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000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020657
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...SOUDELOR NOW A TYPHOON AS IT APPROACHES TINIAN AND SAIPAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 146.6E
THIS IS LOCATED ABOUT

 60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
 70 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
105 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
155 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SOUDELOR WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.6 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN AND
TINIAN THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED T0 75 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020657
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...SOUDELOR NOW A TYPHOON AS IT APPROACHES TINIAN AND SAIPAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 146.6E
THIS IS LOCATED ABOUT

 60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
 70 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
105 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
155 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SOUDELOR WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.6 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN AND
TINIAN THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED T0 75 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020657
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...SOUDELOR NOW A TYPHOON AS IT APPROACHES TINIAN AND SAIPAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 146.6E
THIS IS LOCATED ABOUT

 60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
 70 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
105 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
155 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SOUDELOR WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.6 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN AND
TINIAN THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED T0 75 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
28W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN NO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N
TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
59W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND DRY AIR AHEAD
OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVER THE
ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS NEAR
85W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
16N16W TO 11N26W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N40W TO 10N51W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N
TO 18N E OF 18W AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS HAS AN AXIS
EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS THE N-NW GULF. A TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A 1011
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW W-SW TO 27N90W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. WITH THE
BASE OF THE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO THE NE BASIN...DIFFLUENCE IS BEING GENERATED. THE
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NE
BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 25N E
OF 88W. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85.5W WHERE WINDS ARE
FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT. SEAS IN THIS REGION OF
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS WHERE A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING
GENERATED BY THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW OVER THE
SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN
74W AND 83W. DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN AS
INDICATED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORT NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT.
GALE-FORCE WIND ARE FORECAST IN THIS REGION STARTING 0600
UTC...THIS MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE E BASIN SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 28N W OF 71W. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING
FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
28W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN NO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N
TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
59W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND DRY AIR AHEAD
OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVER THE
ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS NEAR
85W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
16N16W TO 11N26W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N40W TO 10N51W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N
TO 18N E OF 18W AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS HAS AN AXIS
EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS THE N-NW GULF. A TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A 1011
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW W-SW TO 27N90W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. WITH THE
BASE OF THE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO THE NE BASIN...DIFFLUENCE IS BEING GENERATED. THE
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NE
BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 25N E
OF 88W. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85.5W WHERE WINDS ARE
FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT. SEAS IN THIS REGION OF
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS WHERE A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING
GENERATED BY THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW OVER THE
SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN
74W AND 83W. DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN AS
INDICATED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORT NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT.
GALE-FORCE WIND ARE FORECAST IN THIS REGION STARTING 0600
UTC...THIS MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE E BASIN SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 28N W OF 71W. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING
FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO. AT 5 PM HST...GUILLERMO
WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MILES AN HOUR. GUILLERMO ADVISORIES
ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA34
PHFO.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN
HOUR. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN
HOUR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO. AT 5 PM HST...GUILLERMO
WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MILES AN HOUR. GUILLERMO ADVISORIES
ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA34
PHFO.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN
HOUR. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN
HOUR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

REYNES





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020540
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020540
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020540
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020540
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020540
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 020538
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020538
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 020516
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ROTA...TINIAN..SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR TINIAN...AND SAIPAN AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.2
DEGREES EAST OR ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...110
MILES EAST OF TINIAN...140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND 190
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR WAS MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS VERY
CLOSE TO SAIPAN AND TINIAN AS A TYPHOON THIS EVENING. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TINIAN
AND SAIPAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAKE
SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IF SOUDELOR DEVIATES NORTH OF ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 20 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH
MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 FEET OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-021330-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR
HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IMMANENT AND SHOULD OCCUR SOON IF NOT
ALREADY OCCURRING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD END
MONDAY MORNING.

SEAS WILL BUILD REACHING 16 TO 20 FEET OR MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 TO 30 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. A HIGH TIDE WILL
OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION
RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-021330-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
SOUDELOR MAY BRING DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR
PASSES NEAR SAIPAN. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS WILL BUILD...REACHING 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET
IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS
SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 020516
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ROTA...TINIAN..SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR TINIAN...AND SAIPAN AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.2
DEGREES EAST OR ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...110
MILES EAST OF TINIAN...140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND 190
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR WAS MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS VERY
CLOSE TO SAIPAN AND TINIAN AS A TYPHOON THIS EVENING. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TINIAN
AND SAIPAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAKE
SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IF SOUDELOR DEVIATES NORTH OF ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 20 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH
MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 FEET OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-021330-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR
HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IMMANENT AND SHOULD OCCUR SOON IF NOT
ALREADY OCCURRING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD END
MONDAY MORNING.

SEAS WILL BUILD REACHING 16 TO 20 FEET OR MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 TO 30 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. A HIGH TIDE WILL
OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION
RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-021330-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
SOUDELOR MAY BRING DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR
PASSES NEAR SAIPAN. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS WILL BUILD...REACHING 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET
IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS
SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 020516
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ROTA...TINIAN..SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR TINIAN...AND SAIPAN AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.2
DEGREES EAST OR ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...110
MILES EAST OF TINIAN...140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND 190
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR WAS MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS VERY
CLOSE TO SAIPAN AND TINIAN AS A TYPHOON THIS EVENING. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TINIAN
AND SAIPAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAKE
SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IF SOUDELOR DEVIATES NORTH OF ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 20 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH
MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 FEET OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-021330-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR
HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IMMANENT AND SHOULD OCCUR SOON IF NOT
ALREADY OCCURRING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD END
MONDAY MORNING.

SEAS WILL BUILD REACHING 16 TO 20 FEET OR MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 TO 30 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. A HIGH TIDE WILL
OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION
RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-021330-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
SOUDELOR MAY BRING DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR
PASSES NEAR SAIPAN. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS WILL BUILD...REACHING 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET
IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS
SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 020516
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ROTA...TINIAN..SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR TINIAN...AND SAIPAN AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.2
DEGREES EAST OR ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...110
MILES EAST OF TINIAN...140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND 190
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR WAS MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS VERY
CLOSE TO SAIPAN AND TINIAN AS A TYPHOON THIS EVENING. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TINIAN
AND SAIPAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAKE
SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IF SOUDELOR DEVIATES NORTH OF ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 20 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH
MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 FEET OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-021330-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR
HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IMMANENT AND SHOULD OCCUR SOON IF NOT
ALREADY OCCURRING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD END
MONDAY MORNING.

SEAS WILL BUILD REACHING 16 TO 20 FEET OR MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 TO 30 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. A HIGH TIDE WILL
OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION
RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-021330-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
316 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
SOUDELOR MAY BRING DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR
PASSES NEAR SAIPAN. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS WILL BUILD...REACHING 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET
IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS
SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020342
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 147.4E
THIS IS LOCATED ABOUT

115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
120 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
155 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
305 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
195 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.4 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN AND
TINIAN THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED T0 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TYPHOON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND 60 MILES IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020342
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 147.4E
THIS IS LOCATED ABOUT

115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
120 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
155 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
305 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
195 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.4 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN AND
TINIAN THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED T0 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TYPHOON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND 60 MILES IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020342
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 147.4E
THIS IS LOCATED ABOUT

115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
120 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
155 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
305 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
195 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.4 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN AND
TINIAN THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED T0 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TYPHOON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND 60 MILES IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPA34 PHFO 020243
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 141.0W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.0 WEST. GUILLERMO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE FORWARD MOTION GRADUALLY DECREASES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS TRAVELING AHEAD OF GUILLERMO WILL BUILD OVER
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURF WILL STEADILY BUILD
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES AND WILL BECOME LARGE AND LIFE THREATENING
ON MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE






000
WTPA34 PHFO 020243
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 141.0W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.0 WEST. GUILLERMO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE FORWARD MOTION GRADUALLY DECREASES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS TRAVELING AHEAD OF GUILLERMO WILL BUILD OVER
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURF WILL STEADILY BUILD
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES AND WILL BECOME LARGE AND LIFE THREATENING
ON MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE






000
WTPA24 PHFO 020243
TCMCP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 142.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  85NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 95NE  75SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 85NE  65SE  55SW  75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 153.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 157.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 141.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA24 PHFO 020243
TCMCP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 142.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  85NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 95NE  75SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 85NE  65SE  55SW  75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 153.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 157.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 141.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA24 PHFO 020243
TCMCP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 142.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  85NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 95NE  75SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 85NE  65SE  55SW  75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 153.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 157.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 141.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA24 PHFO 020243
TCMCP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 142.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  85NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 95NE  75SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 85NE  65SE  55SW  75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 153.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 157.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 141.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA24 PHFO 020243
TCMCP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 142.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  85NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 95NE  75SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 85NE  65SE  55SW  75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 153.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 157.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 141.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA34 PHFO 020243
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 141.0W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.0 WEST. GUILLERMO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE FORWARD MOTION GRADUALLY DECREASES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS TRAVELING AHEAD OF GUILLERMO WILL BUILD OVER
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURF WILL STEADILY BUILD
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES AND WILL BECOME LARGE AND LIFE THREATENING
ON MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA24 PHFO 020243
TCMCP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 142.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  85NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 95NE  75SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 85NE  65SE  55SW  75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 153.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 157.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 141.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA34 PHFO 020243
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 141.0W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.0 WEST. GUILLERMO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE FORWARD MOTION GRADUALLY DECREASES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS TRAVELING AHEAD OF GUILLERMO WILL BUILD OVER
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURF WILL STEADILY BUILD
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES AND WILL BECOME LARGE AND LIFE THREATENING
ON MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA24 PHFO 020243
TCMCP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 141.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 142.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  85NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 95NE  75SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 85NE  65SE  55SW  75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 153.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 157.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 141.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE








000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 180 NM E
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IN OUTER BANDS WAS NOTED FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 133W
AND 137W. AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO  PLEASE REFER TO MARINE
ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HFOTCMCP4/WTPA24 PHFO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 110W FROM 07N-16N
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO
11N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE DEFINED NE TO
SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180NM-240 NM ACROSS THE
AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS... AND CONTINUE W
WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N83W TO 06N95W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 06N95W TO 09N110W TO 05N125W TO 07N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 111W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 129W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N128W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR NW 15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO NEAR THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95W-120W
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AND TUE. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM
PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL
SWELLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF 15-20 KT NLY
DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT EARLY ON SUN.

$$
COBB


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1100 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CHST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 147.9E
THIS IS LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
155 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
185 MILES EAST OF ROTA
325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM CHST...0100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.9 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 13 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN
THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 75 MILES IN
THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1100 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CHST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 147.9E
THIS IS LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
155 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
185 MILES EAST OF ROTA
325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM CHST...0100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.9 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 13 MPH. SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN
THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 75 MILES IN
THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 020047
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 020047
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020046
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Hurricane Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.  Subsequent advisories will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020046
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Hurricane Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.  Subsequent advisories will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020046
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Hurricane Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.  Subsequent advisories will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020046
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Hurricane Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.  Subsequent advisories will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020046
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Hurricane Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.  Subsequent advisories will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020046
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Hurricane Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.  Subsequent advisories will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020045
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020045
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
AXNT20 KNHC 012354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
STARTING AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
76W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 08N27W TO
18N26W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SHARP INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN
25W AND 29W. THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE POLEWARD SURGE IS
NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W.

A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 10N56W TO
22N58W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH FROM 55W TO
63W WITH SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWING A POLEWARD SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
19N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 08N84W TO
17N84W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES TO 12N25W...THEN RESUMES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N28W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO
08N52W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 38W AND 52W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TX HAS AN AXIS
THAT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE US
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N85W AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF...TO A DISSIPATING 1013 MB LOW NEAR 28N94W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW TO NEAR THE TX/MEXICO BORDER NEAR
26N97W. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE EASTERNMOST LOW AND
THE FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN
THE FL W COAST AND 91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. E TO NE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE FRONTS. SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
WITHIN 125 NM S OF THE FRONTS. SE TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE
S OF 24 N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOWS
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN TACT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER GUATEMALA AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GALE-FORCE WINDS
STARTING AT 0600 UTC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE EASTERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N
FL AND OVER THE W ATLC TO NEAR 78W. HIGH DEEP LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH THE DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N W OF
78W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO
24N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N
TO 28N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N52W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC.
PLEASE SEE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE W OF 72W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
STARTING AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
76W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 08N27W TO
18N26W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SHARP INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN
25W AND 29W. THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE POLEWARD SURGE IS
NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W.

A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 10N56W TO
22N58W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH FROM 55W TO
63W WITH SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWING A POLEWARD SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
19N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 08N84W TO
17N84W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES TO 12N25W...THEN RESUMES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N28W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO
08N52W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 38W AND 52W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TX HAS AN AXIS
THAT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE US
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N85W AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF...TO A DISSIPATING 1013 MB LOW NEAR 28N94W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW TO NEAR THE TX/MEXICO BORDER NEAR
26N97W. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE EASTERNMOST LOW AND
THE FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN
THE FL W COAST AND 91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. E TO NE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE FRONTS. SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
WITHIN 125 NM S OF THE FRONTS. SE TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE
S OF 24 N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOWS
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN TACT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER GUATEMALA AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GALE-FORCE WINDS
STARTING AT 0600 UTC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE EASTERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N
FL AND OVER THE W ATLC TO NEAR 78W. HIGH DEEP LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH THE DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N W OF
78W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO
24N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N
TO 28N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N52W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC.
PLEASE SEE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE W OF 72W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
STARTING AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
76W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 08N27W TO
18N26W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SHARP INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN
25W AND 29W. THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE POLEWARD SURGE IS
NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W.

A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 10N56W TO
22N58W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH FROM 55W TO
63W WITH SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWING A POLEWARD SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
19N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 08N84W TO
17N84W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES TO 12N25W...THEN RESUMES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N28W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO
08N52W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 38W AND 52W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TX HAS AN AXIS
THAT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE US
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N85W AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF...TO A DISSIPATING 1013 MB LOW NEAR 28N94W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW TO NEAR THE TX/MEXICO BORDER NEAR
26N97W. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE EASTERNMOST LOW AND
THE FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN
THE FL W COAST AND 91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. E TO NE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE FRONTS. SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
WITHIN 125 NM S OF THE FRONTS. SE TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE
S OF 24 N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOWS
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN TACT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER GUATEMALA AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GALE-FORCE WINDS
STARTING AT 0600 UTC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE EASTERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N
FL AND OVER THE W ATLC TO NEAR 78W. HIGH DEEP LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH THE DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N W OF
78W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO
24N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N
TO 28N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N52W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC.
PLEASE SEE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE W OF 72W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
STARTING AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
76W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 08N27W TO
18N26W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SHARP INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN
25W AND 29W. THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE POLEWARD SURGE IS
NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W.

A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 10N56W TO
22N58W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH FROM 55W TO
63W WITH SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWING A POLEWARD SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
19N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 08N84W TO
17N84W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES TO 12N25W...THEN RESUMES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N28W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO
08N52W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 38W AND 52W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TX HAS AN AXIS
THAT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE US
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N85W AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF...TO A DISSIPATING 1013 MB LOW NEAR 28N94W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW TO NEAR THE TX/MEXICO BORDER NEAR
26N97W. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE EASTERNMOST LOW AND
THE FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN
THE FL W COAST AND 91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. E TO NE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE FRONTS. SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
WITHIN 125 NM S OF THE FRONTS. SE TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE
S OF 24 N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOWS
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN TACT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER GUATEMALA AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GALE-FORCE WINDS
STARTING AT 0600 UTC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE EASTERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N
FL AND OVER THE W ATLC TO NEAR 78W. HIGH DEEP LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH THE DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N W OF
78W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO
24N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N
TO 28N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N52W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC.
PLEASE SEE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE W OF 72W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
ACPN50 PHFO 012352
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII WILL
BEGIN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO WHICH JUST RECENTLY
CROSSED 140 WEST LONGITUDE INTO THE CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MILES AN HOUR. UPCOMING
GUILLERMO ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA34 PHFO.

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA REMAIN DISORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO... HAWAII.
IT WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CENTER HAVE RECENTLY DISSIPATED. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

FUJII






000
ACPN50 PHFO 012352
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII WILL
BEGIN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO WHICH JUST RECENTLY
CROSSED 140 WEST LONGITUDE INTO THE CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MILES AN HOUR. UPCOMING
GUILLERMO ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA34 PHFO.

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA REMAIN DISORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO... HAWAII.
IT WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CENTER HAVE RECENTLY DISSIPATED. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

FUJII





000
WTPQ81 PGUM 012322
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ROTA...TINIAN..SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN...SAIPAN AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4N...LONGITUDE 149.1E...OR ABOUT
230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. THIS WAS ABOUT 320 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS VERY
CLOSE TO SAIPAN AS A TYPHOON THIS EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE
LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAKE
SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IF SOUDELOR DEVIATES NORTH OF ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 20 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH
MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 FEET OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-020900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SECURE LIGHT
OUTSIDE STRUCTURES SUCH AS CANOPIES AND BRING OUTDOOR FURNITURE
INSIDE. IF STAYING IN A HOME...TURN THE REFRIGERATOR TO MAXIMUM
COLD AND KEEP IT CLOSED. TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS AND UNPLUG SMALL
APPLIANCES. FILL THE BATHTUB WITH WATER IN CASE THE TAP WATER
BECOMES UNAVAILABLE AFTER THE STORM. MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO
COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME
IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS LATE THIS EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 105 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD END BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD LATE TODAY...REACHING 16 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 FEET
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO
SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 TO 30 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. A HIGH TIDE WILL
OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION
RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-020900-
/O.UPG.PGUM.TR.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PGUM.TR.W.0007.150801T2322Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

BE PREPARED TO PUT YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO
ACTION. SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND DAMAGING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS. MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS WELL AS FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS

&&

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUDELOR MAY BRING DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE THIS EVENING THROUGH AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR
PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 12 TO 15 FEET OR MORE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 14 TO 20 FEET
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO
SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS
SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION
OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

$$

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 012322
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ROTA...TINIAN..SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN...SAIPAN AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4N...LONGITUDE 149.1E...OR ABOUT
230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. THIS WAS ABOUT 320 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS VERY
CLOSE TO SAIPAN AS A TYPHOON THIS EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE
LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAKE
SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IF SOUDELOR DEVIATES NORTH OF ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 20 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH
MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 FEET OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-020900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SECURE LIGHT
OUTSIDE STRUCTURES SUCH AS CANOPIES AND BRING OUTDOOR FURNITURE
INSIDE. IF STAYING IN A HOME...TURN THE REFRIGERATOR TO MAXIMUM
COLD AND KEEP IT CLOSED. TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS AND UNPLUG SMALL
APPLIANCES. FILL THE BATHTUB WITH WATER IN CASE THE TAP WATER
BECOMES UNAVAILABLE AFTER THE STORM. MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO
COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME
IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS LATE THIS EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 105 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD END BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD LATE TODAY...REACHING 16 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 FEET
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO
SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 TO 30 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. A HIGH TIDE WILL
OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION
RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-020900-
/O.UPG.PGUM.TR.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PGUM.TR.W.0007.150801T2322Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

BE PREPARED TO PUT YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO
ACTION. SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND DAMAGING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS. MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS WELL AS FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS

&&

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUDELOR MAY BRING DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE THIS EVENING THROUGH AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR
PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 12 TO 15 FEET OR MORE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 14 TO 20 FEET
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO
SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS
SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION
OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

$$

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 012322
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ROTA...TINIAN..SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN...SAIPAN AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4N...LONGITUDE 149.1E...OR ABOUT
230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. THIS WAS ABOUT 320 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS VERY
CLOSE TO SAIPAN AS A TYPHOON THIS EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE
LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAKE
SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IF SOUDELOR DEVIATES NORTH OF ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 20 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH
MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 FEET OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-020900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SECURE LIGHT
OUTSIDE STRUCTURES SUCH AS CANOPIES AND BRING OUTDOOR FURNITURE
INSIDE. IF STAYING IN A HOME...TURN THE REFRIGERATOR TO MAXIMUM
COLD AND KEEP IT CLOSED. TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS AND UNPLUG SMALL
APPLIANCES. FILL THE BATHTUB WITH WATER IN CASE THE TAP WATER
BECOMES UNAVAILABLE AFTER THE STORM. MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO
COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME
IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS LATE THIS EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 105 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD END BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD LATE TODAY...REACHING 16 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 FEET
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO
SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 TO 30 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. A HIGH TIDE WILL
OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION
RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-020900-
/O.UPG.PGUM.TR.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PGUM.TR.W.0007.150801T2322Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

BE PREPARED TO PUT YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO
ACTION. SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND DAMAGING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS. MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS WELL AS FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS

&&

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUDELOR MAY BRING DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE THIS EVENING THROUGH AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR
PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 12 TO 15 FEET OR MORE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 14 TO 20 FEET
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO
SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS
SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION
OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

$$

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 012322
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ROTA...TINIAN..SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN...SAIPAN AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4N...LONGITUDE 149.1E...OR ABOUT
230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. THIS WAS ABOUT 320 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS VERY
CLOSE TO SAIPAN AS A TYPHOON THIS EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE
LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAKE
SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IF SOUDELOR DEVIATES NORTH OF ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 20 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH
MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 FEET OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-020900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SECURE LIGHT
OUTSIDE STRUCTURES SUCH AS CANOPIES AND BRING OUTDOOR FURNITURE
INSIDE. IF STAYING IN A HOME...TURN THE REFRIGERATOR TO MAXIMUM
COLD AND KEEP IT CLOSED. TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS AND UNPLUG SMALL
APPLIANCES. FILL THE BATHTUB WITH WATER IN CASE THE TAP WATER
BECOMES UNAVAILABLE AFTER THE STORM. MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO
COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME
IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS LATE THIS EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 105 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD END BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD LATE TODAY...REACHING 16 FEET OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 FEET
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO
SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 TO 30 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. A HIGH TIDE WILL
OCCUR AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION
RISK.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-020900-
/O.UPG.PGUM.TR.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PGUM.TR.W.0007.150801T2322Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
922 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

BE PREPARED TO PUT YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO
ACTION. SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND DAMAGING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS. MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS WELL AS FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS

&&

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUDELOR MAY BRING DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE THIS EVENING THROUGH AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR
PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TODAY...REACHING 12 TO 15 FEET OR MORE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 14 TO 20 FEET
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO
SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS
SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION
OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUNDATION RISK.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

$$

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012140
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 2100 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS NEAR
13.8N 140.1W OR ABOUT 930 NM..1725 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII.
GUILLERMO IS MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 970 MB ALONG WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN
HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURES HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.
CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM
N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 120
NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN OUTER BANDS FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 133W AND 137W. HURRICANE GUILLERMO HAS PASSED WEST OF
140W AND THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER HFOTCMCP4/WTPA34 PHFO FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 110W FROM 07N-16N
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO
11N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE DEFINED NE TO
SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180NM-240 NM ACROSS THE
AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS... AND CONTINUE W
WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N83W TO 06N95W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 06N95W TO 07N110W TO 05N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 133W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 102W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N127W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW
15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS OF 5-7 FT...GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W-
130W TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AND TUE. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM
PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL
SWELLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF 15-20 KT NLY
DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT EARLY ON SUN.

$$
COBB



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 012132
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 149.1E

ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.1
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN THIS
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 75 MILES IN
THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 012132
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 149.1E

ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.1
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN THIS
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 75 MILES IN
THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 012132
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 149.1E

ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.1
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN THIS
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 75 MILES IN
THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 012129
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 149.1E

ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.1
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN THIS
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 75 MILES IN
THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 012129
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 149.1E

ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.1
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT VERY CLOSE TO SAIPAN THIS
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 75 MILES IN
THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 012040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 140.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 140.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Guillermo should begin to gradually weaken tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future public advisories will be issued by
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Avila




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 012040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 140.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 140.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Guillermo should begin to gradually weaken tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future public advisories will be issued by
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 012039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 140.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOTCMCP4, WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC...BEGINNING AT 02/0300Z.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 012039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 140.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOTCMCP4, WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC...BEGINNING AT 02/0300Z.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011839
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 149.7E

ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.7
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME
A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011839
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 149.7E

ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.7
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME
A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011839
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 149.7E

ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.7
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME
A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011839
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 149.7E

ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.7
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME
A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...STARTING AROUND 02/0600 UTC...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT
12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 13N
TO 16N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. SCATTERED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS
WITH NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N37W.
THIS LOW CENTER HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED VIA THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM SINCE 29 JULY AT 1800 UTC. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH TIME...AND IT IS BECOMING TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY. THE FORECAST IS FOR IT TO OPEN INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH AT THE END OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W
AND 39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDINESS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO BE COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND
96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W...TO 12N24W...TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 13N37W...TO 11N38W AND 07N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND
31W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 37W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA ALONG 84W/85W TO A
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 29.5N85W TO 28N90W 27N95W...AND INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THE LOW CENTER TO
DISSIPATE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS FROM 27N TO 29.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 26.5N TO 29.5N BETWEEN 82W
IN FLORIDA AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING/DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND THE
COASTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W
AND 96W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N81W ALONG THE COAST OF
CUBA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO ALONG 23N98W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE READ THE SECTION ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN
85W AND 96W...AND THE NEARBY TROPICAL WAVE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N63W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN VENEZUELA ALONG
65W AND PANAMA ALONG 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 77W AND BEYOND 84W IN
COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 19N IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS AT THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N74W
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CEILING COVER
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THANKS TO THE
CURRENT 24N74W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE
ABOUT 75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IN 24 HOURS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA.
HISPANIOLA WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO SEPARATE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS FOR THE SECOND 24-HOUR TIME
INTERVAL. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 100 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
CYCLE. A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY MUCH LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR BERMUDA. HISPANIOLA
WILL FIND ITSELF WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE
INVERTED TROUGH DISSIPATES...AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...TO
EASTERLY...TO NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
SECOND ROUND OF 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N74W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM
20N TO 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N AND CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO IS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO
29N46W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 29N46W TO 25N55W. A TROUGH
CONTINUES AGAIN FROM 25N55W TO 19N63W TO 16N63W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND
66W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 23N33W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS
THIS CIRCULATION CENTER.

A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N50W. SURFACE ANTI-
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
26W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N26W...TO THE HIGH
CENTER...TO 28N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 23N81W AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...STARTING AROUND 02/0600 UTC...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT
12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 13N
TO 16N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. SCATTERED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS
WITH NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N37W.
THIS LOW CENTER HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED VIA THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM SINCE 29 JULY AT 1800 UTC. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH TIME...AND IT IS BECOMING TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY. THE FORECAST IS FOR IT TO OPEN INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH AT THE END OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W
AND 39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDINESS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO BE COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND
96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W...TO 12N24W...TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 13N37W...TO 11N38W AND 07N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND
31W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 37W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA ALONG 84W/85W TO A
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 29.5N85W TO 28N90W 27N95W...AND INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THE LOW CENTER TO
DISSIPATE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS FROM 27N TO 29.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 26.5N TO 29.5N BETWEEN 82W
IN FLORIDA AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING/DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND THE
COASTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W
AND 96W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N81W ALONG THE COAST OF
CUBA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO ALONG 23N98W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE READ THE SECTION ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN
85W AND 96W...AND THE NEARBY TROPICAL WAVE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N63W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN VENEZUELA ALONG
65W AND PANAMA ALONG 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 77W AND BEYOND 84W IN
COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 19N IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS AT THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N74W
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CEILING COVER
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THANKS TO THE
CURRENT 24N74W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE
ABOUT 75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IN 24 HOURS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA.
HISPANIOLA WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO SEPARATE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS FOR THE SECOND 24-HOUR TIME
INTERVAL. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 100 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
CYCLE. A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY MUCH LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR BERMUDA. HISPANIOLA
WILL FIND ITSELF WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE
INVERTED TROUGH DISSIPATES...AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...TO
EASTERLY...TO NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
SECOND ROUND OF 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N74W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM
20N TO 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N AND CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO IS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO
29N46W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 29N46W TO 25N55W. A TROUGH
CONTINUES AGAIN FROM 25N55W TO 19N63W TO 16N63W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND
66W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 23N33W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS
THIS CIRCULATION CENTER.

A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N50W. SURFACE ANTI-
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
26W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N26W...TO THE HIGH
CENTER...TO 28N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 23N81W AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 011752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1135 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140 WEST
LONGITUDE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 810 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED WITHIN THIS AREA BUT
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY PERSIST AND SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HINDER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. IT
WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW HAD REINTENSIFIED THIS MORNING. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

FUJII






000
ACPN50 PHFO 011752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1135 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140 WEST
LONGITUDE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 810 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED WITHIN THIS AREA BUT
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY PERSIST AND SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HINDER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. IT
WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW HAD REINTENSIFIED THIS MORNING. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

FUJII






000
ACPN50 PHFO 011752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1135 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140 WEST
LONGITUDE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 810 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED WITHIN THIS AREA BUT
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY PERSIST AND SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HINDER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. IT
WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW HAD REINTENSIFIED THIS MORNING. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

FUJII






000
ACPN50 PHFO 011752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1135 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140 WEST
LONGITUDE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 810 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED WITHIN THIS AREA BUT
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY PERSIST AND SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HINDER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. IT
WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW HAD REINTENSIFIED THIS MORNING. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

FUJII






000
ABNT20 KNHC 011733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011724
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011724
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011724
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011724
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011724
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS NEAR
13.5N 139.0W OR ABOUT 1145 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO IS
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT WITH A TURN TO THE WNW AND DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRES IS ESTIMATED AT 970 MB ALONG WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN APPARENT EYE
FEATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN IN OUTER BANDS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 134W-136W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N129W. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT NEARS 140W UNDER UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 108W FROM 06N-15N
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 09N-10N. BOTH
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE
DEFINED NE TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180NM-240
NM ACROSS THE AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...
AND CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 09N85W...AND CONTINUES
TO 08N92W TO 09N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES TO 09N108W AND BRIEFLY
ENDS. IT BEGINS AGAIN AT 08N111W TO 06N120W TO 5N127W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
03N BETWEEN 78W-81W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 137W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N-23N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 27N126W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW
15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS OF 5-7 FT...GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W-
130W TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING MON
NIGHT. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF 15-20 KT NLY
DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT EARLY ON SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS NEAR
13.5N 139.0W OR ABOUT 1145 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO IS
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT WITH A TURN TO THE WNW AND DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRES IS ESTIMATED AT 970 MB ALONG WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN APPARENT EYE
FEATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN IN OUTER BANDS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 134W-136W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N129W. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT NEARS 140W UNDER UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 108W FROM 06N-15N
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 09N-10N. BOTH
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE
DEFINED NE TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180NM-240
NM ACROSS THE AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...
AND CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 09N85W...AND CONTINUES
TO 08N92W TO 09N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES TO 09N108W AND BRIEFLY
ENDS. IT BEGINS AGAIN AT 08N111W TO 06N120W TO 5N127W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
03N BETWEEN 78W-81W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 137W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N-23N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 27N126W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW
15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS OF 5-7 FT...GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W-
130W TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING MON
NIGHT. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF 15-20 KT NLY
DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT EARLY ON SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS NEAR
13.5N 139.0W OR ABOUT 1145 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO IS
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT WITH A TURN TO THE WNW AND DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRES IS ESTIMATED AT 970 MB ALONG WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN APPARENT EYE
FEATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN IN OUTER BANDS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 134W-136W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N129W. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT NEARS 140W UNDER UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 108W FROM 06N-15N
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 09N-10N. BOTH
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE
DEFINED NE TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180NM-240
NM ACROSS THE AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...
AND CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 09N85W...AND CONTINUES
TO 08N92W TO 09N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES TO 09N108W AND BRIEFLY
ENDS. IT BEGINS AGAIN AT 08N111W TO 06N120W TO 5N127W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
03N BETWEEN 78W-81W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 137W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N-23N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 27N126W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW
15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS OF 5-7 FT...GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W-
130W TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING MON
NIGHT. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF 15-20 KT NLY
DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT EARLY ON SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS NEAR
13.5N 139.0W OR ABOUT 1145 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO IS
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT WITH A TURN TO THE WNW AND DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRES IS ESTIMATED AT 970 MB ALONG WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN APPARENT EYE
FEATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN IN OUTER BANDS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 134W-136W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N129W. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT NEARS 140W UNDER UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 108W FROM 06N-15N
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 09N-10N. BOTH
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE
DEFINED NE TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180NM-240
NM ACROSS THE AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...
AND CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 09N85W...AND CONTINUES
TO 08N92W TO 09N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES TO 09N108W AND BRIEFLY
ENDS. IT BEGINS AGAIN AT 08N111W TO 06N120W TO 5N127W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
03N BETWEEN 78W-81W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 137W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N-23N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 27N126W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW
15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS OF 5-7 FT...GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W-
130W TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING MON
NIGHT. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF 15-20 KT NLY
DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT EARLY ON SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011600
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS NEAR
13.5N 139.0W OR ABOUT 1145 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO IS
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT WITH A TURN TO THE WNW AND DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRES IS ESTIMATED AT 970 MB ALONG WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN APPARENT EYE
FEATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN IN OUTER BANDS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 134W-136W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N129W. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT NEAR 140W UNDER UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 108W FROM 06N-
15N...MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 09N-10N. BOTH
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE
DEFINED NE TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180-240 NM
ACROSS THE AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...AND CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...AND EXTENDS  NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            A
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 09N85W...AND CONTINUES TO
08N92W TO 09N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES TO 09N108W AND BRIEFLY ENDS. IT
BEGINS AGAIN AT 08N111W TO 06N120W TO 5N127W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N
BETWEEN 78W-AND 81W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 137W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17-23N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 27N126W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW
15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS OF 5-7 FT...GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95-
130W TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE
EXPECETD TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING MON
NIGHT. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT 15-20 KT DRAINAGE WITH SEAS OF 5-8
FT ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011600
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS NEAR
13.5N 139.0W OR ABOUT 1145 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO IS
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT WITH A TURN TO THE WNW AND DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRES IS ESTIMATED AT 970 MB ALONG WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN APPARENT EYE
FEATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN IN OUTER BANDS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 134W-136W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N129W. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT NEAR 140W UNDER UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 108W FROM 06N-
15N...MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 09N-10N. BOTH
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE
DEFINED NE TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180-240 NM
ACROSS THE AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...AND CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...AND EXTENDS  NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            A
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 09N85W...AND CONTINUES TO
08N92W TO 09N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES TO 09N108W AND BRIEFLY ENDS. IT
BEGINS AGAIN AT 08N111W TO 06N120W TO 5N127W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N
BETWEEN 78W-AND 81W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 137W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17-23N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 27N126W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW
15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS OF 5-7 FT...GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95-
130W TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE
EXPECETD TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING MON
NIGHT. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT 15-20 KT DRAINAGE WITH SEAS OF 5-8
FT ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011600
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS NEAR
13.5N 139.0W OR ABOUT 1145 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO IS
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT WITH A TURN TO THE WNW AND DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRES IS ESTIMATED AT 970 MB ALONG WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN APPARENT EYE
FEATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN IN OUTER BANDS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 134W-136W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N129W. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT NEAR 140W UNDER UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 108W FROM 06N-
15N...MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 09N-10N. BOTH
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE
DEFINED NE TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180-240 NM
ACROSS THE AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...AND CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...AND EXTENDS  NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            A
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 09N85W...AND CONTINUES TO
08N92W TO 09N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES TO 09N108W AND BRIEFLY ENDS. IT
BEGINS AGAIN AT 08N111W TO 06N120W TO 5N127W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N
BETWEEN 78W-AND 81W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 137W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17-23N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 27N126W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW
15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS OF 5-7 FT...GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95-
130W TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE
EXPECETD TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING MON
NIGHT. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT 15-20 KT DRAINAGE WITH SEAS OF 5-8
FT ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011500
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 150.1E

ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 305 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.1
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011500
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 150.1E

ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 305 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.1
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011436
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Six tropical cyclones formed in the eastern North Pacific basin in
July.  Four of those cyclones reached tropical storm strength in
the basin, while a fifth (Ela) became a tropical storm in the
central North Pacific basin.  The sixth cyclone (Tropical Depression
Eight-E) did not reach tropical storm strength.  Dolores and
Guillermo reached hurricane strength, with Dolores also becoming a
major hurricane.

The numbers of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes that
formed in the eastern North Pacific basin in July were normal.
Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), three or four named storms
typically form in the basin in July, with two becoming hurricanes
and one reaching major hurricane strength.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin so far in 2015 has been above normal.  The ACE
through the end of July is about 200 percent of the 1981-2010
median value to date.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
TS  Ela**            8-10 Jul           40
MH  Dolores         11-19 Jul          130
TS  Enrique         12-18 Jul           50
TS  Felicia         23-25 Jul           40
TD  Eight-E         27-30 Jul           35
H   Guillermo    30 Jul-               105
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
** Tropical Storm Ela began in the eastern North Pacific basin as
Tropical Depression Four-E and reached tropical storm status after
moving into the central North Pacific basin.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011436
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Six tropical cyclones formed in the eastern North Pacific basin in
July.  Four of those cyclones reached tropical storm strength in
the basin, while a fifth (Ela) became a tropical storm in the
central North Pacific basin.  The sixth cyclone (Tropical Depression
Eight-E) did not reach tropical storm strength.  Dolores and
Guillermo reached hurricane strength, with Dolores also becoming a
major hurricane.

The numbers of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes that
formed in the eastern North Pacific basin in July were normal.
Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), three or four named storms
typically form in the basin in July, with two becoming hurricanes
and one reaching major hurricane strength.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin so far in 2015 has been above normal.  The ACE
through the end of July is about 200 percent of the 1981-2010
median value to date.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
TS  Ela**            8-10 Jul           40
MH  Dolores         11-19 Jul          130
TS  Enrique         12-18 Jul           50
TS  Felicia         23-25 Jul           40
TD  Eight-E         27-30 Jul           35
H   Guillermo    30 Jul-               105
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
** Tropical Storm Ela began in the eastern North Pacific basin as
Tropical Depression Four-E and reached tropical storm status after
moving into the central North Pacific basin.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 011432
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 138.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 139.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 011432
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 138.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 139.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ34 KNHC 011432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO ON ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 139.0W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 139.0 West. Guillermo
is now moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later
today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts.  No significant change in intensity is expected
today, but a gradual weakening should begin on Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 011432
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 138.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 139.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 011432
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 138.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 139.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ34 KNHC 011432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO ON ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 139.0W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 139.0 West. Guillermo
is now moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later
today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts.  No significant change in intensity is expected
today, but a gradual weakening should begin on Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 011432
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 138.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 139.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 011432
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 138.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 139.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ34 KNHC 011432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO ON ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 139.0W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 139.0 West. Guillermo
is now moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later
today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts.  No significant change in intensity is expected
today, but a gradual weakening should begin on Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 011432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO ON ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 139.0W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 139.0 West. Guillermo
is now moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later
today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts.  No significant change in intensity is expected
today, but a gradual weakening should begin on Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011244
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1100 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 150.8E

ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 345 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 410 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.8
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME
A TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011145
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

One tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Claudette, formed in the
Atlantic basin in July.  Based on a 30-year (1981-2010) climatology,
one named storm typically forms in the Atlantic basin in July, with
a hurricane occurring about once every other year.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storm and hurricanes,
activity in the Atlantic basin so far in 2015 has been near normal.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
National Hurricane Center website at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=atl.

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Ana              8-11 May            60
TS Bill            16-20 Jun            60
TS Claudette       13-14 Jul            50
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011145
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

One tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Claudette, formed in the
Atlantic basin in July.  Based on a 30-year (1981-2010) climatology,
one named storm typically forms in the Atlantic basin in July, with
a hurricane occurring about once every other year.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storm and hurricanes,
activity in the Atlantic basin so far in 2015 has been near normal.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
National Hurricane Center website at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=atl.

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Ana              8-11 May            60
TS Bill            16-20 Jun            60
TS Claudette       13-14 Jul            50
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ACPN50 PHFO 011138
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1245 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 760 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 011138
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1245 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 760 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 011138
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1245 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 760 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 011138
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1245 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 760 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011136
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CERCA DE UN DEBIL AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE CABO VERDE HAN ESTADO DISMINUYENDO. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
NO ESTAN FAVORABLES...Y NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE
ESTE SISTEMA...MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011136
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CERCA DE UN DEBIL AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE CABO VERDE HAN ESTADO DISMINUYENDO. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
NO ESTAN FAVORABLES...Y NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE
ESTE SISTEMA...MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011136
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CERCA DE UN DEBIL AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE CABO VERDE HAN ESTADO DISMINUYENDO. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
NO ESTAN FAVORABLES...Y NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE
ESTE SISTEMA...MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011136
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CERCA DE UN DEBIL AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE CABO VERDE HAN ESTADO DISMINUYENDO. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
NO ESTAN FAVORABLES...Y NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE
ESTE SISTEMA...MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011136
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CERCA DE UN DEBIL AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE CABO VERDE HAN ESTADO DISMINUYENDO. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
NO ESTAN FAVORABLES...Y NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE
ESTE SISTEMA...MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011132
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms near a weak area of low pressure located
well to the west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands have been
diminishing.  Environmental conditions are not favorable, and
development of this system is not expected while it moves westward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011121
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011121
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011121
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011121
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT
ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND
26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
53W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF
IT. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
COVER THE ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 16N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
14N16W TO 13N30W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W SW TO 08N48W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N48W AND CONTINUES TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR
06N58W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 40W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A 1011 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 29N86W ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 30N85W TO THE LOW TO 28N90W TO 29N95W. A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING
GENERATED BY THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 95W. OVER
THE W BASIN...TWO 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS PREVAILS...ONE
NEAR 26N95W...THE SECOND NEAR 23N94W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE SE GULF WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE FROM THE SW RANGING
FROM 15 KT TO 20 KT. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN
WESTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. EVEN THAT MODERATE MOISTURE
IS OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
CARIBBEAN...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. TRADES OF 15
KT ARE W OF 76W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...NO CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
TODAY AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST START TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AND A DIFFLUENT
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 20N W OF 71W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT
ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND
26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
53W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF
IT. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
COVER THE ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 16N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
14N16W TO 13N30W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W SW TO 08N48W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N48W AND CONTINUES TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR
06N58W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 40W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A 1011 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 29N86W ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 30N85W TO THE LOW TO 28N90W TO 29N95W. A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING
GENERATED BY THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 95W. OVER
THE W BASIN...TWO 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS PREVAILS...ONE
NEAR 26N95W...THE SECOND NEAR 23N94W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE SE GULF WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE FROM THE SW RANGING
FROM 15 KT TO 20 KT. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN
WESTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. EVEN THAT MODERATE MOISTURE
IS OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
CARIBBEAN...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. TRADES OF 15
KT ARE W OF 76W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...NO CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
TODAY AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST START TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AND A DIFFLUENT
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 20N W OF 71W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT
ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND
26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
53W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF
IT. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
COVER THE ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 16N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
14N16W TO 13N30W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W SW TO 08N48W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N48W AND CONTINUES TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR
06N58W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 40W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A 1011 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 29N86W ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 30N85W TO THE LOW TO 28N90W TO 29N95W. A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING
GENERATED BY THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 95W. OVER
THE W BASIN...TWO 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS PREVAILS...ONE
NEAR 26N95W...THE SECOND NEAR 23N94W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE SE GULF WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE FROM THE SW RANGING
FROM 15 KT TO 20 KT. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN
WESTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. EVEN THAT MODERATE MOISTURE
IS OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
CARIBBEAN...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. TRADES OF 15
KT ARE W OF 76W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...NO CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
TODAY AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST START TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AND A DIFFLUENT
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 20N W OF 71W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT
ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND
26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
53W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF
IT. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
COVER THE ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 16N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
14N16W TO 13N30W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W SW TO 08N48W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N48W AND CONTINUES TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR
06N58W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 40W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A 1011 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 29N86W ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 30N85W TO THE LOW TO 28N90W TO 29N95W. A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING
GENERATED BY THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 95W. OVER
THE W BASIN...TWO 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS PREVAILS...ONE
NEAR 26N95W...THE SECOND NEAR 23N94W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE SE GULF WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE FROM THE SW RANGING
FROM 15 KT TO 20 KT. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN
WESTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. EVEN THAT MODERATE MOISTURE
IS OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
CARIBBEAN...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. TRADES OF 15
KT ARE W OF 76W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...NO CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
TODAY AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST START TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AND A DIFFLUENT
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 20N W OF 71W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011009
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO
ALGUNOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADOS. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...Y NO SE ESPERA
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA...MIENTRAS SE MUEVE
GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011009
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO
ALGUNOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADOS. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...Y NO SE ESPERA
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA...MIENTRAS SE MUEVE
GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011009
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO
ALGUNOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADOS. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...Y NO SE ESPERA
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA...MIENTRAS SE MUEVE
GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011009
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST SABADO 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO
ALGUNOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADOS. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...Y NO SE ESPERA
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA...MIENTRAS SE MUEVE
GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0900 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS NEAR
13.4N 137.4W OR ABOUT 1250 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO WAS
MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT AND IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
ESTIMATED AT 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO
110 KT. DRY AIR HAS ENTRAINED INTO THE W SEMICIRCLE AND
GUILLERMO HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF
CENTER SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WHICH IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 14N132W TO 13N140W. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT TODAY...
THEREAFTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE TODAY THEN A BEGIN TO WEAKEN. REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TWO TROPICAL WAVE S HAVE MERGE INTO A SINGLE WAVE ANALYZED FROM
06-16N ALONG 107W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N LATE SUN AND
CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
07N78W TO 07N80W THEN TURNS NW TO 09N98W WHERE SCATTEROMETER
WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO
10N102W...THEN TURN SW TO 07N132W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.
EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR GUILLERMO AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED TO
THE N OF 02N E OF 81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N90W TO 11N100W AND A LINE FROM
06N110W TO 11N115W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 16-27N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N127W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. ALTHOUGH THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY...THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE STILLS SUGGESTS 20 KT
CONDITIONS. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT EARLY TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95-
130W TODAY AND SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF ONLY 15-20 KT AT
SUNRISE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT RESULTING IN AN AREA
OF 7-8 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE DRAINAGE
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON MON NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT 15-20 KT DRAINAGE WITH SEAS OF 5-8
FT ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0900 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS NEAR
13.4N 137.4W OR ABOUT 1250 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO WAS
MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT AND IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
ESTIMATED AT 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO
110 KT. DRY AIR HAS ENTRAINED INTO THE W SEMICIRCLE AND
GUILLERMO HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF
CENTER SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WHICH IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 14N132W TO 13N140W. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT TODAY...
THEREAFTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE TODAY THEN A BEGIN TO WEAKEN. REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TWO TROPICAL WAVE S HAVE MERGE INTO A SINGLE WAVE ANALYZED FROM
06-16N ALONG 107W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N LATE SUN AND
CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
07N78W TO 07N80W THEN TURNS NW TO 09N98W WHERE SCATTEROMETER
WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO
10N102W...THEN TURN SW TO 07N132W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.
EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR GUILLERMO AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED TO
THE N OF 02N E OF 81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N90W TO 11N100W AND A LINE FROM
06N110W TO 11N115W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 16-27N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N127W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. ALTHOUGH THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY...THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE STILLS SUGGESTS 20 KT
CONDITIONS. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT EARLY TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95-
130W TODAY AND SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF ONLY 15-20 KT AT
SUNRISE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT RESULTING IN AN AREA
OF 7-8 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE DRAINAGE
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON MON NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT 15-20 KT DRAINAGE WITH SEAS OF 5-8
FT ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

$$
NELSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 151.6E

ABOUT 505 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 395 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 430 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. SOUDELOR
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 151.6E

ABOUT 505 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 395 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 430 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. SOUDELOR
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 151.6E

ABOUT 505 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 395 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 430 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. SOUDELOR
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010832
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...GUILLERMO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 137.4W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 137.4 West.  Guillermo
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
direction of motion with a further decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected today and tonight,
with a weakening trend forecast to begin on Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010831
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 137.4W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 137.4W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 136.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.9N 139.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 144.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 145.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.3N 148.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N 151.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N 154.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 137.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010831
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 137.4W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 137.4W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 136.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.9N 139.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 144.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 145.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.3N 148.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N 151.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N 154.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 137.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010645
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 152.3E

ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 16 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010645
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 152.3E

ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 16 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010645
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 152.3E

ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 16 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010645
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 152.3E

ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 16 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010645
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 152.3E

ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 16 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010645
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 152.3E

ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 510 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 16 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS JUST E OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 22W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE
PAST 18 HOURS. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE NO CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 18W AND 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
52W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF
IT. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
COVER THE ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 17N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 15N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W SW TO 08N49W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 08N50W AND CONTINUES TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 07N57W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-14N BETWEEN 32W-39W AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 41W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A 1012 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 29N86W ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 31N86W TO THE LOW TO 28N90W TO 29N95W. A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING
GENERATED BY THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 93W. OVER
THE NW BASIN...A 1015 MB HIGH PREVAILS. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SAME REGION ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE REFERENCED ABOVE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-27N W OF 95W.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SE GULF WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND
LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE
FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 15 KT TO 20 KT. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER
THE N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W
AND 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NEAR 80W...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD
OF ITS AXIS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. EVEN
THAT MODERATE MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. NE TO E WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO 8
FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE W OF 77W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...NO CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SAT
MORNING AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST START TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AND A DIFFLUENT
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 75W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS JUST E OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 22W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE
PAST 18 HOURS. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE NO CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 18W AND 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
52W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF
IT. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
COVER THE ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 17N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 15N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W SW TO 08N49W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 08N50W AND CONTINUES TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 07N57W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-14N BETWEEN 32W-39W AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 41W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A 1012 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 29N86W ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 31N86W TO THE LOW TO 28N90W TO 29N95W. A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING
GENERATED BY THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 93W. OVER
THE NW BASIN...A 1015 MB HIGH PREVAILS. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SAME REGION ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE REFERENCED ABOVE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-27N W OF 95W.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SE GULF WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND
LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE
FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 15 KT TO 20 KT. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER
THE N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W
AND 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NEAR 80W...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD
OF ITS AXIS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. EVEN
THAT MODERATE MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. NE TO E WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO 8
FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE W OF 77W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...NO CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SAT
MORNING AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST START TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AND A DIFFLUENT
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 75W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS JUST E OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 22W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE
PAST 18 HOURS. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE NO CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 18W AND 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
52W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF
IT. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
COVER THE ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 17N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 15N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W SW TO 08N49W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 08N50W AND CONTINUES TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 07N57W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-14N BETWEEN 32W-39W AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 41W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A 1012 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 29N86W ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 31N86W TO THE LOW TO 28N90W TO 29N95W. A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING
GENERATED BY THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 93W. OVER
THE NW BASIN...A 1015 MB HIGH PREVAILS. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SAME REGION ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE REFERENCED ABOVE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-27N W OF 95W.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SE GULF WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND
LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE
FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 15 KT TO 20 KT. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER
THE N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W
AND 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NEAR 80W...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD
OF ITS AXIS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. EVEN
THAT MODERATE MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. NE TO E WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO 8
FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE W OF 77W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...NO CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SAT
MORNING AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST START TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AND A DIFFLUENT
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 75W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACPN50 PHFO 010550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1330 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 010550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1330 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

GIBBS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010521
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 010520
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce a few
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and significant development of this
system is not expected while it moves generally westward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 010520
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce a few
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and significant development of this
system is not expected while it moves generally westward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010409
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 152.6E

ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.6
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 16 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010409
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 152.6E

ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.6
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 16 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010255
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0300 UTC AUG 01....HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS CENTERED NEAR
13.2N 136.1W...OR ABOUT 1160 NM...2150 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 970 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT...WITH GUILLERMO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY POSSIBLY REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS ON
SAT...BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORM HAS BEEN NEARLY STEADY WITH SOME ASYMMETRY NOTED IN
THE CONVECTION. THE INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE NOTED EARLIER HAS
DISAPPEARED. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...IN AN AREA FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN
128W AND 133W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112 FROM 05N TO 13N...MOVING WESTWARD
15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 07N93W TO 09N102W TO 07N110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
90W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 28N125W TO 18N113W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH
ONLY MODERATE TRADES NOTED AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. THE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED W OF 128W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE GUILLERMO. A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO
30 KT WINDS AND SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT EXTEND WELL N OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND
138W.

A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN.
HOWEVER SOME INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH SEAS REMAINING BELOW 8
FT.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N BY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DROPPED TO 15-20 KT WITH
THE AREA OF RESIDUAL SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE HIGH SEAS
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010255
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0300 UTC AUG 01....HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS CENTERED NEAR
13.2N 136.1W...OR ABOUT 1160 NM...2150 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 970 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT...WITH GUILLERMO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY POSSIBLY REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS ON
SAT...BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORM HAS BEEN NEARLY STEADY WITH SOME ASYMMETRY NOTED IN
THE CONVECTION. THE INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE NOTED EARLIER HAS
DISAPPEARED. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...IN AN AREA FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN
128W AND 133W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112 FROM 05N TO 13N...MOVING WESTWARD
15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 07N93W TO 09N102W TO 07N110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
90W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 28N125W TO 18N113W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH
ONLY MODERATE TRADES NOTED AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. THE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED W OF 128W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE GUILLERMO. A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO
30 KT WINDS AND SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT EXTEND WELL N OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND
138W.

A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN.
HOWEVER SOME INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH SEAS REMAINING BELOW 8
FT.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N BY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DROPPED TO 15-20 KT WITH
THE AREA OF RESIDUAL SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE HIGH SEAS
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010255
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0300 UTC AUG 01....HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS CENTERED NEAR
13.2N 136.1W...OR ABOUT 1160 NM...2150 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 970 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT...WITH GUILLERMO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY POSSIBLY REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS ON
SAT...BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORM HAS BEEN NEARLY STEADY WITH SOME ASYMMETRY NOTED IN
THE CONVECTION. THE INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE NOTED EARLIER HAS
DISAPPEARED. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...IN AN AREA FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN
128W AND 133W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112 FROM 05N TO 13N...MOVING WESTWARD
15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 07N93W TO 09N102W TO 07N110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
90W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 28N125W TO 18N113W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH
ONLY MODERATE TRADES NOTED AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. THE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED W OF 128W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE GUILLERMO. A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO
30 KT WINDS AND SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT EXTEND WELL N OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND
138W.

A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN.
HOWEVER SOME INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH SEAS REMAINING BELOW 8
FT.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N BY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DROPPED TO 15-20 KT WITH
THE AREA OF RESIDUAL SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE HIGH SEAS
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010246
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...GUILLERMO MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...NO LONGER STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 136.1W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 136.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue tonight with a gradual decrease in
forward speed on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Guillermo has not strengthened during the past several
hours. However, some strengthening is possible tonight and Saturday.
Weakening is expected to begin on Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Jacobson




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010246
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...GUILLERMO MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...NO LONGER STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 136.1W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 136.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue tonight with a gradual decrease in
forward speed on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Guillermo has not strengthened during the past several
hours. However, some strengthening is possible tonight and Saturday.
Weakening is expected to begin on Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Jacobson



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010245
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 135.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 141.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 143.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.8N 145.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.0N 147.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 153.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 136.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/JACOBSON




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010245
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 135.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 141.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 143.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.8N 145.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.0N 147.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 153.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 136.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/JACOBSON





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010245
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 135.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 141.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 143.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.8N 145.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.0N 147.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 153.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 136.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/JACOBSON





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010245
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 135.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 141.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 143.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.8N 145.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.0N 147.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 153.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 136.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/JACOBSON




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010106
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1100 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 153.3E

ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.


$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010106
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1100 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 153.3E

ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.


$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010106
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1100 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 153.3E

ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.


$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010106
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1100 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 153.3E

ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.


$$

ZIOBRO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 312357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM
10N-19N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W/51W FROM
12N-21N MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N78W TO 10N80W
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY OVER JAMAICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 15N20W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N23W THEN THROUGH
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N34W ALONG 9N42W TO 8N52W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N E OF 24W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 35W-38W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR
SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 LOW OVER W GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
PENSACOLA INTO THE GULF WATERS THEN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
OF LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT
WALTON BEACH ALONG 28N90W TO 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N88W TO 27N95W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 23N EXCEPT N OF THE FRONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 18N94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A
1017 MB HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE
N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N85W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 82W-85W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW E OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE FAR W DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N W OF 77W TO OVER NICARAGUA. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI AND
THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE
THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN WILL
MEANDER WESTWARD. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT
LESSENING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW OVER HISPANIOLA AND N TO BEYOND 32N74W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-29N W OF 78W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N76W TO 32N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N35W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING TO S FLORIDA ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 312357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM
10N-19N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W/51W FROM
12N-21N MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N78W TO 10N80W
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY OVER JAMAICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 15N20W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N23W THEN THROUGH
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N34W ALONG 9N42W TO 8N52W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N E OF 24W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 35W-38W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR
SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 LOW OVER W GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
PENSACOLA INTO THE GULF WATERS THEN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
OF LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT
WALTON BEACH ALONG 28N90W TO 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N88W TO 27N95W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 23N EXCEPT N OF THE FRONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 18N94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A
1017 MB HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE
N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N85W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 82W-85W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW E OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE FAR W DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N W OF 77W TO OVER NICARAGUA. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI AND
THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE
THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN WILL
MEANDER WESTWARD. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT
LESSENING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW OVER HISPANIOLA AND N TO BEYOND 32N74W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-29N W OF 78W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N76W TO 32N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N35W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING TO S FLORIDA ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 312357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM
10N-19N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W/51W FROM
12N-21N MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N78W TO 10N80W
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY OVER JAMAICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 15N20W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N23W THEN THROUGH
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N34W ALONG 9N42W TO 8N52W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N E OF 24W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 35W-38W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR
SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 LOW OVER W GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
PENSACOLA INTO THE GULF WATERS THEN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
OF LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT
WALTON BEACH ALONG 28N90W TO 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N88W TO 27N95W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 23N EXCEPT N OF THE FRONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 18N94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A
1017 MB HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE
N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N85W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 82W-85W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW E OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE FAR W DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N W OF 77W TO OVER NICARAGUA. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI AND
THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE
THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN WILL
MEANDER WESTWARD. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT
LESSENING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW OVER HISPANIOLA AND N TO BEYOND 32N74W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-29N W OF 78W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N76W TO 32N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N35W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING TO S FLORIDA ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 312357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM
10N-19N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W/51W FROM
12N-21N MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N78W TO 10N80W
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY OVER JAMAICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 15N20W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N23W THEN THROUGH
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N34W ALONG 9N42W TO 8N52W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N E OF 24W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 35W-38W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR
SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 LOW OVER W GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
PENSACOLA INTO THE GULF WATERS THEN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
OF LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT
WALTON BEACH ALONG 28N90W TO 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N88W TO 27N95W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 23N EXCEPT N OF THE FRONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 18N94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A
1017 MB HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE
N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N85W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 82W-85W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW E OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE FAR W DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N W OF 77W TO OVER NICARAGUA. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI AND
THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE
THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN WILL
MEANDER WESTWARD. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT
LESSENING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW OVER HISPANIOLA AND N TO BEYOND 32N74W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-29N W OF 78W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N76W TO 32N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N35W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING TO S FLORIDA ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 312357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM
10N-19N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W/51W FROM
12N-21N MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N78W TO 10N80W
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY OVER JAMAICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 15N20W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N23W THEN THROUGH
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N34W ALONG 9N42W TO 8N52W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N E OF 24W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 35W-38W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR
SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 LOW OVER W GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
PENSACOLA INTO THE GULF WATERS THEN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
OF LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT
WALTON BEACH ALONG 28N90W TO 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N88W TO 27N95W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 23N EXCEPT N OF THE FRONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 18N94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A
1017 MB HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE
N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N85W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 82W-85W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW E OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE FAR W DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N W OF 77W TO OVER NICARAGUA. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI AND
THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE
THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN WILL
MEANDER WESTWARD. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT
LESSENING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW OVER HISPANIOLA AND N TO BEYOND 32N74W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-29N W OF 78W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N76W TO 32N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N35W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING TO S FLORIDA ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 312357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM
10N-19N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W/51W FROM
12N-21N MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N78W TO 10N80W
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY OVER JAMAICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 15N20W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N23W THEN THROUGH
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N34W ALONG 9N42W TO 8N52W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N E OF 24W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 35W-38W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR
SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 LOW OVER W GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
PENSACOLA INTO THE GULF WATERS THEN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
OF LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT
WALTON BEACH ALONG 28N90W TO 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N88W TO 27N95W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 23N EXCEPT N OF THE FRONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 18N94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A
1017 MB HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE
N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N85W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 82W-85W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW E OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE FAR W DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N W OF 77W TO OVER NICARAGUA. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI AND
THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE
THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN WILL
MEANDER WESTWARD. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT
LESSENING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW OVER HISPANIOLA AND N TO BEYOND 32N74W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-29N W OF 78W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N76W TO 32N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N35W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING TO S FLORIDA ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ACPN50 PHFO 312353
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1425 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 312353
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1425 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 312353
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1425 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 312353
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1425 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312335
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...Y EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...SI ALGUNO...DEBERA SER MUY LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312335
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...Y EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...SI ALGUNO...DEBERA SER MUY LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312335
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...Y EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...SI ALGUNO...DEBERA SER MUY LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312335
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...Y EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...SI ALGUNO...DEBERA SER MUY LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312335
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...Y EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...SI ALGUNO...DEBERA SER MUY LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312335
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...Y EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...SI ALGUNO...DEBERA SER MUY LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 2100 UTC JUL 31....HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS CENTERED NEAR
12.7N 134.7W...OR ABOUT 1240 NM...2300 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 970 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT...MAKING GUILLERMO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SAT...BEFORE BEGINNING A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE WITH AN EYE APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM IN THE S
SEMICIRCLE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...ABOUT 300 NM IN NE QUADRANT IN AN AREA
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112 FROM 05N TO 13N...MOVING WESTWARD
15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 09N100W TO 06N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 90W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 28N125W TO 18N113W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH
ONLY MODERATE TRADES NOTED AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. THE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED W OF 128W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE GUILLERMO. A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO
30 KT WINDS AND SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT EXTEND WELL N OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND
138W.

A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN.
HOWEVER SOME INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N BY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH AN AREA OF RESIDUAL 8 FOOT SEAS NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N E OF
90W. THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA FOR
THE HIGH SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 2100 UTC JUL 31....HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS CENTERED NEAR
12.7N 134.7W...OR ABOUT 1240 NM...2300 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 970 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT...MAKING GUILLERMO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SAT...BEFORE BEGINNING A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE WITH AN EYE APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM IN THE S
SEMICIRCLE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...ABOUT 300 NM IN NE QUADRANT IN AN AREA
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112 FROM 05N TO 13N...MOVING WESTWARD
15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 09N100W TO 06N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 90W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 28N125W TO 18N113W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH
ONLY MODERATE TRADES NOTED AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. THE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED W OF 128W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE GUILLERMO. A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO
30 KT WINDS AND SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT EXTEND WELL N OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND
138W.

A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN.
HOWEVER SOME INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N BY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH AN AREA OF RESIDUAL 8 FOOT SEAS NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N E OF
90W. THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA FOR
THE HIGH SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 2100 UTC JUL 31....HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS CENTERED NEAR
12.7N 134.7W...OR ABOUT 1240 NM...2300 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 970 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT...MAKING GUILLERMO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SAT...BEFORE BEGINNING A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE WITH AN EYE APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM IN THE S
SEMICIRCLE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...ABOUT 300 NM IN NE QUADRANT IN AN AREA
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112 FROM 05N TO 13N...MOVING WESTWARD
15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 09N100W TO 06N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 90W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 28N125W TO 18N113W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH
ONLY MODERATE TRADES NOTED AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. THE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED W OF 128W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE GUILLERMO. A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO
30 KT WINDS AND SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT EXTEND WELL N OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND
138W.

A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN.
HOWEVER SOME INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N BY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH AN AREA OF RESIDUAL 8 FOOT SEAS NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N E OF
90W. THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA FOR
THE HIGH SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 2100 UTC JUL 31....HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS CENTERED NEAR
12.7N 134.7W...OR ABOUT 1240 NM...2300 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 970 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT...MAKING GUILLERMO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SAT...BEFORE BEGINNING A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE WITH AN EYE APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM IN THE S
SEMICIRCLE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...ABOUT 300 NM IN NE QUADRANT IN AN AREA
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112 FROM 05N TO 13N...MOVING WESTWARD
15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 09N100W TO 06N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 90W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 28N125W TO 18N113W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH
ONLY MODERATE TRADES NOTED AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. THE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED W OF 128W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE GUILLERMO. A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO
30 KT WINDS AND SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT EXTEND WELL N OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND
138W.

A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN.
HOWEVER SOME INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N BY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH AN AREA OF RESIDUAL 8 FOOT SEAS NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N E OF
90W. THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA FOR
THE HIGH SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312111
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 154.3E

ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312111
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 154.3E

ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312111
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 154.3E

ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312111
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 154.3E

ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312111
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 154.3E

ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312111
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 154.3E

ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312111
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 154.3E

ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312111
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STILL HEADED WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 154.3E

ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.3
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 312033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...GUILLERMO STILL RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 105 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 134.8W
ABOUT 1430 MI...2300 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 134.8 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today with a gradual decrease in
forward speed on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Guillermo is forecast to become a major hurricane
tonight or Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 312033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...GUILLERMO STILL RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 105 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 134.8W
ABOUT 1430 MI...2300 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 134.8 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today with a gradual decrease in
forward speed on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Guillermo is forecast to become a major hurricane
tonight or Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 312033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...GUILLERMO STILL RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 105 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 134.8W
ABOUT 1430 MI...2300 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 134.8 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today with a gradual decrease in
forward speed on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Guillermo is forecast to become a major hurricane
tonight or Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 312032
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.8W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.8W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 134.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.3N 137.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.0N 140.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 142.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 144.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 153.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 134.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 312032
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.8W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.8W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 134.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.3N 137.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.0N 140.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 142.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 144.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 153.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 134.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311905
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE Y
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...SI ALGUNO DEBERA SER MUY LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311905
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE Y
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES...EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...SI ALGUNO DEBERA SER MUY LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311850
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
500 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 154.9E

ABOUT 715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 685 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 670 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 625 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.9
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. SOUDELOR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

MCELROY



000
ABNT20 KNHC 311737
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABNT20 KNHC 311737
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABNT20 KNHC 311737
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABNT20 KNHC 311737
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY VERTICAL CROSS SECTION TIME SERIES OVER DAKAR.
THE WAVE NOW EXTENDS FROM 09N20W TO 18N19W...MOVING W AT AN
ESTIMATED 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE S
OF 16 AND COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH FROM 15W TO
21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
16W AND 24W.

A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 19N49W...
MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. A POLEWARD
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 19N75W MOVING W
AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 14N19W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 13N21W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N33W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 08N48W AND EXTENDS TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
09N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM N
AND 250 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N87W TO 29N91W TO 29N95W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N86W TO 27N93W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 87W
AND 97W. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 KT ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND NORTHERN GULF SURFACE
TROUGH. A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N94W HAS AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS E TO THE FL STRAITS THEN E TO THE W ATLC. SW WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT ARE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE NORTHERN GULF SURFACE
TROUGH. SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE HIGH. A CONVECTION
FREE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 18N94W TO
21N92W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE N GULF TONIGHT
AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK NORTH INLAND SATURDAY WHILE THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE N GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. ANOTHER AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND 67W...INCLUDING SAINT LUCIA. ELSEWHERE...A 1016 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N84W AND IS AN EXTENSION OF RIDGING OVER
THE ATLC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS STRONG TRADES OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS A REGION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MOIST AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AND IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE S
CAROLINA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST UPPER TROUGH...IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION N OF 29N. OTHERWISE...THE SUBTROPICAL
N ATLC IS FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W...AND FROM 24N TO 28N
BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N62W AND A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N33W SUPPORT
RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD W OF
75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY VERTICAL CROSS SECTION TIME SERIES OVER DAKAR.
THE WAVE NOW EXTENDS FROM 09N20W TO 18N19W...MOVING W AT AN
ESTIMATED 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE S
OF 16 AND COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH FROM 15W TO
21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
16W AND 24W.

A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 19N49W...
MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. A POLEWARD
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 19N75W MOVING W
AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 14N19W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 13N21W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N33W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 08N48W AND EXTENDS TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
09N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM N
AND 250 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N87W TO 29N91W TO 29N95W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N86W TO 27N93W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 87W
AND 97W. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 KT ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND NORTHERN GULF SURFACE
TROUGH. A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N94W HAS AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS E TO THE FL STRAITS THEN E TO THE W ATLC. SW WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT ARE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE NORTHERN GULF SURFACE
TROUGH. SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE HIGH. A CONVECTION
FREE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 18N94W TO
21N92W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE N GULF TONIGHT
AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK NORTH INLAND SATURDAY WHILE THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE N GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. ANOTHER AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND 67W...INCLUDING SAINT LUCIA. ELSEWHERE...A 1016 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N84W AND IS AN EXTENSION OF RIDGING OVER
THE ATLC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS STRONG TRADES OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS A REGION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MOIST AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AND IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE S
CAROLINA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST UPPER TROUGH...IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION N OF 29N. OTHERWISE...THE SUBTROPICAL
N ATLC IS FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W...AND FROM 24N TO 28N
BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N62W AND A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N33W SUPPORT
RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD W OF
75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY VERTICAL CROSS SECTION TIME SERIES OVER DAKAR.
THE WAVE NOW EXTENDS FROM 09N20W TO 18N19W...MOVING W AT AN
ESTIMATED 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE S
OF 16 AND COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH FROM 15W TO
21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
16W AND 24W.

A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 19N49W...
MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. A POLEWARD
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 19N75W MOVING W
AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 14N19W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 13N21W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N33W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 08N48W AND EXTENDS TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
09N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM N
AND 250 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N87W TO 29N91W TO 29N95W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N86W TO 27N93W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 87W
AND 97W. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 KT ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND NORTHERN GULF SURFACE
TROUGH. A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N94W HAS AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS E TO THE FL STRAITS THEN E TO THE W ATLC. SW WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT ARE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE NORTHERN GULF SURFACE
TROUGH. SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE HIGH. A CONVECTION
FREE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 18N94W TO
21N92W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE N GULF TONIGHT
AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK NORTH INLAND SATURDAY WHILE THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE N GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. ANOTHER AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND 67W...INCLUDING SAINT LUCIA. ELSEWHERE...A 1016 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N84W AND IS AN EXTENSION OF RIDGING OVER
THE ATLC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS STRONG TRADES OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS A REGION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MOIST AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AND IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE S
CAROLINA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST UPPER TROUGH...IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION N OF 29N. OTHERWISE...THE SUBTROPICAL
N ATLC IS FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W...AND FROM 24N TO 28N
BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N62W AND A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N33W SUPPORT
RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD W OF
75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY VERTICAL CROSS SECTION TIME SERIES OVER DAKAR.
THE WAVE NOW EXTENDS FROM 09N20W TO 18N19W...MOVING W AT AN
ESTIMATED 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE S
OF 16 AND COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH FROM 15W TO
21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
16W AND 24W.

A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 19N49W...
MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. A POLEWARD
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 19N75W MOVING W
AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 14N19W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 13N21W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N33W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 08N48W AND EXTENDS TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
09N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM N
AND 250 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N87W TO 29N91W TO 29N95W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N86W TO 27N93W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 87W
AND 97W. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 KT ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND NORTHERN GULF SURFACE
TROUGH. A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N94W HAS AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS E TO THE FL STRAITS THEN E TO THE W ATLC. SW WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT ARE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE NORTHERN GULF SURFACE
TROUGH. SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE HIGH. A CONVECTION
FREE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 18N94W TO
21N92W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE N GULF TONIGHT
AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK NORTH INLAND SATURDAY WHILE THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE N GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. ANOTHER AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND 67W...INCLUDING SAINT LUCIA. ELSEWHERE...A 1016 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N84W AND IS AN EXTENSION OF RIDGING OVER
THE ATLC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS STRONG TRADES OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS A REGION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MOIST AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AND IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE S
CAROLINA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST UPPER TROUGH...IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION N OF 29N. OTHERWISE...THE SUBTROPICAL
N ATLC IS FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W...AND FROM 24N TO 28N
BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N62W AND A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N33W SUPPORT
RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD W OF
75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ACPN50 PHFO 311733
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1565 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ACPN50 PHFO 311733
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1565 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ACPN50 PHFO 311733
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1565 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ACPN50 PHFO 311733
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1565 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ACPN50 PHFO 311733
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1565 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 311733
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED 1565 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE LOW IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC JUL 31....HURRICANE GUILLERMO NEAR 12.4N 132.7W 975
MB...MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80
KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...120
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM E AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER EPAC S OF 16N BETWEEN 120W AND
133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS FOR GUILLERMO ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100
KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. GUILLERMO WILL REMAIN AS A
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO AFTER REACHING 100 KNOTS.
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A FINAL T-NUMBER OF 5.0 WITH AN
EYE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN A 45
NM RADUIS OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS
STRONG ALSO WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 200 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER FROM 09N TO 13N...WITHIN A RADIUS OF 180 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BETWEEN 128W AND 132W...AND WITHIN A
RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER FROM
12N TO 15N. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 128W AND
131W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W/99W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD... MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN
102W AND 110W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
03N TO 07N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N83W TO 08N97W TO 05N110W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 03N80W TO
04N84W TO 05N86W TO 06N89W.  TO 09N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N126W TO 18N110W. SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AS FAR AS 17N FROM 135W WESTWARD. THESE
SEA HEIGHTS ARE RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 8-E. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OF 140W LATER TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 28N125W TONIGHT WITH THE NW
FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-6 FT
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT ON SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N ON SUN.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTS WITH NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8
FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 09N TO 12N FROM 90W EASTWARD. THE WIND
SPEEDS ARE 20 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND
THE WIND SPEEDS DO NOT REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SEA HEIGHTS STAY AT 8
FEET OR SO FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE FALLING TO LESS
THAN 8 FEET.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC JUL 31....HURRICANE GUILLERMO NEAR 12.4N 132.7W 975
MB...MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80
KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...120
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM E AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER EPAC S OF 16N BETWEEN 120W AND
133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS FOR GUILLERMO ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100
KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. GUILLERMO WILL REMAIN AS A
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO AFTER REACHING 100 KNOTS.
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A FINAL T-NUMBER OF 5.0 WITH AN
EYE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN A 45
NM RADUIS OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS
STRONG ALSO WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 200 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER FROM 09N TO 13N...WITHIN A RADIUS OF 180 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BETWEEN 128W AND 132W...AND WITHIN A
RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER FROM
12N TO 15N. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 128W AND
131W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W/99W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD... MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN
102W AND 110W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
03N TO 07N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N83W TO 08N97W TO 05N110W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 03N80W TO
04N84W TO 05N86W TO 06N89W.  TO 09N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N126W TO 18N110W. SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AS FAR AS 17N FROM 135W WESTWARD. THESE
SEA HEIGHTS ARE RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 8-E. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OF 140W LATER TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 28N125W TONIGHT WITH THE NW
FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-6 FT
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT ON SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N ON SUN.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTS WITH NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8
FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 09N TO 12N FROM 90W EASTWARD. THE WIND
SPEEDS ARE 20 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND
THE WIND SPEEDS DO NOT REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SEA HEIGHTS STAY AT 8
FEET OR SO FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE FALLING TO LESS
THAN 8 FEET.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC JUL 31....HURRICANE GUILLERMO NEAR 12.4N 132.7W 975
MB...MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80
KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...120
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM E AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER EPAC S OF 16N BETWEEN 120W AND
133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS FOR GUILLERMO ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100
KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. GUILLERMO WILL REMAIN AS A
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO AFTER REACHING 100 KNOTS.
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A FINAL T-NUMBER OF 5.0 WITH AN
EYE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN A 45
NM RADUIS OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS
STRONG ALSO WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 200 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER FROM 09N TO 13N...WITHIN A RADIUS OF 180 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BETWEEN 128W AND 132W...AND WITHIN A
RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER FROM
12N TO 15N. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 128W AND
131W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W/99W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD... MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN
102W AND 110W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
03N TO 07N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N83W TO 08N97W TO 05N110W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 03N80W TO
04N84W TO 05N86W TO 06N89W.  TO 09N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N126W TO 18N110W. SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AS FAR AS 17N FROM 135W WESTWARD. THESE
SEA HEIGHTS ARE RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 8-E. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OF 140W LATER TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 28N125W TONIGHT WITH THE NW
FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-6 FT
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT ON SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N ON SUN.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTS WITH NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8
FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 09N TO 12N FROM 90W EASTWARD. THE WIND
SPEEDS ARE 20 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND
THE WIND SPEEDS DO NOT REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SEA HEIGHTS STAY AT 8
FEET OR SO FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE FALLING TO LESS
THAN 8 FEET.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC JUL 31....HURRICANE GUILLERMO NEAR 12.4N 132.7W 975
MB...MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80
KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...120
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM E AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER EPAC S OF 16N BETWEEN 120W AND
133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS FOR GUILLERMO ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100
KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. GUILLERMO WILL REMAIN AS A
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO AFTER REACHING 100 KNOTS.
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A FINAL T-NUMBER OF 5.0 WITH AN
EYE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN A 45
NM RADUIS OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS
STRONG ALSO WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 200 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER FROM 09N TO 13N...WITHIN A RADIUS OF 180 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BETWEEN 128W AND 132W...AND WITHIN A
RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER FROM
12N TO 15N. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 128W AND
131W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W/99W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD... MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN
102W AND 110W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
03N TO 07N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N83W TO 08N97W TO 05N110W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 03N80W TO
04N84W TO 05N86W TO 06N89W.  TO 09N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N126W TO 18N110W. SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AS FAR AS 17N FROM 135W WESTWARD. THESE
SEA HEIGHTS ARE RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 8-E. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OF 140W LATER TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 28N125W TONIGHT WITH THE NW
FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-6 FT
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT ON SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N ON SUN.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTS WITH NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8
FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 09N TO 12N FROM 90W EASTWARD. THE WIND
SPEEDS ARE 20 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND
THE WIND SPEEDS DO NOT REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SEA HEIGHTS STAY AT 8
FEET OR SO FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE FALLING TO LESS
THAN 8 FEET.

$$
MT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311537
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
100 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 155.6E

ABOUT 710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 665 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 665 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.6
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311537
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
100 AM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 155.6E

ABOUT 710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 665 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 665 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.6
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 311441
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...GUILLERMO RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 17 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 132.7W
ABOUT 1570 MI...2525 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 132.7 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Guillermo could become a major hurricane
over the weekend.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 311441
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...GUILLERMO RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 17 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 132.7W
ABOUT 1570 MI...2525 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 132.7 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Guillermo could become a major hurricane
over the weekend.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 311441
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 132.7W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 132.7W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 132.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.0N 134.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.6N 137.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 140.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 142.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.3N 145.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N 152.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 132.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311310
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1100 PM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 155.7E

ABOUT 745 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 670 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 735 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.7
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON SATURDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311310
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1100 PM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 155.7E

ABOUT 745 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 670 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 735 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.7
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON SATURDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311146
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE Y
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES, Y EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA, SI ALGUNO, DEBERA SER MUY LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15
MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311146
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA DEBIL AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE Y
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES, Y EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA, SI ALGUNO, DEBERA SER MUY LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15
MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG


000
ACPN50 PHFO 311142
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS
GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 311142
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS
GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 311142
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS
GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 311142
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS
GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 311142
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS
GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 311142
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS
GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS






000
ABNT20 KNHC 311142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABNT20 KNHC 311142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABNT20 KNHC 311142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABNT20 KNHC 311142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311133
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311133
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO 20N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N31W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 19N74W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 74W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
20N16W TO 16N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N31W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 28W-35W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THE RIDGING IS
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF
THE DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SW LOUISIANA. WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOCUSED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N90W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB
HIGHS...ONE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N94W AND THE
OTHER CENTERED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. THE WEAK
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LATE
AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MONDAY.
SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 76W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS EXTEND FARTHER EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING E OF 67W. FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN
REMAINS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N
BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES
HOLD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...
HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 27N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N76W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N60W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
32N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO 20N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N31W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 19N74W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 74W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
20N16W TO 16N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N31W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 28W-35W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THE RIDGING IS
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF
THE DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SW LOUISIANA. WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOCUSED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N90W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB
HIGHS...ONE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N94W AND THE
OTHER CENTERED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. THE WEAK
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LATE
AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MONDAY.
SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 76W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS EXTEND FARTHER EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING E OF 67W. FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN
REMAINS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N
BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES
HOLD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...
HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 27N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N76W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N60W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
32N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO 20N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N31W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 19N74W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 74W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
20N16W TO 16N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N31W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 28W-35W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THE RIDGING IS
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF
THE DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SW LOUISIANA. WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOCUSED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N90W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB
HIGHS...ONE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N94W AND THE
OTHER CENTERED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. THE WEAK
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LATE
AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MONDAY.
SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 76W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS EXTEND FARTHER EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING E OF 67W. FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN
REMAINS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N
BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES
HOLD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...
HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 27N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N76W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N60W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
32N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO 20N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N31W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 19N74W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 74W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
20N16W TO 16N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N31W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 28W-35W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THE RIDGING IS
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF
THE DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SW LOUISIANA. WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOCUSED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N90W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB
HIGHS...ONE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N94W AND THE
OTHER CENTERED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. THE WEAK
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LATE
AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MONDAY.
SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 76W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS EXTEND FARTHER EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING E OF 67W. FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN
REMAINS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N
BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES
HOLD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...
HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 27N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N76W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N60W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
32N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO 20N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N31W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 19N74W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 74W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
20N16W TO 16N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N31W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 28W-35W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THE RIDGING IS
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF
THE DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SW LOUISIANA. WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOCUSED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N90W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB
HIGHS...ONE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N94W AND THE
OTHER CENTERED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. THE WEAK
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LATE
AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MONDAY.
SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 76W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS EXTEND FARTHER EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING E OF 67W. FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN
REMAINS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N
BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES
HOLD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...
HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 27N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N76W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N60W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
32N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO 20N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N31W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 19N74W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 74W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
20N16W TO 16N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N31W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 28W-35W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THE RIDGING IS
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF
THE DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SW LOUISIANA. WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOCUSED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N90W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB
HIGHS...ONE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N94W AND THE
OTHER CENTERED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. THE WEAK
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LATE
AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MONDAY.
SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 76W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS EXTEND FARTHER EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING E OF 67W. FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN
REMAINS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N
BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES
HOLD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...
HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 27N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N76W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N60W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
32N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 310957
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ESTE DISTURBIO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...Y ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES
POSIBLE HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE
MUEVE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUAN EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE Y SE COMBINE
CON UN SISTEMA FRONTAL EL VIERNES...Y UN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO ES
IMPROBABLE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...0
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 310957
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ESTE DISTURBIO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...Y ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES
POSIBLE HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE
MUEVE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUAN EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE Y SE COMBINE
CON UN SISTEMA FRONTAL EL VIERNES...Y UN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO ES
IMPROBABLE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...0
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0900 UTC JUL 31...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS NEAR
11.5N 130.6W OR ABOUT 1575 MI W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1720 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO
WAS MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOME AS RIDGING TO ITS N STRENGTHENS. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. GUILLERMO
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING NOW OBSERVED
IN ALL QUADRANTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION BURSTS
INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N
AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. AN EYE IS APPARENT
INTERMITTENTLY. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEREAFTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH ABOUT 42 HOURS THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N98W TO 16.5N95W AND HAS BEEN
MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE IF A LINE FROM 12N90W TO
16N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 05-14N ALONG ABOUT 110W AND IS
MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED TO THE S OF 10N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW
OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N84W TO 07.5N91.5W THEN TURNS
SLIGHTLY NW TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 08.5N97W...THEN TURNS SW TO
05N114W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR GUILLERMO AND THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF 04N79W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LIEN FROM 03N82W TO 11N88W...AND WITHIN 15 NM OF 04.5N91W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 99-101W AND
FROM 19-22.5N

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 15N105W. A SMALL
AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 136-140W AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8-E WHICH MOVED W OF 140W.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF 140W LATER TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 28N125W TONIGHT WITH THE NW
FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-6 FT
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT ON SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N ON SUN.

GAP WINDS...
EXPECT THE MAXIMUM DRAINAGE TO BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT AT SUNRISE
THIS MORNING AND THEN ONLY EXPECT 15-20 KT DRAINAGE THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. THIS MORNINGS EVENT WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 09N BETWEEN 86-100W THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING THEN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF 6-8 FT
SEAS TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH MORNING.
ALSO EXPECT NORTHERLY 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A SMALL AREA OF 6-8 FT IN AND JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SAT MORNING.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0900 UTC JUL 31...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS NEAR
11.5N 130.6W OR ABOUT 1575 MI W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1720 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO
WAS MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOME AS RIDGING TO ITS N STRENGTHENS. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. GUILLERMO
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING NOW OBSERVED
IN ALL QUADRANTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION BURSTS
INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N
AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. AN EYE IS APPARENT
INTERMITTENTLY. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEREAFTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH ABOUT 42 HOURS THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N98W TO 16.5N95W AND HAS BEEN
MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE IF A LINE FROM 12N90W TO
16N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 05-14N ALONG ABOUT 110W AND IS
MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED TO THE S OF 10N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW
OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N84W TO 07.5N91.5W THEN TURNS
SLIGHTLY NW TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 08.5N97W...THEN TURNS SW TO
05N114W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR GUILLERMO AND THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF 04N79W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LIEN FROM 03N82W TO 11N88W...AND WITHIN 15 NM OF 04.5N91W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 99-101W AND
FROM 19-22.5N

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 15N105W. A SMALL
AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 136-140W AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8-E WHICH MOVED W OF 140W.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF 140W LATER TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 28N125W TONIGHT WITH THE NW
FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-6 FT
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT ON SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING
ALONG 10N ON SUN.

GAP WINDS...
EXPECT THE MAXIMUM DRAINAGE TO BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT AT SUNRISE
THIS MORNING AND THEN ONLY EXPECT 15-20 KT DRAINAGE THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. THIS MORNINGS EVENT WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 09N BETWEEN 86-100W THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING THEN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF 6-8 FT
SEAS TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH MORNING.
ALSO EXPECT NORTHERLY 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A SMALL AREA OF 6-8 FT IN AND JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SAT MORNING.

$$
NELSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310918
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 PM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...SAIPAN
AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 156.0E

ABOUT 760 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 755 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.0
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310918
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 PM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...SAIPAN
AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 156.0E

ABOUT 760 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 755 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.0
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 310831
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...GUILLERMO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 130.6W
ABOUT 1575 MI...2530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 130.6 West.  Guillermo
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Saturday.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 310831
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...GUILLERMO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 130.6W
ABOUT 1575 MI...2530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 130.6 West.  Guillermo
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Saturday.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 310830
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 130.6W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 130.6W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.1N 132.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.7N 135.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.3N 138.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 140.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 150.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 130.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 310830
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 130.6W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 130.6W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.1N 132.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.7N 135.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.3N 138.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 140.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 150.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 130.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
AXNT20 KNHC 310549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 20N43W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-48W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 68W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-
76W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
19N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N30W TO 08N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN
18W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN
26W-34W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE THE RIDGING
IS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI THEN
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH TEXAS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-95W...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E OF
93W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W. THE WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT LATE AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
BY MONDAY. SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDING ALONG 74W. THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS FARTHER
EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING E OF 70W.
FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN REMAINS FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES HOLD ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWINDS TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 26N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N77W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N58W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 310549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 20N43W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-48W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 68W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-
76W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
19N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N30W TO 08N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN
18W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN
26W-34W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE THE RIDGING
IS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI THEN
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH TEXAS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-95W...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E OF
93W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W. THE WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT LATE AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
BY MONDAY. SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDING ALONG 74W. THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS FARTHER
EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING E OF 70W.
FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN REMAINS FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES HOLD ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWINDS TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 26N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N77W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N58W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 310549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 20N43W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-48W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 68W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-
76W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
19N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N30W TO 08N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN
18W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN
26W-34W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE THE RIDGING
IS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI THEN
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH TEXAS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-95W...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E OF
93W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W. THE WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT LATE AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
BY MONDAY. SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDING ALONG 74W. THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS FARTHER
EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING E OF 70W.
FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN REMAINS FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES HOLD ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWINDS TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 26N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N77W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N58W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 310549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 20N43W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-48W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 68W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-
76W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
19N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N30W TO 08N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN
18W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN
26W-34W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE THE RIDGING
IS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI THEN
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH TEXAS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-95W...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E OF
93W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W. THE WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT LATE AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
BY MONDAY. SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDING ALONG 74W. THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS FARTHER
EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING E OF 70W.
FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN REMAINS FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES HOLD ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWINDS TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 26N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N77W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N58W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 310549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 20N43W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-48W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 68W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-
76W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
19N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N30W TO 08N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN
18W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN
26W-34W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE THE RIDGING
IS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI THEN
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH TEXAS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-95W...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E OF
93W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W. THE WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT LATE AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
BY MONDAY. SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDING ALONG 74W. THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS FARTHER
EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING E OF 70W.
FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN REMAINS FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES HOLD ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWINDS TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 26N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N77W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N58W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 310549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 20N43W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-48W AND
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 68W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-
76W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
19N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N30W TO 08N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN
18W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN
26W-34W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE THE RIDGING
IS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI THEN
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH TEXAS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-95W...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E OF
93W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W. THE WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT LATE AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
BY MONDAY. SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDING ALONG 74W. THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS FARTHER
EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING E OF 70W.
FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN REMAINS FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES HOLD ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWINDS TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 26N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N77W AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N58W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 310543
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 790 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.


$$

GIBBS







000
ACPN50 PHFO 310543
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 790 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.


$$

GIBBS







000
ACPN50 PHFO 310543
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 790 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 310538
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 790 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.


$$

GIBBS





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310526
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310526
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310526
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 310523
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure is
located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.  This disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is
possible into early next week while it moves generally westward at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the North Carolina coast.  This low is expected to
move northeastward and merge with a frontal system later today, and
significant development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 310523
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure is
located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.  This disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is
possible into early next week while it moves generally westward at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the North Carolina coast.  This low is expected to
move northeastward and merge with a frontal system later today, and
significant development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 310523
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure is
located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.  This disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is
possible into early next week while it moves generally westward at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the North Carolina coast.  This low is expected to
move northeastward and merge with a frontal system later today, and
significant development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 310523
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure is
located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.  This disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is
possible into early next week while it moves generally westward at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the North Carolina coast.  This low is expected to
move northeastward and merge with a frontal system later today, and
significant development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310306
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 PM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR SLOWNG DOWN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 157.9E

ABOUT 465 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 585 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 820 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 830 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 885 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SOUTHWEST...225 DEGREES AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.9
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM TONIGHT.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310306
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 PM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR SLOWNG DOWN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 157.9E

ABOUT 465 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 585 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 820 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 830 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 885 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SOUTHWEST...225 DEGREES AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.9
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM TONIGHT.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310306
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 PM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR SLOWNG DOWN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 157.9E

ABOUT 465 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 585 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 820 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 830 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 885 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SOUTHWEST...225 DEGREES AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.9
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM TONIGHT.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310306
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
200 PM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR SLOWNG DOWN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 157.9E

ABOUT 465 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 585 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 820 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 830 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 885 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SOUTHWEST...225 DEGREES AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.9
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM TONIGHT.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310300
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO AT 31/0300 UTC WAS NEAR
10.8N 129.3W 991 MB...MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRI MORNING. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM
IN THE NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N AND 210 NM IN THE S
SEMICIRCLES. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH INDUCED BY
THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE MAINTAINING A NARROWING ZONE OF 20-25 KT
WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 17N TO 24N
W OF 135W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AND MOVE
W OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRI.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 09N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 09N95W TO 06N106W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA BETWEEN
83W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
92W AND 95W...AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS
SE INTO THE AREA AND PASSES THROUGH 30N134W TO 21N113W. THE
SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL
TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH THE NWLY
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A
SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 24N AND TO THE WEST OF 135W. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA BY FRI...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN S
OF 20N ON FRI AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES WNW AND TRACKS W OF 130W.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND MANAGUA...WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS DOWNWIND OF THIS
REGION WILL FLUCTUATE AT 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS HAS DECREASED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LEAVING A SWATH OF 8 FT SEAS. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. THE NEXT PULSE WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT EXPECTED.

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310300
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO AT 31/0300 UTC WAS NEAR
10.8N 129.3W 991 MB...MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRI MORNING. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM
IN THE NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N AND 210 NM IN THE S
SEMICIRCLES. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH INDUCED BY
THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE MAINTAINING A NARROWING ZONE OF 20-25 KT
WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 17N TO 24N
W OF 135W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AND MOVE
W OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRI.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 09N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 09N95W TO 06N106W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA BETWEEN
83W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
92W AND 95W...AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS
SE INTO THE AREA AND PASSES THROUGH 30N134W TO 21N113W. THE
SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL
TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH THE NWLY
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A
SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 24N AND TO THE WEST OF 135W. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA BY FRI...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN S
OF 20N ON FRI AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES WNW AND TRACKS W OF 130W.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND MANAGUA...WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS DOWNWIND OF THIS
REGION WILL FLUCTUATE AT 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS HAS DECREASED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LEAVING A SWATH OF 8 FT SEAS. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. THE NEXT PULSE WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT EXPECTED.

$$
COBB



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 310246
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...GUILLERMO QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 129.3W
ABOUT 1525 MI...2460 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 129.3 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward
the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected
tonight or Friday, with this motion continuing through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days, and Guillermo is expected to become
a hurricane later tonight or on Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 310246
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...GUILLERMO QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 129.3W
ABOUT 1525 MI...2460 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 129.3 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward
the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected
tonight or Friday, with this motion continuing through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days, and Guillermo is expected to become
a hurricane later tonight or on Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 310246
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...GUILLERMO QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 129.3W
ABOUT 1525 MI...2460 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 129.3 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward
the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected
tonight or Friday, with this motion continuing through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days, and Guillermo is expected to become
a hurricane later tonight or on Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 310246
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 129.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 129.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.4N 131.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 134.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.1N 137.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 139.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 149.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 129.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302355
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302355
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302355
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
AXNT20 KNHC 302351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 41W
FROM 10N-19N MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 72W FROM
OVER HAITI TO OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W ALONG 16N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
12N28W TO 8N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N52W
TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N
E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 18W-22W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 1009 MB LOW DOTTING THE AREA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 27W-
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E
CONUS ANCHORED OVER S OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR
PANAMA CITY THEN ALONG 28N87W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO 23N E OF 93W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE E BAY CAMPECHE. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N89W TO OVER TEXAS. THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED NEAR 25N SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA THEN W TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING
S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 60W-63W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT N ON SAT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRI AFTERNOON INCREASING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 32N77W ALONG
30N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER FLORIDA HAVE MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WATERS FROM VERO BEACH
TO TITUSVILLE W OF 79W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND N TO 31N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
30N71W TO 25N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE AZORES
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N59W
THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE W ATLC 1012 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF
THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 302351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 41W
FROM 10N-19N MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 72W FROM
OVER HAITI TO OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W ALONG 16N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
12N28W TO 8N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N52W
TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N
E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 18W-22W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 1009 MB LOW DOTTING THE AREA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 27W-
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E
CONUS ANCHORED OVER S OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR
PANAMA CITY THEN ALONG 28N87W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO 23N E OF 93W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE E BAY CAMPECHE. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N89W TO OVER TEXAS. THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED NEAR 25N SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA THEN W TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING
S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 60W-63W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT N ON SAT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRI AFTERNOON INCREASING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 32N77W ALONG
30N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER FLORIDA HAVE MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WATERS FROM VERO BEACH
TO TITUSVILLE W OF 79W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND N TO 31N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
30N71W TO 25N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE AZORES
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N59W
THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE W ATLC 1012 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF
THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ACPN50 PHFO 302345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 970 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

FOSTER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 302345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 970 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

FOSTER





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302345
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ESTE DISTURBIO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...Y ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES
POSIBLE HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUAN EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR. SE ESPERA
QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE Y SE COMBINE CON UN
SISTEMA FRONTAL EL VIERNES...Y UN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO ES
IMPROBABLE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302345
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ESTE DISTURBIO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...Y ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES
POSIBLE HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUAN EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR. SE ESPERA
QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE Y SE COMBINE CON UN
SISTEMA FRONTAL EL VIERNES...Y UN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO ES
IMPROBABLE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302345
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ESTE DISTURBIO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...Y ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES
POSIBLE HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUAN EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR. SE ESPERA
QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE Y SE COMBINE CON UN
SISTEMA FRONTAL EL VIERNES...Y UN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO ES
IMPROBABLE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302345
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ESTE DISTURBIO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...Y ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES
POSIBLE HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUAN EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR. SE ESPERA
QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE Y SE COMBINE CON UN
SISTEMA FRONTAL EL VIERNES...Y UN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO ES
IMPROBABLE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI



000
ABNT20 KNHC 302340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure is
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
This disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is possible
into early next week while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the South Carolina coast. This low is expected to move
northeastward and merge with a frontal system on Friday, and
significant development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 302340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure is
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
This disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is possible
into early next week while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the South Carolina coast. This low is expected to move
northeastward and merge with a frontal system on Friday, and
significant development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 302340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure is
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
This disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is possible
into early next week while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the South Carolina coast. This low is expected to move
northeastward and merge with a frontal system on Friday, and
significant development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 302340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure is
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
This disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is possible
into early next week while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the South Carolina coast. This low is expected to move
northeastward and merge with a frontal system on Friday, and
significant development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302339
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302339
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO AT 30/2100 UTC WAS NEAR
9.8N 128.4W 1001 MB...MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRI. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 TO
300 NM IN THE N QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT.
 PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E HAS MOVED WEST OF
THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH INDUCED
BY THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE MAINTAINING A BROAD ZONE OF 20-
25...LOCALLY 30 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM 17N TO 24N W OF 132W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AND MOVE W OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
FRI.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 09N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 06N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...AND
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS
SE INTO THE AREA AND PASSES THROUGH 30N134W TO 21N113W. THE
SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL
TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH THE NWLY
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A
SWATH OF 20 TO 30 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 24N AND TO THE WEST OF 132W. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA BY FRI...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN S
OF 20N ON FRI AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES WNW AND TRACK W OF 130W.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND MANAGUA...WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS DOWNWIND OF THIS
REGION WILL FLUCTUATE AT 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS HAS DECREASED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LEAVING A SWATH OF 8 FT SEAS. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. THE NEXT PULSE WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT
EXPECTED.

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO AT 30/2100 UTC WAS NEAR
9.8N 128.4W 1001 MB...MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRI. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 TO
300 NM IN THE N QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT.
 PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E HAS MOVED WEST OF
THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH INDUCED
BY THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE MAINTAINING A BROAD ZONE OF 20-
25...LOCALLY 30 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM 17N TO 24N W OF 132W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AND MOVE W OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
FRI.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 09N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 06N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...AND
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS
SE INTO THE AREA AND PASSES THROUGH 30N134W TO 21N113W. THE
SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL
TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH THE NWLY
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A
SWATH OF 20 TO 30 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 24N AND TO THE WEST OF 132W. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA BY FRI...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN S
OF 20N ON FRI AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES WNW AND TRACK W OF 130W.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND MANAGUA...WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS DOWNWIND OF THIS
REGION WILL FLUCTUATE AT 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS HAS DECREASED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LEAVING A SWATH OF 8 FT SEAS. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. THE NEXT PULSE WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT
EXPECTED.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO AT 30/2100 UTC WAS NEAR
9.8N 128.4W 1001 MB...MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRI. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 TO
300 NM IN THE N QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT.
 PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E HAS MOVED WEST OF
THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH INDUCED
BY THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE MAINTAINING A BROAD ZONE OF 20-
25...LOCALLY 30 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM 17N TO 24N W OF 132W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AND MOVE W OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
FRI.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 09N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 06N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...AND
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS
SE INTO THE AREA AND PASSES THROUGH 30N134W TO 21N113W. THE
SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL
TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH THE NWLY
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A
SWATH OF 20 TO 30 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 24N AND TO THE WEST OF 132W. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA BY FRI...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN S
OF 20N ON FRI AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES WNW AND TRACK W OF 130W.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND MANAGUA...WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS DOWNWIND OF THIS
REGION WILL FLUCTUATE AT 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS HAS DECREASED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LEAVING A SWATH OF 8 FT SEAS. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. THE NEXT PULSE WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT
EXPECTED.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO AT 30/2100 UTC WAS NEAR
9.8N 128.4W 1001 MB...MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRI. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 TO
300 NM IN THE N QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT.
 PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E HAS MOVED WEST OF
THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH INDUCED
BY THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE MAINTAINING A BROAD ZONE OF 20-
25...LOCALLY 30 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM 17N TO 24N W OF 132W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AND MOVE W OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
FRI.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 09N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DESCRIBED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 06N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...AND
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS
SE INTO THE AREA AND PASSES THROUGH 30N134W TO 21N113W. THE
SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL
TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH THE NWLY
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A
SWATH OF 20 TO 30 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 24N AND TO THE WEST OF 132W. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA BY FRI...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN S
OF 20N ON FRI AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES WNW AND TRACK W OF 130W.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND MANAGUA...WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS DOWNWIND OF THIS
REGION WILL FLUCTUATE AT 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS HAS DECREASED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LEAVING A SWATH OF 8 FT SEAS. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. THE NEXT PULSE WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT
EXPECTED.

$$
COBB


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 302045
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 158.1E

ABOUT 490 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 615 NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 830 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 895 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
THE 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR IS NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
158.1 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 302045
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 AM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 158.1E

ABOUT 490 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 615 NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 830 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 895 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
THE 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR IS NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
158.1 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 302031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 128.4W
ABOUT 1520 MI...2445 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1905 MI...3065 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 128.4 West.  Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A west-
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Guillermo is expected to become a
hurricane on Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 302031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
2100 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 128.4W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 128.4W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 127.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 11.5N 133.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.4N 136.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.2N 139.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.9N 143.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N 148.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.8N 128.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 302031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 128.4W
ABOUT 1520 MI...2445 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1905 MI...3065 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 128.4 West.  Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A west-
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Guillermo is expected to become a
hurricane on Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301745
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA GRANDE DE
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS... Y ALGUN DESARROLLO ES POSIBLE HASTA
PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA COMO A 250 MILLAS AL
ESTE DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR ESTA ACOMPANADA POR ACTIVIDAD
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA BAJA PRESION
SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE PARALELO A LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS SIN NINGUN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO...Y SE PRONOSTICA SE
COMBINE CON UN SISTEMA FRONTAL EL VIERNES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301745
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA
LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA GRANDE DE
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS... Y ALGUN DESARROLLO ES POSIBLE HASTA
PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA COMO A 250 MILLAS AL
ESTE DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR ESTA ACOMPANADA POR ACTIVIDAD
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA BAJA PRESION
SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE PARALELO A LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS SIN NINGUN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO...Y SE PRONOSTICA SE
COMBINE CON UN SISTEMA FRONTAL EL VIERNES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ABNT20 KNHC 301740
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is located a
few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This
disturbance continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development is possible into early
next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of
the South Carolina coast is accompanied by disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  The low is expected to move northeastward
parallel to the southeastern coast of the United States with no
significant development, and is forecast to merge with a frontal
system on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301740
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is located a
few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This
disturbance continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development is possible into early
next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of
the South Carolina coast is accompanied by disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  The low is expected to move northeastward
parallel to the southeastern coast of the United States with no
significant development, and is forecast to merge with a frontal
system on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301740
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is located a
few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This
disturbance continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development is possible into early
next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of
the South Carolina coast is accompanied by disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  The low is expected to move northeastward
parallel to the southeastern coast of the United States with no
significant development, and is forecast to merge with a frontal
system on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301740
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is located a
few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This
disturbance continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development is possible into early
next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of
the South Carolina coast is accompanied by disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  The low is expected to move northeastward
parallel to the southeastern coast of the United States with no
significant development, and is forecast to merge with a frontal
system on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301740
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is located a
few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This
disturbance continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development is possible into early
next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of
the South Carolina coast is accompanied by disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  The low is expected to move northeastward
parallel to the southeastern coast of the United States with no
significant development, and is forecast to merge with a frontal
system on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACPN50 PHFO 301739
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1980 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.


$$

FOSTER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301739
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1980 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.


$$

FOSTER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 301739
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1980 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.


$$

FOSTER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 301739
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1980 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.


$$

FOSTER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 301739
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REDEVELOPMENT OF EIGHT-E IS NOT EXPECTED.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1980 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.


$$

FOSTER






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the final advisory
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-E, located well to the east of the
Hawaiian Islands.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT WERE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE-FORCE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GALE-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 31N77W AND A HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE-
FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.
HOWEVER...WINDS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM SE OF THE
LOW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N37W TO 20N40W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB
TROUGHING BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. A MODERATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE N
OF 12N IS INDICATED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N70W TO 21N69W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A 700 MB TROUGH IS NOTED
BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PAC. PLEASE
REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
18N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W TO 9N37W TO 09N47W...WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W
AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO
14N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MOIST AIRMASS IN NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY N OF 24N AND E OF
95W OVER THE GULF BASIN TODAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTS A
BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF BASIN.
STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N92W SUPPORTING 10 KT E WINDS OVER THE SW
GULF...NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE NW GULF...AND NW TO W
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NW GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM SAINT VINCENT TO DOMINICA OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO UNDER GALE-FORCE. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE MAINLY ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. REMNANT MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N77W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH TO
29N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WAS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS EARLIER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N32W SUPPORTS GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC E
OF 67W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the final advisory
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-E, located well to the east of the
Hawaiian Islands.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT WERE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE-FORCE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GALE-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 31N77W AND A HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE-
FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.
HOWEVER...WINDS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM SE OF THE
LOW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N37W TO 20N40W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB
TROUGHING BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. A MODERATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE N
OF 12N IS INDICATED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N70W TO 21N69W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A 700 MB TROUGH IS NOTED
BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PAC. PLEASE
REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
18N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W TO 9N37W TO 09N47W...WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W
AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO
14N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MOIST AIRMASS IN NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY N OF 24N AND E OF
95W OVER THE GULF BASIN TODAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTS A
BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF BASIN.
STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N92W SUPPORTING 10 KT E WINDS OVER THE SW
GULF...NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE NW GULF...AND NW TO W
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NW GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM SAINT VINCENT TO DOMINICA OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO UNDER GALE-FORCE. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE MAINLY ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. REMNANT MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N77W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH TO
29N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WAS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS EARLIER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N32W SUPPORTS GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC E
OF 67W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the final advisory
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-E, located well to the east of the
Hawaiian Islands.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT WERE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE-FORCE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GALE-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 31N77W AND A HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE-
FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.
HOWEVER...WINDS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM SE OF THE
LOW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N37W TO 20N40W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB
TROUGHING BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. A MODERATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE N
OF 12N IS INDICATED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N70W TO 21N69W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A 700 MB TROUGH IS NOTED
BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PAC. PLEASE
REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
18N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W TO 9N37W TO 09N47W...WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W
AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO
14N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MOIST AIRMASS IN NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY N OF 24N AND E OF
95W OVER THE GULF BASIN TODAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTS A
BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF BASIN.
STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N92W SUPPORTING 10 KT E WINDS OVER THE SW
GULF...NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE NW GULF...AND NW TO W
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NW GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM SAINT VINCENT TO DOMINICA OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO UNDER GALE-FORCE. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE MAINLY ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. REMNANT MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N77W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH TO
29N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WAS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS EARLIER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N32W SUPPORTS GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC E
OF 67W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the final advisory
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-E, located well to the east of the
Hawaiian Islands.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT WERE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE-FORCE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GALE-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 31N77W AND A HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE-
FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.
HOWEVER...WINDS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM SE OF THE
LOW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N37W TO 20N40W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB
TROUGHING BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. A MODERATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE N
OF 12N IS INDICATED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N70W TO 21N69W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A 700 MB TROUGH IS NOTED
BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PAC. PLEASE
REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
18N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W TO 9N37W TO 09N47W...WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W
AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO
14N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MOIST AIRMASS IN NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY N OF 24N AND E OF
95W OVER THE GULF BASIN TODAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTS A
BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF BASIN.
STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N92W SUPPORTING 10 KT E WINDS OVER THE SW
GULF...NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE NW GULF...AND NW TO W
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NW GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM SAINT VINCENT TO DOMINICA OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO UNDER GALE-FORCE. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE MAINLY ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. REMNANT MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N77W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH TO
29N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WAS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS EARLIER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N32W SUPPORTS GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC E
OF 67W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the final advisory
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-E, located well to the east of the
Hawaiian Islands.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT WERE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE-FORCE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GALE-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 31N77W AND A HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE-
FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.
HOWEVER...WINDS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM SE OF THE
LOW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N37W TO 20N40W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB
TROUGHING BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. A MODERATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE N
OF 12N IS INDICATED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N70W TO 21N69W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A 700 MB TROUGH IS NOTED
BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PAC. PLEASE
REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
18N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W TO 9N37W TO 09N47W...WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W
AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO
14N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MOIST AIRMASS IN NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY N OF 24N AND E OF
95W OVER THE GULF BASIN TODAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTS A
BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF BASIN.
STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N92W SUPPORTING 10 KT E WINDS OVER THE SW
GULF...NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE NW GULF...AND NW TO W
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NW GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM SAINT VINCENT TO DOMINICA OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO UNDER GALE-FORCE. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE MAINLY ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. REMNANT MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N77W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH TO
29N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WAS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS EARLIER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N32W SUPPORTS GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC E
OF 67W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO AT 30/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
9.1N 127.5W 1002 MB...MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG SURROUNDS THE CENTER FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 126W AND
129W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 180 TO 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER IN A BAND. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN
240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 350 TO 650 NM NE QUADRANT...
EVERYTING IN THE SAME EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED BAND. GUILLERMO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS OR SO. GUILLERMO
EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS LATE
AS MONDAY OF THE NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E AT 30/1500 UTC WAS
NEAR 16.5N 139.4W 1007 MB...MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 420 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY...WITH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH INDUCED BY THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE
MAINTAINING A BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE N
SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 80 TO 100 NM NE QUADRANT...AND LIMITED ELSEWHERE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W S OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DESCRIBED IN THE PARAGRAPH THAT IS
ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W S OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DESCRIBED IN THE PARAGRAPH THAT IS
ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALNOG 120W/121W SIX HOURS AGO HAS
BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N86W TO 08N94W TO 06N109W TO 07N117W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 80W. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N
TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS
SE INTO THE AREA AND PASSES THROUGH 30N134W TO 21N113W. THE
SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL
TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH THE NWLY
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT THERE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A BROAD
SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS  IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 22N AND TO THE WEST OF 132W. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY...BEFORE FRESHENING
AGAIN S OF 20N ON FRI AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES WNW AND TRACK W OF
130W.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND MANAGUA...WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS DOWNWIND OF THIS
REGION WILL FLUCTUATE AT 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WAS DEPICTED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND EXTENDED SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15N95W...WHERE SEAS BUILT TO 7-8 FT. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN PULSE
AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRI.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO AT 30/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
9.1N 127.5W 1002 MB...MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG SURROUNDS THE CENTER FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 126W AND
129W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 180 TO 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER IN A BAND. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN
240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 350 TO 650 NM NE QUADRANT...
EVERYTING IN THE SAME EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED BAND. GUILLERMO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS OR SO. GUILLERMO
EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS LATE
AS MONDAY OF THE NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E AT 30/1500 UTC WAS
NEAR 16.5N 139.4W 1007 MB...MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 420 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY...WITH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH INDUCED BY THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE
MAINTAINING A BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE N
SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 80 TO 100 NM NE QUADRANT...AND LIMITED ELSEWHERE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W S OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DESCRIBED IN THE PARAGRAPH THAT IS
ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W S OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DESCRIBED IN THE PARAGRAPH THAT IS
ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALNOG 120W/121W SIX HOURS AGO HAS
BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N86W TO 08N94W TO 06N109W TO 07N117W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 80W. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N
TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS
SE INTO THE AREA AND PASSES THROUGH 30N134W TO 21N113W. THE
SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL
TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH THE NWLY
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT THERE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A BROAD
SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS  IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 22N AND TO THE WEST OF 132W. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY...BEFORE FRESHENING
AGAIN S OF 20N ON FRI AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES WNW AND TRACK W OF
130W.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND MANAGUA...WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS DOWNWIND OF THIS
REGION WILL FLUCTUATE AT 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WAS DEPICTED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND EXTENDED SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15N95W...WHERE SEAS BUILT TO 7-8 FT. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN PULSE
AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRI.

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO AT 30/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
9.1N 127.5W 1002 MB...MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG SURROUNDS THE CENTER FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 126W AND
129W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 180 TO 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER IN A BAND. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN
240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 350 TO 650 NM NE QUADRANT...
EVERYTING IN THE SAME EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED BAND. GUILLERMO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS OR SO. GUILLERMO
EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS LATE
AS MONDAY OF THE NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E AT 30/1500 UTC WAS
NEAR 16.5N 139.4W 1007 MB...MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 420 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY...WITH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH INDUCED BY THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE
MAINTAINING A BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE N
SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 80 TO 100 NM NE QUADRANT...AND LIMITED ELSEWHERE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W S OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DESCRIBED IN THE PARAGRAPH THAT IS
ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W S OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DESCRIBED IN THE PARAGRAPH THAT IS
ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALNOG 120W/121W SIX HOURS AGO HAS
BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N86W TO 08N94W TO 06N109W TO 07N117W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 80W. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N
TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS
SE INTO THE AREA AND PASSES THROUGH 30N134W TO 21N113W. THE
SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL
TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH THE NWLY
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT THERE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A BROAD
SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS  IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 22N AND TO THE WEST OF 132W. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY...BEFORE FRESHENING
AGAIN S OF 20N ON FRI AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES WNW AND TRACK W OF
130W.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND MANAGUA...WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS DOWNWIND OF THIS
REGION WILL FLUCTUATE AT 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WAS DEPICTED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND EXTENDED SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15N95W...WHERE SEAS BUILT TO 7-8 FT. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN PULSE
AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRI.

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 301504 AAA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
500 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ IN MIAMI FLORIDA HAS ISSUED
ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT
1040 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC. BECAUSE EIGHT-E HAS WEAKENED BELOW DEPRESSION
STATUS...THERE WILL BE NO FURTHER ADVISORIES ISSUED ON THIS
SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

2. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1975 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HEADS WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 139.4W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Eight-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 139.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected until the system dissipates
later today or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 301436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...GUILLERMO STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 127.5W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1980 MI...3190 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 127.5 West.  Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A west-
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Guillermo could become a hurricane by Friday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 301436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...GUILLERMO STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 127.5W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1980 MI...3190 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 127.5 West.  Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A west-
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Guillermo could become a hurricane by Friday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 301436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...GUILLERMO STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 127.5W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1980 MI...3190 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 127.5 West.  Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A west-
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Guillermo could become a hurricane by Friday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 301436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...GUILLERMO STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 127.5W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1980 MI...3190 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 127.5 West.  Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A west-
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Guillermo could become a hurricane by Friday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 301435
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.8N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z  9.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.0N 135.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 142.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 16.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.1N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 301435
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.8N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z  9.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.0N 135.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 142.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 16.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.1N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 301435
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.8N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z  9.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.0N 135.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 142.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 16.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.1N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 301435
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.8N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z  9.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.0N 135.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 142.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 16.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.1N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 301435
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.8N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z  9.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.0N 135.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 142.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 16.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.1N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 301435
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 127.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.8N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z  9.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.0N 135.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 142.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 16.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.1N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301400
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1200 AM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 158.7E

ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 630 NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 935 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
THE 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR IS NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
158.7 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TODAY BEFORE TURNING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301400
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1200 AM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 158.7E

ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 630 NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 935 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
THE 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR IS NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
158.7 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TODAY BEFORE TURNING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301400
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1200 AM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 158.7E

ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 630 NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 935 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
THE 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR IS NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
158.7 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TODAY BEFORE TURNING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301400
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1200 AM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 158.7E

ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 630 NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 935 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
THE 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR IS NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
158.7 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TODAY BEFORE TURNING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301400
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1200 AM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 158.7E

ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 630 NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 935 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
THE 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR IS NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
158.7 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TODAY BEFORE TURNING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301400
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
1200 AM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 158.7E

ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 630 NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 935 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
THE 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR IS NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
158.7 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TODAY BEFORE TURNING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
ACPN50 PHFO 301233 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM NHC HAS EIGHT-E
SOON CROSSING 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. CPHC WILL BE ISSUING THE NEXT BULLETIN ON
EIGHT-E UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA34 PHFO LATER
THIS MORNING.

2. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 2000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CROSS INTO CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HEADS WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301233 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM NHC HAS EIGHT-E
SOON CROSSING 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. CPHC WILL BE ISSUING THE NEXT BULLETIN ON
EIGHT-E UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA34 PHFO LATER
THIS MORNING.

2. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 2000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CROSS INTO CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HEADS WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 301214 AAA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM NHC HAS EIGHT-E
SOON CROSSING 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. CPHC WILL BE ISSUING THE NEXT BULLETIN ON
EIGHT-E UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA34 PHFO LATER
THIS MORNING.

2. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 2000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CROSS INTO CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HEADS WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301214 AAA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM NHC HAS EIGHT-E
SOON CROSSING 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. CPHC WILL BE ISSUING THE NEXT BULLETIN ON
EIGHT-E UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA34 PHFO LATER
THIS MORNING.

2. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED
ABOUT 2000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC. GUILLERMO IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CROSS INTO CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HEADS WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 301153
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM NHC HAS EIGHT-E
SOON CROSSING 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. CPHC WILL BE ISSUING THE NEXT BULLETIN ON
EIGHT-E UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA34 PHFO LATER
THIS MORNING.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HEADS WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301153
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM NHC HAS EIGHT-E
SOON CROSSING 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. CPHC WILL BE ISSUING THE NEXT BULLETIN ON
EIGHT-E UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA34 PHFO LATER
THIS MORNING.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HEADS WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 301153
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM NHC HAS EIGHT-E
SOON CROSSING 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. CPHC WILL BE ISSUING THE NEXT BULLETIN ON
EIGHT-E UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA34 PHFO LATER
THIS MORNING.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HEADS WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 301153
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM NHC HAS EIGHT-E
SOON CROSSING 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. CPHC WILL BE ISSUING THE NEXT BULLETIN ON
EIGHT-E UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA34 PHFO LATER
THIS MORNING.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE LOW IS GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HEADS WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301150
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA AMPLIO DE BAJA PRESION
ESTA LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE CABO VERDE. AUNQUE ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA GRANDE
DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...DESARROLLO...SI ALGUNO...DEBE SER LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE
MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA ESTA ACOMPANADA POR ACTIVIDAD
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA BAJA PRESION
SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE PARALELO A LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS SIN NINGUN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO...Y SE PRONOSTICA SE
COMBINE CON UN SISTEMA FRONTAL PARA EL VIERNES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301150
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA AMPLIO DE BAJA PRESION
ESTA LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE CABO VERDE. AUNQUE ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA GRANDE
DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...DESARROLLO...SI ALGUNO...DEBE SER LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE
MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA ESTA ACOMPANADA POR ACTIVIDAD
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA BAJA PRESION
SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE PARALELO A LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS SIN NINGUN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO...Y SE PRONOSTICA SE
COMBINE CON UN SISTEMA FRONTAL PARA EL VIERNES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301150
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA AMPLIO DE BAJA PRESION
ESTA LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE CABO VERDE. AUNQUE ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA GRANDE
DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...DESARROLLO...SI ALGUNO...DEBE SER LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE
MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA ESTA ACOMPANADA POR ACTIVIDAD
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA BAJA PRESION
SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE PARALELO A LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS SIN NINGUN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO...Y SE PRONOSTICA SE
COMBINE CON UN SISTEMA FRONTAL PARA EL VIERNES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301150
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA AMPLIO DE BAJA PRESION
ESTA LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE CABO VERDE. AUNQUE ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA GRANDE
DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...DESARROLLO...SI ALGUNO...DEBE SER LENTO EN
OCURRIR MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE
MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA ESTA ACOMPANADA POR ACTIVIDAD
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA BAJA PRESION
SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE PARALELO A LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS SIN NINGUN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO...Y SE PRONOSTICA SE
COMBINE CON UN SISTEMA FRONTAL PARA EL VIERNES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.  Although this system is currently producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms, further development, if any, should be
slow to occur while it moves westward near 15 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Georgia coast is accompanied by disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity.  The low is expected to move
northeastward parallel to the southeastern coast of the United
States with no significant development, and is forecast to merge
with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.  Although this system is currently producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms, further development, if any, should be
slow to occur while it moves westward near 15 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Georgia coast is accompanied by disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity.  The low is expected to move
northeastward parallel to the southeastern coast of the United
States with no significant development, and is forecast to merge
with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.  Although this system is currently producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms, further development, if any, should be
slow to occur while it moves westward near 15 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Georgia coast is accompanied by disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity.  The low is expected to move
northeastward parallel to the southeastern coast of the United
States with no significant development, and is forecast to merge
with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.  Although this system is currently producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms, further development, if any, should be
slow to occur while it moves westward near 15 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Georgia coast is accompanied by disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity.  The low is expected to move
northeastward parallel to the southeastern coast of the United
States with no significant development, and is forecast to merge
with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301133
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression
Eight-E, located well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301133
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression
Eight-E, located well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301133
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression
Eight-E, located well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301133
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Guillermo, located well to the southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression
Eight-E, located well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands.

&&
Public Advisories on Guillermo are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WARNING CRITERIA BY 30/1800 UTC. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N77W AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE EAST. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 30/1200
UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 20N37W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 33W-42W AND
LIES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SPUN UP A 1010
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N65W TO 20N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 62W-71W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 19N87W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 84W-92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 81W-86W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 83W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N17W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N25W TO 10N35W TO 09N40W TO
10N48W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N48W TO 11N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 15W-20W...FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 24W-31W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE 1010 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN
33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 20N E OF 94W
PRIMARILY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO CONVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. AN
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 81W-92W. OTHERWISE...A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N93W IS
PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN GULF
WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
22N69W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 87W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF A LINE FROM 17N84W
TO 09N76W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W HOWEVER IS ONLY GENERATING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT
FOR THE BASIN REMAINS NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N
BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 38N56W TO
32N66W TO 29N77W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 30N77W WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING N-NE TO BEYOND
33N76W AND SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN
75W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 28N50W TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WARNING CRITERIA BY 30/1800 UTC. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N77W AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE EAST. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 30/1200
UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 20N37W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 33W-42W AND
LIES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SPUN UP A 1010
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N65W TO 20N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 62W-71W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 19N87W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 84W-92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 81W-86W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 83W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N17W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N25W TO 10N35W TO 09N40W TO
10N48W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N48W TO 11N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 15W-20W...FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 24W-31W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE 1010 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN
33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 20N E OF 94W
PRIMARILY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO CONVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. AN
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 81W-92W. OTHERWISE...A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N93W IS
PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN GULF
WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
22N69W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 87W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF A LINE FROM 17N84W
TO 09N76W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W HOWEVER IS ONLY GENERATING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT
FOR THE BASIN REMAINS NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N
BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 38N56W TO
32N66W TO 29N77W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 30N77W WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING N-NE TO BEYOND
33N76W AND SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN
75W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 28N50W TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WARNING CRITERIA BY 30/1800 UTC. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N77W AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE EAST. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 30/1200
UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 20N37W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 33W-42W AND
LIES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SPUN UP A 1010
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N65W TO 20N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 62W-71W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 19N87W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 84W-92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 81W-86W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 83W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N17W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N25W TO 10N35W TO 09N40W TO
10N48W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N48W TO 11N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 15W-20W...FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 24W-31W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE 1010 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN
33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 20N E OF 94W
PRIMARILY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO CONVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. AN
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 81W-92W. OTHERWISE...A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N93W IS
PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN GULF
WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
22N69W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 87W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF A LINE FROM 17N84W
TO 09N76W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W HOWEVER IS ONLY GENERATING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT
FOR THE BASIN REMAINS NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N
BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 38N56W TO
32N66W TO 29N77W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 30N77W WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING N-NE TO BEYOND
33N76W AND SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN
75W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 28N50W TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301032
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR 8.5N 126.3W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT
13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR
THE CENTER OR GUILLERMO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 330 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON THIS WEST NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS. WARM SST`S AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE BY 36-48
HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...GUILLERMO WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
SST`S AND A PERIOD OF WEAKENING IS THEN LIKELY. INCREASING WINDS
AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF GUILLERMO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 16.5N 138.5W
AT 0900 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007
MB. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH INDUCED
BY THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE MAINTAINING A BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE. VERY LIMITED CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH A LONE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NOTED FROM 120 TO 240 NM ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH WITHIN 24-36 HOURS
AS IT MOVES BEYOND THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 84W-87W HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS DESCRIBED BELOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...BUT
CURRENTLY IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 94W-97W IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MAINLY OCCURRING NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED BELOW...BUT IS ALSO OCCURRING S
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A
BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N96W...WHERE ELY WINDS 15-20 KT
ARE SHIFTING WWD ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS OF THE LOW AND BEHIND
THE WAVE. SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN THIS REGION.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 120W-121W IS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE E
PORTIONS OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN A LONG BAND
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 121.5W. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE MAPS AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
CIRCULATION OF GUILLERMO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 09N86W TO 07N97W TO
06.5N112W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN
80W AND 100W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATE STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND
112W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS
SE INTO THE AREA AND PASSES THROUGH 30N134W TO 21N113W. THE
SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL
TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH THE NWLY
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 20 KT WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT THERE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A BROAD
SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS  IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 22N AND TO THE WEST OF 132W. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY...BEFORE FRESHENING
AGAIN S OF 20N ON FRI AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES WNW AND TRACK W OF
130W.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND MANAGUA...WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS DOWNWIND OF THIS
REGION WILL FLUCTUATE AT 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WAS DEPICTED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND EXTENDED SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15N95W...WHERE SEAS BUILT TO 7-8 FT. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN PULSE
AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRI.

$$
STRIPLING



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300954
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA AMPLIO DE BAJA PRESION
ESTA LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUR SUROESTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. AUNQUE ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
GRANDE DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...DESARROLLO...SI ALGUNO...DEBE SER
LENTO EN OCURRIR MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE
MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA NORTE DE LA FLORIDA...ESTA ACOMPANADA POR
ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA BAJA PRESION
SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE SIN NINGUN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO...Y SE
PRONOSTICA SE COMBINE CON UN SISTEMA FRONTAL PARA EL VIERNES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300954
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT JUEVES 30 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA AMPLIO DE BAJA PRESION
ESTA LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUR SUROESTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. AUNQUE ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
GRANDE DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...DESARROLLO...SI ALGUNO...DEBE SER
LENTO EN OCURRIR MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
  DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE
MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA COSTA NORTE DE LA FLORIDA...ESTA ACOMPANADA POR
ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA BAJA PRESION
SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE SIN NINGUN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO...Y SE
PRONOSTICA SE COMBINE CON UN SISTEMA FRONTAL PARA EL VIERNES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
  HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10
  POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300853
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
700 PM CHST THU JUL 30 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 159.4E

ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 660 NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 920 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 985 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.4
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 13W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE
TURNING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...ON A TRACK THAT WOULD
TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 300839
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORMS OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.5N 126.3W
ABOUT 1475 MI...2370 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 8.5 North, longitude 126.3 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast and Guillermo could become a
hurricane on Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 300839
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
200 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORMS OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.5N 126.3W
ABOUT 1475 MI...2370 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 8.5 North, longitude 126.3 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast and Guillermo could become a
hurricane on Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 300838
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
0900 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.5N 126.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.5N 126.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.3N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z  8.9N 128.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.1N 131.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 11.2N 134.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 137.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.5N 141.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 16.3N 144.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 146.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  8.5N 126.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 300835
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
0900 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.5W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 138.5W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 137.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.3N 140.8W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.0N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 138.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300835
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 138.5W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 138.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to dissipate later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




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