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000
AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W SW
TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 17W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB LOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA NW TO THE PANHANDLE...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
EXTENDING INLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINING WESTERN GULF S OF 26N
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. MOSTLY SE TO E WIND FLOW OF 15 KT ARE
W OF 90W WHILE LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF
90W. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
15N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE HALF WESTERN BASIN WHILE A TROUGH COVER THE
REMAINDER BASIN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND NE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...WESTERN
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM
30N33W SW TO 26N45W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 27N61W TO 27N66W TO A 1014 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN CONTINUES SW TO CAPE
CANAVERAL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W SW
TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 17W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB LOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA NW TO THE PANHANDLE...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
EXTENDING INLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINING WESTERN GULF S OF 26N
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. MOSTLY SE TO E WIND FLOW OF 15 KT ARE
W OF 90W WHILE LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF
90W. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
15N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE HALF WESTERN BASIN WHILE A TROUGH COVER THE
REMAINDER BASIN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND NE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...WESTERN
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM
30N33W SW TO 26N45W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 27N61W TO 27N66W TO A 1014 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN CONTINUES SW TO CAPE
CANAVERAL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W SW
TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 17W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB LOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA NW TO THE PANHANDLE...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
EXTENDING INLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINING WESTERN GULF S OF 26N
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. MOSTLY SE TO E WIND FLOW OF 15 KT ARE
W OF 90W WHILE LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF
90W. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
15N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE HALF WESTERN BASIN WHILE A TROUGH COVER THE
REMAINDER BASIN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND NE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...WESTERN
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM
30N33W SW TO 26N45W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 27N61W TO 27N66W TO A 1014 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN CONTINUES SW TO CAPE
CANAVERAL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W SW
TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 17W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB LOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA NW TO THE PANHANDLE...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
EXTENDING INLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINING WESTERN GULF S OF 26N
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. MOSTLY SE TO E WIND FLOW OF 15 KT ARE
W OF 90W WHILE LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF
90W. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
15N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE HALF WESTERN BASIN WHILE A TROUGH COVER THE
REMAINDER BASIN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND NE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...WESTERN
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM
30N33W SW TO 26N45W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 27N61W TO 27N66W TO A 1014 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN CONTINUES SW TO CAPE
CANAVERAL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N107W TO 02N128W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 04N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MEXICO. A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N121W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION W OF 110W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 1300 UTC
SHOWED 10-11 FT SEAS IN NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 125W INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...AND ALLOW AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N107W TO 02N128W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 04N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MEXICO. A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N121W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION W OF 110W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 1300 UTC
SHOWED 10-11 FT SEAS IN NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 125W INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...AND ALLOW AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N107W TO 02N128W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 04N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MEXICO. A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N121W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION W OF 110W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 1300 UTC
SHOWED 10-11 FT SEAS IN NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 125W INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...AND ALLOW AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N107W TO 02N128W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 04N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MEXICO. A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N121W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION W OF 110W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 1300 UTC
SHOWED 10-11 FT SEAS IN NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 125W INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...AND ALLOW AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 172339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO
5N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 2N20W TO 1N30W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-5S BETWEEN 14W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE
FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 29N83W TO N OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA AT 31N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 27N E OF 88W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA S OF
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER E TEXAS E OF 100W AND N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE
FAR NW GULF COAST. THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
FOG OR STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF FROM 20N-29N W OF 93W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO NEAR 39N106W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER E TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST
OF THE GULF N OF 22N WHILE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NE
GULF. ALSO EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO MOVE OVER THE NW
GULF AND LOUISIANA WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA E OF 82W...AND OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW
VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
...AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AT 32N78W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N W OF 67W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N36W TO 26N50W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N50W TO 27N60W TO 31N72W TO
THE LOW AT 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT E OF 67W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N21W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N27W
TO 26N37W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OFF GEORGIA TO
MOVE TO 33N73W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO THE SE
FLORIDA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 172339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO
5N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 2N20W TO 1N30W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-5S BETWEEN 14W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE
FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 29N83W TO N OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA AT 31N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 27N E OF 88W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA S OF
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER E TEXAS E OF 100W AND N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE
FAR NW GULF COAST. THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
FOG OR STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF FROM 20N-29N W OF 93W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO NEAR 39N106W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER E TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST
OF THE GULF N OF 22N WHILE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NE
GULF. ALSO EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO MOVE OVER THE NW
GULF AND LOUISIANA WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA E OF 82W...AND OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW
VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
...AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AT 32N78W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N W OF 67W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N36W TO 26N50W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N50W TO 27N60W TO 31N72W TO
THE LOW AT 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT E OF 67W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N21W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N27W
TO 26N37W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OFF GEORGIA TO
MOVE TO 33N73W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO THE SE
FLORIDA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172120
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N106W TO 02N128W TO 06N138W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 03N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MEXICO. A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N121W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY N
OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION W OF 110W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 1300 UTC
SHOWED 10-11 FT SEAS IN NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ABOUT 1
FT HIGHER THAN WWW GUIDANCE. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM
10N TO 15N W OF 130W INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND ALLOW AN AREA OF 8-
9 FT SEAS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 09-16N W OF 120W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172120
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N106W TO 02N128W TO 06N138W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 03N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MEXICO. A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N121W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY N
OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION W OF 110W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 1300 UTC
SHOWED 10-11 FT SEAS IN NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ABOUT 1
FT HIGHER THAN WWW GUIDANCE. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM
10N TO 15N W OF 130W INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND ALLOW AN AREA OF 8-
9 FT SEAS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 09-16N W OF 120W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172120
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N106W TO 02N128W TO 06N138W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 03N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MEXICO. A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N121W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY N
OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION W OF 110W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 1300 UTC
SHOWED 10-11 FT SEAS IN NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ABOUT 1
FT HIGHER THAN WWW GUIDANCE. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM
10N TO 15N W OF 130W INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND ALLOW AN AREA OF 8-
9 FT SEAS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 09-16N W OF 120W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172120
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N106W TO 02N128W TO 06N138W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 03N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MEXICO. A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N121W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY N
OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION W OF 110W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 1300 UTC
SHOWED 10-11 FT SEAS IN NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ABOUT 1
FT HIGHER THAN WWW GUIDANCE. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM
10N TO 15N W OF 130W INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND ALLOW AN AREA OF 8-
9 FT SEAS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 09-16N W OF 120W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 6N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N19W 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 16W-32W AND FROM 1N-3N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS. A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE TO
TAMPA BAY WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N84W TO INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 29N87W ALONG 27N91W TO 27N94W WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90 NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-92W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE S GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
OVER THE NE GULF WILL EXIT BY SAT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO E PANAMA/COLOMBIA COVERING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...SW HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF NICARAGUA AND W OF 81W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SW HAITI. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
TODAY AND SAT. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUN AFTERNOON/
EVENING COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCE SHOWERS OVER GREATER
PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR
32N78W ALONG 30N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W ALONG 28N46W TO 27N55W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N67W THEN NE ALONG 31N74W TO THE SAME
1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-31W BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
27N60W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N56W TO 22N62W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC AND SE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N24W
26N30W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 23N42W. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE E ATLC TODAY THROUGH SAT. THE W ATLC
LOW WILL CONTINUE NE TODAY LIFTING THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE
FRONT NE AS A WARM FRONT AND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT W OF THE
LOW TO THE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THAT COLD FRONT REACHES FROM
31N75W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG
27N ON SUN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 6N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N19W 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 16W-32W AND FROM 1N-3N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS. A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE TO
TAMPA BAY WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N84W TO INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 29N87W ALONG 27N91W TO 27N94W WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90 NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-92W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE S GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
OVER THE NE GULF WILL EXIT BY SAT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO E PANAMA/COLOMBIA COVERING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...SW HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF NICARAGUA AND W OF 81W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SW HAITI. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
TODAY AND SAT. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUN AFTERNOON/
EVENING COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCE SHOWERS OVER GREATER
PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR
32N78W ALONG 30N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W ALONG 28N46W TO 27N55W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N67W THEN NE ALONG 31N74W TO THE SAME
1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-31W BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
27N60W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N56W TO 22N62W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC AND SE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N24W
26N30W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 23N42W. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE E ATLC TODAY THROUGH SAT. THE W ATLC
LOW WILL CONTINUE NE TODAY LIFTING THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE
FRONT NE AS A WARM FRONT AND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT W OF THE
LOW TO THE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THAT COLD FRONT REACHES FROM
31N75W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG
27N ON SUN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 6N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N19W 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 16W-32W AND FROM 1N-3N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS. A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE TO
TAMPA BAY WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N84W TO INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 29N87W ALONG 27N91W TO 27N94W WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90 NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-92W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE S GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
OVER THE NE GULF WILL EXIT BY SAT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO E PANAMA/COLOMBIA COVERING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...SW HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF NICARAGUA AND W OF 81W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SW HAITI. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
TODAY AND SAT. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUN AFTERNOON/
EVENING COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCE SHOWERS OVER GREATER
PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR
32N78W ALONG 30N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W ALONG 28N46W TO 27N55W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N67W THEN NE ALONG 31N74W TO THE SAME
1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-31W BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
27N60W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N56W TO 22N62W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC AND SE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N24W
26N30W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 23N42W. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE E ATLC TODAY THROUGH SAT. THE W ATLC
LOW WILL CONTINUE NE TODAY LIFTING THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE
FRONT NE AS A WARM FRONT AND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT W OF THE
LOW TO THE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THAT COLD FRONT REACHES FROM
31N75W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG
27N ON SUN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171526
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 04N120W TO 03N130W TO
06N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W...AND ALSO S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 06N95W TO 05N100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO
07N E OF 90W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THERE IS WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS. RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE BAJA
COAST AS NOTED BY A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. SEAS OFF
THE BAJA COAST ARE CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE
PASS ALONG 122W EARLIER THIS MORNING OBSERVED 8 TO 10 FT SEAS N
OF 25N. THIS IS EVIDENCE OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL INITIALIZED
IN WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SHOW SEAS OFF THE BAJA COAST E TO
120W BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
SHOWING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW. UPPER
DIVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
SITUATED OVER 12N90W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 90W. MODEST TRADE WIND
CONFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. OVERNIGHT LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. OTHERWISE SEAS ARE GENERALLY
3 TO 5 FT IN MOST AREAS...WITH UP TO 6 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL W
OF THE GALAPAGOS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.

W OF 120W...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 132W...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 140W S OF 10N. THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE AREA. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA...AS
NOTED BY AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS AND REPORTS
FROM GERMAN RV SONNE ON STATION NEAR 14N130W. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RECENT DATA
FROM A PAIR OF ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 11N140W
DUE MAINLY TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE MWW3 SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
SWELL DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE
AFFECTED BY A LOW BIAS WRT TO SWELL AND IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE
ECMWF/UKWAVE/GWES SHOWING 8 FT SEAS LINGERING OVER A LARGER AREA
THROUGH 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 115W...DECAYING TO BELOW 8
FT IN MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171526
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 04N120W TO 03N130W TO
06N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W...AND ALSO S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 06N95W TO 05N100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO
07N E OF 90W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THERE IS WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS. RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE BAJA
COAST AS NOTED BY A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. SEAS OFF
THE BAJA COAST ARE CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE
PASS ALONG 122W EARLIER THIS MORNING OBSERVED 8 TO 10 FT SEAS N
OF 25N. THIS IS EVIDENCE OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL INITIALIZED
IN WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SHOW SEAS OFF THE BAJA COAST E TO
120W BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
SHOWING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW. UPPER
DIVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
SITUATED OVER 12N90W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 90W. MODEST TRADE WIND
CONFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. OVERNIGHT LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. OTHERWISE SEAS ARE GENERALLY
3 TO 5 FT IN MOST AREAS...WITH UP TO 6 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL W
OF THE GALAPAGOS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.

W OF 120W...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 132W...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 140W S OF 10N. THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE AREA. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA...AS
NOTED BY AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS AND REPORTS
FROM GERMAN RV SONNE ON STATION NEAR 14N130W. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RECENT DATA
FROM A PAIR OF ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 11N140W
DUE MAINLY TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE MWW3 SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
SWELL DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE
AFFECTED BY A LOW BIAS WRT TO SWELL AND IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE
ECMWF/UKWAVE/GWES SHOWING 8 FT SEAS LINGERING OVER A LARGER AREA
THROUGH 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 115W...DECAYING TO BELOW 8
FT IN MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171526
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 04N120W TO 03N130W TO
06N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W...AND ALSO S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 06N95W TO 05N100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO
07N E OF 90W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THERE IS WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS. RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE BAJA
COAST AS NOTED BY A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. SEAS OFF
THE BAJA COAST ARE CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE
PASS ALONG 122W EARLIER THIS MORNING OBSERVED 8 TO 10 FT SEAS N
OF 25N. THIS IS EVIDENCE OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL INITIALIZED
IN WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SHOW SEAS OFF THE BAJA COAST E TO
120W BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
SHOWING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW. UPPER
DIVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
SITUATED OVER 12N90W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 90W. MODEST TRADE WIND
CONFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. OVERNIGHT LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. OTHERWISE SEAS ARE GENERALLY
3 TO 5 FT IN MOST AREAS...WITH UP TO 6 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL W
OF THE GALAPAGOS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.

W OF 120W...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 132W...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 140W S OF 10N. THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE AREA. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA...AS
NOTED BY AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS AND REPORTS
FROM GERMAN RV SONNE ON STATION NEAR 14N130W. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RECENT DATA
FROM A PAIR OF ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 11N140W
DUE MAINLY TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE MWW3 SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
SWELL DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE
AFFECTED BY A LOW BIAS WRT TO SWELL AND IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE
ECMWF/UKWAVE/GWES SHOWING 8 FT SEAS LINGERING OVER A LARGER AREA
THROUGH 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 115W...DECAYING TO BELOW 8
FT IN MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171526
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 04N120W TO 03N130W TO
06N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W...AND ALSO S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 06N95W TO 05N100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO
07N E OF 90W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THERE IS WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS. RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE BAJA
COAST AS NOTED BY A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. SEAS OFF
THE BAJA COAST ARE CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE
PASS ALONG 122W EARLIER THIS MORNING OBSERVED 8 TO 10 FT SEAS N
OF 25N. THIS IS EVIDENCE OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL INITIALIZED
IN WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SHOW SEAS OFF THE BAJA COAST E TO
120W BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
SHOWING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW. UPPER
DIVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
SITUATED OVER 12N90W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 90W. MODEST TRADE WIND
CONFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. OVERNIGHT LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. OTHERWISE SEAS ARE GENERALLY
3 TO 5 FT IN MOST AREAS...WITH UP TO 6 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL W
OF THE GALAPAGOS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.

W OF 120W...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 132W...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 140W S OF 10N. THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE AREA. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA...AS
NOTED BY AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS AND REPORTS
FROM GERMAN RV SONNE ON STATION NEAR 14N130W. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RECENT DATA
FROM A PAIR OF ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 11N140W
DUE MAINLY TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE MWW3 SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
SWELL DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE
AFFECTED BY A LOW BIAS WRT TO SWELL AND IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE
ECMWF/UKWAVE/GWES SHOWING 8 FT SEAS LINGERING OVER A LARGER AREA
THROUGH 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 115W...DECAYING TO BELOW 8
FT IN MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171526
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 04N120W TO 03N130W TO
06N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W...AND ALSO S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 06N95W TO 05N100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO
07N E OF 90W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THERE IS WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS. RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE BAJA
COAST AS NOTED BY A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. SEAS OFF
THE BAJA COAST ARE CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE
PASS ALONG 122W EARLIER THIS MORNING OBSERVED 8 TO 10 FT SEAS N
OF 25N. THIS IS EVIDENCE OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL INITIALIZED
IN WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SHOW SEAS OFF THE BAJA COAST E TO
120W BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF
120W WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
SHOWING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW. UPPER
DIVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
SITUATED OVER 12N90W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 90W. MODEST TRADE WIND
CONFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. OVERNIGHT LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. OTHERWISE SEAS ARE GENERALLY
3 TO 5 FT IN MOST AREAS...WITH UP TO 6 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL W
OF THE GALAPAGOS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.

W OF 120W...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 132W...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 140W S OF 10N. THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE AREA. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA...AS
NOTED BY AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS AND REPORTS
FROM GERMAN RV SONNE ON STATION NEAR 14N130W. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RECENT DATA
FROM A PAIR OF ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 11N140W
DUE MAINLY TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE MWW3 SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
SWELL DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE
AFFECTED BY A LOW BIAS WRT TO SWELL AND IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE
ECMWF/UKWAVE/GWES SHOWING 8 FT SEAS LINGERING OVER A LARGER AREA
THROUGH 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 115W...DECAYING TO BELOW 8
FT IN MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW
TO 01N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02S TO 03N BETWEEN 18W AND 29W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 07S TO 05N W OF
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA ADJACENT WATERS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT
SW ACROSS NORTHERN-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N83W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N88W. W OF
THE FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N88W TO 27N95W. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH
A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE N-NE GULF SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 94W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER NW GULF. GOES-
GEO COLOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF FOG OVER THE N-NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 88W. SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE ATLC CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
MAINLY S OF 28N. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE EASTERN BASIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE W OF 90W. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND
EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ON PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
A TROUGH TO A BASE N OF 30N...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N44W TO 27N57W TO 28N68W. A 1016 MB
LOW IS OVER GEORGIA ADJACENT WATERS FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N110W TO 02N118W TO 03N126W TO
04N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 135W-138W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 120W-125W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 06N95W TO 04N100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-
97W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-100W.

ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SHIFTING QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM 17N109W TO 26N116W.
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE W AND SW OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYLONE LOCATED NEAR 08N132W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
AS A JET STREAM BRANCH RIDES UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH...AND CUTS NW TO 27N140W...SEWD TO 25N130W 24N120W
AND NEWD FROM THERE TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG SW WINDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE JET STREAM ARE ADVECTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OBSERVED WITHIN 540 NM SE AND S OF THE
JET STREAM BRANCH ENE TO OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FROM 16N TO 26N W OF 132W. THESE CLOUDS THIN OUT AS THEY REACH
119W...THEN THICKEN AGAIN AS THEY APPROACH AND CROSS THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.

OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION...AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
NOTED MOVING WESTWARD ALONG A POSITION FROM 12N97W TO 05N101W TO
02N102W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE MOVING SW IS TO THE NE OF THE
TROUGH NEAR 11N92W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND
THE EASTERN PART OF THE TROUGH COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 08N90W 06N95W TO
04N100W IS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED
WELL N OF THE AREA AT 38N138W WITH A RIDGE SEWD TO 32N134W TO
25N128W TO NEAR 21N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF
114W. A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FRESH NW-N WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM 24N-28N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THIS MORNING AS
THE CULPRIT GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH SAT ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH.

E OF 110W...WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT THROUGH THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SEAS TO 5-
7 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT
WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PANAMA...
EXCEPT PULSING TO 15 KT JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171002
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N110W TO 02N118W TO 03N126W TO
04N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 135W-138W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 120W-125W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 06N95W TO 04N100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-
97W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-100W.

ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SHIFTING QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM 17N109W TO 26N116W.
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE W AND SW OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYLONE LOCATED NEAR 08N132W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
AS A JET STREAM BRANCH RIDES UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH...AND CUTS NW TO 27N140W...SEWD TO 25N130W 24N120W
AND NEWD FROM THERE TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG SW WINDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE JET STREAM ARE ADVECTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OBSERVED WITHIN 540 NM SE AND S OF THE
JET STREAM BRANCH ENE TO OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FROM 16N TO 26N W OF 132W. THESE CLOUDS THIN OUT AS THEY REACH
119W...THEN THICKEN AGAIN AS THEY APPROACH AND CROSS THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.

OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION...AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
NOTED MOVING WESTWARD ALONG A POSITION FROM 12N97W TO 05N101W TO
02N102W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE MOVING SW IS TO THE NE OF THE
TROUGH NEAR 11N92W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND
THE EASTERN PART OF THE TROUGH COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 08N90W 06N95W TO
04N100W IS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED
WELL N OF THE AREA AT 38N138W WITH A RIDGE SEWD TO 32N134W TO
25N128W TO NEAR 21N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF
114W. A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FRESH NW-N WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM 24N-28N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THIS MORNING AS
THE CULPRIT GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES
TO DIMINISH.

E OF 110W...WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT THROUGH THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SEAS TO 5-
7 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT
WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PANAMA...
EXCEPT PULSING TO 15 KT JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171002
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N110W TO 02N118W TO 03N126W TO
04N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 135W-138W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 120W-125W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 06N95W TO 04N100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-
97W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-100W.

ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SHIFTING QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM 17N109W TO 26N116W.
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE W AND SW OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYLONE LOCATED NEAR 08N132W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
AS A JET STREAM BRANCH RIDES UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH...AND CUTS NW TO 27N140W...SEWD TO 25N130W 24N120W
AND NEWD FROM THERE TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG SW WINDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE JET STREAM ARE ADVECTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OBSERVED WITHIN 540 NM SE AND S OF THE
JET STREAM BRANCH ENE TO OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FROM 16N TO 26N W OF 132W. THESE CLOUDS THIN OUT AS THEY REACH
119W...THEN THICKEN AGAIN AS THEY APPROACH AND CROSS THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.

OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION...AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
NOTED MOVING WESTWARD ALONG A POSITION FROM 12N97W TO 05N101W TO
02N102W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE MOVING SW IS TO THE NE OF THE
TROUGH NEAR 11N92W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND
THE EASTERN PART OF THE TROUGH COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 08N90W 06N95W TO
04N100W IS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED
WELL N OF THE AREA AT 38N138W WITH A RIDGE SEWD TO 32N134W TO
25N128W TO NEAR 21N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF
114W. A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FRESH NW-N WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM 24N-28N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THIS MORNING AS
THE CULPRIT GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES
TO DIMINISH.

E OF 110W...WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT THROUGH THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SEAS TO 5-
7 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT
WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PANAMA...
EXCEPT PULSING TO 15 KT JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W SW
TO 05N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 03N WEST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT WATERS
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
NE GULF FROM 28N82W NW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N87W. W OF THE
FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N86W TO 27N93W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE N-NE GULF AND THE SW N
ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER NE
GULF AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-GEO COLOR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF FOG OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT MAINLY S OF 28N. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN THE
NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF 90W.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND
EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
A TROUGH TO A BASE N OF 30N...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 32N45W TO 27N61W TO 28N70W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NW TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR
31N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC N
OF 25N W OF 75W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W SW
TO 05N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 03N WEST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT WATERS
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
NE GULF FROM 28N82W NW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N87W. W OF THE
FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N86W TO 27N93W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE N-NE GULF AND THE SW N
ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER NE
GULF AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-GEO COLOR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF FOG OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT MAINLY S OF 28N. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN THE
NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF 90W.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND
EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
A TROUGH TO A BASE N OF 30N...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 32N45W TO 27N61W TO 28N70W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NW TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR
31N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC N
OF 25N W OF 75W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W SW
TO 05N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 03N WEST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT WATERS
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
NE GULF FROM 28N82W NW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N87W. W OF THE
FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N86W TO 27N93W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE N-NE GULF AND THE SW N
ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER NE
GULF AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-GEO COLOR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF FOG OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT MAINLY S OF 28N. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN THE
NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF 90W.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND
EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
A TROUGH TO A BASE N OF 30N...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 32N45W TO 27N61W TO 28N70W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NW TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR
31N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC N
OF 25N W OF 75W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W SW
TO 05N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 03N WEST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT WATERS
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
NE GULF FROM 28N82W NW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N87W. W OF THE
FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N86W TO 27N93W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE N-NE GULF AND THE SW N
ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER NE
GULF AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-GEO COLOR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF FOG OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT MAINLY S OF 28N. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN THE
NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF 90W.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND
EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
A TROUGH TO A BASE N OF 30N...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 32N45W TO 27N61W TO 28N70W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NW TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR
31N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC N
OF 25N W OF 75W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W SW
TO 05N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 03N WEST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT WATERS
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
NE GULF FROM 28N82W NW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N87W. W OF THE
FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N86W TO 27N93W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE N-NE GULF AND THE SW N
ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER NE
GULF AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-GEO COLOR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF FOG OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT MAINLY S OF 28N. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN THE
NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF 90W.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND
EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
A TROUGH TO A BASE N OF 30N...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 32N45W TO 27N61W TO 28N70W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NW TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR
31N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC N
OF 25N W OF 75W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W SW
TO 05N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 03N WEST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT WATERS
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
NE GULF FROM 28N82W NW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N87W. W OF THE
FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N86W TO 27N93W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE N-NE GULF AND THE SW N
ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER NE
GULF AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-GEO COLOR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF FOG OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT MAINLY S OF 28N. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN THE
NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF 90W.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND
EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
A TROUGH TO A BASE N OF 30N...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 32N45W TO 27N61W TO 28N70W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NW TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR
31N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC N
OF 25N W OF 75W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170242
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N105W TO 02N135W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAKENING 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD
TO AROUND 16N W OF 112W. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS
RELAXING...AND AS A RESULT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION W OF 110W. ASCAT
DATA AT 1842 UTC SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS CENTERED
NEAR 14N130W...AND A LARGER AREA OF FRESH E-NE WINDS FROM 17N TO
20N W OF 135W. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS IS PRODUCING 9
FT SEAS DUE TO NE WIND WAVES AND RESIDUAL NW SWELL. AN AREA OF 9-
10 FT NW SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS EVIDENT FROM ALTIMETER DATA
THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1S30W TO 1S40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 1W-8W...FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 8W-24W...AND
FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT
28N81W TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO N OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
AT 31N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COASTS OF SW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS N OF 28N. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE S OF FRONT AND OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WHILE
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AT 31N78W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N53W TO 29N60W
TO 29N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N70W TO THE LOW
AT 31N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N26W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N36W TO 26N43W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OFF GEORGIA TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1S30W TO 1S40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 1W-8W...FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 8W-24W...AND
FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT
28N81W TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO N OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
AT 31N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COASTS OF SW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS N OF 28N. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE S OF FRONT AND OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WHILE
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AT 31N78W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N53W TO 29N60W
TO 29N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N70W TO THE LOW
AT 31N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N26W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N36W TO 26N43W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OFF GEORGIA TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 162357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1S30W TO 1S40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 1W-8W...FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 8W-24W...AND
FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT
28N81W TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO N OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
AT 31N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COASTS OF SW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS N OF 28N. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE S OF FRONT AND OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WHILE
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AT 31N78W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N53W TO 29N60W
TO 29N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N70W TO THE LOW
AT 31N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N26W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N36W TO 26N43W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OFF GEORGIA TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1S30W TO 1S40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 1W-8W...FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 8W-24W...AND
FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT
28N81W TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO N OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
AT 31N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COASTS OF SW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS N OF 28N. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE S OF FRONT AND OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WHILE
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AT 31N78W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N53W TO 29N60W
TO 29N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N70W TO THE LOW
AT 31N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N26W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N36W TO 26N43W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OFF GEORGIA TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1S30W TO 1S40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 1W-8W...FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 8W-24W...AND
FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT
28N81W TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO N OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
AT 31N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COASTS OF SW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS N OF 28N. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE S OF FRONT AND OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WHILE
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AT 31N78W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N53W TO 29N60W
TO 29N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N70W TO THE LOW
AT 31N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N26W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N36W TO 26N43W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OFF GEORGIA TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1S30W TO 1S40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 1W-8W...FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 8W-24W...AND
FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT
28N81W TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO N OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
AT 31N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COASTS OF SW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS N OF 28N. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE S OF FRONT AND OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WHILE
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AT 31N78W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N53W TO 29N60W
TO 29N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N70W TO THE LOW
AT 31N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N26W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N36W TO 26N43W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OFF GEORGIA TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162120
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1500 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N105W TO 02N134W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ARE NOTED...FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 124W
AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAKENING 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 20N W OF 117W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE
DEEP TROPICS IS RELAXING...AND AS A RESULT SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION W
OF 110W. ASCAT DATA AT 1842 UTC SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE
WINDS CENTERED NEAR 14N130W...AND A LARGER AREA OF FRESH E-NE
WINDS FROM 17N TO 20N W OF 135W. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE
WINDS IS PRODUCING 9 FT SEAS DUE TO NE WIND WAVES AND RESIDUAL
NW SWELL. AN AREA OF 9-11 FT NW SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS EVIDENT
FROM ALTIMETER DATA THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 161745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W ALONG 5N16W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S FLORIDA WITH NEAR ZONAL W-SW FLOW OVER THE
NE GULF. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF
WATERS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC TO OVER THE NE FLORIDA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CAPE CANAVERAL TO
TAMPA BAY INTO THE GULF TO 24N76W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW GULF 27N87W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST S OF CORPUS
CHRISTI. A THIRD WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF
EXTENDING ALONG 94W FROM 24N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-92W AND WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE COAST FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO FREEPORT TEXAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N E OF 86W TO OVER FLORIDA. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND THEN WILL
SHIFT W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THEN MOVE NW ACROSS
SW GULF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA
TO PANAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE SE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HAITI...AND JAMAICA LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER HAITI. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA ENHANCING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E TO OVER PUERTO RICO BY FRI. THE
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN SHIFT E TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 16/1500 UTC ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W ALONG
30N62W TO 30N7W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A 1018 MB LOW
NEAR 32N77W. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO INLAND
OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N79W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF FLORIDA. A MID LEVEL LOW IS NE OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 24N60W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
27N57W ALONG 24N60W TO 21N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS SE OF THE
FRONT AND IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1021 MB
HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 26N66W AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE E
ATLC NEAR 24N44W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N55W
ALONG 28N65W TO THE CAROLINAS BY FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND
DRIFTING N OUT OF AREA EARLY SAT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT E AND WEAKEN MORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W ALONG 5N16W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S FLORIDA WITH NEAR ZONAL W-SW FLOW OVER THE
NE GULF. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF
WATERS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC TO OVER THE NE FLORIDA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CAPE CANAVERAL TO
TAMPA BAY INTO THE GULF TO 24N76W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW GULF 27N87W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST S OF CORPUS
CHRISTI. A THIRD WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF
EXTENDING ALONG 94W FROM 24N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-92W AND WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE COAST FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO FREEPORT TEXAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N E OF 86W TO OVER FLORIDA. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND THEN WILL
SHIFT W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THEN MOVE NW ACROSS
SW GULF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA
TO PANAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE SE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HAITI...AND JAMAICA LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER HAITI. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA ENHANCING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E TO OVER PUERTO RICO BY FRI. THE
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN SHIFT E TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 16/1500 UTC ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W ALONG
30N62W TO 30N7W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A 1018 MB LOW
NEAR 32N77W. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO INLAND
OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N79W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF FLORIDA. A MID LEVEL LOW IS NE OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 24N60W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
27N57W ALONG 24N60W TO 21N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS SE OF THE
FRONT AND IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1021 MB
HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 26N66W AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE E
ATLC NEAR 24N44W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N55W
ALONG 28N65W TO THE CAROLINAS BY FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND
DRIFTING N OUT OF AREA EARLY SAT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT E AND WEAKEN MORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161506
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N103W TO 02N125W TO 00N139W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

LOW PRESSURE AT 1010 MB IS NEAR 04.5N92.5W 1010 MB WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 08N85W TO THE LOW TO 03N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
80W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND ALSO
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
FROM 32N136W TO 20N120W TO 14N100W. MEANWHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE-S INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS
N OF 24N W OF 117W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FRESH TRADE WINDS OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS
MEASURED BY RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF AREA YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE EXITED TO THE E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS WHICH WILL BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE GULF N OF 29N BY FRI AS TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS OF 2 FT
OR LESS. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE NW-N WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF...LOCALLY TO FRESH TODAY. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3-5
FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

E OF 110W...WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULFS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PANAMA...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15 KT
JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161506
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N103W TO 02N125W TO 00N139W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

LOW PRESSURE AT 1010 MB IS NEAR 04.5N92.5W 1010 MB WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 08N85W TO THE LOW TO 03N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
80W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND ALSO
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
FROM 32N136W TO 20N120W TO 14N100W. MEANWHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE-S INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS
N OF 24N W OF 117W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FRESH TRADE WINDS OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS
MEASURED BY RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF AREA YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE EXITED TO THE E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS WHICH WILL BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE GULF N OF 29N BY FRI AS TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS OF 2 FT
OR LESS. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE NW-N WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF...LOCALLY TO FRESH TODAY. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3-5
FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

E OF 110W...WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULFS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PANAMA...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15 KT
JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161506
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N103W TO 02N125W TO 00N139W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

LOW PRESSURE AT 1010 MB IS NEAR 04.5N92.5W 1010 MB WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 08N85W TO THE LOW TO 03N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
80W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND ALSO
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
FROM 32N136W TO 20N120W TO 14N100W. MEANWHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE-S INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS
N OF 24N W OF 117W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FRESH TRADE WINDS OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS
MEASURED BY RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF AREA YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE EXITED TO THE E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS WHICH WILL BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE GULF N OF 29N BY FRI AS TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS OF 2 FT
OR LESS. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE NW-N WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF...LOCALLY TO FRESH TODAY. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3-5
FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

E OF 110W...WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULFS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PANAMA...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15 KT
JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161506
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N103W TO 02N125W TO 00N139W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

LOW PRESSURE AT 1010 MB IS NEAR 04.5N92.5W 1010 MB WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 08N85W TO THE LOW TO 03N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
80W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND ALSO
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
FROM 32N136W TO 20N120W TO 14N100W. MEANWHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE-S INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS
N OF 24N W OF 117W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FRESH TRADE WINDS OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS
MEASURED BY RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF AREA YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE EXITED TO THE E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS WHICH WILL BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE GULF N OF 29N BY FRI AS TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS OF 2 FT
OR LESS. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE NW-N WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF...LOCALLY TO FRESH TODAY. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3-5
FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

E OF 110W...WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULFS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PANAMA...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15 KT
JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161506
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N103W TO 02N125W TO 00N139W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

LOW PRESSURE AT 1010 MB IS NEAR 04.5N92.5W 1010 MB WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 08N85W TO THE LOW TO 03N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
80W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND ALSO
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
FROM 32N136W TO 20N120W TO 14N100W. MEANWHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE-S INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS
N OF 24N W OF 117W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FRESH TRADE WINDS OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS
MEASURED BY RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF AREA YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE EXITED TO THE E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS WHICH WILL BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE GULF N OF 29N BY FRI AS TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS OF 2 FT
OR LESS. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE NW-N WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF...LOCALLY TO FRESH TODAY. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3-5
FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

E OF 110W...WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULFS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PANAMA...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15 KT
JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161506
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N103W TO 02N125W TO 00N139W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

LOW PRESSURE AT 1010 MB IS NEAR 04.5N92.5W 1010 MB WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 08N85W TO THE LOW TO 03N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
80W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND ALSO
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
FROM 32N136W TO 20N120W TO 14N100W. MEANWHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE-S INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS
N OF 24N W OF 117W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FRESH TRADE WINDS OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS
MEASURED BY RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF AREA YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE EXITED TO THE E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS WHICH WILL BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE GULF N OF 29N BY FRI AS TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS OF 2 FT
OR LESS. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE NW-N WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF...LOCALLY TO FRESH TODAY. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3-5
FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

E OF 110W...WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULFS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PANAMA...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15 KT
JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W SW
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO 05N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 07N W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 25N. CONVECTION ON THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W TO
26N95W TO 21N97W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH S OF 25N. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED
BY A HIGH NW OF VERMONT AND ANOTHER HIGH ON THE SW N ATLC
EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE
WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT. SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE
TROUGHING AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 65W AND 79W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF A SHORT-WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N77W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO
JACKSONVILLE WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-SE ALONG 30N72W
TO 31N64W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 74W IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THREE SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ALL LACKING CONVECTION. THE
FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 24N59W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 29N44W. A THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 26N36W TO
21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 161041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W SW
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO 05N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 07N W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 25N. CONVECTION ON THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W TO
26N95W TO 21N97W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH S OF 25N. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED
BY A HIGH NW OF VERMONT AND ANOTHER HIGH ON THE SW N ATLC
EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE
WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT. SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE
TROUGHING AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 65W AND 79W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF A SHORT-WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N77W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO
JACKSONVILLE WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-SE ALONG 30N72W
TO 31N64W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 74W IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THREE SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ALL LACKING CONVECTION. THE
FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 24N59W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 29N44W. A THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 26N36W TO
21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W SW
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO 05N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 07N W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 25N. CONVECTION ON THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W TO
26N95W TO 21N97W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH S OF 25N. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED
BY A HIGH NW OF VERMONT AND ANOTHER HIGH ON THE SW N ATLC
EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE
WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT. SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE
TROUGHING AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 65W AND 79W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF A SHORT-WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N77W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO
JACKSONVILLE WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-SE ALONG 30N72W
TO 31N64W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 74W IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THREE SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ALL LACKING CONVECTION. THE
FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 24N59W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 29N44W. A THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 26N36W TO
21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160918
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10405 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

TROUGH FROM 6N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR 4N92W 1011 MB TO N100W. ITCZ
FROM 2N102W TO TO 1N135W TO 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-6W BETWEEN 80W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N134W TO 21N132W.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A 100-120 KT
JETSTREAM EXTENDING FROM 22N140W TO 18N129W. A 95-115 KT JET IS
FROM 23N118W TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 10N107W WITH RIDGE TO SOUTHERN MEXICO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS
N OF 25N W OF 115W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ARE N OF 115N W OF
113W. STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ARE GENERATING LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL...PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD
INTO AREA N OF 25N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH NORTHERLY SWELL
SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W SW
TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 08N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG 29N91W TO 26N95W TO 22N98W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT.
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
13N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N76W SW TO GRAND BAHAMA.
TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...BOTH LACKING
CONVECTION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS REMNANTS OF A FORMER STATIONARY
FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 30N39W TO 26N49W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W SW
TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 08N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG 29N91W TO 26N95W TO 22N98W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT.
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
13N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N76W SW TO GRAND BAHAMA.
TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...BOTH LACKING
CONVECTION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS REMNANTS OF A FORMER STATIONARY
FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 30N39W TO 26N49W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W SW
TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 08N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG 29N91W TO 26N95W TO 22N98W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT.
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
13N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N76W SW TO GRAND BAHAMA.
TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...BOTH LACKING
CONVECTION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS REMNANTS OF A FORMER STATIONARY
FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 30N39W TO 26N49W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W SW
TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 08N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG 29N91W TO 26N95W TO 22N98W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT.
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
13N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N76W SW TO GRAND BAHAMA.
TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...BOTH LACKING
CONVECTION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS REMNANTS OF A FORMER STATIONARY
FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 30N39W TO 26N49W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W SW
TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 08N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG 29N91W TO 26N95W TO 22N98W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT.
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
13N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N76W SW TO GRAND BAHAMA.
TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...BOTH LACKING
CONVECTION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS REMNANTS OF A FORMER STATIONARY
FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 30N39W TO 26N49W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W SW
TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 08N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG 29N91W TO 26N95W TO 22N98W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT.
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
13N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N76W SW TO GRAND BAHAMA.
TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...BOTH LACKING
CONVECTION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS REMNANTS OF A FORMER STATIONARY
FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 30N39W TO 26N49W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160236
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

TROUGH FROM LOW PRES NEAR 03N91W 1010 MB TO 03N100W...THEN ITCZ
TO 04N109W TO 03N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 135 NM OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 22N W OF 120W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE
GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL...PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO
WATERS N OF 25N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160236
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

TROUGH FROM LOW PRES NEAR 03N91W 1010 MB TO 03N100W...THEN ITCZ
TO 04N109W TO 03N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 135 NM OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 22N W OF 120W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE
GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL...PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO
WATERS N OF 25N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160236
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

TROUGH FROM LOW PRES NEAR 03N91W 1010 MB TO 03N100W...THEN ITCZ
TO 04N109W TO 03N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 135 NM OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 22N W OF 120W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE
GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL...PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO
WATERS N OF 25N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160236
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

TROUGH FROM LOW PRES NEAR 03N91W 1010 MB TO 03N100W...THEN ITCZ
TO 04N109W TO 03N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 135 NM OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 22N W OF 120W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE
GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL...PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO
WATERS N OF 25N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152121 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE PRIMARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N100W TO 04N109W TO 03N120W
TO 04N140W. A SECONDARY ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.4S94W TO 01S106W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 22N W OF 120W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE
GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL...PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO
WATERS N OF 25N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND A FRONT N
OF 30N THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152121
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE PRIMARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N100W TO 04N109W TO 03N120W
TO 04N140W. A SECONDARY ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.4S94W TO 01S106W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 22N W OF 120W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE
GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL...PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO
WATERS N OF 25N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT N OF
30N THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152121
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE PRIMARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N100W TO 04N109W TO 03N120W
TO 04N140W. A SECONDARY ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.4S94W TO 01S106W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 22N W OF 120W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE
GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL...PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO
WATERS N OF 25N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT N OF
30N THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 151744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W SW
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 01N32W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N
TO 07N BETWEEN 11W AND 24W...AND FROM 03S TO 04N BETWEEN 32W AND
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 30N93W TO 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N92W TO 21N96W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND
98W. WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ARE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KT. VARIABLE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND TROUGH.
EAST OF THESE TWO FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC HAS AN
AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS PROVIDES S TO SE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...REMNANT
MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WITH A PERIPHERY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS TRADE WIND FLOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE AN AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND AN AREA WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE OCCURRING IN
THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE MAINLY N OF 15N. LITTLE CHANGE
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFFSHORE THE FL COAST FROM 31N79W TO
28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SPLITS RIDGING THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N39W TO 29N47W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 29N57W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N44W TO 27N52W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE FRONTS AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT IS VOID OF ANY CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 29N37W TO
23N37W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 151744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W SW
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 01N32W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N
TO 07N BETWEEN 11W AND 24W...AND FROM 03S TO 04N BETWEEN 32W AND
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 30N93W TO 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N92W TO 21N96W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND
98W. WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ARE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KT. VARIABLE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND TROUGH.
EAST OF THESE TWO FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC HAS AN
AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS PROVIDES S TO SE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...REMNANT
MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WITH A PERIPHERY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS TRADE WIND FLOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE AN AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND AN AREA WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE OCCURRING IN
THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE MAINLY N OF 15N. LITTLE CHANGE
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFFSHORE THE FL COAST FROM 31N79W TO
28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SPLITS RIDGING THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N39W TO 29N47W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 29N57W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N44W TO 27N52W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE FRONTS AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT IS VOID OF ANY CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 29N37W TO
23N37W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 151744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W SW
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 01N32W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N
TO 07N BETWEEN 11W AND 24W...AND FROM 03S TO 04N BETWEEN 32W AND
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 30N93W TO 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N92W TO 21N96W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND
98W. WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ARE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KT. VARIABLE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND TROUGH.
EAST OF THESE TWO FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC HAS AN
AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS PROVIDES S TO SE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...REMNANT
MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WITH A PERIPHERY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS TRADE WIND FLOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE AN AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND AN AREA WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE OCCURRING IN
THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE MAINLY N OF 15N. LITTLE CHANGE
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFFSHORE THE FL COAST FROM 31N79W TO
28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SPLITS RIDGING THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N39W TO 29N47W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 29N57W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N44W TO 27N52W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE FRONTS AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT IS VOID OF ANY CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 29N37W TO
23N37W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 151744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W SW
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 01N32W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N
TO 07N BETWEEN 11W AND 24W...AND FROM 03S TO 04N BETWEEN 32W AND
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 30N93W TO 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N92W TO 21N96W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND
98W. WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ARE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KT. VARIABLE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND TROUGH.
EAST OF THESE TWO FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC HAS AN
AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS PROVIDES S TO SE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...REMNANT
MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WITH A PERIPHERY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS TRADE WIND FLOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE AN AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND AN AREA WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE OCCURRING IN
THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE MAINLY N OF 15N. LITTLE CHANGE
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFFSHORE THE FL COAST FROM 31N79W TO
28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SPLITS RIDGING THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N39W TO 29N47W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 29N57W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N44W TO 27N52W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE FRONTS AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT IS VOID OF ANY CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 29N37W TO
23N37W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE PRIMARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N103W TO 04N125W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 136W. THE SECONDARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03.4S89W TO 01S98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75
NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 101W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1036 MB LOCATED NEAR 39N134W EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SE THROUGH 32N130W TO 21N114W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTS WHERE GALE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS
MANAGING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS N
OF 25N W OF 116W...WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ALSO SNEAKING INTO THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS.
THE RIDGE AND SUPPORTING HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES
TO DIMINISH WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST S OF THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVING MOVED
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ARRIVED N OF 30.5N W OF 114W WHICH WILL SPREAD TO THE AREA N OF
30N BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THE
EVENING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

E OF 110W...NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT WILL PREVAIL.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE PRIMARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N103W TO 04N125W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 136W. THE SECONDARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03.4S89W TO 01S98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75
NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 101W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1036 MB LOCATED NEAR 39N134W EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SE THROUGH 32N130W TO 21N114W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTS WHERE GALE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS
MANAGING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS N
OF 25N W OF 116W...WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ALSO SNEAKING INTO THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS.
THE RIDGE AND SUPPORTING HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES
TO DIMINISH WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST S OF THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVING MOVED
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ARRIVED N OF 30.5N W OF 114W WHICH WILL SPREAD TO THE AREA N OF
30N BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THE
EVENING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

E OF 110W...NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT WILL PREVAIL.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE PRIMARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N103W TO 04N125W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 136W. THE SECONDARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03.4S89W TO 01S98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75
NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 101W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1036 MB LOCATED NEAR 39N134W EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SE THROUGH 32N130W TO 21N114W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTS WHERE GALE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS
MANAGING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS N
OF 25N W OF 116W...WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ALSO SNEAKING INTO THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS.
THE RIDGE AND SUPPORTING HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES
TO DIMINISH WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST S OF THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVING MOVED
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ARRIVED N OF 30.5N W OF 114W WHICH WILL SPREAD TO THE AREA N OF
30N BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THE
EVENING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

E OF 110W...NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT WILL PREVAIL.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE PRIMARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N103W TO 04N125W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 136W. THE SECONDARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03.4S89W TO 01S98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75
NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 101W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1036 MB LOCATED NEAR 39N134W EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SE THROUGH 32N130W TO 21N114W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTS WHERE GALE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS
MANAGING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS N
OF 25N W OF 116W...WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ALSO SNEAKING INTO THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS.
THE RIDGE AND SUPPORTING HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES
TO DIMINISH WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST S OF THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVING MOVED
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ARRIVED N OF 30.5N W OF 114W WHICH WILL SPREAD TO THE AREA N OF
30N BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THE
EVENING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

E OF 110W...NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT WILL PREVAIL.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE PRIMARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N103W TO 04N125W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 136W. THE SECONDARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03.4S89W TO 01S98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75
NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 101W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1036 MB LOCATED NEAR 39N134W EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SE THROUGH 32N130W TO 21N114W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTS WHERE GALE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS
MANAGING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS N
OF 25N W OF 116W...WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ALSO SNEAKING INTO THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS.
THE RIDGE AND SUPPORTING HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES
TO DIMINISH WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST S OF THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVING MOVED
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ARRIVED N OF 30.5N W OF 114W WHICH WILL SPREAD TO THE AREA N OF
30N BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THE
EVENING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

E OF 110W...NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT WILL PREVAIL.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 151025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW
TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S24W TO
02S32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 06N E OF
22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 06N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KANSAS TO A
BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW OVER NW
LOUISIANA FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N93W SW
TO 26N95W TO 23N97W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND A LINE FROM 29N84W SW TO 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY
A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W AND SHALLOW DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER E-SE GULF. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KT DOMINATE BASIN-WIDE...EXCEPT ON THE SW GULF AROUND THE
ENVIRONMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N92W TO 17N93W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY
LEAVING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W GULF WHILE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
PORTIONS OF THE W GULF THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1009 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
HAITI...THUS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N73W TO 17N75W. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY...WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING WHEN A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE N-NE ATLC EXTENDS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH SW OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN TO A BASE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT FROM 30N42W TO 29N46W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N51W TO 29N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A WEAK TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 30N39W TO 25N38W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 38N48W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
31N33W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY LEAVING
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 151025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW
TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S24W TO
02S32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 06N E OF
22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 06N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KANSAS TO A
BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW OVER NW
LOUISIANA FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N93W SW
TO 26N95W TO 23N97W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND A LINE FROM 29N84W SW TO 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY
A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W AND SHALLOW DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER E-SE GULF. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KT DOMINATE BASIN-WIDE...EXCEPT ON THE SW GULF AROUND THE
ENVIRONMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N92W TO 17N93W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY
LEAVING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W GULF WHILE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
PORTIONS OF THE W GULF THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1009 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
HAITI...THUS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N73W TO 17N75W. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY...WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING WHEN A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE N-NE ATLC EXTENDS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH SW OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN TO A BASE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT FROM 30N42W TO 29N46W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N51W TO 29N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A WEAK TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 30N39W TO 25N38W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 38N48W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
31N33W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY LEAVING
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 151025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW
TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S24W TO
02S32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 06N E OF
22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 06N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KANSAS TO A
BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW OVER NW
LOUISIANA FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N93W SW
TO 26N95W TO 23N97W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND A LINE FROM 29N84W SW TO 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY
A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W AND SHALLOW DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER E-SE GULF. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KT DOMINATE BASIN-WIDE...EXCEPT ON THE SW GULF AROUND THE
ENVIRONMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N92W TO 17N93W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY
LEAVING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W GULF WHILE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
PORTIONS OF THE W GULF THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1009 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
HAITI...THUS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N73W TO 17N75W. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY...WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING WHEN A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE N-NE ATLC EXTENDS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH SW OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN TO A BASE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT FROM 30N42W TO 29N46W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N51W TO 29N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A WEAK TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 30N39W TO 25N38W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 38N48W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
31N33W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY LEAVING
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 151025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW
TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S24W TO
02S32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 06N E OF
22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 06N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KANSAS TO A
BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW OVER NW
LOUISIANA FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N93W SW
TO 26N95W TO 23N97W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND A LINE FROM 29N84W SW TO 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY
A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W AND SHALLOW DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER E-SE GULF. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KT DOMINATE BASIN-WIDE...EXCEPT ON THE SW GULF AROUND THE
ENVIRONMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N92W TO 17N93W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY
LEAVING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W GULF WHILE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
PORTIONS OF THE W GULF THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1009 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
HAITI...THUS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N73W TO 17N75W. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY...WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING WHEN A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE N-NE ATLC EXTENDS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH SW OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN TO A BASE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT FROM 30N42W TO 29N46W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N51W TO 29N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A WEAK TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 30N39W TO 25N38W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 38N48W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
31N33W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY LEAVING
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150914
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

PRIMARY ITCZ FROM 5N100W TO 4N130W TO 2N140W. SECONDARY ITCZ
3.4SN190W TO 1S113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR N PORTION OF EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N117W TO 28N140W. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N. A 95-110 KT
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 22N140W TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 10N108W WITH RIDGE TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO  STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 25N W OF 115W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. A 1010 MB SURFACE TROUGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 4N89W WITH TROUGH FROM LOW TO 4N96W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 89W-93W. NW
SWELL IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA N
OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W. ALSO ANOTHER AREA OF 8-9 FT NW
SWELL IS FROM 15N-25N W OF 130W. ON WED 8-10 FT NW SWELL WILL BE
N OF 25N W OF 117W AND 8-9 FT FROM 15N-25N W OF 130W.

$$
DGS




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