FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS HASTA QUE
DOLLY ENTRE A TIERRA.

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185
KM...MAYORMENTE DESDE EL NORESTE A SURESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO PARA ESTA NOCHE.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...700 AM CDT.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1000 AM CDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART























000
WTCA45 TJSJ 020858
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   3
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
400 AM CDT MARTES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...DOLLY MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE SOBRE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE Y
HACIA MEXICO...


RESUMEN DE LA 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
-------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.6 NORTE 94.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 210 MILLAS...335 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO
CERCA DE 200 MILLAS...320 KM AL ESTE DE TAMPICO MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
HACIA EL NORTE HASTA BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
DOLLY ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.8 OESTE.
DOLLY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20
KM/H...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DEBE CONTINUAR ESTA MANANA. UN GIRO
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA ESTA TARDE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE APROXIMARA A LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO
DEL AREA BAJA AVISO ESTA NOCHE...Y SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO EL
MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE
45 MPH...75 KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA
FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS HASTA QUE
DOLLY ENTRE A TIERRA.

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185
KM...MAYORMENTE DESDE EL NORESTE A SURESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO PARA ESTA NOCHE.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...700 AM CDT.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1000 AM CDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART























000
WTCA45 TJSJ 020858
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   3
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
400 AM CDT MARTES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...DOLLY MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE SOBRE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE Y
HACIA MEXICO...


RESUMEN DE LA 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
-------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.6 NORTE 94.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 210 MILLAS...335 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO
CERCA DE 200 MILLAS...320 KM AL ESTE DE TAMPICO MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
HACIA EL NORTE HASTA BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
DOLLY ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.8 OESTE.
DOLLY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20
KM/H...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DEBE CONTINUAR ESTA MANANA. UN GIRO
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA ESTA TARDE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE APROXIMARA A LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO
DEL AREA BAJA AVISO ESTA NOCHE...Y SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO EL
MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE
45 MPH...75 KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA
FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS HASTA QUE
DOLLY ENTRE A TIERRA.

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185
KM...MAYORMENTE DESDE EL NORESTE A SURESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO PARA ESTA NOCHE.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...700 AM CDT.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1000 AM CDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART























000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020850
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N107W. THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE HAS BEEN DROPPED ON THE 02/0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW OVER THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 106W-112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM 14N109W TO 10N122W AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 102W-110W.
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT YET
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION OR PERSISTENCE FOR THE LOW TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W TO 8N93W THEN RESUMES FROM THE
1006 MB LOW NEAR 16N107W TO 18N115W TO 12N126W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
45/60 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 3N AND N OF 6N TO OVER
PANAMA BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG ENTIRE COAST OF COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 90W-100W
AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 98W-105W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 100W AND 120W. THIS IS ENHANCING THE SEAS HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR LATER
TODAY WITH SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 3N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 115W AND 130W
AND CONTINUING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 7N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 105W AND
135W WED INTO THU.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020850
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N107W. THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE HAS BEEN DROPPED ON THE 02/0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW OVER THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 106W-112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM 14N109W TO 10N122W AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 102W-110W.
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT YET
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION OR PERSISTENCE FOR THE LOW TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W TO 8N93W THEN RESUMES FROM THE
1006 MB LOW NEAR 16N107W TO 18N115W TO 12N126W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
45/60 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 3N AND N OF 6N TO OVER
PANAMA BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG ENTIRE COAST OF COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 90W-100W
AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 98W-105W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 100W AND 120W. THIS IS ENHANCING THE SEAS HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR LATER
TODAY WITH SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 3N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 115W AND 130W
AND CONTINUING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 7N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 105W AND
135W WED INTO THU.

$$
PAW



000
WTNT35 KNHC 020845
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...DOLLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HEADING
TOWARD MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 94.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNTIL DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT25 KNHC 020844
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  94.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  94.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT25 KNHC 020844
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  94.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  94.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT25 KNHC 020844
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  94.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  94.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT25 KNHC 020844
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  94.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  94.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020801
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system southwest of Mexico.

Updated:  Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located about 300 miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, is producing a small area of gale-force winds.  Although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not yet acquired
sufficient organization or persistence for the low to be considered
a tropical cyclone, only a slight increase in organization would
lead to the development of a tropical storm, and advisories could be
initiated later today.  This system is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward near the southwestern coast of
Mexico and the extreme southern Baja California peninsula during the
next few days, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of the disturbance.  Locally heavy rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

For additional information on the low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 020621
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS EN LA
RECIEN FORMADA TORMENTA TROPICAL DOLLY...LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL
SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO.

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION PODRA FORMARSE ENTRE LA COSTA OESTE DE
AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE PARA EL VIERNES. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN ESTAR CONDUCENTES PARA UN DESARROLLO
ADICIONAL HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE A ALREDEDOR DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

&&
ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ESTAN SIENDO
EMITIDAS BAJO EN WMO CON EL NOMBRE DE WTNT35 KNHC Y BAJO AWIPS CON
EL ENCABEZADO DE MIATCPAT5. PRONOSTICOS/ADVERTENCIAS ACERCA DE LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO SON EMITIDOS BAJO EN WMO CON EL ENCABEZADO
DE WTNT25 KNHC Y EN AWIPS COMO MIATCMAT5.

$$


PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 020621
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS EN LA
RECIEN FORMADA TORMENTA TROPICAL DOLLY...LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL
SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO.

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION PODRA FORMARSE ENTRE LA COSTA OESTE DE
AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE PARA EL VIERNES. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN ESTAR CONDUCENTES PARA UN DESARROLLO
ADICIONAL HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE A ALREDEDOR DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

&&
ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ESTAN SIENDO
EMITIDAS BAJO EN WMO CON EL NOMBRE DE WTNT35 KNHC Y BAJO AWIPS CON
EL ENCABEZADO DE MIATCPAT5. PRONOSTICOS/ADVERTENCIAS ACERCA DE LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO SON EMITIDOS BAJO EN WMO CON EL ENCABEZADO
DE WTNT25 KNHC Y EN AWIPS COMO MIATCMAT5.

$$


PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 020621
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS EN LA
RECIEN FORMADA TORMENTA TROPICAL DOLLY...LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL
SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO.

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION PODRA FORMARSE ENTRE LA COSTA OESTE DE
AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE PARA EL VIERNES. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN ESTAR CONDUCENTES PARA UN DESARROLLO
ADICIONAL HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE A ALREDEDOR DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

&&
ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ESTAN SIENDO
EMITIDAS BAJO EN WMO CON EL NOMBRE DE WTNT35 KNHC Y BAJO AWIPS CON
EL ENCABEZADO DE MIATCPAT5. PRONOSTICOS/ADVERTENCIAS ACERCA DE LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO SON EMITIDOS BAJO EN WMO CON EL ENCABEZADO
DE WTNT25 KNHC Y EN AWIPS COMO MIATCMAT5.

$$


PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 020621
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS EN LA
RECIEN FORMADA TORMENTA TROPICAL DOLLY...LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL
SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO.

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION PODRA FORMARSE ENTRE LA COSTA OESTE DE
AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE PARA EL VIERNES. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN ESTAR CONDUCENTES PARA UN DESARROLLO
ADICIONAL HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE A ALREDEDOR DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

&&
ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ESTAN SIENDO
EMITIDAS BAJO EN WMO CON EL NOMBRE DE WTNT35 KNHC Y BAJO AWIPS CON
EL ENCABEZADO DE MIATCPAT5. PRONOSTICOS/ADVERTENCIAS ACERCA DE LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO SON EMITIDOS BAJO EN WMO CON EL ENCABEZADO
DE WTNT25 KNHC Y EN AWIPS COMO MIATCMAT5.

$$


PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
WTCA45 TJSJ 020616
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO   2A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 AM CDT MARTES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE HA FORTALECIDO
A TORMENTA TROPICAL DOLLY SOBRE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE...


RESUMEN DE LA 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMACION
-------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.4 NORTE 94.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 220 MILLAS...360 KM AL ESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 310 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

NINGUNO

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
DOLLY FUE RE LOCALIZADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMINETO DE LA RESERVA
DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y UNA BOYA DE NOAA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4
NORTE...LONGITUD 94.4 OESTE. DOLLY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL
NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/H. UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE SE ESPERA ESTA TARDE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL
CENTRO SE APROXIMARA A LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL AREA BAJA AVISO
ESTA NOCHE...Y SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA.

REPORTES DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO Y LOS VIENTOS DERIVADOS POR
SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE
45 MPH...75 KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA
FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS HASTA QUE
DOLLY ENTRE A TIERRA.

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 60 MILLAS...95
KM...MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE A SURESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO PARA ESTA NOCHE.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...400 AM CDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART/BERG





















000
WTCA45 TJSJ 020616
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO   2A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 AM CDT MARTES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE HA FORTALECIDO
A TORMENTA TROPICAL DOLLY SOBRE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE...


RESUMEN DE LA 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMACION
-------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.4 NORTE 94.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 220 MILLAS...360 KM AL ESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 310 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

NINGUNO

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
DOLLY FUE RE LOCALIZADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMINETO DE LA RESERVA
DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y UNA BOYA DE NOAA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4
NORTE...LONGITUD 94.4 OESTE. DOLLY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL
NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/H. UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE SE ESPERA ESTA TARDE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL
CENTRO SE APROXIMARA A LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL AREA BAJA AVISO
ESTA NOCHE...Y SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA.

REPORTES DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO Y LOS VIENTOS DERIVADOS POR
SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE
45 MPH...75 KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA
FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS HASTA QUE
DOLLY ENTRE A TIERRA.

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 60 MILLAS...95
KM...MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE A SURESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO PARA ESTA NOCHE.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...400 AM CDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART/BERG




















000
ABNT20 KNHC 020550
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020550
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTNT35 KNHC 020549
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
100 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMEPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
RE-LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA BUOY DATA NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. DOLLY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND
DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG




000
WTNT35 KNHC 020549
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
100 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMEPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
RE-LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA BUOY DATA NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. DOLLY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND
DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG



000
ACPN50 PHFO 020545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 020545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 020545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 020545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$

REYNES





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020532
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms appear to be consolidating near a
developing low pressure system located about 300 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression could
form in the next day or two while the system moves slowly northward
and then northwestward.  Locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days and could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the extreme southern
Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
disturbance during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020532
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms appear to be consolidating near a
developing low pressure system located about 300 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression could
form in the next day or two while the system moves slowly northward
and then northwestward.  Locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days and could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the extreme southern
Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
disturbance during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
AXNT20 KNHC 020528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 02/0300 UTC...THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
CENTER IS NEAR 21.0N 93.9W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW AT 09 KT AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TSTMS IS FROM 19N-
22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION EXTENDS TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AROUND 200 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N28W TO 07N28W...MOVING WEST AT 10
KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 26W-
31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N44W TO 10N49W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AND
DRY AIR IS ALSO SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES S OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 48W-50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N61W TO 10N61W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SOME DRY
SAHARAN AIR IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN ITS SOUTHERN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N71W TO 10N72W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N20W TO 07N27W TO 06N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N35W TO 10N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 07N58W.
THE ONLY CONVECTION PRESENT NEAR THESE FEATURES ARE RELATED TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE W FLORIDA COAST GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS...MAINLY ALONG 83W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW
GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT
PREVAILS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
BASIN HINDERING THE FORMATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15
KT SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH
IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY LEFT BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE PASSAGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN
72W-80W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 27N51W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO 105W/106W N OF 12N INTO
THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS AND
EXTENDED N TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUADALAJARA AND LAS ISLAS
TRES MARIAS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 108W MAY
AID IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 116W/117W AT 1800 UTC HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. LONG PERIOD
SATELLITE LOOPS AND TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT A GOOD PORTION
OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
EXTENDING FROM 120W NE TO THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS ALONG
104W/105W. THIS WAVE HAS THUS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 0000 UTC
SURFACE MAP.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N75W TO 07.5N80W TO 16N104W TO
10N123W TO 10N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND
99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 18N TO 21.5N E OF 110W TO
MEXICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1013 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N140W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS VERY
BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N AND
NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 120W TO 104W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO 105W/106W N OF 12N INTO
THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS AND
EXTENDED N TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUADALAJARA AND LAS ISLAS
TRES MARIAS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 108W MAY
AID IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 116W/117W AT 1800 UTC HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. LONG PERIOD
SATELLITE LOOPS AND TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT A GOOD PORTION
OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
EXTENDING FROM 120W NE TO THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS ALONG
104W/105W. THIS WAVE HAS THUS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 0000 UTC
SURFACE MAP.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N75W TO 07.5N80W TO 16N104W TO
10N123W TO 10N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND
99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 18N TO 21.5N E OF 110W TO
MEXICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1013 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N140W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS VERY
BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N AND
NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 120W TO 104W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO 105W/106W N OF 12N INTO
THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS AND
EXTENDED N TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUADALAJARA AND LAS ISLAS
TRES MARIAS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 108W MAY
AID IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 116W/117W AT 1800 UTC HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. LONG PERIOD
SATELLITE LOOPS AND TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT A GOOD PORTION
OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
EXTENDING FROM 120W NE TO THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS ALONG
104W/105W. THIS WAVE HAS THUS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 0000 UTC
SURFACE MAP.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N75W TO 07.5N80W TO 16N104W TO
10N123W TO 10N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND
99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 18N TO 21.5N E OF 110W TO
MEXICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1013 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N140W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS VERY
BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N AND
NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 120W TO 104W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO 105W/106W N OF 12N INTO
THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS AND
EXTENDED N TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUADALAJARA AND LAS ISLAS
TRES MARIAS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 108W MAY
AID IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 116W/117W AT 1800 UTC HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. LONG PERIOD
SATELLITE LOOPS AND TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT A GOOD PORTION
OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
EXTENDING FROM 120W NE TO THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS ALONG
104W/105W. THIS WAVE HAS THUS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 0000 UTC
SURFACE MAP.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N75W TO 07.5N80W TO 16N104W TO
10N123W TO 10N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND
99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 18N TO 21.5N E OF 110W TO
MEXICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1013 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N140W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS VERY
BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N AND
NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 120W TO 104W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
WTCA45 TJSJ 020244
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM CDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...DEPRESION PRONOSTICADA FORTALECER LENTAMENTE...


RESUMEN DE LA 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...21.0 NORTE 93.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 225 MILLAS...365 KM AL ESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 310 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

NINGUNO

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
CINCO FUE LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.9
OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA EL MARTES.
EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE APROXIMARA A LA COSTA
DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL AREA BAJA AVISO PARA EL MARTES EN LA NOCHE...Y
SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE OCURRA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE
CONVIERTA EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO PARA TARDE EL MARTES.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA INTERMEDIA COMPLETA...100 AM CDT.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...400 AM CDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


















000
WTCA45 TJSJ 020244
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM CDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...DEPRESION PRONOSTICADA FORTALECER LENTAMENTE...


RESUMEN DE LA 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...21.0 NORTE 93.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 225 MILLAS...365 KM AL ESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 310 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

NINGUNO

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
CINCO FUE LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.9
OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA EL MARTES.
EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE APROXIMARA A LA COSTA
DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL AREA BAJA AVISO PARA EL MARTES EN LA NOCHE...Y
SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE OCURRA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE
CONVIERTA EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO PARA TARDE EL MARTES.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA INTERMEDIA COMPLETA...100 AM CDT.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...400 AM CDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


















000
WTCA45 TJSJ 020244
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM CDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...DEPRESION PRONOSTICADA FORTALECER LENTAMENTE...


RESUMEN DE LA 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...21.0 NORTE 93.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 225 MILLAS...365 KM AL ESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 310 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

NINGUNO

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
CINCO FUE LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.9
OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA EL MARTES.
EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE APROXIMARA A LA COSTA
DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL AREA BAJA AVISO PARA EL MARTES EN LA NOCHE...Y
SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE OCURRA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE
CONVIERTA EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO PARA TARDE EL MARTES.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA INTERMEDIA COMPLETA...100 AM CDT.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...400 AM CDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


















000
WTCA45 TJSJ 020244
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM CDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...DEPRESION PRONOSTICADA FORTALECER LENTAMENTE...


RESUMEN DE LA 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...21.0 NORTE 93.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 225 MILLAS...365 KM AL ESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 310 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

NINGUNO

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
CINCO FUE LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.9
OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA EL MARTES.
EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE APROXIMARA A LA COSTA
DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL AREA BAJA AVISO PARA EL MARTES EN LA NOCHE...Y
SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE OCURRA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE
CONVIERTA EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO PARA TARDE EL MARTES.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA INTERMEDIA COMPLETA...100 AM CDT.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...400 AM CDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


















000
WTNT35 KNHC 020236
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT35 KNHC 020236
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTNT25 KNHC 020235
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  93.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  93.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  93.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.7N  95.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.3N  96.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.7N  98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTNT25 KNHC 020235
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  93.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  93.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  93.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.7N  95.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.3N  96.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.7N  98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTNT25 KNHC 020235
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  93.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  93.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  93.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.7N  95.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.3N  96.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.7N  98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTNT25 KNHC 020235
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  93.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  93.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  93.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.7N  95.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.3N  96.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.7N  98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 020007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 2100
UTC. AT 2/0000 UTC THE LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS NEAR
20.5N 93.7W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 24N IN
THE SW GULF AND EXTEND INLAND INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N24W TO 6N26W...MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N42W TO 10N47W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. ENHANCED
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N59W TO 9N59W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS SOUTHERN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 54W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N70W TO 11N70W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO 6N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N34W
TO 10N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. FOR
CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N87W TO 28N82W AND A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N83W. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW
GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT
PREVAILS. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W-SW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN
THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS
MAINLY TO THE SE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THIS
REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 25N51W. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 2100
UTC. THE LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS NEAR 20.1N
93.6W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 24N IN THE SW
GULF AND EXTEND INLAND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N24W TO 6N26W...MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N42W TO 10N47W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. ENHANCED
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N59W TO 9N59W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS SOUTHERN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 54W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N70W TO 11N70W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO 6N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N34W
TO 10N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. FOR
CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N87W TO 28N82W AND A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N83W. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW
GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT
PREVAILS. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W-SW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN
THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS
MAINLY TO THE SE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THIS
REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 25N51W. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 2100
UTC. THE LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS NEAR 20.1N
93.6W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 24N IN THE SW
GULF AND EXTEND INLAND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N24W TO 6N26W...MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N42W TO 10N47W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. ENHANCED
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N59W TO 9N59W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS SOUTHERN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 54W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N70W TO 11N70W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO 6N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N34W
TO 10N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. FOR
CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N87W TO 28N82W AND A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N83W. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW
GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT
PREVAILS. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W-SW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN
THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS
MAINLY TO THE SE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THIS
REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 25N51W. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 2100
UTC. THE LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS NEAR 20.1N
93.6W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 24N IN THE SW
GULF AND EXTEND INLAND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N24W TO 6N26W...MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N42W TO 10N47W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. ENHANCED
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N59W TO 9N59W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS SOUTHERN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 54W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N70W TO 11N70W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO 6N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N34W
TO 10N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. FOR
CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N87W TO 28N82W AND A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N83W. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW
GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT
PREVAILS. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W-SW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN
THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS
MAINLY TO THE SE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THIS
REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 25N51W. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 2100
UTC. THE LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS NEAR 20.1N
93.6W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 24N IN THE SW
GULF AND EXTEND INLAND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N24W TO 6N26W...MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N42W TO 10N47W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. ENHANCED
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N59W TO 9N59W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS SOUTHERN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 54W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N70W TO 11N70W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO 6N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N34W
TO 10N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. FOR
CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N87W TO 28N82W AND A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N83W. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW
GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT
PREVAILS. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W-SW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN
THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS
MAINLY TO THE SE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THIS
REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 25N51W. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012357
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS EN LA
RECIEN FORMADA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO...LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL
SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO.

NO SE ESPERA NINGUNA OTRA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS CINCO DIAS.

&&
ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ESTAN SIENDO
EMITIDAS BAJO EN WMO CON EL NOMBRE DE WTNT35 KNHC Y BAJO AWIPS CON
EL ENCABEZADO DE MIATCPAT5. PRONOSTICOS/ADVERTENCIAS ACERCA DE LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO SON EMITIDOS BAJO EN WMO CON EL ENCABEZADO
DE WTNT25 KNHC Y EN AWIPS COMO MIATCMAT5.

$$


PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012357
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS EN LA
RECIEN FORMADA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO...LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL
SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO.

NO SE ESPERA NINGUNA OTRA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS CINCO DIAS.

&&
ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ESTAN SIENDO
EMITIDAS BAJO EN WMO CON EL NOMBRE DE WTNT35 KNHC Y BAJO AWIPS CON
EL ENCABEZADO DE MIATCPAT5. PRONOSTICOS/ADVERTENCIAS ACERCA DE LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO SON EMITIDOS BAJO EN WMO CON EL ENCABEZADO
DE WTNT25 KNHC Y EN AWIPS COMO MIATCMAT5.

$$


PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
WTCA45 TJSJ 012352
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   1A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM CDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...LA DEPRESION ESTA MOVIENDOSE A TRAVES DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE...


RESUMEN DE LA 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMACION
-------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.5 NORTE 93.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 240 MILLAS...390 KM AL ESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

NINGUNO

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
A LAS 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
CINCO FUE LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.7
OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12
MPH...19 KM/H. UN MOVIMIENTO ENTRE OESTE NOROESTE Y NOROESTE SE
ESPERA CONTINUE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE ACERCARA A LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL
AREA BAJA AVISO PARA EL MARTES EN LA NOCHE.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE OCURRA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y ES POSIBLE QUE LA DEPRESION SE
CONVIERTA EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS  PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL TARDE EL MARTES.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1000PM CDT

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN















000
ACPN50 PHFO 012345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 012345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012344
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the southwestern
coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week.  This disturbance is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward and could produce locally heavy
rains over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012344
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricance Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Five, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012344
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the southwestern
coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week.  This disturbance is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward and could produce locally heavy
rains over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012344
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricance Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Five, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012343
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the southwestern
coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week.  This disturbance is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward and could produce locally heavy
rains over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012343
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the southwestern
coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week.  This disturbance is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward and could produce locally heavy
rains over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
WTNT35 KNHC 012341
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
700 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 93.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT35 KNHC 012341
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
700 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 93.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-17N. THERE IS
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND
119W WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE INTERACTING.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WAS ALONG 96/97W FROM 10N INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY HELP FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N75W TO 08.5N84W TO 15.5N105W TO
10N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W...AND
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 180 NM SW OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 90W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 99W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N139.5W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS
VERY BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N
AND NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8
FT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 120W TO 103W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-17N. THERE IS
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND
119W WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE INTERACTING.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WAS ALONG 96/97W FROM 10N INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY HELP FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N75W TO 08.5N84W TO 15.5N105W TO
10N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W...AND
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 180 NM SW OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 90W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 99W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N139.5W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS
VERY BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N
AND NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8
FT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 120W TO 103W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-17N. THERE IS
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND
119W WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE INTERACTING.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WAS ALONG 96/97W FROM 10N INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY HELP FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N75W TO 08.5N84W TO 15.5N105W TO
10N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W...AND
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 180 NM SW OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 90W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 99W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N139.5W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS
VERY BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N
AND NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8
FT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 120W TO 103W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-17N. THERE IS
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND
119W WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE INTERACTING.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WAS ALONG 96/97W FROM 10N INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY HELP FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N75W TO 08.5N84W TO 15.5N105W TO
10N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W...AND
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 180 NM SW OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 90W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 99W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N139.5W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS
VERY BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N
AND NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8
FT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 120W TO 103W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
WTCA45 TJSJ 012115
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   1
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
400 AM CDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...SE FORMO UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE...


RESUMEN DE LA 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
-------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.1 NORTE 93.6 OESTE
CERCA DE 255 MILLAS...410 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE-NOROESTE O 295 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA
LAS COSTAS DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
RESPORTES DEL AVION DE RECONOCMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA E IMAGENES
DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE EL AREA DE BAJA PRESION SOBRE EL SUROESTE
DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO SE HA CONVERTIDO EN UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL.

A LAS 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
CINCO FUE LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.6
OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA
DE 13 MPH...20 KM/H...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO EN GENERAL SE ESPERA
CONTINUE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE ACERCARA A LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL
AREA BAJA AVISO PARA EL MARTES EN LA NOCHE.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE OCURRA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y ES POSIBLE QUE LA DEPRESION SE
CONVIERTA EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES.

EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO MIDIO UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 1009
MB...29.80 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS  PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...TARDE EL MARTES SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...700PM CDT
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1000PM CDT

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH











000
WTCA45 TJSJ 012115
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   1
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL052014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
400 AM CDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...SE FORMO UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE...


RESUMEN DE LA 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
-------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.1 NORTE 93.6 OESTE
CERCA DE 255 MILLAS...410 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE-NOROESTE O 295 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA
LAS COSTAS DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* TUXPAN HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN EN ALGUN LUGAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICION NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
--------------------------------------------------
RESPORTES DEL AVION DE RECONOCMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA E IMAGENES
DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE EL AREA DE BAJA PRESION SOBRE EL SUROESTE
DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO SE HA CONVERTIDO EN UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL.

A LAS 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
CINCO FUE LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.6
OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA
DE 13 MPH...20 KM/H...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO EN GENERAL SE ESPERA
CONTINUE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE ACERCARA A LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL
AREA BAJA AVISO PARA EL MARTES EN LA NOCHE.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE OCURRA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS...Y ES POSIBLE QUE LA DEPRESION SE
CONVIERTA EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES.

EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO MIDIO UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 1009
MB...29.80 PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ENTRE 3 Y 6 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL SUR DE TAMAULIPAS...AL NORTE DE VERA CRUZ...Y AL ESTE DE
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO HASTA EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PROBABLEMENTE PRODUZCAN DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO E INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO LA VIDA DE LAS  PERSONAS.

VIENTOS...TARDE EL MARTES SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...700PM CDT
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1000PM CDT

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH












000
WTNT35 KNHC 012035
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 93.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTNT25 KNHC 012035
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  93.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  93.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  93.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N  93.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011811
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure extending several hundred miles west-
southwestward from near the southwestern coast of Mexico continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week while the disturbance moves slowly northward
and then northwestward.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico later this
week which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011811
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure extending several hundred miles west-
southwestward from near the southwestern coast of Mexico continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week while the disturbance moves slowly northward
and then northwestward.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico later this
week which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011811
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure extending several hundred miles west-
southwestward from near the southwestern coast of Mexico continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week while the disturbance moves slowly northward
and then northwestward.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico later this
week which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011811
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure extending several hundred miles west-
southwestward from near the southwestern coast of Mexico continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week while the disturbance moves slowly northward
and then northwestward.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico later this
week which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 1500 UTC A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N95W TO
22N95W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO S MEXICO AT 18N92W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-97W. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE GULF WATERS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N23W
TO 7N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 3N-16N E OF 29W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N40W TO 10N44W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-16N
BETWEEN 40W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 44W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N57W TO 10N59W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 55W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N68W TO 10N68W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
6N20W TO 5N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N31W TO 10N45W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 MB LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT
SE SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF NE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 22N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S LOUISIANA
...THE CENTRAL GULF...THE SE GULF...AND S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N94W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR
23N88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SPECIAL FEATURE
LOW TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER E CUBA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND HONDURAS. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTER BAHAMAS
AT 24N74W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO JAMAICA.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
20N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER HAITI DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NW OF THE ISLAND. ALSO
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N55W. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N74W
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 63W-70W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N30W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 1500 UTC A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N95W TO
22N95W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO S MEXICO AT 18N92W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-97W. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE GULF WATERS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N23W
TO 7N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 3N-16N E OF 29W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N40W TO 10N44W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-16N
BETWEEN 40W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 44W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N57W TO 10N59W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 55W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N68W TO 10N68W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
6N20W TO 5N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N31W TO 10N45W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 MB LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT
SE SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF NE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 22N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S LOUISIANA
...THE CENTRAL GULF...THE SE GULF...AND S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N94W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR
23N88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SPECIAL FEATURE
LOW TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER E CUBA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND HONDURAS. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTER BAHAMAS
AT 24N74W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO JAMAICA.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
20N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER HAITI DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NW OF THE ISLAND. ALSO
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N55W. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N74W
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 63W-70W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N30W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011758
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE A UNAS 300 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. UN
AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA INVESTIGANDO EL
SISTEMA PARA VER SI TIENE UN CENTRO BIEN DEFINIDO. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES APARENTAN ESTAR FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO...Y
ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY
O MARTES A MEDIDA QE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH. LOS INTERESES A LO LARGO DEL OESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN
MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO...YA QUE SE PUDIERAN EMITIR
VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE
SISTEMA PRODUCIRA FUERTES LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN Y EL SURESTE DE MEXICO HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE
SECTORES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO EL MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011758
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE A UNAS 300 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. UN
AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA INVESTIGANDO EL
SISTEMA PARA VER SI TIENE UN CENTRO BIEN DEFINIDO. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES APARENTAN ESTAR FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO...Y
ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY
O MARTES A MEDIDA QE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH. LOS INTERESES A LO LARGO DEL OESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN
MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO...YA QUE SE PUDIERAN EMITIR
VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE
SISTEMA PRODUCIRA FUERTES LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN Y EL SURESTE DE MEXICO HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE
SECTORES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO EL MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ABNT20 KNHC 011754
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche
about 300 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.  An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the
low to see if a well-defined center of circulation has formed.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression later today or
on Tuesday while it moves west-northwestward near 10 mph.  Interests
along the western Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this disturbance, since watches or warnings could soon be
required.  Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy
rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today
and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on
Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011754
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche
about 300 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.  An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the
low to see if a well-defined center of circulation has formed.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression later today or
on Tuesday while it moves west-northwestward near 10 mph.  Interests
along the western Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this disturbance, since watches or warnings could soon be
required.  Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy
rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today
and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on
Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ACPN50 PHFO 011746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 011746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure extending several hundred miles west-
southwestward from near the southwestern coast of Mexico continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by
late this week while the disturbance moves slowly northward and then
northwestward.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico later this week
which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure extending several hundred miles west-
southwestward from near the southwestern coast of Mexico continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by
late this week while the disturbance moves slowly northward and then
northwestward.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico later this week
which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ACPN60 PHFO 011600
TWSCP

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFC
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
600 AM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

THREE TROPICAL CYCLONES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER /CPHC/ AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST
2014.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT
THE WEB SITE OF CPHC...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC/SUMMARIES/

NOTE...THE SUMMARY TABLE BELOW ONLY INCLUDES TROPICAL CYCLONES IN
THE CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...AND THE DATES ARE BASED ON
COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME...UTC.

SUMMARY TABLE FOR THE 2014 CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND /MPH/
--------------------------------------------------
TS WALI             17-19 JUL           40
MH GENEVIEVE     27 JUL-7 AUG          115
H  ISELLE             6-9 AUG          100
H  JULIO             8-15 AUG          105
---------------------------------------------------

$$

CPHC HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ACPN60 PHFO 011600
TWSCP

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFC
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
600 AM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

THREE TROPICAL CYCLONES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER /CPHC/ AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST
2014.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT
THE WEB SITE OF CPHC...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC/SUMMARIES/

NOTE...THE SUMMARY TABLE BELOW ONLY INCLUDES TROPICAL CYCLONES IN
THE CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...AND THE DATES ARE BASED ON
COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME...UTC.

SUMMARY TABLE FOR THE 2014 CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND /MPH/
--------------------------------------------------
TS WALI             17-19 JUL           40
MH GENEVIEVE     27 JUL-7 AUG          115
H  ISELLE             6-9 AUG          100
H  JULIO             8-15 AUG          105
---------------------------------------------------

$$

CPHC HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011508
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N. THERE IS
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE
INTERACTING.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 96/97W FROM 10N INTO THE FAR W GULF
OF MEXICO. THERE IS A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE
EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY HELP FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 15.5N96W TO 16N104W TO
11N116W TO 09N134W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO
ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 300 NM
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N139W. ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 121W TO 101W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 01N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W BY WED MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011508
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N. THERE IS
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE
INTERACTING.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 96/97W FROM 10N INTO THE FAR W GULF
OF MEXICO. THERE IS A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE
EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY HELP FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 15.5N96W TO 16N104W TO
11N116W TO 09N134W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO
ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 300 NM
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N139W. ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 121W TO 101W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 01N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W BY WED MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL



000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011429
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FOUR STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST.  ALL FOUR BECAME
HURRICANES...AND TWO OF THOSE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES.  IN
ADDITION...ISELLE...WHICH FORMED AT THE END OF JULY...ALSO BECAME
A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...
THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH TWO
BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE OF THOSE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 60 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE VALUE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
MH AMANDA          22-29 MAY           155
TS BORIS*            2-4 JUN            45
MH CRISTINA*        9-15 JUN           150
TS DOUGLAS      28 JUN-5 JUL            45
TS ELIDA*       30 JUN-2 JUL            50
TS FAUSTO            7-9 JUL            45
MH GENEVIEVE   25 JUL-13 AUG**         160
H  HERNAN          26-29 JUL            75
MH ISELLE       31 JUL-9 AUG**         140
MH JULIO            4-15 AUG**         115
H  KARINA          13-26 AUG            80
H  LOWELL          18-24 AUG            75
MH MARIE           22-29 AUG           160
---------------------------------------------------

*   DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.
**  DATES INCLUDE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IN THE CENTRAL
    AND/OR WESTERN PACIFIC BASINS.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011429
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FOUR STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST.  ALL FOUR BECAME
HURRICANES...AND TWO OF THOSE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES.  IN
ADDITION...ISELLE...WHICH FORMED AT THE END OF JULY...ALSO BECAME
A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...
THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH TWO
BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE OF THOSE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 60 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE VALUE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
MH AMANDA          22-29 MAY           155
TS BORIS*            2-4 JUN            45
MH CRISTINA*        9-15 JUN           150
TS DOUGLAS      28 JUN-5 JUL            45
TS ELIDA*       30 JUN-2 JUL            50
TS FAUSTO            7-9 JUL            45
MH GENEVIEVE   25 JUL-13 AUG**         160
H  HERNAN          26-29 JUL            75
MH ISELLE       31 JUL-9 AUG**         140
MH JULIO            4-15 AUG**         115
H  KARINA          13-26 AUG            80
H  LOWELL          18-24 AUG            75
MH MARIE           22-29 AUG           160
---------------------------------------------------

*   DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.
**  DATES INCLUDE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IN THE CENTRAL
    AND/OR WESTERN PACIFIC BASINS.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011429
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FOUR STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST.  ALL FOUR BECAME
HURRICANES...AND TWO OF THOSE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES.  IN
ADDITION...ISELLE...WHICH FORMED AT THE END OF JULY...ALSO BECAME
A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...
THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH TWO
BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE OF THOSE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 60 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE VALUE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
MH AMANDA          22-29 MAY           155
TS BORIS*            2-4 JUN            45
MH CRISTINA*        9-15 JUN           150
TS DOUGLAS      28 JUN-5 JUL            45
TS ELIDA*       30 JUN-2 JUL            50
TS FAUSTO            7-9 JUL            45
MH GENEVIEVE   25 JUL-13 AUG**         160
H  HERNAN          26-29 JUL            75
MH ISELLE       31 JUL-9 AUG**         140
MH JULIO            4-15 AUG**         115
H  KARINA          13-26 AUG            80
H  LOWELL          18-24 AUG            75
MH MARIE           22-29 AUG           160
---------------------------------------------------

*   DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.
**  DATES INCLUDE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IN THE CENTRAL
    AND/OR WESTERN PACIFIC BASINS.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011429
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FOUR STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST.  ALL FOUR BECAME
HURRICANES...AND TWO OF THOSE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES.  IN
ADDITION...ISELLE...WHICH FORMED AT THE END OF JULY...ALSO BECAME
A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...
THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH TWO
BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE OF THOSE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 60 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE VALUE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
MH AMANDA          22-29 MAY           155
TS BORIS*            2-4 JUN            45
MH CRISTINA*        9-15 JUN           150
TS DOUGLAS      28 JUN-5 JUL            45
TS ELIDA*       30 JUN-2 JUL            50
TS FAUSTO            7-9 JUL            45
MH GENEVIEVE   25 JUL-13 AUG**         160
H  HERNAN          26-29 JUL            75
MH ISELLE       31 JUL-9 AUG**         140
MH JULIO            4-15 AUG**         115
H  KARINA          13-26 AUG            80
H  LOWELL          18-24 AUG            75
MH MARIE           22-29 AUG           160
---------------------------------------------------

*   DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.
**  DATES INCLUDE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IN THE CENTRAL
    AND/OR WESTERN PACIFIC BASINS.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ABNT30 KNHC 011156
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN AUGUST...BOTH
OF WHICH BECAME HURRICANES. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010)
CLIMATOLOGY...THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN
AUGUST...WITH ONE OR TWO OF THOSE BECOMING HURRICANES. A MAJOR
HURRICANE OCCURS IN AUGUST IN ABOUT 7 OUT OF 10 YEARS.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 45 PERCENT OF THE 1981-
2010 AVERAGE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
H  BERTHA            1-6 AUG            80
H  CRISTOBAL       23-29 AUG            85
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011156
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN AUGUST...BOTH
OF WHICH BECAME HURRICANES. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010)
CLIMATOLOGY...THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN
AUGUST...WITH ONE OR TWO OF THOSE BECOMING HURRICANES. A MAJOR
HURRICANE OCCURS IN AUGUST IN ABOUT 7 OUT OF 10 YEARS.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 45 PERCENT OF THE 1981-
2010 AVERAGE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
H  BERTHA            1-6 AUG            80
H  CRISTOBAL       23-29 AUG            85
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA
BAHIA DE CAMPECHE. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES APARENTAN ESTAR
FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO...Y ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS A MEDIDA QE SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. UN AVION DE
RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA
INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES NECESARIO.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA FUERTES
LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL SURESTE DE MEXICO
HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO EL
MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA
BAHIA DE CAMPECHE. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES APARENTAN ESTAR
FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO...Y ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS A MEDIDA QE SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. UN AVION DE
RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA
INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES NECESARIO.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA FUERTES
LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL SURESTE DE MEXICO
HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO EL
MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA
BAHIA DE CAMPECHE. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES APARENTAN ESTAR
FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO...Y ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS A MEDIDA QE SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. UN AVION DE
RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA
INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES NECESARIO.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA FUERTES
LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL SURESTE DE MEXICO
HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO EL
MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA
BAHIA DE CAMPECHE. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES APARENTAN ESTAR
FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO...Y ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS A MEDIDA QE SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. UN AVION DE
RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA
INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES NECESARIO.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA FUERTES
LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL SURESTE DE MEXICO
HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO EL
MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form by late week while the disturbance
moves slowly northward and then northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form by late week while the disturbance
moves slowly northward and then northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the eastern Bay
of Campeche.  Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for
some development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward near 10
mph.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of
development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across the
Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today and Tuesday, and
across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the eastern Bay
of Campeche.  Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for
some development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward near 10
mph.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of
development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across the
Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today and Tuesday, and
across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF
WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO
11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF
23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W.  WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT
WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY
ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF
WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO
11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF
23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W.  WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT
WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY
ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF
WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO
11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF
23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W.  WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT
WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY
ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF
WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO
11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF
23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W.  WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT
WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY
ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AS IT
APPROACHES THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA ALONG
91W/92W N OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATER THIS MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N88W 15N100W
14N107W 11N119W TO 10N128W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 13N TO OVER MEXICO
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH
E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-114W AND WITHIN 120 NM S
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N138W
AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NW OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
EXTENDS NARROW RIDGES TO THE E AND TO THE SW OF THE 1012 MB LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA. THE STRONG SW
MONSOON FLOW WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE SW COAST OF MEXICO BUILDING
SEAS TO 10 FT MON NIGHT THEN A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUE NIGHT NEAR 18N107W BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 130W TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9
FT S OF 4N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY WED AND REMAIN THROUGH THU.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AS IT
APPROACHES THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA ALONG
91W/92W N OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATER THIS MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N88W 15N100W
14N107W 11N119W TO 10N128W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 13N TO OVER MEXICO
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH
E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-114W AND WITHIN 120 NM S
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N138W
AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NW OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
EXTENDS NARROW RIDGES TO THE E AND TO THE SW OF THE 1012 MB LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA. THE STRONG SW
MONSOON FLOW WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE SW COAST OF MEXICO BUILDING
SEAS TO 10 FT MON NIGHT THEN A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUE NIGHT NEAR 18N107W BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 130W TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9
FT S OF 4N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY WED AND REMAIN THROUGH THU.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AS IT
APPROACHES THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA ALONG
91W/92W N OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATER THIS MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N88W 15N100W
14N107W 11N119W TO 10N128W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 13N TO OVER MEXICO
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH
E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-114W AND WITHIN 120 NM S
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N138W
AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NW OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
EXTENDS NARROW RIDGES TO THE E AND TO THE SW OF THE 1012 MB LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA. THE STRONG SW
MONSOON FLOW WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE SW COAST OF MEXICO BUILDING
SEAS TO 10 FT MON NIGHT THEN A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUE NIGHT NEAR 18N107W BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 130W TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9
FT S OF 4N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY WED AND REMAIN THROUGH THU.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AS IT
APPROACHES THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA ALONG
91W/92W N OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATER THIS MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N88W 15N100W
14N107W 11N119W TO 10N128W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 13N TO OVER MEXICO
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH
E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-114W AND WITHIN 120 NM S
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N138W
AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NW OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
EXTENDS NARROW RIDGES TO THE E AND TO THE SW OF THE 1012 MB LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA. THE STRONG SW
MONSOON FLOW WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE SW COAST OF MEXICO BUILDING
SEAS TO 10 FT MON NIGHT THEN A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUE NIGHT NEAR 18N107W BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 130W TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9
FT S OF 4N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY WED AND REMAIN THROUGH THU.

$$
PAW



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010609
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA AL SUR DE CAMPACHE EN LA
COSTA OESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
GRANDE DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DISPERSAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA
DEMOSTRANDO ORGANIZACION MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE
ALREDEDOR DE 10 MPH...Y UN DESARROLLO DE DEPRESION TROPICAL ES
POSIBLE CUANDO EL CENTRO DEL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LAS AGUAS
CALIENTES DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE MAS TARDE HOY HASTA EL MARTES. UN
AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA
PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES
NECESARIO. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA
PRODUCIRA FUERTES LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL
SURESTE DE MEXICO HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL ESTE
DE MEXICO EL MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010609
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA AL SUR DE CAMPACHE EN LA
COSTA OESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
GRANDE DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DISPERSAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA
DEMOSTRANDO ORGANIZACION MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE
ALREDEDOR DE 10 MPH...Y UN DESARROLLO DE DEPRESION TROPICAL ES
POSIBLE CUANDO EL CENTRO DEL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LAS AGUAS
CALIENTES DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE MAS TARDE HOY HASTA EL MARTES. UN
AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA
PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES
NECESARIO. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA
PRODUCIRA FUERTES LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL
SURESTE DE MEXICO HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL ESTE
DE MEXICO EL MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL





000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ABNT20 KNHC 010551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 010551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 010551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 010551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO 15N91W...MOVING W AT
5 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N23W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE W OF THE AXIS ALONG
20W...BETWEEN 12N-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N38W TO 09N41W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN
42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N54W TO 08N54W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 10N...BETWEEN 54W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 20 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 09N65W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N24W TO 09N40W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 07N59W. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 26N94W.
WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE
CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THAT PERIOD. SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 54W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL
BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG
26N68W TO 20N72W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 40N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO 15N91W...MOVING W AT
5 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N23W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE W OF THE AXIS ALONG
20W...BETWEEN 12N-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N38W TO 09N41W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN
42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N54W TO 08N54W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 10N...BETWEEN 54W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 20 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 09N65W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N24W TO 09N40W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 07N59W. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 26N94W.
WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE
CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THAT PERIOD. SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 54W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL
BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG
26N68W TO 20N72W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 40N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO 15N91W...MOVING W AT
5 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N23W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE W OF THE AXIS ALONG
20W...BETWEEN 12N-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N38W TO 09N41W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN
42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N54W TO 08N54W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 10N...BETWEEN 54W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 20 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 09N65W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N24W TO 09N40W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 07N59W. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 26N94W.
WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE
CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THAT PERIOD. SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 54W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL
BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG
26N68W TO 20N72W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 40N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO 15N91W...MOVING W AT
5 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N23W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE W OF THE AXIS ALONG
20W...BETWEEN 12N-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N38W TO 09N41W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN
42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N54W TO 08N54W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 10N...BETWEEN 54W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 20 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 09N65W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N24W TO 09N40W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 07N59W. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 26N94W.
WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE
CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THAT PERIOD. SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 54W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL
BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG
26N68W TO 20N72W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 40N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010528
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance during the next several days while it moves slowly
northward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010528
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance during the next several days while it moves slowly
northward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 111W-112 FROM 08N TO 17N
MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 14.5N BETWEEN
108W AND 116W...WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS
THE PORTION OF THE TROF E OF 110W DRIFTS N TOWARD THE MEXICAN
COASTAL WATERS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74.5W TO 06.5N80W TO 14N99W
TO 09N125W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM
S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN
115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 102W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31.5N138.5W...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER.
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MON
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
42N150W AND EXTENDED A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN
INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 118W BY MONDAY EVENING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAS MOVED
THROUGH FRENCH POLYNESIA TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
EQUATOR W OF 110W EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THIS SW SWELL S OF 05N AND W OF 115W BY TUE
EVENING...AND REACH AS FAR AS 10N W OF 110W BY THU MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 111W-112 FROM 08N TO 17N
MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 14.5N BETWEEN
108W AND 116W...WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS
THE PORTION OF THE TROF E OF 110W DRIFTS N TOWARD THE MEXICAN
COASTAL WATERS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74.5W TO 06.5N80W TO 14N99W
TO 09N125W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM
S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN
115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 102W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31.5N138.5W...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER.
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MON
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
42N150W AND EXTENDED A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN
INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 118W BY MONDAY EVENING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAS MOVED
THROUGH FRENCH POLYNESIA TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
EQUATOR W OF 110W EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THIS SW SWELL S OF 05N AND W OF 115W BY TUE
EVENING...AND REACH AS FAR AS 10N W OF 110W BY THU MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N89W TO 12N92W...MOVING W AT
5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE INLAND IN
THE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 27N. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N22W TO 7N21W. ACCORDING TO UPPER-AIR
TIME SECTION ANALYSES FROM DAKAR SENEGAL...THE WAVE CAME OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST EARLY TODAY. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
220 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 1N-17N E OF 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N36W TO 9N38W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 500 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N51W TO 7N51W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE  ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N64W TO 10N64W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY.
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N24W 7N35W TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
8N45W TO 7N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. THE WAVE IS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IS
FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
GULF S OF 28N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 26N81W TO
29N83W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND WITHIN
80 NM OF THE COASTLINE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE W-SW GULF DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE S-SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EAST
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR
IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 17W
BETWEEN 68W-80W WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ABOUND. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE ENHANCING MORE
SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN TUE
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN
MON THROUGH TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 27N65W TO 25N69W AND A SECOND TROUGH FROM
23N68W TO 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-
72W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N46W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 28N49W TO
26N51W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N89W TO 12N92W...MOVING W AT
5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE INLAND IN
THE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 27N. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N22W TO 7N21W. ACCORDING TO UPPER-AIR
TIME SECTION ANALYSES FROM DAKAR SENEGAL...THE WAVE CAME OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST EARLY TODAY. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
220 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 1N-17N E OF 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N36W TO 9N38W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 500 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N51W TO 7N51W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE  ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N64W TO 10N64W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY.
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N24W 7N35W TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
8N45W TO 7N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. THE WAVE IS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IS
FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
GULF S OF 28N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 26N81W TO
29N83W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND WITHIN
80 NM OF THE COASTLINE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE W-SW GULF DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE S-SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EAST
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR
IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 17W
BETWEEN 68W-80W WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ABOUND. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE ENHANCING MORE
SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN TUE
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN
MON THROUGH TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 27N65W TO 25N69W AND A SECOND TROUGH FROM
23N68W TO 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-
72W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N46W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 28N49W TO
26N51W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACPN50 PHFO 312345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

REYNES




000
ACPN50 PHFO 312345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

REYNES





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312338
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SATELITES Y LOS DATOS DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE
UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA FORMADO JUNTO A UNA ONDA
TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE
PRONOSTICA QUE LA BAJA PRESION SE MOVERA SOBRE LAS AGUAS AL ESTE DE
LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE TEMPRANO EL LUNES...DONDE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN  SEAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA SU DESARROLLO.
ESTE SISTEMA TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL MIENTRAS SE MUEVA AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH A
TRAVES DEL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS O
TRES DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312338
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SATELITES Y LOS DATOS DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE
UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA FORMADO JUNTO A UNA ONDA
TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE
PRONOSTICA QUE LA BAJA PRESION SE MOVERA SOBRE LAS AGUAS AL ESTE DE
LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE TEMPRANO EL LUNES...DONDE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN  SEAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA SU DESARROLLO.
ESTE SISTEMA TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL MIENTRAS SE MUEVA AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH A
TRAVES DEL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS O
TRES DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312330
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south
of the south-central coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 312330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and surface data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave moving
across the Yucatan Peninsula. The low is forecast to move over the
waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche early Monday, where
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development.  This system has the potential to become a tropical
depression while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph across
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next two to three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 312330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and surface data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave moving
across the Yucatan Peninsula. The low is forecast to move over the
waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche early Monday, where
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development.  This system has the potential to become a tropical
depression while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph across
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next two to three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312330
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south
of the south-central coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 110W-11W FROM 08N TO 21N
MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N74.5W TO 13N97.5W TO
10N124W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 210 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 92W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31.5N138W...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER.
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
42N150W AND EXTENDED A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN
INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY MONDAY EVENING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 110W-11W FROM 08N TO 21N
MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N74.5W TO 13N97.5W TO
10N124W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 210 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 92W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31.5N138W...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER.
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
42N150W AND EXTENDED A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN
INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY MONDAY EVENING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 12N88W...MOVING W AT
10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER BELIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-89W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N34W TO 10N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO 9N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
9N30W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N38W TO 9N46W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE GULF N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND SE
TEXAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 93W-97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-
97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N84W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 24N71W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N61W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO
31N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N71W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 12N88W...MOVING W AT
10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER BELIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-89W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N34W TO 10N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO 9N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
9N30W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N38W TO 9N46W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE GULF N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND SE
TEXAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 93W-97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-
97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N84W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 24N71W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N61W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO
31N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N71W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 12N88W...MOVING W AT
10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER BELIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-89W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N34W TO 10N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO 9N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
9N30W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N38W TO 9N46W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE GULF N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND SE
TEXAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 93W-97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-
97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N84W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 24N71W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N61W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO
31N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N71W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 12N88W...MOVING W AT
10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER BELIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-89W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N34W TO 10N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO 9N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
9N30W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N38W TO 9N46W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE GULF N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND SE
TEXAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 93W-97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-
97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N84W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 24N71W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N61W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO
31N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N71W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 311745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 311745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

REYNES






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311738
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL
SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y BELIZE SE HA TORNADO UN
POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA EN LAS PASADAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA
QUE LA INTERACCION DE TIERRA LIMITE DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO
MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN HOY Y
ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON
CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, has formed near the south-central coast of
Mexico and extends westward for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days while it
moves northwestward around 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, has formed near the south-central coast of
Mexico and extends westward for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days while it
moves northwestward around 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 311730
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize has become a little
better organized over the past few hours.  However, land interaction
is expected to limit significant development while the disturbance
moves across the Yucatan peninsula later today and tonight.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311503
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 110W FROM 08N TO 21N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W TO 09N112W TO
08N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH
EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS SW MONSOON FLOW IS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF FALLING PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INCREASED SW MONSOON FLOW IS HELPING FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INTERACTION OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W HAS HELPED FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N137W. ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY MON.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
41N152W EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W.

THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT
OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W BY TUE MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311503
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 110W FROM 08N TO 21N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W TO 09N112W TO
08N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH
EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS SW MONSOON FLOW IS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF FALLING PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INCREASED SW MONSOON FLOW IS HELPING FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INTERACTION OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W HAS HELPED FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N137W. ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY MON.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
41N152W EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W.

THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT
OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W BY TUE MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311503
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 110W FROM 08N TO 21N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W TO 09N112W TO
08N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH
EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS SW MONSOON FLOW IS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF FALLING PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INCREASED SW MONSOON FLOW IS HELPING FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INTERACTION OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W HAS HELPED FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N137W. ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY MON.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
41N152W EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W.

THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT
OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W BY TUE MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311503
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 110W FROM 08N TO 21N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W TO 09N112W TO
08N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH
EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS SW MONSOON FLOW IS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF FALLING PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INCREASED SW MONSOON FLOW IS HELPING FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INTERACTION OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W HAS HELPED FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N137W. ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY MON.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
41N152W EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W.

THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT
OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W BY TUE MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL



000
ACPN50 PHFO 311155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 311155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311143
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA
CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. LA
INTERACCION DE TIERRA LIMITARA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS EL
DISTURBIO SE MUEVE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN HOY Y ESTA NOCHE.
SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON CONDUCENTES PARA QUE
OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL
SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311143
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA
CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. LA
INTERACCION DE TIERRA LIMITARA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS EL
DISTURBIO SE MUEVE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN HOY Y ESTA NOCHE.
SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON CONDUCENTES PARA QUE
OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL
SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311134
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week within a
few hundred miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible after that time while it
moves slowly northwestward and nears the the southern Baja
California peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311134
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week within a
few hundred miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible after that time while it
moves slowly northwestward and nears the the southern Baja
California peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 311133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




000
ABNT20 KNHC 311133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




000
ABNT20 KNHC 311133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




000
ABNT20 KNHC 311133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




000
AXNT20 KNHC 311121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO
12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W
14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 12N30W TO 9N48W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS
MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
23N...IN GENERAL. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KOPM...KGVX...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT THE NAS WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON...AND IN CRESTVIEW...
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
91W WITH TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 18N91W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
89W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO A 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N5W
MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 31N17W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N25W TO 24N40W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD
FRONT REACHES 32N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N48W TO 31N56W AND 31N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 30N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 28N62W...BEYOND 30N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO
12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W
14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 12N30W TO 9N48W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS
MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
23N...IN GENERAL. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KOPM...KGVX...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT THE NAS WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON...AND IN CRESTVIEW...
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
91W WITH TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 18N91W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
89W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO A 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N5W
MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 31N17W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N25W TO 24N40W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD
FRONT REACHES 32N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N48W TO 31N56W AND 31N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 30N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 28N62W...BEYOND 30N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO
12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W
14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 12N30W TO 9N48W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS
MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
23N...IN GENERAL. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KOPM...KGVX...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT THE NAS WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON...AND IN CRESTVIEW...
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
91W WITH TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 18N91W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
89W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO A 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N5W
MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 31N17W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N25W TO 24N40W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD
FRONT REACHES 32N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N48W TO 31N56W AND 31N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 30N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 28N62W...BEYOND 30N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO
12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W
14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 12N30W TO 9N48W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS
MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
23N...IN GENERAL. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KOPM...KGVX...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT THE NAS WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON...AND IN CRESTVIEW...
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
91W WITH TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 18N91W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
89W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO A 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N5W
MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 31N17W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N25W TO 24N40W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD
FRONT REACHES 32N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N48W TO 31N56W AND 31N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 30N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 28N62W...BEYOND 30N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310853
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 100W FROM 09N-21N MOVING W 20-25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N87W ALONG 15N92W 14N100W TO
12N111W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N124W TO
11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
9N TO COAST OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-101W AND FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 100W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED
NEAR 31N137W DRIFTING W. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.
HOWEVER...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 FT OR GREATER OVER THE FAR NW
PORTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

A 1025 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH 32N148W CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W TO 21N134W.

ELSEWHERE W OF 100W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH
LEVELS WELL TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310853
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 100W FROM 09N-21N MOVING W 20-25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N87W ALONG 15N92W 14N100W TO
12N111W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N124W TO
11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
9N TO COAST OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-101W AND FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 100W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED
NEAR 31N137W DRIFTING W. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.
HOWEVER...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 FT OR GREATER OVER THE FAR NW
PORTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

A 1025 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH 32N148W CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W TO 21N134W.

ELSEWHERE W OF 100W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH
LEVELS WELL TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
PAW


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 310607
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA
ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. ES
POSIBLE QUE LAS INTERACCIONES DE TIERRA LIMITEN UN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
SON CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 310607
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA
ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. ES
POSIBLE QUE LAS INTERACCIONES DE TIERRA LIMITEN UN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
SON CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
AXNT20 KNHC 310604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N29W TO 15N31W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N32W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W...AND FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N50W 14N49W 10N48W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND
43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N60W 14N62W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO EL
SALVADOR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND FROM WESTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE FROM 25N81W 24N87W 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 21N97W 24N90W 25N83W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE COAST FOR THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KXTH...KCRH...KBVE...KDLP...KGHB...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PALACIOS TEXAS.
LIGHT RAIN IS IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...AND IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE FOUND
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE
IN PERRY FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
90W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21.5N TO 23N
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8
FEET FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. EXPECT ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF
78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO A 24N69W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N69W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N55W 27N62W 24N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N
TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO
HAITI. THIS INCLUDES PRECIPITATION IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ONE REPORT OF SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 310604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N29W TO 15N31W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N32W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W...AND FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N50W 14N49W 10N48W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND
43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N60W 14N62W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO EL
SALVADOR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND FROM WESTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE FROM 25N81W 24N87W 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 21N97W 24N90W 25N83W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE COAST FOR THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KXTH...KCRH...KBVE...KDLP...KGHB...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PALACIOS TEXAS.
LIGHT RAIN IS IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...AND IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE FOUND
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE
IN PERRY FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
90W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21.5N TO 23N
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8
FEET FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. EXPECT ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF
78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO A 24N69W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N69W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N55W 27N62W 24N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N
TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO
HAITI. THIS INCLUDES PRECIPITATION IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ONE REPORT OF SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 310555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 310555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 310555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 310555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ABNT20 KNHC 310546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 310546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 310546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 310546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310530
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310530
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 107W...EXTENDING FROM 08N TO 21N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
THUS OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 12.5N95W TO 12.5N107W
TO 08N123W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N136W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS N OF 27N W
OF 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER
THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 38N130W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 24N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND
120W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 107W...EXTENDING FROM 08N TO 21N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
THUS OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 12.5N95W TO 12.5N107W
TO 08N123W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N136W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS N OF 27N W
OF 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER
THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 38N130W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 24N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND
120W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 107W...EXTENDING FROM 08N TO 21N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
THUS OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 12.5N95W TO 12.5N107W
TO 08N123W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N136W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS N OF 27N W
OF 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER
THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 38N130W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 24N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND
120W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 107W...EXTENDING FROM 08N TO 21N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
THUS OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 12.5N95W TO 12.5N107W
TO 08N123W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N136W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS N OF 27N W
OF 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER
THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 38N130W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 24N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND
120W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302350
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. ES POSIBLE QUE LAS
INTERACCIONES DE TIERRA LIMITEN UN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS
EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO Y EL
DOMINGO EN LA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON
CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302350
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. ES POSIBLE QUE LAS
INTERACCIONES DE TIERRA LIMITEN UN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS
EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO Y EL
DOMINGO EN LA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON
CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 20N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT BETWEEN
23W-34W AND MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS
IMAGERY FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N47W TO 18N45W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD FIELD NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF
14N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN
41W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 19N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT
BETWEEN 50W-60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 22N85W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WAVE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN...IT
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION NEAR 20N74W TO SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR 16N89W. MOST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
81W-87W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-
22N BETWEEN 78W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
09N32W TO A 1012 LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N43W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN
34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N90W AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO BASE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N101W.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY... AND ALABAMA THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-
91W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF 27N82W.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE SW GULF WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY
IMPACT BEING INCREASED CONVECTION AND SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 25N69W SW TO OVER EASTERN CUBA TO 17N85W THAT
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CONCENTRATION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS FOCUSED W OF 75W AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-223N BETWEEN 78W-90W...INCLUDING COASTAL
CUBA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION...AND JAMAICA. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 60W OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER
EXHIBITS RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...LOW-LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN
60W-70W...AND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-
66W THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF 70W
WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...AND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGER TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLAND...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NW OF THE ISLAND. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
REMAINING IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD WITHIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS W OF 70W OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE NE FLOW IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W AND SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N69W. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N...A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 32N72W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN
50W-66W. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING NEAR 25N68W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-27N
BETWEEN 60W-72W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N25W TO A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N43W TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE
RIDGING...HOWEVER A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT DOES DIP INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING SW TO 29N39W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 20N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT BETWEEN
23W-34W AND MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS
IMAGERY FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N47W TO 18N45W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD FIELD NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF
14N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN
41W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 19N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT
BETWEEN 50W-60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 22N85W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WAVE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN...IT
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION NEAR 20N74W TO SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR 16N89W. MOST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
81W-87W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-
22N BETWEEN 78W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
09N32W TO A 1012 LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N43W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN
34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N90W AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO BASE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N101W.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY... AND ALABAMA THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-
91W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF 27N82W.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE SW GULF WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY
IMPACT BEING INCREASED CONVECTION AND SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 25N69W SW TO OVER EASTERN CUBA TO 17N85W THAT
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CONCENTRATION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS FOCUSED W OF 75W AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-223N BETWEEN 78W-90W...INCLUDING COASTAL
CUBA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION...AND JAMAICA. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 60W OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER
EXHIBITS RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...LOW-LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN
60W-70W...AND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-
66W THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF 70W
WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...AND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGER TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLAND...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NW OF THE ISLAND. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
REMAINING IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD WITHIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS W OF 70W OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE NE FLOW IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W AND SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N69W. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N...A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 32N72W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN
50W-66W. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING NEAR 25N68W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-27N
BETWEEN 60W-72W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N25W TO A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N43W TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE
RIDGING...HOWEVER A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT DOES DIP INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING SW TO 29N39W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 302340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$




000
ACPN50 PHFO 302340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$





000
ABNT20 KNHC 302320
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will likely limit significant development
while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula Sunday and
Sunday night. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some gradual development once the system moves into
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 302320
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will likely limit significant development
while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula Sunday and
Sunday night. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some gradual development once the system moves into
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302315
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO
106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO
12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210
NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM
SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO
106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO
12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210
NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM
SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO
106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO
12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210
NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM
SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO
106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO
12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210
NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM
SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
21N21W TO 9N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 9N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N54W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
8N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N92W TO E
TEXAS AT 30N95W TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N87W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF
95W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S
OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
AND CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE S BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N55W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N70W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE
CENTER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
21N21W TO 9N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 9N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N54W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
8N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N92W TO E
TEXAS AT 30N95W TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N87W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF
95W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S
OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
AND CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE S BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N55W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N70W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE
CENTER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
21N21W TO 9N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 9N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N54W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
8N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N92W TO E
TEXAS AT 30N95W TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N87W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF
95W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S
OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
AND CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE S BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N55W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N70W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE
CENTER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
21N21W TO 9N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 9N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N54W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
8N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N92W TO E
TEXAS AT 30N95W TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N87W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF
95W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S
OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
AND CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE S BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N55W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N70W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE
CENTER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 301740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301738
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301738
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301738
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301738
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during
the next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during
the next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during
the next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during
the next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kimberlain



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301453
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
17N100W TO 11N101W MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO
09N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N119W TO 08N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N95W...AND ALSO A LINE FROM
09N97W TO 10N110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
180 NM BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI AND THEN PROPAGATED OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

1006 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS POSITIONED NEAR
31N134W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
N OF 28N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT IN
A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1025 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 40N160W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 40N130W
AND THEN CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N126W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW
PORTION OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS. AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE THE SEAS
WHICH ARE NOW 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301453
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
17N100W TO 11N101W MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO
09N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N119W TO 08N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N95W...AND ALSO A LINE FROM
09N97W TO 10N110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
180 NM BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI AND THEN PROPAGATED OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

1006 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS POSITIONED NEAR
31N134W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
N OF 28N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT IN
A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1025 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 40N160W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 40N130W
AND THEN CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N126W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW
PORTION OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS. AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE THE SEAS
WHICH ARE NOW 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301453
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
17N100W TO 11N101W MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO
09N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N119W TO 08N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N95W...AND ALSO A LINE FROM
09N97W TO 10N110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
180 NM BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI AND THEN PROPAGATED OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

1006 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS POSITIONED NEAR
31N134W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
N OF 28N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT IN
A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1025 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 40N160W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 40N130W
AND THEN CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N126W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW
PORTION OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS. AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE THE SEAS
WHICH ARE NOW 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301453
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
17N100W TO 11N101W MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO
09N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N119W TO 08N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N95W...AND ALSO A LINE FROM
09N97W TO 10N110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
180 NM BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI AND THEN PROPAGATED OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

1006 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS POSITIONED NEAR
31N134W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
N OF 28N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT IN
A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1025 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 40N160W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 40N130W
AND THEN CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N126W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW
PORTION OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS. AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE THE SEAS
WHICH ARE NOW 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301235
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE LOS
VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301235
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE LOS
VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 301155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL














000
ACPN50 PHFO 301155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL













000
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during the
next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during the
next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301116
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301116
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N21W 16N23W 10N24W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W
AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN
43W AND 46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 14N54W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...AND KDLP. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH THUNDER...IS BEING OBSERVED IN BEAUMONT TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER GULF SHORES ALABAMA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES TO 3 MILES
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE IN
FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
CURRENTLY IS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N81W TO 11N82W MOVING W 20 KT.
S OF 18N W OF 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AN
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N21W 16N23W 10N24W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W
AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN
43W AND 46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 14N54W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...AND KDLP. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH THUNDER...IS BEING OBSERVED IN BEAUMONT TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER GULF SHORES ALABAMA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES TO 3 MILES
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE IN
FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
CURRENTLY IS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N81W TO 11N82W MOVING W 20 KT.
S OF 18N W OF 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AN
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N21W 16N23W 10N24W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W
AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN
43W AND 46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 14N54W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...AND KDLP. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH THUNDER...IS BEING OBSERVED IN BEAUMONT TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER GULF SHORES ALABAMA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES TO 3 MILES
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE IN
FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
CURRENTLY IS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N81W TO 11N82W MOVING W 20 KT.
S OF 18N W OF 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AN
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N21W 16N23W 10N24W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W
AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN
43W AND 46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 14N54W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...AND KDLP. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH THUNDER...IS BEING OBSERVED IN BEAUMONT TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER GULF SHORES ALABAMA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES TO 3 MILES
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE IN
FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
CURRENTLY IS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N81W TO 11N82W MOVING W 20 KT.
S OF 18N W OF 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AN
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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