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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO 29N70W TO 27N73W TO
23N79W. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
TO 64W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS OR SO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN TWO OTHER AREAS BEGINNING AT 36
HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. N OF
28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16
FT. N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 80W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS
12 TO 16 FT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N14W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 2N26W AND
2N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
5N41W 14N29W BEYOND 19N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KATP...
AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 1 MILE TO 2 MILES AND FOG...AT NEW
IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE IN LOUISIANA...1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS...AND 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG AT GALLIANO IN LOUISIANA...2 MILES OR LESS IN FOG AT
PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG IN PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT WITH A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE KEY WEST
METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N78W 19N83W 15N84W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N72W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N84W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. SOME FOG MAY BE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W... ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR
15N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N TO
35N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 57W AND 69W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 28N54W...TO 19N69W AND THE
EASTERN EXTREME OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 31N40W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 31N40W TO 24N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N30W TO 22N36W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-24N47W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO 29N70W TO 27N73W TO
23N79W. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
TO 64W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS OR SO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN TWO OTHER AREAS BEGINNING AT 36
HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. N OF
28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16
FT. N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 80W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS
12 TO 16 FT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N14W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 2N26W AND
2N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
5N41W 14N29W BEYOND 19N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KATP...
AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 1 MILE TO 2 MILES AND FOG...AT NEW
IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE IN LOUISIANA...1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS...AND 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG AT GALLIANO IN LOUISIANA...2 MILES OR LESS IN FOG AT
PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG IN PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT WITH A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE KEY WEST
METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N78W 19N83W 15N84W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N72W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N84W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. SOME FOG MAY BE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W... ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR
15N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N TO
35N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 57W AND 69W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 28N54W...TO 19N69W AND THE
EASTERN EXTREME OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 31N40W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 31N40W TO 24N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N30W TO 22N36W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-24N47W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251002
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. MULTIPLE ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT CLEARLY
REVEALED THESE WINDS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL POCKET OF COOL UPWELLED WATER NEAR
14N95W.  THE GALE WINDS HAVE GENERATED SEA STATE IN THE RANGE OF
12-17 FT. N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N97W N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT
WITH SEAS OF 9-14 FT. THE GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE
WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N85W TO 07N95W TO
08N105W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 06N125W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 78W-
79W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT RECENTLY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CENTERED NEAR 24N118W...AND MOVING WESTWARD.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSW TO NEAR 12N126W. ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N120W NEWD TO ACROSS FAR NW
MEXICO. THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND JET STREAM
BRANCH IS IMPRESSIVELY DIFFLUENT THERE. AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1022 MB AS OF 06 UTC
THIS MORNING EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED FROM A
FORMER UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG 118W FROM 11N TO 19N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
TROUGH...AND ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. ASCAT DATA FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWED NE-E WINDS IN THE
MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
FROM 15N TO 21N W OF 120W. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG A
POSITION FROM 12N128W TO 08N133W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IS
PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS
OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 21N140W BY
MON EVENING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE AS WEAK LOW PRES
OF 1010 FORMS ON THE FRONT NEAR 28N136W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD JUST TO THE W OF
140W WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE LOW AND
FRONT N OF 25N BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 9-10 FT. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUE ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN LINGERING NW SWELLS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE NW-N WINDS ARE
PRESENTLY IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 89W...AND TO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN AT THE SAME
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

N WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL EXPAND S TO
NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W BY LATE MON NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 16 FEET
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN A SECOND AREA AT 42 HOURS...
WITH A 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO
2N29W AND 3N40W...AND TO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N42W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
19N17W TO 13N30W TO 6N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE VISIBILITY IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 22N80W 17N85W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W BEYOND
4N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGOA AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 26N58W 18N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N41W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 30N41W TO 25N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 30N39W 26N41W 20N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N33W TO 21N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-25N46W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 16 FEET
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN A SECOND AREA AT 42 HOURS...
WITH A 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO
2N29W AND 3N40W...AND TO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N42W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
19N17W TO 13N30W TO 6N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE VISIBILITY IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 22N80W 17N85W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W BEYOND
4N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGOA AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 26N58W 18N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N41W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 30N41W TO 25N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 30N39W 26N41W 20N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N33W TO 21N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-25N46W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 16 FEET
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN A SECOND AREA AT 42 HOURS...
WITH A 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO
2N29W AND 3N40W...AND TO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N42W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
19N17W TO 13N30W TO 6N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE VISIBILITY IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 22N80W 17N85W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W BEYOND
4N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGOA AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 26N58W 18N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N41W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 30N41W TO 25N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 30N39W 26N41W 20N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N33W TO 21N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-25N46W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 16 FEET
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN A SECOND AREA AT 42 HOURS...
WITH A 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO
2N29W AND 3N40W...AND TO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N42W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
19N17W TO 13N30W TO 6N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE VISIBILITY IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 22N80W 17N85W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W BEYOND
4N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGOA AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 26N58W 18N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N41W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 30N41W TO 25N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 30N39W 26N41W 20N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N33W TO 21N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-25N46W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. MAX SEAS OF 14-16 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND
SPEEDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 08N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 83W
AND 86W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 27N117W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO NEAR 13N122W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...EXTENDS FROM 19N137W TO
12N139W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W. A NEW TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
20N116W TO 11N118W AND IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
25/1800 UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 07N135W BY 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG FROM N
OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF FONSECA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT ALL THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. MAX SEAS OF 14-16 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND
SPEEDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 08N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 83W
AND 86W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 27N117W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO NEAR 13N122W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...EXTENDS FROM 19N137W TO
12N139W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W. A NEW TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
20N116W TO 11N118W AND IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
25/1800 UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 07N135W BY 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG FROM N
OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF FONSECA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT ALL THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. MAX SEAS OF 14-16 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND
SPEEDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 08N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 83W
AND 86W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 27N117W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO NEAR 13N122W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...EXTENDS FROM 19N137W TO
12N139W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W. A NEW TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
20N116W TO 11N118W AND IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
25/1800 UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 07N135W BY 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG FROM N
OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF FONSECA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT ALL THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. MAX SEAS OF 14-16 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND
SPEEDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 08N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 83W
AND 86W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 27N117W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO NEAR 13N122W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...EXTENDS FROM 19N137W TO
12N139W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W. A NEW TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
20N116W TO 11N118W AND IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
25/1800 UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 07N135W BY 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG FROM N
OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF FONSECA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT ALL THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO
25N81W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS
SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N32W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH...THEN CONTINUES FROM 02N36W TO 01N47W...SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 07N34W TO 02N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT
ACROSS THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ON THE NW GULF
NEAR 24N96W. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVERS THE BASIN E OF 87W
WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE SE OF LINE
FROM 30N87W TO 20N96W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN W TO NW SWELL. COLD DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MODERATE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY. A
NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
MORNING...FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO
25N81W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 22N82W TO NORTHERN-CENTRAL
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR WEST
CARIBBEAN WEST OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W...EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20 KT. OTHER
ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES SHALLOW
MOISTURE ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...EASTERN HISPANIOLA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 1N686W...TRANSITIONING TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 21N77W TO 16N86W MONDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE EASTERN HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THIS
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W
TO 25N81W WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORT THE FRONT AND A
RIDGE FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N
OF CUBA...TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS
IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16 FEET. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N42W SW TO 26N55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO 35W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO
25N81W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS
SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N32W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH...THEN CONTINUES FROM 02N36W TO 01N47W...SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 07N34W TO 02N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT
ACROSS THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ON THE NW GULF
NEAR 24N96W. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVERS THE BASIN E OF 87W
WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE SE OF LINE
FROM 30N87W TO 20N96W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN W TO NW SWELL. COLD DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MODERATE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY. A
NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
MORNING...FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO
25N81W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 22N82W TO NORTHERN-CENTRAL
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR WEST
CARIBBEAN WEST OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W...EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20 KT. OTHER
ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES SHALLOW
MOISTURE ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...EASTERN HISPANIOLA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 1N686W...TRANSITIONING TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 21N77W TO 16N86W MONDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE EASTERN HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THIS
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W
TO 25N81W WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORT THE FRONT AND A
RIDGE FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N
OF CUBA...TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS
IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16 FEET. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N42W SW TO 26N55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO 35W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 16-17 FT BY THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG
DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY ON MON FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-
40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N80W TO 07N99W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N99W TO 08N110W TO 07N120W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN
83W AND 89W...AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 28N116W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO 15N125W. AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGHING AND IS ENHANCED FURTHER BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 110W-118W. AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA
NEAR 39N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
EXTENDS FROM 20N134W TO 13N136W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY FROM
16N TO 22N W OF 130W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
TO THE N AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 15N TO
25N W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 25/1800
UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM 30N122W TO 15N130W TO 07N140W BY 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG
FROM N OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 16-17 FT BY THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG
DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY ON MON FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-
40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N80W TO 07N99W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N99W TO 08N110W TO 07N120W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN
83W AND 89W...AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 28N116W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO 15N125W. AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGHING AND IS ENHANCED FURTHER BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 110W-118W. AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA
NEAR 39N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
EXTENDS FROM 20N134W TO 13N136W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY FROM
16N TO 22N W OF 130W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
TO THE N AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 15N TO
25N W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 25/1800
UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM 30N122W TO 15N130W TO 07N140W BY 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG
FROM N OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE
WEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF
74W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 15
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N33W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THEN
CONTINUES FROM 2N35W TO 2N42W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
8N34W TO 2N34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N
TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER N MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE GULF. FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS
USHERING IN A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WITH NW WINDS RANGING FROM
10 KT ALONG THE TX COAST...TO AROUND 25 KT JUST NW OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEAR 31N81W...ACROSS FL AND
INTO THE GULF NEAR 27N82W TO NEAR CANCUN AT 21N87W AND THEN
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS FL AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W AND THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SE WINDS TO 25 KT ARE SE OF THE TROUGH. W WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT
ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE GULF BASIN AND WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF ON SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW AND EXTENDS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CANCUN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE TRADEWINDS
SHIFT TO THE SW TO 10 TO 15 KT WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THEN W AROUND 20 KT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT...THEN NW AT 15 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OTHER
ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHOWERS
OVER PUERTO RICO...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO EXTEND FROM N COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA TO W CUBA AND OVER THE W
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO W
CUBA TO HONDURAS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY.
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE
ISLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS LOW TO 31N81W AND ACROSS FL NEAR 28N82W.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N79W AND ACROSS FL NEAR
27N81W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. S TO SW WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. FARTHER EAST...A UPPER TROUGH ALONG 46W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 32N44W TO
26W60W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO
27N66W AND THEN TO A WARM FRONT TO 31N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO
22N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 160
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS N OF 23N. A STATIONARY 1036 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 41N19W WHICH SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO 30N60W TO W CUBA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
DISSIPATE WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC
FROM THE SE US ON MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE
WEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF
74W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 15
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N33W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THEN
CONTINUES FROM 2N35W TO 2N42W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
8N34W TO 2N34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N
TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER N MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE GULF. FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS
USHERING IN A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WITH NW WINDS RANGING FROM
10 KT ALONG THE TX COAST...TO AROUND 25 KT JUST NW OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEAR 31N81W...ACROSS FL AND
INTO THE GULF NEAR 27N82W TO NEAR CANCUN AT 21N87W AND THEN
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS FL AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W AND THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SE WINDS TO 25 KT ARE SE OF THE TROUGH. W WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT
ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE GULF BASIN AND WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF ON SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW AND EXTENDS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CANCUN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE TRADEWINDS
SHIFT TO THE SW TO 10 TO 15 KT WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THEN W AROUND 20 KT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT...THEN NW AT 15 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OTHER
ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHOWERS
OVER PUERTO RICO...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO EXTEND FROM N COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA TO W CUBA AND OVER THE W
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO W
CUBA TO HONDURAS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY.
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE
ISLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS LOW TO 31N81W AND ACROSS FL NEAR 28N82W.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N79W AND ACROSS FL NEAR
27N81W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. S TO SW WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. FARTHER EAST...A UPPER TROUGH ALONG 46W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 32N44W TO
26W60W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO
27N66W AND THEN TO A WARM FRONT TO 31N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO
22N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 160
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS N OF 23N. A STATIONARY 1036 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 41N19W WHICH SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO 30N60W TO W CUBA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
DISSIPATE WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC
FROM THE SE US ON MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE
WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD DENSE
AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE
GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 19 FT AT THE PEAK WIND TIME
FRAME AROUND 25/0000 UTC THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW
TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 05N100W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 07N107W TO 06N120W TO 06N128W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W AND 89W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N116W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO 15N128W. AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGHING AND IS ENHANCED FURTHER BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 112W-118W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
38N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
EXTENDS FROM 12N138W TO 17N134W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS
REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY W OF
A TRIANGLE SHAPED AREA W OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 21N125W TO
13N140W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND
THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT ALONG
A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 24N140W. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS...HOWEVER THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING FROM THE NW
IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N125W
TO 16N132W TO 08N140W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG
FROM N OF 27N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON...AND STARTING BACK UP SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE
WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD DENSE
AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE
GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 19 FT AT THE PEAK WIND TIME
FRAME AROUND 25/0000 UTC THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW
TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 05N100W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 07N107W TO 06N120W TO 06N128W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W AND 89W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N116W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO 15N128W. AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGHING AND IS ENHANCED FURTHER BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 112W-118W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
38N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
EXTENDS FROM 12N138W TO 17N134W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS
REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY W OF
A TRIANGLE SHAPED AREA W OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 21N125W TO
13N140W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND
THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT ALONG
A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 24N140W. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS...HOWEVER THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING FROM THE NW
IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N125W
TO 16N132W TO 08N140W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG
FROM N OF 27N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON...AND STARTING BACK UP SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE
WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD DENSE
AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE
GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 19 FT AT THE PEAK WIND TIME
FRAME AROUND 25/0000 UTC THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW
TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 05N100W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 07N107W TO 06N120W TO 06N128W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W AND 89W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N116W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO 15N128W. AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGHING AND IS ENHANCED FURTHER BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 112W-118W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
38N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
EXTENDS FROM 12N138W TO 17N134W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS
REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY W OF
A TRIANGLE SHAPED AREA W OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 21N125W TO
13N140W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND
THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT ALONG
A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 24N140W. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS...HOWEVER THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING FROM THE NW
IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N125W
TO 16N132W TO 08N140W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG
FROM N OF 27N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON...AND STARTING BACK UP SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE
WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD DENSE
AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE
GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 19 FT AT THE PEAK WIND TIME
FRAME AROUND 25/0000 UTC THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW
TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 05N100W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 07N107W TO 06N120W TO 06N128W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W AND 89W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N116W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO 15N128W. AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGHING AND IS ENHANCED FURTHER BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 112W-118W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
38N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
EXTENDS FROM 12N138W TO 17N134W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS
REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY W OF
A TRIANGLE SHAPED AREA W OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 21N125W TO
13N140W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND
THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT ALONG
A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 24N140W. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS...HOWEVER THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING FROM THE NW
IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N125W
TO 16N132W TO 08N140W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG
FROM N OF 27N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON...AND STARTING BACK UP SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE
WEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF
76W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 13
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
18 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W...TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N23W AND 1N30W...AND 1N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO
6N BETWEEN 29W AND 41W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N24W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N34W 16N43W TO 7N54W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 275 NM TO 400 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 3N47W TO 6N36W TO 11N30W...AND
BEYOND 17N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 700 MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO 27N86W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N89W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INLAND CENTRAL U.S.A. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD AND IT
HAS BEEN MOVING MORE IN PHASE WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS OR SO.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN ITS BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN FLORIDA...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W...TO 28N80W TO
24N83W AND TO 20N87W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...TO A MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 23N99W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHHV...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...
KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. CLEAR SKIES/CLEARING SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS GULF
SHORES ALABAMA. CLEARING SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL ALABAMA
TO THE WEST OF GULF SHORES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER COVER THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN
AREA... AND TO SARASOTA...AND FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 76W EASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO IS ALONG 76W FROM CUBA NORTHWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N90W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM BARAHONA TO
SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO
START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE NEAR 20N81W...MOVING TO
HISPANIOLA AT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TIME...ENDING NEAR 19N60W AT
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N59W TO HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO
24N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N48W TO 28N55W AND 26N61W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
26N61W TO 26N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N47W
TO 26N49W AND 22N53W.SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N62W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N42W 30N43W 24N47W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 39W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 27N33W TO 20N40W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N47W TO 22N53W PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE
WEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF
76W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 13
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
18 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W...TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N23W AND 1N30W...AND 1N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO
6N BETWEEN 29W AND 41W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N24W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N34W 16N43W TO 7N54W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 275 NM TO 400 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 3N47W TO 6N36W TO 11N30W...AND
BEYOND 17N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 700 MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO 27N86W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N89W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INLAND CENTRAL U.S.A. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD AND IT
HAS BEEN MOVING MORE IN PHASE WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS OR SO.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN ITS BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN FLORIDA...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W...TO 28N80W TO
24N83W AND TO 20N87W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...TO A MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 23N99W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHHV...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...
KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. CLEAR SKIES/CLEARING SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS GULF
SHORES ALABAMA. CLEARING SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL ALABAMA
TO THE WEST OF GULF SHORES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER COVER THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN
AREA... AND TO SARASOTA...AND FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 76W EASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO IS ALONG 76W FROM CUBA NORTHWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N90W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM BARAHONA TO
SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO
START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE NEAR 20N81W...MOVING TO
HISPANIOLA AT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TIME...ENDING NEAR 19N60W AT
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N59W TO HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO
24N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N48W TO 28N55W AND 26N61W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
26N61W TO 26N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N47W
TO 26N49W AND 22N53W.SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N62W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N42W 30N43W 24N47W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 39W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 27N33W TO 20N40W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N47W TO 22N53W PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE
WEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF
76W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 13
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
18 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W...TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N23W AND 1N30W...AND 1N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO
6N BETWEEN 29W AND 41W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N24W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N34W 16N43W TO 7N54W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 275 NM TO 400 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 3N47W TO 6N36W TO 11N30W...AND
BEYOND 17N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 700 MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO 27N86W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N89W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INLAND CENTRAL U.S.A. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD AND IT
HAS BEEN MOVING MORE IN PHASE WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS OR SO.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN ITS BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN FLORIDA...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W...TO 28N80W TO
24N83W AND TO 20N87W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...TO A MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 23N99W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHHV...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...
KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. CLEAR SKIES/CLEARING SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS GULF
SHORES ALABAMA. CLEARING SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL ALABAMA
TO THE WEST OF GULF SHORES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER COVER THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN
AREA... AND TO SARASOTA...AND FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 76W EASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO IS ALONG 76W FROM CUBA NORTHWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N90W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM BARAHONA TO
SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO
START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE NEAR 20N81W...MOVING TO
HISPANIOLA AT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TIME...ENDING NEAR 19N60W AT
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N59W TO HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO
24N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N48W TO 28N55W AND 26N61W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
26N61W TO 26N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N47W
TO 26N49W AND 22N53W.SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N62W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N42W 30N43W 24N47W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 39W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 27N33W TO 20N40W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N47W TO 22N53W PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE
WEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF
76W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 13
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
18 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W...TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N23W AND 1N30W...AND 1N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO
6N BETWEEN 29W AND 41W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N24W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N34W 16N43W TO 7N54W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 275 NM TO 400 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 3N47W TO 6N36W TO 11N30W...AND
BEYOND 17N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 700 MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO 27N86W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N89W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INLAND CENTRAL U.S.A. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD AND IT
HAS BEEN MOVING MORE IN PHASE WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS OR SO.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN ITS BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN FLORIDA...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W...TO 28N80W TO
24N83W AND TO 20N87W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...TO A MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 23N99W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHHV...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...
KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. CLEAR SKIES/CLEARING SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS GULF
SHORES ALABAMA. CLEARING SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL ALABAMA
TO THE WEST OF GULF SHORES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER COVER THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN
AREA... AND TO SARASOTA...AND FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 76W EASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO IS ALONG 76W FROM CUBA NORTHWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N90W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM BARAHONA TO
SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO
START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE NEAR 20N81W...MOVING TO
HISPANIOLA AT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TIME...ENDING NEAR 19N60W AT
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N59W TO HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO
24N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N48W TO 28N55W AND 26N61W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
26N61W TO 26N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N47W
TO 26N49W AND 22N53W.SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N62W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N42W 30N43W 24N47W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 39W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 27N33W TO 20N40W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N47W TO 22N53W PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE
WINDS OF 30-35 KT HAVE JUST RECENTLY COMMENCED OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN OF PART OF THE GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB
SETTLES IN OVER EASTERN MEXICO WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING
SURGING SWD ACROSS SE MEXICO. COLD DENSE BEING USHERED IN BY
THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE ISTMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO LATE SUN NIGHT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER WARM 27.5-28.5 DEG CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 30-35 KT WINDS WILL PEAK TO 40 KT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW
TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N90W TO 07N101W.
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N101W TO 07N111W TO 07N120W TO 07N130W
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
110W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING S IS CENTERED NEAR 18N127W.
THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
SW U.S. SW TO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE
LOW...AND CONTINUES SW FROM THERE TO NEAR 12N135W. A JET STREAM
BRANCH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...AND
NEWD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ENE TO THE SE OF THE LOW IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY
UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 115W-119W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS A
STRONGER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS JUST W OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SEPARATE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS MENTIONED ABOVE
...AND TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TO NEAR 21N115W BY LATE SUN NIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH MON.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
40N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW NEAR 18N127W...EXTENDS FROM
18N131W TO 12N137W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0654 UTC THIS MORNING
REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 16N TO 21N W
OF THE TROUGH DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SEWD
THROUGH THE NW WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SEC. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT ALONG A
POSITION ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 30N138W TO 26N140W. WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER THE
EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO BE
SITUATED TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N126W TO 19N130W TO
10N140W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG
FROM 25N TO 30N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON...AND STARTING BACK UP SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE
WINDS OF 30-35 KT HAVE JUST RECENTLY COMMENCED OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN OF PART OF THE GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB
SETTLES IN OVER EASTERN MEXICO WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING
SURGING SWD ACROSS SE MEXICO. COLD DENSE BEING USHERED IN BY
THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE ISTMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO LATE SUN NIGHT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER WARM 27.5-28.5 DEG CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 30-35 KT WINDS WILL PEAK TO 40 KT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW
TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N90W TO 07N101W.
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N101W TO 07N111W TO 07N120W TO 07N130W
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
110W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING S IS CENTERED NEAR 18N127W.
THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
SW U.S. SW TO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE
LOW...AND CONTINUES SW FROM THERE TO NEAR 12N135W. A JET STREAM
BRANCH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...AND
NEWD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ENE TO THE SE OF THE LOW IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY
UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 115W-119W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS A
STRONGER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS JUST W OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SEPARATE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS MENTIONED ABOVE
...AND TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TO NEAR 21N115W BY LATE SUN NIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH MON.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
40N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW NEAR 18N127W...EXTENDS FROM
18N131W TO 12N137W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0654 UTC THIS MORNING
REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 16N TO 21N W
OF THE TROUGH DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SEWD
THROUGH THE NW WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SEC. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT ALONG A
POSITION ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 30N138W TO 26N140W. WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER THE
EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO BE
SITUATED TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N126W TO 19N130W TO
10N140W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG
FROM 25N TO 30N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON...AND STARTING BACK UP SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE
WINDS OF 30-35 KT HAVE JUST RECENTLY COMMENCED OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN OF PART OF THE GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB
SETTLES IN OVER EASTERN MEXICO WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING
SURGING SWD ACROSS SE MEXICO. COLD DENSE BEING USHERED IN BY
THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE ISTMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO LATE SUN NIGHT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER WARM 27.5-28.5 DEG CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 30-35 KT WINDS WILL PEAK TO 40 KT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW
TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N90W TO 07N101W.
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N101W TO 07N111W TO 07N120W TO 07N130W
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
110W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING S IS CENTERED NEAR 18N127W.
THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
SW U.S. SW TO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE
LOW...AND CONTINUES SW FROM THERE TO NEAR 12N135W. A JET STREAM
BRANCH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...AND
NEWD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ENE TO THE SE OF THE LOW IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY
UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 115W-119W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS A
STRONGER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS JUST W OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SEPARATE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS MENTIONED ABOVE
...AND TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TO NEAR 21N115W BY LATE SUN NIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH MON.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
40N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW NEAR 18N127W...EXTENDS FROM
18N131W TO 12N137W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0654 UTC THIS MORNING
REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 16N TO 21N W
OF THE TROUGH DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SEWD
THROUGH THE NW WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SEC. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT ALONG A
POSITION ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 30N138W TO 26N140W. WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER THE
EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO BE
SITUATED TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N126W TO 19N130W TO
10N140W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG
FROM 25N TO 30N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON...AND STARTING BACK UP SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE
WINDS OF 30-35 KT HAVE JUST RECENTLY COMMENCED OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN OF PART OF THE GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB
SETTLES IN OVER EASTERN MEXICO WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING
SURGING SWD ACROSS SE MEXICO. COLD DENSE BEING USHERED IN BY
THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE ISTMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO LATE SUN NIGHT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER WARM 27.5-28.5 DEG CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 30-35 KT WINDS WILL PEAK TO 40 KT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW
TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N90W TO 07N101W.
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N101W TO 07N111W TO 07N120W TO 07N130W
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
110W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING S IS CENTERED NEAR 18N127W.
THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
SW U.S. SW TO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE
LOW...AND CONTINUES SW FROM THERE TO NEAR 12N135W. A JET STREAM
BRANCH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...AND
NEWD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ENE TO THE SE OF THE LOW IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY
UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 115W-119W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS A
STRONGER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS JUST W OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SEPARATE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS MENTIONED ABOVE
...AND TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TO NEAR 21N115W BY LATE SUN NIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH MON.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
40N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW NEAR 18N127W...EXTENDS FROM
18N131W TO 12N137W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0654 UTC THIS MORNING
REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 16N TO 21N W
OF THE TROUGH DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SEWD
THROUGH THE NW WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SEC. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT ALONG A
POSITION ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 30N138W TO 26N140W. WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER THE
EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO BE
SITUATED TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N126W TO 19N130W TO
10N140W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG
FROM 25N TO 30N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON...AND STARTING BACK UP SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. EXPECT
SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.COLD FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 18.5N93W. S OF 21N W OF 94W N WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W...TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO
2N29W 3N44W AND 2N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM
2N TO 4N BETWEEN 6W AND 9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N24W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N34W 16N43W TO 7N54W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO 320 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 5N45W TO 7N34W 12N25W...AND BEYOND
18N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 700 MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO
26N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MORE INLAND IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A....ABOUT 300 NM TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N82W 25N85W
22N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN
FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 31N...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGVX...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KVBS... KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...
KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT... KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...AND
KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...IN MISSISSIPPI...IN ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM PERRY
WESTWARD...RAIN AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BROOKSVILLE TO
SARASOTA...AND TO PUNTA GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 76W EASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO IS ALONG 80W FROM CUBA NORTHWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 6N86W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO
START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE NEAR 20N81W...MOVING TO
HISPANIOLA AT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TIME...ENDING NEAR 19N60W AT
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N59W TO HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
25N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N50W TO 30N53W AND 27N59W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
27N59W TO 27N69W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N47W TO 26N49W AND 22N51W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N44W 30N45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 28N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 39W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N37W TO 21N42W AND
15N52W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N45W TO 13N53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. EXPECT
SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.COLD FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 18.5N93W. S OF 21N W OF 94W N WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W...TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO
2N29W 3N44W AND 2N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM
2N TO 4N BETWEEN 6W AND 9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N24W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N34W 16N43W TO 7N54W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO 320 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 5N45W TO 7N34W 12N25W...AND BEYOND
18N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 700 MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO
26N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MORE INLAND IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A....ABOUT 300 NM TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N82W 25N85W
22N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN
FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 31N...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGVX...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KVBS... KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...
KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT... KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...AND
KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...IN MISSISSIPPI...IN ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM PERRY
WESTWARD...RAIN AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BROOKSVILLE TO
SARASOTA...AND TO PUNTA GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 76W EASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO IS ALONG 80W FROM CUBA NORTHWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 6N86W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO
START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE NEAR 20N81W...MOVING TO
HISPANIOLA AT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TIME...ENDING NEAR 19N60W AT
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N59W TO HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
25N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N50W TO 30N53W AND 27N59W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
27N59W TO 27N69W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N47W TO 26N49W AND 22N51W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N44W 30N45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 28N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 39W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N37W TO 21N42W AND
15N52W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N45W TO 13N53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240333
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS
IN THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE BY
EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT BY
SAT AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. THIS IS FORECAST
TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. A RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO
TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS
PULSING OF WINDS IS EXPECTED ON TUE AND WED. THIS GAP WIND EVENT
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N77W TO 06N90W TO 07N100W. ITCZ FROM
07N100W TO 06N120W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
02N TO 04N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 39N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 19N127W...EXTENDS FROM 20N131W TO 14N133W
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 128W AND 135W DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SPREADING ACROSS
THE NW WATERS. AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 13 FT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SWELL EVENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM
FROM 30N138W TO 26N140W BY SUN EVENING...FROM 30N135W TO 24N140W
BY MON MORNING...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE NW WATERS MON NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 25N
AND 30N THIS EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ALSO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240333
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS
IN THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE BY
EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT BY
SAT AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. THIS IS FORECAST
TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. A RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO
TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS
PULSING OF WINDS IS EXPECTED ON TUE AND WED. THIS GAP WIND EVENT
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N77W TO 06N90W TO 07N100W. ITCZ FROM
07N100W TO 06N120W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
02N TO 04N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 39N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 19N127W...EXTENDS FROM 20N131W TO 14N133W
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 128W AND 135W DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SPREADING ACROSS
THE NW WATERS. AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 13 FT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SWELL EVENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM
FROM 30N138W TO 26N140W BY SUN EVENING...FROM 30N135W TO 24N140W
BY MON MORNING...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE NW WATERS MON NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 25N
AND 30N THIS EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ALSO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 232344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 21N W
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
30N87W TO 18N94W. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT N OF 29N W OF 76W IN
THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N26W TO 3N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 23W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N87W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO
BEYOND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N
OF 26N. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT. 10-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E
OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER TEXAS...WHILE BROAD RIDGING WITH SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT
25N80W TO BELIZE AT 17N88W WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
PUERTO RICO...AND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT
25N80W TO BELIZE AT 17N88W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE
TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL E OF FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT DUE TO MOIST TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS REACHED THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST N OF 29N W OF 80W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 29N60W TO
27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N48W TO
24N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N BETWEEN
42W-48W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR THE AZORES AT 38N23W. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 21N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO INCLUDE OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N42W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT
TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 25N80W WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF 28N
WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE COLD FRONT FROM 32N41W TO
23N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KT THROUGH SUN MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT
BY LATE SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WIND EVENT...
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DURING TUE AFTERNOON BUT INCREASING AGAIN WED
MORNING...AND LASTING INTO FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N85W TO 07N91W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N91W TO 06N110W TO 04N126W TO 07N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N130W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W...EXTENDS FROM 19N132W TO 15N135W WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SWEEPING INTO NW
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS OF 12-13 FT N OF 15N W OF 133W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM
31N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W BY SUN NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE
NW WATERS MON NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 22N136W...THEN
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 23N
AND 27N THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ALSO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KT THROUGH SUN MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT
BY LATE SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WIND EVENT...
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DURING TUE AFTERNOON BUT INCREASING AGAIN WED
MORNING...AND LASTING INTO FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N85W TO 07N91W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N91W TO 06N110W TO 04N126W TO 07N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N130W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W...EXTENDS FROM 19N132W TO 15N135W WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SWEEPING INTO NW
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS OF 12-13 FT N OF 15N W OF 133W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM
31N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W BY SUN NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE
NW WATERS MON NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 22N136W...THEN
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 23N
AND 27N THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ALSO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KT THROUGH SUN MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT
BY LATE SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WIND EVENT...
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DURING TUE AFTERNOON BUT INCREASING AGAIN WED
MORNING...AND LASTING INTO FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N85W TO 07N91W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N91W TO 06N110W TO 04N126W TO 07N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N130W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W...EXTENDS FROM 19N132W TO 15N135W WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SWEEPING INTO NW
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS OF 12-13 FT N OF 15N W OF 133W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM
31N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W BY SUN NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE
NW WATERS MON NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 22N136W...THEN
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 23N
AND 27N THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ALSO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KT THROUGH SUN MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT
BY LATE SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WIND EVENT...
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DURING TUE AFTERNOON BUT INCREASING AGAIN WED
MORNING...AND LASTING INTO FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N85W TO 07N91W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N91W TO 06N110W TO 04N126W TO 07N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N130W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W...EXTENDS FROM 19N132W TO 15N135W WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SWEEPING INTO NW
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS OF 12-13 FT N OF 15N W OF 133W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM
31N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W BY SUN NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE
NW WATERS MON NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 22N136W...THEN
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 23N
AND 27N THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ALSO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KT THROUGH SUN MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT
BY LATE SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WIND EVENT...
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DURING TUE AFTERNOON BUT INCREASING AGAIN WED
MORNING...AND LASTING INTO FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N85W TO 07N91W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N91W TO 06N110W TO 04N126W TO 07N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N130W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W...EXTENDS FROM 19N132W TO 15N135W WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SWEEPING INTO NW
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS OF 12-13 FT N OF 15N W OF 133W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM
31N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W BY SUN NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE
NW WATERS MON NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 22N136W...THEN
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 23N
AND 27N THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ALSO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KT THROUGH SUN MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT
BY LATE SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WIND EVENT...
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DURING TUE AFTERNOON BUT INCREASING AGAIN WED
MORNING...AND LASTING INTO FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N85W TO 07N91W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N91W TO 06N110W TO 04N126W TO 07N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N130W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W...EXTENDS FROM 19N132W TO 15N135W WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SWEEPING INTO NW
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS OF 12-13 FT N OF 15N W OF 133W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM
31N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W BY SUN NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE
NW WATERS MON NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 22N136W...THEN
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 23N
AND 27N THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ALSO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 231728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N W
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
25N93W TO 19N95W. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA UNTIL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/SAT MORNING N OF 29N
W OF 76W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 7N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N20W TO 4N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM S AND 160 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC
GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WHICH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF 1010 MB LOWS OVER THE N
GULF NEAR 28N89W AND 30N86W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE
EASTERNMOST LOW TO 30N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS BETWEEN THE TWO
LOWS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERNMOST LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW
GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SE TO E OF THE SURFACE
LOWS AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 25N90W TO 31N83W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE LOW WILL MERGE AND
MOVE NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC US COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS E ACROSS FL AND THE SE GULF AND WILL BE OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND NW CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN
OVER THE W ATLC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N ACROSS THE BASIN. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FORM THE W ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO 18N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS
FAIR WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE NW OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W OVER PUERTO RICO MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY
FROM THE NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA
THROUGH THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF 32N ALONG 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N76W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THREE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST IS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N56W TO 26N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SMALLER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N66W ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO 18N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A FORMER SURFACE LOW THAT HAS OPENED
INTO A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 23N55W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 47W IS
INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. A 1036 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N23W IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N W OF 76W SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPANDING TO 28N W OF 73W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N W
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
25N93W TO 19N95W. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA UNTIL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/SAT MORNING N OF 29N
W OF 76W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 7N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N20W TO 4N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM S AND 160 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC
GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WHICH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF 1010 MB LOWS OVER THE N
GULF NEAR 28N89W AND 30N86W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE
EASTERNMOST LOW TO 30N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS BETWEEN THE TWO
LOWS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERNMOST LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW
GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SE TO E OF THE SURFACE
LOWS AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 25N90W TO 31N83W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE LOW WILL MERGE AND
MOVE NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC US COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS E ACROSS FL AND THE SE GULF AND WILL BE OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND NW CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN
OVER THE W ATLC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N ACROSS THE BASIN. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FORM THE W ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO 18N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS
FAIR WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE NW OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W OVER PUERTO RICO MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY
FROM THE NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA
THROUGH THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF 32N ALONG 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N76W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THREE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST IS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N56W TO 26N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SMALLER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N66W ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO 18N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A FORMER SURFACE LOW THAT HAS OPENED
INTO A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 23N55W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 47W IS
INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. A 1036 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N23W IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N W OF 76W SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPANDING TO 28N W OF 73W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. COLD
DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
REACH GALE FORCE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-18 FT EARLY
SUN MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A LONG DURATION GALE...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TUE AFTERNOON
BUT INCREASING AGAIN WED MORNING...AND LASTING INTO FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 07N85W TO 08N91W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 05N114W TO 06N122W TO 04N128W TO 06N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N129W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W...EXTENDS FROM 19N129W TO 16N132W WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 129W AND 134W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SWEEPING INTO NW
WATERS TODAY. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-14 FT NORTH OF 25N W OF
135W. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 33N138W TO 26N143W TO
19N152W SUN...THEN WEAKEN IN NW WATERS SUN NIGHT TO EXTEND FROM
32N134W TO 24N140W MON THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 23N
AND 27N THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. COLD
DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
REACH GALE FORCE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-18 FT EARLY
SUN MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A LONG DURATION GALE...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TUE AFTERNOON
BUT INCREASING AGAIN WED MORNING...AND LASTING INTO FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 07N85W TO 08N91W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 05N114W TO 06N122W TO 04N128W TO 06N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N129W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W...EXTENDS FROM 19N129W TO 16N132W WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 129W AND 134W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SWEEPING INTO NW
WATERS TODAY. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-14 FT NORTH OF 25N W OF
135W. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 33N138W TO 26N143W TO
19N152W SUN...THEN WEAKEN IN NW WATERS SUN NIGHT TO EXTEND FROM
32N134W TO 24N140W MON THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 23N
AND 27N THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W
OF 95W IN THE WAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/SAT MORNING N OF 29N
W OF 76W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N27W 3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S AND 120
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20N-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC
GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE N
GULF NEAR 28N92W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 24N94W INTO
MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA ALONG 30N88W TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST N OF PANAMA CITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE FAR NW GULF GIVING THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-91W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 86W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING S OVER THE FAR W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE THE GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE AND
INLAND OVER S ALABAMA/GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN
FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/W YUCATAN
PENINSULA BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN
OVER THE W ATLC. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA W OF 80W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT
MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM E CUBA TO N/CENTRAL
HONDURAS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT WITH APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
STARTING ON LATE SAT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA
THROUGH THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 29N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
ALONG 29N73W TO 30N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45
NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N OF
THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W ALONG
25N54W TO 25N60W. AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 45W AND THE TROUGH/50W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SAT
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE E REACHING FROM
BERMUDA TO E CUBA EARLY SUN BEFORE IT STALLS FROM 32N60W TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W
OF 95W IN THE WAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/SAT MORNING N OF 29N
W OF 76W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N27W 3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S AND 120
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20N-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC
GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE N
GULF NEAR 28N92W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 24N94W INTO
MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA ALONG 30N88W TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST N OF PANAMA CITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE FAR NW GULF GIVING THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-91W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 86W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING S OVER THE FAR W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE THE GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE AND
INLAND OVER S ALABAMA/GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN
FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/W YUCATAN
PENINSULA BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN
OVER THE W ATLC. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA W OF 80W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT
MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM E CUBA TO N/CENTRAL
HONDURAS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT WITH APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
STARTING ON LATE SAT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA
THROUGH THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 29N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
ALONG 29N73W TO 30N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45
NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N OF
THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W ALONG
25N54W TO 25N60W. AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 45W AND THE TROUGH/50W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SAT
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE E REACHING FROM
BERMUDA TO E CUBA EARLY SUN BEFORE IT STALLS FROM 32N60W TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W
OF 95W IN THE WAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/SAT MORNING N OF 29N
W OF 76W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N27W 3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S AND 120
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20N-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC
GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE N
GULF NEAR 28N92W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 24N94W INTO
MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA ALONG 30N88W TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST N OF PANAMA CITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE FAR NW GULF GIVING THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-91W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 86W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING S OVER THE FAR W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE THE GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE AND
INLAND OVER S ALABAMA/GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN
FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/W YUCATAN
PENINSULA BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN
OVER THE W ATLC. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA W OF 80W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT
MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM E CUBA TO N/CENTRAL
HONDURAS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT WITH APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
STARTING ON LATE SAT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA
THROUGH THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 29N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
ALONG 29N73W TO 30N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45
NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N OF
THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W ALONG
25N54W TO 25N60W. AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 45W AND THE TROUGH/50W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SAT
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE E REACHING FROM
BERMUDA TO E CUBA EARLY SUN BEFORE IT STALLS FROM 32N60W TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W
OF 95W IN THE WAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/SAT MORNING N OF 29N
W OF 76W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N27W 3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S AND 120
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20N-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC
GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE N
GULF NEAR 28N92W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 24N94W INTO
MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA ALONG 30N88W TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST N OF PANAMA CITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE FAR NW GULF GIVING THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-91W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 86W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING S OVER THE FAR W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE THE GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE AND
INLAND OVER S ALABAMA/GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN
FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/W YUCATAN
PENINSULA BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN
OVER THE W ATLC. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA W OF 80W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT
MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM E CUBA TO N/CENTRAL
HONDURAS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT WITH APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
STARTING ON LATE SAT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA
THROUGH THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 29N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
ALONG 29N73W TO 30N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45
NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N OF
THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W ALONG
25N54W TO 25N60W. AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 45W AND THE TROUGH/50W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SAT
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE E REACHING FROM
BERMUDA TO E CUBA EARLY SUN BEFORE IT STALLS FROM 32N60W TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231047 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT 06 UTC ON JAN 24 HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWEEP
SEWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY ON SAT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
THE COLD DENSE AIR MASS USHERED IN BY THE RIDGE WILL SPILL
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 27.5-28.5 DEG
CELSIUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING OF THE COLD DENSE AIR OVER
THESE VERY WARM WATERS WITH N WINDS OF 30-35 KT EXPECTED WITHIN
30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14.5N95.5W BY 06 UTC ON
JAN 24...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 40 KT BY 12 UTC THAT SAME DAY
WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO 9-14 FT AND TO 10-18 FT BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12.5N98W BY LATE
FRI NIGHT...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
12N100W BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-14 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W. ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 06N105W TO 06BN115W TO 05N125W TO
06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A VERY NOTICEABLE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
19N127W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM EASTERN NEVADA SW TO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
LOW AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 10N139W. A JET STREAM BRANCH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...AND NE TO
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ENE
TO THE SE OF THE LOW IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 116W-121W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS A STRONGER CUT-OFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER NW MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N128W TO 15N131W IS
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LOW NEAR 19N127W. TO ITS N...A 1029 MB
HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA AT 38N128W WITH A
RIDGE SW TO 32N138W...AND CONTINUING SW TO JUST E OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SE
TO NEAR 21N112W. THE 0538 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF NE
20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE FIRST RIDGE. THE TROUGH
OS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24-
48 HRS WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT OF 20 KT PRECEDING IT WITHIN
ABOUT 180 NM TO ITS W AND NW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF
ENERGY IN THE FORM OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SEPARATE
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TO NEAR 20N112W BY 48
HRS. PRESENTLY THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DEPICTED AS A TROUGH ON
THE SURFACE PROGS...BUT MAY BE A WEAK LOW AS WELL. THE HIGH PRES
CENTER WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 21 TO 23
SECONDS...ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE NW WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-13 FT. BY FRI MORNING...THE NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT
AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 132W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SWELL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL
LATE ON SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N. THESE WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH NW WINDS FORECAST TO BE CONFINED THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BY EARLY ON SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO UNTIL 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF AROUND 6 FT THROUGH AND
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT 06 UTC ON JAN 24 HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWEEP
SEWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY ON SAT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
THE COLD DENSE AIR MASS USHERED IN BY THE RIDGE WILL SPILL
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 27.5-28.5 DEG
CELSIUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING OF THE COLD DENSE AIR OVER
THESE VERY WARM WATERS WITH N WINDS OF 30-35 KT EXPECTED WITHIN
30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14.5N95.5W BY 06 UTC ON
JAN 24...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 40 KT BY 12 UTC THAT SAME DAY
WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO 9-14 FT AND TO 10-18 FT BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12.5N98W BY LATE
FRI NIGHT...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
12N100W BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-14 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W. ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 06N105W TO 06BN115W TO 05N125W TO
06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A VERY NOTICEABLE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
19N127W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM EASTERN NEVADA SW TO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
LOW AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 10N139W. A JET STREAM BRANCH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...AND NE TO
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ENE
TO THE SE OF THE LOW IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 116W-121W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS A STRONGER CUT-OFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER NW MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N128W TO 15N131W IS
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LOW NEAR 19N127W. TO ITS N...A 1029 MB
HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA AT 38N128W WITH A
RIDGE SW TO 32N138W...AND CONTINUING SW TO JUST E OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SE
TO NEAR 21N112W. THE 0538 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF NE
20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE FIRST RIDGE. THE TROUGH
OS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24-
48 HRS WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT OF 20 KT PRECEDING IT WITHIN
ABOUT 180 NM TO ITS W AND NW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF
ENERGY IN THE FORM OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SEPARATE
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TO NEAR 20N112W BY 48
HRS. PRESENTLY THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DEPICTED AS A TROUGH ON
THE SURFACE PROGS...BUT MAY A WEAK LOW AS WELL. THE HIGH PRES
CENTER WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 21 TO 23
SECONDS...ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE NW WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-13 FT. BY FRI MORNING...THE NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT
AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 132W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SWELL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL
LATE ON SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N. THESE WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH NW WINDS FORECAST TO BE CONFINED THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BY EARLY ON SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO UNTIL 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF AROUND 6 FT THROUGH AND
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT 06 UTC ON JAN 24 HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWEEP
SEWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY ON SAT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
THE COLD DENSE AIR MASS USHERED IN BY THE RIDGE WILL SPILL
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 27.5-28.5 DEG
CELSIUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING OF THE COLD DENSE AIR OVER
THESE VERY WARM WATERS WITH N WINDS OF 30-35 KT EXPECTED WITHIN
30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14.5N95.5W BY 06 UTC ON
JAN 24...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 40 KT BY 12 UTC THAT SAME DAY
WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO 9-14 FT AND TO 10-18 FT BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12.5N98W BY LATE
FRI NIGHT...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
12N100W BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-14 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W. ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 06N105W TO 06BN115W TO 05N125W TO
06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A VERY NOTICEABLE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
19N127W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM EASTERN NEVADA SW TO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
LOW AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 10N139W. A JET STREAM BRANCH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...AND NE TO
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ENE
TO THE SE OF THE LOW IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 116W-121W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS A STRONGER CUT-OFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER NW MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N128W TO 15N131W IS
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LOW NEAR 19N127W. TO ITS N...A 1029 MB
HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA AT 38N128W WITH A
RIDGE SW TO 32N138W...AND CONTINUING SW TO JUST E OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SE
TO NEAR 21N112W. THE 0538 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF NE
20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE FIRST RIDGE. THE TROUGH
OS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24-
48 HRS WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT OF 20 KT PRECEDING IT WITHIN
ABOUT 180 NM TO ITS W AND NW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF
ENERGY IN THE FORM OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SEPARATE
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TO NEAR 20N112W BY 48
HRS. PRESENTLY THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DEPICTED AS A TROUGH ON
THE SURFACE PROGS...BUT MAY A WEAK LOW AS WELL. THE HIGH PRES
CENTER WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 21 TO 23
SECONDS...ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE NW WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-13 FT. BY FRI MORNING...THE NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT
AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 132W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SWELL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL
LATE ON SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N. THESE WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH NW WINDS FORECAST TO BE CONFINED THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BY EARLY ON SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO UNTIL 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF AROUND 6 FT THROUGH AND
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231005 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT 06 UTC ON JAN 24 HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWEEP
SEWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY ON SAT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
THE COLD DENSE AIR MASS USHERED IN BY THE RIDGE WILL SPILL
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 27.5-28.5 DEG
CELSIUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING OF THE COLD DENSE AIR OVER
THESE VERY WARM WATERS WITH N WINDS OF 30-35 KT EXPECTED WITHIN
30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14.5N95.5W BY 06 UTC ON
JAN 24...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 40 KT BY 12 UTC THAT SAME DAY
WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO 9-14 FT AND TO 10-18 FT BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12.5N98W BY LATE
FRI NIGHT...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
12N100W BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-14 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W. ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 06N105W TO 06BN115W TO 05N125W TO
06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A VERY NOTICEABLE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
19N127W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM EASTERN NEVADA SW TO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
LOW AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 10N139W. A JET STREAM BRANCH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...AND NE TO
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ENE
TO THE SE OF THE LOW IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 116W-121W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS A STRONGER CUT-OFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER NW MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N128W TO 15N131W IS
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LOW NEAR 19N127W. TO ITS N...A 1029 MB
HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA AT 38N128W WITH A
RIDGE SW TO 32N138W...AND CONTINUING SW TO JUST E OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SE
TO NEAR 21N112W. THE 0538 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF NE
20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE FIRST RIDGE. THE TROUGH
OS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24-
48 HRS WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT OF 20 KT PRECEDING IT WITHIN
ABOUT 180 NM TO ITS W AND NW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF
ENERGY IN THE FORM OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SEPARATE
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TO NEAR 20N112W BY 48
HRS. PRESENTLY THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DEPICTED AS A TROUGH ON
THE SURFACE PROGS...BUT MAY A WEAK LOW AS WELL. THE HIGH PRES
CENTER WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 21 TO 23
SECONDS...ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE NW WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-13 FT. BY FRI MORNING...THE NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT
AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 132W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SWELL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL
LATE ON SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N. THESE WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH NW WINDS FORECAST TO BE CONFINED THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BY EARLY ON SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO UNTIL 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF AROUND 6 FT THROUGH AND
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY S OF 25N W OF 94W IN THE WAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FRI NIGHT N OF 30N W 0F 77W
IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N27W 3N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 21N-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA TO NE FLORIDA GIVING
THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N94W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO MEXICO JUST N OF
TAMPICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E ACROSS SE LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N90W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES INTO N MEXICO
GIVING THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND
GENERATE THE GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N
BETWEEN 87W-94W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N W OF 94W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE
W FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRI. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE W GULF FRI AND OUT OF THE GULF ON SAT. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO W CUBA THEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-72W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THESE SAME WINDS ARE
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 12N. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
ON LATE SAT AND WEAKEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA
SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SOME EASTERLY TRADE WIND GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH FRI.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SAT WITH APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON LATE
SAT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE W ATLC WITH W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 28N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W TO 23N53W. AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE TO
THE E IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES.
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA EARLY SAT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE E
REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SUN BEFORE IT STALLS
FROM 32N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY S OF 25N W OF 94W IN THE WAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FRI NIGHT N OF 30N W 0F 77W
IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N27W 3N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 21N-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA TO NE FLORIDA GIVING
THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N94W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO MEXICO JUST N OF
TAMPICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E ACROSS SE LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N90W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES INTO N MEXICO
GIVING THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND
GENERATE THE GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N
BETWEEN 87W-94W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N W OF 94W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE
W FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRI. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE W GULF FRI AND OUT OF THE GULF ON SAT. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO W CUBA THEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-72W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THESE SAME WINDS ARE
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 12N. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
ON LATE SAT AND WEAKEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA
SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SOME EASTERLY TRADE WIND GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH FRI.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SAT WITH APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON LATE
SAT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE W ATLC WITH W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 28N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W TO 23N53W. AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE TO
THE E IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES.
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA EARLY SAT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE E
REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SUN BEFORE IT STALLS
FROM 32N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230330
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONSET OF THE EVENT BEGINNING AROUND
24/0300 UTC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY 24/0600 UTC. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 40 KT BY
24/1200 UTC AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH 25/1200Z. THIS GAP WIND
EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI...
AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF SAT. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT BY
LATE SAT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N85W TO 05N100W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N100W TO 06N110W TO 05N1125W TO 07N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
18N128W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW IS ANALYZED FROM
FROM 21N128W TO 16N129W. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL
DISSIPATE AS A STRONGER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER NW MEXICO AND
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N131W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY FROM 18N TO 24N W
OF 120W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS THESE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 21 TO 23
SECONDS...ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE NW WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-13 FT. BY FRI MORNING...THE NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12-13 FT
AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 132W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SWELL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL
LATE SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N. THESE WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
REGION THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF AROUND 6 FT THROUGH
AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. MAX
SEAS OF 6 FT ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 222357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...

A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE
S OF 25N W OF 94W. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT 06 HOURS LATER.

...GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN 30 HOURS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 30N
W OF 77W. LATER IN 48 HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO BE W OF
FRONT. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 24N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE N OF 28N W OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 8-17 FT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 02N30W TO 03N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE
COAST OF NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE
LOW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W AND CONTINUES TO THE NE GULF AT
30N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY 25-30 KT WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. E OF FRONT 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS ...WHILE BROAD
RIDGING WITH WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N86W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. A
BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPEND FROM BELIZE TO S OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI DUE TO MOIST TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W TO
28N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO
23N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 47W-
51W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
THE AZORES AT 39N24W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO
INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N32W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. ALSO EXPECT IN 30 HOURS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT TO REACH
GALE FORCE N OF 30N W OF 77W. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 222357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...

A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE
S OF 25N W OF 94W. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT 06 HOURS LATER.

...GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN 30 HOURS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 30N
W OF 77W. LATER IN 48 HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO BE W OF
FRONT. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 24N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE N OF 28N W OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 8-17 FT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 02N30W TO 03N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE
COAST OF NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE
LOW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W AND CONTINUES TO THE NE GULF AT
30N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY 25-30 KT WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. E OF FRONT 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS ...WHILE BROAD
RIDGING WITH WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N86W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. A
BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPEND FROM BELIZE TO S OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI DUE TO MOIST TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W TO
28N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO
23N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 47W-
51W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
THE AZORES AT 39N24W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO
INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N32W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. ALSO EXPECT IN 30 HOURS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT TO REACH
GALE FORCE N OF 30N W OF 77W. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 222357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...

A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE
S OF 25N W OF 94W. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT 06 HOURS LATER.

...GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN 30 HOURS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 30N
W OF 77W. LATER IN 48 HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO BE W OF
FRONT. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 24N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE N OF 28N W OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 8-17 FT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 02N30W TO 03N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE
COAST OF NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE
LOW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W AND CONTINUES TO THE NE GULF AT
30N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY 25-30 KT WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. E OF FRONT 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS ...WHILE BROAD
RIDGING WITH WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N86W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. A
BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPEND FROM BELIZE TO S OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI DUE TO MOIST TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W TO
28N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO
23N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 47W-
51W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
THE AZORES AT 39N24W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO
INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N32W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. ALSO EXPECT IN 30 HOURS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT TO REACH
GALE FORCE N OF 30N W OF 77W. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 222357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...

A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE
S OF 25N W OF 94W. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT 06 HOURS LATER.

...GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN 30 HOURS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 30N
W OF 77W. LATER IN 48 HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO BE W OF
FRONT. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 24N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE N OF 28N W OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 8-17 FT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 02N30W TO 03N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE
COAST OF NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE
LOW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W AND CONTINUES TO THE NE GULF AT
30N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY 25-30 KT WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. E OF FRONT 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS ...WHILE BROAD
RIDGING WITH WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N86W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. A
BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPEND FROM BELIZE TO S OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI DUE TO MOIST TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W TO
28N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO
23N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 47W-
51W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
THE AZORES AT 39N24W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO
INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N32W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. ALSO EXPECT IN 30 HOURS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT TO REACH
GALE FORCE N OF 30N W OF 77W. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONSET OF THE EVENT BEGINNING AROUND
24/0300 UTC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY 24/0600 UTC. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 40 KT BY
24/1200 UTC. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF SAT.
EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT BY LATE SAT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 09N86W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 06N110W TO 05N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
78W AND 80W...AND FROM 2.5N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
18N128W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW IS ANALYZED FROM
FROM 20N128W TO 16N128W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE 24-36 HOURS THEN WILL DISSIPATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N129W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 18N108W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY FROM 18N TO 24N W
OF 120W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS THESE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE NW WATERS
WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 12-13 FT NEAR 30N140W. BY FRI MORNING...
THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH
SEAS OF 12-13 FT AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 132W. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG N
OF 25N THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI...WITH
FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REACHING 20 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF
AROUND 6 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.

FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. MAX
SEAS OF 6 FT ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONSET OF THE EVENT BEGINNING AROUND
24/0300 UTC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY 24/0600 UTC. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 40 KT BY
24/1200 UTC. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF SAT.
EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT BY LATE SAT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 09N86W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 06N110W TO 05N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
78W AND 80W...AND FROM 2.5N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
18N128W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW IS ANALYZED FROM
FROM 20N128W TO 16N128W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE 24-36 HOURS THEN WILL DISSIPATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N129W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 18N108W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY FROM 18N TO 24N W
OF 120W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS THESE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE NW WATERS
WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 12-13 FT NEAR 30N140W. BY FRI MORNING...
THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH
SEAS OF 12-13 FT AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 132W. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG N
OF 25N THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI...WITH
FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REACHING 20 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF
AROUND 6 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.

FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. MAX
SEAS OF 6 FT ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONSET OF THE EVENT BEGINNING AROUND
24/0300 UTC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY 24/0600 UTC. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 40 KT BY
24/1200 UTC. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF SAT.
EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT BY LATE SAT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 09N86W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 06N110W TO 05N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
78W AND 80W...AND FROM 2.5N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
18N128W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW IS ANALYZED FROM
FROM 20N128W TO 16N128W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE 24-36 HOURS THEN WILL DISSIPATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N129W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 18N108W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY FROM 18N TO 24N W
OF 120W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS THESE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE NW WATERS
WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 12-13 FT NEAR 30N140W. BY FRI MORNING...
THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH
SEAS OF 12-13 FT AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 132W. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG N
OF 25N THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI...WITH
FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REACHING 20 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF
AROUND 6 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.

FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. MAX
SEAS OF 6 FT ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONSET OF THE EVENT BEGINNING AROUND
24/0300 UTC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY 24/0600 UTC. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 40 KT BY
24/1200 UTC. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF SAT.
EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT BY LATE SAT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 09N86W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 06N110W TO 05N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
78W AND 80W...AND FROM 2.5N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
18N128W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW IS ANALYZED FROM
FROM 20N128W TO 16N128W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE 24-36 HOURS THEN WILL DISSIPATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N129W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 18N108W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY FROM 18N TO 24N W
OF 120W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS THESE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE NW WATERS
WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 12-13 FT NEAR 30N140W. BY FRI MORNING...
THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH
SEAS OF 12-13 FT AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 132W. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG N
OF 25N THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI...WITH
FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REACHING 20 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF
AROUND 6 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.

FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. MAX
SEAS OF 6 FT ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 36 HOURS...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NE OF AREA AND A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 30N85W TO 18N93W. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INDUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS S OF 21N W OF 95W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8-10 FT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN 12 HOURS.

...GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN 48 HOURS...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N
OF 30N BETWEEN 77W-79W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 12-14 FT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W ALONG 06N11W TO 05N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N20W 03N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 12W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF SUPPORTING SW FLOW ALOFT. A 1012 MB
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH ITS
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FROM 28N99W TO
28N103W TO 31N106W. ANOTHER 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 21N97W.
WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOSTLY NEAR THE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS DEPICTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
MOVING SOUTH AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO INCREASE AS THE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NW
GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FEATURES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO W CUBA THEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-
79W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED BY LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N62W TO 18N63W
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN IN 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN IN 48 HOURS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
IT APPROACHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS N ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W ATLANTIC WITH W
TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF ITS
AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 24N53W. THE
CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 46W-55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
22N62W TO 18N63W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 36 HOURS...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NE OF AREA AND A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 30N85W TO 18N93W. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INDUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS S OF 21N W OF 95W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8-10 FT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN 12 HOURS.

...GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN 48 HOURS...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N
OF 30N BETWEEN 77W-79W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 12-14 FT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W ALONG 06N11W TO 05N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N20W 03N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 12W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF SUPPORTING SW FLOW ALOFT. A 1012 MB
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH ITS
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FROM 28N99W TO
28N103W TO 31N106W. ANOTHER 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 21N97W.
WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOSTLY NEAR THE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS DEPICTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
MOVING SOUTH AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO INCREASE AS THE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NW
GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FEATURES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO W CUBA THEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-
79W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED BY LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N62W TO 18N63W
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN IN 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN IN 48 HOURS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
IT APPROACHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS N ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W ATLANTIC WITH W
TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF ITS
AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 24N53W. THE
CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 46W-55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
22N62W TO 18N63W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE EARLY SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO. PEAK WINDS WILL BE 40-42 KT SAT NIGHT. EXPECT MAX SEAS
TO 15-17 FT EARLY SUN MORNING WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 05N93W TO 06N98W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N98W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N130W. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS LOCATED FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 121W AND 136W. A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N132W TO
20N131W. 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA LOCATED NEAR 35N131W EXTENDS
A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N. FAIRLY PLACID CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NW
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12- 14 FT WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED W OF 135W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE SWELLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG N
OF 30N THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI...WITH
FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

$$
MUNDELL



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