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000
AXNT20 KNHC 232326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 11N16W AND TERMINATES NEAR 10N20W. THE ITCZ REACHES FROM
NEAR 10N20W TO 02N30W AND TERMINATES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
AMAZON RIVER NEAR 00N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND
15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS SHIFTING WEST THROUGH 90W NORTH OF
25N...FOLLOWING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAS BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND
AND WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS
FROM BUOYS AND OIL RIGS ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE COAST OF TEXAS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN NEARLY
CLOUD FREE. LOOKING AHEAD...THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN
FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE SATURDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE BASIN IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA AND ABC ISLANDS WHERE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED. A THIN
CANOPY OF CIRRUS EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCED BY
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF PANAMA AND ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...SPECIFICALLY LARGE AREAS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND ARE STARTING TO IMPACT
COASTAL AREAS FROM CARTAGENA COLOMBIA THROUGH LAKE MARACAIBO IN
VENEZUELA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 150 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG A STALLED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS NW HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN. UPPER FORCING RELATED TO AN
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET EXTENDING NW OF HISPANIOLA OVER
CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AS WELL AS OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND JAMAICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
SOMEWHAT LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REPEATING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE TRAILING END OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL
DRIFT TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND INLAND THUNDERSTORMS
BY SUNDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE NW ATLANTIC...REACHING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO AROUND 27N
WEST OF 70W. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED SURFACE
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO
NW HAITI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN LARGE AREAS OF
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH N OF
25N BETWEEN 70W AND 40W. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEST
OF 70W. A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 25N THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
RIDGING. THIS WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N W OF 60W
THIS WEEKEND.

FARTHER EAST...ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REACHING FROM 32N35W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AXIS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WITH SEAS TO 9
FT AS NOTED BY ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NAMELY SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 35W.
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED
SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW IS NOTED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EAST OF 35W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS NOTED NORTH OF
10N. MINIMAL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 232326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 11N16W AND TERMINATES NEAR 10N20W. THE ITCZ REACHES FROM
NEAR 10N20W TO 02N30W AND TERMINATES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
AMAZON RIVER NEAR 00N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND
15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS SHIFTING WEST THROUGH 90W NORTH OF
25N...FOLLOWING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAS BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND
AND WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS
FROM BUOYS AND OIL RIGS ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE COAST OF TEXAS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN NEARLY
CLOUD FREE. LOOKING AHEAD...THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN
FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE SATURDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE BASIN IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA AND ABC ISLANDS WHERE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED. A THIN
CANOPY OF CIRRUS EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCED BY
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF PANAMA AND ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...SPECIFICALLY LARGE AREAS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND ARE STARTING TO IMPACT
COASTAL AREAS FROM CARTAGENA COLOMBIA THROUGH LAKE MARACAIBO IN
VENEZUELA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 150 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG A STALLED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS NW HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN. UPPER FORCING RELATED TO AN
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET EXTENDING NW OF HISPANIOLA OVER
CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AS WELL AS OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND JAMAICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
SOMEWHAT LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REPEATING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE TRAILING END OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL
DRIFT TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND INLAND THUNDERSTORMS
BY SUNDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE NW ATLANTIC...REACHING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO AROUND 27N
WEST OF 70W. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED SURFACE
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO
NW HAITI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN LARGE AREAS OF
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH N OF
25N BETWEEN 70W AND 40W. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEST
OF 70W. A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 25N THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
RIDGING. THIS WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N W OF 60W
THIS WEEKEND.

FARTHER EAST...ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REACHING FROM 32N35W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AXIS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WITH SEAS TO 9
FT AS NOTED BY ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NAMELY SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 35W.
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED
SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW IS NOTED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EAST OF 35W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS NOTED NORTH OF
10N. MINIMAL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232123
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N91W TO 05N110W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W OF
127W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 110W AND 127W TO INCLUDE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE
DEEP TROPICS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
06N133W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND
130W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO INCLUDE OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N139W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR
20N110W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED MOVE SW TO 30N145W AND LOOSEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS PRESENTLY FROM
09N TO 20N W OF 130W AND FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W
WITH NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...AN
AREA OF WINDS AND SWELL IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PRESENTLY N OF
25N E OF 126W NW TO N WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 FT
IN NW SWELL.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE
WIND FLOW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA
OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS E OF 130W AND S
OF LINE FROM 13N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W BY THU MORNING...AND
E OF 125W AND S OF LINE FROM 15N125W TO 17N110W TO 05N92W BY FRI
MORNING. EXPECT ALSO BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS TO ABOUT 2N.  BASED ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU
NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA
OF CORTEZ EARLY ON FRI...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE
COAST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232123
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N91W TO 05N110W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W OF
127W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 110W AND 127W TO INCLUDE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE
DEEP TROPICS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
06N133W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND
130W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO INCLUDE OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N139W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR
20N110W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED MOVE SW TO 30N145W AND LOOSEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS PRESENTLY FROM
09N TO 20N W OF 130W AND FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W
WITH NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...AN
AREA OF WINDS AND SWELL IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PRESENTLY N OF
25N E OF 126W NW TO N WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 FT
IN NW SWELL.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE
WIND FLOW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA
OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS E OF 130W AND S
OF LINE FROM 13N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W BY THU MORNING...AND
E OF 125W AND S OF LINE FROM 15N125W TO 17N110W TO 05N92W BY FRI
MORNING. EXPECT ALSO BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS TO ABOUT 2N.  BASED ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU
NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA
OF CORTEZ EARLY ON FRI...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE
COAST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 231804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N14W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N23W 2N31W AND 1N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
BRAZIL AND IN FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM THE THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 47W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N7W IN THE IVORY COAST...TO 3N16W AND
3N22W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 9W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W...
CROSSING NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
TO THE WEST OF 90W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS...TO TEXAS NEAR
29N101W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHWESTWARD...
BEYOND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A 1016 MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KVAF AND KSPR WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND
FOG. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER WESLACO...MCALLEN...AND EDINBURG
IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...FROM FALFURRIAS TO THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KINGSVILLE...FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS...AND
AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES...
AND IN THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA...IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
AND IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING REPORTED IN TALLAHASSEE AND IN BROOKSVILLE. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SURROUNDING CITIES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE
WEST OF 66W FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AND POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.28 IN
GUADELOUPE..

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N56W 26N60W 21N70W...THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 85W IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FEW
LOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...LA
ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A RIDGE THAT
RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND A TROUGH.
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N56W TO
30N58W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W TO 31N56W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N56W 26N60W
21N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N85W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N53W...TO 28N55W AND 25N59W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG
26N15W 18N27W 14N39W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 25N15W 20N23W...WITHIN 400 NM TO 600 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 20N23W 10N38W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND THE MONA
PASSAGE.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N35W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
31N56W 17N85W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N56W TO
22N65W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 59W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND
46W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. A
FOURTH AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W TO
29N74W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
TO 63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N14W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N23W 2N31W AND 1N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
BRAZIL AND IN FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM THE THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 47W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N7W IN THE IVORY COAST...TO 3N16W AND
3N22W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 9W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W...
CROSSING NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
TO THE WEST OF 90W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS...TO TEXAS NEAR
29N101W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHWESTWARD...
BEYOND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A 1016 MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KVAF AND KSPR WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND
FOG. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER WESLACO...MCALLEN...AND EDINBURG
IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...FROM FALFURRIAS TO THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KINGSVILLE...FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS...AND
AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES...
AND IN THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA...IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
AND IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING REPORTED IN TALLAHASSEE AND IN BROOKSVILLE. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SURROUNDING CITIES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE
WEST OF 66W FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AND POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.28 IN
GUADELOUPE..

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N56W 26N60W 21N70W...THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 85W IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FEW
LOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...LA
ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A RIDGE THAT
RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND A TROUGH.
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N56W TO
30N58W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W TO 31N56W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N56W 26N60W
21N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N85W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N53W...TO 28N55W AND 25N59W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG
26N15W 18N27W 14N39W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 25N15W 20N23W...WITHIN 400 NM TO 600 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 20N23W 10N38W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND THE MONA
PASSAGE.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N35W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
31N56W 17N85W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N56W TO
22N65W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 59W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND
46W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. A
FOURTH AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W TO
29N74W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
TO 63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N95W TO 04N110W TO 06N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W
AND 120W...FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AND FROM 02N TO
04N BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N112W TO 21N124W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N114W TO
28N118W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 11
FT IN NW SWELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS
LATER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS
NEAR 140W AND DOMINATES THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...
MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 16N W OF 130W AND ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 9N127W. UPPER DIFFLUENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN 116W
AND 128W. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 12N85W. A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDS WESTWARD COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N142W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W. FRESH TO STRONG NE
TO E TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS...
PARTICULARLY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W AND FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE
TRADES WILL DECREASE ON THU AS HIGH PRES MOVES EASTWARD AND
DISSIPATES. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO NOTED JUST OFF OF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW
CENTER OVER ARIZONA AND THE HIGH PRES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE
WIND FLOW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA
OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS E OF 130W AND S
OF LINE FROM 13N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W BY THU MORNING...AND
E OF 125W AND S OF LINE FROM 15N125W TO 17N110W TO 05N92W BY FRI
MORNING. EXPECT ALSO BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS TO ABOUT 2N.  BASED ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU
NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA
OF CORTEZ EARLY ON FRI...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE
COAST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N95W TO 04N110W TO 06N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W
AND 120W...FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AND FROM 02N TO
04N BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N112W TO 21N124W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N114W TO
28N118W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 11
FT IN NW SWELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS
LATER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS
NEAR 140W AND DOMINATES THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...
MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 16N W OF 130W AND ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 9N127W. UPPER DIFFLUENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN 116W
AND 128W. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 12N85W. A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDS WESTWARD COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N142W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W. FRESH TO STRONG NE
TO E TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS...
PARTICULARLY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W AND FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE
TRADES WILL DECREASE ON THU AS HIGH PRES MOVES EASTWARD AND
DISSIPATES. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO NOTED JUST OFF OF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW
CENTER OVER ARIZONA AND THE HIGH PRES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE
WIND FLOW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA
OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS E OF 130W AND S
OF LINE FROM 13N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W BY THU MORNING...AND
E OF 125W AND S OF LINE FROM 15N125W TO 17N110W TO 05N92W BY FRI
MORNING. EXPECT ALSO BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS TO ABOUT 2N.  BASED ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU
NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA
OF CORTEZ EARLY ON FRI...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE
COAST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 03N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THAT POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 06N11W TO 03N24W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N93W.  AS THERE IS ALMOST NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRESENT...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS
OR WEAKER.  NO DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION THAT BROKE OUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST-FACING
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO HAS DISSIPATED.
THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...THOUGH WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  THE
DIURNALLY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE GULF DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON TUESDAY...BUT HAS NOW SINCE
DISSIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA...EASTERN
BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS OVER NEAR THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND
COLOMBIA...DUE TO LAND BREEZES INTERACTING WITH SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.  DEEP CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERNMOST SOUTH AMERICA DURING AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE.
THE WEAK NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE TRADEWINDS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
BREEZIER CONDITIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA.  THIS
HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALSO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN OCCLUDING GALE-
FORCE LOW OF 993 MB PRESSURE CENTERED AT 40N59W...SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THE TROUGH ENTERS OUR AREA
AT 32N57W AND EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SOUTHERLIES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR POLEWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PROMOTE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A NEW COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF OF THE U.S.
ATLANTIC COAST CURRENTLY AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
MERGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE TROUGH.  WINDS ON BOTH SIDES
OF THIS NEW FRONT MAY REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FARTHER EAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST WITHIN OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY.  THE FEATURE IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N41W TO
28N33W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TO 32N18W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 03N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THAT POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 06N11W TO 03N24W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N93W.  AS THERE IS ALMOST NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRESENT...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS
OR WEAKER.  NO DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION THAT BROKE OUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST-FACING
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO HAS DISSIPATED.
THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...THOUGH WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  THE
DIURNALLY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE GULF DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON TUESDAY...BUT HAS NOW SINCE
DISSIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA...EASTERN
BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS OVER NEAR THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND
COLOMBIA...DUE TO LAND BREEZES INTERACTING WITH SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.  DEEP CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERNMOST SOUTH AMERICA DURING AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE.
THE WEAK NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE TRADEWINDS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
BREEZIER CONDITIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA.  THIS
HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALSO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN OCCLUDING GALE-
FORCE LOW OF 993 MB PRESSURE CENTERED AT 40N59W...SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THE TROUGH ENTERS OUR AREA
AT 32N57W AND EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SOUTHERLIES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR POLEWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PROMOTE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A NEW COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF OF THE U.S.
ATLANTIC COAST CURRENTLY AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
MERGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE TROUGH.  WINDS ON BOTH SIDES
OF THIS NEW FRONT MAY REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FARTHER EAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST WITHIN OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY.  THE FEATURE IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N41W TO
28N33W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TO 32N18W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230911
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 4N96W TO 3N110W TO 6N130W TO 3N135W TO 4N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
100W-105W AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 115W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 22N120W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS IS FROM 15N-30N W OF 105W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 9N124W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 115W-135W.

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR 15-20 KT
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL FROM 7N-20N W OF 120W.
LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 15N WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230911
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 4N96W TO 3N110W TO 6N130W TO 3N135W TO 4N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
100W-105W AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 115W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 22N120W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS IS FROM 15N-30N W OF 105W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 9N124W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 115W-135W.

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR 15-20 KT
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL FROM 7N-20N W OF 120W.
LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 15N WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230911
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 4N96W TO 3N110W TO 6N130W TO 3N135W TO 4N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
100W-105W AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 115W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 22N120W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS IS FROM 15N-30N W OF 105W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 9N124W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 115W-135W.

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR 15-20 KT
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL FROM 7N-20N W OF 120W.
LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 15N WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230911
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 4N96W TO 3N110W TO 6N130W TO 3N135W TO 4N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
100W-105W AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 115W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 22N120W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS IS FROM 15N-30N W OF 105W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 9N124W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 115W-135W.

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR 15-20 KT
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL FROM 7N-20N W OF 120W.
LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 15N WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 03N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT
POINT AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 02S40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 06N10W TO 03N20W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N93W.  AS THERE IS ALMOST NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRESENT...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS
OR WEAKER.  NO DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF TODAY.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION BROKE OUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE...AS IS TYPICAL...LATER THIS MORNING.  THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...THOUGH WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  THE
DIURNALLY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE GULF DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JAMAICA TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA...EASTERN BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER
PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA...DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE...AS IS
TYPICAL...LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH MORE OF THE SAME IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND NORTHERNMOST SOUTH AMERICA. THE WEAK NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE
TRADEWINDS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY FASTER CONDITIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JAMAICA.  THIS HAS HELPED
INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN
OCCLUDING GALE-FORCE LOW OF 997 MB PRESSURE CENTERED AT
38N61W...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AT 32N59W AND EXTENDS TO
23N65W.  AT THAT POINT...THE FEATURE BECOMES A TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT/TROUGH.  A
LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR POLEWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN
AFTER THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH.  A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AND MERGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE
ORIGINAL FRONT.  WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS NEXT FRONT MAY
REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FARTHER EAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST WITHIN OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY.  THE FEATURE IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N43W TO
29N33W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TO 32N20W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 03N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT
POINT AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 02S40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 06N10W TO 03N20W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N93W.  AS THERE IS ALMOST NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRESENT...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS
OR WEAKER.  NO DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF TODAY.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION BROKE OUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE...AS IS TYPICAL...LATER THIS MORNING.  THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...THOUGH WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  THE
DIURNALLY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE GULF DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JAMAICA TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA...EASTERN BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER
PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA...DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE...AS IS
TYPICAL...LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH MORE OF THE SAME IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND NORTHERNMOST SOUTH AMERICA. THE WEAK NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE
TRADEWINDS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY FASTER CONDITIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JAMAICA.  THIS HAS HELPED
INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN
OCCLUDING GALE-FORCE LOW OF 997 MB PRESSURE CENTERED AT
38N61W...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AT 32N59W AND EXTENDS TO
23N65W.  AT THAT POINT...THE FEATURE BECOMES A TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT/TROUGH.  A
LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR POLEWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN
AFTER THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH.  A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AND MERGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE
ORIGINAL FRONT.  WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS NEXT FRONT MAY
REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FARTHER EAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST WITHIN OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY.  THE FEATURE IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N43W TO
29N33W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TO 32N20W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230244
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N105W TO 06N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND
94W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO
10N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N W OF 116W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
30N115W TO 24N124W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE TROUGH WITH
SEAS TO 9 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. IN THE
DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 07N128W.
UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING
TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 109W. ANOTHER SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 07N98W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N142W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W.
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
31N137W IN 24 HOURS. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SOME AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT OFF
OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 125W BY WED
EVENING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO COVER MOST OF
THE WATERS W OF 110W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 120W. LARGE SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 20-22
SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 12N130W TO 12N110W TO 3.4S89W. BASED
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230244
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N105W TO 06N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND
94W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO
10N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N W OF 116W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
30N115W TO 24N124W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE TROUGH WITH
SEAS TO 9 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. IN THE
DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 07N128W.
UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING
TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 109W. ANOTHER SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 07N98W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N142W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W.
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
31N137W IN 24 HOURS. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SOME AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT OFF
OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 125W BY WED
EVENING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO COVER MOST OF
THE WATERS W OF 110W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 120W. LARGE SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 20-22
SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 12N130W TO 12N110W TO 3.4S89W. BASED
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND SENEGAL FROM 12N16W TO 4N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 2N27W AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM OF 5N15W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 3N7W TO THE EQUATOR AT 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER SE ALABAMA THROUGH 29N90W TO A BASE NEAR 22N97W. THERE WERE
SEVERAL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE TROUGH OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS SWEEPING ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SWEEPING OVER THE GULF E OF THE TROUGH IN
FAIRLY STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF WEAK
1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREAS WERE NOTED NEAR 28N92W AND IN THE
VICINITY OF TAMPICO MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST INLAND ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LOUISIANA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY
FAIR OVER THE GULF WITH PATCHES OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS. THE WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN MANIFESTED IN LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
WITH BUOYS REPORTING SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGHOUT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. S TO SW
FLOW ALOFT WAS NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH STRONG WNW FLOW
NOTED N OF THE AXIS ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS CURVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE BASIN S OF 15N.

THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS NOTED ABOVE MASKED PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IN TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ERUPTING OVER JAMAICA....EXTREME SE
CUBA AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTRIBUTED TO THE ACTIVITY.

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED SUB-NORMAL TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH A LARGE AREA OF 5 TO 10 KT WINDS NOTED OVER THE BASIN
WEST OF 75W. THE LIGHT WINDS SHIFTED FROM THE EAST TO LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED
FROM THE EXTREME SE COAST OF CUBA THROUGH 18N84W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. R TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SWEPT ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AMIDST STRONG DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE
IN THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND TRIGGERED
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PUERTO PLATA AND
LORNA DE CABRERA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS COVERED
THE REMAINDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXTENDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
REMNANT IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 37N60W WAS
ACCELERATING OUT TO THE NE WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH 31N60W TO A BASE NEAR 23N67W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 11120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING WANING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH 32N61W TO 25N65W TO THE EXTREME NORTH COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE
FRONT...ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI...THROUGH THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A
POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N65W 24N70W TO 23N72W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90-120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
STREAMING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT COVERED THE
ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 62W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEARED TROUGH IS ALONG 27N18W
THROUGH 22N30W TO A BASE NEAR 13N47W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 300 NM
TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 24N20W TO 10N45W.

A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N31W. A COLD FRONT
ENTERED THE AREA NEAR 32N22W...BECAME STATIONARY NEAR 29N35W AND
EXITED THE AREA NEAR 32N43W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERED
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND SENEGAL FROM 12N16W TO 4N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 2N27W AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM OF 5N15W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 3N7W TO THE EQUATOR AT 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER SE ALABAMA THROUGH 29N90W TO A BASE NEAR 22N97W. THERE WERE
SEVERAL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE TROUGH OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS SWEEPING ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SWEEPING OVER THE GULF E OF THE TROUGH IN
FAIRLY STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF WEAK
1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREAS WERE NOTED NEAR 28N92W AND IN THE
VICINITY OF TAMPICO MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST INLAND ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LOUISIANA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY
FAIR OVER THE GULF WITH PATCHES OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS. THE WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN MANIFESTED IN LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
WITH BUOYS REPORTING SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGHOUT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. S TO SW
FLOW ALOFT WAS NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH STRONG WNW FLOW
NOTED N OF THE AXIS ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS CURVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE BASIN S OF 15N.

THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS NOTED ABOVE MASKED PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IN TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ERUPTING OVER JAMAICA....EXTREME SE
CUBA AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTRIBUTED TO THE ACTIVITY.

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED SUB-NORMAL TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH A LARGE AREA OF 5 TO 10 KT WINDS NOTED OVER THE BASIN
WEST OF 75W. THE LIGHT WINDS SHIFTED FROM THE EAST TO LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED
FROM THE EXTREME SE COAST OF CUBA THROUGH 18N84W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. R TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SWEPT ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AMIDST STRONG DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE
IN THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND TRIGGERED
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PUERTO PLATA AND
LORNA DE CABRERA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS COVERED
THE REMAINDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXTENDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
REMNANT IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 37N60W WAS
ACCELERATING OUT TO THE NE WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH 31N60W TO A BASE NEAR 23N67W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 11120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING WANING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH 32N61W TO 25N65W TO THE EXTREME NORTH COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE
FRONT...ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI...THROUGH THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A
POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N65W 24N70W TO 23N72W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90-120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
STREAMING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT COVERED THE
ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 62W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEARED TROUGH IS ALONG 27N18W
THROUGH 22N30W TO A BASE NEAR 13N47W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 300 NM
TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 24N20W TO 10N45W.

A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N31W. A COLD FRONT
ENTERED THE AREA NEAR 32N22W...BECAME STATIONARY NEAR 29N35W AND
EXITED THE AREA NEAR 32N43W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERED
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222123
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N110W TO 09N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W... AND
FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N W OF 120W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N119W TO
26N130W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9
FT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF
16N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 07N128W. UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ W OF 128W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 07N98W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N145W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W.
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
32N137W IN 24 HOURS. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SOME AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT OFF
OF NORTHERN BAJA  CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 125W BY WED
MORNING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO COVER MOST OF
THE WATERS W OF 110W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 120W. LARGE SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 20-22
SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 12N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W. BASED
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222123
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N110W TO 09N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W... AND
FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N W OF 120W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N119W TO
26N130W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9
FT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF
16N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 07N128W. UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ W OF 128W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 07N98W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N145W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W.
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
32N137W IN 24 HOURS. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SOME AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT OFF
OF NORTHERN BAJA  CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 125W BY WED
MORNING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO COVER MOST OF
THE WATERS W OF 110W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 120W. LARGE SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 20-22
SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 12N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W. BASED
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222123
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N110W TO 09N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W... AND
FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N W OF 120W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N119W TO
26N130W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9
FT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF
16N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 07N128W. UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ W OF 128W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 07N98W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N145W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W.
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
32N137W IN 24 HOURS. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SOME AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT OFF
OF NORTHERN BAJA  CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 125W BY WED
MORNING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO COVER MOST OF
THE WATERS W OF 110W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 120W. LARGE SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 20-22
SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 12N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W. BASED
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222123
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N110W TO 09N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W... AND
FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N W OF 120W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N119W TO
26N130W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9
FT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF
16N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 07N128W. UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ W OF 128W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 07N98W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N145W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W.
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
32N137W IN 24 HOURS. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SOME AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT OFF
OF NORTHERN BAJA  CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 125W BY WED
MORNING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO COVER MOST OF
THE WATERS W OF 110W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 120W. LARGE SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 20-22
SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 12N130W TO 10N110W TO 3.4S90W. BASED
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND SENEGAL FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 16W AND
17W...TO 12N18W 9N20W AND 7N23W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 1N22W 2N27W
AND 2N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 13W
AND 51W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N5W IN THE IVORY COAST...TO 4N13W AND
3N22W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 13W AND 15W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A STILL-INLAND TEXAS COLD FRONT. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF
90W. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS COVERING THE
AREAS FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W HAS DISSIPATED.

ONE 1017 MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N89W. A
1016 MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N96W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KHQI...KCRH...KVBS...AND KATP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... AND
ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS FROM VICTORIA AND PALACIOS NORTHWARD. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING IN THE
AREAS THAT ARE AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MOSTLY SCATTERED AND
SOME BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. FEW TO SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF PERRY. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN THE
AREAS OF FORT MYERS AND NAPLES...AND IN MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...TO WESTERN HONDURAS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE
EAST OF 86W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE...FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND
65W...ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W...FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 78W AND 86W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 58W AND 62W MOVING TOWARD VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD...IN
SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.01 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...TO WESTERN HONDURAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 35N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N65W...TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N70W TO 20N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N72W...ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI...THROUGH
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA TO 19N80W
AND 18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND
78W...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE
HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS WESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WITH A RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS WESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WITH INDIVIDUAL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL BE ON TOP OF THE AREA...WITH ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS AND RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 35N63W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N65W
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 25N66W TO 20N70W AND 20N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N72W...ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI...THROUGH
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA TO 19N80W
AND 18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N68W 27N69W 23N71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N60W 27N62W 24N64W 21N67W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 35W AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.10 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.03 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N18W 20N30W
12N47W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 24N21W 14N40W...AND THEN WITHIN 600 NM TO
750 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 14N40W 8N57W.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N39W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N63W TO 19N72W. EXPECT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 61W. EXPECT ALSO...FOR THE 06 HOUR
FORECAST WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND SENEGAL FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 16W AND
17W...TO 12N18W 9N20W AND 7N23W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 1N22W 2N27W
AND 2N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 13W
AND 51W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N5W IN THE IVORY COAST...TO 4N13W AND
3N22W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 13W AND 15W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A STILL-INLAND TEXAS COLD FRONT. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF
90W. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS COVERING THE
AREAS FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W HAS DISSIPATED.

ONE 1017 MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N89W. A
1016 MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N96W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KHQI...KCRH...KVBS...AND KATP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... AND
ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS FROM VICTORIA AND PALACIOS NORTHWARD. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING IN THE
AREAS THAT ARE AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MOSTLY SCATTERED AND
SOME BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. FEW TO SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF PERRY. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN THE
AREAS OF FORT MYERS AND NAPLES...AND IN MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...TO WESTERN HONDURAS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE
EAST OF 86W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE...FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND
65W...ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W...FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 78W AND 86W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 58W AND 62W MOVING TOWARD VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD...IN
SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.01 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...TO WESTERN HONDURAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 35N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N65W...TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N70W TO 20N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N72W...ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI...THROUGH
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA TO 19N80W
AND 18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND
78W...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE
HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS WESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WITH A RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS WESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WITH INDIVIDUAL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL BE ON TOP OF THE AREA...WITH ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS AND RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 35N63W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N65W
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 25N66W TO 20N70W AND 20N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N72W...ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI...THROUGH
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA TO 19N80W
AND 18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N68W 27N69W 23N71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N60W 27N62W 24N64W 21N67W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 35W AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.10 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.03 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N18W 20N30W
12N47W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 24N21W 14N40W...AND THEN WITHIN 600 NM TO
750 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 14N40W 8N57W.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N39W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N63W TO 19N72W. EXPECT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 61W. EXPECT ALSO...FOR THE 06 HOUR
FORECAST WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 06N92W TO 05N110W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 02N TO
06N W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N125W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
FORECAST REGION NEAR 30N126W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 25N140W. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATER TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 17N E
OF 120W AND FROM 19N-25N W OF 1305W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 7N128W.
UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING
TO INDUCE CONVECTION W OF 134W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 7N98W. A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDS WESTWARD COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N147W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20
KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE HIGH
PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR 33N137W BY 24 HOURS.
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT OFF OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 28N E OF 123W BY WED MORNING.

AN AREA MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
105W AND 114W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO COVER MOST
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W BY LATE TODAY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 110W.
LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF
20-22 SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 14N130W TO 12N112W TO 3.4S92W. BASED
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE
WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 06N92W TO 05N110W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 02N TO
06N W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N125W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
FORECAST REGION NEAR 30N126W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 25N140W. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATER TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 17N E
OF 120W AND FROM 19N-25N W OF 1305W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 7N128W.
UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING
TO INDUCE CONVECTION W OF 134W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 7N98W. A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDS WESTWARD COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N147W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20
KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE HIGH
PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR 33N137W BY 24 HOURS.
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT OFF OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 28N E OF 123W BY WED MORNING.

AN AREA MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
105W AND 114W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO COVER MOST
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W BY LATE TODAY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 110W.
LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF
20-22 SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 14N130W TO 12N112W TO 3.4S92W. BASED
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE
WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 06N92W TO 05N110W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 02N TO
06N W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N125W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
FORECAST REGION NEAR 30N126W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 25N140W. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATER TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 17N E
OF 120W AND FROM 19N-25N W OF 1305W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 7N128W.
UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING
TO INDUCE CONVECTION W OF 134W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 7N98W. A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDS WESTWARD COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N147W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20
KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE HIGH
PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR 33N137W BY 24 HOURS.
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT OFF OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 28N E OF 123W BY WED MORNING.

AN AREA MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
105W AND 114W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO COVER MOST
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W BY LATE TODAY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 110W.
LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF
20-22 SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 14N130W TO 12N112W TO 3.4S92W. BASED
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE
WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 06N92W TO 05N110W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 02N TO
06N W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N125W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
FORECAST REGION NEAR 30N126W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 25N140W. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATER TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 17N E
OF 120W AND FROM 19N-25N W OF 1305W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 7N128W.
UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING
TO INDUCE CONVECTION W OF 134W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 7N98W. A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDS WESTWARD COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N147W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20
KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE HIGH
PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR 33N137W BY 24 HOURS.
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT OFF OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 28N E OF 123W BY WED MORNING.

AN AREA MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
105W AND 114W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO COVER MOST
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W BY LATE TODAY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 110W.
LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF
20-22 SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 14N130W TO 12N112W TO 3.4S92W. BASED
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE
WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 04N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W TO 02S45W NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL. A
SURFACE TROUGH...A CONVERGENCE LINE...EXISTS FROM THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 04N24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
EAST OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AT 28N89W.  A SECOND BROAD HIGH OF 1018 MB IS
LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERNMOST TEXAS AT 26N97W.  DUE TO A FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE GENTLE
BREEZE OR WEAKER.  ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMUM
YESTERDAY.  FORCING FOR THIS DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N MAY BE
DUE IN PART TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS.
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING.  OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WEAK HIGH SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER THE GULF.  A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
U.S. GULF COAST LATE TODAY AND MAY BARELY REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF.  DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK
FRONT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN
ADVANCE...EXPECT THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS...ALONG WITH SOME SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...
PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND HISPANIOLA LATE ON MONDAY. WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER FLAT...EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE TO GENTLE BREEZES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FRESH BREEZE NORTHEASTERLIES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA.  IF
ANYTHING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED TRADEWINDS MAY
WEAKEN EVEN MORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS MAY REDUCE
CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS...ALONG WITH SOME SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...
PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER HISPANIOLA LATE ON MONDAY. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...THIS MAY REDUCE CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OVER HISPANIOLA...WHICH IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N67W.  A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD IN OUR AREA FROM 32N64W TO HISPANIOLA.  ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N.
SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE CONDITIONS...BUT ARE WEAKER BEHIND THE FRONT.  A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO IS PRESENT FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS...THOUGH THIS FEATURE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR
WINDS WITH IT.  THE LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH AN UPPER LOW
OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THE SAME LOCATION.  THE
UPPER LOW IS STARTING TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND BE ADVECTED
QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST.  THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
HAS LIMITED BAROCLINICITY...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
FRONT.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LOW AND THE FRONT WILL BE
ABSORBED WITHIN A NEWLY DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND MORE
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...THE LATTER WILL REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER EAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLES THE NORTHERN BORDER
FROM 32N48W TO 30N37W TO 32N29W WITH THE WESTERNMOST PORTION
BEING A WARM FRONT AND THE REMAINDER A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS WELL-DEFINED...THOUGH SURFACE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH IT ONLY REACH FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS.  THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER EQUATORWARD...AND HAVE
LIMITED TO NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED AT 29N45W WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING ZONALLY ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
AROUND 28N.  THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE
RIDGE IS PRODUCING TRADEWINDS OF AT MOST FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 04N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W TO 02S45W NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL. A
SURFACE TROUGH...A CONVERGENCE LINE...EXISTS FROM THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 04N24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
EAST OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AT 28N89W.  A SECOND BROAD HIGH OF 1018 MB IS
LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERNMOST TEXAS AT 26N97W.  DUE TO A FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE GENTLE
BREEZE OR WEAKER.  ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMUM
YESTERDAY.  FORCING FOR THIS DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N MAY BE
DUE IN PART TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS.
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING.  OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WEAK HIGH SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER THE GULF.  A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
U.S. GULF COAST LATE TODAY AND MAY BARELY REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF.  DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK
FRONT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN
ADVANCE...EXPECT THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS...ALONG WITH SOME SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...
PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND HISPANIOLA LATE ON MONDAY. WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER FLAT...EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE TO GENTLE BREEZES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FRESH BREEZE NORTHEASTERLIES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA.  IF
ANYTHING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED TRADEWINDS MAY
WEAKEN EVEN MORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS MAY REDUCE
CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS...ALONG WITH SOME SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...
PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER HISPANIOLA LATE ON MONDAY. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...THIS MAY REDUCE CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OVER HISPANIOLA...WHICH IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N67W.  A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD IN OUR AREA FROM 32N64W TO HISPANIOLA.  ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N.
SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE CONDITIONS...BUT ARE WEAKER BEHIND THE FRONT.  A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO IS PRESENT FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS...THOUGH THIS FEATURE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR
WINDS WITH IT.  THE LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH AN UPPER LOW
OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THE SAME LOCATION.  THE
UPPER LOW IS STARTING TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND BE ADVECTED
QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST.  THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
HAS LIMITED BAROCLINICITY...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
FRONT.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LOW AND THE FRONT WILL BE
ABSORBED WITHIN A NEWLY DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND MORE
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...THE LATTER WILL REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER EAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLES THE NORTHERN BORDER
FROM 32N48W TO 30N37W TO 32N29W WITH THE WESTERNMOST PORTION
BEING A WARM FRONT AND THE REMAINDER A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS WELL-DEFINED...THOUGH SURFACE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH IT ONLY REACH FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS.  THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER EQUATORWARD...AND HAVE
LIMITED TO NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED AT 29N45W WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING ZONALLY ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
AROUND 28N.  THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE
RIDGE IS PRODUCING TRADEWINDS OF AT MOST FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220910
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 7N77W TO 4N84W. ITCZ FROM 5N114W TO 4N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 105W-120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 130W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N129W TO 24N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO TO 20N110W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY
AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 17N
BETWEEN 105W-115W AND FROM 15N-25N W OF 115W. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
6N131W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE
COAST OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N89W.

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 12N W OF 105W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR 15-20 KT
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 5N-20N W OF 120W. OTHERWISE AN
AREA OF LARGE NW SWELL IS NW OF A LINE FROM 28N115W TO 15N120W
TO 5N140W...WITH SEAS 8-10 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
32N130W TO 27N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 4N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 38W TO 2S45W NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL. NUMEROUS
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 15W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF COASTAL
ALABAMA AT 28N88W.  WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE AT GENTLE BREEZE OR WEAKER.  ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  FORCING FOR THIS DEEP
CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N MAY BE DUE IN PART TO A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING.  OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WEAK HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF.  A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE U.S. GULF COAST LATE ON TUESDAY AND MAY BARELY
REACH THE NORTHERN GULF.  DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK FRONT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOIST
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE...EXPECT THE EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE RATHER LIMITED.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN CUBA WITH A REMNANT TROUGH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  LITTLE BAROCLINICITY REMAINS WITH
THE BOUNDARIES...THOUGH THEY DID PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...AND HISPANIOLA
LATE ON MONDAY. WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER
FLAT...EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE TO
GENTLE BREEZES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH BREEZE
NORTHEASTERLIES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA.  IF ANYTHING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED TRADEWINDS MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS MAY REDUCE
CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN CUBA .  LITTLE BAROCLINICITY REMAINS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...THOUGH IT DID PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER HISPANIOLA
LATE ON MONDAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS MAY REDUCE CHANCES OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER HISPANIOLA...WHICH IS
OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N69W.  A COLD FRONT FROM THE
LOW EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD IN OUR AREA FROM 32N66W TO THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.  ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.
SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE CONDITIONS...BUT ARE WEAKER BEHIND THE FRONT.  A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO IS PRESENT FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THOUGH THIS FEATURE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OR WINDS WITH IT.  THE LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
AN UPPER LOW OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THE SAME
LOCATION.  THE UPPER LOW IS STARTING TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH
AND BE ADVECTED QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS LIMITED BAROCLINICITY...BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE FRONT.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LOW AND
THE FRONT WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN A NEWLY DEVELOPING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...THE LATTER WILL
REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT STRADDLES THE NORTHERN BORDER FROM
32N47W TO 31N40W TO 32N33W.  THIS FRONT IS WELL-DEFINED...THOUGH
SURFACE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT ONLY REACH FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT NOT MUCH
FARTHER EQUATORWARD...AND HAVE LIMITED TO NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED AT 27N43W WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING ZONALLY ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
AROUND 27N.  THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE
RIDGE IS PRODUCING TRADEWINDS OF AT MOST FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 4N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 38W TO 2S45W NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL. NUMEROUS
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 15W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF COASTAL
ALABAMA AT 28N88W.  WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE AT GENTLE BREEZE OR WEAKER.  ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  FORCING FOR THIS DEEP
CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N MAY BE DUE IN PART TO A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING.  OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WEAK HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF.  A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE U.S. GULF COAST LATE ON TUESDAY AND MAY BARELY
REACH THE NORTHERN GULF.  DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK FRONT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOIST
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE...EXPECT THE EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE RATHER LIMITED.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN CUBA WITH A REMNANT TROUGH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  LITTLE BAROCLINICITY REMAINS WITH
THE BOUNDARIES...THOUGH THEY DID PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...AND HISPANIOLA
LATE ON MONDAY. WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER
FLAT...EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE TO
GENTLE BREEZES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH BREEZE
NORTHEASTERLIES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA.  IF ANYTHING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED TRADEWINDS MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS MAY REDUCE
CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN CUBA .  LITTLE BAROCLINICITY REMAINS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...THOUGH IT DID PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER HISPANIOLA
LATE ON MONDAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS MAY REDUCE CHANCES OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER HISPANIOLA...WHICH IS
OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N69W.  A COLD FRONT FROM THE
LOW EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD IN OUR AREA FROM 32N66W TO THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.  ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.
SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE CONDITIONS...BUT ARE WEAKER BEHIND THE FRONT.  A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO IS PRESENT FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THOUGH THIS FEATURE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OR WINDS WITH IT.  THE LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
AN UPPER LOW OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THE SAME
LOCATION.  THE UPPER LOW IS STARTING TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH
AND BE ADVECTED QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS LIMITED BAROCLINICITY...BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE FRONT.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LOW AND
THE FRONT WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN A NEWLY DEVELOPING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...THE LATTER WILL
REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT STRADDLES THE NORTHERN BORDER FROM
32N47W TO 31N40W TO 32N33W.  THIS FRONT IS WELL-DEFINED...THOUGH
SURFACE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT ONLY REACH FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT NOT MUCH
FARTHER EQUATORWARD...AND HAVE LIMITED TO NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED AT 27N43W WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING ZONALLY ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
AROUND 27N.  THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE
RIDGE IS PRODUCING TRADEWINDS OF AT MOST FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 4N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 38W TO 2S45W NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL. NUMEROUS
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 15W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF COASTAL
ALABAMA AT 28N88W.  WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE AT GENTLE BREEZE OR WEAKER.  ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  FORCING FOR THIS DEEP
CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N MAY BE DUE IN PART TO A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING.  OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WEAK HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF.  A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE U.S. GULF COAST LATE ON TUESDAY AND MAY BARELY
REACH THE NORTHERN GULF.  DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK FRONT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOIST
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE...EXPECT THE EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE RATHER LIMITED.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN CUBA WITH A REMNANT TROUGH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  LITTLE BAROCLINICITY REMAINS WITH
THE BOUNDARIES...THOUGH THEY DID PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...AND HISPANIOLA
LATE ON MONDAY. WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER
FLAT...EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE TO
GENTLE BREEZES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH BREEZE
NORTHEASTERLIES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA.  IF ANYTHING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED TRADEWINDS MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS MAY REDUCE
CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN CUBA .  LITTLE BAROCLINICITY REMAINS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...THOUGH IT DID PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER HISPANIOLA
LATE ON MONDAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS MAY REDUCE CHANCES OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER HISPANIOLA...WHICH IS
OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N69W.  A COLD FRONT FROM THE
LOW EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD IN OUR AREA FROM 32N66W TO THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.  ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.
SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE CONDITIONS...BUT ARE WEAKER BEHIND THE FRONT.  A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO IS PRESENT FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THOUGH THIS FEATURE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OR WINDS WITH IT.  THE LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
AN UPPER LOW OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THE SAME
LOCATION.  THE UPPER LOW IS STARTING TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH
AND BE ADVECTED QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS LIMITED BAROCLINICITY...BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE FRONT.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LOW AND
THE FRONT WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN A NEWLY DEVELOPING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...THE LATTER WILL
REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT STRADDLES THE NORTHERN BORDER FROM
32N47W TO 31N40W TO 32N33W.  THIS FRONT IS WELL-DEFINED...THOUGH
SURFACE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT ONLY REACH FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT NOT MUCH
FARTHER EQUATORWARD...AND HAVE LIMITED TO NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED AT 27N43W WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING ZONALLY ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
AROUND 27N.  THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE
RIDGE IS PRODUCING TRADEWINDS OF AT MOST FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 4N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 38W TO 2S45W NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL. NUMEROUS
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 15W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF COASTAL
ALABAMA AT 28N88W.  WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE AT GENTLE BREEZE OR WEAKER.  ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  FORCING FOR THIS DEEP
CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N MAY BE DUE IN PART TO A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING.  OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WEAK HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF.  A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE U.S. GULF COAST LATE ON TUESDAY AND MAY BARELY
REACH THE NORTHERN GULF.  DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK FRONT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOIST
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE...EXPECT THE EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE RATHER LIMITED.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN CUBA WITH A REMNANT TROUGH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  LITTLE BAROCLINICITY REMAINS WITH
THE BOUNDARIES...THOUGH THEY DID PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...AND HISPANIOLA
LATE ON MONDAY. WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER
FLAT...EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE TO
GENTLE BREEZES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH BREEZE
NORTHEASTERLIES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA.  IF ANYTHING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED TRADEWINDS MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS MAY REDUCE
CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN CUBA .  LITTLE BAROCLINICITY REMAINS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...THOUGH IT DID PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER HISPANIOLA
LATE ON MONDAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS MAY REDUCE CHANCES OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER HISPANIOLA...WHICH IS
OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N69W.  A COLD FRONT FROM THE
LOW EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD IN OUR AREA FROM 32N66W TO THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.  ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.
SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE CONDITIONS...BUT ARE WEAKER BEHIND THE FRONT.  A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO IS PRESENT FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THOUGH THIS FEATURE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OR WINDS WITH IT.  THE LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
AN UPPER LOW OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THE SAME
LOCATION.  THE UPPER LOW IS STARTING TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH
AND BE ADVECTED QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS LIMITED BAROCLINICITY...BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE FRONT.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LOW AND
THE FRONT WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN A NEWLY DEVELOPING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...THE LATTER WILL
REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT STRADDLES THE NORTHERN BORDER FROM
32N47W TO 31N40W TO 32N33W.  THIS FRONT IS WELL-DEFINED...THOUGH
SURFACE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT ONLY REACH FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT NOT MUCH
FARTHER EQUATORWARD...AND HAVE LIMITED TO NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED AT 27N43W WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING ZONALLY ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
AROUND 27N.  THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE
RIDGE IS PRODUCING TRADEWINDS OF AT MOST FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS FROM 05N96W TO 07N109W TO 06N117W TO
06N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 02-09N...AND IS DECAYING WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N83W TO 06N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS OBSERVED WELL N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N106W TO 11N114W TO 09N130W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO
13N BETWEEN 105W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. THIS
TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE N OF 26N WITHIN
ABOUT 480 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING E
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE N OF 32N. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES SW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF CALIFORNIA TO A BASE OVER THE EPAC NEAR 16N107W. A
300 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 110W-140W...CONTINUES E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 12N109W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AT 20N110W...THEN FANS OUT
AS IT SPREADS NE ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 08N131W WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS...
JUST DESCRIBED...TO A CREST AMPLIFYING N ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA.
EXCEPT AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY TO THE N
OF 17N WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
E FROM THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AT 08N131W TO A CREST NEAR
07N107W AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 08N98W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST OVER SE GEORGIA. UPPER MOISTURE
IS OBSERVED OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100-107W.

A WEAK ILL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER NICARAGUA
TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N94W...AND EFFECTIVELY
SEPARATES THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 08N TO THE E OF 90W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE E OF 90W.
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE
ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE TURNS E
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS THE EPAC TO THE N OF 08N BETWEEN 85-96W.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS FROM
32N129W TO 27.5N140W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY BRIDGING
THROUGH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR 30N140W TO
19N110W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED
NE WIND WAVES...AND NOW REINFORCED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL STILL
MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL.

THE REINFORCING NW SWELL HAS REACHED THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FT...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF
25N TONIGHT. THE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF ON TUE. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF 120W TO BAJA PENINSULA. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THU. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE S AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL
PROPAGATES N TO ALONG 25N ON FRI.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS FROM 05N96W TO 07N109W TO 06N117W TO
06N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 02-09N...AND IS DECAYING WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N83W TO 06N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS OBSERVED WELL N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N106W TO 11N114W TO 09N130W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO
13N BETWEEN 105W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. THIS
TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE N OF 26N WITHIN
ABOUT 480 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING E
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE N OF 32N. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES SW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF CALIFORNIA TO A BASE OVER THE EPAC NEAR 16N107W. A
300 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 110W-140W...CONTINUES E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 12N109W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AT 20N110W...THEN FANS OUT
AS IT SPREADS NE ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 08N131W WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS...
JUST DESCRIBED...TO A CREST AMPLIFYING N ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA.
EXCEPT AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY TO THE N
OF 17N WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
E FROM THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AT 08N131W TO A CREST NEAR
07N107W AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 08N98W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST OVER SE GEORGIA. UPPER MOISTURE
IS OBSERVED OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100-107W.

A WEAK ILL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER NICARAGUA
TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N94W...AND EFFECTIVELY
SEPARATES THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 08N TO THE E OF 90W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE E OF 90W.
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE
ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE TURNS E
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS THE EPAC TO THE N OF 08N BETWEEN 85-96W.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS FROM
32N129W TO 27.5N140W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY BRIDGING
THROUGH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR 30N140W TO
19N110W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED
NE WIND WAVES...AND NOW REINFORCED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL STILL
MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL.

THE REINFORCING NW SWELL HAS REACHED THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FT...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF
25N TONIGHT. THE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF ON TUE. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF 120W TO BAJA PENINSULA. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THU. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE S AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL
PROPAGATES N TO ALONG 25N ON FRI.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS FROM 05N96W TO 07N109W TO 06N117W TO
06N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 02-09N...AND IS DECAYING WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N83W TO 06N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS OBSERVED WELL N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N106W TO 11N114W TO 09N130W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO
13N BETWEEN 105W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. THIS
TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE N OF 26N WITHIN
ABOUT 480 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING E
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE N OF 32N. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES SW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF CALIFORNIA TO A BASE OVER THE EPAC NEAR 16N107W. A
300 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 110W-140W...CONTINUES E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 12N109W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AT 20N110W...THEN FANS OUT
AS IT SPREADS NE ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 08N131W WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS...
JUST DESCRIBED...TO A CREST AMPLIFYING N ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA.
EXCEPT AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY TO THE N
OF 17N WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
E FROM THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AT 08N131W TO A CREST NEAR
07N107W AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 08N98W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST OVER SE GEORGIA. UPPER MOISTURE
IS OBSERVED OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100-107W.

A WEAK ILL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER NICARAGUA
TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N94W...AND EFFECTIVELY
SEPARATES THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 08N TO THE E OF 90W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE E OF 90W.
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE
ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE TURNS E
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS THE EPAC TO THE N OF 08N BETWEEN 85-96W.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS FROM
32N129W TO 27.5N140W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY BRIDGING
THROUGH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR 30N140W TO
19N110W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED
NE WIND WAVES...AND NOW REINFORCED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL STILL
MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL.

THE REINFORCING NW SWELL HAS REACHED THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FT...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF
25N TONIGHT. THE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF ON TUE. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF 120W TO BAJA PENINSULA. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THU. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE S AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL
PROPAGATES N TO ALONG 25N ON FRI.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS FROM 05N96W TO 07N109W TO 06N117W TO
06N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 02-09N...AND IS DECAYING WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N83W TO 06N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS OBSERVED WELL N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N106W TO 11N114W TO 09N130W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO
13N BETWEEN 105W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. THIS
TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE N OF 26N WITHIN
ABOUT 480 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING E
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE N OF 32N. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES SW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF CALIFORNIA TO A BASE OVER THE EPAC NEAR 16N107W. A
300 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 110W-140W...CONTINUES E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 12N109W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AT 20N110W...THEN FANS OUT
AS IT SPREADS NE ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 08N131W WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS...
JUST DESCRIBED...TO A CREST AMPLIFYING N ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA.
EXCEPT AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY TO THE N
OF 17N WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
E FROM THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AT 08N131W TO A CREST NEAR
07N107W AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 08N98W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST OVER SE GEORGIA. UPPER MOISTURE
IS OBSERVED OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100-107W.

A WEAK ILL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER NICARAGUA
TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N94W...AND EFFECTIVELY
SEPARATES THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 08N TO THE E OF 90W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE E OF 90W.
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE
ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE TURNS E
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS THE EPAC TO THE N OF 08N BETWEEN 85-96W.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS FROM
32N129W TO 27.5N140W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY BRIDGING
THROUGH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR 30N140W TO
19N110W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED
NE WIND WAVES...AND NOW REINFORCED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL STILL
MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL.

THE REINFORCING NW SWELL HAS REACHED THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FT...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF
25N TONIGHT. THE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF ON TUE. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF 120W TO BAJA PENINSULA. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THU. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE S AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL
PROPAGATES N TO ALONG 25N ON FRI.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 4N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N25W THROUGH
1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 2S45W NEAR THE COAST
OF BRAZIL. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 4N2W THROUGH 3N10W TO 4N21W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 13W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND TEXAS ARE MOVING EASTWARD WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NW GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SWEEPING
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF N OF 23N. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA DOMINATES THE GULF
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NOTED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS INCREASING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WITH SURFACE WINDS MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
NOTED OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY. PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WERE NOTED OVER THE GULF E OF 90W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NICARAGUA.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
WESTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE
RIDGE...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS WERE NOTED TO THE NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF 68W...AND NORTH
OF 16N WEST OF 70W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED
MODERATE TRADE WINDS EAST OF 70W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WITH LIGHT TRADES ELSEWHERE. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WERE NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF YUCATAN AND BELIZE BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N77.5W TO 19N84W.

...HISPANIOLA...

GENERALLY ZONAL WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER HISPANIOLA ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A FLAT RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PROXIMITY
OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTREME EASTERN CUBA ACROSS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LAST LOW LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE AREA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND 500 MB SHOWS NORTHWEST TO
WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N69W
WAS NOW MOVING EASTWARD AND BECOMING KICKED OUT BY AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. ASSOCIATED TROUGHING COVERS THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 62W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WAS WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N TO 68W.
THIS TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH 32N68W TO
25N70W...TO EXTREME EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
CONTINUED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED
THROUGH 32N71W TO THE EXTREME NE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
SE BAHAMAS TO 29N.

A SHEARING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 25N30W THROUGH 21N40W TO A BASE NEAR 13N55W. STRONG DEEP LAYERED
SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...
GENERALLY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-23N WEST OF 45W...AND FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N47W
DOMINATED THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 4N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N25W THROUGH
1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 2S45W NEAR THE COAST
OF BRAZIL. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 4N2W THROUGH 3N10W TO 4N21W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 13W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND TEXAS ARE MOVING EASTWARD WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NW GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SWEEPING
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF N OF 23N. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA DOMINATES THE GULF
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NOTED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS INCREASING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WITH SURFACE WINDS MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
NOTED OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY. PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WERE NOTED OVER THE GULF E OF 90W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NICARAGUA.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
WESTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE
RIDGE...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS WERE NOTED TO THE NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF 68W...AND NORTH
OF 16N WEST OF 70W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED
MODERATE TRADE WINDS EAST OF 70W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WITH LIGHT TRADES ELSEWHERE. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WERE NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF YUCATAN AND BELIZE BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N77.5W TO 19N84W.

...HISPANIOLA...

GENERALLY ZONAL WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER HISPANIOLA ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A FLAT RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PROXIMITY
OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTREME EASTERN CUBA ACROSS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LAST LOW LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE AREA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND 500 MB SHOWS NORTHWEST TO
WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N69W
WAS NOW MOVING EASTWARD AND BECOMING KICKED OUT BY AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. ASSOCIATED TROUGHING COVERS THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 62W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WAS WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N TO 68W.
THIS TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH 32N68W TO
25N70W...TO EXTREME EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
CONTINUED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED
THROUGH 32N71W TO THE EXTREME NE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
SE BAHAMAS TO 29N.

A SHEARING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 25N30W THROUGH 21N40W TO A BASE NEAR 13N55W. STRONG DEEP LAYERED
SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...
GENERALLY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-23N WEST OF 45W...AND FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N47W
DOMINATED THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS FROM 08N92W TO 06N100W TO 06N132W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N78W TO 07N83W TO 04N89W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 02-12N BETWEEN 105-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N131W TO 25N140W. THIS
TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE ABOUT 480 NM E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE N OF 33N. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES SW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
CALIFORNIA TO A BASE OVER THE EPAC NEAR 15N113W. A 300 NM WIDE
BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 110W-140W...CONTINUES E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N111W
TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AT 20N110W...THEN FANS OUT AS IT
SPREADS NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 08N131W WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS...
JUST DESCRIBED...TO A CREST AMPLIFYING N ACROSS ARIZONA. EXCEPT
AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY TO THE N OF 17N
WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E FROM
THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AT 08N131W TO A CREST NEAR 07N110W AND
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE
ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 08N98W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. UPPER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100-110W.

A WEAK ILL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER NICARAGUA
TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N94W...AND EFFECTIVELY
SEPARATES THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 08N TO THE E OF 92W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE E OF 90W.
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE
ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE TURNS E
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS THE EPAC TO THE N OF 08N BETWEEN 85-96W.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS FROM
32N130W TO 28N140W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY BRIDGING THROUGH
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N110W. NE
TRADES AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM 08-22N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED NE WIND
WAVES...AND NOW REINFORCED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL STILL MIXING
WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THE REINFORCING NW
SWELL HAS REACHED THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM
OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD S ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 25N TONIGHT. THE NW SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF
120W TO BAJA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE ON THU. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE S AS CROSS
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATES N TO ALONG 25N ON FRI.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS FROM 08N92W TO 06N100W TO 06N132W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N78W TO 07N83W TO 04N89W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 02-12N BETWEEN 105-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N131W TO 25N140W. THIS
TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE ABOUT 480 NM E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE N OF 33N. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES SW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
CALIFORNIA TO A BASE OVER THE EPAC NEAR 15N113W. A 300 NM WIDE
BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 110W-140W...CONTINUES E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N111W
TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AT 20N110W...THEN FANS OUT AS IT
SPREADS NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 08N131W WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS...
JUST DESCRIBED...TO A CREST AMPLIFYING N ACROSS ARIZONA. EXCEPT
AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY TO THE N OF 17N
WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E FROM
THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AT 08N131W TO A CREST NEAR 07N110W AND
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE
ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 08N98W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. UPPER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100-110W.

A WEAK ILL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER NICARAGUA
TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N94W...AND EFFECTIVELY
SEPARATES THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 08N TO THE E OF 92W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE E OF 90W.
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE
ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE TURNS E
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS THE EPAC TO THE N OF 08N BETWEEN 85-96W.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS FROM
32N130W TO 28N140W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY BRIDGING THROUGH
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 19N110W. NE
TRADES AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM 08-22N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED NE WIND
WAVES...AND NOW REINFORCED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL STILL MIXING
WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THE REINFORCING NW
SWELL HAS REACHED THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM
OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD S ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 25N TONIGHT. THE NW SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF
120W TO BAJA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE ON THU. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE S AS CROSS
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATES N TO ALONG 25N ON FRI.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N14W TO 2N25W
2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...TO 3S39W NEAR THE COAST
OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W...AND FROM 2N TO 1S BETWEEN
48W AND 51W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 4N TO 3S BETWEEN 27W
AND 40W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N1W IN GHANA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF GHANA...TO 3N6W AND 3N12W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
THE EQUATOR TO THE EAST OF 8W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
TROUGH ARE MOVING EASTWARD...THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL STATES BETWEEN FLORIDA AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER THE AREA
OF BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...FROM THE AREA OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN SOUTHWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG
WERE BEING OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF LOUISIANA. THE SKIES
HAVE BEEN CLEARING DURING THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PATTERSON LOUISIANA STILL IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING.
MOSTLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND SOME HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD.
VALPARAISO IS REPORTING A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SARASOTA AND PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES/
CLEARING SKIES COVER FORT MYERS AND NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE
RIDGE...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF
70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 70W...IN SURFACE
TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.57 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.24 IN TRINIDAD. THE PRECIPITATION
IN MONTEGO BAY WAS RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 20N82W. THE PRECIPITATION IN TRINIDAD WAS RELATED TO A
WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WEAK
MAXIMA IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
AND IT MAY ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO
RICO. SUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE
RIDGE...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND 500 MB SHOWS NORTHWEST TO
WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP
OF THE AREA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N70W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N...BETWEEN 60W AND
80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 26N70W...TO 22N74W IN
THE BAHAMAS...TO 20N78W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
20N78W TO 20N82W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA OF CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FROM 32N SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W...AND FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N33W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N47W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 500
NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 21N34W 17N42W...AND WITHIN 800
NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 17N42W 11N49W 9N59W.

A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N47W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 67W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO 21N75W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N74W TO 27N77W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT TO 65W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
TO THE EAST OF 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N14W TO 2N25W
2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...TO 3S39W NEAR THE COAST
OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W...AND FROM 2N TO 1S BETWEEN
48W AND 51W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 4N TO 3S BETWEEN 27W
AND 40W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N1W IN GHANA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF GHANA...TO 3N6W AND 3N12W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
THE EQUATOR TO THE EAST OF 8W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
TROUGH ARE MOVING EASTWARD...THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL STATES BETWEEN FLORIDA AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER THE AREA
OF BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...FROM THE AREA OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN SOUTHWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG
WERE BEING OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF LOUISIANA. THE SKIES
HAVE BEEN CLEARING DURING THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PATTERSON LOUISIANA STILL IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING.
MOSTLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND SOME HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD.
VALPARAISO IS REPORTING A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SARASOTA AND PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES/
CLEARING SKIES COVER FORT MYERS AND NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE
RIDGE...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF
70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 70W...IN SURFACE
TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.57 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.24 IN TRINIDAD. THE PRECIPITATION
IN MONTEGO BAY WAS RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 20N82W. THE PRECIPITATION IN TRINIDAD WAS RELATED TO A
WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WEAK
MAXIMA IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
AND IT MAY ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO
RICO. SUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE
RIDGE...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND 500 MB SHOWS NORTHWEST TO
WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP
OF THE AREA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N70W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N...BETWEEN 60W AND
80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 26N70W...TO 22N74W IN
THE BAHAMAS...TO 20N78W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
20N78W TO 20N82W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA OF CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FROM 32N SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W...AND FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N33W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N47W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 500
NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 21N34W 17N42W...AND WITHIN 800
NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 17N42W 11N49W 9N59W.

A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N47W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 67W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO 21N75W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N74W TO 27N77W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT TO 65W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
TO THE EAST OF 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211521
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N92W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N92W TO 06N110W TO 05N140W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO 07N E OF
80W AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND
88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
08N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...AND FROM
02N TO 05N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 31N135W TO BEYOND
27N140W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY CROSSES 30N140W. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY.
A RIDGE IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 120W
COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-125W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTO NW MEXICO.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 18N BETWEEN 110N-125W AND FROM 15N-
25N W OF 125W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 7N133W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 2N-9N
BETWEEN 120W-135W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS HELPING TO INDUCE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA...PARTICULARLY N OF 4N E OF 85W.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 35N154W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20
KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR 34N145W BY 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. AS
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS...EXPECT INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO
AROUND 11 FT OFF OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 28N E
OF 123W BY WED MORNING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 11 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL
MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO
COVER MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W BY TUE MORNING. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS MAINLY E OF 110W.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211521
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N92W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N92W TO 06N110W TO 05N140W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO 07N E OF
80W AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND
88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
08N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...AND FROM
02N TO 05N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 31N135W TO BEYOND
27N140W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY CROSSES 30N140W. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY.
A RIDGE IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 120W
COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-125W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTO NW MEXICO.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 18N BETWEEN 110N-125W AND FROM 15N-
25N W OF 125W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 7N133W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 2N-9N
BETWEEN 120W-135W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS HELPING TO INDUCE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA...PARTICULARLY N OF 4N E OF 85W.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 35N154W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20
KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR 34N145W BY 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. AS
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS...EXPECT INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO
AROUND 11 FT OFF OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 28N E
OF 123W BY WED MORNING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP
TO 11 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL
MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO
COVER MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W BY TUE MORNING. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS MAINLY E OF 110W.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL
AND THE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 14N17W
TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THERE AND CONTINUES JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR WEST OF 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
SOUTH OF WEST AFRICA EAST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE-
ALABAMA BORDER WITH A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CORRESPONDINGLY...SURFACE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST IN THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WESTERN GULF.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
OCCURRING.  RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS IS BLOWING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AS UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM DEEP
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO LATE YESTERDAY.  OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF EVEN MORE AS THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT DAY...THOUGH LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO EASTERN CUBA WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INDICATED FROM
THERE TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...WITH
THE USUAL EXCEPTION OF STRONGER NE WINDS OF 25 KT NORTH OF
COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS FURTHER SLACKEN. ENHANCED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE...POSSIBLY AN EARLY
SEASON WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...ALSO IS REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THE WEAK MAXIMA
IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER HAITI AND
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE BAHAMAS
SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTHEAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 32N73W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
EASTERN CUBA AND A SECONDARY TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ABOUT
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.  SURFACE WINDS REACH UP
TO 30 KT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.  ALL OF THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW AT ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION AS THE SURFACE LOW.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD LIFT OUT AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.  WHILE THE BAROCLINICITY OF THE
COLD FRONT WEAKENS SOME...LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN UP TO STRONG BREEZE OR NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.   FARTHER TO THE EAST...A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY JUST REACH AROUND 30N EAST OF 40W LATE
TODAY...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT
APPEARS MINIMAL AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 10253 MB HIGH NEAR 29N51W WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL
AND THE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 14N17W
TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THERE AND CONTINUES JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR WEST OF 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
SOUTH OF WEST AFRICA EAST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE-
ALABAMA BORDER WITH A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CORRESPONDINGLY...SURFACE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST IN THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WESTERN GULF.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
OCCURRING.  RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS IS BLOWING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AS UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM DEEP
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO LATE YESTERDAY.  OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF EVEN MORE AS THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT DAY...THOUGH LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO EASTERN CUBA WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INDICATED FROM
THERE TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...WITH
THE USUAL EXCEPTION OF STRONGER NE WINDS OF 25 KT NORTH OF
COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS FURTHER SLACKEN. ENHANCED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE...POSSIBLY AN EARLY
SEASON WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...ALSO IS REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THE WEAK MAXIMA
IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER HAITI AND
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE BAHAMAS
SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTHEAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 32N73W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
EASTERN CUBA AND A SECONDARY TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ABOUT
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.  SURFACE WINDS REACH UP
TO 30 KT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.  ALL OF THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW AT ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION AS THE SURFACE LOW.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD LIFT OUT AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.  WHILE THE BAROCLINICITY OF THE
COLD FRONT WEAKENS SOME...LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN UP TO STRONG BREEZE OR NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.   FARTHER TO THE EAST...A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY JUST REACH AROUND 30N EAST OF 40W LATE
TODAY...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT
APPEARS MINIMAL AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 10253 MB HIGH NEAR 29N51W WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL
AND THE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 14N17W
TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THERE AND CONTINUES JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR WEST OF 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
SOUTH OF WEST AFRICA EAST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE-
ALABAMA BORDER WITH A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CORRESPONDINGLY...SURFACE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST IN THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WESTERN GULF.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
OCCURRING.  RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS IS BLOWING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AS UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM DEEP
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO LATE YESTERDAY.  OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF EVEN MORE AS THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT DAY...THOUGH LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO EASTERN CUBA WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INDICATED FROM
THERE TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...WITH
THE USUAL EXCEPTION OF STRONGER NE WINDS OF 25 KT NORTH OF
COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS FURTHER SLACKEN. ENHANCED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE...POSSIBLY AN EARLY
SEASON WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...ALSO IS REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THE WEAK MAXIMA
IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER HAITI AND
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE BAHAMAS
SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTHEAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 32N73W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
EASTERN CUBA AND A SECONDARY TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ABOUT
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.  SURFACE WINDS REACH UP
TO 30 KT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.  ALL OF THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW AT ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION AS THE SURFACE LOW.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD LIFT OUT AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.  WHILE THE BAROCLINICITY OF THE
COLD FRONT WEAKENS SOME...LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN UP TO STRONG BREEZE OR NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.   FARTHER TO THE EAST...A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY JUST REACH AROUND 30N EAST OF 40W LATE
TODAY...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT
APPEARS MINIMAL AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 10253 MB HIGH NEAR 29N51W WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL
AND THE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 14N17W
TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THERE AND CONTINUES JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR WEST OF 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
SOUTH OF WEST AFRICA EAST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE-
ALABAMA BORDER WITH A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CORRESPONDINGLY...SURFACE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST IN THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WESTERN GULF.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
OCCURRING.  RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS IS BLOWING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AS UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM DEEP
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO LATE YESTERDAY.  OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF EVEN MORE AS THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT DAY...THOUGH LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO EASTERN CUBA WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INDICATED FROM
THERE TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...WITH
THE USUAL EXCEPTION OF STRONGER NE WINDS OF 25 KT NORTH OF
COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS FURTHER SLACKEN. ENHANCED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE...POSSIBLY AN EARLY
SEASON WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...ALSO IS REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THE WEAK MAXIMA
IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER HAITI AND
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE BAHAMAS
SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTHEAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 32N73W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
EASTERN CUBA AND A SECONDARY TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ABOUT
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.  SURFACE WINDS REACH UP
TO 30 KT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.  ALL OF THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW AT ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION AS THE SURFACE LOW.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD LIFT OUT AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.  WHILE THE BAROCLINICITY OF THE
COLD FRONT WEAKENS SOME...LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN UP TO STRONG BREEZE OR NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.   FARTHER TO THE EAST...A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY JUST REACH AROUND 30N EAST OF 40W LATE
TODAY...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT
APPEARS MINIMAL AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 10253 MB HIGH NEAR 29N51W WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210907
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 5N93W. ITCZ FROM 5N93W TO 4N105W
TO 6N125W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 120W-135W

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 115W-130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 18N BETWEEN 110N-125W AND
FROM 15N-25N W OF 125W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 5N133W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 120W-135W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EL SALVADOR S TO 8N87W.

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR 15-20 KT
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 10N-20N W OF 125W. AN AREA OF
LARGE NW SWELL IS NW OF A LINE FROM 3N119W TO 20N140W...WITH
SEAS 8-10 FT.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210907
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 5N93W. ITCZ FROM 5N93W TO 4N105W
TO 6N125W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 120W-135W

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 115W-130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 18N BETWEEN 110N-125W AND
FROM 15N-25N W OF 125W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 5N133W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 120W-135W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EL SALVADOR S TO 8N87W.

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR 15-20 KT
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 10N-20N W OF 125W. AN AREA OF
LARGE NW SWELL IS NW OF A LINE FROM 3N119W TO 20N140W...WITH
SEAS 8-10 FT.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 210551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL
AND THE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 13N17W
TO 06N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THERE AND CONTINUES JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR WEST OF 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE ITCZ WEST OF 35W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXISTS SOUTH OF WEST AFRICA EAST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CORRESPONDINGLY...SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE WESTERN GULF.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
OR SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING.  RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS IS
BLOWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AS UPPER-LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF EVEN MORE AS THE WEAK SURFACE
HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.  NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY...THOUGH LATE TUESDAY SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS EARLIER...THOUGH THIS IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING.  A
MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS...WITH THE USUAL EXCEPTION OF STRONGER NE WINDS OF 25
KT NORTH OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS FURTHER SLACKEN. ENHANCED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.  ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE
ALSO...POSSIBLY AN EARLY SEASON WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...IS REACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
DISSIPATE NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE
GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND MAY ENHANCE SHOWER AND WIDELY
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI
AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLIER TODAY HAS DIMINISHED.  ENHANCED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS
SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTH OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 31N75W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
EASTERN CUBA AND A SECONDARY TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ABOUT
100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.  SURFACE WINDS REACH UP
TO 30 KT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.  ALL OF THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW AT ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION AS THE SURFACE LOW.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD LIFT OUT AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.  WHILE THE BAROCLINICITY OF THE
COLD FRONT WEAKENS SOME...LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN UP TO STRONG BREEZE OR NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.   FARTHER TO THE EAST...A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY JUST REACH AROUND 30N EAST OF 40W LATE ON
MONDAY...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS
APPEARS MINIMAL AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N45W WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAY.  FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 210551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL
AND THE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 13N17W
TO 06N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THERE AND CONTINUES JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR WEST OF 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE ITCZ WEST OF 35W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXISTS SOUTH OF WEST AFRICA EAST OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CORRESPONDINGLY...SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE WESTERN GULF.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
OR SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING.  RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS IS
BLOWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AS UPPER-LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF EVEN MORE AS THE WEAK SURFACE
HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.  NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY...THOUGH LATE TUESDAY SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS EARLIER...THOUGH THIS IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING.  A
MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS...WITH THE USUAL EXCEPTION OF STRONGER NE WINDS OF 25
KT NORTH OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS FURTHER SLACKEN. ENHANCED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.  ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE
ALSO...POSSIBLY AN EARLY SEASON WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...IS REACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
DISSIPATE NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE
GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND MAY ENHANCE SHOWER AND WIDELY
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI
AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLIER TODAY HAS DIMINISHED.  ENHANCED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED WITH THE TPW IMAGERY ACROSS
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS SHORTLY...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS
SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTH OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 31N75W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
EASTERN CUBA AND A SECONDARY TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ABOUT
100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N.  SURFACE WINDS REACH UP
TO 30 KT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.  ALL OF THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW AT ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION AS THE SURFACE LOW.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD LIFT OUT AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.  WHILE THE BAROCLINICITY OF THE
COLD FRONT WEAKENS SOME...LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN UP TO STRONG BREEZE OR NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.   FARTHER TO THE EAST...A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY JUST REACH AROUND 30N EAST OF 40W LATE ON
MONDAY...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS
APPEARS MINIMAL AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N45W WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAY.  FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 04N77W TO 04.5N80W THEN TURNS NW TO 06N91W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W TO 06N107W THEN WSW TO 04.5N120W...THEN
WNW TO BEYOND 07N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND
TO THE S OF OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 07N100W...AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 11N118W TO 06N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF 04N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC NEAR
10N126W. A 180 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES E
OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. THE MOISTURE ORIGINATES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
NEAR 10N116W...AND SPREADS NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
AT 19N106W...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...AND IS PRECEDED BY A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
MOISTURE OBSERVED TO THE N OF 28N AND W OF 126W...WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE THINNING AS IT SPREADS E ACROSS
THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 34N. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS
NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS...
ROUGHLY WITHIN 540 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N108W TO
18N131W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 07N146W WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AND OVER THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ENHANCING THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 125W. AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 19N109W TO 10N125W
WITH CONVECTION FLARING SE OF THE TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION CONCENTRATES
INTO THE TROPICAL PLUME ALSO ALREADY MENTIONED. JUST TO E IS
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 07N105W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST AT 14N96W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCED SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EARLIER
ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER HONDURAS TO A BASE OVER
THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N96W. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 05N TO A CREST NEAR 05N92W. WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN
85-98W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA IS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N132W TO NEAR 14N102W. NE TRADES
ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 06N TO THE W OF
115W...WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS WILL
BE REINFORCED ON MON BY A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL THAT HAS MOVED
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 21N140W.
THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON
MON...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF
20N THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N
E OF 122W TO BAJA PENINSULA ON WED. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 04N77W TO 04.5N80W THEN TURNS NW TO 06N91W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W TO 06N107W THEN WSW TO 04.5N120W...THEN
WNW TO BEYOND 07N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND
TO THE S OF OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 07N100W...AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 11N118W TO 06N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF 04N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC NEAR
10N126W. A 180 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES E
OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. THE MOISTURE ORIGINATES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
NEAR 10N116W...AND SPREADS NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
AT 19N106W...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...AND IS PRECEDED BY A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
MOISTURE OBSERVED TO THE N OF 28N AND W OF 126W...WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE THINNING AS IT SPREADS E ACROSS
THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 34N. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS
NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS...
ROUGHLY WITHIN 540 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N108W TO
18N131W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 07N146W WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AND OVER THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ENHANCING THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 125W. AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 19N109W TO 10N125W
WITH CONVECTION FLARING SE OF THE TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION CONCENTRATES
INTO THE TROPICAL PLUME ALSO ALREADY MENTIONED. JUST TO E IS
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 07N105W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST AT 14N96W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCED SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EARLIER
ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER HONDURAS TO A BASE OVER
THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N96W. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 05N TO A CREST NEAR 05N92W. WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN
85-98W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA IS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N132W TO NEAR 14N102W. NE TRADES
ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 06N TO THE W OF
115W...WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS WILL
BE REINFORCED ON MON BY A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL THAT HAS MOVED
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 21N140W.
THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON
MON...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF
20N THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N
E OF 122W TO BAJA PENINSULA ON WED. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 04N77W TO 04.5N80W THEN TURNS NW TO 06N91W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W TO 06N107W THEN WSW TO 04.5N120W...THEN
WNW TO BEYOND 07N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND
TO THE S OF OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 07N100W...AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 11N118W TO 06N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF 04N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC NEAR
10N126W. A 180 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES E
OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. THE MOISTURE ORIGINATES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
NEAR 10N116W...AND SPREADS NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
AT 19N106W...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...AND IS PRECEDED BY A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
MOISTURE OBSERVED TO THE N OF 28N AND W OF 126W...WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE THINNING AS IT SPREADS E ACROSS
THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 34N. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS
NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS...
ROUGHLY WITHIN 540 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N108W TO
18N131W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 07N146W WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AND OVER THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ENHANCING THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 125W. AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 19N109W TO 10N125W
WITH CONVECTION FLARING SE OF THE TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION CONCENTRATES
INTO THE TROPICAL PLUME ALSO ALREADY MENTIONED. JUST TO E IS
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 07N105W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST AT 14N96W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCED SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EARLIER
ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER HONDURAS TO A BASE OVER
THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N96W. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 05N TO A CREST NEAR 05N92W. WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN
85-98W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA IS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N132W TO NEAR 14N102W. NE TRADES
ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 06N TO THE W OF
115W...WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS WILL
BE REINFORCED ON MON BY A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL THAT HAS MOVED
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 21N140W.
THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON
MON...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF
20N THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N
E OF 122W TO BAJA PENINSULA ON WED. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 04N77W TO 04.5N80W THEN TURNS NW TO 06N91W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W TO 06N107W THEN WSW TO 04.5N120W...THEN
WNW TO BEYOND 07N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND
TO THE S OF OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 07N100W...AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 11N118W TO 06N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF 04N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC NEAR
10N126W. A 180 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES E
OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. THE MOISTURE ORIGINATES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
NEAR 10N116W...AND SPREADS NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
AT 19N106W...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...AND IS PRECEDED BY A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
MOISTURE OBSERVED TO THE N OF 28N AND W OF 126W...WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE THINNING AS IT SPREADS E ACROSS
THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 34N. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS
NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS...
ROUGHLY WITHIN 540 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N108W TO
18N131W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 07N146W WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AND OVER THE WESTERN
SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ENHANCING THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 125W. AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 19N109W TO 10N125W
WITH CONVECTION FLARING SE OF THE TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION CONCENTRATES
INTO THE TROPICAL PLUME ALSO ALREADY MENTIONED. JUST TO E IS
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 07N105W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST AT 14N96W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCED SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EARLIER
ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER HONDURAS TO A BASE OVER
THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N96W. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 05N TO A CREST NEAR 05N92W. WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN
85-98W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA IS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N132W TO NEAR 14N102W. NE TRADES
ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 06N TO THE W OF
115W...WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS WILL
BE REINFORCED ON MON BY A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL THAT HAS MOVED
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 21N140W.
THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON
MON...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF
20N THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N
E OF 122W TO BAJA PENINSULA ON WED. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THU.

$$
NELSON




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