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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THIS IS SUPPORTING MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS FLUCTUATING 40-50
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING DOWNWIND SOME 220-240 NM. IZTEPEC IN THE NORTHERN END
OF THIS GULF HAS REPORTED GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 22-23 FT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT
MORNING WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE
AROUND 1800 UTC...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
SUN MORNING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE THE THIRD STORM EVENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THIS COLD SEASON. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUE
NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON WED EVENING
THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS SAME
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMBINING WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT STRONG GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT...AND AGAIN SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXTENDING
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 93W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 02N100W TO 03N107W THEN RESUMES
AT 03N110W TO 01N125W TO BEYOND 02N140W. A SECOND ITCZ AXIS IS
NOTED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND EXTENDS FROM 07S90W TO 06S120W.
DURING MARCH AND APRIL...IT IS USUAL TO OBSERVE A DOUBLE ITCZ
AXES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THESE FEATURES.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
N OF AREA NEAR 41N127W TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE
RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING NE
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...
AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND SWELL.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THIS TIME...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND
12 FT DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE
AND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE NEAR 30N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...

THE ENHANCED NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL ALSO
SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS LIKELY
THROUGH MON MORNING.

GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AS FAR SW AS 04N82W ON EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PANAMA.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THIS IS SUPPORTING MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS FLUCTUATING 40-50
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING DOWNWIND SOME 220-240 NM. IZTEPEC IN THE NORTHERN END
OF THIS GULF HAS REPORTED GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 22-23 FT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT
MORNING WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE
AROUND 1800 UTC...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
SUN MORNING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE THE THIRD STORM EVENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THIS COLD SEASON. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUE
NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON WED EVENING
THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS SAME
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMBINING WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT STRONG GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT...AND AGAIN SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXTENDING
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 93W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 02N100W TO 03N107W THEN RESUMES
AT 03N110W TO 01N125W TO BEYOND 02N140W. A SECOND ITCZ AXIS IS
NOTED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND EXTENDS FROM 07S90W TO 06S120W.
DURING MARCH AND APRIL...IT IS USUAL TO OBSERVE A DOUBLE ITCZ
AXES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THESE FEATURES.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
N OF AREA NEAR 41N127W TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE
RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING NE
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...
AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND SWELL.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THIS TIME...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND
12 FT DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE
AND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE NEAR 30N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...

THE ENHANCED NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL ALSO
SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS LIKELY
THROUGH MON MORNING.

GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AS FAR SW AS 04N82W ON EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PANAMA.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THIS IS SUPPORTING MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS FLUCTUATING 40-50
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING DOWNWIND SOME 220-240 NM. IZTEPEC IN THE NORTHERN END
OF THIS GULF HAS REPORTED GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 22-23 FT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT
MORNING WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE
AROUND 1800 UTC...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
SUN MORNING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE THE THIRD STORM EVENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THIS COLD SEASON. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUE
NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON WED EVENING
THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS SAME
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMBINING WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT STRONG GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT...AND AGAIN SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXTENDING
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 93W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 02N100W TO 03N107W THEN RESUMES
AT 03N110W TO 01N125W TO BEYOND 02N140W. A SECOND ITCZ AXIS IS
NOTED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND EXTENDS FROM 07S90W TO 06S120W.
DURING MARCH AND APRIL...IT IS USUAL TO OBSERVE A DOUBLE ITCZ
AXES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THESE FEATURES.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
N OF AREA NEAR 41N127W TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE
RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING NE
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...
AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND SWELL.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THIS TIME...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND
12 FT DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE
AND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE NEAR 30N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...

THE ENHANCED NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL ALSO
SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS LIKELY
THROUGH MON MORNING.

GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AS FAR SW AS 04N82W ON EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PANAMA.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THIS IS SUPPORTING MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS FLUCTUATING 40-50
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING DOWNWIND SOME 220-240 NM. IZTEPEC IN THE NORTHERN END
OF THIS GULF HAS REPORTED GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 22-23 FT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT
MORNING WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE
AROUND 1800 UTC...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
SUN MORNING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE THE THIRD STORM EVENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THIS COLD SEASON. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUE
NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON WED EVENING
THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS SAME
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMBINING WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT STRONG GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT...AND AGAIN SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXTENDING
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 93W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 02N100W TO 03N107W THEN RESUMES
AT 03N110W TO 01N125W TO BEYOND 02N140W. A SECOND ITCZ AXIS IS
NOTED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND EXTENDS FROM 07S90W TO 06S120W.
DURING MARCH AND APRIL...IT IS USUAL TO OBSERVE A DOUBLE ITCZ
AXES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THESE FEATURES.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
N OF AREA NEAR 41N127W TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE
RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING NE
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...
AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND SWELL.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THIS TIME...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND
12 FT DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE
AND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE NEAR 30N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...

THE ENHANCED NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL ALSO
SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS LIKELY
THROUGH MON MORNING.

GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AS FAR SW AS 04N82W ON EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PANAMA.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE DISCONTINUED SAT MORNING
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF
15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 06/1800 UTC IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND BECAME STATIONARY FROM 19N93W
TO 24N88W TO 27N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO KENTUCKY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF MAINLY N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY
SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC THROUGH THE W TROPICAL
ATLANTIC REACHING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
13N71W TO E COSTA RICA NEAR 14N84W. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLANTIC AS OF 06/1800 UTC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO 28N78W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS TO 31N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N35W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW S OF THE SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N42W TO 20N43W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN
40W-45W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE DISCONTINUED SAT MORNING
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF
15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 06/1800 UTC IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND BECAME STATIONARY FROM 19N93W
TO 24N88W TO 27N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO KENTUCKY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF MAINLY N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY
SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC THROUGH THE W TROPICAL
ATLANTIC REACHING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
13N71W TO E COSTA RICA NEAR 14N84W. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLANTIC AS OF 06/1800 UTC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO 28N78W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS TO 31N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N35W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW S OF THE SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N42W TO 20N43W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN
40W-45W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE DISCONTINUED SAT MORNING
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF
15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 06/1800 UTC IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND BECAME STATIONARY FROM 19N93W
TO 24N88W TO 27N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO KENTUCKY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF MAINLY N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY
SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC THROUGH THE W TROPICAL
ATLANTIC REACHING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
13N71W TO E COSTA RICA NEAR 14N84W. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLANTIC AS OF 06/1800 UTC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO 28N78W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS TO 31N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N35W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW S OF THE SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N42W TO 20N43W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN
40W-45W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE DISCONTINUED SAT MORNING
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF
15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 06/1800 UTC IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND BECAME STATIONARY FROM 19N93W
TO 24N88W TO 27N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO KENTUCKY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF MAINLY N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY
SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC THROUGH THE W TROPICAL
ATLANTIC REACHING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
13N71W TO E COSTA RICA NEAR 14N84W. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLANTIC AS OF 06/1800 UTC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO 28N78W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS TO 31N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N35W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW S OF THE SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N42W TO 20N43W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN
40W-45W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG N-NE 30-45 KT GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 12-20 FT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL 40-50 KT STORM FORCE EVENT
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 22-23
FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT MORNING
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE AROUND
1800 UTC...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SUN
MORNING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ON TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON
WED EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 02N98W TO 04N104W THEN RESUMES
AT 04N108W TO 02N125W TO BEYOND 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
N OF AREA NEAR 40N127W TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE
RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING NE
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL
WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN
110-120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND
SWELL.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT.
THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR 30N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE
N OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO 6 FT IN THE OPEN LONG FETCH WATERS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA...NE 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AND SPREAD AS FAR SW AS 09N93W.
THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY ON MON...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.

GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AS FAR SW AS 04N82W ON EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PANAMA.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG N-NE 30-45 KT GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 12-20 FT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL 40-50 KT STORM FORCE EVENT
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 22-23
FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT MORNING
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE AROUND
1800 UTC...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SUN
MORNING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ON TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON
WED EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 02N98W TO 04N104W THEN RESUMES
AT 04N108W TO 02N125W TO BEYOND 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
N OF AREA NEAR 40N127W TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE
RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING NE
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL
WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN
110-120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND
SWELL.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT.
THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR 30N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE
N OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO 6 FT IN THE OPEN LONG FETCH WATERS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA...NE 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AND SPREAD AS FAR SW AS 09N93W.
THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY ON MON...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.

GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AS FAR SW AS 04N82W ON EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PANAMA.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG N-NE 30-45 KT GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 12-20 FT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL 40-50 KT STORM FORCE EVENT
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 22-23
FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT MORNING
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE AROUND
1800 UTC...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SUN
MORNING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ON TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON
WED EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 02N98W TO 04N104W THEN RESUMES
AT 04N108W TO 02N125W TO BEYOND 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
N OF AREA NEAR 40N127W TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE
RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING NE
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL
WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN
110-120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND
SWELL.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT.
THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR 30N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE
N OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO 6 FT IN THE OPEN LONG FETCH WATERS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA...NE 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AND SPREAD AS FAR SW AS 09N93W.
THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY ON MON...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.

GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AS FAR SW AS 04N82W ON EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PANAMA.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG N-NE 30-45 KT GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 12-20 FT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL 40-50 KT STORM FORCE EVENT
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 22-23
FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT MORNING
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE AROUND
1800 UTC...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SUN
MORNING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ON TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON
WED EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 02N98W TO 04N104W THEN RESUMES
AT 04N108W TO 02N125W TO BEYOND 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
N OF AREA NEAR 40N127W TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE
RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING NE
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL
WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN
110-120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND
SWELL.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT.
THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR 30N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE
N OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO 6 FT IN THE OPEN LONG FETCH WATERS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA...NE 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AND SPREAD AS FAR SW AS 09N93W.
THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY ON MON...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.

GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AS FAR SW AS 04N82W ON EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PANAMA.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061524
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG N-NE 30-45 KT GALE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT AT SUNRISE
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL 40-50 KT
STORM EVENT THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM OF
ABOUT 26 KT NEAR 13.5N96W LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BEGIN TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING
TO A STRONG GALE AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE
CONDTIONS EXPECTED AT SUNRISE ON SUN...AND BELOW GALE FORCE
WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON WED EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON
THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
FROM 06N77W TO 02N81W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N85W AND CONTINUES W TO AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AT 05N104W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES SW FROM THE TROUGH TO
03N115W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N130W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.
OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS IS
OBSERVED S OF 06N E OF 84W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
OBSERVED S OF 07N BETWEEN 100-110W ALONG THE ITCZ AND THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
HAVE BEEN FLARING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF
07N126W...AND ALSO WELL N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 11N120W.

SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND BUOYS INDICATE A SECOND ITCZ ALONG A LINE
FROM 06S90W TO 06S95W TO 03.4S110W TO 03.4S120W TO BEYOND
04S140W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N144W TO A
CREST AT 33N129W. TO THE W OF THIS RIDGE IS A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH NOTED W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ROUGHLY TO THE N OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE IS AN UPPER CYCLONE AT
30N117W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO A BASE AT 12N114W.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N94W. DENSE
DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
11N145W...IS ADVECTED E INTO THE DISCUSSION UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY ROTATE CYCLONICALLY NE THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE
TROPICS E OF 113W AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 15N105W. THE TRADES SW
OF THE RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN
MIXING NE TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD S AND NW SWELL. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A
STORM EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO
THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE
WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE
TRADE WIND SWELL.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE
N OF 28N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO 6 FT IN THE OPEN LONG FETCH WATERS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...NE 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AND SPREAD AS FAR SW AS 09N93W.
THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY ON MON...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD
AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT...AND AS FAR SW AS 03.5N82.5W ON SAT
NIGHT WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PANAMA.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061524
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG N-NE 30-45 KT GALE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT AT SUNRISE
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL 40-50 KT
STORM EVENT THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM OF
ABOUT 26 KT NEAR 13.5N96W LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BEGIN TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING
TO A STRONG GALE AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE
CONDTIONS EXPECTED AT SUNRISE ON SUN...AND BELOW GALE FORCE
WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON WED EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON
THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
FROM 06N77W TO 02N81W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N85W AND CONTINUES W TO AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AT 05N104W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES SW FROM THE TROUGH TO
03N115W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N130W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.
OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS IS
OBSERVED S OF 06N E OF 84W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
OBSERVED S OF 07N BETWEEN 100-110W ALONG THE ITCZ AND THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
HAVE BEEN FLARING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF
07N126W...AND ALSO WELL N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 11N120W.

SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND BUOYS INDICATE A SECOND ITCZ ALONG A LINE
FROM 06S90W TO 06S95W TO 03.4S110W TO 03.4S120W TO BEYOND
04S140W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N144W TO A
CREST AT 33N129W. TO THE W OF THIS RIDGE IS A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH NOTED W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ROUGHLY TO THE N OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE IS AN UPPER CYCLONE AT
30N117W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO A BASE AT 12N114W.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N94W. DENSE
DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
11N145W...IS ADVECTED E INTO THE DISCUSSION UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY ROTATE CYCLONICALLY NE THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE
TROPICS E OF 113W AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 15N105W. THE TRADES SW
OF THE RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN
MIXING NE TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD S AND NW SWELL. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A
STORM EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO
THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE
WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE
TRADE WIND SWELL.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE
N OF 28N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO 6 FT IN THE OPEN LONG FETCH WATERS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...NE 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AND SPREAD AS FAR SW AS 09N93W.
THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY ON MON...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD
AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT...AND AS FAR SW AS 03.5N82.5W ON SAT
NIGHT WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PANAMA.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 20N W
OF 94.5W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N83W TO
23N92W TO 18N93W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF
94W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY 1200 UTC
TODAY. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11
AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N07W TO 03N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N20W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 260
NM S OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 170 NM N OF IT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND THE
EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. ACCORDING TO THIS GOES-13 PRODUCT...FOG
EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST.
THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL START TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SW TO 30N77W TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 23N
BETWEEN 25W AND 43W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 20N W
OF 94.5W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N83W TO
23N92W TO 18N93W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF
94W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY 1200 UTC
TODAY. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11
AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N07W TO 03N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N20W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 260
NM S OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 170 NM N OF IT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND THE
EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. ACCORDING TO THIS GOES-13 PRODUCT...FOG
EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST.
THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL START TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SW TO 30N77W TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 23N
BETWEEN 25W AND 43W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 20N W
OF 94.5W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N83W TO
23N92W TO 18N93W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF
94W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY 1200 UTC
TODAY. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11
AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N07W TO 03N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N20W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 260
NM S OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 170 NM N OF IT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND THE
EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. ACCORDING TO THIS GOES-13 PRODUCT...FOG
EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST.
THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL START TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SW TO 30N77W TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 23N
BETWEEN 25W AND 43W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 20N W
OF 94.5W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N83W TO
23N92W TO 18N93W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF
94W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY 1200 UTC
TODAY. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11
AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N07W TO 03N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N20W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 260
NM S OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 170 NM N OF IT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND THE
EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. ACCORDING TO THIS GOES-13 PRODUCT...FOG
EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST.
THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL START TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SW TO 30N77W TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 23N
BETWEEN 25W AND 43W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061000
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-45 KT WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT WILL
INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 15-25 FT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS S ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT.
THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BACK TO STRONG
GALE FORCE FORCE OF 30-45 KT BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE 18-26 FT RANGE.
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO AROUND 12-
18 FT BY THEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N126W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ
IS ANALYZED ON THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 01N90W TO S OF
THE EQUATOR AT 104W...AND TO 01S117W TO 03S128W TO 02S140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N124W TO 24N118W TO 18N113W.
HIGH PRES COVERS THE N AREA N OF 19N W OF 112W. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 118W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA
HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT THE TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TODAY S HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES
OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY
AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT STARTS. AS STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND
DOWNWIND TO 93W BY EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA.

NE TO E SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND
EVENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
COVERING ROUGHLY THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W
AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PULSES OF FEW SHORT-
LIVED BURSTS OF 20 KT WINDS FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF
20-25 KT WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH JUST
INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST ADJACENT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BECOMES
LESS DISCERNIBLE...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT
TO SLACKEN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8
FT N OF 27N BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THEN
8 FT BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061000
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-45 KT WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT WILL
INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 15-25 FT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS S ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT.
THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BACK TO STRONG
GALE FORCE FORCE OF 30-45 KT BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE 18-26 FT RANGE.
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO AROUND 12-
18 FT BY THEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N126W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ
IS ANALYZED ON THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 01N90W TO S OF
THE EQUATOR AT 104W...AND TO 01S117W TO 03S128W TO 02S140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N124W TO 24N118W TO 18N113W.
HIGH PRES COVERS THE N AREA N OF 19N W OF 112W. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 118W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA
HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT THE TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TODAY S HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES
OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY
AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT STARTS. AS STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND
DOWNWIND TO 93W BY EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA.

NE TO E SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND
EVENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
COVERING ROUGHLY THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W
AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PULSES OF FEW SHORT-
LIVED BURSTS OF 20 KT WINDS FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF
20-25 KT WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH JUST
INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST ADJACENT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BECOMES
LESS DISCERNIBLE...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT
TO SLACKEN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8
FT N OF 27N BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THEN
8 FT BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF
94W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N83W TO 24N93W
TO 18N94W. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N11W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S20W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN WILL START TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADE WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
TROUGHINESS ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 21W AND
42W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF
94W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N83W TO 24N93W
TO 18N94W. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N11W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S20W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN WILL START TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADE WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
TROUGHINESS ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 21W AND
42W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF
94W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N83W TO 24N93W
TO 18N94W. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N11W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S20W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN WILL START TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADE WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
TROUGHINESS ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 21W AND
42W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF
94W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N83W TO 24N93W
TO 18N94W. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N11W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S20W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN WILL START TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADE WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
TROUGHINESS ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 21W AND
42W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060327
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS
IN THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
REACH GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
FORECAST TO PERSIST TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT MORNING.
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI
MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-22 FT BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N125W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ
IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BASIN. THIS RATHER SPECIAL FEATURE IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC
MAP ALONG 01S102W TO BEYOND 03S120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 37N126W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 20N108W. ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W
WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT
THE TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA MOVES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR
30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES
OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY
AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT STARTS. AS STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND
DOWNWIND TO 93W BY EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA.

NE TO E SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND
EVENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
COVERING ROUGHLY THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W
AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25
KNOT WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR
SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO
AROUND 8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE FRI.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060327
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS
IN THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
REACH GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
FORECAST TO PERSIST TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT MORNING.
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI
MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-22 FT BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N125W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ
IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BASIN. THIS RATHER SPECIAL FEATURE IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC
MAP ALONG 01S102W TO BEYOND 03S120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 37N126W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 20N108W. ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W
WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT
THE TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA MOVES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR
30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES
OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY
AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT STARTS. AS STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND
DOWNWIND TO 93W BY EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA.

NE TO E SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND
EVENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
COVERING ROUGHLY THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W
AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25
KNOT WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR
SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO
AROUND 8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE FRI.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 052330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1800
UTC SAT MAR 07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N
AND W OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N86W TO 26N92W TO 19N96W.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1200 UTC SAT MAR
07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 4N8W TO 2N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N18W TO 2S24W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 22W-
27W...AND FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT 33N100W. AS OF
2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT
30N84W TO THE W GULF AT 24N94W TO THE THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE
IS S OF 26N AND W OF COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS W OF FRONT WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST W OF FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW
WITH A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE DOTS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 78W.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND FLORIDA. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 37W-48W. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N42W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 34N21W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A WESTERN ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N76W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1800
UTC SAT MAR 07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N
AND W OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N86W TO 26N92W TO 19N96W.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1200 UTC SAT MAR
07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 4N8W TO 2N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N18W TO 2S24W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 22W-
27W...AND FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT 33N100W. AS OF
2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT
30N84W TO THE W GULF AT 24N94W TO THE THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE
IS S OF 26N AND W OF COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS W OF FRONT WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST W OF FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW
WITH A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE DOTS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 78W.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND FLORIDA. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 37W-48W. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N42W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 34N21W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A WESTERN ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N76W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1800
UTC SAT MAR 07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N
AND W OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N86W TO 26N92W TO 19N96W.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1200 UTC SAT MAR
07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 4N8W TO 2N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N18W TO 2S24W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 22W-
27W...AND FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT 33N100W. AS OF
2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT
30N84W TO THE W GULF AT 24N94W TO THE THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE
IS S OF 26N AND W OF COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS W OF FRONT WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST W OF FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW
WITH A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE DOTS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 78W.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND FLORIDA. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 37W-48W. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N42W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 34N21W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A WESTERN ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N76W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1800
UTC SAT MAR 07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N
AND W OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N86W TO 26N92W TO 19N96W.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1200 UTC SAT MAR
07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 4N8W TO 2N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N18W TO 2S24W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 22W-
27W...AND FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT 33N100W. AS OF
2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT
30N84W TO THE W GULF AT 24N94W TO THE THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE
IS S OF 26N AND W OF COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS W OF FRONT WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST W OF FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW
WITH A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE DOTS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 78W.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND FLORIDA. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 37W-48W. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N42W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 34N21W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A WESTERN ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N76W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE BY
TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT FORECAST TO PERSIST
TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM
INTENSITY FRI NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19
FT FRI MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT BY LATE FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 09N125W TO 10N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA
HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT TRADES
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES
AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND EVENT STARTS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT
STARTS. WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND
110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25
KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR
SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR
8 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE BY
TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT FORECAST TO PERSIST
TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM
INTENSITY FRI NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19
FT FRI MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT BY LATE FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 09N125W TO 10N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA
HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT TRADES
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES
AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND EVENT STARTS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT
STARTS. WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND
110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25
KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR
SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR
8 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE BY
TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT FORECAST TO PERSIST
TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM
INTENSITY FRI NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19
FT FRI MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT BY LATE FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 09N125W TO 10N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA
HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT TRADES
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES
AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND EVENT STARTS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT
STARTS. WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND
110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25
KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR
SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR
8 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE BY
TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT FORECAST TO PERSIST
TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM
INTENSITY FRI NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19
FT FRI MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT BY LATE FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 09N125W TO 10N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA
HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT TRADES
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES
AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND EVENT STARTS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT
STARTS. WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND
110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25
KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR
SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR
8 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 051740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW
GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL RESUME LATER THIS
EVENING AND WILL PULSE OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF W OF A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 05/1200 UTC EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH SAT
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W ALONG 4N15W TO 2N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-
47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 05/1500 UTC
ENTERS THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG 26N93W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH DENSE LOW TO
MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE GULF W OF
THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING
FROM 22N96W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE
E GULF TO 90W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES SE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER
THE SE GULF LATE FRI AND DISSIPATING SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC THROUGH
THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR COSTA RICA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO GIVE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH THE WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THESE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N E OF 79W AND S OF 17N
W OF 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC ALONG 32N36W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N42W
CONTINUING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N51W THEN ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC BASIN THAT IS SPLIT N OF 32N BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
33N51W AND A 1031 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 34N31W. THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO/W ATLC THROUGH SAT WHILE THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FRONT SHIFTS E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI MORNING...
AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 31N121W TO 14N119W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 04N101W TO 02N109W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 10N115W ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N118W TO
09N117W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT STARTS.
WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM
AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS THROUGH SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI MORNING...
AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 31N121W TO 14N119W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 04N101W TO 02N109W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 10N115W ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N118W TO
09N117W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT STARTS.
WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM
AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS THROUGH SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI MORNING...
AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 31N121W TO 14N119W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 04N101W TO 02N109W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 10N115W ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N118W TO
09N117W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT STARTS.
WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM
AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS THROUGH SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI MORNING...
AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 31N121W TO 14N119W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 04N101W TO 02N109W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 10N115W ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N118W TO
09N117W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT STARTS.
WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM
AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS THROUGH SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 051153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10
AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST THIS
MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 04N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 30W THEN TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN
BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06S BETWEEN 12W AND 34W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 06N W OF 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N CONTINUES
TO EXTEND AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN
BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT CAME OFF THE LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS COASTS THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
29N92W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS W OF
THE BOUNDARY. SE TO S WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS ELSEWHERE E OF
THE COLD FRONT. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC WATERS. OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE E OF THE FRONT FAVOR FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES DOMINATE. OVER THE NW GULF...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING REPORTED N
OF 25N W OF 90W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COINCIDING WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT AND WILL START DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW
TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FRONT
ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 30N41W SW TO 26N49W.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
ATLC W AND E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N
ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY EVENING WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS...GALE
FORCE BY 06/0600 UTC ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL
RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS...STORM FORCE BY 07/06OO UTC...EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE BEING FORECAST TO REACH TO
AT LEAST 19 FEET. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALSO AFTER THE STORM EVENT. THE GALE-FORCE
WIND EVENT STARTS FIRST, EARLY ON FRIDAY. THE STORM-FORCE WIND
EVENT STARTS 24 HOURS AFTER THE GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS.

A ROUND OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA
AT THE SAME TIME MORE OR LESS AS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-
FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS. THE WIND AND SWELL FROM EACH EVENT IN
EACH GULF AREA EVENTUALLY CAUSES THE WINDS AND SEAS FROM THOSE
EVENTS TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND TO MERGE IN THE AREA GENERALLY
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED ROUNDS
OF 20 KNOT WINDS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. A BURST OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 7 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BEGINS
AROUND 54 HOURS. MORE PULSING OF AT LEAST 20 KNOT WINDS
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE 72-HOUR TIME OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 08N122W TO 07N124W BEYOND 08N140W.05N96W TO 03N104W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N120W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N124W AND 09N124W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 130W EASTWARD.
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM
130W WESTWARD.

ONE BRANCH OF A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N135W BEYOND
22N146W. A SECOND BRANCH OF A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N131W TO
22N119W TO 13N104W.

AN EAST-TO-WEST SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 04N95W...TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N98W...TO 03N105W AND
03N108W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
95W AND 105W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT GOES FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 109W.

A NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N115W 09N116W
05N117W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 115W AND 116W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 05/038 UTC SHOW FRESH-TO-STRONG WINDS
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 118W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 126W AND 132W. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
AREA AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM 10N TO 17N FROM 116W
WESTWARD AT 24 HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 8 TO 9 FOOT
RANGE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS FOR 48 HOURS.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY EVENING WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS...GALE
FORCE BY 06/0600 UTC ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL
RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS...STORM FORCE BY 07/06OO UTC...EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE BEING FORECAST TO REACH TO
AT LEAST 19 FEET. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALSO AFTER THE STORM EVENT. THE GALE-FORCE
WIND EVENT STARTS FIRST, EARLY ON FRIDAY. THE STORM-FORCE WIND
EVENT STARTS 24 HOURS AFTER THE GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS.

A ROUND OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA
AT THE SAME TIME MORE OR LESS AS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-
FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS. THE WIND AND SWELL FROM EACH EVENT IN
EACH GULF AREA EVENTUALLY CAUSES THE WINDS AND SEAS FROM THOSE
EVENTS TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND TO MERGE IN THE AREA GENERALLY
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED ROUNDS
OF 20 KNOT WINDS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. A BURST OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 7 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BEGINS
AROUND 54 HOURS. MORE PULSING OF AT LEAST 20 KNOT WINDS
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE 72-HOUR TIME OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 08N122W TO 07N124W BEYOND 08N140W.05N96W TO 03N104W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N120W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N124W AND 09N124W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 130W EASTWARD.
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM
130W WESTWARD.

ONE BRANCH OF A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N135W BEYOND
22N146W. A SECOND BRANCH OF A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N131W TO
22N119W TO 13N104W.

AN EAST-TO-WEST SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 04N95W...TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N98W...TO 03N105W AND
03N108W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
95W AND 105W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT GOES FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 109W.

A NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N115W 09N116W
05N117W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 115W AND 116W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 05/038 UTC SHOW FRESH-TO-STRONG WINDS
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 118W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 126W AND 132W. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
AREA AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM 10N TO 17N FROM 116W
WESTWARD AT 24 HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 8 TO 9 FOOT
RANGE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS FOR 48 HOURS.

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO START DURING THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS WEST OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
COAST. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07S
BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W
CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDES WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
S OF 27N. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING
REPORTED N OF 27N W OF 92W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES AS WELL AS
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY GENERATING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W SW TO 26N51W WHERE
IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE N OF 30N LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER ATLC
W AND E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N49W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 050600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO START DURING THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS WEST OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
COAST. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07S
BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W
CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDES WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
S OF 27N. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING
REPORTED N OF 27N W OF 92W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES AS WELL AS
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY GENERATING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W SW TO 26N51W WHERE
IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE N OF 30N LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER ATLC
W AND E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N49W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO START DURING THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS WEST OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
COAST. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07S
BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W
CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDES WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
S OF 27N. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING
REPORTED N OF 27N W OF 92W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES AS WELL AS
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY GENERATING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W SW TO 26N51W WHERE
IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE N OF 30N LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER ATLC
W AND E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N49W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 050600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO START DURING THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS WEST OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
COAST. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07S
BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W
CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDES WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
S OF 27N. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING
REPORTED N OF 27N W OF 92W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES AS WELL AS
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY GENERATING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W SW TO 26N51W WHERE
IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE N OF 30N LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER ATLC
W AND E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N49W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THU EVENING WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT
THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 KT...GALE FORCE BY
0600 UTC FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TO 50 KT...STORM FORCE BY FRI
EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 TO 20 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH SEAS
TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST
PACIFIC N OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BY SUN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH
THE AXIS OF THE ITCZ NOTED FROM 02N83W TO 05N96W TO 03N104W. THE
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W AND1 40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED ALONG THE PORTION OF THE ITCZ N OF THE EQUATOR.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE TROUGH
AND FOCUSED IN AN AREA FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES  EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH NOTED EARLIER FROM 22N106W TO 13N118W HAS
DISSIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDS
SE.

A 1920 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH
TRADES FROM 11N TO 14N W OF 125W. EXPECT THE TRADES TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA SHIFTS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

PULSING GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA E OF 95W...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THU. STEADIER GAP
WINDS ARE FORECAST BY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW
MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL PEAK AT
30 KT LOCALLY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THU EVENING WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT
THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 KT...GALE FORCE BY
0600 UTC FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TO 50 KT...STORM FORCE BY FRI
EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 TO 20 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH SEAS
TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST
PACIFIC N OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BY SUN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH
THE AXIS OF THE ITCZ NOTED FROM 02N83W TO 05N96W TO 03N104W. THE
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W AND1 40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED ALONG THE PORTION OF THE ITCZ N OF THE EQUATOR.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE TROUGH
AND FOCUSED IN AN AREA FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES  EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH NOTED EARLIER FROM 22N106W TO 13N118W HAS
DISSIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDS
SE.

A 1920 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH
TRADES FROM 11N TO 14N W OF 125W. EXPECT THE TRADES TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA SHIFTS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

PULSING GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA E OF 95W...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THU. STEADIER GAP
WINDS ARE FORECAST BY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW
MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL PEAK AT
30 KT LOCALLY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

$$
COBB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW
GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
1800 UTC FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S
BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW
GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
1800 UTC FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S
BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW
GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
1800 UTC FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S
BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW
GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
1800 UTC FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S
BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT THU. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE....POSSIBLY
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT FRI MORNING ...AND REACH A PEAK
AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W
AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THIS TROUGH IS
PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N106W TO
13N118W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW
MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING LOCALLY TO 8 FT.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT THU. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE....POSSIBLY
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT FRI MORNING ...AND REACH A PEAK
AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W
AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THIS TROUGH IS
PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N106W TO
13N118W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW
MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING LOCALLY TO 8 FT.

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9
TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RESUMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE GULF...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PREVAILING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT.
WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING THE WESTERN
GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
GULF...KEEPING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE BASIN. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE
SURFACE...AND WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS ALSO...THE
BASIN CONTINUES UNDER BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
ENTERING THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
FLOW IS W OF 80W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA N OF COLOMBIA...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 40W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS. THE
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT FROM
31N44W TO 27N54W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES
WEAK...EXTENDING TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A
1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N12W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9
TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RESUMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE GULF...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PREVAILING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT.
WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING THE WESTERN
GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
GULF...KEEPING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE BASIN. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE
SURFACE...AND WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS ALSO...THE
BASIN CONTINUES UNDER BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
ENTERING THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
FLOW IS W OF 80W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA N OF COLOMBIA...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 40W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS. THE
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT FROM
31N44W TO 27N54W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES
WEAK...EXTENDING TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A
1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N12W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9
TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RESUMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE GULF...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PREVAILING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT.
WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING THE WESTERN
GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
GULF...KEEPING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE BASIN. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE
SURFACE...AND WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS ALSO...THE
BASIN CONTINUES UNDER BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
ENTERING THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
FLOW IS W OF 80W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA N OF COLOMBIA...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 40W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS. THE
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT FROM
31N44W TO 27N54W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES
WEAK...EXTENDING TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A
1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N12W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9
TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RESUMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE GULF...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PREVAILING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT.
WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING THE WESTERN
GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
GULF...KEEPING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE BASIN. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE
SURFACE...AND WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS ALSO...THE
BASIN CONTINUES UNDER BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
ENTERING THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
FLOW IS W OF 80W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA N OF COLOMBIA...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 40W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS. THE
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT FROM
31N44W TO 27N54W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES
WEAK...EXTENDING TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A
1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N12W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 4 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT EARLY FRI...AND
REACH A PEAK AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 15N111W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W
AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 15N121W. A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N109W TO 14N118W IS A REMNANT COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THU NIGHT IN NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 26N
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 4 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT EARLY FRI...AND
REACH A PEAK AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 15N111W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W
AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 15N121W. A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N109W TO 14N118W IS A REMNANT COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THU NIGHT IN NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 26N
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS...RANGING FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 06N108W TO 04N121W TO 07N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO
10N FROM 128W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N91W...TO 03N95W TO 04N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND
97W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 10N114W TO 06N115W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE
REMNANT OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 10N
TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THIS TRADEWIND FLOW AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THU.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BENIGN FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A COLD FRONT...
BURSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND FLOW WEAKENS IN SPEED DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MORE TO 20
KNOTS MORE DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO THAN IN THE GULF AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20 KNOT WINDS
RETURN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN EARLY THURSDAY BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS...RANGING FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 06N108W TO 04N121W TO 07N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO
10N FROM 128W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N91W...TO 03N95W TO 04N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND
97W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 10N114W TO 06N115W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE
REMNANT OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 10N
TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THIS TRADEWIND FLOW AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THU.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BENIGN FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A COLD FRONT...
BURSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND FLOW WEAKENS IN SPEED DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MORE TO 20
KNOTS MORE DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO THAN IN THE GULF AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20 KNOT WINDS
RETURN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN EARLY THURSDAY BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS...RANGING FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 06N108W TO 04N121W TO 07N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO
10N FROM 128W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N91W...TO 03N95W TO 04N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND
97W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 10N114W TO 06N115W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE
REMNANT OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 10N
TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THIS TRADEWIND FLOW AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THU.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BENIGN FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A COLD FRONT...
BURSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND FLOW WEAKENS IN SPEED DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MORE TO 20
KNOTS MORE DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO THAN IN THE GULF AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20 KNOT WINDS
RETURN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN EARLY THURSDAY BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS...RANGING FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 06N108W TO 04N121W TO 07N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO
10N FROM 128W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N91W...TO 03N95W TO 04N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND
97W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 10N114W TO 06N115W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE
REMNANT OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 10N
TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THIS TRADEWIND FLOW AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THU.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BENIGN FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A COLD FRONT...
BURSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND FLOW WEAKENS IN SPEED DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MORE TO 20
KNOTS MORE DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO THAN IN THE GULF AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20 KNOT WINDS
RETURN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN EARLY THURSDAY BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



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