Home > Products > National Data >
000
AXNT20 KNHC 021803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 11 TO 17 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING...ITS AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 18W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 07N TO 11N E OF 20W. METEOSAT
PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
36W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
THAT MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE...SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULF THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION
TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR
48W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. DRY AIR AND DUST ARE OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WHERE
MODERATE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W
...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 09N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N21W AND CONTINUES
TO 06N34W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N37W TO 06N50W TO
THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 06N57W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE THE RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N85W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE ALONG
COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN MEXICO THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 21N-25N W OF 96W. MODERATE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SE
CONUS...ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT...ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT
EXTEND WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND REGION FROM
CLEARWATER TO FORT MYERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE GULF
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY
SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 11 TO 17 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE BASIN ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES.
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EPAC WATERS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS HONDURAS TO EAST OF BELIZE.
MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 19N W OF 85W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...HOWEVER
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS
INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A SAHARAN AIRMASS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...THUS
SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY
AIRMASS IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 64W AND 83W. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED.
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE
TONGUE OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC
WATERS HAS ITS BASE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION...WHICH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N W OF 77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CENTRAL CUBA COASTAL WATERS BEING
ENHANCED BY MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS
BEING DOMINATED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 021803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 11 TO 17 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING...ITS AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 18W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 07N TO 11N E OF 20W. METEOSAT
PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
36W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
THAT MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE...SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULF THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION
TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR
48W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. DRY AIR AND DUST ARE OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WHERE
MODERATE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W
...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 09N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N21W AND CONTINUES
TO 06N34W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N37W TO 06N50W TO
THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 06N57W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE THE RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N85W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE ALONG
COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN MEXICO THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 21N-25N W OF 96W. MODERATE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SE
CONUS...ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT...ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT
EXTEND WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND REGION FROM
CLEARWATER TO FORT MYERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE GULF
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY
SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 11 TO 17 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE BASIN ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES.
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EPAC WATERS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS HONDURAS TO EAST OF BELIZE.
MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 19N W OF 85W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...HOWEVER
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS
INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A SAHARAN AIRMASS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...THUS
SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY
AIRMASS IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 64W AND 83W. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED.
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE
TONGUE OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC
WATERS HAS ITS BASE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION...WHICH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N W OF 77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CENTRAL CUBA COASTAL WATERS BEING
ENHANCED BY MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS
BEING DOMINATED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACPN50 PHFO 021740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

EVANS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 021740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

EVANS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021735
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located over the far
southwestern eastern Pacific centered about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level conditions are forecast to become
conducive for some development of this system early next week while
it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021728
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021728
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021728
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021728
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


000
ABNT20 KNHC 021727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 021727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 021727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 021727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021651
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
251 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TYPHOON...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.1N...LONGITUDE 148.3E. THIS WAS ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 75 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER THIS MORNING.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT ON
A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN-
HOM BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-030100-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
251 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021651
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
251 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TYPHOON...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.1N...LONGITUDE 148.3E. THIS WAS ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 75 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER THIS MORNING.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT ON
A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN-
HOM BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-030100-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
251 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021651
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
251 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TYPHOON...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.1N...LONGITUDE 148.3E. THIS WAS ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 75 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER THIS MORNING.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT ON
A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN-
HOM BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-030100-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
251 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021612
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 90W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W-103W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

SERIES OF THREE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE
PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N87W TO 05N98W TO 09N126W TO 10N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N138.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 06.5N E OF 79W TO COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND
102W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS DEVELOPING ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 160W. STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS A SHORT
WAVE IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH...AND
REDUCING THE UPPER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD ZONE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. THIS IS ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N124W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD N AND NE THROUGH SAT AS A TUTT
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 13N106W. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ACROSS THIS
AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SLOW AND
GRADUAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF ANY OF THESE LOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

THE STRONG NE PACIFIC EXTENDING S INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS CENTERED ON A 1015 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N122W AND EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N111W. A MODEST PRES
GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF
17N AND W OF 110W...WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 130W. SEAS ACROSS
THIS REGION ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT W OF
130W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURN TO THE AREA E OF 110W
WITH THE PASSAGE OF RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...AND EXTEND N TO 15N
OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST.

GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALSO PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT
AT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WERE 20-25 KT THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED W
TO 90W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021612
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 90W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W-103W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

SERIES OF THREE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE
PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N87W TO 05N98W TO 09N126W TO 10N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N138.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 06.5N E OF 79W TO COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND
102W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS DEVELOPING ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 160W. STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS A SHORT
WAVE IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH...AND
REDUCING THE UPPER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD ZONE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. THIS IS ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N124W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD N AND NE THROUGH SAT AS A TUTT
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 13N106W. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ACROSS THIS
AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SLOW AND
GRADUAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF ANY OF THESE LOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

THE STRONG NE PACIFIC EXTENDING S INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS CENTERED ON A 1015 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N122W AND EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N111W. A MODEST PRES
GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF
17N AND W OF 110W...WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 130W. SEAS ACROSS
THIS REGION ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT W OF
130W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURN TO THE AREA E OF 110W
WITH THE PASSAGE OF RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...AND EXTEND N TO 15N
OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST.

GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALSO PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT
AT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WERE 20-25 KT THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED W
TO 90W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021612
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 90W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W-103W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

SERIES OF THREE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE
PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N87W TO 05N98W TO 09N126W TO 10N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N138.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 06.5N E OF 79W TO COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND
102W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS DEVELOPING ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 160W. STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS A SHORT
WAVE IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH...AND
REDUCING THE UPPER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD ZONE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. THIS IS ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N124W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD N AND NE THROUGH SAT AS A TUTT
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 13N106W. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ACROSS THIS
AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SLOW AND
GRADUAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF ANY OF THESE LOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

THE STRONG NE PACIFIC EXTENDING S INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS CENTERED ON A 1015 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N122W AND EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N111W. A MODEST PRES
GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF
17N AND W OF 110W...WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 130W. SEAS ACROSS
THIS REGION ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT W OF
130W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURN TO THE AREA E OF 110W
WITH THE PASSAGE OF RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...AND EXTEND N TO 15N
OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST.

GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALSO PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT
AT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WERE 20-25 KT THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED W
TO 90W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021612
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 90W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W-103W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

SERIES OF THREE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE
PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N87W TO 05N98W TO 09N126W TO 10N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N138.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 06.5N E OF 79W TO COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND
102W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS DEVELOPING ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 160W. STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS A SHORT
WAVE IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH...AND
REDUCING THE UPPER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD ZONE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. THIS IS ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N124W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD N AND NE THROUGH SAT AS A TUTT
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 13N106W. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ACROSS THIS
AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SLOW AND
GRADUAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF ANY OF THESE LOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

THE STRONG NE PACIFIC EXTENDING S INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS CENTERED ON A 1015 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N122W AND EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N111W. A MODEST PRES
GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF
17N AND W OF 110W...WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 130W. SEAS ACROSS
THIS REGION ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT W OF
130W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURN TO THE AREA E OF 110W
WITH THE PASSAGE OF RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...AND EXTEND N TO 15N
OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST.

GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALSO PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT
AT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WERE 20-25 KT THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED W
TO 90W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021443
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 148.3E

ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...250 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.3 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATER THIS MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021443
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 148.3E

ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...250 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.3 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATER THIS MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021254
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE... ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 148.9E

ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.9 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021254
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE... ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 148.9E

ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.9 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
ACPN50 PHFO 021155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL








000
ACPN50 PHFO 021155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL







000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1700 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1700 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1700 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1700 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021140
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021140
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 021137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 021137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021122
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM (09W) CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3
THE CNMI IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 150.0E...OR ABOUT
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA AND 420 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN- HOM
IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A
TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN- HOM
BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-022030-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021122
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM (09W) CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3
THE CNMI IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 150.0E...OR ABOUT
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA AND 420 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN- HOM
IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A
TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN- HOM
BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-022030-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021122
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM (09W) CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3
THE CNMI IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 150.0E...OR ABOUT
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA AND 420 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN- HOM
IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A
TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN- HOM
BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-022030-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021122
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM (09W) CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3
THE CNMI IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 150.0E...OR ABOUT
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA AND 420 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN- HOM
IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A
TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN- HOM
BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-022030-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021122
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM (09W) CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3
THE CNMI IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 150.0E...OR ABOUT
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA AND 420 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN- HOM
IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A
TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN- HOM
BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-022030-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021122
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM (09W) CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3
THE CNMI IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 150.0E...OR ABOUT
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA AND 420 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN- HOM
IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A
TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN- HOM
BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-022030-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021122
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM (09W) CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3
THE CNMI IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 150.0E...OR ABOUT
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA AND 420 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN- HOM
IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A
TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN- HOM
BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-022030-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021122
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM (09W) CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3
THE CNMI IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 150.0E...OR ABOUT
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA AND 420 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN- HOM
IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A
TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN- HOM
BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-022030-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021122
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM (09W) CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3
THE CNMI IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 150.0E...OR ABOUT
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA AND 420 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN- HOM
IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A
TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN- HOM
BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-022030-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021122
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM (09W) CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3
THE CNMI IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 150.0E...OR ABOUT
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA AND 420 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN- HOM
IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A
TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH CHAN- HOM
BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND ROTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-022030-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
922 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 23 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...FLASH FLOODING... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 021111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE
FORECAST FOR 02/0600 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W...IN THE ITCZ. THE
WAVE IS APPARENT IN A LONG-TERM OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF
THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM
13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
8N25W 8N34W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD AN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT
REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA.
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND
CUBA...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
IN THE AREA OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N20W...TO 31N28W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...THROUGH 30N66W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE
FORECAST FOR 02/0600 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W...IN THE ITCZ. THE
WAVE IS APPARENT IN A LONG-TERM OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF
THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM
13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
8N25W 8N34W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD AN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT
REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA.
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND
CUBA...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
IN THE AREA OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N20W...TO 31N28W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...THROUGH 30N66W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE
FORECAST FOR 02/0600 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W...IN THE ITCZ. THE
WAVE IS APPARENT IN A LONG-TERM OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF
THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM
13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
8N25W 8N34W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD AN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT
REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA.
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND
CUBA...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
IN THE AREA OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N20W...TO 31N28W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...THROUGH 30N66W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 021111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE
FORECAST FOR 02/0600 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W...IN THE ITCZ. THE
WAVE IS APPARENT IN A LONG-TERM OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF
THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM
13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
8N25W 8N34W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD AN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT
REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA.
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND
CUBA...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
IN THE AREA OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N20W...TO 31N28W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...THROUGH 30N66W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.0E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.0E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.0E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 9N ALONG 87W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N TO 15N ALONG 100W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N TO 16N ALONG 110W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N TO 14N ALONG 130W/131W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 7N86W TO 5N105W TO 7N110W TO 8N130 9N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 116W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N137W
TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N128W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-125W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND 10N120W. DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 116W-140W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
16N W OF 110W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 10N-16N W OF
125W. OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 8
FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASE TO 20
KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT FRI NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 9N ALONG 87W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N TO 15N ALONG 100W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N TO 16N ALONG 110W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N TO 14N ALONG 130W/131W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 7N86W TO 5N105W TO 7N110W TO 8N130 9N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 116W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N137W
TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N128W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-125W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND 10N120W. DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 116W-140W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
16N W OF 110W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 10N-16N W OF
125W. OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 8
FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASE TO 20
KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT FRI NIGHT.

$$
DGS



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020655
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.5E

ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020655
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.5E

ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 020559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 30 HOURS...BASED ON THE
FORECAST FOR 02/0000 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND
38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 9N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD
20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE
FROM 13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN
ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING
THROUGH HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 20N13W TO 16N20W AND 9N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N34W
TO 8N44W...INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME...EVENTUALLY TO 5N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 11W AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE BASE OF
A TROUGH ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT REACHES ITS BASE NEAR
13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EARLIER
RAINSHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N91W 20N92W 18N92W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N86W...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EVERYWHERE...
EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA.
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT 84W/85W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND CUBA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING INLAND IN HISPANIOLA HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 54W AND
77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N48W 28N52W 25N57W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N42W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 32W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N50W...THROUGH 32N59W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 020500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 020500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020335
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFYING NORTH OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 151.9E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020335
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFYING NORTH OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 151.9E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020335
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFYING NORTH OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 151.9E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020335
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFYING NORTH OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 151.9E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020335
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFYING NORTH OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 151.9E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 15N NEAR 106W/107W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 129W/130W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N95W TO 06N120W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W
AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
26N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS RELATED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO WEST AND SW SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL END QUICKLY AND NOT
RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF
THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND
135W STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI NEAR THE LOW PRES.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 15N NEAR 106W/107W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 129W/130W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N95W TO 06N120W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W
AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
26N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS RELATED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO WEST AND SW SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL END QUICKLY AND NOT
RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF
THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND
135W STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI NEAR THE LOW PRES.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 15N NEAR 106W/107W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 129W/130W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N95W TO 06N120W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W
AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
26N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS RELATED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO WEST AND SW SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL END QUICKLY AND NOT
RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF
THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND
135W STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI NEAR THE LOW PRES.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 15N NEAR 106W/107W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 129W/130W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N95W TO 06N120W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W
AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
26N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS RELATED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO WEST AND SW SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL END QUICKLY AND NOT
RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF
THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND
135W STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI NEAR THE LOW PRES.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 012357
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

AG






000
ACPN50 PHFO 012357
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

AG





000
AXNT20 KNHC 012355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
THEN PULSING AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 30W/31W FROM
5N-12N WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE
WAVE/LOW ARE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 45W FROM 5N-11N MOVING 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE 700 MB SIGNATURE AND
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-
44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 73W/74W
FROM HAITI TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THIS WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS HISPANIOLA. SEE
CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 83W S OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE HAS SPLIT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS S OF
18N. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 13N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N33W ALONG 10N38W TO E OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N44W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE
NEAR 7N47W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE CONUS WITH A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA
CITY TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NW GULF COAST BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
HAVANA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO
FORT MYERS E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE OVER CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 25N96W WITH DENSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N W OF 93W TO OVER MEXICO. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...NO CONVECTION
IS BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N TO A
POSITION FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TO 16N81W. THIS IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 20N W OF 81W TO OVER CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/W
TROPICAL ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA E OF 79W AND
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W
CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT WITH A
FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ARE BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN RETURN ON SAT
MORNING WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU AND RETURNING SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA AND NE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE IT CROSSES SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 29N75W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND
IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 71W-
77W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 24N70W AND IS
GENERATING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-71W. A
REMNANT DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W TO
28N19W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING
ALONG 25N25W 26N47W TO 29N55W. THE FRONT ABOVE IS WEAKENING AS
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N51W
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N61W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE
DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF
THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 012355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
THEN PULSING AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 30W/31W FROM
5N-12N WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE
WAVE/LOW ARE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 45W FROM 5N-11N MOVING 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE 700 MB SIGNATURE AND
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-
44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 73W/74W
FROM HAITI TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THIS WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS HISPANIOLA. SEE
CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 83W S OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE HAS SPLIT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS S OF
18N. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 13N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N33W ALONG 10N38W TO E OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N44W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE
NEAR 7N47W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE CONUS WITH A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA
CITY TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NW GULF COAST BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
HAVANA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO
FORT MYERS E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE OVER CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 25N96W WITH DENSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N W OF 93W TO OVER MEXICO. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...NO CONVECTION
IS BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N TO A
POSITION FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TO 16N81W. THIS IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 20N W OF 81W TO OVER CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/W
TROPICAL ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA E OF 79W AND
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W
CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT WITH A
FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ARE BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN RETURN ON SAT
MORNING WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU AND RETURNING SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA AND NE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE IT CROSSES SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 29N75W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND
IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 71W-
77W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 24N70W AND IS
GENERATING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-71W. A
REMNANT DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W TO
28N19W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING
ALONG 25N25W 26N47W TO 29N55W. THE FRONT ABOVE IS WEAKENING AS
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N51W
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N61W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE
DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF
THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
THEN PULSING AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 30W/31W FROM
5N-12N WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE
WAVE/LOW ARE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 45W FROM 5N-11N MOVING 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE 700 MB SIGNATURE AND
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-
44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 73W/74W
FROM HAITI TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THIS WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS HISPANIOLA. SEE
CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 83W S OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE HAS SPLIT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS S OF
18N. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 13N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N33W ALONG 10N38W TO E OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N44W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE
NEAR 7N47W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE CONUS WITH A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA
CITY TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NW GULF COAST BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
HAVANA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO
FORT MYERS E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE OVER CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 25N96W WITH DENSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N W OF 93W TO OVER MEXICO. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...NO CONVECTION
IS BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N TO A
POSITION FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TO 16N81W. THIS IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 20N W OF 81W TO OVER CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/W
TROPICAL ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA E OF 79W AND
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W
CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT WITH A
FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ARE BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN RETURN ON SAT
MORNING WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU AND RETURNING SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA AND NE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE IT CROSSES SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 29N75W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND
IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 71W-
77W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 24N70W AND IS
GENERATING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-71W. A
REMNANT DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W TO
28N19W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING
ALONG 25N25W 26N47W TO 29N55W. THE FRONT ABOVE IS WEAKENING AS
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N51W
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N61W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE
DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF
THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 012355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
THEN PULSING AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 30W/31W FROM
5N-12N WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE
WAVE/LOW ARE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 45W FROM 5N-11N MOVING 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE 700 MB SIGNATURE AND
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-
44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 73W/74W
FROM HAITI TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THIS WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS HISPANIOLA. SEE
CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 83W S OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE HAS SPLIT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS S OF
18N. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 13N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N33W ALONG 10N38W TO E OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N44W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE
NEAR 7N47W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE CONUS WITH A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA
CITY TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NW GULF COAST BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
HAVANA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO
FORT MYERS E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE OVER CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 25N96W WITH DENSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N W OF 93W TO OVER MEXICO. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...NO CONVECTION
IS BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N TO A
POSITION FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TO 16N81W. THIS IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 20N W OF 81W TO OVER CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/W
TROPICAL ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA E OF 79W AND
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W
CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT WITH A
FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ARE BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN RETURN ON SAT
MORNING WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU AND RETURNING SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA AND NE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE IT CROSSES SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 29N75W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND
IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 71W-
77W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 24N70W AND IS
GENERATING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-71W. A
REMNANT DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W TO
28N19W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING
ALONG 25N25W 26N47W TO 29N55W. THE FRONT ABOVE IS WEAKENING AS
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N51W
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N61W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE
DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF
THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012311
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012311
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012311
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012311
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012310
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012310
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012310
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012310
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ABNT20 KNHC 012309
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012309
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012309
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N TO 13N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. THIS ALONG
WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST ARE
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
END OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE WAVE
DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL IN SURFACE OR LOWER LEVEL DATA AND
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 09N TO 15N NEAR 105W/106W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 128W/129W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 05N105W TO 10N135W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
16N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM 11 UTC AND 13 UTC INDICATED SEAS OF
GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS
RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO CABO CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO
WEST AND SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL
END QUICKLY AND NOT RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST
ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER
IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W THROUGH LATE FRI...THE
LATEST GFS IS FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY CHANGES YET IN THIS AREA THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT THIS WILL BE REVIEWED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N TO 13N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. THIS ALONG
WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST ARE
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
END OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE WAVE
DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL IN SURFACE OR LOWER LEVEL DATA AND
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 09N TO 15N NEAR 105W/106W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 128W/129W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 05N105W TO 10N135W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
16N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM 11 UTC AND 13 UTC INDICATED SEAS OF
GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS
RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO CABO CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO
WEST AND SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL
END QUICKLY AND NOT RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST
ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER
IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W THROUGH LATE FRI...THE
LATEST GFS IS FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY CHANGES YET IN THIS AREA THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT THIS WILL BE REVIEWED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 012049
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 153.8E

ABOUT 420 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 285 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 615 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.8
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 012049
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 153.8E

ABOUT 420 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 285 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 615 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.8
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 05N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
70W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN WATERS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT HINDERS
CONVECTION...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 09N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W 06N50W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W AND FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH ALONG A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BASE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE ALONG
WITH MOIST AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
90W...INCLUDING NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...HOWEVER DEVOID OF CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N TO 21N
W OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BULGE OF MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SW N ATLC WATERS THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BEING SUPPORTED
BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
AND A RIDGE COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W
TO 26N40W TO 28N52W. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 05N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
70W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN WATERS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT HINDERS
CONVECTION...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 09N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W 06N50W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W AND FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH ALONG A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BASE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE ALONG
WITH MOIST AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
90W...INCLUDING NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...HOWEVER DEVOID OF CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N TO 21N
W OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BULGE OF MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SW N ATLC WATERS THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BEING SUPPORTED
BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
AND A RIDGE COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W
TO 26N40W TO 28N52W. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 05N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
70W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN WATERS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT HINDERS
CONVECTION...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 09N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W 06N50W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W AND FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH ALONG A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BASE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE ALONG
WITH MOIST AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
90W...INCLUDING NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...HOWEVER DEVOID OF CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N TO 21N
W OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BULGE OF MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SW N ATLC WATERS THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BEING SUPPORTED
BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
AND A RIDGE COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W
TO 26N40W TO 28N52W. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 05N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
70W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN WATERS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT HINDERS
CONVECTION...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 09N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W 06N50W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W AND FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH ALONG A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BASE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE ALONG
WITH MOIST AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
90W...INCLUDING NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...HOWEVER DEVOID OF CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N TO 21N
W OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BULGE OF MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SW N ATLC WATERS THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BEING SUPPORTED
BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
AND A RIDGE COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W
TO 26N40W TO 28N52W. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACPN50 PHFO 011745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

AG






000
ACPN50 PHFO 011745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

AG





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011608
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 95W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 104W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 112W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 124W MOVING W 10-15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 135W MOVING W 10-15 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 09N87.5W TO 06N94.5W TO 05N108W TO 08N121W TO 08N136W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 04N80W TO 13N105W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...ASSOCIATED WITH
SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS N
AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED LARGE
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE UPPER LEVELS NEAR
26N123W AND IS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUALLY BECOMING ELONGATED SE
TO NW IN TIME...WITH A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SE ACROSS
THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO MEXICO NEAR 20N100W.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL S THROUGH SW OF THE
CYCLONE...FROM 12N-20N BEGINNING S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO
ALONG 120W...TURNING SE BETWEEN 120W AND THE MEXICAN COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE TO THE S OF 12N IS PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED
ABOVE BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS
CONVERGED DUE TO A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GENERALLY PREVAILS S OF THESE WESTERLIES...EXTENDING W TO E
ALONG 10N-12N TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT NW AND REORGANIZE INTO A NARROW TROUGH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...LEAVING VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC NEAR 48N134W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SW AND ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK SECONDARY RIDGE SE TO NEAR
26N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE MAIN RIDGE IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS S OF 25N AND W OF
127W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PREVAIL ACROSS SW PORTIONS FROM 12N TO 14N W
OF 138W. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FADE ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
AND W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
TO PRODUCE PULSING GAP WINDS FROM NW COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM 10N TO 12.5N
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING MODESTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWNWIND TONIGHT TO AROUND
94-95W...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT. ALSO...LOOK FOR
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
PRODUCE PEAK N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT N OF 14.5N
TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011608
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 95W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 104W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 112W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 124W MOVING W 10-15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 135W MOVING W 10-15 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 09N87.5W TO 06N94.5W TO 05N108W TO 08N121W TO 08N136W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 04N80W TO 13N105W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...ASSOCIATED WITH
SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS N
AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED LARGE
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE UPPER LEVELS NEAR
26N123W AND IS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUALLY BECOMING ELONGATED SE
TO NW IN TIME...WITH A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SE ACROSS
THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO MEXICO NEAR 20N100W.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL S THROUGH SW OF THE
CYCLONE...FROM 12N-20N BEGINNING S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO
ALONG 120W...TURNING SE BETWEEN 120W AND THE MEXICAN COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE TO THE S OF 12N IS PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED
ABOVE BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS
CONVERGED DUE TO A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GENERALLY PREVAILS S OF THESE WESTERLIES...EXTENDING W TO E
ALONG 10N-12N TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT NW AND REORGANIZE INTO A NARROW TROUGH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...LEAVING VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC NEAR 48N134W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SW AND ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK SECONDARY RIDGE SE TO NEAR
26N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE MAIN RIDGE IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS S OF 25N AND W OF
127W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PREVAIL ACROSS SW PORTIONS FROM 12N TO 14N W
OF 138W. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FADE ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
AND W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
TO PRODUCE PULSING GAP WINDS FROM NW COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM 10N TO 12.5N
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING MODESTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWNWIND TONIGHT TO AROUND
94-95W...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT. ALSO...LOOK FOR
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
PRODUCE PEAK N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT N OF 14.5N
TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011448
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 155.2E

ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.2
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 6 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011448
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 155.2E

ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.2
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 6 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011448
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 155.2E

ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.2
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 6 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011448
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 155.2E

ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.2
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 6 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit



000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ACPN60 PHFO 011200
TWSCP

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

THERE WERE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER /CPHC/ AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE 2015.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE CPHC WEB SITE AT...
WEATHER.GOV/CPHC

$$

CPHC HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ACPN60 PHFO 011200
TWSCP

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

THERE WERE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER /CPHC/ AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE 2015.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE CPHC WEB SITE AT...
WEATHER.GOV/CPHC

$$

CPHC HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT





000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 01 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL











000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 01 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL










000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 01 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL











000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 01 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL










000
ABNT30 KNHC 011152
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Tropical Storm
Bill.  Based on a 30-year (1981-2010) climatology, a named storm
forms in the basin in June about every other year, with a hurricane
forming once every 7 or 8 years.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
website of the National Hurricane Center:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=atl.

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Ana               8-11 May           60
TS Bill             16-20 Jun           60
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABNT30 KNHC 011152
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Tropical Storm
Bill.  Based on a 30-year (1981-2010) climatology, a named storm
forms in the basin in June about every other year, with a hurricane
forming once every 7 or 8 years.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
website of the National Hurricane Center:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=atl.

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Ana               8-11 May           60
TS Bill             16-20 Jun           60
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011132
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011132
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011132
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011132
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011128
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011128
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011128
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011128
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO LAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD.14N26W 10N28W 6N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W 15N71W
11N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...INCLUDING THE WATERS THAT SURROUND PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THE LINE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 14N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N33W TO 5N45W...AND TO THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 8N60W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 9N30W 9N40W 6N47W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM AN EASTERN
MEXICO/COASTAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT FLOWS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE 92W/93W DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND ACROSS ALL OF NICARAGUA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND BETWEEN
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT IS
COLD FROM 32N15W TO 28N28W...AND STATIONARY FROM 28N28W TO
28N40W...AND 27N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W
27N24W 25N40W 24N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N49W TO 32N54W...28N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO LAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD.14N26W 10N28W 6N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W 15N71W
11N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...INCLUDING THE WATERS THAT SURROUND PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THE LINE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 14N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N33W TO 5N45W...AND TO THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 8N60W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 9N30W 9N40W 6N47W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM AN EASTERN
MEXICO/COASTAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT FLOWS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE 92W/93W DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND ACROSS ALL OF NICARAGUA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND BETWEEN
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT IS
COLD FROM 32N15W TO 28N28W...AND STATIONARY FROM 28N28W TO
28N40W...AND 27N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W
27N24W 25N40W 24N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N49W TO 32N54W...28N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO LAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD.14N26W 10N28W 6N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W 15N71W
11N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...INCLUDING THE WATERS THAT SURROUND PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THE LINE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 14N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N33W TO 5N45W...AND TO THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 8N60W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 9N30W 9N40W 6N47W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM AN EASTERN
MEXICO/COASTAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT FLOWS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE 92W/93W DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND ACROSS ALL OF NICARAGUA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND BETWEEN
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT IS
COLD FROM 32N15W TO 28N28W...AND STATIONARY FROM 28N28W TO
28N40W...AND 27N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W
27N24W 25N40W 24N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N49W TO 32N54W...28N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO LAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD.14N26W 10N28W 6N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W 15N71W
11N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...INCLUDING THE WATERS THAT SURROUND PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THE LINE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 14N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N33W TO 5N45W...AND TO THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 8N60W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 9N30W 9N40W 6N47W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM AN EASTERN
MEXICO/COASTAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT FLOWS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE 92W/93W DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND ACROSS ALL OF NICARAGUA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND BETWEEN
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT IS
COLD FROM 32N15W TO 28N28W...AND STATIONARY FROM 28N28W TO
28N40W...AND 27N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W
27N24W 25N40W 24N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N49W TO 32N54W...28N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010901
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 155.5E

ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010901
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 155.5E

ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND THOSE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ONLY WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 10N28W 6N29W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N65W 14N67W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST
OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N73W IN HAITI...TO
15N75W AND TO 10N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 18N19W 14N19W AND TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM
9N30W TO 7N42W TO 5N53W IN NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 9N23W 7N40W
5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
28N/29NW BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND THOSE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ONLY WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 10N28W 6N29W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N65W 14N67W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST
OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N73W IN HAITI...TO
15N75W AND TO 10N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 18N19W 14N19W AND TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM
9N30W TO 7N42W TO 5N53W IN NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 9N23W 7N40W
5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
28N/29NW BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND THOSE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ONLY WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 10N28W 6N29W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N65W 14N67W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST
OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N73W IN HAITI...TO
15N75W AND TO 10N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 18N19W 14N19W AND TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM
9N30W TO 7N42W TO 5N53W IN NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 9N23W 7N40W
5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
28N/29NW BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND THOSE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ONLY WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 10N28W 6N29W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N65W 14N67W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST
OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N73W IN HAITI...TO
15N75W AND TO 10N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 18N19W 14N19W AND TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM
9N30W TO 7N42W TO 5N53W IN NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 9N23W 7N40W
5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
28N/29NW BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ABNT20 KNHC 010500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 010500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 010500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 010500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010244
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 156.5E

ABOUT  305 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  395 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  595 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT  780 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  810 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 22
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010244
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 156.5E

ABOUT  305 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  395 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  595 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT  780 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  810 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 22
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS POORLY
REPRESENTED IN LATEST DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W/101W FROM 09N TO 15N SHOWS UP
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. IT ALSO HAS A REASONABLE PRESENTATION IN GOES IMAGERY
AND THE POSITION MATCHES CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N
TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONED TO THE NW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W/126W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE IS
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE UPPER LOW. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT N OF THE WAVE. CONVERSELY DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IS ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE THE WAVE
REMAINS INDISTINCT WHILE EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...IT PRESUMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W/136W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N102W TO 07N105W TO 10N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE GULF. A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES
FROM THE MORNING INDICATED ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD
TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER
NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ...SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING WEAK LOW PRES
FORMING IN THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS POORLY
REPRESENTED IN LATEST DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W/101W FROM 09N TO 15N SHOWS UP
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. IT ALSO HAS A REASONABLE PRESENTATION IN GOES IMAGERY
AND THE POSITION MATCHES CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N
TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONED TO THE NW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W/126W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE IS
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE UPPER LOW. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT N OF THE WAVE. CONVERSELY DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IS ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE THE WAVE
REMAINS INDISTINCT WHILE EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...IT PRESUMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W/136W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N102W TO 07N105W TO 10N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE GULF. A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES
FROM THE MORNING INDICATED ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD
TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER
NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ...SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING WEAK LOW PRES
FORMING IN THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS POORLY
REPRESENTED IN LATEST DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W/101W FROM 09N TO 15N SHOWS UP
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. IT ALSO HAS A REASONABLE PRESENTATION IN GOES IMAGERY
AND THE POSITION MATCHES CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N
TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONED TO THE NW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W/126W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE IS
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE UPPER LOW. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT N OF THE WAVE. CONVERSELY DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IS ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE THE WAVE
REMAINS INDISTINCT WHILE EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...IT PRESUMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W/136W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N102W TO 07N105W TO 10N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE GULF. A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES
FROM THE MORNING INDICATED ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD
TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER
NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ...SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING WEAK LOW PRES
FORMING IN THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS POORLY
REPRESENTED IN LATEST DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W/101W FROM 09N TO 15N SHOWS UP
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. IT ALSO HAS A REASONABLE PRESENTATION IN GOES IMAGERY
AND THE POSITION MATCHES CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N
TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONED TO THE NW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W/126W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE IS
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE UPPER LOW. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT N OF THE WAVE. CONVERSELY DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IS ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE THE WAVE
REMAINS INDISTINCT WHILE EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...IT PRESUMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W/136W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N102W TO 07N105W TO 10N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE GULF. A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES
FROM THE MORNING INDICATED ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD
TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER
NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ...SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING WEAK LOW PRES
FORMING IN THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS POORLY
REPRESENTED IN LATEST DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W/101W FROM 09N TO 15N SHOWS UP
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. IT ALSO HAS A REASONABLE PRESENTATION IN GOES IMAGERY
AND THE POSITION MATCHES CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N
TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONED TO THE NW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W/126W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE IS
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE UPPER LOW. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT N OF THE WAVE. CONVERSELY DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IS ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE THE WAVE
REMAINS INDISTINCT WHILE EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...IT PRESUMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W/136W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N102W TO 07N105W TO 10N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE GULF. A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES
FROM THE MORNING INDICATED ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD
TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER
NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ...SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING WEAK LOW PRES
FORMING IN THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS POORLY
REPRESENTED IN LATEST DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W/101W FROM 09N TO 15N SHOWS UP
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. IT ALSO HAS A REASONABLE PRESENTATION IN GOES IMAGERY
AND THE POSITION MATCHES CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N
TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONED TO THE NW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W/126W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE IS
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE UPPER LOW. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT N OF THE WAVE. CONVERSELY DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IS ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE THE WAVE
REMAINS INDISTINCT WHILE EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...IT PRESUMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W/136W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N102W TO 07N105W TO 10N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE GULF. A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES
FROM THE MORNING INDICATED ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD
TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER
NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ...SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING WEAK LOW PRES
FORMING IN THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12N BETWEEN 74W-75W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 25W FROM 6N-
13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N61W OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W MOVING W-
NW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ACTIVITY OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W MOVING W NEAR 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N19W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N24W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG
5N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-27W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-41W AND FROM 50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
ENCOMPASSING THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE GULF NEAR
25N85W. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULAR AND NE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO COVERING THE SW GULF AND
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-27W W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST HAS
MOVED FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE S GULF. THE DIURNAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND AEROSOLS...NO CONVECTION IS
BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO
NE TEXAS THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU THEN
SHIFT FURTHER N TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY
THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING
THE S CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA COMBINED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-78W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER W
CUBA W OF 82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 12N75W THE GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN FRI
NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THU. THE
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WED AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND ARE
BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS N
AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN AND WILL
BE OVER THE ISLAND WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THU WITH SOME
CLEARING FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 31N74W COVERING THE W ATLC
W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 79W TO
OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 21N69W
AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N
BETWEEN 64W-73W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W TO
29N29W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 29N34W TO 28N39W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N47W 26N52W TO 27N57W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N48W AND EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N58W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF LINE
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N40W TO 22N60W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12N BETWEEN 74W-75W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 25W FROM 6N-
13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N61W OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W MOVING W-
NW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ACTIVITY OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W MOVING W NEAR 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N19W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N24W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG
5N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-27W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-41W AND FROM 50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
ENCOMPASSING THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE GULF NEAR
25N85W. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULAR AND NE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO COVERING THE SW GULF AND
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-27W W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST HAS
MOVED FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE S GULF. THE DIURNAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND AEROSOLS...NO CONVECTION IS
BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO
NE TEXAS THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU THEN
SHIFT FURTHER N TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY
THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING
THE S CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA COMBINED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-78W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER W
CUBA W OF 82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 12N75W THE GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN FRI
NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THU. THE
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WED AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND ARE
BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS N
AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN AND WILL
BE OVER THE ISLAND WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THU WITH SOME
CLEARING FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 31N74W COVERING THE W ATLC
W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 79W TO
OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 21N69W
AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N
BETWEEN 64W-73W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W TO
29N29W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 29N34W TO 28N39W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N47W 26N52W TO 27N57W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N48W AND EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N58W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF LINE
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N40W TO 22N60W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12N BETWEEN 74W-75W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 25W FROM 6N-
13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N61W OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W MOVING W-
NW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ACTIVITY OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W MOVING W NEAR 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N19W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N24W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG
5N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-27W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-41W AND FROM 50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
ENCOMPASSING THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE GULF NEAR
25N85W. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULAR AND NE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO COVERING THE SW GULF AND
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-27W W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST HAS
MOVED FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE S GULF. THE DIURNAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND AEROSOLS...NO CONVECTION IS
BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO
NE TEXAS THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU THEN
SHIFT FURTHER N TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY
THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING
THE S CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA COMBINED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-78W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER W
CUBA W OF 82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 12N75W THE GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN FRI
NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THU. THE
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WED AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND ARE
BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS N
AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN AND WILL
BE OVER THE ISLAND WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THU WITH SOME
CLEARING FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 31N74W COVERING THE W ATLC
W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 79W TO
OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 21N69W
AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N
BETWEEN 64W-73W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W TO
29N29W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 29N34W TO 28N39W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N47W 26N52W TO 27N57W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N48W AND EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N58W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF LINE
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N40W TO 22N60W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12N BETWEEN 74W-75W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 25W FROM 6N-
13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N61W OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W MOVING W-
NW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ACTIVITY OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W MOVING W NEAR 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N19W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N24W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG
5N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-27W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-41W AND FROM 50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
ENCOMPASSING THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE GULF NEAR
25N85W. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULAR AND NE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO COVERING THE SW GULF AND
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-27W W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST HAS
MOVED FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE S GULF. THE DIURNAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND AEROSOLS...NO CONVECTION IS
BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO
NE TEXAS THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU THEN
SHIFT FURTHER N TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY
THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING
THE S CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA COMBINED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-78W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER W
CUBA W OF 82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 12N75W THE GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN FRI
NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THU. THE
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WED AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND ARE
BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS N
AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN AND WILL
BE OVER THE ISLAND WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THU WITH SOME
CLEARING FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 31N74W COVERING THE W ATLC
W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 79W TO
OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 21N69W
AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N
BETWEEN 64W-73W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W TO
29N29W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 29N34W TO 28N39W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N47W 26N52W TO 27N57W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N48W AND EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N58W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF LINE
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N40W TO 22N60W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12N BETWEEN 74W-75W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 25W FROM 6N-
13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N61W OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W MOVING W-
NW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ACTIVITY OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W MOVING W NEAR 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N19W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N24W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG
5N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-27W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-41W AND FROM 50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
ENCOMPASSING THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE GULF NEAR
25N85W. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULAR AND NE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO COVERING THE SW GULF AND
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-27W W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST HAS
MOVED FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE S GULF. THE DIURNAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND AEROSOLS...NO CONVECTION IS
BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO
NE TEXAS THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU THEN
SHIFT FURTHER N TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY
THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING
THE S CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA COMBINED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-78W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER W
CUBA W OF 82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 12N75W THE GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN FRI
NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THU. THE
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WED AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND ARE
BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS N
AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN AND WILL
BE OVER THE ISLAND WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THU WITH SOME
CLEARING FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 31N74W COVERING THE W ATLC
W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 79W TO
OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 21N69W
AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N
BETWEEN 64W-73W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W TO
29N29W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 29N34W TO 28N39W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N47W 26N52W TO 27N57W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N48W AND EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N58W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF LINE
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N40W TO 22N60W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12N BETWEEN 74W-75W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 25W FROM 6N-
13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N61W OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W MOVING W-
NW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ACTIVITY OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W MOVING W NEAR 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N19W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N24W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG
5N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-27W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-41W AND FROM 50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
ENCOMPASSING THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE GULF NEAR
25N85W. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULAR AND NE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO COVERING THE SW GULF AND
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-27W W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST HAS
MOVED FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE S GULF. THE DIURNAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND AEROSOLS...NO CONVECTION IS
BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO
NE TEXAS THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU THEN
SHIFT FURTHER N TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY
THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING
THE S CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA COMBINED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-78W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER W
CUBA W OF 82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 12N75W THE GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN FRI
NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THU. THE
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WED AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND ARE
BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS N
AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN AND WILL
BE OVER THE ISLAND WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THU WITH SOME
CLEARING FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 31N74W COVERING THE W ATLC
W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 79W TO
OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 21N69W
AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N
BETWEEN 64W-73W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W TO
29N29W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 29N34W TO 28N39W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N47W 26N52W TO 27N57W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N48W AND EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N58W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF LINE
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N40W TO 22N60W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ACPN50 PHFO 302347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

AG





000
ACPN50 PHFO 302347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

AG





000
ACPN50 PHFO 302347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

AG





000
ACPN50 PHFO 302347
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

AG





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302329
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302329
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302329
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302329
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 302253 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANHOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
700 AM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

CORRECTED TYPOS

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 159.3E

ABOUT  235 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  415 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT  535 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  975 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.3
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 5
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 302253 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANHOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
700 AM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

CORRECTED TYPOS

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 159.3E

ABOUT  235 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  415 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT  535 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  975 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.3
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 5
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302216 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 16 UTC INDICATED A WEAK
PRESENTATION OF THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE...BUT THIS IS ALSO
INFLUENCED BY GAP WIND FLOW EMINATING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W/100W FROM 08N TO 15N. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF THE WAVE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12 UTC
SOUNDING FROM ACAPULCO TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE. THERE MAY BE
SOME INTERACTION WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REACHING
FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W TO 19N105W. CONVERGENT
EASTERLY WINDS AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W/124W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE IS
ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE
SW SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS RELATED TO
TRADE CONVERGENCE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE ITSELF...WITHIN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY POORLY DEPICTED IN
AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W/135W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 09N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS IS DIMINISHING. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE MORNING INDICATED
ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE
WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. DESPITE RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
THE TROPICS SOUTH OF 15N...CONVECTION IS MODEST DUE SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W. NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE.
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING IN
THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RELATED TO A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LOW N OF THE
AREA TO A POSITION FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302216 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 16 UTC INDICATED A WEAK
PRESENTATION OF THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE...BUT THIS IS ALSO
INFLUENCED BY GAP WIND FLOW EMINATING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W/100W FROM 08N TO 15N. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF THE WAVE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12 UTC
SOUNDING FROM ACAPULCO TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE. THERE MAY BE
SOME INTERACTION WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REACHING
FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W TO 19N105W. CONVERGENT
EASTERLY WINDS AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W/124W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE IS
ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE
SW SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS RELATED TO
TRADE CONVERGENCE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE ITSELF...WITHIN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY POORLY DEPICTED IN
AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W/135W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 09N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS IS DIMINISHING. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE MORNING INDICATED
ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE
WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. DESPITE RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
THE TROPICS SOUTH OF 15N...CONVECTION IS MODEST DUE SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W. NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE.
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING IN
THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RELATED TO A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LOW N OF THE
AREA TO A POSITION FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302216 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 16 UTC INDICATED A WEAK
PRESENTATION OF THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE...BUT THIS IS ALSO
INFLUENCED BY GAP WIND FLOW EMINATING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W/100W FROM 08N TO 15N. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF THE WAVE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12 UTC
SOUNDING FROM ACAPULCO TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE. THERE MAY BE
SOME INTERACTION WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REACHING
FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W TO 19N105W. CONVERGENT
EASTERLY WINDS AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W/124W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE IS
ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE
SW SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS RELATED TO
TRADE CONVERGENCE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE ITSELF...WITHIN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY POORLY DEPICTED IN
AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W/135W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 09N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS IS DIMINISHING. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE MORNING INDICATED
ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE
WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. DESPITE RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
THE TROPICS SOUTH OF 15N...CONVECTION IS MODEST DUE SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W. NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE.
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING IN
THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RELATED TO A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LOW N OF THE
AREA TO A POSITION FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302216 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 16 UTC INDICATED A WEAK
PRESENTATION OF THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE...BUT THIS IS ALSO
INFLUENCED BY GAP WIND FLOW EMINATING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W/100W FROM 08N TO 15N. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF THE WAVE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12 UTC
SOUNDING FROM ACAPULCO TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE. THERE MAY BE
SOME INTERACTION WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REACHING
FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W TO 19N105W. CONVERGENT
EASTERLY WINDS AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W/124W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE IS
ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE
SW SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS RELATED TO
TRADE CONVERGENCE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE ITSELF...WITHIN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY POORLY DEPICTED IN
AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W/135W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 09N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS IS DIMINISHING. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE MORNING INDICATED
ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE
WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. DESPITE RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
THE TROPICS SOUTH OF 15N...CONVECTION IS MODEST DUE SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W. NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE.
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING IN
THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RELATED TO A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LOW N OF THE
AREA TO A POSITION FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 16 UTC INDICATED A WEAK
PRESENTATION OF THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE...BUT THIS IS ALSO
INFLUENCED BY GAP WIND FLOW EMINATING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W/100W FROM 08N TO 15N. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF THE WAVE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12 UTC
SOUNDING FROM ACAPULCO TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE. THERE MAY BE
SOME INTERACTION WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REACHING
FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W TO 19N105W. CONVERGENT
EASTERLY WINDS AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W/124W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE IS
ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE
SW SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS RELATED TO
TRADE CONVERGENCE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE ITSELF...WITHIN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY POORLY DEPICTED IN
AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W/135W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 09N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS IS DIMINISHING. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE MORNING INDICATED
ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE
WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. DESPITE RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
THE TROPICS SOUTH OF 15N...CONVECTION IS MODEST DUE SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W. NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE.
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING IN
THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RELATED TO A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LOW N OF THE
AREA TO A POSITION FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 16 UTC INDICATED A WEAK
PRESENTATION OF THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE...BUT THIS IS ALSO
INFLUENCED BY GAP WIND FLOW EMINATING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W/100W FROM 08N TO 15N. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF THE WAVE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12 UTC
SOUNDING FROM ACAPULCO TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE. THERE MAY BE
SOME INTERACTION WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REACHING
FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W TO 19N105W. CONVERGENT
EASTERLY WINDS AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W/124W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE IS
ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE
SW SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS RELATED TO
TRADE CONVERGENCE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE ITSELF...WITHIN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY POORLY DEPICTED IN
AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W/135W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 09N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS IS DIMINISHING. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE MORNING INDICATED
ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE
WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. DESPITE RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
THE TROPICS SOUTH OF 15N...CONVECTION IS MODEST DUE SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W. NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE.
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING IN
THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RELATED TO A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LOW N OF THE
AREA TO A POSITION FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 302105
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
700 AM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 159.3E

ABOUT  235 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  415 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT  535 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  975 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.3
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 5
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

KLEESCHULTE
!--NOT SENT--!


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 04N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT AIRMASS...SAL
TRACKING AND PSEUDO-NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
25W AND 34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN AN ABUNDANT MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
66W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT N OF 16N WHERE A
PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 09N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N21W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W...RESUMING NEAR 07N31W THEN CONTINUING ALONG
05N41W TO 06N49W TO 08N56W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO
10N E OF 25W AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
35W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE EPAC WATERS SW OF GUATEMALA COVERS THE WESTERN GULF S
OF 26N. N OF 26N THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 21N TO 27N W OF 91W
AND N OF 28N BETWEEN SW LOUISIANA AND GALVESTON TEXAS. MAINLY
DRY AIR COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES OF
MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N84W SUPPORT SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF E OF 85W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W.
EXCEPT FOR SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS JUST
EAST OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND N-NW ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A BULGE OF
MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 65W. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1010 MB LOW IS
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W THUS ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH TSTMS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. ELSEWHERE
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE
TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THAT ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN WED ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE AIRMASS IN ITS
NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
DURING THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THUS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E PAC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N33W TO 28N46W TO 27N55W. RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 04N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT AIRMASS...SAL
TRACKING AND PSEUDO-NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
25W AND 34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN AN ABUNDANT MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
66W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT N OF 16N WHERE A
PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 09N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N21W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W...RESUMING NEAR 07N31W THEN CONTINUING ALONG
05N41W TO 06N49W TO 08N56W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO
10N E OF 25W AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
35W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE EPAC WATERS SW OF GUATEMALA COVERS THE WESTERN GULF S
OF 26N. N OF 26N THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 21N TO 27N W OF 91W
AND N OF 28N BETWEEN SW LOUISIANA AND GALVESTON TEXAS. MAINLY
DRY AIR COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES OF
MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N84W SUPPORT SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF E OF 85W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W.
EXCEPT FOR SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS JUST
EAST OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND N-NW ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A BULGE OF
MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 65W. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1010 MB LOW IS
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W THUS ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH TSTMS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. ELSEWHERE
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE
TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THAT ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN WED ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE AIRMASS IN ITS
NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
DURING THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THUS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E PAC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N33W TO 28N46W TO 27N55W. RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 04N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT AIRMASS...SAL
TRACKING AND PSEUDO-NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
25W AND 34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN AN ABUNDANT MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
66W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT N OF 16N WHERE A
PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 09N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N21W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W...RESUMING NEAR 07N31W THEN CONTINUING ALONG
05N41W TO 06N49W TO 08N56W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO
10N E OF 25W AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
35W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE EPAC WATERS SW OF GUATEMALA COVERS THE WESTERN GULF S
OF 26N. N OF 26N THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 21N TO 27N W OF 91W
AND N OF 28N BETWEEN SW LOUISIANA AND GALVESTON TEXAS. MAINLY
DRY AIR COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES OF
MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N84W SUPPORT SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF E OF 85W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W.
EXCEPT FOR SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS JUST
EAST OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND N-NW ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A BULGE OF
MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 65W. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1010 MB LOW IS
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W THUS ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH TSTMS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. ELSEWHERE
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE
TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THAT ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN WED ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE AIRMASS IN ITS
NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
DURING THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THUS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E PAC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N33W TO 28N46W TO 27N55W. RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 04N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT AIRMASS...SAL
TRACKING AND PSEUDO-NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
25W AND 34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN AN ABUNDANT MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
66W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT N OF 16N WHERE A
PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 09N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N21W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W...RESUMING NEAR 07N31W THEN CONTINUING ALONG
05N41W TO 06N49W TO 08N56W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO
10N E OF 25W AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
35W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE EPAC WATERS SW OF GUATEMALA COVERS THE WESTERN GULF S
OF 26N. N OF 26N THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 21N TO 27N W OF 91W
AND N OF 28N BETWEEN SW LOUISIANA AND GALVESTON TEXAS. MAINLY
DRY AIR COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES OF
MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N84W SUPPORT SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF E OF 85W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W.
EXCEPT FOR SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS JUST
EAST OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND N-NW ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A BULGE OF
MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 65W. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1010 MB LOW IS
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W THUS ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH TSTMS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. ELSEWHERE
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE
TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THAT ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN WED ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE AIRMASS IN ITS
NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
DURING THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THUS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E PAC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N33W TO 28N46W TO 27N55W. RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACPN50 PHFO 301755
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

AG






000
ACPN50 PHFO 301755
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

AG





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301755
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

AG






000
ACPN50 PHFO 301755
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

AG





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301744
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301739
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301739
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301707
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301707
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301707
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301707
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301707
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301707
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301551
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING S INTO TROPICS
INVOF 87W.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SE MEXICO EXTENDING S INTO TROPICS INVOF OF
98W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 12N INVOF 125W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 14N INVOF 135W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 04.5N98W TO 08N118W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 125W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N
AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO SPAN
NORTH AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS TODAY. A LARGE
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23.5N123W
COVERS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 130W...WITH A
NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
AND INTO W COASTAL MEXICO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE PREVAILS TO THE W CENTERED ALONG 139W...WHILE WEAK AND
ELONGATED RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE E OF THE CYCLONE...FROM A WEAK
UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N101W E-SE TO COASTAL COLOMBIA. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...W OF
110W...CONTINUES TO VENTILATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ
THERE. ALSO...SPEED DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONE IS AIDING IN SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION MOVING FROM
NW MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC NEAR 46N137W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE S AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL NW WATERS...THEN RIDGES SE TO NEAR 21N117W. THE MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS S OF 25N AND TO THE W OF
123W...WHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6-8 FT. EXCEPT FOR PERSISTENT
GAP WINDS NEAR THE COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS
BETWEEN NW COSTA RICA AND GUATEMALA. GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE
TO AT LEAST 25 KT AT NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES IN
THE LEE OF LAKE NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA. THESE 3 GAP WINDS ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MERGE
INTO A BROAD AREA OF NE TO E TRADEWINDS EXTENDING FROM 10N TO
13N FROM THE COAST W TO 92W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
WINDS PEAKING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT 25 TO NEAR 30
KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS FLUCTUATING FROM 7 TO 11 FT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MODESTLY THU.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301551
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING S INTO TROPICS
INVOF 87W.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SE MEXICO EXTENDING S INTO TROPICS INVOF OF
98W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 12N INVOF 125W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 14N INVOF 135W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 04.5N98W TO 08N118W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 125W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N
AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO SPAN
NORTH AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS TODAY. A LARGE
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23.5N123W
COVERS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 130W...WITH A
NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
AND INTO W COASTAL MEXICO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE PREVAILS TO THE W CENTERED ALONG 139W...WHILE WEAK AND
ELONGATED RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE E OF THE CYCLONE...FROM A WEAK
UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N101W E-SE TO COASTAL COLOMBIA. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...W OF
110W...CONTINUES TO VENTILATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ
THERE. ALSO...SPEED DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONE IS AIDING IN SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION MOVING FROM
NW MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC NEAR 46N137W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE S AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL NW WATERS...THEN RIDGES SE TO NEAR 21N117W. THE MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS S OF 25N AND TO THE W OF
123W...WHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6-8 FT. EXCEPT FOR PERSISTENT
GAP WINDS NEAR THE COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS
BETWEEN NW COSTA RICA AND GUATEMALA. GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE
TO AT LEAST 25 KT AT NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES IN
THE LEE OF LAKE NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA. THESE 3 GAP WINDS ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MERGE
INTO A BROAD AREA OF NE TO E TRADEWINDS EXTENDING FROM 10N TO
13N FROM THE COAST W TO 92W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
WINDS PEAKING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT 25 TO NEAR 30
KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS FLUCTUATING FROM 7 TO 11 FT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MODESTLY THU.

$$
STRIPLING



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301519
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
130 AM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM FORMS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.7N 160.0E

ABOUT  365 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT  230 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1030 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-
HOM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.0
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AT 3 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301519
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
130 AM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM FORMS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.7N 160.0E

ABOUT  365 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT  230 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1030 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-
HOM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.0
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AT 3 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301519
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
130 AM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM FORMS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.7N 160.0E

ABOUT  365 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT  230 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1030 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-
HOM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.0
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AT 3 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301519
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
130 AM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM FORMS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.7N 160.0E

ABOUT  365 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT  230 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1030 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-
HOM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.0
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AT 3 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301135
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301135
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301135
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301135
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301135
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301135
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MAETES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 301132
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 301132
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301130
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ACPN50 PHFO 301130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301130
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND THOSE
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N57W 11N59W 7N60W IN
GUYANA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 5N TO 18N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W 15N66W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N59W 22N65W 17N69W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N64W 20N67W 17N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 85W/86W...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL HONDURAS...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN COASTAL
AREAS OF COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA FROM
SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED STRONG IS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND
THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THAT PRECIPITATION MAY
BE MORE RELATED TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN GENERAL IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM 8N23W TO
6N24W TO 6N34W 4N36W AND 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 9N14W 8N25W 6N36W 5N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA OF THE U.S.A. TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO
26N96W OFF THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREAS FROM ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...
TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N86W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER AND LESS WELL-DEFINED
NOW THAN IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A
RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY FROM THE 23N86W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS
EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS ALONG 23N92W
18N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
IN THIS CLOUDINESS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N86W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 20N60W 26N57W.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 32N67W TO 16N69W TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 6 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND DAY. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24-
HOUR PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE REST OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM
31N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL
FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO
28N28W AND 24N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
27N40W 25N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 27N30W AND 23N43W. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N56W TO 27N64W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA...TO 21N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND THOSE
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N57W 11N59W 7N60W IN
GUYANA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 5N TO 18N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W 15N66W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N59W 22N65W 17N69W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N64W 20N67W 17N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 85W/86W...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL HONDURAS...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN COASTAL
AREAS OF COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA FROM
SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED STRONG IS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND
THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THAT PRECIPITATION MAY
BE MORE RELATED TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN GENERAL IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM 8N23W TO
6N24W TO 6N34W 4N36W AND 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 9N14W 8N25W 6N36W 5N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA OF THE U.S.A. TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO
26N96W OFF THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREAS FROM ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...
TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N86W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER AND LESS WELL-DEFINED
NOW THAN IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A
RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY FROM THE 23N86W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS
EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS ALONG 23N92W
18N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
IN THIS CLOUDINESS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N86W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 20N60W 26N57W.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 32N67W TO 16N69W TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 6 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND DAY. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24-
HOUR PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE REST OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM
31N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL
FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO
28N28W AND 24N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
27N40W 25N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 27N30W AND 23N43W. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N56W TO 27N64W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA...TO 21N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND THOSE
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N57W 11N59W 7N60W IN
GUYANA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 5N TO 18N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W 15N66W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N59W 22N65W 17N69W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N64W 20N67W 17N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 85W/86W...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL HONDURAS...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN COASTAL
AREAS OF COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA FROM
SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED STRONG IS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND
THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THAT PRECIPITATION MAY
BE MORE RELATED TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN GENERAL IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM 8N23W TO
6N24W TO 6N34W 4N36W AND 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 9N14W 8N25W 6N36W 5N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA OF THE U.S.A. TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO
26N96W OFF THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREAS FROM ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...
TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N86W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER AND LESS WELL-DEFINED
NOW THAN IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A
RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY FROM THE 23N86W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS
EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS ALONG 23N92W
18N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
IN THIS CLOUDINESS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N86W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 20N60W 26N57W.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 32N67W TO 16N69W TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 6 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND DAY. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24-
HOUR PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE REST OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM
31N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL
FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO
28N28W AND 24N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
27N40W 25N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 27N30W AND 23N43W. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N56W TO 27N64W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA...TO 21N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND THOSE
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N57W 11N59W 7N60W IN
GUYANA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 5N TO 18N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W 15N66W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N59W 22N65W 17N69W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N64W 20N67W 17N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 85W/86W...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL HONDURAS...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN COASTAL
AREAS OF COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA FROM
SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED STRONG IS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND
THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THAT PRECIPITATION MAY
BE MORE RELATED TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN GENERAL IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM 8N23W TO
6N24W TO 6N34W 4N36W AND 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 9N14W 8N25W 6N36W 5N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA OF THE U.S.A. TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO
26N96W OFF THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREAS FROM ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...
TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N86W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER AND LESS WELL-DEFINED
NOW THAN IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A
RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY FROM THE 23N86W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS
EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS ALONG 23N92W
18N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
IN THIS CLOUDINESS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N86W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 20N60W 26N57W.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 32N67W TO 16N69W TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 6 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND DAY. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24-
HOUR PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE REST OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM
31N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL
FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO
28N28W AND 24N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
27N40W 25N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 27N30W AND 23N43W. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N56W TO 27N64W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA...TO 21N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300910
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 86W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 85W-87W.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 94W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-11N ALONG 119W  MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG FROM 8N-14N ALONG 132W SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N83W TO 5N100W CONTINUES AT 6N107W TO 8N120W TO
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO
10N BETWEEN 116W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N121W
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDSS W TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 105W
AND 130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG THE SONORAN COAST
OF NW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
15N W OF 107W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 12N TO
20N...OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT
FROM E-NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300910
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 86W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 85W-87W.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 94W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-11N ALONG 119W  MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG FROM 8N-14N ALONG 132W SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N83W TO 5N100W CONTINUES AT 6N107W TO 8N120W TO
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO
10N BETWEEN 116W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N121W
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDSS W TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 105W
AND 130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG THE SONORAN COAST
OF NW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
15N W OF 107W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 12N TO
20N...OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT
FROM E-NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...AND THOSE
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 16 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N56W 10N57W 7N58W...
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N64W
10N65W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 83W/84W...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH
EASTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND CENTRAL COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE COASTAL
PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
REACHING THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA ALONG 10N
ALSO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 14N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 8N30W
5N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N18W 7N28W 5N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA OF THE U.S.A. TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N87W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY
FROM THE 23N87W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS
EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS ALONG 23N90W
21N92W 18N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS FROM 22N SOUTHWARD FROM
93W WESTWARD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N87W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY
FROM THE 23N87W CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 20N60W 26N57W.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 32N67W TO 17N69W TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 6 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND DAY. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24-
HOUR PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE REST OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN
CLUSTERS...WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 30N77W...29N71W...
26N75W...24N77W...AND 24N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 37N24W TO
32N26W 27N34W AND 24N42W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N40W
26N50W AND 27N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 28N32W...TO A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N40W...27N67W AND TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...AND THOSE
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 16 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N56W 10N57W 7N58W...
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N64W
10N65W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 83W/84W...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH
EASTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND CENTRAL COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE COASTAL
PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
REACHING THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA ALONG 10N
ALSO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 14N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 8N30W
5N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N18W 7N28W 5N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA OF THE U.S.A. TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N87W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY
FROM THE 23N87W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS
EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS ALONG 23N90W
21N92W 18N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS FROM 22N SOUTHWARD FROM
93W WESTWARD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N87W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY
FROM THE 23N87W CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 20N60W 26N57W.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 32N67W TO 17N69W TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 6 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND DAY. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24-
HOUR PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE REST OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN
CLUSTERS...WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 30N77W...29N71W...
26N75W...24N77W...AND 24N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 37N24W TO
32N26W 27N34W AND 24N42W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N40W
26N50W AND 27N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 28N32W...TO A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N40W...27N67W AND TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 300530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUN 29 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 300530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUN 29 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ABNT20 KNHC 300500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 300500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 300500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300416
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N WITHIN 45 NM
W OF WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 06N-11N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N-12N WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N90W TO 08N101W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N102W TO 10N105W TO 06N122W TO 08N132W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N
TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N122W EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH
W TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG THE SONORAN COAST
OF NW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM A 1025
MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 33N139W TO 22N121W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR
16N132W...BUT OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WED...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS MENTIONED BELOW.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED STARTING
TUE MORNING E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 84W...WITH 20-
25 KT WINDS FORECAST TO REACHING NEAR 94W-95W EARLY WED MORNING.
MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT FROM E-NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300416
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N WITHIN 45 NM
W OF WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 06N-11N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N-12N WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N90W TO 08N101W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N102W TO 10N105W TO 06N122W TO 08N132W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N
TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N122W EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH
W TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG THE SONORAN COAST
OF NW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM A 1025
MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 33N139W TO 22N121W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR
16N132W...BUT OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WED...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS MENTIONED BELOW.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED STARTING
TUE MORNING E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 84W...WITH 20-
25 KT WINDS FORECAST TO REACHING NEAR 94W-95W EARLY WED MORNING.
MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT FROM E-NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300024 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECT ISSUE TIME
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 18W/19W FROM
7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 55W/56W FROM
7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING
AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N59W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 35 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W S OF 17N TO
OVER PANAMA MOVING W-SW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 21N17W ALONG 12N21W TO 7N33W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS SE GEORGIA
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF 29N W
OF THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA.
THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 89W-93W. SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N
TO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS TUE WHERE IT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL W-NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTERNOON/
EVENING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER MOST OF CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. A
PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THE W
CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN 70W-73W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND TUE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THUS
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WED AND THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
ALONG THE COAST TO INLAND OVER SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM MIAMI FLORIDA ALONG 28N78W TO
BEYOND 32N75W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 27N78W
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ABOVE AND TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N75W TO TO 30N71W
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN
67W-71W. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 24N67W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W ALONG 29N50W THEN NW TO
31N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N47W AND A 1027 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N57W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 6N-28N E OF 50W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT N THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300024 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECT ISSUE TIME
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 18W/19W FROM
7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 55W/56W FROM
7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING
AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N59W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 35 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W S OF 17N TO
OVER PANAMA MOVING W-SW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 21N17W ALONG 12N21W TO 7N33W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS SE GEORGIA
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF 29N W
OF THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA.
THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 89W-93W. SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N
TO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS TUE WHERE IT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL W-NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTERNOON/
EVENING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER MOST OF CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. A
PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THE W
CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN 70W-73W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND TUE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THUS
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WED AND THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
ALONG THE COAST TO INLAND OVER SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM MIAMI FLORIDA ALONG 28N78W TO
BEYOND 32N75W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 27N78W
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ABOVE AND TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N75W TO TO 30N71W
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN
67W-71W. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 24N67W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W ALONG 29N50W THEN NW TO
31N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N47W AND A 1027 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N57W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 6N-28N E OF 50W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT N THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 18W/19W FROM
7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 55W/56W FROM
7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING
AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N59W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 35 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W S OF 17N TO
OVER PANAMA MOVING W-SW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 21N17W ALONG 12N21W TO 7N33W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS SE GEORGIA
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF 29N W
OF THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA.
THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 89W-93W. SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N
TO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS TUE WHERE IT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL W-NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTERNOON/
EVENING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER MOST OF CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. A
PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THE W
CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN 70W-73W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND TUE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THUS
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WED AND THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
ALONG THE COAST TO INLAND OVER SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM MIAMI FLORIDA ALONG 28N78W TO
BEYOND 32N75W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 27N78W
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ABOVE AND TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N75W TO TO 30N71W
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN
67W-71W. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 24N67W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W ALONG 29N50W THEN NW TO
31N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N47W AND A 1027 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N57W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 6N-28N E OF 50W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT N THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
ACPN50 PHFO 292340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUN 29 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS







000
ACPN50 PHFO 292340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUN 29 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 292340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUN 29 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 292340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUN 29 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS







000
ACCA62 TJSJ 292319
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 29 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 292319
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 29 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 292319
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 29 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 292319
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 29 DE JUNIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ABNT20 KNHC 292318
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 292318
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292318
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292318
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292115
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N E OF 86W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 06N-12N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N-13N WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 10N85W TO 07N90W TO 07N96W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 09N104W TO 07N122W TO 08N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED NEAR WHERE A STRING OF WEAK TROPICAL
WAVES INTERSECT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N123W EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE
TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG THE SONORAN COAST OF NW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM A 1025
MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 32N139W TO 22N121W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR
16N132W...BUT OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WED...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS MENTIONED BELOW.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED STARTING
TUE MORNING E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 82W...WITH 20-
25 KT WINDS FORECAST TO REACHING NEAR 94W EARLY WED MORNING. MAX
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT FROM E-NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292115
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N E OF 86W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 06N-12N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N-13N WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 10N85W TO 07N90W TO 07N96W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 09N104W TO 07N122W TO 08N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED NEAR WHERE A STRING OF WEAK TROPICAL
WAVES INTERSECT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N123W EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE
TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG THE SONORAN COAST OF NW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM A 1025
MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 32N139W TO 22N121W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR
16N132W...BUT OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WED...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS MENTIONED BELOW.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED STARTING
TUE MORNING E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 82W...WITH 20-
25 KT WINDS FORECAST TO REACHING NEAR 94W EARLY WED MORNING. MAX
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT FROM E-NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

$$
MUNDELL




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities