Home > Products > National Data >
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101153 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101153 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101153 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 101116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO 22N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W
OF 77W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 FT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
AHEAD OF IT LATER TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PULSING AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1027 MB HIGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY EARLY THU.
FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS
LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N. LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE
FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN
WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC MOVES NE...THUS REDUCING THE PRES
GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
18N82W TO WESTERN HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 19N. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ARE AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY
THU MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SE AND WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER
TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN HAITI AS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT LATER TODAY AND WILL
STALL THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING AND THU
NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO
22N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF 77W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO
THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 20N73W THEN
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN
BOTH BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF 65W...ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N
WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW N
ATLC AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
AHEAD OF IT WED NIGHT WHILE BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRES COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WILL MOVE WEST. THIS SCENARIO WILL
INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1028 MB HIGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF FREQUENT
GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE
BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES NE...THUS
REDUCING THE PRES GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
16N82W...ACROSS HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS...ACROSS SOUTHERN BELIZE
TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO
NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE
FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 18N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE
AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER THE NW ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT WED NIGHT. SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND WED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO
21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT
AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15
FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED
NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 20N73W THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 65W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N
WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW N
ATLC AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
AHEAD OF IT WED NIGHT WHILE BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRES COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WILL MOVE WEST. THIS SCENARIO WILL
INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1028 MB HIGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF FREQUENT
GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE
BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES NE...THUS
REDUCING THE PRES GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
16N82W...ACROSS HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS...ACROSS SOUTHERN BELIZE
TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO
NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE
FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 18N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE
AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER THE NW ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT WED NIGHT. SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND WED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO
21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT
AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15
FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED
NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 20N73W THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 65W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N
WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW N
ATLC AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
AHEAD OF IT WED NIGHT WHILE BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRES COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WILL MOVE WEST. THIS SCENARIO WILL
INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1028 MB HIGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF FREQUENT
GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE
BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES NE...THUS
REDUCING THE PRES GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
16N82W...ACROSS HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS...ACROSS SOUTHERN BELIZE
TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO
NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE
FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 18N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE
AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER THE NW ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT WED NIGHT. SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND WED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO
21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT
AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15
FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED
NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 20N73W THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 65W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG
GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S
MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE
EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04-10N BETWEEN 90-105W ON WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING
TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N85W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 03N97W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N110W...SW TO
01N125W...THEN W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07N85W TO 05N104W TO 07N110W TO 07N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 20N W OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE
EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 24N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN MODERATE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 125W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR
32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG
GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S
MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE
EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04-10N BETWEEN 90-105W ON WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING
TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N85W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 03N97W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N110W...SW TO
01N125W...THEN W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07N85W TO 05N104W TO 07N110W TO 07N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 20N W OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE
EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 24N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN MODERATE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 125W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR
32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG
GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S
MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE
EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04-10N BETWEEN 90-105W ON WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING
TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N85W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 03N97W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N110W...SW TO
01N125W...THEN W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07N85W TO 05N104W TO 07N110W TO 07N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 20N W OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE
EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 24N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN MODERATE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 125W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR
32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO 23N80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS BEEN
SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE SAME COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IS ALSO REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO 21N97W. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MAINLY N OF 28N
AND E OF 87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY
PULSING BACK TO GALE FORCE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N34W ENDING OVER THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ
MAINLY W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO
21N97W. ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N99W.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NE GULF...PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING
SE AWAY FROM THE BASIN. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE A
TAD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 20N73W TO 16N79W TO 09N81W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 80W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO
23N80W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO
20N74W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SURROUNDING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE
FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES AND W
OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE
WINDS/BUILDING SEAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO 23N80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS BEEN
SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE SAME COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IS ALSO REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO 21N97W. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MAINLY N OF 28N
AND E OF 87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY
PULSING BACK TO GALE FORCE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N34W ENDING OVER THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ
MAINLY W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO
21N97W. ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N99W.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NE GULF...PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING
SE AWAY FROM THE BASIN. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE A
TAD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 20N73W TO 16N79W TO 09N81W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 80W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO
23N80W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO
20N74W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SURROUNDING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE
FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES AND W
OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE
WINDS/BUILDING SEAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU
MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON
THU EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A
LITTLE INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH
EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S MERGING WITH ENE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 04-10N BETWEEN 90-
105W ON WED NIGHT WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE
WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO
ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N89W
AND WIGGLES SW TO 04N103W...THEN NW TO 06N110W...SW TO 04N120W...
NW AGAIN TO 06N130W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N90W TO 07N105W TO 03N114W TO
06N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N W
OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-
107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TO THE E OF 97W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRESH NW WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS N OF 24N. MODERATE NW FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 130W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT REACHING
NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU
MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON
THU EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A
LITTLE INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH
EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S MERGING WITH ENE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 04-10N BETWEEN 90-
105W ON WED NIGHT WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE
WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO
ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N89W
AND WIGGLES SW TO 04N103W...THEN NW TO 06N110W...SW TO 04N120W...
NW AGAIN TO 06N130W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N90W TO 07N105W TO 03N114W TO
06N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N W
OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-
107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TO THE E OF 97W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRESH NW WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS N OF 24N. MODERATE NW FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 130W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT REACHING
NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N73W
ALONG 27N77W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF
27N WITHIN 270 NM W OF FRONT AND N OF 27N WITHIN 540 NM E OF
FRONT. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CONTINUING THROUGH WED
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC IS
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE N OF 27N E OF 87W THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING
THEN PULSE AGAIN THU EVENING ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N28W 1N41W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 47W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC AND N GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NEAR 21N90W TO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
THE GULF S OF LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE GULF IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NE
MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W OVER
THE E TIP OF JAMAICA THEN S ALONG 12N81W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA
NEAR 9N81W. BROKEN TO OVER LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF
SAINT LUCIA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY THU. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT ON WED
NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STALL OVER W HAITI TONIGHT INTO
WED. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL GIVE
THE ISLAND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
LATE WED INTO THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W ALONG
27N77W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF
THE FRONT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT TO
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. A
REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N56W ALONG 29N62W TO 22N66W THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF
THE AZORES AND W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THU
NIGHT. GALES WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF
29N THROUGH WED. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N73W
ALONG 27N77W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF
27N WITHIN 270 NM W OF FRONT AND N OF 27N WITHIN 540 NM E OF
FRONT. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CONTINUING THROUGH WED
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC IS
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE N OF 27N E OF 87W THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING
THEN PULSE AGAIN THU EVENING ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N28W 1N41W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 47W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC AND N GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NEAR 21N90W TO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
THE GULF S OF LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE GULF IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NE
MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W OVER
THE E TIP OF JAMAICA THEN S ALONG 12N81W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA
NEAR 9N81W. BROKEN TO OVER LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF
SAINT LUCIA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY THU. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT ON WED
NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STALL OVER W HAITI TONIGHT INTO
WED. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL GIVE
THE ISLAND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
LATE WED INTO THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W ALONG
27N77W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF
THE FRONT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT TO
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. A
REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N56W ALONG 29N62W TO 22N66W THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF
THE AZORES AND W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THU
NIGHT. GALES WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF
29N THROUGH WED. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N73W
ALONG 27N77W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF
27N WITHIN 270 NM W OF FRONT AND N OF 27N WITHIN 540 NM E OF
FRONT. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CONTINUING THROUGH WED
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC IS
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE N OF 27N E OF 87W THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING
THEN PULSE AGAIN THU EVENING ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N28W 1N41W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 47W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC AND N GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NEAR 21N90W TO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
THE GULF S OF LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE GULF IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NE
MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W OVER
THE E TIP OF JAMAICA THEN S ALONG 12N81W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA
NEAR 9N81W. BROKEN TO OVER LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF
SAINT LUCIA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY THU. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT ON WED
NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STALL OVER W HAITI TONIGHT INTO
WED. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL GIVE
THE ISLAND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
LATE WED INTO THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W ALONG
27N77W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF
THE FRONT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT TO
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. A
REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N56W ALONG 29N62W TO 22N66W THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF
THE AZORES AND W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THU
NIGHT. GALES WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF
29N THROUGH WED. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091507
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S-SE ALONG THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE PRESENTLY STORM FORCE AND WILL DIMINISH TO
BELOW STORM FORCE LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY APPROACH
50 KT AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF
THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO 18-20 FT. EXPECT
STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL
MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT
TO CREATE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W
THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
PRODUCING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO AREA DUE TO
MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW PEAKING IN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE EACH LATE NIGHT/ EARLY MORNING
OTHERWISE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS E
OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA. THIS PROLONGED STRONG
GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT
SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 90W-
110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 05N104W TO 04N120W TO 06N128W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 100W AND 108W... AND FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 108W AND
132W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG NW WINDS GENERALLY N OF 30N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. THE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ITCZ REGION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS RANGING FROM 8 FT
TO 13 FT AT THE NW CORNER NEAR 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A NEW FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NW CORNER ON THU WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS HOWEVER NW SWELL WILL
REMAIN 10 TO 15 FT.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N BETWEEN 78W-82W THROUGH MID-
WEEK WITH MAX SEAS REACHING TO 9 FT.

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 091116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...A CENTER OF LOW PRES IS OVER NORTH CAROLINA
ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 36N74W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW
TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT WITH
SEAS FROM 11 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY
WED MORNING...HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE OVER ATLC WATERS NE
OF HISPANIOLA EARLY THU MORNING. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST S
OF 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W THU MORNING WITH WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 11 TO 12 FT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A CENTER OF LOW PRES IS OVER NORTH
CAROLINA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 36N74W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 25N81W TO 22N90W TO 20N96W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT
SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF
87W...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY WED MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W
TO 04N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO
01S51W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 12W
AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE HALF EASTERN U.S. AND THE
NW ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A CENTER OF LOW PRES OVER
NORTH CAROLINA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 36N74W FROM WHICH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N81W TO 22N90W TO 20N96W. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND
IT SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF 87W.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TROPICAL
WATERS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING...LEAVING IT
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER NW WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 978 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 43N59W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N56W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO NORTHERN PANAMA
ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 10N81W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 19N TO 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 63W
AND 78W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT PROVIDE STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER EASTERN BASIN. THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE OVER ATLC WATERS NE
OF HISPANIOLA EARLY THU MORNING. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST S
OF 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W THU MORNING WITH WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 11 TO 12 FT.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS IS FORECAST TO STALL THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING
TUE AND WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 978 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 43N59W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N57W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY SW TO 23N64W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO
NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT. A CENTER OF
LOW PRES IS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 36N74W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
25N80W...THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 11 TO 15 FT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W
OF 60W. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
START DISSIPATING WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERED THE SW N ATLC EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090943
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S-SE ALONG THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM
FORCE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO BELOW STORM
FORCE LEVELS BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE
NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO 18-20 FT. EXPECT STRONG
GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE
SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE
WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO
CREATE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W
THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
PRODUCING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO AREA DUE TO
MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW PEAKING IN INTENSITY THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE EACH LATE NIGHT/
EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH BRIEF
PERIODS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA.
THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S
OF 12N BETWEEN 90W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 05N104W TO 04N114W TO 05N130W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO 02N121W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG NW WINDS GENERALLY N OF 30N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. THE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE EVENING.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ITCZ REGION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS RANGING FROM 8 FT
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT TO 13 FT AT THE NW CORNER NEAR
30N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN IN THE FAR
NW PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W THROUGH LATE TUE...AND
DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY LATE WED.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N BETWEEN 78W-82W THROUGH MID-
WEEK WITH MAX SEAS REACHING TO 9 FT.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090943
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S-SE ALONG THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM
FORCE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO BELOW STORM
FORCE LEVELS BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE
NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO 18-20 FT. EXPECT STRONG
GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE
SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE
WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO
CREATE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W
THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
PRODUCING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO AREA DUE TO
MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW PEAKING IN INTENSITY THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE EACH LATE NIGHT/
EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH BRIEF
PERIODS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA.
THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S
OF 12N BETWEEN 90W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 05N104W TO 04N114W TO 05N130W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO 02N121W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG NW WINDS GENERALLY N OF 30N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. THE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE EVENING.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ITCZ REGION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS RANGING FROM 8 FT
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT TO 13 FT AT THE NW CORNER NEAR
30N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN IN THE FAR
NW PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W THROUGH LATE TUE...AND
DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY LATE WED.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N BETWEEN 78W-82W THROUGH MID-
WEEK WITH MAX SEAS REACHING TO 9 FT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN
PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO
CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE HAPPENING AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT N OF 29N W OF
78W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT
DURING TUE AND THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO
CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND
IT SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 9 TO 13 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N11W
TO 05N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N26W TO
01N32W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 11W
AND 21W AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE HALF EASTERN U.S. AND THE
NW ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF OHIO
CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THEN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N82W TO
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND IT SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO W WINDS ARE N OF
24N E OF 95W. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES COVER THE REMAINDER
WESTERN BASIN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM AT LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVELS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC TROPICAL WATERS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE BASIN LATER THIS
MORNING...LEAVING IT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER THE NW
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS
ON THE GALE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 19N78W TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS
NEAR 10N81W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT S OF 19N TO 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUES IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W. LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDE
STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER EASTERN BASIN.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START DISSIPATING LATE WED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS IS FORECAST TO STALL THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING
TUE AND WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING AHEAD OF THE
SECOND COLD FRONT N OF 29N W OF 78W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
GALE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 60W. THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL START DISSIPATING WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE SW N ATLC LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN
PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO
CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE HAPPENING AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT N OF 29N W OF
78W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT
DURING TUE AND THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO
CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND
IT SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 9 TO 13 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N11W
TO 05N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N26W TO
01N32W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 11W
AND 21W AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE HALF EASTERN U.S. AND THE
NW ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF OHIO
CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THEN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N82W TO
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND IT SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO W WINDS ARE N OF
24N E OF 95W. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES COVER THE REMAINDER
WESTERN BASIN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM AT LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVELS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC TROPICAL WATERS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE BASIN LATER THIS
MORNING...LEAVING IT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER THE NW
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS
ON THE GALE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 19N78W TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS
NEAR 10N81W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT S OF 19N TO 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUES IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W. LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDE
STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER EASTERN BASIN.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START DISSIPATING LATE WED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS IS FORECAST TO STALL THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING
TUE AND WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING AHEAD OF THE
SECOND COLD FRONT N OF 29N W OF 78W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
GALE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 60W. THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL START DISSIPATING WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE SW N ATLC LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS COLLAPSED THIS
EVENING...AND IS GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY A NEW 1030 MB HIGH
SHIFTING S ACROSS W TEXAS. THIS NEW HIGH WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH
TUE AND REINFORCE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM
FORCE TONIGHT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
TO STRONG GALES TO 45 KT LATE TUE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS
MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAXIMUM
SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO
20-22 FT. EXPECT STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS
SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT
EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
AND IS PRODUCING ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OF 20 TO 30
KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO AREA AND DOWNWIND SOME 150-180 NM AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NE WINDS OF20-
25 KT WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF FONSECA. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS
GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 88W-110W FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO 04N100W TO 05.5N123W TO BEYOND
05N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 96W AND 112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
ACROSS THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHERE
MAX SEAS ARE 7-8 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE NW WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE AND TO 10-15 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 13N
GENERALLY W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT S OF 13N W OF 110W. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
AREA REMAIN AT 20-25 KT N OF 29N...WHERE NW SWELL IS PRODUCING
SEAS 8-12 FT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN IN FAR NW
PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 19N140W ON TUE...WITH STRONG S TO SW
WINDS MEANDERING ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MAX SEAS
TO 8-11 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 090005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG
31N61W 25N65W 20N71W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14 FEET TO 25 FEET...THE HIGHEST NEAR
31N67W...TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 73W.

DEVELOPING GALE FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST
CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET
TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 78W.

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG
30N85W 27N90W 26N97W. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT TO 93W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N98W INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 9 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
LOCALLY NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE IN...AGADIR...CANARIAS...AND
CAPE VERDE EXPECTED.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL NEAR
13N17W TO 10N20W AND 05N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N21W TO
02N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 39W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 02S47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 11W AND
15W...AND FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM
EASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD.

THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE U.S.A. FROM
KANSAS EASTWARD IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W...AND TO 27N95W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY AT 27N95W...AND IT CONTINUES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO... BEYOND 32N107W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N60W TO 26N64W AND 21N70W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT
21N70W AND IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ALONG
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE BORDER AREA OF EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA...TO 28N67W AND 23N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 28N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N60W
23N67W 23N71W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN JAMAICA...TO
14N79W AND 09N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 1.11 IN BERMUDA. THE AIR TEMPERATURE REACHED 50
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR COLDER IN SEVERAL CITIES IN WEST CENTRAL
CUBA THIS MORNING.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HISPANIOLA. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS
CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.17 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND
SOUTHERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
PUERTO PLATA...NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED...WITH
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BECOMING
WEST WIND FLOW AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE ORIENTATION
OF A RIDGE WILL CHANGE DURING DAY ONE...THUS AFFECTING THE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING
DAY TWO. A RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
BEYOND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT WEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL MAKE THE WIND SHIFT
POSSIBLE. THE WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE...THAT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF DOMINICA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
WILL MOVE TO 16N64W AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH DURING DAY TWO...AS THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER MOVES TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N26W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N40W 13N45W 11N54W AND
10N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE FROM 19N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
60W EASTWARD. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N26W.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N26W THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N50W AND
22N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082215
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HAS BEGUN TO COLLAPSE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY A NEW 1033 MB
HIGH SHIFTING SE INTO W TEXAS. THIS NEW HIGH WILL SHIFT SE
THROUGH TUE AND REINFORCE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH STORM FORCE TONIGHT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO STRONG GALES TO 45 KT TUE MORNING THROUGH
EVENING. WINDS MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF
WIND WILL BUILD TO 20-22 FT. EXPECT STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40
KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING
GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING
FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE HIGH
MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
AND IS PRODUCING ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OF 25 TO 35
KT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE DURING PEAK EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
MAINLY ACROSS AND DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
EXTEND OFFSHORE 150-180 NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N
BETWEEN 88W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05.5N86W TO 03N114W TO 05N126W TO 05N138W
TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 105W...AND
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS
THE FAR N PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MAX SEAS ARE 6-
8 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE NW WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15-20
KT EARLY WED AND 10-15 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 13N
GENERALLY BETWEEN 115W-125W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT S OF 13N W OF 110W. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THEAREAHAVE INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 26N AND W OF 134W...WHERE
NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS 8-13 FT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND
WEAKEN IN FAR NW PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 19N140W ON TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MAX SEAS
TO 10-11 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS
THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082215
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HAS BEGUN TO COLLAPSE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY A NEW 1033 MB
HIGH SHIFTING SE INTO W TEXAS. THIS NEW HIGH WILL SHIFT SE
THROUGH TUE AND REINFORCE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH STORM FORCE TONIGHT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO STRONG GALES TO 45 KT TUE MORNING THROUGH
EVENING. WINDS MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF
WIND WILL BUILD TO 20-22 FT. EXPECT STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40
KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING
GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING
FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE HIGH
MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
AND IS PRODUCING ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OF 25 TO 35
KT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE DURING PEAK EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
MAINLY ACROSS AND DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
EXTEND OFFSHORE 150-180 NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N
BETWEEN 88W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05.5N86W TO 03N114W TO 05N126W TO 05N138W
TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 105W...AND
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS
THE FAR N PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MAX SEAS ARE 6-
8 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE NW WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15-20
KT EARLY WED AND 10-15 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 13N
GENERALLY BETWEEN 115W-125W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT S OF 13N W OF 110W. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THEAREAHAVE INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 26N AND W OF 134W...WHERE
NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS 8-13 FT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND
WEAKEN IN FAR NW PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 19N140W ON TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MAX SEAS
TO 10-11 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS
THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 081754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N62W
ALONG 27N66W TO THE E TIP OF CUBA THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-72W. THESE WINDS WILL
BE N OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE BEING PRODUCED BY
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 976 MB STORM LOW OFF THE
MARYLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE RIDGES OVER THE E CONUS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. THIS IS ALSO GENERATING SEAS TO 30
FT...HIGHEST NEAR 32N70W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

ATLC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS
EVENING OVER THE FAR NW AREA N OF 29N W OF 78W. THESE WINDS ARE
BEING PRODUCED BY THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W
ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE N OF THE AREA WED EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT
OVER THE N/CENTRAL AND NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N29W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-33W
AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER THE E CONUS AND N
GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT AT
08/1500 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W
ALONG 27N96W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS THEN MEXICO NEAR BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. STRONG WINDS ARE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN. LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF EXCEPT W OF
THE COLD FRONT WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF TODAY THROUGH TUE
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR NW AREA WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE GULF N OF 18N W OF 80W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N74W ALONG THE S
COAST OF CUBA TO 20N78W THEN S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG
18N82W ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 12N84W. ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER FAIR WEATHER SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DRIFT E LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE THEN STALLING FROM SW
HAITI TO W PANAMA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TUE NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF NW AND SW HAITI WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DRIFT E LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE STALLING OVER SW HAITI TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND AN INCREASE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER W ATLC TO OVER THE E CONUS IS
SUPPORTING A 976 MB STORM CENTER OFF THE MARYLAND COAST NEAR
27N67W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 08/1500 UTC NEAR
32N61W ALONG 27N64W TO 22N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST E
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE E TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM E
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N71W. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT TO WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH S OF
THE AZORES AND W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N59W TO HAITI THIS EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA TONIGHT REACHING FROM
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA WED MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH THE
STALLED FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GALE
FORCE WINDS TO THE NW PORTION TUE EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 8 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N94W AND LOWER PRES SE OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. AN ASCAT PASS AT
0320 UTC SHOWED 30-45 KT WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR 13.5N96W. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MAX SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A STRONG
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE AROUND 03Z...
WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 20-22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES TUE AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z...AND PERSIST
AS A MODERATE TO STRONG GALE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL
EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH
SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE
HIGH MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
LENDING ITSELF TO ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO 35 KT AND
TO 40 KT DURING PEAK EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. NEAR GALE NE
WINDS ARE ALSO SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE
GULF OF FONSECA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING
A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF
THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 05N122W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTS FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AND 25 KT WINDS N OF 30N. MAX SEAS ARE NEAR 6-7 FT.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH TUE.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 13N
GENERALLY BETWEEN 115W-125W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. AN ASCAT PASS
AT 0648 UTC SHOWED 20-30 KT S-SE WINDS IN NW PORTION OF THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG 140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-14
FT THIS MORNING WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION...THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM 30N132W TO 19N140W TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MAX SEAS
TO 10-11 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS
THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 081117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC STORM WARNING...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 979 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 33N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW TO 31N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST
OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-FORCE WINDS N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W AND
N OF 29N WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. SEAS IN THE AREA OF STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 32 FT AND FROM 18 TO 25 FT IN
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM-
FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRES CENTER CONTINUES TO
MOVE NE...HOWEVER GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE
PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 E OF FRONT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE BASIN
AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF 27N E OF 90W.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TUE MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 04N08W
TO 03N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO
02S50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO 01N BETWEEN
28W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 22N93W COVERS
THE ENTIRE BASIN AND PROVIDES VARIABLE LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND
FLOW. WATER VAPOR...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
UPPER LEVELS ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE IN THE
WESTERN GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF
27N E OF 90W TONIGHT...CONTINUING TO EARLY TUE MORNING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N65W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 31N65W
SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
NORTHERN COSTA RICA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND
THE FRONT S OF 17N TO 85W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT
PROVIDE STABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST
TO START DISSIPATING LATE TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A FORMER COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STALLED THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 33N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
TO 31N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-
FORCE WINDS N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
HAPPENING N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W AND N OF 29N WITHIN 60 NM
E OF FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM-FORCE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PRES CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NE...HOWEVER
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NEAR 60W TONIGHT...STALLING S
OF 23N AND OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE SW N ATLC LATE TONIGHT...GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080942
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS CONTINUES
TO GENERATE STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 13.5N96W PER A
RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/0320 UTC. WIND RETRIEVALS OF 30-45
KT WERE CAPTURED WITH SEAS WITHIN THIS ZONE ESTIMATED TO BE AS
HIGH AS 17 FT. EXPECT THE STRONG GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING TO
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG GALES GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO MINIMAL GALES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS JUST DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 12-13 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
STRONG REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT TO PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE
WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO AROUND 22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST AT
MODERATE TO STRONG GALES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL
EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH
SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH
MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
REMAINS TIGHT THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND IS LENDING ITSELF TO
ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO 35 KT AND POSSIBLY 40 KT AT
THE PEAK OF THE EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. BRIEF GALES ARE
ALSO SUGGESTED BY COMPUTER MODELS EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE GULF
OF FONSECA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. GALES
ARE THEN FORECAST TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP
WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS
THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W TO 02N106W TO 04N121W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W
AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W
TONIGHT...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF
115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE NEAR 6-7 FT. EXPECT THESE N-NW WINDS TO
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH
LATE MON.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 14N GENERALLY BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...WHERE
SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-11 FT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT
GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
30N140W WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/0554 UTC INDICATING
STRONG TO NEAR GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 26N W OF 137W. NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS ALSO IMPACTING THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT AS THE FRONT REMAINS
IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ALONG
133W TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W ON MON. AN AREA OF 25-30 KT
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 080604 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC STORM WARNING...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 986 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 33N75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW TO 30N67W SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-FORCE WINDS N
OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING N OF
27N W OF THE FRONT TO 78W AND E OF THE FRONT TO 67W. SEAS IN THE
AREA OF STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 16 TO 22 FT AND FROM
12 TO 17 FT IN THE GALE-FORCE WINDS REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW STORM-FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES
NE...HOWEVER GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
IT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE SW N ATLC AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N W OF 77W. GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN
THE BASIN AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF THE
FRONT E OF 90W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
TUE MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W
TO 03N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N31W TO
01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-02N BETWEEN 20W-
24W AND FROM 05S TO 03N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N92W COVERS
THE ENTIRE BASIN AND PROVIDES VARIABLE LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND
FLOW. WATER VAPOR...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
UPPER LEVELS ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE IN THE
WESTERN GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
WATERS DURING MON NIGHT HOURS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT E OF 90W MON NIGHT...CONTINUING TO TUE
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 986 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N75W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 30N67W
SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 20N76W
TO 16N81W TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 11N83W.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 19N TO
87W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA
AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDE STABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL
STALL AND START DISSIPATING TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL MOVE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER THIS
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH TUE. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 986 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 33N75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
TO 30N67W SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND EAST OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-FORCE WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN
70W AND 77W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING N OF 27N W OF THE
FRONT TO 78W AND E OF THE FRONT TO 67W. SEAS IN THE AREA OF
STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 16 TO 22 FT AND FROM 12 TO 17
FT IN THE GALE-FORCE WINDS REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
STORM-FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES NE...HOWEVER
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NEAR 60W MON NIGHT...STALLING S
OF 23N AND OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE SW N ATLC LATE MON NIGHT...GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080335
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W CENTRAL GULF SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 12.5N97W. WINDS THERE AREA
HOLDING STEADY EARLY TONIGHT AT 30-45 KT AND SEAS WITHIN THIS
ZONE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 20 FT. EXPECT THE STRONG
GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH STRONG GALES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO MINIMAL GALES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS JUST
DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 12-13 FT
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT TO PROMOTE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO
AROUND 22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST AT MODERATE TO STRONG GALES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR
BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. A LARGE PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ADJACENT
NICARAGUAN AND COSTA RICAN OFFSHORE WATERS TO 89W...WITH MAX
WINDS THIS EVENING NEAR 30 KT. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AND ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TO 35 AND POSSIBLY 40 KT. BRIEF GALES ARE ALSO SUGGESTED
BY COMPUTER MODELS EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WILL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. GALES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT
IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04.5N88W TO 04N107W TO 06N121W TO BEYOND
05N140W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W
TONIGHT...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF
120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE
NEAR 8 FT BETWEEN 25N-26N. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO
PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH
TUE.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND 15-16N...AND W OF 115W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9-11
FT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF
110W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W MON MORNING WITH NW
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PART OF
THE AREA ALREADY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N
OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13
FT AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN WEAKENS
TUEAND FINALLY DISSIPATES ALONG ALONG 132W.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W ON MON. AN AREA OF 25-30 KT
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 072340 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 992 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO 25N74W TO
22N77W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF
FRONT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
STORM FORCE N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC THIS
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N83W TO 25N86W TO 24N94W TO
22N98W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE
FRONT TO 92W BEGINNING 09/0600 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM 31N73W TO 27N77W TO 24N80W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W BEGINNING
09/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N08W
TO 03N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 01N34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-03N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N93W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE NW GULF. THE SW GULF HAS 10-15 KT N WINDS...WHILE THE E GULF
AND FLORIDA HAS 15-25 N WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WNW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH BROKEN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO NE NICARAGUA
ALONG 17N82W 14N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE E OF 77W WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND
GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT SE WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH HAITI
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO
HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO 25N72W
TO E CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF
THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-72W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE RAPIDLY E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT ON TUE FOR ANOTHER GALE TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 072340 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 992 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO 25N74W TO
22N77W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF
FRONT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
STORM FORCE N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC THIS
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N83W TO 25N86W TO 24N94W TO
22N98W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE
FRONT TO 92W BEGINNING 09/0600 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM 31N73W TO 27N77W TO 24N80W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W BEGINNING
09/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N08W
TO 03N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 01N34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-03N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N93W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE NW GULF. THE SW GULF HAS 10-15 KT N WINDS...WHILE THE E GULF
AND FLORIDA HAS 15-25 N WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WNW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH BROKEN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO NE NICARAGUA
ALONG 17N82W 14N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE E OF 77W WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND
GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT SE WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH HAITI
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO
HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO 25N72W
TO E CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF
THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-72W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE RAPIDLY E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT ON TUE FOR ANOTHER GALE TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 072340 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 992 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO 25N74W TO
22N77W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF
FRONT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
STORM FORCE N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC THIS
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N83W TO 25N86W TO 24N94W TO
22N98W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE
FRONT TO 92W BEGINNING 09/0600 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM 31N73W TO 27N77W TO 24N80W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W BEGINNING
09/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N08W
TO 03N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 01N34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-03N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N93W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE NW GULF. THE SW GULF HAS 10-15 KT N WINDS...WHILE THE E GULF
AND FLORIDA HAS 15-25 N WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WNW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH BROKEN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO NE NICARAGUA
ALONG 17N82W 14N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE E OF 77W WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND
GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT SE WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH HAITI
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO
HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO 25N72W
TO E CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF
THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-72W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE RAPIDLY E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT ON TUE FOR ANOTHER GALE TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS
FROMTHE N CENTRAL GULF SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 11.5N97.5W. WINDS HERE HAS
JUST DIMINISHED FROM 30-50 KT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS
WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 22 FT. EXPECT
THE STRONG GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG GALES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO MINIMAL
GALES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS
JUST DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 12-
13 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG REINFORCING RIDGE
WILLBUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT TO
PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING
TO NEAR 22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST AT MODERATE TO STRONG GALES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR
BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS
IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. A LARGE PLUME OF WINDS CONTINUES TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ADJACENT NICARAGUAN AND COSTA
RICAN OFFSHORE WATERS TO 06.5N93W...WITH MAX WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR 30 KT. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ENHANCE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TO 35 AND POSSIBLY 40 KT. BRIEF GALES ARE ALSO
SUGGESTED BY COMPUTER MODELS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE GULF OF
FONSECA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WILL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. GALES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT
IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 03N110W TO 5.5N126W TO
BEYOND04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO
05N BETWEEN 92W AND98W...AND FROM 07.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND
119W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W
OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE
AROUND 8 FT BETWEEN 25N-26N. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO
PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH
TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH ALSO MAINTAINING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND 15-16N...AND W OF 115W BASED ON MOST RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING 9-11 FT SEAS. TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W MON MORNING WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA TODAY. FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT AS THE FRONT
REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN WEAKENS TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W BY MON AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF 25-
30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO
PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071808 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WAS 1005 MB AND CENTERED NEAR 21N78W
AS OF 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS
N OF 25N W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N77W
TO 22N79W. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE N
OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 92W
BEGINNING 09/0000 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W
BEGINNING 09/1200. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 03N09E
TO 03N09W TO 03N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
01N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA WITH COLD ADVECTION
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FL STRAITS NEAR 24N83W TO 23N87W TO 23N92W. NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC MODERATE WINDS COVER
THE GULF W OF 90W AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDING SE
OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 73W AND 79W IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE
WINDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN...ASIDE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND STALL OUT FROM HAITI TO JUST N
OF CENTRAL PANAMA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NW OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
HAITI FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS TO HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AS OF 1200 UTC WAS 1005 MB NEAR 31N78W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N77W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM 28N79W TO 24N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N75W TO 29N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN
71W AND 76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N26W TO 10N34W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N26W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC
TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WAS 1005 MB AND CENTERED NEAR 21N78W
AS OF 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS
N OF 25N W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N77W
TO 22N79W. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE N
OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 92W
BEGINNING 09/0000 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W
BEGINNING 09/1200. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 03N09E
TO 03N09W TO 03N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
01N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA WITH COLD ADVECTION
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FL STRAITS NEAR 24N83W TO 23N87W TO 23N92W. NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC MODERATE WINDS COVER
THE GULF W OF 90W AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDING SE
OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 73W AND 79W IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE
WINDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN...ASIDE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND STALL OUT FROM HAITI TO JUST N
OF CENTRAL PANAMA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NW OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
HAITI FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS TO HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AS OF 1200 UTC WAS 1005 MB NEAR 31N78W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N77W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM 28N79W TO 24N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N75W TO 29N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN
71W AND 76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N26W TO 10N34W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N26W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC
TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WAS 1005 MB AND CENTERED NEAR 21N78W
AS OF 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS
N OF 25N W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N77W
TO 22N79W. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE N
OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 92W
BEGINNING 09/0000 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W
BEGINNING 09/1200. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 03N09E
TO 03N09W TO 03N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
01N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA WITH COLD ADVECTION
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FL STRAITS NEAR 24N83W TO 23N87W TO 23N92W. NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC MODERATE WINDS COVER
THE GULF W OF 90W AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDING SE
OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 73W AND 79W IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE
WINDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN...ASIDE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND STALL OUT FROM HAITI TO JUST N
OF CENTRAL PANAMA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NW OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
HAITI FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS TO HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AS OF 1200 UTC WAS 1005 MB NEAR 31N78W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N77W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM 28N79W TO 24N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N75W TO 29N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN
71W AND 76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N26W TO 10N34W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N26W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC
TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WAS 1005 MB AND CENTERED NEAR 21N78W
AS OF 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS
N OF 25N W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N77W
TO 22N79W. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE N
OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 92W
BEGINNING 09/0000 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W
BEGINNING 09/1200. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 03N09E
TO 03N09W TO 03N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
01N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA WITH COLD ADVECTION
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FL STRAITS NEAR 24N83W TO 23N87W TO 23N92W. NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC MODERATE WINDS COVER
THE GULF W OF 90W AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDING SE
OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 73W AND 79W IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE
WINDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN...ASIDE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND STALL OUT FROM HAITI TO JUST N
OF CENTRAL PANAMA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NW OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
HAITI FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS TO HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AS OF 1200 UTC WAS 1005 MB NEAR 31N78W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N77W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM 28N79W TO 24N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N75W TO 29N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN
71W AND 76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N26W TO 10N34W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N26W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC
TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WAS 1005 MB AND CENTERED NEAR 21N78W
AS OF 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS
N OF 25N W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N77W
TO 22N79W. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE N
OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 92W
BEGINNING 09/0000 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W
BEGINNING 09/1200. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 03N09E
TO 03N09W TO 03N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
01N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA WITH COLD ADVECTION
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FL STRAITS NEAR 24N83W TO 23N87W TO 23N92W. NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC MODERATE WINDS COVER
THE GULF W OF 90W AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDING SE
OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 73W AND 79W IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE
WINDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN...ASIDE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND STALL OUT FROM HAITI TO JUST N
OF CENTRAL PANAMA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NW OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
HAITI FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS TO HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AS OF 1200 UTC WAS 1005 MB NEAR 31N78W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N77W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM 28N79W TO 24N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N75W TO 29N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN
71W AND 76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N26W TO 10N34W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N26W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC
TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WAS 1005 MB AND CENTERED NEAR 21N78W
AS OF 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS
N OF 25N W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N77W
TO 22N79W. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE N
OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 92W
BEGINNING 09/0000 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W
BEGINNING 09/1200. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 03N09E
TO 03N09W TO 03N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
01N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA WITH COLD ADVECTION
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FL STRAITS NEAR 24N83W TO 23N87W TO 23N92W. NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC MODERATE WINDS COVER
THE GULF W OF 90W AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDING SE
OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 73W AND 79W IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE
WINDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN...ASIDE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND STALL OUT FROM HAITI TO JUST N
OF CENTRAL PANAMA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NW OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
HAITI FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS TO HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AS OF 1200 UTC WAS 1005 MB NEAR 31N78W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N77W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM 28N79W TO 24N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N75W TO 29N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN
71W AND 76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N26W TO 10N34W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N26W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC
TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH STRONG GALE NORTHERLY
35-45 KT WINDS GENERALLY N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W. EXPECT STRONG
RIDGING TO PERSIST WITH MAX WINDS DURING EARLY MORNING PEAK
DRAINAGE FLOW AND SEAS JUST DOWNWIND BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 20 FT
DURING THIS TIME. STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
15Z-18Z TODAY...THEN REMAIN 30-40 KT SEVERAL MORE DAYS INTO MID-
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT STORM CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP
LATE MON NIGHT AROUND 06Z. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE
REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS EXTENDING BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WILL INCREASE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO TO 35 KT TODAY. LATEST HI-RES GFS SUGGESTS WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF
NICOYA TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING
THE ENTIRE REGION FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. A
VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 90W-110W THROUGH TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N90W TO 06N126W TO 03N140W. SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N-04N BETWEEN 91W-96W.

...DISCUSSION...

RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE 7 FT BETWEEN 25N-26N. EXPECT FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS TO PERSIST IN SMALL PORTION N OF 30N THROUGH
TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH ALSO MAINTAINING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 130W
BASED ON MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...SUPPORTING 9-11 FT
SEAS. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF
110W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W MON MORNING WITH NW
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF THE
AREA TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED N OF 26N
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT AS
THE FRONT REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN WEAKENS TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W BY MON AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA
OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
THROUGH TUE.

$$
MUNDELL




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities