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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ FROM 7N12W TO 4N45W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY THE N MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT WITH ONLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM
IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W
TO JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 17N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE COAST OF HAITI. TRADES ARE 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM  E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A  1021
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 55W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 20N52W TO TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ FROM 7N12W TO 4N45W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY THE N MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT WITH ONLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM
IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W
TO JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 17N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE COAST OF HAITI. TRADES ARE 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM  E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A  1021
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 55W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 20N52W TO TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ FROM 7N12W TO 4N45W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY THE N MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT WITH ONLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM
IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W
TO JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 17N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE COAST OF HAITI. TRADES ARE 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM  E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A  1021
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 55W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 20N52W TO TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ FROM 7N12W TO 4N45W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY THE N MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT WITH ONLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM
IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W
TO JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 17N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE COAST OF HAITI. TRADES ARE 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM  E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A  1021
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 55W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 20N52W TO TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171502
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06.5N91W WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO
BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 29N151W
EXTENDS RIDGE ESE TO NEAR 25N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE ITCZ...FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 130W. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF
THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION W OF 110W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
EXPAND AND COVER FROM FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 129W BY FRI MORNING.
THE NW SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER WILL DECREASE BY FRI MORNING. A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS
WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS LATE THU...WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 13
FT EARLY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRING TO NEAR GALE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8
FT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. THE HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX...WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8
FT THIS AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL PULSES OF NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N
BETWEEN 16W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 28N83W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 26N90W TO N MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY
WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE BASIN FROM
17N62W TO 16N67W. FROM THIS LAST POINT THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 17N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N75W TO
10N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR
LINE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 79W-83W WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT S OF HISPANIOLA. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT
EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE
FRONTS AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN AND THE SHEARLINE WILL PERSIST ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 40N72W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 40N72W TO 29N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 34N
BETWEEN 66W-73W. A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 49W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC TO
30N43W TO 22N50W TO 17N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
MAINLY N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 39N22W SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N
BETWEEN 16W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 28N83W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 26N90W TO N MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY
WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE BASIN FROM
17N62W TO 16N67W. FROM THIS LAST POINT THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 17N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N75W TO
10N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR
LINE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 79W-83W WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT S OF HISPANIOLA. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT
EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE
FRONTS AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN AND THE SHEARLINE WILL PERSIST ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 40N72W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 40N72W TO 29N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 34N
BETWEEN 66W-73W. A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 49W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC TO
30N43W TO 22N50W TO 17N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
MAINLY N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 39N22W SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170944
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO
07N90W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 06N90W. THE ITCZ
REACHES FROM 06N90W TO 04N95W TO 06N105W TO 08N130W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N W
OF 120W BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N W OF
120W. A 0645 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG ROUGHLY 130W FROM 06N TO 10N. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING INTO THE
ITCZ. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS OF TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH WILL RESULT IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL
GROW IN SIZE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS...MIXING NE
WIND WAVES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 17N140W. A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX IS PRESENT FROM 16N120W FLOWING NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO N CENTRAL
MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET...DELIVERING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. REINFORCING
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIG
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
ADJACENT WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
WINDS TO 30 KT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRES FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 FT THIS MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES
ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170944
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO
07N90W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 06N90W. THE ITCZ
REACHES FROM 06N90W TO 04N95W TO 06N105W TO 08N130W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N W
OF 120W BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N W OF
120W. A 0645 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG ROUGHLY 130W FROM 06N TO 10N. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING INTO THE
ITCZ. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS OF TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH WILL RESULT IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL
GROW IN SIZE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS...MIXING NE
WIND WAVES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 17N140W. A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX IS PRESENT FROM 16N120W FLOWING NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO N CENTRAL
MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET...DELIVERING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. REINFORCING
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIG
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
ADJACENT WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
WINDS TO 30 KT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRES FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 FT THIS MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES
ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170944
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO
07N90W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 06N90W. THE ITCZ
REACHES FROM 06N90W TO 04N95W TO 06N105W TO 08N130W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N W
OF 120W BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N W OF
120W. A 0645 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG ROUGHLY 130W FROM 06N TO 10N. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING INTO THE
ITCZ. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS OF TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH WILL RESULT IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL
GROW IN SIZE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS...MIXING NE
WIND WAVES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 17N140W. A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX IS PRESENT FROM 16N120W FLOWING NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO N CENTRAL
MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET...DELIVERING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. REINFORCING
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIG
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
ADJACENT WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
WINDS TO 30 KT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRES FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 FT THIS MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES
ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170944
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO
07N90W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 06N90W. THE ITCZ
REACHES FROM 06N90W TO 04N95W TO 06N105W TO 08N130W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N W
OF 120W BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N W OF
120W. A 0645 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG ROUGHLY 130W FROM 06N TO 10N. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING INTO THE
ITCZ. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS OF TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH WILL RESULT IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL
GROW IN SIZE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS...MIXING NE
WIND WAVES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 17N140W. A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX IS PRESENT FROM 16N120W FLOWING NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO N CENTRAL
MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET...DELIVERING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. REINFORCING
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIG
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
ADJACENT WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
WINDS TO 30 KT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRES FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 FT THIS MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES
ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 170546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 05N33W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 18W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W TO 25N96W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO N MEXICO NEAR 28N103W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE
S OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 18N63W TO 18N76W. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS FROM 18N76W TO 10N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR LINE AND N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-77W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE
E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PREVAILING OVER
THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT AND
SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN
AND THE SHEARLINE PERSISTING ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 51W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC AND THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 30N44W TO 18N65W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAINLY N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-44W. A 1039
MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
39N23W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE W ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 170546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 05N33W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 18W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W TO 25N96W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO N MEXICO NEAR 28N103W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE
S OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 18N63W TO 18N76W. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS FROM 18N76W TO 10N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR LINE AND N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-77W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE
E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PREVAILING OVER
THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT AND
SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN
AND THE SHEARLINE PERSISTING ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 51W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC AND THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 30N44W TO 18N65W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAINLY N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-44W. A 1039
MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
39N23W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE W ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170303
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170303
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 17W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO JUST
S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-
10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W TO S OF
HISPANIOLA AT 17N75W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 17N75W TO
JAMAICA AT 18N78W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE.
15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF THE
SHEARLINE. 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SLIGHT RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW
TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER
THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO WEAKEN WITH THE SHEARLINE PERSISTING
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS S
OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
30N44W TO 24N50W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN
40W-46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR
40N24W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-70W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-45W ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT TO PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 30N74W
TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 17W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO JUST
S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-
10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W TO S OF
HISPANIOLA AT 17N75W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 17N75W TO
JAMAICA AT 18N78W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE.
15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF THE
SHEARLINE. 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SLIGHT RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW
TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER
THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO WEAKEN WITH THE SHEARLINE PERSISTING
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS S
OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
30N44W TO 24N50W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN
40W-46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR
40N24W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-70W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-45W ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT TO PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 30N74W
TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N128W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
BETWEEN 86-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N113W TO
07N120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-18N BETWEEN 112-120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N119W TO 23N118W 15N130W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N118W TO 23N125W TO
20N140W...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF
THIS TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 23N112W TO 00N133W. THE SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING
TO PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 105W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 120W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER LONG
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE MEXICAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TO THE S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT ON FRI-SAT AND 20-25 KT LATE SUN.

$$
NELSON/RAMOS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 161706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 06N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 4N48W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND
33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W
AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT EXTENDS S TO THE NE
GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA AT
30N87W TO 28N91W TO THE TX COAST NEAR 26N97W. NW WINDS AROUND 20
KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF SE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AS WELL AS VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY
UNDER 10 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BASIN. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM HAITI AND THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N75W TO JAMAICA TO 15N81W TO 10N83W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT ARE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE
IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE SHEAR LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE
AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO
PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN BASIN AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION...WHERE
THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHEAR LINE OVER HAITI AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REMNANT MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC  31N48W TO 26N56W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO 31N44W TO 25N49W TO 20N57W. THE COLD FRONT THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 20N57W WHERE IT CONTINUES
TO NEAR 18N63W BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N
TO 31N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS S OF 24N. A 1040MB AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONTS MERGE AND CONTINUE EAST TO NEAR
30N43W TO 22N48W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 06N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 4N48W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND
33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W
AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT EXTENDS S TO THE NE
GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA AT
30N87W TO 28N91W TO THE TX COAST NEAR 26N97W. NW WINDS AROUND 20
KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF SE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AS WELL AS VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY
UNDER 10 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BASIN. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM HAITI AND THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N75W TO JAMAICA TO 15N81W TO 10N83W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT ARE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE
IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE SHEAR LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE
AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO
PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN BASIN AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION...WHERE
THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHEAR LINE OVER HAITI AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REMNANT MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC  31N48W TO 26N56W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO 31N44W TO 25N49W TO 20N57W. THE COLD FRONT THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 20N57W WHERE IT CONTINUES
TO NEAR 18N63W BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N
TO 31N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS S OF 24N. A 1040MB AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONTS MERGE AND CONTINUE EAST TO NEAR
30N43W TO 22N48W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161532
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N83W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 6N90W TO
4N95W. ITCZ FROM 4N95W TO 10N125W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 112W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 23N125W TO
20N140W. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FROM
17N135W TO 20N120W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER STRONG
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS 95-125 KT EXTENDS FROM 32N129W TO 28N125W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 14N-25N W OF 125W. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N119W TO 25N125W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. LARGE 8-13 FT SWELL ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM FROM CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 19N115W TO THE EQUATOR AT 130W.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT...RESULTING IN NLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY THU.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161532
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N83W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 6N90W TO
4N95W. ITCZ FROM 4N95W TO 10N125W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 112W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 23N125W TO
20N140W. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FROM
17N135W TO 20N120W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER STRONG
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS 95-125 KT EXTENDS FROM 32N129W TO 28N125W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 14N-25N W OF 125W. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N119W TO 25N125W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. LARGE 8-13 FT SWELL ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM FROM CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 19N115W TO THE EQUATOR AT 130W.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT...RESULTING IN NLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY THU.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161532
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N83W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 6N90W TO
4N95W. ITCZ FROM 4N95W TO 10N125W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 112W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 23N125W TO
20N140W. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FROM
17N135W TO 20N120W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER STRONG
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS 95-125 KT EXTENDS FROM 32N129W TO 28N125W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 14N-25N W OF 125W. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N119W TO 25N125W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. LARGE 8-13 FT SWELL ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM FROM CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 19N115W TO THE EQUATOR AT 130W.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT...RESULTING IN NLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY THU.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161532
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N83W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 6N90W TO
4N95W. ITCZ FROM 4N95W TO 10N125W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 112W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 23N125W TO
20N140W. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FROM
17N135W TO 20N120W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER STRONG
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS 95-125 KT EXTENDS FROM 32N129W TO 28N125W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 14N-25N W OF 125W. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N119W TO 25N125W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. LARGE 8-13 FT SWELL ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM FROM CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 19N115W TO THE EQUATOR AT 130W.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT...RESULTING IN NLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY THU.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN
18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS NEAR 27N98W WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND
EXTENDING N ACROSS CENTRAL US. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THIS
LOW IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM
27N97W TO 29N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS S OF THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
REACHING PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 15N81W TO
10N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM
FROM THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE
WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE OBSERVED E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE TO WEAKEN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
...HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS
FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W. TO THE NE...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
32N75W. WITH THESE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 55W IS
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE FIRST ONE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N59W TO 35N50W TO 44N51W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. THE SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N
CARIBBEAN TO 20N57W...THEN A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS FROM 20N57W
TO 28N49W TO 37N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THESE
BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 20N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 39N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN
18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS NEAR 27N98W WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND
EXTENDING N ACROSS CENTRAL US. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THIS
LOW IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM
27N97W TO 29N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS S OF THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
REACHING PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 15N81W TO
10N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM
FROM THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE
WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE OBSERVED E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE TO WEAKEN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
...HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS
FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W. TO THE NE...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
32N75W. WITH THESE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 55W IS
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE FIRST ONE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N59W TO 35N50W TO 44N51W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. THE SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N
CARIBBEAN TO 20N57W...THEN A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS FROM 20N57W
TO 28N49W TO 37N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THESE
BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 20N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 39N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN
18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS NEAR 27N98W WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND
EXTENDING N ACROSS CENTRAL US. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THIS
LOW IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM
27N97W TO 29N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS S OF THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
REACHING PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 15N81W TO
10N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM
FROM THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE
WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE OBSERVED E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE TO WEAKEN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
...HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS
FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W. TO THE NE...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
32N75W. WITH THESE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 55W IS
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE FIRST ONE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N59W TO 35N50W TO 44N51W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. THE SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N
CARIBBEAN TO 20N57W...THEN A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS FROM 20N57W
TO 28N49W TO 37N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THESE
BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 20N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 39N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN
18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS NEAR 27N98W WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND
EXTENDING N ACROSS CENTRAL US. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THIS
LOW IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM
27N97W TO 29N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS S OF THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
REACHING PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 15N81W TO
10N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM
FROM THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE
WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE OBSERVED E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE TO WEAKEN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
...HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS
FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W. TO THE NE...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
32N75W. WITH THESE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 55W IS
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE FIRST ONE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N59W TO 35N50W TO 44N51W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. THE SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N
CARIBBEAN TO 20N57W...THEN A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS FROM 20N57W
TO 28N49W TO 37N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THESE
BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 20N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 39N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160915
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
06N89W TO 05N95W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 10N125W TO 07N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N121W TO 24N130W WHERE IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE TO 21N140W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHIP
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
INDICATED 10-15 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES
CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS
OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 02N140W. REINFORCING SWELL ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8
FT W OF 110W BY MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL TRAIN WITH SEAS REACHING 12 TO 15 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
PART OF THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC BY LATE WEEK.

THE POSITION OF THE FRONT HAS TEMPORARILY DISTRIBUTED THE NORMAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. THE
RESULTING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS WILL CHANGE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING TRADE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W BY WED.

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 09N TO 13N ALONG 125W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH HAD BEEN MAINTAINING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WED MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BRIEFLY REACHING 8 FT. EXPECT NE
TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160915
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
06N89W TO 05N95W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 10N125W TO 07N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N121W TO 24N130W WHERE IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE TO 21N140W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHIP
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
INDICATED 10-15 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES
CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS
OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 02N140W. REINFORCING SWELL ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8
FT W OF 110W BY MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL TRAIN WITH SEAS REACHING 12 TO 15 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
PART OF THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC BY LATE WEEK.

THE POSITION OF THE FRONT HAS TEMPORARILY DISTRIBUTED THE NORMAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. THE
RESULTING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS WILL CHANGE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING TRADE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W BY WED.

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 09N TO 13N ALONG 125W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH HAD BEEN MAINTAINING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WED MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BRIEFLY REACHING 8 FT. EXPECT NE
TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 160535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N26W TO 04N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N
BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N77W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N98W
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND EXTENDING N ACROSS
CENTRAL US. PRE-FRONTAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS TO MOVE E REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS
PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N74W. A
SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 16N80W TO 10N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM FROM
THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF
THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS FRONT TO
TRANSITION INTO A SHEARLINE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N77W. SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 58W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO 18N63W
TO 23N54W TO 30N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THIS LAST
POINT TO 44N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF 21N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 40N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 160535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N26W TO 04N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N
BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N77W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N98W
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND EXTENDING N ACROSS
CENTRAL US. PRE-FRONTAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS TO MOVE E REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS
PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N74W. A
SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 16N80W TO 10N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM FROM
THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF
THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS FRONT TO
TRANSITION INTO A SHEARLINE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N77W. SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 58W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO 18N63W
TO 23N54W TO 30N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THIS LAST
POINT TO 44N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF 21N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 40N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 160535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N26W TO 04N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N
BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N77W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N98W
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND EXTENDING N ACROSS
CENTRAL US. PRE-FRONTAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS TO MOVE E REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS
PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N74W. A
SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 16N80W TO 10N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM FROM
THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF
THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS FRONT TO
TRANSITION INTO A SHEARLINE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N77W. SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 58W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO 18N63W
TO 23N54W TO 30N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THIS LAST
POINT TO 44N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF 21N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 40N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 160535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N26W TO 04N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N
BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N77W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N98W
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND EXTENDING N ACROSS
CENTRAL US. PRE-FRONTAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS TO MOVE E REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS
PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N74W. A
SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 16N80W TO 10N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM FROM
THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF
THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS FRONT TO
TRANSITION INTO A SHEARLINE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N77W. SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 58W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO 18N63W
TO 23N54W TO 30N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THIS LAST
POINT TO 44N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF 21N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 40N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
07N86W TO 04N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N91W TO 07N110W TO
09N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N129W TO 06N132W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
106W AND 109W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W...AND NEAR
08N129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N122W TO 24N131W WHERE IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 13-17 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...A SHIP NEAR 28N136W REPORTED 18 KT NW WINDS WITH SEAS
TO 17 FT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA
W OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 20N120W TO 10N100W TO 03.4S98W.
ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS PARTICULARLY
FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N118W WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE TUE. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE WATERS N OF 22N E OF
122W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE MOST RECENT RAPIDSCAT SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 15N118W TO 09N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH IN THE SE WIND FLOW. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
07N86W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WED MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BRIEFLY REACHING 8 FT. EXPECT NE
TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
07N86W TO 04N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N91W TO 07N110W TO
09N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N129W TO 06N132W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
106W AND 109W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W...AND NEAR
08N129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N122W TO 24N131W WHERE IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 13-17 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...A SHIP NEAR 28N136W REPORTED 18 KT NW WINDS WITH SEAS
TO 17 FT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA
W OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 20N120W TO 10N100W TO 03.4S98W.
ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS PARTICULARLY
FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N118W WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE TUE. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE WATERS N OF 22N E OF
122W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE MOST RECENT RAPIDSCAT SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 15N118W TO 09N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH IN THE SE WIND FLOW. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
07N86W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WED MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BRIEFLY REACHING 8 FT. EXPECT NE
TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
07N86W TO 04N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N91W TO 07N110W TO
09N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N129W TO 06N132W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
106W AND 109W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W...AND NEAR
08N129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N122W TO 24N131W WHERE IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 13-17 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...A SHIP NEAR 28N136W REPORTED 18 KT NW WINDS WITH SEAS
TO 17 FT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA
W OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 20N120W TO 10N100W TO 03.4S98W.
ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS PARTICULARLY
FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N118W WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE TUE. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE WATERS N OF 22N E OF
122W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE MOST RECENT RAPIDSCAT SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 15N118W TO 09N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH IN THE SE WIND FLOW. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
07N86W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WED MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BRIEFLY REACHING 8 FT. EXPECT NE
TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
07N86W TO 04N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N91W TO 07N110W TO
09N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N129W TO 06N132W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
106W AND 109W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W...AND NEAR
08N129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N122W TO 24N131W WHERE IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 13-17 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...A SHIP NEAR 28N136W REPORTED 18 KT NW WINDS WITH SEAS
TO 17 FT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA
W OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 20N120W TO 10N100W TO 03.4S98W.
ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS PARTICULARLY
FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N118W WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE TUE. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE WATERS N OF 22N E OF
122W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE MOST RECENT RAPIDSCAT SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 15N118W TO 09N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH IN THE SE WIND FLOW. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
07N86W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WED MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BRIEFLY REACHING 8 FT. EXPECT NE
TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 152301
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 02N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 02N20W AND CONTINUES TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND
OVER TEXAS FROM 31N84W TO 27N99W. PREFRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W TO E HISPANIOLA AT 19N68W TO W
HISPANIOLA AT 18N74W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 18N74W TO S OF
JAMAICA AT 17N79W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SHEARLINE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. IN FACT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF
THE SHEARLINE. 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO
MOVE E TO THE ATLANTIC AT 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE CONTINUING TO
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO TRANSITION TO A SHEARLINE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N76W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO
25N53W TO 20N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N30W
PRODUCING SCATTERED NEAR THE CENTER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY
E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N...AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E
OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 152301
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 02N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 02N20W AND CONTINUES TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND
OVER TEXAS FROM 31N84W TO 27N99W. PREFRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W TO E HISPANIOLA AT 19N68W TO W
HISPANIOLA AT 18N74W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 18N74W TO S OF
JAMAICA AT 17N79W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SHEARLINE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. IN FACT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF
THE SHEARLINE. 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO
MOVE E TO THE ATLANTIC AT 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE CONTINUING TO
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO TRANSITION TO A SHEARLINE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N76W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO
25N53W TO 20N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N30W
PRODUCING SCATTERED NEAR THE CENTER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY
E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N...AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E
OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 152301
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 02N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 02N20W AND CONTINUES TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND
OVER TEXAS FROM 31N84W TO 27N99W. PREFRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W TO E HISPANIOLA AT 19N68W TO W
HISPANIOLA AT 18N74W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 18N74W TO S OF
JAMAICA AT 17N79W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SHEARLINE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. IN FACT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF
THE SHEARLINE. 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO
MOVE E TO THE ATLANTIC AT 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE CONTINUING TO
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO TRANSITION TO A SHEARLINE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N76W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO
25N53W TO 20N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N30W
PRODUCING SCATTERED NEAR THE CENTER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY
E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N...AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E
OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 152301
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 02N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 02N20W AND CONTINUES TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND
OVER TEXAS FROM 31N84W TO 27N99W. PREFRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W TO E HISPANIOLA AT 19N68W TO W
HISPANIOLA AT 18N74W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 18N74W TO S OF
JAMAICA AT 17N79W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SHEARLINE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. IN FACT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF
THE SHEARLINE. 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO
MOVE E TO THE ATLANTIC AT 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE CONTINUING TO
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO TRANSITION TO A SHEARLINE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N76W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO
25N53W TO 20N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N30W
PRODUCING SCATTERED NEAR THE CENTER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY
E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N...AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E
OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152133
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
07N87W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 07N110W TO
09N123W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W...
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SAMPLED MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 13-17 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...A SHIP NEAR 28N136W REPORTED 18 KT NW WINDS WITH SEAS
TO 17 FT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA
W OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 26N115W TO 11N100W TO 03.4S100W.
ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W OF 130W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N118W WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TUE.

A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
11N125W TO 06N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WHERE
THE TROUGH MEETS THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
123W AND 128W. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD. A WEAK 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07N87W. THIS LOW
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT...ENHANCED
IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152133
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
07N87W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 07N110W TO
09N123W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W...
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SAMPLED MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 13-17 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...A SHIP NEAR 28N136W REPORTED 18 KT NW WINDS WITH SEAS
TO 17 FT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA
W OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 26N115W TO 11N100W TO 03.4S100W.
ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W OF 130W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N118W WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TUE.

A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
11N125W TO 06N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WHERE
THE TROUGH MEETS THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
123W AND 128W. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD. A WEAK 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07N87W. THIS LOW
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT...ENHANCED
IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 151705
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N17W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 4N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FL AND THE EASTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE FL PANHANDLE HAS AN AXIS THAT ENTERS THE
EASTERN GULF. THIS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TX.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN RETURN FLOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N77W TO 10N82W. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT ARE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE
IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE SHEAR LINE. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LINE IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS. A
1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N76W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO
17N71W. THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS
DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
WHILE REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT
SHEAR LINE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

EXTENSIVE MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
IS PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THAT TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER THE NW ATLANTIC TO 31N53W TO 23N58W TO
18N63W AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50NM
NW OF THE FRONT AND 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N33W SUPPORTS A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 34W AND
38W. A 1039 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC E OF 35W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 30N50W TO 22N55W WITH CONVECTION. THE
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 22N WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 151705
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N17W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 4N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FL AND THE EASTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE FL PANHANDLE HAS AN AXIS THAT ENTERS THE
EASTERN GULF. THIS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TX.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN RETURN FLOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N77W TO 10N82W. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT ARE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE
IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE SHEAR LINE. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LINE IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS. A
1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N76W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO
17N71W. THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS
DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
WHILE REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT
SHEAR LINE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

EXTENSIVE MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
IS PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THAT TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER THE NW ATLANTIC TO 31N53W TO 23N58W TO
18N63W AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50NM
NW OF THE FRONT AND 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N33W SUPPORTS A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 34W AND
38W. A 1039 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC E OF 35W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 30N50W TO 22N55W WITH CONVECTION. THE
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 22N WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151446
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 07N88W TO
05N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N98W TO 07N110W TO 08N122W
THEN RESUMES FROM 07N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W...FROM 08.5N
TO 10.5N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W...AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 07.5N
BETWEEN 130W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N127W TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SAMPLED MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 13-17 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER IS WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL DECAY BY 24 HOURS WITH
REINFORCING NW SWELL TAKING ITS PLACE BY 48 HOURS ONCE AGAIN
COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W OF 125W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 28N119W WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE
WEAKENING HIGH PRES IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N EAST OF 130W.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT...ENHANCED
IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151446
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 07N88W TO
05N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N98W TO 07N110W TO 08N122W
THEN RESUMES FROM 07N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W...FROM 08.5N
TO 10.5N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W...AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 07.5N
BETWEEN 130W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N127W TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SAMPLED MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 13-17 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER IS WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL DECAY BY 24 HOURS WITH
REINFORCING NW SWELL TAKING ITS PLACE BY 48 HOURS ONCE AGAIN
COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W OF 125W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 28N119W WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE
WEAKENING HIGH PRES IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N EAST OF 130W.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT...ENHANCED
IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 151123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 09N17W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N29W TO 02N46W. ISOLATED LIGHT
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 39N83W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W TO
18N77W TO THE S COAST OF HAITI NEAR 18N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED ALONG THE SHEARLINE. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR OVER
PUERTO RICO GENERATED ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
...ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE MAINLAND
CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE
ATLANTIC FROM 17N70W TO 24N58W TO 39N53W TO 49N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 34W-38W. A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N28W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY
N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 151123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 09N17W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N29W TO 02N46W. ISOLATED LIGHT
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 39N83W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W TO
18N77W TO THE S COAST OF HAITI NEAR 18N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED ALONG THE SHEARLINE. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR OVER
PUERTO RICO GENERATED ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
...ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE MAINLAND
CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE
ATLANTIC FROM 17N70W TO 24N58W TO 39N53W TO 49N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 34W-38W. A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N28W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY
N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150845
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 08N85W TO
04N95W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING TO 09N115W THEN
WEST BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N129W TO 22N140W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE GENERALLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. VARIOUS SHIP
OBSERVATIONS AND AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM 00 UTC
INDICATED SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 13 FT...A LITTLE LOWER THAN
MWW3 GUIDANCE INITIALIZATION. NONETHELESS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 FT FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS COMES
AFTER ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL DELIVERED SEAS TO 8 FT TO MOST
OF THE REGION AS FAR EAST AS 105W. WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TODAY...REINFORCING NW SWELL FROM THE SECOND
SWELL TRAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS TO AT LEAST 8
FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W THROUGH MID WEEK.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 135W. TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE WAS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ
W OF 135W EARLIER BUT THIS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED. STRONGER HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC W OF 125W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N120W WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE
WEAKENING HIGH PRES IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N EAST OF 135W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING FROM 16N120W TO 10N130W IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF
WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND
120W.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT...ENHANCED
IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE WED MORNING. SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT BRIEFLY IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150845
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 08N85W TO
04N95W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING TO 09N115W THEN
WEST BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N129W TO 22N140W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE GENERALLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. VARIOUS SHIP
OBSERVATIONS AND AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM 00 UTC
INDICATED SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 13 FT...A LITTLE LOWER THAN
MWW3 GUIDANCE INITIALIZATION. NONETHELESS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 FT FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS COMES
AFTER ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL DELIVERED SEAS TO 8 FT TO MOST
OF THE REGION AS FAR EAST AS 105W. WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TODAY...REINFORCING NW SWELL FROM THE SECOND
SWELL TRAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS TO AT LEAST 8
FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W THROUGH MID WEEK.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 135W. TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE WAS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ
W OF 135W EARLIER BUT THIS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED. STRONGER HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC W OF 125W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N120W WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE
WEAKENING HIGH PRES IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N EAST OF 135W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING FROM 16N120W TO 10N130W IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF
WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND
120W.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT...ENHANCED
IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE WED MORNING. SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT BRIEFLY IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 150539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N18W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 04N24W TO 04N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 14W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 38N83W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N82W TO
19N78W TO THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER PUERTO RICO GENERATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE
MAINLAND CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES MOVING E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC FROM 20N71W TO 33N55W TO 48N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N29W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY
N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 150539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N18W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 04N24W TO 04N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 14W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 38N83W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N82W TO
19N78W TO THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER PUERTO RICO GENERATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE
MAINLAND CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES MOVING E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC FROM 20N71W TO 33N55W TO 48N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N29W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY
N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 150538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N18W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 04N24W TO 04N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 14W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 38N83W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N82W TO
19N78W TO THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER PUERTO RICO GENERATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE
MAINLAND CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES MOVING E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC FROM 20N71W TO 33N55W TO 48N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N29W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY
N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 150538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N18W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 04N24W TO 04N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 14W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 38N83W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N82W TO
19N78W TO THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER PUERTO RICO GENERATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE
MAINLAND CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES MOVING E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC FROM 20N71W TO 33N55W TO 48N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N29W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY
N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 150538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N18W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 04N24W TO 04N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 14W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 38N83W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N82W TO
19N78W TO THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER PUERTO RICO GENERATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE
MAINLAND CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES MOVING E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC FROM 20N71W TO 33N55W TO 48N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N29W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY
N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 150538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N18W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 04N24W TO 04N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 14W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 38N83W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N82W TO
19N78W TO THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER PUERTO RICO GENERATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE
MAINLAND CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES MOVING E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC FROM 20N71W TO 33N55W TO 48N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N29W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY
N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150327
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N85W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 08N114W
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 08N116W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W AND
137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N130W THEN EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 24N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 18-19 FT IS
MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO
11N100W TO 05N100W TO 03.4S103W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN
OLDER SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS REACHING A
POSITION FROM 30N123W TO 22N125W TO 21N140W BY 24 HOURS...AND
FROM 30N116W TO 22N121W BY 48 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON MON. THE ASSOCIATED
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA
OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N121W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N110W...
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING 25N119W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N
OF 20N E OF 130W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 20N.

A WEAK TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
11N114W TO 06N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N
BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N85W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150327
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N85W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 08N114W
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 08N116W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W AND
137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N130W THEN EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 24N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 18-19 FT IS
MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO
11N100W TO 05N100W TO 03.4S103W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN
OLDER SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS REACHING A
POSITION FROM 30N123W TO 22N125W TO 21N140W BY 24 HOURS...AND
FROM 30N116W TO 22N121W BY 48 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON MON. THE ASSOCIATED
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA
OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N121W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N110W...
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING 25N119W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N
OF 20N E OF 130W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 20N.

A WEAK TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
11N114W TO 06N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N
BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N85W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150327
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N85W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 08N114W
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 08N116W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W AND
137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N130W THEN EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 24N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 18-19 FT IS
MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO
11N100W TO 05N100W TO 03.4S103W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN
OLDER SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS REACHING A
POSITION FROM 30N123W TO 22N125W TO 21N140W BY 24 HOURS...AND
FROM 30N116W TO 22N121W BY 48 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON MON. THE ASSOCIATED
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA
OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N121W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N110W...
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING 25N119W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N
OF 20N E OF 130W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 20N.

A WEAK TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
11N114W TO 06N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N
BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N85W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150327
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N85W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 08N114W
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 08N116W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W AND
137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N130W THEN EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 24N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 18-19 FT IS
MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO
11N100W TO 05N100W TO 03.4S103W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN
OLDER SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS REACHING A
POSITION FROM 30N123W TO 22N125W TO 21N140W BY 24 HOURS...AND
FROM 30N116W TO 22N121W BY 48 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON MON. THE ASSOCIATED
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA
OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N121W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N110W...
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING 25N119W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N
OF 20N E OF 130W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 20N.

A WEAK TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
11N114W TO 06N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N
BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N85W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150327
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N85W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 08N114W
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 08N116W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W AND
137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N130W THEN EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 24N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 18-19 FT IS
MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO
11N100W TO 05N100W TO 03.4S103W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN
OLDER SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS REACHING A
POSITION FROM 30N123W TO 22N125W TO 21N140W BY 24 HOURS...AND
FROM 30N116W TO 22N121W BY 48 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON MON. THE ASSOCIATED
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA
OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N121W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N110W...
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING 25N119W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N
OF 20N E OF 130W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 20N.

A WEAK TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
11N114W TO 06N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N
BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N85W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150327
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N85W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 08N114W
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 08N116W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W AND
137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N130W THEN EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 24N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 18-19 FT IS
MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO
11N100W TO 05N100W TO 03.4S103W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN
OLDER SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS REACHING A
POSITION FROM 30N123W TO 22N125W TO 21N140W BY 24 HOURS...AND
FROM 30N116W TO 22N121W BY 48 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON MON. THE ASSOCIATED
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA
OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N121W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N110W...
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING 25N119W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N
OF 20N E OF 130W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 20N.

A WEAK TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
11N114W TO 06N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N
BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N85W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 150001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 02N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 02N20W AND CONTINUES TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ESE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER SE TEXAS WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM NW HAITI AT 20N73W TO
W JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 11N92W. 15-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF THE SHEARLINE. 5-
10 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
REPORTED OVER JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. A 1009 MB LOW IS FURTHER
E ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. FINALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN
ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST
N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 20N70W TO NW HAITI AT 20N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF
HAITI. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO
23N62W TO JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 20N70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1038 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLABTIC SUPPORTONG
THE COLD FRONT. A SMALLUPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 35W-40W. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS MOSTLY E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 150001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 02N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 02N20W AND CONTINUES TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ESE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER SE TEXAS WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM NW HAITI AT 20N73W TO
W JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 11N92W. 15-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF THE SHEARLINE. 5-
10 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
REPORTED OVER JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. A 1009 MB LOW IS FURTHER
E ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. FINALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN
ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST
N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 20N70W TO NW HAITI AT 20N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF
HAITI. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO
23N62W TO JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 20N70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1038 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLABTIC SUPPORTONG
THE COLD FRONT. A SMALLUPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 35W-40W. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS MOSTLY E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 150001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 02N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 02N20W AND CONTINUES TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ESE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER SE TEXAS WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM NW HAITI AT 20N73W TO
W JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 11N92W. 15-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF THE SHEARLINE. 5-
10 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
REPORTED OVER JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. A 1009 MB LOW IS FURTHER
E ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. FINALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN
ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST
N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 20N70W TO NW HAITI AT 20N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF
HAITI. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO
23N62W TO JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 20N70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1038 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLABTIC SUPPORTONG
THE COLD FRONT. A SMALLUPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 35W-40W. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS MOSTLY E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 150001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 02N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 02N20W AND CONTINUES TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ESE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER SE TEXAS WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM NW HAITI AT 20N73W TO
W JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 11N92W. 15-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF THE SHEARLINE. 5-
10 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
REPORTED OVER JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. A 1009 MB LOW IS FURTHER
E ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. FINALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN
ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST
N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 20N70W TO NW HAITI AT 20N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF
HAITI. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO
23N62W TO JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 20N70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1038 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLABTIC SUPPORTONG
THE COLD FRONT. A SMALLUPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 35W-40W. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS MOSTLY E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N86W TO 06N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N93W TO 08N112W
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 07N115W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS W
OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N132W THEN EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 25N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 20 FT IS MOVING
INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO 10N100W
TO 04N100W TO 03.4S105W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN OLDER
SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND REACH A POSITION FROM 30N125W
TO 26N128W TO 22N140W BY 24 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT STRETCHES FROM 30N117W TO 22N122W
BY 48 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N122W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 12N112W...
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
REACHING 26N120W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N OF 20N E OF 130W.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.

A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N112W
TO 07N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN
108W AND 116W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N86W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA... AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N86W TO 06N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N93W TO 08N112W
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 07N115W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS W
OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N132W THEN EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 25N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 20 FT IS MOVING
INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO 10N100W
TO 04N100W TO 03.4S105W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN OLDER
SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND REACH A POSITION FROM 30N125W
TO 26N128W TO 22N140W BY 24 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT STRETCHES FROM 30N117W TO 22N122W
BY 48 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N122W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 12N112W...
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
REACHING 26N120W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N OF 20N E OF 130W.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.

A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N112W
TO 07N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN
108W AND 116W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N86W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA... AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N86W TO 06N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N93W TO 08N112W
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 07N115W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS W
OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N132W THEN EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 25N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 20 FT IS MOVING
INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO 10N100W
TO 04N100W TO 03.4S105W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN OLDER
SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND REACH A POSITION FROM 30N125W
TO 26N128W TO 22N140W BY 24 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT STRETCHES FROM 30N117W TO 22N122W
BY 48 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N122W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 12N112W...
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
REACHING 26N120W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N OF 20N E OF 130W.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.

A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N112W
TO 07N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN
108W AND 116W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N86W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA... AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
08N86W TO 06N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N93W TO 08N112W
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 07N115W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS W
OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N132W THEN EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 25N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 20 FT IS MOVING
INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO 10N100W
TO 04N100W TO 03.4S105W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN OLDER
SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND REACH A POSITION FROM 30N125W
TO 26N128W TO 22N140W BY 24 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT STRETCHES FROM 30N117W TO 22N122W
BY 48 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N122W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 12N112W...
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
REACHING 26N120W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N OF 20N E OF 130W.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.

A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N112W
TO 07N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN
108W AND 116W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N86W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA... AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

$$
GR




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