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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300254
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ANDRES...THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 115.2W AT 30/0300 UTC
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN A BAND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N114W TO
11N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS ALSO NOTED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THE
HURRICANE. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY SAT EVENING
SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. REFER TO
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/ MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 101W. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WAS EXHIBITING SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE. STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N138W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE NW OF THE CENTER
AND MAINLY FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 138W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS CROSSING 140W ON
SUN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE N WATERS. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST AHEAD OF ANDRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SE. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WITHIN AROUND 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WILL SEE 20 TO
30 KT BY SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER PRES IN THE
DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS
TO 25-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY MON MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE-E 20 TO
25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 134W WITH COMBINED SEAS
TO 9 FT.

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ON SAT EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W BY SAT
NIGHT. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300254
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ANDRES...THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 115.2W AT 30/0300 UTC
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN A BAND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N114W TO
11N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS ALSO NOTED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THE
HURRICANE. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY SAT EVENING
SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. REFER TO
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/ MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 101W. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WAS EXHIBITING SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE. STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N138W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE NW OF THE CENTER
AND MAINLY FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 138W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS CROSSING 140W ON
SUN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE N WATERS. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST AHEAD OF ANDRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SE. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WITHIN AROUND 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WILL SEE 20 TO
30 KT BY SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER PRES IN THE
DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS
TO 25-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY MON MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE-E 20 TO
25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 134W WITH COMBINED SEAS
TO 9 FT.

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ON SAT EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W BY SAT
NIGHT. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

$$
GR



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300240
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 115.2W
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 115.2 West.  Andres is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours.  A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next
24 hours, followed by gradual weakening by Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300240
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 115.2W
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 115.2 West.  Andres is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours.  A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next
24 hours, followed by gradual weakening by Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 300239
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0300 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 115.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 115.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.2N 116.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.1N 117.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.2N 119.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.4N 122.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N 125.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 9N26W TO
2N28W...MOVING AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS.
IN CONTRAST A DRY AIRMASS IS FURTHER N OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS FROM 17N65W TO
9N66W...MOVING AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
6N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N30W TO 4N40W TO THE SOUTH
AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 34W-
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N82W
PRODUCING 5-10 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 87W-89W MOVING W. MORE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF N OF TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 96W-99W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S
FLORIDA S OF 27N MOVING W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER SE LOUISIANA
AND S MISSISSIPPI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N96W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER TAMPA FLORIDA. A KOL AREA IS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1009
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA... AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A LARGE BAND OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PARTIALLY
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST
W OF 78W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N66W TO 22N70 WITH AN EMBEDDED 1015 MB LOW AT 26N68W. A LARGE
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N51W. SURFACE
RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N22W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 9N26W TO
2N28W...MOVING AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS.
IN CONTRAST A DRY AIRMASS IS FURTHER N OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS FROM 17N65W TO
9N66W...MOVING AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
6N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N30W TO 4N40W TO THE SOUTH
AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 34W-
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N82W
PRODUCING 5-10 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 87W-89W MOVING W. MORE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF N OF TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 96W-99W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S
FLORIDA S OF 27N MOVING W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER SE LOUISIANA
AND S MISSISSIPPI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N96W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER TAMPA FLORIDA. A KOL AREA IS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1009
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA... AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A LARGE BAND OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PARTIALLY
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST
W OF 78W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N66W TO 22N70 WITH AN EMBEDDED 1015 MB LOW AT 26N68W. A LARGE
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N51W. SURFACE
RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N22W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Andres, located about 800 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is accompanied by disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane
Andres are expected to inhibit tropical cyclone formation during the
next few days while the system moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward. However, these winds should become more conducive for
development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 29/2100
UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W MOVING NW
OR 310 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
110W AND 117W. ANDRES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE
OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY SAT EVENING
SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. REFER TO
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/ MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 100W. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
ANDRES. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH SOME
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO
11N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEY ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N124W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF
CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N138W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW
AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE N WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST
AHEAD OF ANDRES APPROACHING FROM THE SE. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN AROUND 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT
WILL SEE 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT. FARTHER
SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER
PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH
GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.

AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BETWEEN A
RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE DEEP
TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROPICAL LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE-
E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W WITH
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE A
ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE TWO FRONTS ARE
FORECAST TO MERGE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON SAT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 29/2100
UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W MOVING NW
OR 310 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
110W AND 117W. ANDRES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE
OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY SAT EVENING
SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. REFER TO
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/ MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 100W. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
ANDRES. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH SOME
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO
11N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEY ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N124W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF
CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N138W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW
AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE N WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST
AHEAD OF ANDRES APPROACHING FROM THE SE. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN AROUND 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT
WILL SEE 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT. FARTHER
SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER
PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH
GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.

AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BETWEEN A
RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE DEEP
TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROPICAL LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE-
E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W WITH
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE A
ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE TWO FRONTS ARE
FORECAST TO MERGE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON SAT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 29/2100
UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W MOVING NW
OR 310 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
110W AND 117W. ANDRES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE
OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY SAT EVENING
SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. REFER TO
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/ MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 100W. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
ANDRES. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH SOME
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO
11N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEY ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N124W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF
CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N138W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW
AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE N WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST
AHEAD OF ANDRES APPROACHING FROM THE SE. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN AROUND 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT
WILL SEE 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT. FARTHER
SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER
PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH
GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.

AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BETWEEN A
RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE DEEP
TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROPICAL LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE-
E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W WITH
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE A
ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE TWO FRONTS ARE
FORECAST TO MERGE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON SAT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 29/2100
UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W MOVING NW
OR 310 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
110W AND 117W. ANDRES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE
OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY SAT EVENING
SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. REFER TO
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/ MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 100W. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
ANDRES. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH SOME
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO
11N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEY ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N124W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF
CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N138W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW
AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE N WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST
AHEAD OF ANDRES APPROACHING FROM THE SE. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN AROUND 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT
WILL SEE 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT. FARTHER
SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER
PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH
GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.

AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BETWEEN A
RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE DEEP
TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROPICAL LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE-
E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W WITH
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE A
ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE TWO FRONTS ARE
FORECAST TO MERGE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON SAT.

$$
GR



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 292036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 114.8W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located
near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 114.8 West.  Andres is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 292036
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 292036
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 292036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 114.8W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located
near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 114.8 West.  Andres is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 292036
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 292036
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 292036
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 292036
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located nearly 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico is accompanied by disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable during
the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward, but they are forecast to become more conducive
for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located nearly 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico is accompanied by disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable during
the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward, but they are forecast to become more conducive
for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 02N TO 09N WITH AN AXIS ALONG 24W TO 25W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 7N JUST WEST OF
THE WAVE. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N
BETWEEN 24N AND 28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED OVER PORTION OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 18N ALONG 62W...MOVING
WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE WHICH IS ALSO WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 04N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 36W AND
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING
A SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
AS OF 1600 UTC THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS FROM
29N93W TO 25N97W. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N WEST OF
96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N87W TO 25N85W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. OTHER THAN GUSTY NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL
LINE...GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS
THE GULF BASIN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N78W TO 18N66W...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO. CONVECTION EAST OF THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. EXPECT THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE ISLAND IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY.
CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY THIS MOISTURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE ISLAND. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLAND...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. ON SATURDAY...DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N59W CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 53W TO 62W. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N63W THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N TO 28W BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC.
THE SURFACE LOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 02N TO 09N WITH AN AXIS ALONG 24W TO 25W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 7N JUST WEST OF
THE WAVE. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N
BETWEEN 24N AND 28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED OVER PORTION OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 18N ALONG 62W...MOVING
WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE WHICH IS ALSO WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 04N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 36W AND
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING
A SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
AS OF 1600 UTC THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS FROM
29N93W TO 25N97W. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N WEST OF
96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N87W TO 25N85W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. OTHER THAN GUSTY NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL
LINE...GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS
THE GULF BASIN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N78W TO 18N66W...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO. CONVECTION EAST OF THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. EXPECT THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE ISLAND IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY.
CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY THIS MOISTURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE ISLAND. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLAND...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. ON SATURDAY...DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N59W CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 53W TO 62W. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N63W THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N TO 28W BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC.
THE SURFACE LOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM N QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER
AREA FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. ANDRES IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE TODAY. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND
WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 06N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. THE LOW
PRES IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N-NW THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 101W...AND APPEARS
TO BE SLOWLY AND AMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE NEAR 15N101W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH MORNING
CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY HOWEVER. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY RELATED TO THE
WAVE...AND TO THE EAST OF A MESOSCALE SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA TO
THE EAST OF ANDRES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN A N-
NW AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES IN THE WAKE ANDRES.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N123W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF
CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM W SEMICIRCLE
OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE
AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST AHEAD OF ANDRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SE. ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED COASTAL WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
AND THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
AS A RESULT. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 210
NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WILL SEE 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY.
FRESH SWELL GENERATED BY ANDRES WILL BRING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 120W AND THE BAJA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
LOWER PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW
FRESH GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES AREA
NEAR 06N88W...AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES
ALONG THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE N AND THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOWS W OF 120W IS
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 11N
TO 16N W OF 125W WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WERE
PARTIALLY CAPTURED BY THE 0620 UTC ASCAT AND 0428 UTC RAPIDSCAT
PASSES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
LOW PRESSURE INFRINGES UPON IT FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THE
EASTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 10N123W IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLACKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED N-NE OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS MULTIPLE VORTICIES PASSING TO IT S. AT
THE SURFACE...TWO DISTINCT BOUNDARIES WERE ANALYZED OVER
FORECAST WATERS. ONE FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W AND S SECOND NEAR
THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N140W. BOTH
BOUNDARIES WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM N QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER
AREA FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. ANDRES IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE TODAY. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND
WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 06N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. THE LOW
PRES IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N-NW THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 101W...AND APPEARS
TO BE SLOWLY AND AMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE NEAR 15N101W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH MORNING
CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY HOWEVER. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY RELATED TO THE
WAVE...AND TO THE EAST OF A MESOSCALE SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA TO
THE EAST OF ANDRES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN A N-
NW AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES IN THE WAKE ANDRES.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N123W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF
CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM W SEMICIRCLE
OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE
AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST AHEAD OF ANDRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SE. ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED COASTAL WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
AND THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
AS A RESULT. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 210
NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WILL SEE 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY.
FRESH SWELL GENERATED BY ANDRES WILL BRING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 120W AND THE BAJA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
LOWER PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW
FRESH GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES AREA
NEAR 06N88W...AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES
ALONG THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE N AND THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOWS W OF 120W IS
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 11N
TO 16N W OF 125W WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WERE
PARTIALLY CAPTURED BY THE 0620 UTC ASCAT AND 0428 UTC RAPIDSCAT
PASSES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
LOW PRESSURE INFRINGES UPON IT FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THE
EASTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 10N123W IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLACKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED N-NE OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS MULTIPLE VORTICIES PASSING TO IT S. AT
THE SURFACE...TWO DISTINCT BOUNDARIES WERE ANALYZED OVER
FORECAST WATERS. ONE FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W AND S SECOND NEAR
THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N140W. BOTH
BOUNDARIES WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 114.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 114.6 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Andres is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 114.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 114.6 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Andres is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 114.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 114.6 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Andres is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 114.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 114.6 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Andres is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 291445
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
1500 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N 116.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.4N 117.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 18.2N 124.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 291445
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
1500 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N 116.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.4N 117.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 18.2N 124.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291131
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located about 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers associated with
a tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable during
the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
but they could become more conducive for development early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291131
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located about 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers associated with
a tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable during
the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
but they could become more conducive for development early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH AXIS NEAR 24W. A SATELLITE HOVEMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATE THE
WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200
NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE IT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR AND DUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WHERE A LACK OF CONVECTION IS
NOTICED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 60W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED
IN PART BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 09N E OF 15W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
05N W OF 48W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO AND EXTENDS SE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
22N90W TO 15N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY TWO 1030 MB
CENTERS CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH AXIS FROM 31N85W TO 25N84W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN FROM THE ATLC
AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
SW BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT
ALONG WITH PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS A
1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM
27N66W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW
N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE
ATLC...ONE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH AXIS NEAR 24W. A SATELLITE HOVEMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATE THE
WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200
NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE IT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR AND DUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WHERE A LACK OF CONVECTION IS
NOTICED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 60W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED
IN PART BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 09N E OF 15W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
05N W OF 48W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO AND EXTENDS SE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
22N90W TO 15N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY TWO 1030 MB
CENTERS CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH AXIS FROM 31N85W TO 25N84W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN FROM THE ATLC
AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
SW BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT
ALONG WITH PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS A
1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM
27N66W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW
N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE
ATLC...ONE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH AXIS NEAR 24W. A SATELLITE HOVEMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATE THE
WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200
NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE IT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR AND DUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WHERE A LACK OF CONVECTION IS
NOTICED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 60W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED
IN PART BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 09N E OF 15W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
05N W OF 48W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO AND EXTENDS SE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
22N90W TO 15N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY TWO 1030 MB
CENTERS CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH AXIS FROM 31N85W TO 25N84W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN FROM THE ATLC
AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
SW BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT
ALONG WITH PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS A
1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM
27N66W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW
N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE
ATLC...ONE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH AXIS NEAR 24W. A SATELLITE HOVEMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATE THE
WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200
NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE IT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR AND DUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WHERE A LACK OF CONVECTION IS
NOTICED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 60W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED
IN PART BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 09N E OF 15W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
05N W OF 48W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO AND EXTENDS SE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
22N90W TO 15N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY TWO 1030 MB
CENTERS CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH AXIS FROM 31N85W TO 25N84W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN FROM THE ATLC
AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
SW BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT
ALONG WITH PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS A
1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM
27N66W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW
N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE
ATLC...ONE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH AXIS NEAR 24W. A SATELLITE HOVEMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATE THE
WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200
NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE IT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR AND DUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WHERE A LACK OF CONVECTION IS
NOTICED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 60W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED
IN PART BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 09N E OF 15W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
05N W OF 48W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO AND EXTENDS SE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
22N90W TO 15N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY TWO 1030 MB
CENTERS CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH AXIS FROM 31N85W TO 25N84W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN FROM THE ATLC
AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
SW BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT
ALONG WITH PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS A
1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM
27N66W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW
N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE
ATLC...ONE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH AXIS NEAR 24W. A SATELLITE HOVEMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATE THE
WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200
NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE IT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR AND DUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WHERE A LACK OF CONVECTION IS
NOTICED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 60W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED
IN PART BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 09N E OF 15W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
05N W OF 48W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO AND EXTENDS SE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
22N90W TO 15N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY TWO 1030 MB
CENTERS CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH AXIS FROM 31N85W TO 25N84W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN FROM THE ATLC
AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
SW BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT
ALONG WITH PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS A
1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM
27N66W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW
N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE
ATLC...ONE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290941
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NW IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 0 NM N QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER
AREA FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 105W-119W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TODAY. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 15N ALONG 101W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS FOUND
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 103W
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION RESIDED. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO SLOW TODAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR 11N102W ON SAT AND FOLLOW A N-NW TRACK...
POSSIBLY SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09.5N123W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT OF
CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM
OF CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE... EXCEPT 270 NM W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOWS W OF 120W IS MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 11.5N TO 16N W OF 124W WITH
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WERE PARTIALLY CAPTURED BY
THE 0620 UTC ASCAT AND 0428 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASSES. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
INFRINGES UPON IT FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 09.5N123W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLACKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSE
WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

A DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED N-NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS
MULTIPLE VORTICIES PASSING TO IT S. AT THE SURFACE...TWO
DISTINCT BOUNDARIES WERE ANALYZED OVER FORECAST WATERS. ONE FROM
30N137W TO 26N140W AND S SECOND FROM 32N138W TO 20N140W. THE
LEAD BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY AND THE WESTERN BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING
FROM 32N136W TO 27N140W EARLY SAT AND FROM 32N134W TO 25N140W
EARLY SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 0344 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT E
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS FROM
10N-12N E OF 89W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE SW NEAR 07N89W
IS COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO FUNNEL THESE WINDS
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290941
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NW IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 0 NM N QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER
AREA FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 105W-119W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TODAY. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 15N ALONG 101W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS FOUND
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 103W
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION RESIDED. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO SLOW TODAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR 11N102W ON SAT AND FOLLOW A N-NW TRACK...
POSSIBLY SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09.5N123W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT OF
CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM
OF CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE... EXCEPT 270 NM W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOWS W OF 120W IS MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 11.5N TO 16N W OF 124W WITH
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WERE PARTIALLY CAPTURED BY
THE 0620 UTC ASCAT AND 0428 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASSES. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
INFRINGES UPON IT FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 09.5N123W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLACKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSE
WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

A DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED N-NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS
MULTIPLE VORTICIES PASSING TO IT S. AT THE SURFACE...TWO
DISTINCT BOUNDARIES WERE ANALYZED OVER FORECAST WATERS. ONE FROM
30N137W TO 26N140W AND S SECOND FROM 32N138W TO 20N140W. THE
LEAD BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY AND THE WESTERN BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING
FROM 32N136W TO 27N140W EARLY SAT AND FROM 32N134W TO 25N140W
EARLY SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 0344 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT E
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS FROM
10N-12N E OF 89W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE SW NEAR 07N89W
IS COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO FUNNEL THESE WINDS
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290941
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NW IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 0 NM N QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER
AREA FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 105W-119W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TODAY. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 15N ALONG 101W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS FOUND
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 103W
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION RESIDED. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO SLOW TODAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR 11N102W ON SAT AND FOLLOW A N-NW TRACK...
POSSIBLY SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09.5N123W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT OF
CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM
OF CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE... EXCEPT 270 NM W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOWS W OF 120W IS MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 11.5N TO 16N W OF 124W WITH
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WERE PARTIALLY CAPTURED BY
THE 0620 UTC ASCAT AND 0428 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASSES. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
INFRINGES UPON IT FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 09.5N123W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLACKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSE
WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

A DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED N-NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS
MULTIPLE VORTICIES PASSING TO IT S. AT THE SURFACE...TWO
DISTINCT BOUNDARIES WERE ANALYZED OVER FORECAST WATERS. ONE FROM
30N137W TO 26N140W AND S SECOND FROM 32N138W TO 20N140W. THE
LEAD BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY AND THE WESTERN BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING
FROM 32N136W TO 27N140W EARLY SAT AND FROM 32N134W TO 25N140W
EARLY SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 0344 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT E
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS FROM
10N-12N E OF 89W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE SW NEAR 07N89W
IS COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO FUNNEL THESE WINDS
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290941
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NW IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 0 NM N QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER
AREA FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 105W-119W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TODAY. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 15N ALONG 101W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS FOUND
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 103W
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION RESIDED. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO SLOW TODAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR 11N102W ON SAT AND FOLLOW A N-NW TRACK...
POSSIBLY SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09.5N123W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT OF
CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM
OF CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE... EXCEPT 270 NM W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOWS W OF 120W IS MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 11.5N TO 16N W OF 124W WITH
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WERE PARTIALLY CAPTURED BY
THE 0620 UTC ASCAT AND 0428 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASSES. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
INFRINGES UPON IT FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 09.5N123W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLACKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSE
WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

A DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED N-NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS
MULTIPLE VORTICIES PASSING TO IT S. AT THE SURFACE...TWO
DISTINCT BOUNDARIES WERE ANALYZED OVER FORECAST WATERS. ONE FROM
30N137W TO 26N140W AND S SECOND FROM 32N138W TO 20N140W. THE
LEAD BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY AND THE WESTERN BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING
FROM 32N136W TO 27N140W EARLY SAT AND FROM 32N134W TO 25N140W
EARLY SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 0344 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT E
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS FROM
10N-12N E OF 89W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE SW NEAR 07N89W
IS COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO FUNNEL THESE WINDS
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

$$
SCHAUER



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 290840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 113.9W
ABOUT 795 MI...1285 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 113.9 West.  Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected
to begin later today and continue through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Andres is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 290840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0900 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.8N 114.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.8N 115.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.8N 116.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 290840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0900 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.8N 114.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.8N 115.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.8N 116.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 290840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 113.9W
ABOUT 795 MI...1285 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 113.9 West.  Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected
to begin later today and continue through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Andres is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 290840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0900 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.8N 114.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.8N 115.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.8N 116.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 290840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 113.9W
ABOUT 795 MI...1285 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 113.9 West.  Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected
to begin later today and continue through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Andres is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290606 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 59W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 41W AND 63W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF
11N. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED IN PART BY STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO 03N41W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03N51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 21W AND
29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
03N TO 10N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 32W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SEE THE SECTION
ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO...INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
21N88W TO 14N92W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB
CENTER NEAR 38N48W CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR
EASTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 31N83W TO 25N82W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS
DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN
FROM THE ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N AND OVER THE SW BASIN S OF
15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT ALONG WITH
PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N60W WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH
TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NE OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...A 1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 29N66W TO THE LOW CENTER NEAR 25N67W. NO CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 290606 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 59W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 41W AND 63W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF
11N. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED IN PART BY STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO 03N41W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03N51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 21W AND
29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
03N TO 10N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 32W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SEE THE SECTION
ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO...INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
21N88W TO 14N92W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB
CENTER NEAR 38N48W CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR
EASTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 31N83W TO 25N82W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS
DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN
FROM THE ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N AND OVER THE SW BASIN S OF
15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT ALONG WITH
PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N60W WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH
TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NE OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...A 1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 29N66W TO THE LOW CENTER NEAR 25N67W. NO CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290606 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 59W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 41W AND 63W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF
11N. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED IN PART BY STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO 03N41W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03N51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 21W AND
29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
03N TO 10N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 32W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SEE THE SECTION
ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO...INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
21N88W TO 14N92W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB
CENTER NEAR 38N48W CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR
EASTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 31N83W TO 25N82W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS
DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN
FROM THE ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N AND OVER THE SW BASIN S OF
15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT ALONG WITH
PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N60W WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH
TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NE OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...A 1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 29N66W TO THE LOW CENTER NEAR 25N67W. NO CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 290606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 59W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 41W AND 63W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF
11N. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED IN PART BY STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO 03N41W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03N51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
TRPCL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 21W AND
29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
03N TO 10N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 32W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SEE THE SECTION
ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO...INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
21N88W TO 14N92W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB
CENTER NEAR 38N48W CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR
EASTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 31N83W TO 25N82W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS
DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN
FROM THE ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TRPCL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N AND OVER THE SW BASIN S OF
15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT ALONG WITH
PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
FROM A TRPCL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N60W WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH
TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NE OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...A 1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 29N66W TO THE LOW CENTER NEAR 25N67W. NO CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 290606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 59W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 41W AND 63W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF
11N. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED IN PART BY STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO 03N41W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03N51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
TRPCL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 21W AND
29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
03N TO 10N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 32W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SEE THE SECTION
ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO...INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
21N88W TO 14N92W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB
CENTER NEAR 38N48W CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR
EASTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 31N83W TO 25N82W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS
DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN
FROM THE ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND BY A TRPCL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N AND OVER THE SW BASIN S OF
15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT ALONG WITH
PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
FROM A TRPCL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N60W WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH
TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NE OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...A 1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 29N66W TO THE LOW CENTER NEAR 25N67W. NO CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290542
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located about 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Upper-level winds are not expected to
be favorable during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, but they could become more conducive for
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.  Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290542
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located about 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Upper-level winds are not expected to
be favorable during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, but they could become more conducive for
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.  Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290542
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located about 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Upper-level winds are not expected to
be favorable during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, but they could become more conducive for
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.  Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290542
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located about 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Upper-level winds are not expected to
be favorable during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, but they could become more conducive for
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.  Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 113.3W AT 29/0300
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 9 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NW
ON FRI. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER
AND IN A BAND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 09N112W TO
11N114W TO 12N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 270 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON FRIDAY. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 13N ALONG 99W/100W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN E OF THE
AXIS NEAR 09N98W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TONIGHT AND
GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 11N135W. CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW AND NOW ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
TO THE N AND THIS LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT
TRADES FROM 11N TO 17N W OF 134W WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W-SW TO NEAR 10N138W FRI EVENING AND
NEAR 09N140W ON SAT EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE EPAC TO NEAR 03N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FROM
03N TO 05N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W.

...DISCUSSION...

A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE N WATERS WITH THE
SECOND TROUGH AXIS OVER N-CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO
EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
28N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 12N122W TO 08N125W. CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W OF
AXIS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF AXIS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN
119W AND 123W.

$$
GR


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 290232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0300 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 113.3W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 113.3W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 114.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.4N 116.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.3N 116.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 290232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0300 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 113.3W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 113.3W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 114.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.4N 116.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.3N 116.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 290232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0300 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 113.3W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 113.3W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 114.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.4N 116.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.3N 116.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 290232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
900 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...STRENGTHENING ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 113.3W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 113.3 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Andres is expected to become a hurricane on
Friday, with additional strengthening forecast through Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Some gradual development of this system
is possible by early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Some gradual development of this system
is possible by early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Some gradual development of this system
is possible by early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Andres, located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Some gradual development of this system
is possible by early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXNT20 KNHC 282320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
EXTENDING FROM 14N58W TO 07N59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 52W-
59W. LATEST SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE ZONE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS WAVE TO APPROACH THE
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 05N20W. FROM THIS POINT...THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 04N34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-07N BETWEEN 14W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
TO THE E...A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE OBSERVED OVER
THE E GULF. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS S FROM THE COAST OF
MISSISSIPPI WITH AXIS ALONG 89W AND THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS S
FROM THE N FLORIDA COAST WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SECOND TROUGH
MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-89W. BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SW GULF FROM 23N95W TO 19N95W. A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...AN
ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS
MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS NW GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALSO
REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-84W AFFECTING CUBA...JAMAICA AND
THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 13N
AFFECTING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ALSO. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE
DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
WILL DISSIPATE. THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
PERSIST. EXPECT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG THIS LOW FROM 30N67W TO 23N69W. ANOTHER WEAK 1016
MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N60W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N31W BETWEEN 53W-63W. A BROAD 1031
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOWS TO DISSIPATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 282320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
EXTENDING FROM 14N58W TO 07N59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 52W-
59W. LATEST SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE ZONE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS WAVE TO APPROACH THE
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 05N20W. FROM THIS POINT...THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 04N34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-07N BETWEEN 14W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
TO THE E...A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE OBSERVED OVER
THE E GULF. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS S FROM THE COAST OF
MISSISSIPPI WITH AXIS ALONG 89W AND THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS S
FROM THE N FLORIDA COAST WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SECOND TROUGH
MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-89W. BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SW GULF FROM 23N95W TO 19N95W. A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...AN
ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS
MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS NW GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALSO
REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-84W AFFECTING CUBA...JAMAICA AND
THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 13N
AFFECTING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ALSO. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE
DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
WILL DISSIPATE. THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
PERSIST. EXPECT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG THIS LOW FROM 30N67W TO 23N69W. ANOTHER WEAK 1016
MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N60W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N31W BETWEEN 53W-63W. A BROAD 1031
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOWS TO DISSIPATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND 270 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM W OF AXIS FROM 07N TO 11N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE W TODAY AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N135W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE
OF CENTER. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
HIGH PRES TO THE N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN
360 NM OF THE N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W-SW TO NEAR 10N138W FRI AND
NEAR 09N140W ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS THE EPAC TO 05N79W TO 03N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 85W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE N WATERS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER N-CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A
CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND
PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
ANDRES.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
28N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRES ACROSS THE TROPICS SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 130W...AND FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE PATTERN WILL
REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND 270 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM W OF AXIS FROM 07N TO 11N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE W TODAY AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N135W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE
OF CENTER. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
HIGH PRES TO THE N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN
360 NM OF THE N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W-SW TO NEAR 10N138W FRI AND
NEAR 09N140W ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS THE EPAC TO 05N79W TO 03N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 85W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE N WATERS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER N-CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A
CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND
PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
ANDRES.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
28N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRES ACROSS THE TROPICS SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 130W...AND FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE PATTERN WILL
REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND 270 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM W OF AXIS FROM 07N TO 11N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE W TODAY AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N135W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE
OF CENTER. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
HIGH PRES TO THE N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN
360 NM OF THE N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W-SW TO NEAR 10N138W FRI AND
NEAR 09N140W ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS THE EPAC TO 05N79W TO 03N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 85W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE N WATERS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER N-CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A
CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND
PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
ANDRES.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
28N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRES ACROSS THE TROPICS SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 130W...AND FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE PATTERN WILL
REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

$$
GR



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 282036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES QUICKLY STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 112.5W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 112.5 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn
toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours and Andres is expected to become a hurricane
tonight or Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 282036
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
2100 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 113.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.1N 114.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 115.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.5N 117.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 282036
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
2100 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 113.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.1N 114.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 115.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.5N 117.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 282036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES QUICKLY STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 112.5W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 112.5 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn
toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours and Andres is expected to become a hurricane
tonight or Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 282036
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
2100 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 113.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.1N 114.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 115.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.5N 117.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 282036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES QUICKLY STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 112.5W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 112.5 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn
toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours and Andres is expected to become a hurricane
tonight or Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 15N WITH AXIS NEAR
56W/57W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 04N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 24W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN EASTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. FORCING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
18N TO 22N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. A 1009 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 63W. TRADE
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF 25
KT WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N63W SUPPORTS A
COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CENTERS WITH TROUGHING. THE WESTERNMOST LOW
OF 1015 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N67 WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 30N64W...THROUGH THE LOW...TO 24N67W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW
OF 1016 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO 25N63W. THIS SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED WELL IN THIS
MORNINGS SCATTEROMETER DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT A BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTH ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 15N WITH AXIS NEAR
56W/57W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 04N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 24W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN EASTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. FORCING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
18N TO 22N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. A 1009 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 63W. TRADE
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF 25
KT WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N63W SUPPORTS A
COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CENTERS WITH TROUGHING. THE WESTERNMOST LOW
OF 1015 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N67 WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 30N64W...THROUGH THE LOW...TO 24N67W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW
OF 1016 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO 25N63W. THIS SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED WELL IN THIS
MORNINGS SCATTEROMETER DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT A BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTH ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 15N WITH AXIS NEAR
56W/57W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 04N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 24W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN EASTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. FORCING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
18N TO 22N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. A 1009 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 63W. TRADE
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF 25
KT WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N63W SUPPORTS A
COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CENTERS WITH TROUGHING. THE WESTERNMOST LOW
OF 1015 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N67 WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 30N64W...THROUGH THE LOW...TO 24N67W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW
OF 1016 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO 25N63W. THIS SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED WELL IN THIS
MORNINGS SCATTEROMETER DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT A BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTH ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 15N WITH AXIS NEAR
56W/57W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 04N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 24W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN EASTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. FORCING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
18N TO 22N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. A 1009 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 63W. TRADE
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF 25
KT WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N63W SUPPORTS A
COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CENTERS WITH TROUGHING. THE WESTERNMOST LOW
OF 1015 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N67 WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 30N64W...THROUGH THE LOW...TO 24N67W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW
OF 1016 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO 25N63W. THIS SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED WELL IN THIS
MORNINGS SCATTEROMETER DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT A BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTH ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281729
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Andres, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development
of this system is possible early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281729
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Andres, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development
of this system is possible early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES. ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 1500 UTC
MAY 28 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. ANDRES IS MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60-
 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 09N116W TO 08N113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME ON FRI AND
MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANDRES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 07N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES. MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES
OF 15-20 KT ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO NEAR 09N124W FRI...AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE
N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N137W FRI AND NEAR 09N140W ON
ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC THROUGH 07N77W
TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE
TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT ALTOGETHER. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER
THE PEAK DIURNAL   . ANY PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES. ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 1500 UTC
MAY 28 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. ANDRES IS MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60-
 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 09N116W TO 08N113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME ON FRI AND
MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANDRES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 07N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES. MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES
OF 15-20 KT ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO NEAR 09N124W FRI...AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE
N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N137W FRI AND NEAR 09N140W ON
ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC THROUGH 07N77W
TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE
TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT ALTOGETHER. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER
THE PEAK DIURNAL   . ANY PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES. ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 1500 UTC
MAY 28 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. ANDRES IS MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60-
 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 09N116W TO 08N113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME ON FRI AND
MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANDRES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 07N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES. MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES
OF 15-20 KT ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO NEAR 09N124W FRI...AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE
N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N137W FRI AND NEAR 09N140W ON
ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC THROUGH 07N77W
TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE
TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT ALTOGETHER. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER
THE PEAK DIURNAL   . ANY PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES. ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 1500 UTC
MAY 28 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. ANDRES IS MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60-
 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 09N116W TO 08N113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME ON FRI AND
MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANDRES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 07N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES. MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES
OF 15-20 KT ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO NEAR 09N124W FRI...AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE
N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N137W FRI AND NEAR 09N140W ON
ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC THROUGH 07N77W
TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE
TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT ALTOGETHER. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER
THE PEAK DIURNAL   . ANY PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES. ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 1500 UTC
MAY 28 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. ANDRES IS MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60-
 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 09N116W TO 08N113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME ON FRI AND
MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANDRES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 07N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES. MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES
OF 15-20 KT ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO NEAR 09N124W FRI...AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE
N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N137W FRI AND NEAR 09N140W ON
ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC THROUGH 07N77W
TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE
TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT ALTOGETHER. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER
THE PEAK DIURNAL   . ANY PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

$$
COBB


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 281418
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
1500 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 110.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 281418
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 111.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 111.3 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today.  A turn
toward the northwest with an additional decrease in speed is
expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a
hurricane late Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 281418
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 111.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 111.3 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today.  A turn
toward the northwest with an additional decrease in speed is
expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a
hurricane late Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 281418
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
1500 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 110.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281127
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression One-E, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Some gradual development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves slowly to the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281127
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression One-E, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Some gradual development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves slowly to the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281127
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression One-E, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Some gradual development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves slowly to the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281127
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression One-E, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Some gradual development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves slowly to the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W/55W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED IN PART BY
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03N36W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N92W TO
16N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORT-WAVE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N
OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF
SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 26N E OF 86W. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN
PANAMA COASTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STARTS TO REACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN BASIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND...INTENSIFYING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W AND 61W. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS W OF THE ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W/55W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED IN PART BY
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03N36W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N92W TO
16N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORT-WAVE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N
OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF
SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 26N E OF 86W. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN
PANAMA COASTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STARTS TO REACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN BASIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND...INTENSIFYING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W AND 61W. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS W OF THE ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SURFACE LOW HAS QUICKLY
BECOME ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS FORMED NEAR
11.0N 110.4W AT 0900 UTC MAY 28 WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1005 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE CENTER...AND ALONG A BAND W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N112W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 15N107W TO 10N115W...AND WITHIN 290 NM OF CENTER OVER
THE SE QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 11.7N 111.5W TODAY AT 29/1800 UTC...THEN
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 14.2N 114.0W FRI NIGHT
AT 30/0600 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS
THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 04-14N ALONG 98W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 09N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IMMEDIATELY TO THE W.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 00N129W. THE GRADIENT
IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT N OF THE LOW...ROUGHLY FROM
11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY
DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
W TO NEAR 09N124W TONIGHT...AND THEN DISSIPATE ON FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. THE
GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF
THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N136W TONIGHT AND NEAR
09N139W ON ON FRI NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 540 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH THE LOW
PASSING W OF 140W ON SAT NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA TRAILS A TROUGH SW ACROSS NE
COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC FROM ABOUT 07N77W TO 06N91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN
120 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND TRAILS AN UPPER TROUGH S ACROSS THE GULF LOW PRES...POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 14N114W 999 MB.OF CALIFORNIA. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY
DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO BEYOND 13N140W. AN UPPER
RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST NEAR 12N91W. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVE AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-136W...SOME OF THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WHERE INTERIOR
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES W TO A CREST NEAR
08N86W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 11N90W. THIS
PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AND THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 80-90W AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ENE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20-25
KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 7 FT AT SUNRISE
TODAY. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THEN EXPECT ONLY 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SURFACE LOW HAS QUICKLY
BECOME ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS FORMED NEAR
11.0N 110.4W AT 0900 UTC MAY 28 WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1005 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE CENTER...AND ALONG A BAND W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N112W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 15N107W TO 10N115W...AND WITHIN 290 NM OF CENTER OVER
THE SE QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 11.7N 111.5W TODAY AT 29/1800 UTC...THEN
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 14.2N 114.0W FRI NIGHT
AT 30/0600 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS
THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 04-14N ALONG 98W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 09N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IMMEDIATELY TO THE W.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 00N129W. THE GRADIENT
IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT N OF THE LOW...ROUGHLY FROM
11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY
DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
W TO NEAR 09N124W TONIGHT...AND THEN DISSIPATE ON FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. THE
GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF
THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N136W TONIGHT AND NEAR
09N139W ON ON FRI NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 540 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH THE LOW
PASSING W OF 140W ON SAT NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA TRAILS A TROUGH SW ACROSS NE
COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC FROM ABOUT 07N77W TO 06N91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN
120 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND TRAILS AN UPPER TROUGH S ACROSS THE GULF LOW PRES...POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 14N114W 999 MB.OF CALIFORNIA. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY
DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO BEYOND 13N140W. AN UPPER
RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST NEAR 12N91W. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVE AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-136W...SOME OF THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WHERE INTERIOR
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES W TO A CREST NEAR
08N86W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 11N90W. THIS
PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AND THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 80-90W AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ENE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20-25
KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 7 FT AT SUNRISE
TODAY. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THEN EXPECT ONLY 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI.

$$
NELSON



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 280840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today.  The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 280840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today.  The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 280840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today.  The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 280840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today.  The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 280839
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0900 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 110.4W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 110.4W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 109.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 11.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 675 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has continued to become better organized during
the past several hours, and satellite images indicate that a
tropical depression could be forming.  Advisories could be initiated
on this system as early as Thursday morning if this trend continues.
The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well
offshore the coast of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical
wave.  Environmental conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 675 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has continued to become better organized during
the past several hours, and satellite images indicate that a
tropical depression could be forming.  Advisories could be initiated
on this system as early as Thursday morning if this trend continues.
The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well
offshore the coast of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical
wave.  Environmental conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 10N108W CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEEP
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
AROUND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 104W-111W.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
THIS EVENING OR ON THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW AT
AROUND 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-14N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 08N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W-NW.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N121W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
ABOUT 150 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 120W-124W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N132W. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DRIFT W-SW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY CROSSING 140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N SUPPORTS AN
AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES MAINLY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 130W-135W
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO
06N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
A FRONTAL THROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N137W TO 27N138W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR
28N132W.

GAP WINDS...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRI MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 10N108W CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEEP
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
AROUND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 104W-111W.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
THIS EVENING OR ON THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW AT
AROUND 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-14N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 08N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W-NW.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N121W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
ABOUT 150 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 120W-124W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N132W. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DRIFT W-SW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY CROSSING 140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N SUPPORTS AN
AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES MAINLY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 130W-135W
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO
06N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
A FRONTAL THROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N137W TO 27N138W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR
28N132W.

GAP WINDS...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRI MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 10N108W CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEEP
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
AROUND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 104W-111W.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
THIS EVENING OR ON THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW AT
AROUND 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-14N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 08N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W-NW.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N121W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
ABOUT 150 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 120W-124W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N132W. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DRIFT W-SW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY CROSSING 140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N SUPPORTS AN
AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES MAINLY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 130W-135W
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO
06N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
A FRONTAL THROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N137W TO 27N138W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR
28N132W.

GAP WINDS...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRI MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 10N108W CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEEP
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
AROUND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 104W-111W.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
THIS EVENING OR ON THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW AT
AROUND 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-14N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 08N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W-NW.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N121W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
ABOUT 150 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 120W-124W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N132W. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DRIFT W-SW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY CROSSING 140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N SUPPORTS AN
AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES MAINLY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 130W-135W
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO
06N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
A FRONTAL THROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N137W TO 27N138W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR
28N132W.

GAP WINDS...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRI MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 1N53W...MOVING AT 13 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W TO 4N40W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 7W-12W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N89W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER A LARGE AREA OF MEXICO FROM 16N-30N
BETWEEN 97W-103W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N AND E
OF 84W MOVING W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SURFACE E
TO SE RETURN FLOW WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF JAMAICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA SE COAST
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-80W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N66W TO 25N61W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM
26N58W TO 22N59W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MOROCCO
NEAR 33N7W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 49W-
60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 31N15W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD AT 10N60W TO 18N40W TO NW
MAURITANIA AT 21N16W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 1N53W...MOVING AT 13 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W TO 4N40W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 7W-12W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N89W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER A LARGE AREA OF MEXICO FROM 16N-30N
BETWEEN 97W-103W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N AND E
OF 84W MOVING W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SURFACE E
TO SE RETURN FLOW WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF JAMAICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA SE COAST
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-80W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N66W TO 25N61W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM
26N58W TO 22N59W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MOROCCO
NEAR 33N7W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 49W-
60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 31N15W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD AT 10N60W TO 18N40W TO NW
MAURITANIA AT 21N16W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 1N53W...MOVING AT 13 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W TO 4N40W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 7W-12W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N89W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER A LARGE AREA OF MEXICO FROM 16N-30N
BETWEEN 97W-103W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N AND E
OF 84W MOVING W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SURFACE E
TO SE RETURN FLOW WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF JAMAICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA SE COAST
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-80W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N66W TO 25N61W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM
26N58W TO 22N59W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MOROCCO
NEAR 33N7W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 49W-
60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 31N15W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD AT 10N60W TO 18N40W TO NW
MAURITANIA AT 21N16W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 1N53W...MOVING AT 13 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W TO 4N40W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 7W-12W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N89W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER A LARGE AREA OF MEXICO FROM 16N-30N
BETWEEN 97W-103W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N AND E
OF 84W MOVING W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SURFACE E
TO SE RETURN FLOW WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF JAMAICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA SE COAST
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-80W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N66W TO 25N61W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM
26N58W TO 22N59W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MOROCCO
NEAR 33N7W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 49W-
60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 31N15W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD AT 10N60W TO 18N40W TO NW
MAURITANIA AT 21N16W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  This system is expected to
become a tropical depression later this evening or on Thursday while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave.
Environment conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  This system is expected to
become a tropical depression later this evening or on Thursday while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave.
Environment conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N105W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FRI MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW INTO A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA AT 0340 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT SW WINDS DISPLACED 150-240 NM
SE OF THE CIRC CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 04-12N ALONG 95W HAS BEEN MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N119W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N123W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20
KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W
AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. THE PRES
GRADIENT SUPPORTS NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM NW OF
THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC. BROAD AREA UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALLOWING
RANDOMLY SPACED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO 14N E OF 101W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
27N129W PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W
TO 22N143W BISECTS THE RIDGE IN FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH
THROUGH THU NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT NO
LONGER SHOWS WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 FT AS A RESULT. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-25 KT N WIND EVENT APPEARS LOWER
AS WELL. LATEST GFS SHOWS MAX WINDS ONLY 10-15 KT THU AND FRI.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N105W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FRI MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW INTO A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA AT 0340 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT SW WINDS DISPLACED 150-240 NM
SE OF THE CIRC CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 04-12N ALONG 95W HAS BEEN MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N119W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N123W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20
KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W
AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. THE PRES
GRADIENT SUPPORTS NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM NW OF
THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC. BROAD AREA UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALLOWING
RANDOMLY SPACED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO 14N E OF 101W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
27N129W PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W
TO 22N143W BISECTS THE RIDGE IN FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH
THROUGH THU NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT NO
LONGER SHOWS WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 FT AS A RESULT. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-25 KT N WIND EVENT APPEARS LOWER
AS WELL. LATEST GFS SHOWS MAX WINDS ONLY 10-15 KT THU AND FRI.

$$
MUNDELL



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271130
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms to the east
of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable over the next day or so, and significant development of
this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271130
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms to the east
of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable over the next day or so, and significant development of
this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 48W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF IT. FURTHER
CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N TO 10N E OF
20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E TO THE SW GULF WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 21N93W TO 14N94W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT S OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
FORMER TROUGHS ARE N OF 26N E OF 87W. HAZE AND FOG CONTINUE TO
BE REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77 WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES
OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN...WHICH ALONG
WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS
DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY BEING
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N59W TO
23N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
32W AND 52W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W TOWARDS
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 48W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF IT. FURTHER
CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N TO 10N E OF
20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E TO THE SW GULF WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 21N93W TO 14N94W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT S OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
FORMER TROUGHS ARE N OF 26N E OF 87W. HAZE AND FOG CONTINUE TO
BE REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77 WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES
OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN...WHICH ALONG
WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS
DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY BEING
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N59W TO
23N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
32W AND 52W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W TOWARDS
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 48W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF IT. FURTHER
CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N TO 10N E OF
20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E TO THE SW GULF WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 21N93W TO 14N94W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT S OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
FORMER TROUGHS ARE N OF 26N E OF 87W. HAZE AND FOG CONTINUE TO
BE REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77 WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES
OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN...WHICH ALONG
WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS
DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY BEING
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N59W TO
23N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
32W AND 52W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W TOWARDS
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 48W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF IT. FURTHER
CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N TO 10N E OF
20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E TO THE SW GULF WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 21N93W TO 14N94W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT S OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
FORMER TROUGHS ARE N OF 26N E OF 87W. HAZE AND FOG CONTINUE TO
BE REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77 WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES
OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN...WHICH ALONG
WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS
DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY BEING
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N59W TO
23N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
32W AND 52W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W TOWARDS
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
09.5N105.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 330 NM OF 08N107.5W. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY 10-15 KT NEAR THE CENTER...THE GRADIENT
IS SUPPORTING 15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN 540 NM OVER THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE COMBINED SEAS ARE 7-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE
TO CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NEAR 10N109W AND DEEPEN TO ABOUT 1007 MB TONIGHT AND REACH NEAR
12N112W ON THU NIGHT WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. BY
THEN CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS THE LOW CONTINUES NW REACHING NEAR 13N113W ON FRI
NIGHT AND NEAR 14N113W ON SAT NIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 94W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 07N94.5W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N119W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED NW OF THE
LOW WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N115W TO 09N124W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXING S AND
SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 09N123W TONIGHT
AND NEAR 09N125W ON THU NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT ARE THEN
EXPECTED WITHIN 390 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AT 12.5N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N128W TO
09N134W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITHIN
ABUT 300 NM NW OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-8 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 75 NM OF 03N79W AND PARALLEL TO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 08N78W TO 08N88W...ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N90W TO 16N96W...AND ACROSS
THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 06N119W TO 01N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N148W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM
32N134W TO 28N133W TO 25N140W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 5-10
KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 33N120W AND IS PROGRESSING NE
WITH TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR 23N119W.
UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE CYCLONE AND EXTENDS E ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

UPPER ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N121W
AND NEAR 13N102W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO A CREST
NEAR 13N132W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90-130W...SOME OF THE
DEBRIS MOISTURE CONCENTRATES INTO A NARROW TROPICAL PLUME
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NW TO BEYOND 32N132W WITH UPPER
MOISTURE SPREADING E AND SE ACROSS THE RIDGE CREST INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 29N128W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES NW TO A CREST NEAR
PANAMA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TO BASE OVER NICARAGUA. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AND THE DEEP TROPICS
BETWEEN 80-90W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20-25
KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 8 FT AT SUNRISE
THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF 20-25 KT
SURGE AGAIN TONIGHT..THEN ONLY 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES
FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
09.5N105.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 330 NM OF 08N107.5W. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY 10-15 KT NEAR THE CENTER...THE GRADIENT
IS SUPPORTING 15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN 540 NM OVER THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE COMBINED SEAS ARE 7-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE
TO CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NEAR 10N109W AND DEEPEN TO ABOUT 1007 MB TONIGHT AND REACH NEAR
12N112W ON THU NIGHT WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. BY
THEN CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS THE LOW CONTINUES NW REACHING NEAR 13N113W ON FRI
NIGHT AND NEAR 14N113W ON SAT NIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 94W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 07N94.5W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N119W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED NW OF THE
LOW WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N115W TO 09N124W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXING S AND
SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 09N123W TONIGHT
AND NEAR 09N125W ON THU NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT ARE THEN
EXPECTED WITHIN 390 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AT 12.5N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N128W TO
09N134W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITHIN
ABUT 300 NM NW OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-8 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 75 NM OF 03N79W AND PARALLEL TO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 08N78W TO 08N88W...ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N90W TO 16N96W...AND ACROSS
THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 06N119W TO 01N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N148W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM
32N134W TO 28N133W TO 25N140W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 5-10
KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 33N120W AND IS PROGRESSING NE
WITH TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR 23N119W.
UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE CYCLONE AND EXTENDS E ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

UPPER ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N121W
AND NEAR 13N102W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO A CREST
NEAR 13N132W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90-130W...SOME OF THE
DEBRIS MOISTURE CONCENTRATES INTO A NARROW TROPICAL PLUME
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NW TO BEYOND 32N132W WITH UPPER
MOISTURE SPREADING E AND SE ACROSS THE RIDGE CREST INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 29N128W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES NW TO A CREST NEAR
PANAMA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TO BASE OVER NICARAGUA. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AND THE DEEP TROPICS
BETWEEN 80-90W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20-25
KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 8 FT AT SUNRISE
THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF 20-25 KT
SURGE AGAIN TONIGHT..THEN ONLY 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES
FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east
and northeast of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east
and northeast of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east
and northeast of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east
and northeast of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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