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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 5N17W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W AND FROM 5N-9N W OF 50W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS AND GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 90W. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W
OF 89W. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGHS THAT EFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN
YESTERDAY ARE NO LONGER IN THE AREA BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN
63W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 16N TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 66W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. E-SE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING WITH FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GIVING THE ISLAND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM 32N79W TO
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 25 KT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N51W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA THEN SE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 71W FROM 25N-28N. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 25N58W ALONG
25N63W TO 24N68W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-69W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 30N33W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N29W ALONG 25N31W TO 21N40W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N50W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N.
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 20N30W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.
THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH SAT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THE WEAKER SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 5N17W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W AND FROM 5N-9N W OF 50W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS AND GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 90W. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W
OF 89W. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGHS THAT EFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN
YESTERDAY ARE NO LONGER IN THE AREA BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN
63W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 16N TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 66W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. E-SE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING WITH FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GIVING THE ISLAND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM 32N79W TO
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 25 KT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N51W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA THEN SE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 71W FROM 25N-28N. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 25N58W ALONG
25N63W TO 24N68W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-69W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 30N33W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N29W ALONG 25N31W TO 21N40W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N50W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N.
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 20N30W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.
THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH SAT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THE WEAKER SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N97W TO 07N105W TO 08N110W. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N110W TO 09N115W TO 07N126W TO BEYOND
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN AN AREA
BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 09N110W TO 03N138W TO 11N127W TO 09N110W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA TO 12N110W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS PRESENT OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED FROM
31.5N114W TO 31N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
COLD FRONT AND THE TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS GENERATING FRESH TO
STRONG NW TO N FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 29.5N
AND 30.5N AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BETWEEN 28N AND 29N.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SAME AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR GALE
FORCE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SWELLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LATEST ALTIMETRY SUGGESTS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS STILL
TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 12 FEET AS IT CROSSES THE EQUATOR W OF THE
GALAPAGOS. THE ECMWF MODEL IS INITIALIZING WELL WITH THESE SWELL
HEIGHTS SO WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF FOR NEAR TERM SEA HEIGHTS IN
THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PERSIST IN
THIS AREA AS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...TRADE-WIND AND NW SWELL ALL
BEGIN TO MERGE. THE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TONIGHT AND SAT.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEAKENS THE RIDGE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RETIGHTEN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$
MCELROY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 06N15W 03N25W
02N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO
03N BETWEEN 03W AND 06W...BETWEEN 14W AND 15W ALONG 06N...FROM
03N TO 06N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W...AND FROM 07N TO 08N ALONG 54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE THAT IS
ALONG 28N85W 32N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N84W 30N83W BEYOND 32N82W...FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N77W...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KVAF...AND KEMK.

IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KHHV...KEHC...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KVBS...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...
KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KIKT...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON SOUTHWARD...IFR IN
VICTORIA AND LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LIFR IN JASPER. LIFR IN HUNTSVILLE. IFR IN CONROE AND TOMBALL.
IFR IN HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW
IBERIA. IFR IN LAFAYETTE. MVFR IN GALLIANO AND BOOTHVILLE. HEAVY
RAIN IN BATON ROUGE. THUNDER IS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN IN SLIDELL. IFR AND MVFR ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING
REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. THUNDER IN GULFPORT. THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN IN
BILOXI. MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR IN GULF SHORES. LIFR
AT THE CAIRNS ARMY FIELD IN FORT RUCKER AND IN DOTHAN.
FLORIDA...MVFR IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN MARIANNA. IFR IN PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH SPANS THE BAHAMAS...
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD.

THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 20N68W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG NORTHERN PUERTO RICO 24
HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...MVFR CEILING AT 1600 FEET.
PUNTA CANA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN PART OF THE
OBSERVATIONS FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN WERE
IN THE OBSERVATION A FEW HOURS AGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NOW...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...
AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS HAITI...AND
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N34W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM A 32N29W TRIPLE
POINT...TO 28N30W 21N40W 21N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 22N44W TO 21N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N55W TO
22N64W AND 20N68W AND 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT FROM 21N40W NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 29N
BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W
INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N101W TO 07N115W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 06N126W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH 22N120W TO 15N107W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING
PREVAILS ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED
FROM 32N119W TO 31N130W. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW IS FROM
30N-32N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 32N INCLUDING ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE FILTERING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING A BRIEF SURGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW BEHIND IT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
GALE JUST AHEAD OF IT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT... HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL REACH THE SW FACING
SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...THEN WILL REACH
THE PACIFIC SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SWELL WILL DECAY SAT NIGHT
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS REGION THROUGH SAT MORNING...
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH SE OF 30N140W MON NIGHT WITH NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ITS WAKE FOR TUE.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N101W TO 07N115W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 06N126W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH 22N120W TO 15N107W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING
PREVAILS ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED
FROM 32N119W TO 31N130W. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW IS FROM
30N-32N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 32N INCLUDING ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE FILTERING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING A BRIEF SURGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW BEHIND IT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
GALE JUST AHEAD OF IT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT... HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL REACH THE SW FACING
SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...THEN WILL REACH
THE PACIFIC SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SWELL WILL DECAY SAT NIGHT
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS REGION THROUGH SAT MORNING...
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH SE OF 30N140W MON NIGHT WITH NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ITS WAKE FOR TUE.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N18W 03N30W 03N42W
AND 01N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N
TO 06N BETWEEN 15W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS
SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE/SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N/28N ALONG 85W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...AND KGRY.

IFR CONDITIONS...KGUL...KGHB...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...
KEIR...KSPR...KATP...AND KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MOSTLY IFR WITH A FEW MVFR OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOWER
VALLEY. IFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI AND ALICE AND KINGSVILLE. LIFR IN VICTORIA.
IFR IN PORT LAVACA AND PALACIOS...IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/ LAKE
JACKSON. A MIXTURE OF IFR AND MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA...MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...VFR IN GALVESTON. LIFR IN
CONROE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW IBERIA. MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...IFR IN MARIANNA AND PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CUBA INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH
SPANS CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD.

THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 20N60W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG NORTHERN PUERTO RICO 24
HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VFR CEILING AT 28/0000 UTC. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...RAIN AND
THUNDER. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW
REMAINING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AFTER EARLIER RAINSHOWERS.
SANTIAGO...A MVFR CLOUD CEILING AT 1600 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET...
VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...
AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS HAITI...AND
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N36W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM A 32N30W TRIPLE
POINT...TO 29N30W 22N40W 22N46W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 22N46W TO 23N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N56W TO
24N64W 22N68W AND 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM
23N36W NORTHWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...AND FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
SAN JUAN...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280227
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N116W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN W OF 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH 12N105W. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOUND OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NW MEXICO OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WINDS
HAVE STRENGTHENED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY THU NIGHT. NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FORECAST
WATERS. SEAS WILL IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY COMBINED SEAS
ARE IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. A NEW SET
OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL REACH THE SW FACING SHORES OF
THE GALAPAGOS BY THU NIGHT...THEN REACH THE PACIFIC SHORES OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINED SEAS IN THE
6-9 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THURSDAY AND PROPAGATE SE.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272113
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N115W TO 06N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF
130W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 31N144W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 17N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF
120W. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE SAME OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING
INTO THE AREA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE COVERING THE NORTHERN
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
ARE ALSO COVERING THE AREA OF TRADEWINDS DESCRIBED ABOVE WHERE
THE NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH NE TRADEWIND SWELL. CROSS EQUATORIAL
SW SWELL WILL MERGE WITH THE NW SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GAPE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIES OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N21W TO 3N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-
27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 3W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING A SQUALL LINE AT
27/1500 UTC FROM OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO 29N93W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO NE MEXICO NEAR
25N98W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE SQUALL LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SE NEAR 25
KT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE E GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SQUALL
LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT PULSING
STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED S OF
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT FRONT ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS GIVING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER HAITI WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT
FRONT ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS
GIVING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER HAITI
WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU. THUS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N40W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 27N37W TO
23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N56W THEN CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
18N70W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 25N-28N.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1019 MB
HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N26W.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THU
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N21W TO 3N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-
27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 3W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING A SQUALL LINE AT
27/1500 UTC FROM OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO 29N93W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO NE MEXICO NEAR
25N98W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE SQUALL LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SE NEAR 25
KT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE E GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SQUALL
LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT PULSING
STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED S OF
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT FRONT ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS GIVING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER HAITI WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT
FRONT ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS
GIVING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER HAITI
WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU. THUS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N40W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 27N37W TO
23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N56W THEN CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
18N70W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 25N-28N.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1019 MB
HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N26W.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THU
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 07N91W AND FROM 09N98W TO
07N105W TO 08N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N115W TO 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
14N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W...AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND
100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 11N111W TO 06N125W...AND FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN
129W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA STEMMING FROM 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 31N140W THROUGH 23N120W TO 17N109W. BROAD AND
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED ACROSS NW MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOUND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PER AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS AROUND 27/0518
UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS
NW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG N OF 30N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ITS WAKE.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE FUNNELED THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
BY LATE THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. NW SWELLS OF 6 TO 10
FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING FROM THE COSTA RICA COAST WESTWARD
FROM 07N-10N TO 110W. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. CURRENTLY COMBINED SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SW AND
NW SWELL. A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL BREACH THE
EQUATOR AT 110W TONIGHT...REACHING THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE
GALAPAGOS BY THU NIGHT...THEN REACHING THE PACIFIC SHORES OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9
FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN...SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE ABOVE DISCUSSED RIDGING IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT COVER THIS
REMAINING AREA...EXCEPT IN THE NW CORNER CLOSEST TO THE HIGH
CENTER WHERE SEAS ARE ONLY 4 TO 6 FT UNDER LIGHT WINDS. A NEW
SET OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION BY THU MORNING AS
THE HIGH TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN DUE TO A DECAYING COLD FRONT...
WHICH WILL BE PROGRESSING S ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
COLD FRONT WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W 08N15W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N15W 04N23W 04N29W TO
02N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 04N SOUTH FROM 15W EASTWARD...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N10W 04N20W 04N30W 05N43W 07N52W
10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N75W...ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA...TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...
KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR FROM HARLINGEN WESTWARD IN THE LOWER VALLEY...MVFR
TO THE EAST OF HARLINGEN. IFR AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVAL AIR
STATION. LIGHT RAIN IN VICTORIA. HEAVY RAIN IN PORT LAVACA. IFR
IN BAY CITY. RAINSHOWERS...SOMETIMES HEAVY...AND THUNDER IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS...EVEN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN
BILOXI AND GULFPORT. IFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR RIGHT AT
THE COAST. LIFR FROM EVERGREEN TO THE CAIRNS AIRFIELD AT FORT
RUCKER TO DOTHAN. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PENSACOLA. LIFR AT WHITING
FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW. IFR IN VALPARAISO AND
DESTIN. LIFR IN MARIANNA AND IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. MVFR IN APALACHICOLA. MVFR AT THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

PLEASE REFER TO THE WEATHER BULLETINS FROM THE NWS OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR DETAILS ABOUT RAIN THAT CONTINUED THERE
DURING TUESDAY...AND ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS. SOME RESIDUAL MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE REMAINS AS THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
BEGINNING AND ENDING.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W
AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 17N73W...TO
14N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO
17N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DIMINISHING IN THE CENTER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUNTA CANA...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR
CEILING. SANTIAGO...MVFR CEILING. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000
FEET...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE...AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF
A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HAITI...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 26N40W
21N52W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 21N52W TO 19N61W. THE FRONT
IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 19N61W...ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO...TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO
30N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15
NM TO 30 NM OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W...AND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N26W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 33N61W TO 29N75W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE
UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N87W TO 10N100W TO 07N110W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N110W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 13N
BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN
81W AND 84W...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W...FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 124W AND
128W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 132W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA STEMMING FROM 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 31N140W THROUGH 26N125W TO 16N108W. BROAD AND
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED ACROSS NW MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROUGHING IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
ACROSS NW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO FRESH TO STRONG N OF 29N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ITS WAKE.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE FUNNELED THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
BY LATE THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. NW SWELLS OF 6-10
FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SW-W FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
WIND CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY COMBINED SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN
MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL
WILL BREACH THE EQUATOR AT 110W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...REACHING THE
SW FACING SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS BY THU EVENING...THEN REACHING
THE PACIFIC SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN...
SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE ABOVE DISCUSSED RIDGING IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT COVER THIS
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT IN THE NW CORNER
CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER WHERE SEAS ARE ONLY 4-6 FT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION
BY THU MORNING AS THE HIGH TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN DUE TO A
DECAYING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DROPPING S THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
NW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W 07N17W AND 05N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N19W 05N27W
04N34W TO 04N40W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 01N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...TO 02N07W 04N13W 04N30W 05N40W 06N46W 06N53W...AND
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KEIR...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...IFR
IN BAY CITY. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF SHORES AND AT THE CAIRNS
AIRFIELD AT FORT RUCKER. FLORIDA...IFR IN PENSACOLA. LIFR AT
WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN MARY ESTHER/
VALPARAISO/DESTIN. IFR IN PANAMA CITY. LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE. MVFR
IN PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

PLEASE REFER TO THE WEATHER BULLETINS FROM NWS OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR DETAILS ABOUT RAIN THAT CONTINUED THERE
DURING TUESDAY...AND ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES EXTENDS FROM 19N62W TO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N
BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N71W...ACROSS
HAITI...TO 17N73W...TO 14N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND
70W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...DRIZZLE IS
BEING REPORTED AT 27/0000 UTC. THE CEILING IS BROKEN AT 4500
FEET. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...RAINSHOWERS ARE
NEARBY AT 27/0000 UTC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING HAS A BASE AT
1800 FEET...MVFR. ANOTHER CLOUD BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. SANTO
DOMINGO...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...
MVFR...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. LA
ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AN OVERCAST CEILING AT
7000 FEET...AT 27/0300 UTC. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AN OVERCAST CEILING AT 7000 FEET. SANTIAGO...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000
FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000 FEET...MVFR...

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE...AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF
A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HAITI...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 34N39W TRIPLE
POINT...THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N38W 26N40W AND 21N53W. THE FRONT IS
STATIONARY FROM 21N53W TO 19N62W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FROM 19N62W TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FROM 19N TO 22N
BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 26N34W
21N43W 20N54W...AND FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N31W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 34N39W-TO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N66W TO 30N77W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W 07N17W AND 05N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N19W 05N27W
04N34W TO 04N40W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 01N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...TO 02N07W 04N13W 04N30W 05N40W 06N46W 06N53W...AND
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KEIR...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...IFR
IN BAY CITY. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF SHORES AND AT THE CAIRNS
AIRFIELD AT FORT RUCKER. FLORIDA...IFR IN PENSACOLA. LIFR AT
WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN MARY ESTHER/
VALPARAISO/DESTIN. IFR IN PANAMA CITY. LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE. MVFR
IN PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

PLEASE REFER TO THE WEATHER BULLETINS FROM NWS OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR DETAILS ABOUT RAIN THAT CONTINUED THERE
DURING TUESDAY...AND ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES EXTENDS FROM 19N62W TO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N
BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N71W...ACROSS
HAITI...TO 17N73W...TO 14N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND
70W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...DRIZZLE IS
BEING REPORTED AT 27/0000 UTC. THE CEILING IS BROKEN AT 4500
FEET. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...RAINSHOWERS ARE
NEARBY AT 27/0000 UTC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING HAS A BASE AT
1800 FEET...MVFR. ANOTHER CLOUD BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. SANTO
DOMINGO...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...
MVFR...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. LA
ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AN OVERCAST CEILING AT
7000 FEET...AT 27/0300 UTC. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AN OVERCAST CEILING AT 7000 FEET. SANTIAGO...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000
FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000 FEET...MVFR...

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE...AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF
A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HAITI...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 34N39W TRIPLE
POINT...THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N38W 26N40W AND 21N53W. THE FRONT IS
STATIONARY FROM 21N53W TO 19N62W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FROM 19N62W TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FROM 19N TO 22N
BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 26N34W
21N43W 20N54W...AND FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N31W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 34N39W-TO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N66W TO 30N77W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06N95W TO 06N110W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THERE TO 07N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND
130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 31N136W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE REACHING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N110W.  THE
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE ITCZ
IS PRODUCING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADEWINDS W OF
120W. THESE WILL DIMINISH SOME EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE UP TO STRONG BREEZE AND
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE UP TO 11 FT FROM A 12 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL IN
THE AFTERMATH OF A NOW-DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR AREA ALONG 32N EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING.  NW WINDS E OF 122W N OF 25N SHOULD CONTINUE AS FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SW TO W
WINDS WILL OCCUR N OF 29N WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THESE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE 8 FT SEAS...DUE TO THE LIMITED
FETCH ACROSS THE GULF. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIESCENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING NOR ARE
LIKELY TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELLS WILL REACH THE EQUATOR LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE
GALAPAGOS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN REACHING THE SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FRIDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLITUDE.

DESPITE QUITE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED TROUGH ALONG 6-8N...NO OUT OF SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06N95W TO 06N110W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THERE TO 07N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND
130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 31N136W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE REACHING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N110W.  THE
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE ITCZ
IS PRODUCING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADEWINDS W OF
120W. THESE WILL DIMINISH SOME EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE UP TO STRONG BREEZE AND
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE UP TO 11 FT FROM A 12 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL IN
THE AFTERMATH OF A NOW-DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR AREA ALONG 32N EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING.  NW WINDS E OF 122W N OF 25N SHOULD CONTINUE AS FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SW TO W
WINDS WILL OCCUR N OF 29N WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THESE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE 8 FT SEAS...DUE TO THE LIMITED
FETCH ACROSS THE GULF. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIESCENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING NOR ARE
LIKELY TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELLS WILL REACH THE EQUATOR LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE
GALAPAGOS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN REACHING THE SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FRIDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLITUDE.

DESPITE QUITE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED TROUGH ALONG 6-8N...NO OUT OF SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND
EXTENDS TO 05N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N31W
TO 04N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA AND A MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS AND APPROACH THE NW GULF COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION
AND WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA FROM 23N72W TO
17N74W. TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO FROM 18N69W TO 19N64W. THESE FEATURES
COMBINE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE E ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
FRONT TO LIFT N AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH THIS...CONVECTION IS
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER HISPANIOLA AT THIS
TIME AS A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES N OF THE ISLAND AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 55W ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 32N72W. TO THE E...A
996 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N46W WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING SW ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT NEAR 32N41W TO 25N45W TO 21N54W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THAT POINT TO 18N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS S OF 22N BETWEEN 59W AND
70W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 26N31W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N
OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N82W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 12N87W TO 06N110W. NORTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 078N116W TO
05N130W TO 03N140W. SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.4S91W TO
03S95W TO 03.4S99W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 83W TO 93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W
AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 240 NM N
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32N133W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SE TO 17N106W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MOVING S
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. THE
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
THE FRONT STALLING OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT
FINALLY DISSIPATES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF THEREAFTER.

THE RIDGING COMBINED WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING ACROSS NW MEXICO
IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 25N OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA. STRONGER
WINDS ARE TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE A DEVELOPING
GALE IS IN PLACE FOR THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING FRESH 8 TO 11 FT NW SWELL SOUTH OF
30N. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A NEW SURGE
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NW-N. THIS NEXT ROUND OF WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE OCCURRING NOR ARE LIKELY TO
BEGIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL REACH THE EQUATOR LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL
TRAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS THU
NIGHT...THEN REACHING THE SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRIDAY
EVENING.

MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES GENERALLY BETWEEN 07N AND 20W WEST
OF 120W AND COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED SWELL DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
HUFFMAN/LANDSEA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND
EXTENDS TO 05N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N30W
TO 05N40W TO 03N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N
BETWEEN 08W AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS
COVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH-EASTERLIES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A THERMAL NON-CONVECTIVE SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO 18N96W. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE BASIN TODAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS TEXAS AND APPROACH THE NW GULF COAST HELPING TO
MAINTAIN FRESH RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN WILL MOVE W TO NW TONIGHT
SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO
19N65W TO 19N72W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN
65W AND 75W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN ONGOING INTERACTION
BETWEEN A MOIST AIRMASS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER
HISPANIOLA TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 65W ANCHORED BY
HIGH PRESSURE N OF BERMUDA AND THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OF 1011 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 26N56W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N63W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A 992 MB LOW NEAR 32N46W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE E OF THE LOW NEAR 31N42W TO
22N52W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
TO 19N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 57W. FRESH TO STRONG W
TO NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N31W COVERS
THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N AND NE OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL DETACH FROM THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUE EAST TO THE E ATLC
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261541
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 06N91W...AND FROM 10N98W
TO 07N111W. THE NORTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N118W TO 02N140W.
THE SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.4S92W TO 02S111W TO 03.4S118W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 83W AND
91W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W... FROM 05N TO 13N
BETWEEN 110W AND 116W...AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 130W AND
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32N133W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SE TO 17N110W. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING S INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT DIPS S THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING BY TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SAME AREA WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ON THU. THE FRONT FINALLY DISSIPATES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF THEREAFTER.

THE RIDGING COMBINED WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING ACROSS NW MEXICO
IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 25N OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA. STRONGER
WINDS ARE TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE A DEVELOPING
GALE IS IN PLACE FOR THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING FRESH 8 TO 13 FT NW SWELL. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A NEW SURGE ANTICIPATED WED
NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW-N. THIS NEXT
ROUND OF WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO FRESH NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF
CABO CORRIENTES.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT PULSING MODERATE
OFFSHORE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL REACH THE EQUATOR LATE WED WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN
WILL ARRIVE AT THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS THU
NIGHT...THEN REACHING THE SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI EVENING.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED
SWELL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1000 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N47W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N50W 20N60W...
BECOMING STATIONARY AND CONTINUING FROM 20N60W TO 20N72W ALONG
THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT GALE-
FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12
FEET TO 16 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1000 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT. A SEPARATE 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N57W 25N60W AND 26N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
27N44W 30N42W BEYOND 32N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SAME 27N44W 32N42W LINE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W...AND FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 06N16W AND 05N20W. THE
ITCZ IS ALONG 05N20W TO 04N29W TO 03N38W AND 02N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N FROM 16W EASTWARD...FROM 02N TO 06N
BETWEEN 16W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS MOVED FROM MEXICO INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING 28N AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N74W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...
TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 28N NORTHWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KHHV.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...
KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KVQT...AND KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN
BOOTHVILLE. MVFR IN AREAS FROM 30N SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...
MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIFR IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...
IFR IN MILTON. LIFR IN CRESTVIEW. IFR IN DESTIN. MVFR IN MARY
ESTHER. LIFR IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN
MARIANNA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...AND FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
73W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W EASTWARD.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD.

MOISTURE...RAIN...AND FLOODING HAVE BEEN PRESENT IN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE SAN JUAN NWS OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN
ESTIMATE OF 0.11 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SAN JUAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SINCE
25/1800 UTC.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W NEAR THE
BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONTINUED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...FOR TODAY.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ALSO.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...
MVFR...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET.
PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD
CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR...AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...MOVING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA
BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY TWO AND IT WILL END UP ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
ONE...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. A
TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY
ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND DURING DAY TWO. THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH WEST WIND
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST WIND
EVENTUALLY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN EAST-TO-WEST
RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE...AND ON DAY
TWO ALSO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING PRACTICALLY ALL OF
DAY TWO. SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT
THE END OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...
TO 20N23W AND 12N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N28W...TO 21N38W 14N46W AND 10N54W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N47W 20N72W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE 31N47W 20N72W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N74W TO 27N72W AND 21N63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N100W TO 07N110W TO 05N116W. THE
NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N116W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W.
THE SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03.4S89W TO 02S103W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM NW OF THE
TROUGH...WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE NORTHERN ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND
136W...AND WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE SOUTHERN ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND
99W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF CENTRAL
AMERICA BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
07N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33N134W EXTENDS A
RIDGE TO THE SE THROUGH 22N120W TO 15N108W. A COLD FRONT IS
DIVING S THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO NEAR
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO
NEAR GALE FORCE SW-W WINDS JUST TO THE S OF THE FRONT TO 29.5N
IN THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT DIPS S THROUGH
THE DAY WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...WITH
THE FRONT STALLING OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE
FRONT FINALLY DISSIPATES OR SHIFTS EASTWARD THU NIGHT WITH MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF THEREAFTER.

THE RIDGING COMBINED WITH ELONGATED TROUGHINESS ACROSS NW MEXICO
IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW SPILLING
SOUTHWARD TO 26N OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA. EVEN STRONGER WINDS
ARE TO THE N WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING FRESH 8-12 FT NW SWELL.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH A
NEW SURGE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW-N. THIS NEXT ROUND OF WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO FRESH NEAR
AND OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT PULSING MODERATE
OFFSHORE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL BREACH THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL
TRAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS THU
EVENING...THEN REACHING THE SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED
SWELL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N100W TO 07N110W TO 05N116W. THE
NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N116W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W.
THE SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03.4S89W TO 02S103W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM NW OF THE
TROUGH...WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE NORTHERN ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND
136W...AND WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE SOUTHERN ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND
99W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF CENTRAL
AMERICA BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
07N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33N134W EXTENDS A
RIDGE TO THE SE THROUGH 22N120W TO 15N108W. A COLD FRONT IS
DIVING S THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO NEAR
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO
NEAR GALE FORCE SW-W WINDS JUST TO THE S OF THE FRONT TO 29.5N
IN THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT DIPS S THROUGH
THE DAY WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...WITH
THE FRONT STALLING OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE
FRONT FINALLY DISSIPATES OR SHIFTS EASTWARD THU NIGHT WITH MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF THEREAFTER.

THE RIDGING COMBINED WITH ELONGATED TROUGHINESS ACROSS NW MEXICO
IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW SPILLING
SOUTHWARD TO 26N OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA. EVEN STRONGER WINDS
ARE TO THE N WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING FRESH 8-12 FT NW SWELL.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH A
NEW SURGE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW-N. THIS NEXT ROUND OF WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO FRESH NEAR
AND OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT PULSING MODERATE
OFFSHORE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL BREACH THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL
TRAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE SW FACING SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS THU
EVENING...THEN REACHING THE SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED
SWELL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260721 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED FOR CLOUD CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS...AND THE HISPANIOLA SECTION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1002 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N50W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N50W TO
20N60W...THEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N71W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO
16 FEET WITHIN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N46W TO
26N45W TO 23N53W TO 31N49W TO 31N46W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1002 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N50W...AND THE RELATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTS. A SEPARATE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 26N59W AND 25N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W...AND FROM
26N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 06N15W AND 05N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N19W TO
05N34W TO 05N44W AND 04N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 06W AND 12W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 05N20W 05N33W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF
TEXAS...BETWEEN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AND THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KHHV.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...
KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...AND KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER IN THE AREA OF LAKE CHARLES. VFR/NO CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE FOR THE REST OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. ALABAMA...
MVFR IN GULF SHORES...ON THE VERGE OF RETURNING TO LIFR. THE
LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS BEFORE THE MVFR OBSERVATION
WERE SHOWING LIFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PENSACOLA.
LIFR IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR AT THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR PANAMA CITY...AND IN MARIANNA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...AND FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
73W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W EASTWARD.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD.

MOISTURE...RAIN...AND FLOODING HAVE BEEN PRESENT IN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE SAN JUAN NWS OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN
ESTIMATE OF 0.11 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SAN JUAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SINCE
25/1800 UTC.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W NEAR THE
BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONTINUED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AT LEAST ON TUESDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ALSO.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 25/2300
UTC...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA AT 26/0000 UTC...LIGHT RAIN. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000
FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA AT 26/0300 UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS
AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. THUNDER
AND RAIN WERE BEING REPORTED DURING EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. PUNTA
CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING...VFR. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE
IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR...AND LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LAST FEW
EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. PUERTO PLATA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 7000 FEET.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...MOVING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA
BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY TWO AND IT WILL END UP ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
ONE...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. A
TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY
ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND DURING DAY TWO. THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH WEST WIND
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST WIND
EVENTUALLY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN EAST-TO-WEST
RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE...AND ON DAY
TWO ALSO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING PRACTICALLY ALL OF
DAY TWO. SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT
THE END OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 22N26W 13N25W AND
10N27W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 26N32W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
27N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260721 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED FOR CLOUD CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS...AND THE HISPANIOLA SECTION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1002 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N50W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N50W TO
20N60W...THEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N71W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO
16 FEET WITHIN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N46W TO
26N45W TO 23N53W TO 31N49W TO 31N46W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1002 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N50W...AND THE RELATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTS. A SEPARATE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 26N59W AND 25N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W...AND FROM
26N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 06N15W AND 05N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N19W TO
05N34W TO 05N44W AND 04N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 06W AND 12W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 05N20W 05N33W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF
TEXAS...BETWEEN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AND THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KHHV.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...
KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...AND KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER IN THE AREA OF LAKE CHARLES. VFR/NO CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE FOR THE REST OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. ALABAMA...
MVFR IN GULF SHORES...ON THE VERGE OF RETURNING TO LIFR. THE
LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS BEFORE THE MVFR OBSERVATION
WERE SHOWING LIFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PENSACOLA.
LIFR IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR AT THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR PANAMA CITY...AND IN MARIANNA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...AND FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
73W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W EASTWARD.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD.

MOISTURE...RAIN...AND FLOODING HAVE BEEN PRESENT IN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE SAN JUAN NWS OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN
ESTIMATE OF 0.11 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SAN JUAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SINCE
25/1800 UTC.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W NEAR THE
BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONTINUED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AT LEAST ON TUESDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ALSO.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 25/2300
UTC...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA AT 26/0000 UTC...LIGHT RAIN. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000
FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA AT 26/0300 UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS
AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. THUNDER
AND RAIN WERE BEING REPORTED DURING EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. PUNTA
CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING...VFR. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE
IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR...AND LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LAST FEW
EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. PUERTO PLATA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 7000 FEET.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...MOVING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA
BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY TWO AND IT WILL END UP ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
ONE...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. A
TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY
ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND DURING DAY TWO. THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH WEST WIND
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST WIND
EVENTUALLY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN EAST-TO-WEST
RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE...AND ON DAY
TWO ALSO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING PRACTICALLY ALL OF
DAY TWO. SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT
THE END OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 22N26W 13N25W AND
10N27W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 26N32W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
27N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1002 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N50W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N50W TO
20N60W...THEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N71W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO
16 FEET WITHIN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N46W TO
26N45W TO 23N53W TO 31N49W TO 31N46W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1002 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N50W...AND THE RELATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTS. A SEPARATE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 26N59W AND 25N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W...AND FROM
26N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 06N15W AND 05N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N19W TO
05N34W TO 05N44W AND 04N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 06W AND 12W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 05N20W 05N33W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OFMEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF
TEXAS...BETWEEN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AND THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KHHV.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...
KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...AND KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...



...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...AND FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
73W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W EASTWARD.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD.

MOISTURE...RAIN...AND FLOODING HAVE BEEN PRESENT IN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE SAN JUAN NWS OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN
ESTIMATE OF 0.11 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SAN JUAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SINCE
25/1800 UTC.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W NEAR THE
BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONTINUED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AT LEAST ON TUESDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ALSO.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 22N26W 13N25W AND
10N27W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRIC AND 40W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 26N32W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1002 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N50W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N50W TO
20N60W...THEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N71W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO
16 FEET WITHIN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N46W TO
26N45W TO 23N53W TO 31N49W TO 31N46W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1002 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N50W...AND THE RELATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTS. A SEPARATE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 26N59W AND 25N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W...AND FROM
26N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 06N15W AND 05N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N19W TO
05N34W TO 05N44W AND 04N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 06W AND 12W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 05N20W 05N33W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OFMEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF
TEXAS...BETWEEN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AND THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KHHV.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...
KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...AND KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...



...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...AND FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
73W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W EASTWARD.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD.

MOISTURE...RAIN...AND FLOODING HAVE BEEN PRESENT IN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE SAN JUAN NWS OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN
ESTIMATE OF 0.11 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SAN JUAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SINCE
25/1800 UTC.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W NEAR THE
BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONTINUED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AT LEAST ON TUESDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ALSO.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 22N26W 13N25W AND
10N27W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRIC AND 40W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 26N32W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 09N83W TO 07N90W TO 07N100W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES W TO 07N110W TO BEYOND
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N82W TO 06N90W TO
07N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N103W TO 08N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A W TO E SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS
FROM NEAR 22N120W TO BEYOND 15N102W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH-
STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS ROUGHLY
FROM 28-32N AND E OF 123W TO THE BAJA COAST THROUGH TUE
MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY TUE AFTERNOON...AND THEN QUICKLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH STRONG NW WINDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU.
STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY
SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT IN THE WATERS N OF
28N. THESE STRONG NW WINDS WILL PUSH NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 15-28N BETWEEN
110-120W THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WED NIGHT AND
THU...THEN BUILD E TO ALONG 110W ON FRI.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE MORNING. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

MODERATE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT SEAS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W ON WED NIGHT...AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE ON THU AND FRI BUT SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
BEFORE ARRIVING AT THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...STRONG NW WINDS
AND SEAS OF 9-14 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED N OF 29N BETWEEN 120-122W
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 20-
25 KT AGAIN ON WED AND THU. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE FRESH
NE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SOME ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 115W.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1004 MB DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N52W IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 25N
TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. SEAS OF 8 TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THIS AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA REACHING THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO
05N33W TO 04N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 34N75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN...EXCEPT LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 27N BETWEEN 84W AND
92W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE E TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS S REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. TO THE E...THE
COMBINATION OF A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF
16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER PUERTO
RICO COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY PRODUCING URBAN AND FLASH FLOODS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ADJACENT NORTHERN WATERS
FROM 20N72W TO 21N67W. THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1021 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N75W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS W OF 70W. TO THE E...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N60W.A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT NEAR 31N56W TO 25N58W TO 21N65W THEN A S A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 20N72W. SE OF THIS SYSTEM...A 1004 MB
DEVELOPING LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION/WINDS/SEAS...CENTERED
NEAR 29N52W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SE OF THE
LOW CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
23N56W TO 20N64W. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
AHEAD OF THE LOW N 22N BETWEEN 39W AND 51W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1017 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 26N39W AND 27N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW NEAR 60W TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE ONE
ALONG 52W WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1004 MB DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N52W IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 25N
TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. SEAS OF 8 TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THIS AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA REACHING THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO
05N33W TO 04N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 34N75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN...EXCEPT LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 27N BETWEEN 84W AND
92W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE E TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS S REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. TO THE E...THE
COMBINATION OF A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF
16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER PUERTO
RICO COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY PRODUCING URBAN AND FLASH FLOODS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ADJACENT NORTHERN WATERS
FROM 20N72W TO 21N67W. THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1021 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N75W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS W OF 70W. TO THE E...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N60W.A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT NEAR 31N56W TO 25N58W TO 21N65W THEN A S A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 20N72W. SE OF THIS SYSTEM...A 1004 MB
DEVELOPING LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION/WINDS/SEAS...CENTERED
NEAR 29N52W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SE OF THE
LOW CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
23N56W TO 20N64W. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
AHEAD OF THE LOW N 22N BETWEEN 39W AND 51W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1017 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 26N39W AND 27N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW NEAR 60W TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE ONE
ALONG 52W WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252339
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 09N83W TO TO 07N95W TO 08N100W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES W TO 08N120W...THEN TURNS
TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09.5N85W TO
07N99W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N100W TO
06N112W TO 10N118W TO 06N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A W TO E SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS
FROM NEAR 22N120W TO BEYOND 15N102W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH-
STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS ROUGHLY
FROM 28-32N AND E OF 125W TO THE BAJA COAST THROUGH TUE
MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY TUE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH STRONG NW WINDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU.
STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY
SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-15 FT IN THE WATERS N OF
28N. THESE STRONG NW WINDS WILL PUSH NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 15-28N BETWEEN
110-120W THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WED NIGHT AND
THU...THEN BUILD E TO ALONG 110W ON FRI.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE MORNING. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

MODERATE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT SEAS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W ON WED NIGHT...AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE ON THU AND FRI BUT SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
BEFORE ARRIVING AT THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...STRONG NW WINDS
AND SEAS OF 9-14 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED N OF 29N BETWEEN 120-122W
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 20-
25 KT AGAIN ON WED AND THU. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE FRESH
NE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SOME ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 115W.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252339
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 09N83W TO TO 07N95W TO 08N100W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES W TO 08N120W...THEN TURNS
TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09.5N85W TO
07N99W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N100W TO
06N112W TO 10N118W TO 06N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A W TO E SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS
FROM NEAR 22N120W TO BEYOND 15N102W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH-
STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS ROUGHLY
FROM 28-32N AND E OF 125W TO THE BAJA COAST THROUGH TUE
MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY TUE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH STRONG NW WINDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU.
STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY
SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-15 FT IN THE WATERS N OF
28N. THESE STRONG NW WINDS WILL PUSH NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 15-28N BETWEEN
110-120W THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WED NIGHT AND
THU...THEN BUILD E TO ALONG 110W ON FRI.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE MORNING. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

MODERATE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT SEAS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W ON WED NIGHT...AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE ON THU AND FRI BUT SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
BEFORE ARRIVING AT THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...STRONG NW WINDS
AND SEAS OF 9-14 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED N OF 29N BETWEEN 120-122W
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 20-
25 KT AGAIN ON WED AND THU. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE FRESH
NE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SOME ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 115W.

$$
NELSON




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